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7/24/2019 2015IndustryOutlook a Hotel
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/ 787-2209
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Summary
Outlook .
1)
2) ,
3)
.
[ ]
2015
2015/,
,
.
.
[ Credit Issue ]
, ,
,
/.
, ,
.
, ,
.
2014,
, .
201523
,
.
Hotels 2014. 12
K S ndustry Outlook
-
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(Hotels)
K S ndustry Outlook
2
GS
.
.
[ Monitoring Point ]
: - ,
-
:
3
vs.
I.
/
2014.
,
.
[ ](: )
[ - ]
) , . : ,
7,8188,798
9,79511,140
12,17610,339
11,998
13%11%
14%
9%
16%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 13.10 14.10
() ()
11.8%8.7%
12.0%
28.7%34.8%
20.3%
12.4%7.0% 7.7%
21.1%
-30%
-10%
10%
30%
50%
70%
90%
14.01 14.02 14.03 14.04 14.05 14.06 14.07 14.08 14.09 14.10
: 2015
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(Hotels)
K S ndustry Outlook
3
, , 72
,
.
, 2012
.
2014 5.
, ,
, 2014 10
7%.
[ ](: )
[ ](: )
:
,
,
.
[ CSI ]
: , ,
-20.9%
31.5%
1.6%
8.2% 8.1% 7.0%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 13.10 14.10
1,469
1,313
1,1511,180
1,2231,270
1,455
1,547
1,321
1,432
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112
2011 2012 2013 2014
80
90
100
110
120
130
10.1Q 11.1Q 12.1Q 13.1Q 14.1Q
CSI
CSI
:
,
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(Hotels)
K S ndustry Outlook
4
1
10% , 2000
1 200 ( 3%) .
2014 JW(170)The-K,
1. ,
1
.
[ 1]
2000 12 2011 12 2012 12 2013 12
2014 10
15 8,184 21 10,294 21 10,366 22 10,742 24 11,119) JW2013122013.
:
1
, , 2013.
[ 1]
(: , %)
[ 1 ]
(: , %)
) RevPar = X :
, ,
, 1
.
129117 122
130143
162171
182
160
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-
50
100
150
200
250
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
RevPar ()
86 82 7993
105114
130141
134
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-
50
100
150
200
250
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
RevPar ()
1:
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(Hotels)
K S ndustry Outlook
5
15%
. 20142013
,
,
.
, 1
2015
.
2008 2,
2009 DF( AK), 2011
.
(2012)(2013),
, 2015 2
3
.
[ ](: USD $)
[ - ](: )
: ,
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 14.10
()
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
2011 2012 2013 13.3Q 14.3Q
:
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(Hotels)
K S ndustry Outlook
6
II.
Credit Issue
2000 1/,
2013 9 8, 2014 1
.
, 20131USD 1.3
, (2013 26.1%).
,
.
2013 4
, 2014 10
39.0% 5.
, 1
, .
[ ]
(: USD)
[ ]
(: )
: UNWTO(), COTRI(China Outbound Tourism Research Institute)
(distance decay,
),
, ,
.
, 2013 10 1
.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Ch ina Uni ted Sta te Germany Russ ian
Federation
United
Kingdom
2011 2012 2013
57.4
70.3
83.2
98.0
112.0
72.6
85.0
3.3% 3.2% 3.4%
4.4%4.7%
5.5%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014(E) 13.09 14.09
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(Hotels)
K S ndustry Outlook
7
,
. ,
2012
2013 (/100 2012 1,247.5
201411 942.9), 1
. 2015
, ,
.
[ ] [ - ]
:
2012
, 2013.
.
, ,
. ,
2015 2 3
,
.
150
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
2010.01 2011.01 2012.01 2013.01 2014.01
/() /100() /()
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2010.01 2011.01 2012.01 2013.01 2014.01
/100
,
-
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(Hotels)
K S ndustry Outlook
8
1
1.
, (
, ),
, .
110 18,592(2014 7),
2017 2,000~3,000. ,
Serviced Residence,
.
[ ](: )
[ ](: )
: (2014.01.16), (2014.10.31)
1
.
1,
.
1,
, , ,
.
,
.
.
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
2013 2014(E) 2015(E) 2016(E) 2017(E)
() () ()
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2014(E) 2015(E) 2016(E) 2017(E)
-
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(Hotels)
K S ndustry Outlook
9
III.
/Monitoring Point
Monitoring Point
2015
,
. ,
2015,
.
[ Monitoring Point]
: - ,
-
:
3
vs.
2015, ,
.
,
. (FIT)(,
, , )
.
30%
, 2014, , M/S5:4:1
. 201533
,
, .
,
.
,
,
-
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(Hotels)
K S ndustry Outlook
1
2014 12, , ,
, 5.
, Outlook.
[ ]
2010 12 2011 12 2012 12 2013 12 2014 12
AA+/ AA+/ AA+/ AA+/ AA+/
A1 A1 A1 A1 A1
AA/ AA/ AA/ AA/ -
A1 A1 A1 A1 A1
AA-/ AA/ AA/ AA/ AA/
A1 A1 - - -
- - - A+/ A+/
- A1 A1 A1 A1
- - - A+/ A+/
A2 A2+ - - -:
()
,
. , , , 2014 4
AA/AA/.
2014/,
,
, ,
.
,
1. 2014 12GS
( 67.7%),
,
, .
,
. ,
,
. ,
, , .
201412
5
:
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11/11
(Hotels)
K S ndustry Outlook
11
/ , ,
.
Financial Obligations)
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.
,
.
.
,
,
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