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2016 ENERGY BANKING SECTOR: YEAR IN REVIEW IPAA / TIPRO Mike Lister Managing Director & Energy Corporate Banking Group Head

2016 ENERGY BANKING SECTOR: YEAR IN REVIEW€¦ · This presentation does not constitute a commitment by any JPMC entity to extend or arrange credit or to provide any other services

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Page 1: 2016 ENERGY BANKING SECTOR: YEAR IN REVIEW€¦ · This presentation does not constitute a commitment by any JPMC entity to extend or arrange credit or to provide any other services

2 0 1 6 E N E R G Y B A N K I N G S E C T O R : Y E A R I N R E V I E W

IPAA / TIPRO

Mike Lister

Managing Director & Energy Corporate Banking Group Head

Page 2: 2016 ENERGY BANKING SECTOR: YEAR IN REVIEW€¦ · This presentation does not constitute a commitment by any JPMC entity to extend or arrange credit or to provide any other services

Chase, J.P. Morgan, and JPMorgan Chase are marketing names for certain businesses of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its subsidiaries worldwide (collectively, “JPMC”). This document was prepared solely and exclusively for the benefit and internal use of the party to whom it is directly addressed and delivered (the “Company”) in order to make a preliminary presentation to the Company regarding certain products or services that might be provided by JPMC. This document and any related presentation materials are for discussion purposes only and are incomplete without reference to, and should be viewed solely in conjunction with, a related oral briefing provided by JPMC. This presentation does not constitute a commitment by any JPMC entity to extend or arrange credit or to provide any other services. The Materials and oral briefing (collectively the “Information”) contain information which is confidential and proprietary to JPMC and may only be used by the Company for the purpose of evaluating the products and services described in the Information and may not be copied, published, disclosed or used, in whole or in part, for any other purpose other than as expressly authorized by a JPMC entity. In preparing the Information, JPMC has relied upon and assumed, without independent verification, the accuracy and completeness of information available from public sources or provided to it by or on behalf of the Company. JPMC does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness or reliability of that information. JPMC’s opinions and estimates contained herein reflect prevailing conditions and our views as of this date, which are accordingly subject to change, and should be regarded as indicative, preliminary and for illustrative purposes only. Our analyses are not and do not purport to be appraisals of the assets, stock, or business of the Company or any other entity. The Information is not intended and shall not be deemed to constitute or contain advice on legal, tax, investment, accounting, regulatory, technology or other matters on which the Company may rely, and the Company should consult with its own financial, legal, tax, accounting, compliance, treasury, technology, information system or similar advisors prior to entering into any agreement for JPMC products or services. The Company is responsible for its own independent assessment as to the cost, benefit, suitability and appropriateness of any products or services it obtains from JPMC. JPMC makes no representations as to the actual value which may be received in connection with any JPMC product or service or the legal, tax, or accounting implications of consummating any transaction contemplated by the Information. The Information contained herein is intended as general market and/or economic commentary, does not constitute and should not be treated as J.P. Morgan research. The Information may differ from that contained in J.P. Morgan research reports. The Information is not intended as nor shall it be deemed to constitute advice or a recommendation regarding the issuance of municipal securities or the use of any municipal financial products. JPMC is not providing any such advice or acting as the Company’s agent, fiduciary or advisor, including, without limitation, as a Municipal Advisor under Section 15B of the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. The Information does not purport to set forth all applicable terms or issues and are not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial product or service or a commitment by JPMC as to the availability of any such product or service at any time. JPMC products and services are subject to applicable laws, regulations, service terms and policies of JPMC. Not all products and services are available in all geographic areas or to all customers. Eligibility for particular products and services is subject to satisfaction of applicable legal, tax, risk, credit and other due diligence, JPMC’s “know your customer,” anti-money laundering, anti-terrorism and other policies and procedures. Products and services may be provided by commercial bank affiliates, securities affiliates or other JPMC affiliates or entities. In particular, securities brokerage services other than those which can be provided by commercial bank affiliates under applicable law will be provided by registered broker/dealer affiliates such as J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, J.P. Morgan Institutional Investments Inc. or by such other affiliates as may be appropriate to provide such services under applicable law. Such securities are not deposits or other obligations of any such commercial bank, are not guaranteed by any such commercial bank and are not insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. All trademarks, trade names and service marks appearing in the Information are the property of their respective registered owners. © 2016 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

