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2016 Florida Retail Report

2016 Florida Retail Report - floridatrend.com · Brickell City Centre Miami, FL Developed By: Swire Properties, Simon, Whitman Family Development Project Size: 5.4MM sf Retail Size:

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Page 1: 2016 Florida Retail Report - floridatrend.com · Brickell City Centre Miami, FL Developed By: Swire Properties, Simon, Whitman Family Development Project Size: 5.4MM sf Retail Size:

2016 Florida Retail Report

Page 2: 2016 Florida Retail Report - floridatrend.com · Brickell City Centre Miami, FL Developed By: Swire Properties, Simon, Whitman Family Development Project Size: 5.4MM sf Retail Size:

Table of Contents

Leading Trends ■ 8 trends impacting retail’s

future in Florida

■ 5 new developments that define retail in Florida

Macro Statistics ■ Nationwide Fundamentals

■ Statewide Fundamentals

■ Retail Property Clock

■ Statewide Comparison

North Florida ■ Jacksonville

■ Tallahassee

■ Panhandle

Central Florida ■ Orlando

■ Daytona

■ Central Florida

■ Port St. Lucie

West Florida ■ Tampa / St. Petersburg

■ Sarasota / Bradenton

■ Fort Myers

■ Naples

South Florida ■ Palm Beach

■ Broward

■ Miami-Dade

we’retailntelligencexperts

Page 3: 2016 Florida Retail Report - floridatrend.com · Brickell City Centre Miami, FL Developed By: Swire Properties, Simon, Whitman Family Development Project Size: 5.4MM sf Retail Size:

01

0302

04

0706

05

0809

value vs luxury

experience

e-commerce

tourism

food, food, food!

Value shopping is now for everyoneLow-income families plus higher-income shoppers

who’ve now developed a taste for discounts

discount luxury

“middle”

retailers

7.7%e-commerce

92.3%bricks-and-mortar

7.7%e-commerce

An “experience” means shoppersare meeting their higher-order needs

Premium goods,

experiential shopping

Commoditized goods,

Internet/impersonal shopping

In 1992 we spent $163 at grocers for every $100 in restaurants

Today we spend $96 at grocers for every $100 spent in restaurants

touch screen transformationMobile paymentsLoyalty rewards

Order-aheadCustom orders

merchandise with meaningNike’s #BetterForIt campaign focuses

on female empowerment

fan baselululemon creates its fan base

with free yoga classes

reality star treatmentConsumers want to be treated like

the stars they see in the media

9 Trends Impacting Florida’sRetail Future in Florida

High e-commerce Presentation• Computers, Books, Electronics

Low e-commerce Presentation• Furniture, Beauty/Cometics, Grocery

Tourist spending increaseshave been a bright spot in

consumer spending

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Florida Tourism Spending(In Billions)

Page 4: 2016 Florida Retail Report - floridatrend.com · Brickell City Centre Miami, FL Developed By: Swire Properties, Simon, Whitman Family Development Project Size: 5.4MM sf Retail Size:

Brickell City CentreMiami, FL

Developed By: Swire Properties, Simon, Whitman Family DevelopmentProject Size: 5.4MM sfRetail Size: 500,000 sfAnchors: Saks Fifth Avenue, Cinemex, Italian Food HallKey Tenants: Hugo Boss, Intermix, LuLuLemon, Suit Supply, Coach, Porsche Design

“Brickell City Centre will offer a unique shopping and dining experience for the greater Miami market. The exceptional selection of national and international retailers and restaurateurs will attract shopping customers from all walks of life.”

- John Lambert, EVP & Florida Retail Market Lead

“Disney Springs is also attracting first-to-market luxury concepts such as The Trophy Room, a high-end athletic boutique founded by the son of Michael Jordan, as well as first-to-market restaurants STK

and Morimoto Asian” .- Brandon Delanois, Associate

“The most exciting aspect of CityPlace Doral is the scale of the retail which will add a diverse offering of goods and services which has

always been missing in Doral”.– Scott Sheron, Vice President

“Tomoka Town Center is creating a new retail center of gravity for a market that extends 60 miles in some directions. The combination of luxury tenants in the Tanger outlets and value-oriented tenancy of the

Town Center is tailor made for today’s consumer.” - Justin Greider, VP & Florida Agency Lead

“Seminole City Center will not just fill a retail void in the market, the center will function as the downtown for the surrounding City of

Seminole”. - Andy Carlson, Vice President

Disney SpringsOrlando, FL

Developed By: Walt Disney, Inc.Retail Size: 500,000 sfEntertainment: Cirque De Soleil, AMC Theater, House of Blues, Co-ca-Cola Store, SplitsvilleKey Tenants: Anthropologie, Tommy Bahama, Uniqlo, Under Armor Brand House, Zara

Tomoka Town CenterDaytona Beach, FL

Developed By: Consolidated-Tomoka Land Company, Tanger Outlets, North American Development GroupProject Components:

o 300,000 SF Tanger Outleto 350,000 SF Shopping Centero 140,000 SF Sam’s Club

CityPlace DoralDoral, FL

Developed By: The Related Group and Shoma HomesRetail Size: 600,000 sfAnchors: Fresh Market, Cobb CineBistro, King’s Bowl

Seminole City CenterSeminole, FL

Developed By: North American Development Group, Primerica Group OneRetail Size: 424,192 sfAnchors: Earth’s Fare, Studio Movie Grill, Bealls, SteinMart, LA Fitness, HomeGoods, Ulta, Kirkland’s, PetCo, Five Below

mixed-use • large scale • urban • international appeal • indoor-outdoor experience urban • density • mixed-use • luxury

tourist driven • entertainment • luxury tenants value • residential growth • tourism • luxury • outlet

redevelopment • large scale • entertainment • de-malling • value

5 New Developments That Define Retail in Florida

Retail development is back on the rise in Florida in 2016, but this time around we are seeing a new kind of development: smart

retailers and developers are shifting their focus to the shopper by incorporating new experiences and the live-work-play mentality

into their assets. These five Florida retail developments illustrate how developers are successfully meeting the needs of today’s consumers.

Page 5: 2016 Florida Retail Report - floridatrend.com · Brickell City Centre Miami, FL Developed By: Swire Properties, Simon, Whitman Family Development Project Size: 5.4MM sf Retail Size:

NationwideFundamentals

6.00%

6.25%

6.50%

6.75%

7.00%

7.25%

7.50%

7.75%

8.00%

8.25%

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

MY'06 MY'07 MY'08 MY'09 MY'10 MY'11 MY'12 MY'13 MY'14 MY'15 MY'16

Rolling 12-Mo Volume(In Billions)

Average Cap Rate

U.S. rent and occupancy

U.S. capital markets activity

StatewideFundamentals

6.00%

6.25%

6.50%

6.75%

7.00%

7.25%

7.50%

7.75%

8.00%

8.25%

$1

$2

$3

$4

$5

$6

$7

$8

$9

$10

$11

MY'06 MY'07 MY'08 MY'09 MY'10 MY'11 MY'12 MY'13 MY'14 MY'15 MY'16

Rolling 12-Mo Volume(In Billions)

Average Cap Rate

$15.00

$15.50

$16.00

$16.50

$17.00

$17.50

$18.00

$18.50

$19.00

$19.50

87%

88%

89%

90%

91%

92%

93%

94%

95%

96%

MY '06 MY'07 MY'08 MY'09 MY'10 MY'11 MY'12 MY'13 MY'14 MY'15 MY'16

Occupancy

Rental Rate

Florida rent and occupancy

Florida capital markets activity

Across the United States, occupancy increased every quarter since 2009, and now sits at a robust 92.3%. Rents, however, have been slow to grow, and even with

stabilized occupancy over the last 6 quarters, rents have only risen 2% and are still 13% below the 2008 peak despite strong gains in dense, urban markets.

