2016 Presidential Election Cycle: In Review

Counties Count

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The 2016 Presidential cycle was among the longest and most raucous campaigns in history; despite the analytics and information available, it wound up being the biggest Presidential election surprise since Harry Truman defeated Thomas Dewey in 1948. In the aftermath, there were several takeaways from the election:

• Big data is only going to get bigger • Polling is not big data• Messaging is still critical to success• Swing counties in swing states can determine who wins a close election

Big Data is Only Going to Get BiggerWhen Barack Obama was elected President in 2008 and re-elected in 2012, he had the help of advanced analytics, or “big data,” to reach persuadable voters. With more data points uncovered, Hillary Clinton amassed even more voter information heading into 2016 (Forbes, August 8, 2016).

Conversely, Donald Trump, in an Associated Press interview earlier in the campaign (May 10, 2016), said data was “overrated” and he would win the election on the force of his personality. His comments were later amended, as the Trump campaign did use the Republican Party’s voter database.

In July 2016, the Trump campaign began using Cambridge Analytica, a British data company. A Bloomberg Businessweek article reported that Cambridge Analytica has information on 230 million adults in the U.S., with an estimated 4,000 data points on each of them (October 27, 2016). Among these data points:

• Retailer loyalty card purchases• Church attendance• Magazine subscriptions • Golf club/gym memberships • Charitable donations • Individual political “lean”

Forbes reported the Trump campaign had also used Deep Root, a political data company, that identified specific television shows to reach specific voting blocks, such as The Walking Dead for people concerned about immigration (November 22, 2016). Additionally, the Trump campaign plotted the location density of twenty different voter types over a live Google Maps interface.In the waning days of the campaign, as polls tightened, tailored TV ads were used in Michigan and Pennsylvania; Trump carried both states by a slim margin.

TAKEAWAYS FROM THE 2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: IN REVIEW

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Data from early voting and absentee ballots indicated that African American turnout of was lower than in 2012, while turnout among Hispanics and persons age 55+ increased. In the election’s final week, the Trump team visited Democratic leaning states such as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Minnesota and Michigan, while focusing on non-urban areas and targeting disgruntled voters, many of whom had not voted Republican since the 1980s.

Polling is Not Big Data Leading up to Election Day, virtually all polls predicted Hillary Clinton would win. Although Clinton did win the nationwide popular vote by a margin of 2.86 million votes, she lost the Electoral College. Many political prognosticators estimated Clinton’s chance of winning to be between 70% and 99% (Pew Research Center, November 9, 2016). Even Nate Silver’s fivethirtyeight, which correctly predicted the outcome of all fifty states in 2012, forecast a 71.4% chance of Clinton winning the Presidency on Election Day (Fast Company, November 8, 2016).

What happened? While polling collects information from a variety of sources including phone surveys, it is not predictive and may not be a representative sample. Polls measure voters’ preferences at the time of the survey, but opinions can change overnight. Consider the steady stream of events that could influence opinions:

• Debates• WikiLeaks• Fake news on social media • The FBI investigation of e-mail servers• Tax returns• Late night Twitter posts• Allegations the “system is rigged”• Uncovered videos and “hot mics” moments

The result? Polling data was often outdated before being released.

Another factor was that undecided voters overwhelmingly chose Donald Trump in the final weeks heading toward the election. The undecided voters in four states--Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida and Wisconsin, which voted for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012--were decidedly in Trump’s column in 2016 (Washington Post, November 17, 2016). The polls did not pick this up in time. In fact, according to Real Clear Politics, there was not one statewide poll, of the 32 taken in Wisconsin, which showed Trump leading, yet he carried the state by nearly 23,000 votes, a margin of 0.8% (Washington Times, November 9, 2016).

2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: IN REVIEW

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32 WISCONSIN STATEWIDE POLLS & ELECTION RESULTS

Poll Date Sample MoE Clinton (D) Trump (R) Spread

Final Results

RCP Average

Remington Research (R)

Loras

Marquette

Remington Research (R)

Emerson

Remington Research (R)

Monmouth

WPR/St. Norbert

Marquette

CBS News/YouGov

Loras

Gravis

Emerson

Marquette

Marquette

Monmouth

Marquette

Marquette

PPP (D)

CBS News / YouGov

Marquette

Federation for Children/POS (R)