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Page 3: 2016 ENERGY BANKING SECTOR: YEAR IN REVIEW€¦ · This presentation does not constitute a commitment by any JPMC entity to extend or arrange credit or to provide any other services

Page

Agenda

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JPMorgan Overview 1

Debt Market Update 3

M&A Activity 15

Oil Market Outlook 18

Page 4: 2016 ENERGY BANKING SECTOR: YEAR IN REVIEW€¦ · This presentation does not constitute a commitment by any JPMC entity to extend or arrange credit or to provide any other services

Commodity Hedging

M&A and A&D Advisory

Interest Rate Risk Management/ Foreign Exchange

Corporate Trust/ Retirement Plan

Services

Leasing

Equity Capital Markets

Syndicated Finance/ Borrowing Base Lending

Cash Management

Debt Capital Markets

Debt Private Placements

Significant client coverage and capital deployed to the energy sector

One of the largest credit underwriting and engineering teams

Extensive expertise in North American reserves

Research, Lending, Equity, and Debt Underwriting – all energy focused

Diverse client base enables JPM to distribute industry-leading research

#1 Overall Cash Management Provider (2011-15)

J.P. Morgan’s extensive North American coverage model supporting the energy sector J

PM

OR

GA

N O

VE

RV

IEW

Global financial institution uniquely positioned to assist O&G clients

Extensive relationships with corporations, governments and other investors

#2 bookrunner in global and U.S. equity for last 7 years

#1 in U.S. E&P equity and equity-linked league table 2006 – YTD 2016

#1 in global high yield bonds nine years in a row: 2005 – 2015

#1 in E&P sector for high yield bonds each year from 2006 – 2015

#1 in syndicated loans for 23 years

#1 in high grade bonds: 2014 – YTD 2016

Industry leader in commodity derivatives

Investment Banking

Corporate Banking

Source: Dealogic

Oil & Gas

1

Page 5: 2016 ENERGY BANKING SECTOR: YEAR IN REVIEW€¦ · This presentation does not constitute a commitment by any JPMC entity to extend or arrange credit or to provide any other services

J.P. Morgan remains a financing leader in the E&P industry J

PM

OR

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U.S. oil & gas high yield bookrunner: 2016YTD ($ millions)1

Range of reserve-based facility sizes ($ in millions)2

[2] J.P. Morgan as of 12/1/16 [1] J.P. Morgan as of 12/12/16, Equal split for bookrunners

24

20

14 12 4 9

13

23 16

11 12

57

37 28

15 21

< $100 $100 - $249 $250 - $499 $500 - $999 > $1,000

Sole Lender Admin Agent Non-Admin Agent

10.2%

8.0% 7.6%

7.0% 6.8% 6.4% 6.2% 6.2% 5.8%

4.4%

JPM MS CSFB Citi DB BAS RBC WFC GS Mitsubishi

Total market: $25,275mm

8 3 7 3 3 6 1 3 2 0

Number of Lead-Left Deals

2

Page 6: 2016 ENERGY BANKING SECTOR: YEAR IN REVIEW€¦ · This presentation does not constitute a commitment by any JPMC entity to extend or arrange credit or to provide any other services

Page

Agenda

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Debt Market Update 3

JPMorgan Overview 1

M&A Activity 15

Oil Market Outlook 18

Page 7: 2016 ENERGY BANKING SECTOR: YEAR IN REVIEW€¦ · This presentation does not constitute a commitment by any JPMC entity to extend or arrange credit or to provide any other services

U.S. high yield energy trading performance (2015 – 2016 YTD) D

EB

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Selected U.S. high yield energy indices (YTW%)

Source: Morgan Markets

11.68%

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

4.0%

10.0%

16.0%

22.0%

28.0%

34.0%

40.0%

46.0%

52.0%

Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16

WTI US HY US HY Energy US BB's Energy US B's Energy US CCC's Energy

$51.49

6.57% 6.63%

5.77% 4.72%

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Page 8: 2016 ENERGY BANKING SECTOR: YEAR IN REVIEW€¦ · This presentation does not constitute a commitment by any JPMC entity to extend or arrange credit or to provide any other services

Energy, BB, B, and CCC rated bonds’ YTD performance D

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Selected global high yield energy indices (YTW%) Selected high yield BB , B and CCC indices (YTW%)