Both nationally and in Florida, the volume of properties sold has dropped over the past year, which combined with the continued availability of inexpensive capital, has

led to cap rates that are lower than the previous cycle in 2007.

Historic Power and Shopping Center Data From CoStar Property and JLL Research Historic Power and Shopping Center Data From CoStar Property and JLL Research

Historic Sales Data From Real Capital Analytics and JLL Research Historic Sales Data From Real Capital Analytics and JLL Research

$14.50

$15.00

$15.50

$16.00

$16.50

$17.00

$17.50

$18.00

89.0%

89.5%

90.0%

90.5%

91.0%

91.5%

92.0%

92.5%

2008 2010 2012 MY'13 YE'13 MY'14 YE'14 MY'15 YE'15 MY'16

Occupancy

Rental Rate

Page 6: 2016 Florida Retail Report - floridatrend.com · Brickell City Centre Miami, FL Developed By: Swire Properties, Simon, Whitman Family Development Project Size: 5.4MM sf Retail Size:

Leading markets have continued to see surges in demand from retailers. Rent thresholds

appear to have been reached, indicating these areas are peaking.

All secondary markets in Florida are now seeing recovery for the first time.

Retail property clock

PeakingMarket

FallingMarket

RisingMarket

BottomingMarket

Miami, New York City, Ft. Lauderdale, Palm Beach

United States, Orange County, Orlando, Washington DC

Atlanta, Naples, Central Florida, Tampa

Chicago, Panhandle

Philadelphia, San Diego, Ft. Myers, Daytona, Ocala

Jacksonville, Port St. Lucie

Dallas, Boston

Hawaii, Houston, San Fransisco, Tallahassee

Los Angeles, Sarasota

Page 7: 2016 Florida Retail Report - floridatrend.com · Brickell City Centre Miami, FL Developed By: Swire Properties, Simon, Whitman Family Development Project Size: 5.4MM sf Retail Size:

$5.00

$10.00

$15.00

$20.00

$25.00

$30.00

87%88%89%90%91%92%93%94%95%96%97%

Occupancy

Rental Rate

Florida market comparison

Historic Power and Shopping Center Data From CoStar Property and JLL Research

Every market in Florida saw increases in occupancy in the first half of 2016,and now occupancy is above 90%

in almost every market.

This increase in retailer demand is driving rent growth and making a full development pipeline

outside of South Florida a reality.

Page 8: 2016 Florida Retail Report - floridatrend.com · Brickell City Centre Miami, FL Developed By: Swire Properties, Simon, Whitman Family Development Project Size: 5.4MM sf Retail Size:

North Florida

Jacksonville

Tallahassee

Panhandle

Page 9: 2016 Florida Retail Report - floridatrend.com · Brickell City Centre Miami, FL Developed By: Swire Properties, Simon, Whitman Family Development Project Size: 5.4MM sf Retail Size:

Jacksonville’s recovery remains uneasy with some rental decline over the past year coupled with minimal occupancy growth.

JacksonvilleThe Jacksonville retail sector currently has 748,000 square feet under construction highlighted by The Strand & The Crossing, already 46.4 percent leased with expected delivery next summer. With occupancy up year-over-year to 91.1 percent, the infusion of new retail space might have a small squeeze on Asking Rates, currently at $13.24, but the outlook for retail still remains strong. Unemployment rose slightly to 4.7 percent, but still sits 40 basis points below the national average. Jacksonville has also been experiencing strong population growth and corporate relocations, partially due to the low cost of living in the area. Additionally, tourism revenues reached a record high in fiscal year 2016. With the state’s and region’s push to increase visitors, the benefits will be seen by retailers for the rest of 2016.

Submarket InventoryYE15 MY16 Change YE15 MY16 Change

Arlington 2,939,607 85.5% 88.3% 2.8% $9.32 $10.95 17.5%

Baker County 513,680 90.8% 92.1% 1.3% $10.26 $10.25 -0.1%

Beaches 3,342,573 91.4% 91.7% 0.3% $16.85 $17.31 2.7%

Butler / Baymeadows 1,961,955 90.2% 92.2% 2.1% $14.44 $14.06 -2.6%

Downtown Northbank 1,128,581 82.0% 84.4% 2.4% $7.82 $7.82 0.0%

Downtown Southbank 64,031 100.0% 91.6% -8.4% $25.00 $21.00 -16.0%

Mandarin 3,542,348 94.0% 93.9% 0.0% $12.51 $13.25 5.9%

Nassau County 2,351,868 86.3% 87.2% 0.9% $15.42 $15.19 -1.5%

Northeast Jacksonville 2,288,397 89.1% 89.6% 0.5% $16.73 $18.02 7.7%

Northwest Jacksonville 1,576,360 83.7% 88.0% 4.3% $9.59 $9.42 -1.8%

Orange Park / Clay County 5,610,846 90.6% 91.3% 0.7% $13.03 $13.81 5.9%

Riverside 6,228,722 89.4% 90.2% 0.8% $13.44 $13.33 -0.8%

San Marco 1,044,832 83.2% 85.2% 2.0% $10.27 $10.51 2.4%

Southside 7,953,242 91.1% 92.2% 1.2% $13.76 $13.44 -2.3%

St Johns County 3,705,071 94.7% 95.7% 1.0% $15.79 $16.03 1.5%

Jacksonville Market Total 44,252,113 90.6% 91.1% 0.4% $13.12 $13.24 0.9%Power Center & Shopping Center Market Statistics From CoStar Property

Occupancy Asking Rent

Rent and occupancy

Capital markets activityRetail market clock

Submarket activity

91.1%

AverageOccupancy

0.4%

$13.24

Asking Rental Rate

Consecutive Quarters

0.9%

PeakingMarket

FallingMarket

RisingMarket

BottomingMarket

Jacksonville

Historic Power and Shopping Center Data From CoStar Property and JLL Research

$12.00

$12.25

$12.50

$12.75

$13.00

$13.25

$13.50

$13.75

85%

86%

87%

88%

89%

90%

91%

92%

MY'11 MY'12 MY'13 MY'14 MY'15 MY'16

Occupancy

Rental Rate

5.5%

6.0%

6.5%

7.0%

7.5%

8.0%

8.5%

9.0%

9.5%

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

MY'11 MY'12 MY'13 MY'14 MY'15 MY'16

Rolling 12-Mo Volume(In Millions)

Average Cap Rate

Historic Sales Data From Real Capital Analytics and JLL Research

4

Occupancy Growth

Consecutive Quarters

2 out of 5

Rent Growth

Page 10: 2016 Florida Retail Report - floridatrend.com · Brickell City Centre Miami, FL Developed By: Swire Properties, Simon, Whitman Family Development Project Size: 5.4MM sf Retail Size:

Catchy wording about the statistics that show some level of analysis

TallahasseeTallahassee’s economy continues to grow, driven primarily by the stability from the high percentage of government and university-related employment. However, in the past year, the market has added 3,800 private-sector jobs, which bodes well for the overall growth and strength of the market. Retail space has remained well occupied in the market, and at 93.3% it is the highest in the state outside of Miami. Rents appear to have leveled out after taking a big hit over the past 2 years. The market has seen new product added in mixed-use projects near the university, which are driving a new class of retailers in the market and shifting traditional shopping patterns.