WPR/St. Norbert

Emerson

Fox Business

Marquette

Emerson

Marquette

Marquette

WPR/St. Norbert

Marquette

Marquette

--

10/26 - 11/02

11/01 - 11/02

10/31 - 11/01

10/26 - 10/31

10/30 - 10/30

10/26 - 10/27

10/20 - 10/22

10/15 - 10/18

10/13 - 10/16

10/06 - 10/09

10/05 - 10/07

10/04 - 10/05

10/04 - 10/04

09/19 - 09/20

09/15 - 09/18

08/25 - 08/28

08/27 - 08/30

08/04- 08/07

07/07 - 07/10

06/22 - 06/23

06/21 - 06/24

06/06 - 06/09

05/10 - 05/12

04/12 - 04/15

03/30 - 04/03

03/28 - 03/30

03/24 - 03/28

03/20 - 03/22

01/21 - 01/24

11/12 - 11/15

10/14 - 10/17

09/24 - 09/28

08/13 - 08/16

--

--

2720 LV

500 LV

1225 LV

1172 LV

400 LV

1795 LV

403 LV

644 LV

878 LV

993 LV

500 LV

1102 RV

700 LV

677 LV

650 LV

404 LV

683 LV

665 LV

843 RV

993 LV

666 LV

600 LV

616 RV

1198 LV

1602 LV

1405 RV

922 LV

806 LV

803 RV

603 LV

803 RV

803 RV

--

--

1.9

4.4

3.5

2.9

4.9

2.3

4.9

3.8

3.9

4.3

4.4

3.0

3.6

4.8

5.0

4.9

5.0

4.5

3.4

4.3

4.9

4.0

4.0

2.8

2.5

3.5

3.2

4.0

4.2

4.9

4.1

3.5

46.5

46.8

49

44

46

46

48

46

47

47

46

43

43

48

45

44

45

43

52

45

47

41

46

43

46

47

49

47

47

47

48

50

50

51

47.3

40.3

41

38

40

42

42

41

40

39

42

39

35

40

38

42

42

38

37

41

39

36

37

31

34

37

35

37

38

38

38

39

36

35

Trump +0.8

Clinton +6.5

Clinton +8

Clinton +6

Clinton +6

Clinton +4

Clinton +6

Clinton +5

Clinton +7

Clinton +8

Clinton +4

Clinton +4

Clinton +8

Clinton +8

Clinton +7

Clinton +2

Clinton +3

Clinton +5

Clinton +15

Clinton +4

Clinton +8

Clinton +5

Clinton +9

Clinton +12

Clinton +12

Clinton +10

Clinton +14

Clinton +10

Clinton +9

Clinton +9

Clinton +10

Clinton +11

Clinton +14

Clinton +16

Source: Real Clear PoliticsSource: Real Clear Politics

2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: IN REVIEW

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Moreover, polling is not an exact science; not all likely voters are truthful when voicing their intentions and opinions. Polling, as a collector of information, is working to keep pace with technology and the mobility and time constraints of potential respondents. The American Association of Public Opinion Research, in a 2015 study, found two trends are causing unreliability with polling: the growing use of cellphones (and other technologies such as caller ID) and a drop in people willing to take surveys. A 2012 study from Pew Research found the average polling response rate was 9%, down from 36% in 1997.

The National Council on Public Polls says another factor is typically sample size; polls consist of small sample sets, with few exceeding 1,000 “likely” voters. Nonetheless, as Election Day neared, several nationwide polls had Clinton winning the popular vote by one or two points (Gallup, November 23, 2016). Clinton wound up winning the popular vote within that margin.

Messaging is Still Critical to SuccessAccording to Kantar CMAG, Hillary Clinton outspent Donald Trump in ad dollars by a wide margin and aired significantly more television commercials (Bloomberg BNA, November 17, 2016). Clinton’s and Trump’s messaging were also notably different. As Advertising Age reported, Clinton focused on attacking Trump’s temperament and his fitness for office with largely negative ads about the candidate (November 9, 2016). As Election Day neared, voters were already familiar with Trump’s comments and, in the end, that message seemed to have little impact.

Clinton’s messaging was not unified, and the slogan “I’m With Her” focused on the candidate and not the country. Clinton’s messaging varied on who she was addressing, e.g. immigrants, working mothers, the disabled, ethnic groups, etc. Often, her message ran counter to what voters wanted to hear, especially in the “Blue Wall” states of the Upper Midwest. For example, her support of trade agreements was exploited by Trump, and alienated many traditional Democrat voters in “Rust Belt” states.

By contrast, Donald Trump’s messages were fewer and simpler, with messages that focused on such issues as immigration, trade, national security, the economy, and the ”rigged” system (“drain the swamp”) among others. These ads resonated with frustrated and angry voters seeking change in Washington.

Gallup reported that Donald Trump used one constant theme throughout his campaign, “Make America Great Again,” looking at the country as a whole (November 10, 2016). This approach was similar to Ronald Reagan’s “It’s Morning in America Again” in 1980.

2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: IN REVIEW

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Swing Counties in Swing States Can Determine Who Wins a Close ElectionConsider this: with a total of 46 electoral votes, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, states that have reliably voted Democrat in recent Presidential elections, went for Donald Trump by an aggregate total of 78,000 votes. As the Washington Post noted, with over 137.1 million ballots cast, less than 0.06% of all the votes put Donald Trump in the White House (December 1, 2016).