$25

$30

$35

$40

$45

$50

$55

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16

WTI JPM HY Energy Services

JPM HY E&P Index JPM HY Midstream Index

JPM HY Energy

Source: Morgan Markets

$51.49

6.87%

$25

$30

$35

$40

$45

$50

$55

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16

WTI JPM HY BB JPM HY B JPM HY CCC

$51.49

6.43%

4.79%

5.11%

13.04%

11.84%

7.08%

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Page 9: 2016 ENERGY BANKING SECTOR: YEAR IN REVIEW€¦ · This presentation does not constitute a commitment by any JPMC entity to extend or arrange credit or to provide any other services

Global HY energy trading levels – an unexpected rebound D

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$5.3

$200.0

$14.6 $24.2

$28.0

$23.2 $15.8 $13.4

$16.8 $10.6

$30.3 $17.9

2.6% 9.9%

22.1%

36.1% 47.6%

55.5% 62.2%

70.6% 75.9%

91.0% 100.0%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

020406080

100120140160180200220

$100+ $90-99 $80-89 $70-79 $60-69 $50-59 $40-49 $30-39 $20-29 $10-19 $0-9 Total

% o

f tot

al

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iona

l ($B

n)

> 75% of bonds trading lower than $80

February 11, 2016

December 12, 2016

2.6% 7.3% 12.1% 14.0% 11.6% 7.9% 6.7% 8.4% 5.3% 15.1% 9.0% 100% Bond price range % of bonds in range

Note: J.P. Morgan HY Energy index includes E&P HY Index, Midstream HY Index, Energy Services HY Index, Propane HY Index, and Refining HY Index

$106.5

$219.2

$53.0 $16.0

$4.6 $5.5 $5.1 $9.5 $4.2 $3.0 $1.9 $9.9

48.6%

72.8% 80.1% 82.2% 84.7% 87.0% 91.3% 93.2% 94.6% 95.5% 100.0%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%

020406080

100120140160180200220240

$100+ $90-99 $80-89 $70-79 $60-69 $50-59 $40-49 $30-39 $20-29 $10-19 $0-9 Total

% o

f tot

al

Not

iona

l ($B

n)

> 82% of bonds trading higher than $80

Bond price range % of bonds in range 48.6% 24.2% 7.3% 2.1% 2.5% 2.3% 4.3% 1.9% 1.4% 0.9% 4.5% 100.0%

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Page 10: 2016 ENERGY BANKING SECTOR: YEAR IN REVIEW€¦ · This presentation does not constitute a commitment by any JPMC entity to extend or arrange credit or to provide any other services

Strong correlation between oil and energy bank stock prices D

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Source: FactSet, SNL Financial; Market data as of 12/8/16 Note: Energy banks include all banks with funded energy commitments >1% of gross loans during at least one quarter since December 31, 2015, namely, ASB, BAC, BBT, BOKF, C, CFR, CIT, CMA, FFIN,

FIBK, FITB, FNBC, GNBC, HBCP, HBHC, HTH, IBKC, IBTX, JPM, KEY, LTXB, MSL, NBHC, PB, PNC, RF, SBSI, STI, TCBI, TRMK, WFC and ZION

(50%)

(25%)

0%

25%

50%

Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16

WTI Crude Oil

Energy Banks

KBW Nasdaq Bank Index

21.5%

Equities performance since December 2015

21.4%

29.0%

Pre-oil concerns 12/1/15 Median P/2016E 12.9x Median P/TBV 1.56x WTI Crude $41.85 / bbl

Oil bottom 2/11/16 Median P/2016E 10.0x Median P/TBV 1.10x WTI Crude $26.21 / bbl

Current 12/8/16 Median P/2017E 17.6x Median P/TBV 1.86x WTI Crude $50.84 / bbl

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Page 11: 2016 ENERGY BANKING SECTOR: YEAR IN REVIEW€¦ · This presentation does not constitute a commitment by any JPMC entity to extend or arrange credit or to provide any other services

Bank energy portfolios stabilizing since Q1 2016 D

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Source: SNL Financial, FactSet, Company disclosures; Financial data as of September 30, 2016 Note: Energy banks include all banks with funded energy commitments >1% of gross loans during at least one quarter since December 31, 2015, namely, ASB, BAC, BBT, BOKF, C, CFR, CIT, CMA, FFIN, FIBK, FITB, FNBC, GNBC, HBCP, HBHC, HTH, IBKC, IBTX, JPM, KEY, LTXB, MSL, NBHC, PB, PNC, RF, SBSI, STI, TCBI, TRMK, WFC and ZION