Submarket InventoryYE15 MY16 Change YE15 MY16 Change

Downtown Tallahassee 113,844 92.2% 98.1% 5.9% - - -

East Tallahassee 1,388,070 92.4% 92.1% -0.3% $18.14 $16.20 -10.7%

Gadsden County 310,393 77.6% 79.4% 1.8% $6.46 $6.46 0.0%

Jefferson County 118,074 98.4% 98.4% 0.0% $9.50 $10.25 7.9%

NE Tallahassee 598,508 98.3% 97.7% -0.6% $20.90 $20.02 -4.3%

Northeast Leon County 1,920,065 93.9% 94.9% 1.0% $14.40 $15.08 4.7%

Northwest Leon County 395,594 88.5% 88.5% 0.0% $7.86 $8.05 2.4%

NW Tallahassee 363,043 95.2% 90.0% -5.2% $11.56 $10.46 -9.6%

SE Tallahassee 472,110 89.0% 89.3% 0.3% $9.77 $9.78 0.1%

Southeast Leon County 909,216 96.3% 96.6% 0.3% $10.93 $13.24 21.1%

Southwest Leon County 124,279 79.5% 80.3% 0.8% $12.79 $10.87 -15.0%

SW Tallahassee 41,160 97.6% 100.0% 2.4% - - -

Wakulla County 155,243 92.6% 94.8% 2.3% $14.84 $13.58 -8.5%

West Tallahassee 1,100,036 94.5% 95.1% 0.6% $16.99 $17.02 0.2%

Tallahassee Market Total 8,009,635 93.0% 93.3% 0.3% $12.22 $12.14 -0.7%

Power Center & Shopping Center Market Statistics From CoStar Property

Occupancy Asking Rent

Rent and occupancy

Capital markets activity

Submarket activity

Tallahassee appears to have moved through the cycle quickly and is peaking as rents are near the highest in the state and have held flat.

Historic Power and Shopping Center Data From CoStar Property and JLL Research

Historic Sales Data From Real Capital Analytics and JLL Research

Retail market clock

PeakingMarket

FallingMarket

RisingMarket

BottomingMarket

Tallahassee

93.3%

AverageOccupancy

0.3%

$12.14

Asking Rental Rate

0.7%

$10.00

$11.00

$12.00

$13.00

$14.00

$15.00

$16.00

$17.00

86%

87%

88%

89%

90%

91%

92%

93%

94%

MY '11 MY'12 MY'13 MY'14 MY'15 MY'16

Occupancy

Rental Rate

6.0%

6.5%

7.0%

7.5%

8.0%

8.5%

9.0%

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

MY'11 MY'12 MY'13 MY'14 MY'15 MY'16

Rolling 12-Mo Volume(In Millions)

Average Cap Rate

Consecutive Quarters

3 out of 5

Occupancy Growth

Consecutive Quarters

4 out of 6

Rent Growth

Page 11: 2016 Florida Retail Report - floridatrend.com · Brickell City Centre Miami, FL Developed By: Swire Properties, Simon, Whitman Family Development Project Size: 5.4MM sf Retail Size:

PanhandleSubmarket Inventory

YE15 MY16 Change YE15 MY16 ChangeAvalon Beach / Milton 1,376,337 92.3% 93.2% 0.9% $11.65 $11.93 2.4%

Central Pensacola / S Brent 1,033,419 88.0% 90.3% 2.2% $10.32 $10.25 -0.7%

Downtown Pensacola 9,800 - - - - -

Ensley/ N Brent 924,618 85.5% 87.9% 2.4% $13.35 $12.66 -5.2%

Ferry Pass / N Pensacola 2,293,353 92.7% 93.6% 0.9% $14.09 $15.62 10.9%

Gonzalez / SW Santa Rosa 623,504 82.3% 82.6% 0.3% $12.53 $12.62 0.7%

Gulf Breeze 364,801 93.8% 91.5% -2.4% $19.18 $19.33 0.8%

Myrtle Grove / Bellview 190,679 93.3% 96.4% 3.1% $10.09 $10.12 0.3%

Navarre 1,100,390 93.2% 96.5% 3.3% $14.79 $14.80 0.1%

Pensacola Beach 47,862 - - - - - -

Perdido 220,927 - - - $20.83 $20.48 -1.7%

Upper Santa Rosa County 50,000 - - - - - -

Warrington 325,720 93.4% 95.4% 2.0% $10.81 $10.61 -1.9%

West Pensacola 872,339 96.1% 97.4% 1.3% $8.16 $8.98 10.1%

Pensacola Market Total 9,433,749 91.2% 92.7% 1.5% $12.78 $12.77 -0.1%

Shopping Center Market Statistics From CoStar Property

Occupancy Asking Rent

Rent and occupancy Submarket activity

The Panhandle has had over a year of consistent improvement.

Historic Power and Shopping Center Data From CoStar Property and JLL Research

Retail market clock

PeakingMarket

FallingMarket

RisingMarket

BottomingMarket

Panhandle

92.7%

AverageOccupancy

1.5%

$12.77

Asking Rental Rate

0.1%

$11.50

$11.75

$12.00

$12.25

$12.50

$12.75

$13.00

87%

88%

89%

90%

91%

92%

93%

MY '11 MY'12 MY'13 MY'14 MY'15 MY'16

Occupancy

Rental Rate

Consecutive Quarters

6

Occupancy Growth

Consecutive Quarters

3 out of 4

Rent Growth

=

Page 12: 2016 Florida Retail Report - floridatrend.com · Brickell City Centre Miami, FL Developed By: Swire Properties, Simon, Whitman Family Development Project Size: 5.4MM sf Retail Size:

Central Florida

■ Orlando

■ Daytona

■ Central Florida

■ Port St. Lucie

Page 13: 2016 Florida Retail Report - floridatrend.com · Brickell City Centre Miami, FL Developed By: Swire Properties, Simon, Whitman Family Development Project Size: 5.4MM sf Retail Size:

Orlando

PeakingMarket

FallingMarket

RisingMarket

BottomingMarket

OrlandoOrlando ranks 2nd in forecasted population growth among Florida’s major markets with an estimated influx of 60,000 new residents by the end of 2016. Accompanied by a record 66.0 million visitors in 2015 (a 3.0 million increase from the year prior) the retail sector will continue to see growth to match the increase in new residents and visitors to the area. The retail trade sector reported a 3.5% increase in year-over-year job growth while the unemployment rate for Orlando MSA dipped to 4.6%, down 60 basis points from a year ago. On the back of increasing visitor numbers and strong population growth, Orlando’s retail market should continue being a bright spot within the state.

