Upload
joyce-sampoerna
View
213
Download
0
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
TRIM
Citation preview
TRIM DAILY PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com 1
We’ve met with the owner of Raywhite Fatmawati, some takeaways: tax amnesty has not yet impacted to the overall sales, even the rumored price correction was not entirely true (see p.2). Banks news: BBNI assets to in-crease by Rp12tn post assets revaluation—positive, but share price has already moved up by ~9% mtd, thus, upside risk is becoming limited. We now like BBRI (Buy, TP Rp13,300) and BBTN (Buy, TP Rp1,550) on our Indo-
nesian banks universe. BBTN: govt claims to have built more than 600k units of houses—positive for the company as this shows the absence of supply side problems. WSKT to acquire Kanci-Probolinggo toll road from MNC—positive for the company, but not in the near term.
TRIM Daily
TRIM Highlights
Nov 26, 2015
Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) up by 4 point to 4585 yesterday. Index movers were mostly driven by cunsumer (+1.4%), basic industry (+1.5%) and finance (+1.4%). Total transaction value was Rp5.3tr (2.1tr non reg.). JCI recorded Rp89bn net buy by foreign investors. JCI today is expected to going upward in support resistant 4517 – 4650.
Technical Market View
U.S. consumer spending barely rose in October as households took ad-vantage of rising incomes to boost savings to their highest level in nearly three years, pointing to moderate economic growth in the fourth quarter. The Commerce Department said consumer spending edged up 0.1 percent after a similar increase in September. From the Labor Department, applications for state unemployment benefits declined 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted
260,000 for the week ended Nov. 21.
Global Wrap
Technical analysis: trading picks
Change 0.88%
Transaction Volume (m) 5,630
Transaction Value (Rpbn) 5,332
Mkt Cap (Rptr) 4,847
Market 2015 P/E (x) 13.1
Market Div. Yield (%) 2.8%
JCI 4,585
Global Indices
Dual Listing (NYSE)
Stock Price Rating Reason
ADRO 585 Buy We expect ADRO to further strengthen, with
today’s trading range of 550-605
BBCA 13500 Buy With stochastic indicator to form a golden cross, we expect a upward movement for BBCA today in the range of 13100-12800
MIKA 2505 Buy
MIKA formed white candle with increasing
transaction volumes. We expect the stock to move upward today as stochastic indicator to form a golden cross. MIKA’S support-resistance level for today is 2430-2540
GGRM 50400 Buy GGRM remains strong with potential upside in the range of 49800-50900 for today.
MPPA 1980 Buy We expect MPPA to continue strengthening, with today’s trading range of 1930-2250
ASII 6175 Sell
Stochastic oscillator formed a dead cross. We expect downward movement for today in the range of 6050-6300
Price Chg %
Dow Jones 17,813.4 1.2 0.0
Nasdaq 5,116.1 13.3 0.3
Nikkei 19,847.6 -77 -0.4
ST Times 2,891.6 -31.9 -1.1
FTSE 6,337.6 60.4 1.0
Hang Seng 22,498.0 -90 -0.4
Chg %
USD IDR 13,690 -28 -0.2
10 yr Indo Govt bond (%) 8.60 -0.0 -0.5
10 yr US govt bond (%) 2.2 -0.01 -0.3
Spread (%) 6.37 -0.03 -0.2
EIDO 21.1 -0.0 -0.1
Foreign YtD (USDmn) (2,914) 6 -0.2
JCI Index, Avg 5D MA Value
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15
(Rpbn)Avg. 5 Day MA Trading Value (RHS) Price (LHS)
PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com TRIM DAILY 2
Tax amnesty buzz has yet shown any significant impact to property sales
We met with the owner of Raywhite Fatmawati to find a better view of secondary market’s performance
during the slow year. Here is our key takeaways:
Taxes confuses potential buyers
• On a secondary market context, the whole noise regarding property taxes had affected the overall buyers. Despite
the fact that the taxes are not applicable to secondary sales, thanks to the lack of socialization, the mass believes
that it does apply to every kind of sales hence dispiriting potential buyers. Although 5% might not seem much, it is
substantial enough to eliminate the already limited demand.
2015 was indeed a bad year for property
• The overall decline in sales affected both primary and secondary market sales. Given Raywhite’s large exposure to
secondary market properties (approx. 60% of their business are secondary market related), the amount of transac-
tions made were vastly decreased, especially during the past 5 months, whereas during the first quarter of 2015,
decent sales was still being made whilst near none were done during the 2nd.