Aggregate energy outstandings ($bn) and energy reserves (%) over time, by asset class

$72.5 $78.6 $77.1

$73.0

$19.9 $20.5 $18.8 $17.7

$9.8 $9.7 $9.1 $8.4

$1.8 $1.7 $1.6 $1.5

2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3

>$1tn $50bn-$1tn $10bn-$50bn <$10bn

5.2% 6.4% 6.4% 6.4% 4.7%

7.1% 7.4% 7.4%

3.5% 4.8% 4.8% 5.1%

5.0% 6.6% 6.7%

5.3%

Aggregate exposure ($bn)

$240 $249 $242 $236

$104 $111 $107 $101

$136 $139 $136 $135

Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16

Funded Unfunded

4.5%

5.8% 6.0% 5.6%

Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16

Median energy reserves (%)

Reserve ratio

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Page 12: 2016 ENERGY BANKING SECTOR: YEAR IN REVIEW€¦ · This presentation does not constitute a commitment by any JPMC entity to extend or arrange credit or to provide any other services

High yield defaults & distressed exchanges by industry

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Summary1

OFS Bankruptcies

109 OFS bankruptcies since 2015 2015: 39 YTD 2016: 70

105 E&P bankruptcies since 2015 2015: 44 YTD 2016: 61

E&P Bankruptcies

Sources: Haynes & Boone Bankruptcy Tracker as of 10/25/16; Morgan Markets as of 12/6/16

2015 default and distressed exchanges by industry 2016 default and distressed exchanges by industry

Industry IndustryAutomotive 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Automotive 400 0.6% 1 1.2%Chemicals 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Chemicals 448 0.7% 1 1.2%Consumer 968 2.0% 3 5.1% Consumer 331 0.5% 1 1.2%Diversified 3,249 6.8% 4 6.8% Diversified 383 0.6% 2 2.3%Energy 23,235 48.7% 33 55.9% Energy 45,907 69.4% 52 60.5%Financial 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Financial 1,793 2.7% 4 4.7%Food and Beverages 211 0.4% 1 1.7% Food 144 0.2% 1 1.2%Gaming Lodging 150 0.3% 1 1.7% Gaming 295 0.4% 1 1.2%Healthcare 2,105 4.4% 2 3.4% Healthcare 361 0.5% 1 1.2%Housing 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Housing 0 0.0% 0 0.0%Industrials 250 0.5% 1 1.7% Industrials 355 0.5% 1 1.2%Metals and Mining 2,101 4.4% 3 5.1% Metals and Mining 8,675 13.1% 7 8.1%Metals and Mining (Coal) 12,241 25.6% 6 10.2% Paper & Packaging 2,712 4.1% 2 2.3%Paper and Packaging 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Retail 1,620 2.4% 6 7.0%Retail 575 1.2% 1 1.7% Services 1,000 1.5% 2 2.3%Services 2,500 5.2% 3 5.1% Technology 767 1.2% 1 1.2%Technology 140 0.3% 1 1.7% Telecommunications 141 0.2% 1 1.2%Telecommunications 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Transportation 225 0.3% 1 1.2%Transportation 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Utility 594 0.9% 1 1.2%Utility 0 0.0% 0 0.0%Total 47,725 59 Total 66,150 86

No. of actionsNo. of actionsAmt affected ($mn) Amt affected ($mn)

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Page 13: 2016 ENERGY BANKING SECTOR: YEAR IN REVIEW€¦ · This presentation does not constitute a commitment by any JPMC entity to extend or arrange credit or to provide any other services

Oil & gas restructuring processes continue on… D

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General takeaways

E&P

Midstream

Oilfield Services

“Minimal losses of principal expected”

“Limited restructurings; Uncertainty about MLP structures”

“Rough road ahead; Jury still out”

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Page 14: 2016 ENERGY BANKING SECTOR: YEAR IN REVIEW€¦ · This presentation does not constitute a commitment by any JPMC entity to extend or arrange credit or to provide any other services

2016 – Balancing act for large energy banks

Distressed Credits Well Capitalized Existing Credits New Transactions

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Chapter 11 filings / restructurings