Submarket InventoryYE15 MY16 Change YE15 MY16 Change

436 Corridor 4,794,758 94.0% 94.7% 0.7% $15.57 $14.40 -7.5%

Altamonte / Douglas 2,349,456 86.3% 85.1% -1.2% $15.00 $16.29 8.5%

Apopka 1,564,928 93.8% 94.4% 0.6% $13.30 $15.31 15.1%

Casselberry 3,684,450 91.5% 92.4% 0.9% $15.74 $16.12 2.4%

Downtown 12,121 - - - - - -

Kissimmee 3,615,965 93.3% 94.4% 1.1% $17.49 $15.80 -9.7%

Lake Mary 2,288,430 94.0% 94.0% 0.0% $13.61 $15.93 17.1%

Lee Road 492,076 73.5% 76.1% 2.6% $10.74 $10.76 0.2%

Longwood 959,661 88.7% 88.7% 0.0% $8.66 $8.79 1.5%

Maitland 693,744 92.5% 92.0% -0.5% $15.98 $15.96 -0.2%

Maitland Center 1,387,148 93.8% 94.9% 1.1% $15.74 $16.33 3.8%

Metro West 1,229,460 96.1% 96.6% 0.5% $19.34 $20.31 5.0%

Orlando Airport 274,884 65.4% 92.7% 27.3% $21.76 $18.00 -17.3%

Orlando Central Park 3,487,909 92.0% 92.5% 0.5% $13.50 $14.24 5.5%

Sanford 2,004,116 93.2% 94.2% 1.0% $12.58 $16.39 30.3%

South Orange 1,228,667 95.4% 95.8% 0.4% $17.12 $17.57 2.6%

Tourist Corridor 6,270,540 90.1% 90.5% 0.4% $20.23 $19.18 -5.2%

University 325,380 88.9% 92.2% 3.3% $20.77 $22.75 9.5%

University Research 257,120 93.9% 93.9% 0.0% $20.00 $20.00 0.0%

West Colonial 5,795,943 89.6% 87.3% -2.3% $10.12 $9.89 -2.3%

West University 2,773,595 94.1% 95.0% 0.9% $17.95 $18.96 5.6%

Winter Park 1,163,338 86.5% 86.1% -0.3% $18.01 $18.28 1.5%

Orlando Market Total 46,653,689 90.7% 91.4% 0.7% $14.17 $14.44 1.9%Power Center & Shopping Center Market Statistics From CoStar Property

Occupancy Asking Rent

Rent and occupancy

Capital markets activityRetail market clock

Submarket activity

Orlando felt broad-based rent recovery for the first time in the cycle driven by demand in traditional suburban markets.

Historic Power and Shopping Center Data From CoStar Property and JLL Research

Historic Sales Data From Real Capital Analytics and JLL Research

91.4%

AverageOccupancy

$14.44

Asking Rental Rate

1.9%

0.7%

$13.50

$14.00

$14.50

$15.00

$15.50

$16.00

87%

88%

89%

90%

91%

92%

MY '11 MY'12 MY'13 MY'14 MY'15 MY'16

Occupancy

Rental Rate

6.5%

7.0%

7.5%

8.0%

8.5%

9.0%

9.5%

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

MY'11 MY'12 MY'13 MY'14 MY'15 MY'16

Rolling 12-Mo Volume(In Millions)

Average Cap Rate

Consecutive Quarters

6 out of 7Occupancy Growth

Consecutive Quarters

2

Rent Growth

Page 14: 2016 Florida Retail Report - floridatrend.com · Brickell City Centre Miami, FL Developed By: Swire Properties, Simon, Whitman Family Development Project Size: 5.4MM sf Retail Size:

DaytonaSubmarket Inventory

YE15 MY16 Change YE15 MY16 ChangeCoastal Daytona Beach 561,953 85.6% 88.6% 3.0% $12.79 $12.80 0.0%

De Land 1,339,952 84.2% 82.0% -2.1% $10.86 $10.11 -6.9%

Deltona 525,509 93.4% 90.9% -2.5% $15.34 $12.35 -19.5%

Downtown Daytona Beach 1,412,352 86.1% 87.9% 1.8% $12.23 $14.26 16.6%

North Daytona Beach 1,076,875 96.9% 92.6% -4.3% $17.96 $17.61 -1.9%

NW Volusia County 1,891,548 90.5% 93.3% 2.8% $11.52 $11.73 1.8%

Ormond Beach 2,006,075 90.4% 90.4% -0.1% $14.09 $12.42 -11.8%

SE Volusia County 6,878 - - - - - -

South Beach Cities 2,303,088 85.5% 88.2% 2.6% $11.69 $12.68 8.4%

South Daytona Beach 2,149,265 86.4% 92.0% 5.7% $11.96 $17.27 44.4%

Daytona Market Total 13,273,495 88.4% 89.8% 1.4% $13.32 $13.57 1.8% Power Center & Shopping Center Market Statistics From CoStar Property

Occupancy Asking Rent

Rent and occupancy

Capital markets activity

Submarket activity

Daytona has finally started to build some momentum with 4 consecutive quarters of both rent and occupancy growth.

Historic Power and Shopping Center Data From CoStar Property and JLL Research

Historic Sales Data From Real Capital Analytics and JLL Research

AverageOccupancy

Asking Rental Rate

Retail market clock

PeakingMarket

FallingMarket

RisingMarket

BottomingMarket

Daytona

89.8%

$13.571.8%

1.4%

$11.00

$11.50

$12.00

$12.50

$13.00

$13.50

$14.00

$14.50

87.0%

87.5%

88.0%

88.5%

89.0%

89.5%

90.0%

90.5%

2011 2012 MY'13 YE'13 MY'14 YE'14 MY'15 YE'15 MY'16

Occupancy

Rental Rate

6.50%

6.75%

7.00%

7.25%

7.50%

7.75%

8.00%

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

MY'11 MY'12 MY'13 MY'14 MY'15 MY'16

Rolling 12-Mo Volume(In Millions)

Average Cap Rate

Consecutive Quarters

4

Occupancy Growth

Consecutive Quarters

4

Rent Growth

Page 15: 2016 Florida Retail Report - floridatrend.com · Brickell City Centre Miami, FL Developed By: Swire Properties, Simon, Whitman Family Development Project Size: 5.4MM sf Retail Size:

Asking Rental Rate

XX.X%

AverageOccupancy

X.X%$16.11

Asking Rental Rate

1.9%92.0%

AverageOccupancy

+0.5%

Central FloridaThe Lakeland area has been on the same growth path as its larger siblings, Orlando to the east and Tampa to the west, and has shown significant growth over the previous year, employment increased 3.5 percent, lowering the unemployment rate to 5.7 percent. With large distributions centers opening, Lakeland is an important recruiting area for companies and will drive growth as national groups locate here. A fast-expanding transport and logistics industry, anchored by the CSX terminal in Winter Haven, will power medium-term job gains. Longer term, fast population growth and proximity to Tampa and Orlando will favor the area as a transportation and logistics hub.

Submarket InventoryYE15 MY16 Change YE15 MY16 Change

Brevard County 13,047,336 86.2% 87.0% 0.8% $11.05 $10.96 -0.8%

Lake County 6,390,959 88.6% 90.3% 1.7% $14.00 $15.19 8.5%

Ocala - Downtown 212,682 87.2% 90.7% 3.5% $9.86 $9.44 -4.2%

Ocala - Greater Market 3,584,156 88.8% 88.1% -0.7% $13.32 $13.80 3.6%

Osceola County Outlier 13,047,336 92.1% 93.0% 0.9% $19.28 $20.37 5.6%

Polk County 11,899,223 91.2% 92.3% 1.1% $13.22 $13.01 -1.6%

SE Orange County Outlier 722,660 96.7% 96.7% -0.1% $19.98 $19.34 -3.2%

SW Orange County Outlier 7,416,718 92.8% 94.1% 1.3% $18.89 $22.76 20.5%

West Seminold Outlier 1,510,951 87.7% 89.8% 2.1% $14.74 $14.79 0.4%

Central Florida Market Total 57,832,021 90.0% 91.0% 1.0% $15.03 $15.86 5.2%Power Center & Shopping Center Market Statistics From CoStar Property