Targeting battleground states has been a mainstay in political strategy since the 1992 election. In this election cycle, with more granular data available, “swing states” have been supplanted by “swing counties.” There are 3,143 counties in U.S.; we’ve identified twelve of them, from across the country, that played a key role in 2016 and may well do so again in future elections.

Florida: Pinellas

In Florida, the largest battleground state, one of the more important counties has been Pinellas, on the Gulf Coast. It is home to St. Petersburg and a terminus (along with Daytona Beach) of the important I-4 corridor, which separates Republican strongholds in north and southwest Florida from Democrat strongholds in south Florida (Tampa Bay Times, November 4, 2016).

The Miami Herald reported that since 1992, Pinellas voted Democrat in every election except 2004, when George W. Bush carried the county by .05% (200 votes) (November 9, 2016). Even though there are slightly more registered Democrats than Republicans, Trump carried Pinellas county by a margin of 5,500 votes (48.1% to 47.0%) in 2016. Pinellas was the largest county that Trump carried in Florida, a state he won by 120,000 votes. His anti-establishment message resonated in many suburban areas throughout the state, particularly with non-ethnic older voters.

Pennsylvania: Luzerne, Northampton and Bucks

Republicans carried Pennsylvania for the first time since 1988. Several swing counties that helped put Trump over the top: Luzerne County, Northampton County and Bucks County. In 2012, Obama won Luzerne County, home of Wilkes-Barre, with 51.7% of the vote and carried the state. Although registered Democrats outnumber Republicans in Luzerne by 43,000, Trump carried the county by a margin of 58.4% to 38.8%. According to the Wilkes-Barre Times-Leader, the vote differential of 26,000 accounted for 60% of Trump’s statewide differential of 44,000 votes (November 14, 2016).

State Margin of Victory

PA

WI

MI

Total

44,292

22,748

10,704

77,744

Source: CNN/Elections/Results

2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: IN REVIEW

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Northampton, an industrial county in coal producing eastern Pennyslvania, was the home of Bethlehem Steel until its closing in 2003. In 2016, Trump carried Northampton by over 5,000 votes, even though there are 27,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans (Pennsylvania Voter Registeration, November 2016). It was the first time a Republican won Northampton County since 1988 (Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, November 9, 2016). Northampton County has now sided with Pennsylvania in every election since 1952 (Wall Street Journal, November 8, 2016).

Adjacent to Northampton County is Bucks County, the fourth-largest county in Pennsylvania and one of the suburban “collar counties” surrounding Philadelphia. Similar to Northampton County, Bucks County was once reliably Republican, but voted Democrat in every presidential election since 1992. Unlike Northampton, in 2016 Democrats barely carried Bucks County as Clinton won by less than 3,000 votes. The Democrats’ margin of victory in Bucks County has been shrinking since 2008. Trump’s economic message, including his stance on trade, registered in these primarily non-ethnic and working-class areas.

Michigan: Macomb

Macomb, located just north of Detroit, is the third-largest county in Michigan. The New York Times said Macomb County is also the place the term “Reagan Democrats” was first used to define blue collar, white autoworkers (November 12, 2016). It was the largest of twelve counties in Michigan that Obama carried in 2012 and Trump flipped in 2016 (Detroit News, November 12, 2016). Obama garnered 52% of the vote in 2012 in the county; four years later Trump won Macomb County with 54% of the vote. Trump’s margin of victory in Macomb was 48,000 votes as the county reported a 4% higher turnout than in 2012. Trump won Michigan by 11,000 votes, the closest Presidential election in the state’s history, becoming the first Republican to carry the state since 1988 (Detroit Free Press, November 23, 2016).

Georgia: Gwinnett and Cobb

Georgia has been a Republican stronghold in every Presidential election since 1984. With nearby Florida and North Carolina becoming battleground states, the Clinton campaign felt they had a chance to win Georgia. Although Trump did keep Georgia in the Republican column, the second and fourth largest counties in the state, Gwinnett and Cobb, which Mitt Romney won in 2012, flipped to Clinton in 2016. Both counties are located in suburban Atlanta. Romney carried Cobb County by a 13-point margin over Obama in 2012, while in 2016, Clinton won Cobb county by a two-point margin (7,000 votes). Romney carried Gwinnett County by nine points over Obama in 2012. In 2016, Gwinnett flipped to Clinton, who won the county by six points. It was the first time Gwinnett voted Democrat since native son Jimmy Carter won in 1976 (AJC.com, November 9, 2016). The Atlanta Journal Constitution reports that voter turnout in both counties were above 75% (November 9, 2016). Both counties have become increasingly multi-ethnic with more rust belt transplants, and political pundits predict Georgia will become more of a battleground state in future elections (Atlanta Journal Constitution, October 19, 2016). In 2016, the six largest counties in Georgia were carried by Hillary Clinton.