Distressed debt exchanges

Revised OCC guidance

Bank loan loss reserves

Post-restructuring credit facilities

Decisively raised capital when available

Non-core asset sales

Generally operating in more attractive basins

Evaluating opportunistic acquisitions

Driven by private equity-backed E&Ps

Conservative capital structures

Free cash flow positive drilling plan

Significant upfront, multi-year hedging

Moderate transaction sizes executed to date

Improving bank market capacity for larger transactions if well structured

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Page 15: 2016 ENERGY BANKING SECTOR: YEAR IN REVIEW€¦ · This presentation does not constitute a commitment by any JPMC entity to extend or arrange credit or to provide any other services

Seasonal changes in Borrowing Bases… D

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Spring 2016 Significant stress hits balances sheets (loan losses spike)

Lending price decks revised downward for new reality

Most banks in pause or ‘reduce exposure’ mode

Confusion over revised OCC guidelines

Borrowing base significantly affected – 63% decreased – 23% reaffirmed – 14% increased

Fall 2016 New private equity-backed deals

OCC clarity

Moderate increase in lender appetite

Hedging activity picks up

Improved market for borrowing base redeterminations – 44% reaffirmed – 28% increased – 28% decreased

Spring 2016 Structural amendments

Higher pricing

Hedge protection rolling off

Fall 2016 Borrowing base redeterminations stabilize

Assets are trading – increased M&A

Significant acquisition hedging

Institutional investor appetite rebounds

Lenders

Borrowers

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Page 16: 2016 ENERGY BANKING SECTOR: YEAR IN REVIEW€¦ · This presentation does not constitute a commitment by any JPMC entity to extend or arrange credit or to provide any other services

Recently revised OCC Oil & Gas Handbook potential impact to borrowers

Following the 2015 annual review by the Shared National Credit Program (“SNC”), the Agencies (FDIC & OCC) reported a high level of credit risk and increased weakness in oil & gas loans: “Aggressive acquisition and exploration strategies from 2010 through 2014 led to increases in

leverage, making many borrowers more susceptible to a protracted decline in commodity prices. …Classified commitments - a credit rated as substandard, doubtful, or loss - among oil and gas borrowers totaled $34.2 billion, or 15 percent, of total classified commitments, compared with $6.9 billion, or 3.6 percent, in 2014.”

New assessment ratings standards include the analysis of: The borrower’s ability to repay secured debt with considerations for total debt repayment within

Reserve Life Total funded debt / EBITDAX leverage ratios Total funded debt / capital Total committed debt / total proved future net revenue (unrisked and undiscounted; current NYMEX

prices)

“Because the new guidelines represent a course change for evaluating energy banks’ portfolios, the impact of the new guidelines could be more like a tsunami than a ripple.” – Haynes & Boone LLC

E&P companies have experienced more difficulty obtaining bank financing or amendments, waivers, or extensions

Loans with lower credit ratings increase the loss reserves banks must set aside, increasing the costs to carry an adversely rated loan on its books

At a time when producers are in need of flexibility from their lenders, possible solutions are more limited

“The tougher standards will require greater scrutiny and analysis by bankers and their credit officers” – Haynes & Boone LLC

2015 SNC Annual Review Summary

Sources: OCC Handbook March 2016 & Haynes & Boone LLC’s “New OCC Oil and Gas Loan Review Guidelines” published March 28, 2016

OCC Credit Assessment Standards

Industry Impact

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Page 17: 2016 ENERGY BANKING SECTOR: YEAR IN REVIEW€¦ · This presentation does not constitute a commitment by any JPMC entity to extend or arrange credit or to provide any other services

Effect on oil & gas borrowers from new guidelines

Regulatory focus on leveraged loans increases banks’ loan loss reserves

Limited appetite for additional exposure

Banks re-rating portfolios given regulatory guidance and commodity prices

Focus on structures and free cash flow

Risk appetite for commodity hedging exposure impacted

Focus shifts from collateral coverage to free cash flow

Emphasis on maintenance “replacement” CAPEX Lower maintenance capital results in more liquidity for CAPEX to hold or grow production, or to repay

debt, etc.

