2016-17 Budget Projection Scenarios

Dr. Christina M. Kishimoto

Superintendent

Tom Wohlleber

Chief Financial Officer

January 12, 2016

1

What is the purpose of a budget projection model?

• To provide a framework for budget development

• To identify the factors or variables that will impact the budget

• To clarify the planning assumptions to be utilized in

developing the budget

Why are multiple budget projection scenarios being presented?

• To illustrate the range of impact that the most critical variables

will have in developing the 2016-17 budget

2

What are the critical factors that will impact the level of financial

resources available for the 2016-17 budget?

1) Enrollment (Average Daily Membership or ADM)

• Change to current year enrollment (ADM) for determining

the District’s budget limit

• Each student (unweighted ADM) generates approximately

$5,200 in budget capacity (Revenue Control Limit) in the

current school year

• GPS 2016-17 enrollment

2) Inflation Lawsuit Settlement

3) Base Level Inflation Factor 3

UE = Ungraded Elementary SOURCE: ADMS 46-1 Reports4

Grade / YearFY11

100th Day

FY12

100th Day

FY13

100th Day

FY14

100th Day

FY15

100th Day

FY15

40th Day

FY16

40th DayPre-School 233 231 227 240 245 218 176

KG (including UE) 1,231 1,305 1,173 1,202 1,187 1,153 1,049

Grade 1 2,587 2,526 2,594 2,485 2,427 2,415 2,102

Grade 2 2,655 2,598 2,569 2,589 2,504 2,504 2,365

Grade 3 2,719 2,726 2,596 2,624 2,586 2,580 2,449

Grade 4 2,835 2,737 2,761 2,623 2,599 2,600 2,502

Grade 5 2,855 2,871 2,763 2,710 2,565 2,566 2,505

Grade 6 2,899 2,875 2,851 2,770 2,705 2,708 2,561

Grade 7 3,247 3,181 3,212 3,127 3,038 3,049 2,876

Grade 8 3,252 3,241 3,258 3,258 3,156 3,169 3,027

Grade 9 3,200 3,170 3,182 3,186 3,177 3,186 3,080

Grade 10 3,084 3,131 3,117 3,174 3,171 3,180 3,162

Grade 11 2,942 2,910 3,008 2,998 3,034 3,077 3,094

Grade 12 2,830 2,838 2,890 3,040 2,962 2,998 3,086

Total 36,571 36,341 36,203 36,028 35,357 35,403 34,035

Change (230) (138) (174) (671) (1322)

% Change -0.63% -0.38% -0.48% -1.86% -3.74%

Scenario A assumes an unweighted ADM loss of 1,350

Scenario B assumes an unweighted ADM loss of 2,000

Both Scenario A and Scenario B assume:

• Inflation Lawsuit Settlement election is NOT approved

• FY16 Base Level inflation increase of $54.99 remains intact

(Base Level with teacher comp of $3,524.56)

• FY17 Base Level inflation increase of 1.15%

• Teacher Experience Index factor of 1.0207

• Transfer to Capital Fund of $300,000

• Budget Balance Carry forward of $3,500,0005

Scenario C assumes an unweighted ADM loss of 1,350

Scenario D assumes an unweighted ADM loss of 2,000

Both Scenario C and Scenario D assume:

• Inflation Lawsuit Settlement election IS approved

• FY16 Base Level with teacher comp is adjusted to $3,645

• FY17 Base Level inflation increase of 1.15%

(Base Level with teacher comp of $3,686.92)

• Teacher Experience Index factor of 1.0207

• Transfer to Capital Fund of $300,000

• Budget Balance Carry forward of $3,500,0006

7

Without Inflation Lawsuit Settlement With Inflation Lawsuit Settlement*

FY 17 Scenario A FY 17 Scenario B FY 17 Scenario C* FY 17 Scenario D*

FY 16 Budget 1350 ADM Decrease 2000 ADM Decrease 1350 ADM Decrease 2000 ADM Decrease

Revenue Control Limit (RCL) $183,474,217 $178,460,000 $175,520,000 $184,250,000 $181,210,000

Transfer to Capital Fund (2,101,000) (300,000) (300,000) (300,000) (300,000)

Override (10% of RCL) 0 17,846,000 17,552,000 18,425,000 18,121,000

Transfer from Capital Fund 2,681,893 0 0 0 0

Tuition Revenue 40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000

Budget Balance Carryforward 5,270,412 3,500,000 3,500,000 3,500,000 3,500,000

M&O General Budget Limit $189,365,522 $199,546,000 $196,312,000 $205,915,000 $202,571,000

Increase from FY 16 $10,180,478 $6,946,478 $16,549,478 $13,205,478

*Scenarios C & D do NOT inlcude the GPS portion of the additional $50 million installment from the inflation lawsuit settlement.

What is the projected budget increase resulting from approval of the

M&O override?

• The estimated increase in budget capacity for 2016-17 in the projection

scenarios ranges from $17.5 to $18.4 million.

Why is the projected budget increase from the M&O override different

than the amount estimated during the election?

• The estimated increase in budget capacity for 2016-17 from the M&O

override presented during the election was $18.6 million.

• Actual budget capacity is the result of a larger than expected decrease

(approximately double) in student enrollment. 8

9

Priority 1: Offer Competitive Wages Estimated Amount

Staff Compensation Proposal Cost $10,000,000

Unpaid Professional Development Advancement $850,000

Priority 3: Quality Academic Programming Estimated Amount

Instructional Improvement $1,500,000+

Priority 2: Maintain/Reduce Class Size Estimated Amount

Maintain Class Size Limits for 2016-17 N/A

10

Priority 4: Affordable Student Access Estimated Amount

Student Fee Reductions/Adjustments TBD

Priority 5: College & Career Readiness Programming Estimated Amount

Program Expansion $500,000+

11

Priority Description Estimated Amount

Capital Funding Allocation (from M&O) $300,000+

District Contribution to Insurance Trust Fund $2,000,000+