Occupancy Asking Rent

Submarket activity

Port St. Lucie

Submarket InventoryYE15 MY16 Change YE15 MY16 Change

Fort Pierce 1,576,107 89.9% 91.0% 1.1% $12.11 $13.14 8.4%

Martin 2,232,446 91.4% 91.3% 0.0% $13.94 $14.18 1.8%

Martin Inland 55,206 - - - $20.63 $20.00 -3.1%

Port St Lucie 5,003,236 90.0% 90.3% 0.3% $15.14 $15.16 0.2%

St Lucie Coastal 80,786 94.1% 94.1% 0.0% $16.00 $16.00 0.0%

St Lucie Inland 2,172,284 91.5% 95.4% 3.9% $19.73 $20.58 4.3%

St. Lucie Market Total 11,120,065 91.5% 92.0% 0.5% $15.81 $16.11 1.9%Power Center & Shopping Center Market Statistics From CoStar Property

Occupancy Asking Rent

Rent and occupancy

Submarket activity

Central Florida

PeakingMarket

FallingMarket

RisingMarket

BottomingMarket

Retail market clock

91.0%

AverageOccupancy

1.0%$15.86

Asking Rental Rate

5.2%

Port St. Lucie

PeakingMarket

FallingMarket

RisingMarket

BottomingMarket

Retail market clock

$14.00

$14.50

$15.00

$15.50

$16.00

$16.50

$17.00

$17.50

89.0%

89.5%

90.0%

90.5%

91.0%

91.5%

92.0%

92.5%

MY '11 MY'12 MY'13 MY'14 MY'15 MY'16

Occupancy

Rental Rate

Page 16: 2016 Florida Retail Report - floridatrend.com · Brickell City Centre Miami, FL Developed By: Swire Properties, Simon, Whitman Family Development Project Size: 5.4MM sf Retail Size:

West Florida

■ Tampa / St. Petersburg

■ Sarasota / Bradenton

■ Fort Myers

■ Naples

Page 17: 2016 Florida Retail Report - floridatrend.com · Brickell City Centre Miami, FL Developed By: Swire Properties, Simon, Whitman Family Development Project Size: 5.4MM sf Retail Size:

Historic Power and Shopping Center Data From CoStar Property and JLL Research

Historic Sales Data From Real Capital Analytics and JLL Research

Tampa / St. PetersburgSubmarket Inventory

YE15 MY16 Change YE15 MY16 ChangeBayside 1,190,635 90.0% 94.3% 4.3% $12.32 $15.72 27.6%

Clearwater CBD 534,082 94.7% 96.0% 1.3% $14.55 $15.04 3.3%

East Tampa 1,190,635 95.2% 95.6% 0.4% $16.17 $15.75 -2.6%

Gateway 1,566,874 94.4% 97.2% 2.8% $13.05 $12.30 -5.7%

Hernando County 4,647,165 91.1% 92.6% 1.5% $10.53 $10.82 2.7%

Mid-Pinellas 6,239,662 90.2% 92.2% 1.9% $14.08 $14.86 5.6%

North Pinellas 7,769,445 91.2% 91.9% 0.7% $14.69 $15.20 3.5%

Northeast Tampa 5,608,120 94.0% 93.6% -0.4% $12.65 $13.10 3.6%

Northwest Tampa 9,896,728 91.9% 92.5% 0.6% $13.52 $14.92 10.4%

Pasco County 11,315,792 88.7% 89.7% 1.0% $13.60 $12.98 -4.6%

South Pinellas 7,327,404 90.4% 90.6% 0.2% $13.50 $12.41 -8.1%

South Tampa 1,632,416 94.0% 98.2% 4.3% $17.65 $18.76 6.3%

St Petersburg CBD 232,801 98.8% 100.0% 1.2% $12.27 $16.00 30.4%

Tampa CBD 299,734 - 59.4% - - - -

Westshore 2,466,764 88.7% 91.0% 2.3% $15.46 $20.30 31.3%

Tampa Market Total 61,918,257 91.9% 92.3% 0.4% $13.70 $14.20 3.5%Power Center & Shopping Center Market Statistics From CoStar Property

Occupancy Asking Rent

Rent and occupancy

Capital markets activity

Submarket activity

Tampa

Retail market clock

PeakingMarket

FallingMarket

RisingMarket

BottomingMarket

Tampa’s occupancy has been on an unmatched tear with 14 quarters of consecutive occupancy growth. Rental rates have finally started to catch up with state-leading 3.5% growth year-to-date.

AverageOccupancy

Asking Rental Rate

Florida and Tampa Bay continue to be important to retailers and landlords, thanks to population and job growth as well as the constant flow of tourists to the region. Some retailers are running into problems with limited availability in popular areas such as Westshore, Hyde Park, downtown St. Petersburg and Clearwater. Much of the existing available inventory is either outdated or in undesirable locations due to changing demographics. Limited new or renovated product is in the pipeline in these key areas and the new product has many retailers showing concern about rising rents. The Tampa DMA still shows opportunity for growth and the market outlook remains bright over the next 18 months.

92.3%

$14.203.5%

0.4%

$13.00

$13.25

$13.50

$13.75

$14.00

$14.25

$14.50

87%

88%

89%

90%

91%

92%

93%

MY '11 MY'12 MY'13 MY'14 MY'15 MY'16

Occupancy

Rental Rate

6.0%

6.5%

7.0%

7.5%

8.0%

8.5%

9.0%

9.5%

10.0%

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

MY'11 MY'12 MY'13 MY'14 MY'15 MY'16

Rolling 12-Mo Volume(In Millions)Average Cap Rate

Consecutive Quarters

14

Occupancy Growth

Consecutive Quarters

4 out of 6

Rent Growth

Page 18: 2016 Florida Retail Report - floridatrend.com · Brickell City Centre Miami, FL Developed By: Swire Properties, Simon, Whitman Family Development Project Size: 5.4MM sf Retail Size:

Historic Power and Shopping Center Data From CoStar Property and JLL Research

Historic Sales Data From Real Capital Analytics and JLL Research

$17.09

Asking Rental Rate

2.4%92.4%

AverageOccupancy

1.6%

Sarasota / BradentonSince 2010, job growth in Sarasota has outpaced that of the state overall by 390 basis points. Historically, Sarasota has been below the national and statewide unemployment levels, and while economic downturn hurt the area in a big way, unemployment in the area is still well below the state average at 4.2 percent. Sarasota has seen a number of new companies enter the area with businesses expanding, projecting continued job growth. Further, the population in Sarasota is expected to grow by nearly 7.8 percent over the next five years to 417,000 residents.

Submarket InventoryYE15 MY16 Change YE15 MY16 Change

Manatee 8,134,109 91.1% 91.4% 0.3% $12.22 $13.35 9.2%

Manatee Outlying 617,873 94.0% 97.1% 3.1% $16.45 $16.40 -0.3%

Sarasota 8,839,979 91.3% 93.9% 2.6% $21.98 $22.09 0.5%

Sarasota Outlying 2,656,227 87.6% 89.1% 1.4% $12.25 $12.10 -1.2%

Sarasota Market Total 20,248,188 90.8% 92.4% 1.6% $16.68 $17.09 2.4%Power Center & Shopping Center Market Statistics From CoStar Property

Occupancy Asking Rent

Rent and occupancy

Submarket activity

Southwest FloridaRent and occupancy

Capital markets activity

Southwest Florida has surged through the rise in the market and rents are stabilizing as occupancy is reaching maximum sustainable levels for an area with a significant volume of older product.