Given the banks’ requirement to hold more capital, energy companies have experienced the following: Increasing borrowing costs Tightened credit structures Stricter hedging requirements

Capital

Appetite

Bank

Flexibility

Credit Metrics

Costs

“Regulatory pressure could force [banks] to tighten the purse strings [on energy companies]” - WSJ

“The effects… can cascade through companies' capital structures and require them to look elsewhere for [capital]” – WSJ

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Page 18: 2016 ENERGY BANKING SECTOR: YEAR IN REVIEW€¦ · This presentation does not constitute a commitment by any JPMC entity to extend or arrange credit or to provide any other services

2014 - 2018 Natural Gas and Crude Hedge Ratios – Mean and Median

Snapshot of E&P hedging position by market capitalization as of 3Q16

42%

61%

49%

23%

42%

51%

4%

15%20%

66%60%

28%

44%52%

26%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Large Cap Mid Cap Small Cap

2014 Realized 2015 Realized 2016 Hedges

2017 Hedges 2018 Hedges

Natural Gas – Mean Hedge Percentages by Year

Summary

Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates as published by J.P. Morgan North America Equity Research OR as estimated by J.P.Morgan Global Commodities Group when research model is unavailable; Companies with less than 5% oil or gas production are not included in calculated median for respective commodity.

53%

72%65%

16%

43%

3% 6% 6%

72% 71%

29%

66% 68%

30%

42%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Large Cap Mid Cap Small Cap

2014 Realized 2015 Realized 2016 Hedges

2017 Hedges 2018 Hedges

Crude – Mean Hedge Percentages by Year

% Gas Hedged

% Oil Hedged

% Gas Hedged

% Oil Hedged

% Gas Hedged

% Oil Hedged

% Gas Hedged

% Oil Hedged

% Gas Hedged

% Oil Hedged

Large Cap Median 34% 65% 25% 22% 20% 26% 26% 9% 1% 0%

Large Cap Mean 42% 53% 28% 29% 26% 30% 23% 16% 4% 3%

Mid Cap Median 76% 81% 50% 68% 51% 65% 49% 49% 4% 0%

Mid Cap Mean 61% 72% 49% 65% 44% 66% 42% 42% 15% 6%

Small Cap Median 71% 79% 68% 75% 52% 70% 51% 40% 0% 0%

Small Cap Mean 66% 72% 60% 71% 52% 68% 51% 43% 20% 6%

201820172014 Realized 2015 Realized 2016

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Page

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M&A Activity 15

Debt Market Update 3

JPMorgan Overview 1

Oil Market Outlook 18

Page 20: 2016 ENERGY BANKING SECTOR: YEAR IN REVIEW€¦ · This presentation does not constitute a commitment by any JPMC entity to extend or arrange credit or to provide any other services

2015: U.S. upstream M&A market led by Permian and SCOOP / STACK… M

&A

AC

TIV

ITY

Number of transactions in 2015 (>$50mm)

56

38

28

26

18

16 16

14

6

6

16

7 6 6

5 4

3 4

3 2

2

2 3

1

1 1

1

1

1

1

1

19

10 9

7 7

5 5 4

3 2

0

5

10

15

20

25

Permian MidCon Rockies Appalachia Diversified ETX/Haynesville Bakken Eagle Ford GOM Other

0$-$500mm

$500mm-$1bn

$1bn-$1.5bn

>$1.5bn

Total transaction value ($bn) $7,780 $4,718 $3,154 $1,957 $5,533 $1,852 $2,614 $436 $598 $318

12

4

1

1 1

13

6

Midland Delaware$3,671 $4,109

Basin: Tot. V.:

Source: IHS Herold, PLS as of 11/28/16

2 1 1

2 1

1

1 1

3

2 2 2

1

W. Anadarko SCOOP STACK Arkoma Hunton/Miss

$1,040 $1,021

Play:

Tot. V.: $1,982 $604 $72

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Page 21: 2016 ENERGY BANKING SECTOR: YEAR IN REVIEW€¦ · This presentation does not constitute a commitment by any JPMC entity to extend or arrange credit or to provide any other services

2016 YTD: Permian dominance accelerates M

&A

AC

TIV

ITY

Number of transactions 2016 YTD (>$50mm)

56 38

28

26

18 16

16

14

6

6

18 18

3

11

3 2

5

9

1 3

4

1

3

1

1

1

1 1

1

7

1

1

1

29

19

6

13

3

5 6

10

2

4

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Permian MidCon Rockies Appalachia Diversified ETX/Haynesville Bakken Eagle Ford GOM Other

