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04.13.2016

Ipsos Poll Conducted for Reuters

Core Political Data

2

These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted

for date

April 9-13, 2016

For the survey,

a sample of

1,680 Americans

including

732 Democrats

622 Republicans

189 Independents

18+

ages

w e r e i n t e r v i e w e d o n l i n e

3

The precision of the Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus the following percentage points

For more information about credibility intervals, please see the appendix.

2.7

for all adults

4.1

Democrats

4.5

Republicans

8.1

Independents

4

The data were weighted to the U.S. current population data by:

─ Gender

─ Age

─ Education

─ Ethnicity

Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls.

All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error.

Figures marked by an asterisk (*) indicate a percentage value of greater than zero but less than one half of one per cent.

Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding.

To see more information on this and other Reuters/Ipsos polls, please visit http://polling.reuters.com/.

5

RIGHT DIRECTION/WRONG TRACK Generally speaking, would you say things in this country are heading in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track?

25%

63%

12%

All Adults

41%

45%

14%

Democrats

12%

82%

6%

Republicans

14%

78%

8%

Independents

Right Direction

Wrong Track

Don’t Know

6

BARACK OBAMA Overall, do you approve or disapprove about the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? Is that strongly (approve/disapprove) or somewhat (approve/disapprove)? (Asked of those who selected “approve” or “disapprove”) Q2b. If you had to choose, do you lean more towards approve or disapprove? (Asked of those who selected “don’t know”)

Total Democrat Republican Independent

Strongly approve 25% 45% 6% 13%

Somewhat approve 21% 32% 8% 21%

Lean towards approve 3% 3% 1% 2%

Lean towards disapprove 3% 2% 2% 1%

Somewhat disapprove 14% 8% 20% 18%

Strongly disapprove 32% 7% 61% 40%

Not sure 4% 2% 1% 5%

TOTAL APPROVE 48% 81% 15% 36%

TOTAL DISAPPROVE 48% 17% 84% 59%

7

Please think ahead now to the next Presidential election this year, in 2016. If the 2016 Republican presidential primaries were being held today, for whom of the following would you vote? (Asked of registered voters, n=789)

Total (n=789)

Republican (n=575)

Independent (n=147)

Donald Trump 40% 44% 28%

Ted Cruz 29% 32% 23%

John Kasich 19% 21% 17%

Wouldn’t vote 13% 4% 31%

REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES

8

Please think ahead now to the next Presidential election this year, in 2016. If the 2016 Democratic presidential primaries were being held today, for whom of the following would you vote? (Asked of registered voters, n=849)

Total (n=849)

Democrat (n=635)

Independent (n=147)

Bernie Sanders 47% 49% 45%

Hillary Clinton 42% 48% 29%

Wouldn’t vote 11% 3% 26%

DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES

9

GENERAL ELECTION HEAD-TO-HEADS If the 2016 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were as below, for whom would you vote? (Asked of registered voters, n=1,424)