SarasotaPeakingMarket

FallingMarket

RisingMarket

BottomingMarket

Retail market clock

$12.00

$12.50

$13.00

$13.50

$14.00

$14.50

$15.00

85.0%

86.0%

87.0%

88.0%

89.0%

90.0%

91.0%

MY '11 MY'12 MY'13 MY'14 MY'15 MY'16

Occupancy

Rental Rate

6.0%

6.5%

7.0%

7.5%

8.0%

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

MY'11 MY'12 MY'13 MY'14 MY'15 MY'16

Rolling 12-Mo Volume(In Millions)

Average Cap Rate

Historic Power and Shopping Center Data From CoStar Property and JLL Research

$11

$12

$13

$14

$15

$16

$17

$18

86%

87%

88%

89%

90%

91%

92%

93%

MY '11 MY '12 MY '13 MY '14 MY'15 MY'16

Occupancy

Rental Rate

Page 19: 2016 Florida Retail Report - floridatrend.com · Brickell City Centre Miami, FL Developed By: Swire Properties, Simon, Whitman Family Development Project Size: 5.4MM sf Retail Size:

Historic Power and Shopping Center Data From CoStar Property and JLL Research

Asking Rental Rate

$18.39

Asking Rental Rate

3.8%91.2%

AverageOccupancy

1.0%

AverageOccupancy

Fort MyersFort Myers was one of the hardest hit areas during the recession, being amplified by the media’s constant portrayal of the area as ground-zero for the housing bubble. Fortunately, that is a thing of a past and the area is seeing a surge of growth, led by the housing market. Housing prices have surged 12.4 percent over the past year and over 75 percent in the past since 2012. Unemployment has dropped to 4.8 percent, lower than both the state and national averages by almost 100 bps. As both the population and tourist markets continue to grow, occupancy has increased to 88.3 percent, reflecting strong absorption of the product built at the peak of the last cycle.

Submarket InventoryYE15 MY16 Change YE15 MY16 Change

Bonita Springs 2,201,088 86.4% 87.7% 1.3% $14.65 $14.52 -0.8%

Cape Coral 5,320,658 87.0% 88.7% 1.7% $12.39 $11.72 -5.4%

Charlotte County 4,967,686 89.0% 89.4% 0.4% $12.46 $12.98 4.2%

City of Ft Myers 2,849,625 88.1% 89.3% 1.2% $8.48 $9.08 7.0%

Estero 628,653 90.6% 89.1% -1.5% $15.11 $15.86 5.0%

Lehigh 764,249 94.8% 95.8% 1.0% $13.04 $11.70 -10.2%

North Ft Myers 1,491,940 78.7% 80.1% 1.4% $11.31 $11.13 -1.6%

South Ft Myers / San Carlos 8,719,076 91.8% 93.5% 1.7% $13.68 $14.21 3.9%

The Islands 523,034 99.2% 99.9% 0.7% $39.25 $35.18 -10.4%

Ft Myers Market Total 27,466,009 89.1% 90.3% 1.3% $13.13 $13.20 0.5%Power Center & Shopping Center Market Statistics From CoStar Property

Occupancy Asking Rent

Rent and occupancy

Submarket activity

NaplesNaples and the surrounding markets have been propelled forward by the surge in luxury spending and in-migration of baby boomers. Naples population has grown 2.7% in 2014, making it the 10th fastest growing market in the country, and the 3rd fastest over the past five years. Population growth, coupled with the strong incomes has led to strong job growth, with Forbes citing Naples in the top 10 markets in the country, projecting 4.6 percent growth annually through 2017. The unemployment rate is one of the lowest in the country at 4.7%, which has pushed wages higher. Of the 10 fastest growing job markets in Florida, Naples is the only market with an average wage higher than $50,000.

Submarket InventoryYE15 MY16 Change YE15 MY16 Change

East Naples 2,226,538 85.0% 87.8% 2.8% $14.62 $14.39 -1.6%

Golden Gate 648,542 96.0% 95.0% -1.1% $12.36 $12.07 -2.3%

Lely 790,537 80.1% 78.8% -1.3% $14.00 $14.51 3.7%

Marco Island 761,270 95.0% 95.2% 0.2% $20.63 $22.33 8.2%

Naples 502,218 97.7% 100.0% 2.3% $22.13 - -

North Naples 6,509,153 91.6% 92.2% 0.7% $19.49 $22.26 14.2%

Outlying Collier County 401,188 88.3% 92.0% 3.7% $10.63 $11.25 5.8%

Naples Market Total 11,839,446 90.2% 91.2% 1.0% $17.70 $18.39 3.8%Power Center & Shopping Center Market Statistics From CoStar Property

Occupancy Asking Rent

Rent and occupancy

Submarket activity

Naples

PeakingMarket

FallingMarket

RisingMarket

BottomingMarket

Retail market clock

Ft. Myers

PeakingMarket

FallingMarket

RisingMarket

BottomingMarket

Retail market clock

90.3%1.3%

$13.200.5%

Historic Power and Shopping Center Data From CoStar Property and JLL Research

$15.50

$16.00

$16.50

$17.00

$17.50

$18.00

$18.50

$19.00

88.0%

88.5%

89.0%

89.5%

90.0%

90.5%

91.0%

91.5%

MY '11 MY '12 MY '13 MY '14 MY'15 MY'16

Occupancy

Rental Rate

$12.75

$13.00

$13.25

$13.50

$13.75

$14.00

$14.25

$14.50

84%

85%

86%

87%

88%

89%

90%

91%

MY '11 MY '12 MY '13 MY '14 MY'15 MY'16

Occupancy

Rental Rate

Page 20: 2016 Florida Retail Report - floridatrend.com · Brickell City Centre Miami, FL Developed By: Swire Properties, Simon, Whitman Family Development Project Size: 5.4MM sf Retail Size:

South Florida

■ Palm Beach

■ Broward

■ Miami-Dade

Page 21: 2016 Florida Retail Report - floridatrend.com · Brickell City Centre Miami, FL Developed By: Swire Properties, Simon, Whitman Family Development Project Size: 5.4MM sf Retail Size:

Historic Power and Shopping Center Data From CoStar Property and JLL Research

Historic Sales Data From Real Capital Analytics and JLL Research

Capital markets activity

$16.00

$16.50

$17.00

$17.50

$18.00

$18.50

$19.00

$19.50

$20.00

89.0%

89.5%

90.0%

90.5%

91.0%

91.5%

92.0%

92.5%

93.0%

MY '11 MY'12 MY'13 MY'14 MY'15 MY'16

Occupancy

Rental Rate

4.5%

5.0%

5.5%

6.0%

6.5%

7.0%

7.5%

8.0%

8.5%

9.0%

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

MY'11 MY'12 MY'13 MY'14 MY'15 MY'16

Rolling 12-Mo Volume(In Millions)

Average Cap RatePalm BeachPeakingMarket

FallingMarket

RisingMarket

BottomingMarket

Palm BeachContinued development of 800 new multi-family units in Downtown Palm Beach by the end of 2017 should give way for higher retail demand, particularly for major retail destinations such as CityPlace and Palm Beach Outlets. The downtown market continues to thrive with its upscale atmospheres, as does Boca Raton’s Mizner Park area. The county has a median household annual income of 10 percent higher than the state average at $52,200. In addition, the area has seen declining unemployment, which recently dipped to 4.2 percent, 100 basis points lower than this time last year and one of the lowest in the state.