0$-$500mm

$500mm-$1bn

$1bn-$1.5bn

>$1.5bn

Total transaction value ($bn) $21,377 $4,174 $2,113 $5,003 $678 $6,198 $1,321 $3,157 $2,425 $1,642

9 9

1 3 2

5 12

17

Midland Delaware$7,026 $14,351

Basin: Tot. V.:

Source: IHS Herold, PLS as of 11/28/16

4 6 6

2

1 4

6

2

W. Anadarko SCOOP STACK Arkoma Hunton/Miss

7

$1,013 $1,106

Play:

Tot. V.: $1,785 $0 $270

16

Page 22: 2016 ENERGY BANKING SECTOR: YEAR IN REVIEW€¦ · This presentation does not constitute a commitment by any JPMC entity to extend or arrange credit or to provide any other services

Permian continues to dominate the equity market, but other basins are gaining traction M

&A

AC

TIV

ITY

3.0

0.1

1.9

3.6

1.2

2.9

1.0

0.3

0.6

1.7

2.5

0.9 0.2

4.5

3.5

0.2

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.4 0.4

0.2

0.8

2.2

0.9

1.4

0.6

2.5

3.0

5.4

1.1

$10.9

$3.5

$2.3

$0.8

$10.6

$7.2

$10.6

$2.5

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Appalachia Bakken Diversified DJ Mid-Con SCOOP/Stack Permian

E&P equity/equity-linked capital raised ($bn) E&P equity/equity-linked offerings 2016YTD

Source: Dealogic, Factset as at 11/22/16. Note: excludes MLP issuance

2015 2016

% Permian % Permian

20% 25% 61% 71% 23% 42% 51% 42%

17

Page 23: 2016 ENERGY BANKING SECTOR: YEAR IN REVIEW€¦ · This presentation does not constitute a commitment by any JPMC entity to extend or arrange credit or to provide any other services

Page

Agenda

20

16

EN

ER

GY

BA

NK

ING

SE

CT

OR

: Y

EA

R I

N R

EV

IEW

Oil Market Outlook 18

Debt Market Update 3

M&A Activity 15

JPMorgan Overview 1

Page 24: 2016 ENERGY BANKING SECTOR: YEAR IN REVIEW€¦ · This presentation does not constitute a commitment by any JPMC entity to extend or arrange credit or to provide any other services

Tighter markets ahead! Price outlook supported by OPEC deal. End-’16 Brent at $54/bbl, end-’17 at $60/bbl. WTI end’17 at $58/bbl

OIL

MA

RK

ET

OU

TL

OO

K

OPEC fails to agree terms for its production initiative, Competition for market share resumes

Macroeconomic growth shock results in much weaker demand growth

US shale producers have reduced costs/improved well productivity to compete in a $40/bbl world. Technology/ productivity improvements exceed our assumptions.

Uncompleted well inventory falls more rapidly than assumed, boosting US production

OPEC implements more aggressive production cuts. Addition of non-OPEC producers to production initiative adds to upside risks

Geopolitical instability increases in the key petroleum exporting countries

Steeper-than-expected decline in mature oil fields

Demand growth accelerates on lower prices pushing refinery margins higher

Source: ICE, NYMEX, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research. Note: LT means long-term forecast. All Forecasts are period averages. Actual to date prices are as of November 30, 2016.

J.P. Morgan crude oil price forecast ($/bbl)

1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 2016 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 2017

Brent - av erage 50.00 44.81 52.00 54.00 57.00 60.00 55.75

Brent - end of period 39.60 49.60 50.00 54.00 54.00 53.50 56.00 60.00 60.00 60.00

Brent Actual To Date 35.21 47.03 46.99 49.17 … … … … … …

WTI - av erage 48.00 43.05 50.00 52.00 55.00 58.00 53.75

WTI - end of period 38.34 48.33 49.00 54.00 54.00 51.50 54.00 58.00 58.00 58.00

WTI Actual To Date 33.63 45.64 44.94 47.83 … … … … …

18

Page 25: 2016 ENERGY BANKING SECTOR: YEAR IN REVIEW€¦ · This presentation does not constitute a commitment by any JPMC entity to extend or arrange credit or to provide any other services

OIL

MA

RK

ET

OU

TL

OO

K

Q & A

19