Registered Voters

Donald Trump (Republican) 34%

Hillary Clinton (Democrat) 43%

Neither / Other 15% Wouldn't Vote 3%

Don't know / Refused 4%

Registered Voters

Ted Cruz (Republican) 33%

Hillary Clinton (Democrat) 42%

Neither / Other 15%

Wouldn't Vote 6%

Refused 4%

Registered Voters

John Kasich (Republican) 31% Hillary Clinton (Democrat) 41%

Neither / Other 15%

Wouldn't vote 7% Don't know / Refused 6%

10

Weekly Presidential Approval

48%

47%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Jan

1-7

, 20

12

Jan

29

-Feb

4, 2

01

2

Feb

19

-25,

201

2

Mar

11

-17

, 20

12

Ap

r 1

-7, 2

01

2

Ap

r 2

2-2

8, 2

012

May

13

-19,

201

2

Jun

3-9

, 201

2

Jun

24-

Jun

30,

201

2

Jul 1

5-2

1, 2

012

Au

g 5

-11

, 20

12

Au

g 2

6-S

ep

t 1

, 20

12

Sep

t 16

-22

, 20

12

Oct

7-1

3, 2

012

Oct

28

-No

v 3

, 20

12

No

v 1

8-2

4, 2

012

Dec

9-1

5, 2

01

2

Jan

1-7

, 20

13

Jan

22

-28,

20

13

Feb

12

-18,

201

3

Mar

5-M

ar 1

1, 2

013

Mar

26-

Ap

r 1,

201

3

Ap

r 1

6-2

2, 2

013

May

7-1

3, 2

01

3

May

28

-Ju

n 3

, 20

13

Jun

18-

24

, 20

13

Jul 9

-15,

201

3

Jul 3

0-A

ug

5, 2

01

3

Au

g 2

0-2

6, 2

013

Sep

t 10

-16

, 20

13

Oct

1-7

, 20

13

Oct

22

-28,

20

13

No

v 1

2-1

8, 2

013

Dec

3-9

, 201

3

Dec

24-

30

, 20

13

Jan

15

-21,

20

14

Feb

5-1

1, 2

014

Feb

26

-Mar

4, 2

014

Mar

19

-25

, 20

14

Ap

r 9

-15

, 20

14

Ap

r 3

0-M

ay 6

, 20

14

May

21

-27,

201

4

Jun

11-

17

, 20

14

Jul 2

-8, 2

014

Jul 2

3-2

9, 2

014

Au

g 2

0-2

6, 2

014

Sep

t 10

-16

, 20

14

Oct

8-1

4, 2

014

Oct

29

-No

v 4

, 20

14

Dec

3-9

, 201

4

Jan

1-7

, 20

15

Jan

22

-28,

20

15

Feb

. 12

-18

, 20

15

Mar

ch 1

2-1

8, 2

015

Ap

ril 2

-8, 2

01

5

Ap

ril 2

3-2

9, 2

015

May

21

-27,

201

5

Jun

11-

Ju

n 1

7, 2

015

July

1-J

uly

7, 2

015

July

29

-Au

g 4

, 20

15

Au

g 1

9-

Au

g 2

5, 2

01

5

Sep

t 10

-16

, 20

15

Oct

ob

er 1

-7, 2

01

5

Oct

ob

er 2

2-2

7, 2

015

No

vem

ber

11

-17,

201

5

Dec

em

ber

2-8

, 201

5

Dec

em

ber

23

-29,

201

5

Jan

uar

y 1

5-1

9, 2

016

Feb

ruar

y 5

-9, 2

01

6

Feb

ruar

y 2

6-M

arch

1, 2

01

6

Mar

ch 1

8-2

2, 2

016

TOTAL - DISAPPROVE

TOTAL – APPROVE

For tracking purposes, approval ratings in the above graphic reflect weekly roll-ups of our tracking data (a 7-day period), rather than the 5-day period reflected throughout this topline document

All Adult Americans

11

Republican Primary Trend

32%

44%

21%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Sep

-15

No

v-1

5

Dec

-15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar

-16

Wee

k o

f 4

/6/2

01

6

Wee

k o

f 4

/13

/20

16

Please think ahead now to the next Presidential election this year, in 2016. If the 2016 Republican presidential primaries were being held today, for whom of the following would you vote?

Republican Registered Voters

Month of

Trump

Cruz

Kasich

12

Democratic Primary Trend

48%

49%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Sep

-15

No

v-1

5

Dec

-15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar

-16

Wee

k o

f 4

/6/2

01

6

Wee

k o

f 4

/13

/20

16

Please think ahead now to the next Presidential election this year, in 2016. If the 2016 Democratic presidential primaries were being held today, for whom of the following would you vote?

Democratic Registered Voters

Month of

Clinton

Sanders

13

Party Identification

All Adults: n= 1,680

16%

20%

9%

5%

18%

10%

12%

7%

2%

45%

33%

12%

9%

Strong Democrat

Moderate Democrat

Lean Democrat

Lean Republican

Moderate Republican

Strong Republican

Independent

None of these

DK

Democrat

Republican

Independent

None/DK

14

How to Calculate Bayesian Credibility Intervals • The calculation of credibility intervals assumes that Y has a binomial distribution conditioned on the parameter θ\, i.e., Y|θ~Bin(n,θ),

where n is the size of our sample. In this setting, Y counts the number of “yes”, or “1”, observed in the sample, so that the sample mean (y ̅) is a natural estimate of the true population proportion θ. This model is often called the likelihood function, and it is a standard concept in both the Bayesian and the Classical framework. The Bayesian 1 statistics combines both the prior distribution and the likelihood function to create a posterior distribution. The posterior distribution represents our opinion about which are the plausible values for θ adjusted after observing the sample data. In reality, the posterior distribution is one’s knowledge base updated using the latest survey information. For the prior and likelihood functions specified here, the posterior distribution is also a beta distribution (π(θ/y)~β(y+a,n-y+b)), but with updated hyper-parameters.

• Our credibility interval for θ is based on this posterior distribution. As mentioned above, these intervals represent our belief about which are the most plausible values for θ given our updated knowledge base. There are different ways to calculate these intervals based on π(θ/y). Since we want only one measure of precision for all variables in the survey, analogous to what is done within the Classical framework, we will compute the largest possible credibility interval for any observed sample. The worst case occurs when we assume that a=1 and b=1 and y=n/2. Using a simple approximation of the posterior by the normal distribution, the 95% credibility interval is given by, approximately:

15

How to Calculate Bayesian Credibility Intervals For this poll, the Bayesian Credibility Interval was adjusted using standard weighting design effect 1+L=1.3 to account for complex weighting2

Examples of credibility intervals for different base sizes are below.

SAMPLE SIZE CREDIBILITY INTERVALS

2,000 2.5

1,500 2.9

1,000 3.5

750 4.1

500 5.0

350 6.0

200 7.9

100 11.2

1 Bayesian Data Analysis, Second Edition, Andrew Gelman, John B. Carlin, Hal S. Stern, Donald B. Rubin, Chapman & Hall/CRC | ISBN: 158488388X | 2003 2 Kish, L. (1992). Weighting for unequal Pi . Journal of Official, Statistics, 8, 2, 183200.

Ipsos does not publish data for base sizes

(sample sizes) below 100.