2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: IN REVIEW

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Colorado: Arapahoe and Jefferson

Up until the 2008 Presidential election, Colorado had been a solid Republican state. Similar to other states, the change to voting Democrat was led by urban areas—in this case, Denver (Politico November 6, 2016). Arapahoe County, located in suburban Denver, was a swing county. Similar to the state, George W. Bush carried the county in 2000 and 2004. Barack Obama carried Arapahoe County by roughly 20,000 votes in 2008 and 2012. In 2016, Hillary Clinton, on her path to winning Colorado, carried Arapahoe County by nearly 40,000 votes.

Jefferson County, also in the Denver metro area, has voted the same way as neighboring Arapahoe in each of past ten elections. Clinton carried Jefferson County by a margin of 22,000 votes. Politico reports that both Arapahoe and Jefferson Counties have more unaffiliated voters than either registered Democrats or Republicans (August 8, 2016). According to Politico, the growth in the Hispanic population in both counties, and in Colorado overall, has helped Democrats (Augsut 8, 2016).

New Hampshire: Hillsborough and Rockingham

New Hampshire was the only battleground state in the Northeast. Clinton carried the state with fewer than 3,000 votes. The two most competitive (and coveted) counties in New Hampshire have been Hillsborough and Rockingham (Politico, November 6, 2016). Both counties border Massachusetts, are part of the Boston television market, and, combined, account for over half of the state’s total population. Additionally, Hillsborough and Rockingham have more undeclared voters than either registered Democrats or registered Republicans (State of New Hampshire). Politico reported that George W. Bush carried Hillsborough (the home of Manchester and Nashua) in both the 2000 and 2004 elections (November 6, 2016). Barack Obama carried the county in 2008 and won by 3,000 votes in 2012. In 2016, Donald Trump edged out Hillary Clinton by a margin of under 500 votes.

George W. Bush also carried Rockingham County in 2000 and 2004. Barack Obama carried the county in 2008, but Rockingham flipped to Romney, who won by five points in 2012 (Politico, August 8, 2016). In 2016, Donald Trump carried Rockingham County by a six-point margin (over 10,000 votes).

Virginia: Loudoun

Virginia’s Loudoun is the third-most populous county in the state. It has seen its population more than double since 2000, with an estimated 375,000 inhabitants in 2015 (StatChatVA.org, January 27, 2016). The eastern part of Loudoun has become popular with government workers and defense contractors commuting from Washington, DC. The western portion of Loudoun is more rural than suburban. According to the Census Bureau, Loudoun has the highest median household income ($125,003 in 2015) of any county in the U.S. with a population of 65,000 or higher. Loudoun has become more diversified with Hispanics and Asian Americans accounting for over 25% of the population.

2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: IN REVIEW

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According to the Census Bureau, over 60% of the population age 25+ have earned a bachelor’s degree or higher, the fifth highest of any U.S. county with a population of 65,000 or higher. The county has voted Republican in every election from 1968 to 2004. Barack Obama carried Loudoun County (and Virginia) in 2008 and 2012. Similar to other counties in northeast Virginia (Fairfax and Prince William), Loudoun remained blue in 2016 as Hillary Clinton carried the county by 30,000 votes.

2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: IN REVIEW

10 2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: IN REVIEW

What the Future HoldsWhile the 2016 Presidential campaign was unprecedented, there are some lessons learned that will shape advertising and messaging strategies in upcoming election cycles:

• Expect polling results to improve with response rates to be released in “real time” to stay relevant.

• Big data will get even bigger and more fine-tuned as candidates use data scientists to analyze more information producing more accurate results. The use of more data will enable candidates to geo target voters more effectively.

• Television remains an important ad medium for political marketers, but messages need to be consistent and simple.

One final observation when it comes to Presidential races in particular: there will be more battleground states in 2020, with Michigan, Pennsylvania and Georgia turning “purple.” The result will be targeting the swing suburban counties in these new swing states. The counties surrounding Philadelphia, Detroit and Atlanta are now as important as suburban Denver, Boston (southern New Hampshire), Tampa and Washington, DC (northern Virginia) counties.

By using local cable television, candidates can reach voters at the county level and even more precisely with an impactful television message. As we saw in 2016, less than 0.1% of all the votes cast determined the results of three states that may have decided the election. The granularity of those 2016 results will not be lost on future candidates.

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The political ad numbers reflect the broader trend… the use of

data to target audience segments in media is taking over.

-Ad Age, January 3, 2017

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Article: Data-Driven Targeting Creates Huge 2016 Ad Shift: Broadcast TV Down 20%, Cable and Digital Way Up