The rumored price correction is not entirely true
• While it might be true that some decline in prices were experienced, it was very limited and does not represent the
whole market situation. The decline itself was the result of the abnormal growth that occurred during 2010 – 2013,
where shophouses in North Jakarta had appreciated as much as tripling their initial value over less than 3 years, as
much as reaching Rp12bn per unit in transacted value. The price spike occurred when the investors can no longer
sell the said unit at a price above their purchase price.
• However, North Jakarta has always been known for the area prone of price flipping, whilst South Jakarta is more of
a end-user area with much more stable price growth. Despite the recent noise regarding price cuts, average land
prices in South Jakarta areas such as Cipete, Cilandak, Abdul Majid etc had steadily appreciated from Rp18mn psm
to 23mn psm over 6 months. North Jakarta’s Raywhite offices are starting to expand to South Jakarta, bringing
along their investment-oriented clients with them, and if the investment trend continues, South Jakarta could
potentially experience price appreciation at the same pace as North Jakarta’s.
Tax amnesty has yet shown any impact to the overall sales
• During the past months where tax amnesty hooply was introduced, no significant sales activity nor anomalies was
seen at all. Our understanding is that given that tax amnesty is to be applied by the end of the year, there should
be a rather significant amount of potential buyers doing property window shopping, however, according to Ray-
white, the firm did not experience anything out of the ordinary. Properties at premium areas such as Pondok Indah
was still very hard to move, although, properties priced at below Rp5bn was relatively easier to sell. offshore pur-
chases was mentioned, typically related to properties priced at Rp30-50bn, however, was not much in volume and
doesnt really reflect the overall market. ([email protected])
PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com TRIM DAILY 3
News of the Day
BBNI: assets to increase by Rp12tn post asset re-
valuation
According to BBNI’s calculation, its assets would increase
by Rp12tn if it conducts asset revaluation. This would
also cause increasing tier-1 capital by 3% and hence,
bigger lending capacity. Most of assets to be revalued are
fixed assets, e.g., land, buildings. On a separate news,
BBNI remains optimistic to book positive earnings growth
next year by targeting 14-16% YoY loan growth and
lower provisioning. Source: Kontan & Investor Daily
Comment:
We’ve already assumed ~14% loan growth in 2016-17F –
please see our banks sectoral report dated Nov 16th,
2015. We have a Buy on BBNI with Rp5,500 TP (1.4x
2016F PBV). However, the share price has risen by 9%
mtd, providing less upside risk for now. With that being
said, we favour BBRI and BBTN for its much upsides from
executing government programs (KUR and public housing
program). ([email protected])
Govt claims to have built ~600k units of subsidized
houses
According to Ministry of Public Works and Housing, supply
of houses from “one million houses program” has reached
627,895 units. Source: Investor Daily
Comment:
Positive for BBTN since this shows the absence of near-
term supply-side problems, hence, this can be a potential
re-rating catalysts for the company. We have Buy on
BBTN with Rp1,550 TP (1.1x 2016F PBV) and the stock
cu r ren t l y t rades a t 0 .9x 2016F PBV.
Spain offers low-interest loans for infra projects
Spain offers up to EUR250mn loans for joint projects,
ranging from infrastructure to renewable energy, with
maturity date up to 40 years, and interest rate from 0-
1%. Sofyan Djalil, National Development Planning Minis-
ter, expressed his optimism that the planned EUR250mn
was the first stage of support from Spanish government,
and Spain will have a lot of opportunities to tap into
I n d o n e s i a . S o u r c e : T h e J a k a r t a P o s t
Govt to build 145km trans-Sulawesi railway
Connecting Makassar to Parepare. So far only 16km of
the railway has reached 80% of progress. The trans-
Sulawesi railway is expected to be in operation by 2018,
connecting airport in Sulawesi to Makassar New Port.
Jokowi further pledged an additional Rp2tn for the pro-
j e c t . S o u r c e : T h e J a k a r t a P o s t
WSKT: Acquires the whole Kanci-Probolinggo toll
road from MNC
WSKT now owns 99.99% of Waskita MNC Transjawa Toll
Road (WMTTR), post taking 38.5% of WMTTR from MNC
Toll Road. WSKT has allocated Rp757.5bn for the acquisi-
tion. Currently, Kanci-Pejagan section of the toll road has
operated, and with the acquisition. Pejagan-Pemalang and
Pasuruan-Probolinggo sections will come under WSKT as
well. Source: Investor Daily
Comment:
With the acquisition, WSKT will operate a total of 123.8km
of toll road, while currently Section I and Section II of
Pejagan Pemalang toll road, encompassing 20.2km has
reached almost 60% of progress. Thus, gaining profit from
the project was still be in a long-horizon. However, we
believe with the acquisition, there will be less bureaucracy
t o c o m p l e t e t h e w h o l e t o l l - r o a d .