Submarket InventoryYE15 MY16 Change YE15 MY16 Change

Boca Raton East 1,988,640 94.7% 94.1% -0.6% $27.97 $25.56 -8.6%

Boca Raton North 112,465 - 97.4% - - $43.91 -

Boca Raton West 3,149,885 - 96.3% - - $25.93 -

Boynton / Lantana 6,414,281 91.1% 91.7% 0.6% $17.02 $17.62 3.6%

Delray Beach 4,138,392 93.6% 92.0% -1.6% $21.33 $21.99 3.1%

Jupiter 2,921,840 94.8% 97.1% 2.3% $18.52 $19.80 6.9%

North Palm Beach 4,535,548 91.5% 91.4% -0.1% $21.29 $21.46 0.8%

Palm Bch City Outlying 2,483,011 - 93.6% - - $20.59 -

Palm Beach 117,228 93.4% 86.3% -7.2% $20.19 - -

Palm Springs / Lake Worth 1,324,457 93.6% 94.4% 0.9% $12.06 $14.27 18.4%

Royal Palm Beach / Wellington 4,779,859 91.3% 92.1% 0.8% $17.00 $16.25 -4.4%

West Palm Beach 7,716,145 89.1% 91.3% 2.2% $15.13 $15.29 1.0%

West Palm Beach CBD 62,037 - 94.3% - - $13.00 -

Palm Beach Market Total 39,681,751 91.7% 92.7% 1.0% $18.40 $18.59 1.0%Power Center & Shopping Center Market Statistics From CoStar Property

Occupancy Asking Rent

Rent and occupancy

Capital markets activityRetail market clock

Submarket activity

While the South Florida market is peaking, Palm Beach still has some room to run with the lowest occupancy in the region, a healthy 92.7%.

AverageOccupancy

Asking Rental Rate

92.7%

$18.591.0%

1.0%

Consecutive Quarters

6 out of 7

Occupancy Growth

Consecutive Quarters

7 out of 8

Rent Growth

Page 22: 2016 Florida Retail Report - floridatrend.com · Brickell City Centre Miami, FL Developed By: Swire Properties, Simon, Whitman Family Development Project Size: 5.4MM sf Retail Size:

Historic Power and Shopping Center Data From CoStar Property and JLL Research

Historic Sales Data From Real Capital Analytics and JLL Research

Capital markets activity

$17.00

$17.50

$18.00

$18.50

$19.00

$19.50

$20.00

$20.50

87%

88%

89%

90%

91%

92%

93%

94%

MY '11 MY'12 MY'13 MY'14 MY'15 MY'16

Occupancy

Rental Rate

5.0%

5.5%

6.0%

6.5%

7.0%

7.5%

8.0%

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

MY'11 MY'12 MY'13 MY'14 MY'15 MY'16

Rolling 12-Mo Volume(In Millions)

Average Cap Rate

Rent and occupancy

Capital markets activity

Fort LauderdalePeakingMarket

FallingMarket

RisingMarket

BottomingMarket

BrowardGreater Fort Lauderdale continues to see an increase in tourism for the 7th consecutive year with 65.3 percent of foreign visitors from Canada and Latin America (3.4 million foreign visitors to the area in 2015). With major destinations such as Sawgrass Mills Mall, including 300+ stores, the area is a major travel destination for shopping.

Residents in the market are benefiting from a 3.8 percent increase in annual wage, which in turn has helped retail sales. With the strengthening economy, additional major retail projects are in the development pipeline, such as Metropica, which plans 400,000 square feet of retail in Sunrise and Dania Pointe, which will include 500,000 square feet upon completion. Both are incorporated into larger scale, mixed-use projects that will include residential, office, and hospitality uses, creating a town square atmosphere.

Submarket InventoryYE15 MY16 Change YE15 MY16 Change

Commercial Blvd 1,046,961 92.6% 94.4% 1.8% $15.31 $15.60 1.9%

Cypress Creek 1,630,068 91.9% 92.7% 0.8% $19.23 $19.54 1.6%

Downtown Fort Lauderdale 994,974 96.2% 96.4% 0.2% $30.63 $34.20 11.6%

Fort Lauderdale 6,682,892 93.1% 93.8% 0.7% $21.12 $20.04 -5.1%

Hallandale 2,108,085 90.9% 93.8% 2.9% $20.09 $22.59 12.4%

Hollywood 5,826,257 94.2% 93.8% -0.3% $22.95 $21.34 -7.0%

NW Broward / Coral Springs 8,297,808 91.9% 92.3% 0.4% $17.38 $18.58 6.9%

Outlying Broward 445,554 96.0% 96.6% 0.6% $19.83 $24.92 25.7%

Plantation 7,850,601 90.2% 90.7% 0.5% $18.92 $18.43 -2.6%

Pompano Beach 9,125,655 92.6% 93.2% 0.6% $19.10 $18.28 -4.3%

Sawgrass Park 1,126,282 96.8% 96.4% -0.4% $27.60 $28.71 4.0%

Southwest Broward 9,015,709 93.8% 94.3% 0.5% $23.78 $24.50 3.0%

Broward Market Total 54,150,846 92.9% 93.3% 0.5% $19.90 $20.12 1.1% Power Center & Shopping Center Market Statistics From CoStar Property

Occupancy Asking Rent

Retail market clock

Submarket activity

AverageOccupancy

Asking Rental Rate

93.3%

$20.121.1%

0.5%

Consecutive Quarters

17

Occupancy Growth

Consecutive Quarters

9 out of 10

Rent Growth

Broward County continues to surge with the longest consistent streak of occupancy gains in the state coupled with less pressure on rents than Miami and Palm Beach have felt.

Page 23: 2016 Florida Retail Report - floridatrend.com · Brickell City Centre Miami, FL Developed By: Swire Properties, Simon, Whitman Family Development Project Size: 5.4MM sf Retail Size:

Miami

PeakingMarket

FallingMarket

RisingMarket

BottomingMarket

Miami-DadeOne of the most coveted retail destinations in the world, Miami saw another strong year in retail sales, specifically those made by visitors, as they spent over $7.4 billion on shopping in 2015. These sales can be contributed to the 6.4% year-over-year increase in total overnight visitors to the market, reaching a record 15.5 million for 2015. With this increase in visitors, retail spaces saw sales per square foot for Miami reach $768, higher than any other metro area in the U.S. Landlords are taking advantage of the strong market as the average retail rate rose to $26.00 per square foot in Miami-Dade County, the highest in the state.

Submarket InventoryYE15 MY16 Change YE15 MY16 Change

Aventura 2,269,351 97.1% 96.6% -0.5% $35.05 $32.17 -8.2%

Biscayne Corridor 523,159 86.8% 87.0% 0.2% $34.40 $36.57 6.3%

Brickell 159,464 100.0% 99.1% - $175.00 $147.23 -15.9%

Coconut Grove 511,921 99.1% 97.2% -1.9% $40.35 $46.55 15.4%

Coral Gables 395,317 95.6% 97.0% 1.3% $48.60 $47.14 -3.0%

Coral Way 692,437 97.8% 98.7% 0.9% $30.15 $29.53 -2.1%

Downtown Miami 120,988 90.4% 90.4% 0.0% $75.00 $75.00 -

Hialeah Gardens 1,339,134 96.0% 95.0% -1.0% $32.44 $17.73 -45.4%

Kendall 10,256,095 97.2% 97.0% -0.2% $25.68 $32.76 27.6%

Medley / Hialeah 6,277,951 93.6% 96.5% 3.0% $26.64 $25.45 -4.5%

Miami 2,142,620 97.1% 94.5% -2.6% $26.00 $27.63 6.3%

Miami Airport 7,232,863 97.5% 97.4% 0.0% $43.33 $27.26 -37.1%

Miami Beach 711,032 94.8% 96.0% 1.1% $21.52 $44.44 106.5%

Miami Lakes 2,607,978 94.7% 95.5% 0.8% $17.94 $24.48 36.5%

Northeast Dade 5,660,272 95.2% 96.1% 1.0% $22.60 $22.17 -1.9%

Outlying Miami-Dade County 204,855 96.0% 83.8% -12.3% $24.12 $23.26 -3.5%

South Dade 4,966,745 95.6% 95.7% 0.1% $19.94 $18.87 -5.4%

West Miami 4,059,503 97.0% 96.9% -0.1% $25.15 $27.79 10.5%

Miami-Dade Market Total 50,131,685 96.2% 96.5% 0.3% $26.31 $26.00 -1.2%Power Center & Shopping Center Market Statistics From CoStar Property

Occupancy Asking Rent

Retail market clock

Submarket activity

This market is peaking, as we are seeing declining rental rates for thefirst time since early 2013.

AverageOccupancy

Asking Rental Rate

96.5%

$26.001.2%

0.3%

Historic Power and Shopping Center Data From CoStar Property and JLL Research

Historic Sales Data From Real Capital Analytics and JLL Research

Capital markets activity

$22

$23

$24

$25

$26

$27

$28

94.0%

94.5%

95.0%

95.5%

96.0%

96.5%

97.0%

MY '11 MY'12 MY'13 MY'14 MY'15 MY'16

Occupancy

Rental Rate

5.0%

5.5%

6.0%

6.5%

7.0%

7.5%

8.0%

$0.0

$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

$3.0

MY'11 MY'12 MY'13 MY'14 MY'15 MY'16

Rolling 12-Mo Volume(In Billions)

Average Cap Rate

Rent and occupancy

Capital markets activity

Consecutive Quarters

8

Occupancy Growth

Consecutive Quarters

2 out of 3

Declining Rent

Page 24: 2016 Florida Retail Report - floridatrend.com · Brickell City Centre Miami, FL Developed By: Swire Properties, Simon, Whitman Family Development Project Size: 5.4MM sf Retail Size:

Denise CameronProperty Manager South Florida

Andy CarlsonVP, Retail Brokerage Florida and Puerto Rico

Drew CarlsonAssociate, Retail Brokerage West Florida

Suzie CastellonAssistant GM South Florida

Kimli CrossSr. Director Retail National

Brandon DelanoisAssociate, Retail Brokerage Central Florida

Andrew DieringerVP, Retail Leasing Central Florida

Cindy GeerBrokerage Coordinator Central Florida

Justin GreiderVP, Agency LeadStatewide

Ben ForsheeSr. Analyst, ResearchStatewide

Heather KitchelBrokerage Coordinator South Florida

Heather LevesqueVP, Regional Marketing Mgr. National

Valerie MnayarjiSenior Analyst Central Florida

Monica Rivera-PaganAssociate Retail Brokerage Puerto Rico

Vanessa PerezAssociate, Retail Brokerage Florida and Puerto Rico

Connie RiggleAssistant Property Manager Central Florida

Cesar RodriguezVP, Retail Brokerage South Florida

Kim SalvatoriVP, Retail Leasing Statewide

Glory SustacheBrokerage Coordinator Florida and Puerto Rico

Steve YenserEVP, Retail Brokerage National

Scott SheronVP, Retail Brokerage South Florida

Naveen JaggiPresident, Retail Brokerage National

Doug IrmscherMarket Director

As the Market Director for Florida, Mr. Irmscher is responsible for the profitability and operations of the firm’s business lines in the state including landlord and tenant representation, property management, project and development services, and investment sales within the office, retail, industrial, hospitality and multi-family markets.

Prior to joining JLL in 2013, Mr. Irmscher spent 19 years with Duke Realty Corporation where he was Sr. Vice President for their Central Florida Operations and served on the company’s Management Committee. In that role he was responsible for the overall profitability and operations of the $300M / 5 million s.f. office and industrial portfolio. His responsibilities also included new development, land and building acquisitions and dispositions, leasing, marketing and property management. Doug has developed over 25 Class A office and industrial projects in Florida, valued at over $400 million totaling 3.2 million s.f. and completed over 400 lease transactions. Some notable build to suit transactions include Benjamin Moore, Coca-Cola, CuraScript / Express Scripts, Disney, Iron Mountain and JP Morgan.

John LambertExecutive Vice President, Retail Market Lead

Based in Orlando, Mr. Lambert is the Retail Market Lead for Orlando/Florida. He is responsible for the oversight of all operational functions and collaborates with clients and client service teams to develop and implement strategies, which maximize asset value. Additional responsibilities include serving as the Agency Leasing Lead, where he is responsible for the administration and management of leasing brokers and provides strategic planning and evaluation of remerchandising and redevelopment of properties. Mr. Lambert also plays an instrumental role in business development and relationship management for investor and occupier clients seeking retail services in Florida.

Mr. Lambert has 20 years of real estate experience in leasing, development, management, finance and operations. Prior to joining Jones Lang LaSalle, Mr. Lambert was a partner with Progressive Development Services. In this role, he was responsible for both debt and equity financing for mixed-use developments. Additionally, he performed conceptual planning for mixed-use developments including site and lease plans, establishing market rents and out parcel pricing. He implemented retail leasing and merchandising plans with in-house, third party leasing agents and tenant representatives. Mr. Lambert was also responsible for coordinating property management operations to include turnover from construction, property operation manual preparation, rent collection activities and annual operating expense reconciliations.

Carson GoodManaging Director, Capital Markets Retail

Mr. Good is a Managing Director in the JLL Capital Markets Group. He is responsible for leading the firm’s Capital Markets team for retail properties and development sites in the State of Florida.

Prior to joining JLL, Mr. Good served as president of Good Capital Group, a shopping center and mixed-use land development and investment company. Before that he served as a senior executive at Trammell Crow Company, Intram Investments, and The Pizzuti Organization. Mr. Good’s 25-year real estate career has focused entirely on retail – developing, leasing and brokering over $3 billion in retail and mixed use properties. He is active in the community and served on numerous boards, most recently as Chairman of the Orange County Planning and Zoning Commission.

Brett EarpVice President, Regional Manager

Mr. Earp is Vice President, Regional Manager for a portfolio of retail properties for the Florida and Atlanta markets. He has overall responsibility for relationship management of existing and prospective clients seeking retail services. His primary focus is to provide superior client service and work directly with the clients to ensure an understanding of investment objectives, development of property-specific strategic plans, and operating and capital budgets.

Mr. Earp brings 20 years of real estate industry experience including asset management and property management with a concentration in office and retail properties. Prior to joining JLL, Mr. Earp served as Vice President of Property Management for Colliers International. His responsibilities included the oversight of property management activities across South Carolina. He also oversaw a staff of over 60 property managers, administrative and maintenance personnel.

Earlier in his career, Mr. Earp spent over 10 years at a privately held REIT as a Property Manager and Asset Manager. He has also worked over five years in supervisory roles at national real estate firms in both property management and asset management positions. As an asset manager, Mr. Earp has completed over $100 million of lease transactions, including the purchase and sale of dozens of commercial properties across the southeast

Leadership team

Natalie PucciniAssociate, Retail Brokerage West Florida

Don CarrRetail Development Central and South Florida

Carrie FroelicherRetail Development AnalystCentral Florida

Page 25: 2016 Florida Retail Report - floridatrend.com · Brickell City Centre Miami, FL Developed By: Swire Properties, Simon, Whitman Family Development Project Size: 5.4MM sf Retail Size:

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