Excise realization is expected to reach 95% of target
Directorate general of customs and excise expected that
customs and excise revenue to reach 95% of Rp194tn FY15
target. Up to 23 November 2015, it has reached Rp134.5tn
or 69% of FY15 budget; Rp104.2tn from excise tax,
Rp27.8tn import duties, and Rp3.2tn duties. Source: Bisnis
Indonesia.
EXCL: Launch commercial 4G LTE in 11 cities
The 11 cities are Pekanbaru, Batam, Palembang, Purwakar-
ta, Cirebon, Tegal, Perkalongan, Pacitan, Madura, Banjar-
masin, and Manado. The company also already migrate the
4G LTE spectrum allocation in Bogor and Medan to 1800Mhz
from previously 900Mhz. Source: Bisnis Indonesia
PPRO: to form JV with BKSL
Focusing on Rp17mn psm apartments, with worth estimat-
ed at Rp1.4tr for the first 3 towers. The project itself will
consist of 2 phases. PPRO will have less than 50% stake.
Source: Bank Indonesia ([email protected])
UNVR: Distributes interim dividend
UNVR decided to distribute Rp342/share interim dividend,
based on 31 Dec’ 15 book, with following details:
Cum dividend date : 1 December 2015
Ex-dividend date : 2 December 2015
Recording date : 4 December 2015
Payment date : 17 December 2015
Source: IDX
PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com TRIM DAILY 4
News of the Day
Arifin Panigoro (founder of MEDC) plans to acquire
76% of Newmont’s shares worth USD2.2bn
Arifin expects the acquisition to be completed by Decem-
ber 2015. First, Arifin will acquire 56% of Newmont
owned by Nusa Tenggara Partnership BV (consortium of
Newmont and Sumitomo). Second, Arifin to acquire
17.8% of Newmont’s shares from PT Pukuafu Indah, a
company owned by Yusuf Merukh. Third, Arifin to acquire
2.2% of PT Indonesia Masbaga. Source: Kontan
PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com TRIM DAILY 5
Table
Indo Market PE vs Regional (Weekly)
Indo Market PE vs 10yr Bond Yield
Oil Price (Brent), Coal Price (Newcastle), Gold
Foreign Fund Flow in last 5 & 30 days
5yr Bond Yield Indo (USD) vs US Bond Yield
CPO Price, Soybean Price (both 1m Futures)
-13-49
-216
-28 -7-73
-756
-173
-1,169
-498
-21
-980
(1,400)
(1,200)
(1,000)
(800)
(600)
(400)
(200)
0
IND
ON
ESIA
PH
ILIP
PIN
ES
SO
UTH
KO
REA
TH
AIL
AN
D
VIE
TN
AM
IND
IA
(USDmn) 5 Days 30 Days
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
12.0
13.0
14.0
15.0
16.0
17.0
18.0
Nov-
14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar-
15
Apr-
15
May-
15
Jun-
15
Jul-
15
Aug-
15
Sep-
15
Oct-
15
Nov-
15
(%)(X) JCI PE (LHS) Indo 10Yr Bond Yield (RHS)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Nov-1
4
Dec-14
Jan-15
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-
15
Mar-
15
Apr-
15
May-15
Jun-1
5
Jun-1
5
Jul-
15
Aug-15
Aug-15
Sep-1
5
Oct-
15
Oct-
15
Nov-1
5
(%) Bond Yield US Ind 5yr Bond Yield Indo in USD
500
700
900
1,100
1,300
1,500
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jun-15
Jul-
15
Aug-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-
15
Oct-
15
Nov-15
(USD/ Troy oz.)(USD)
Brent Crude Oil (bbl) (LHS) Coal (mt) (LHS) Gold (RHS)
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-
15
Apr-
15
May-15
Jun-1
5
Jul-
15
Aug-15
Sep-1
5
Oct-
15
Nov-1
5
(USD
Bushels)(MYR Tons)
CPO Malaysia (LHS) Soybean (RHS)
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
22.0
2010
2010
2010
2011
2011
2012
2012
2013
2013
2014
2014
2015
2015
(x)
Weekly Hang Seng Singapore Thailand Philippines Malaysia Indonesia
PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com TRIM DAILY 6
Table
INCO, ANTM vs Nickel price (LME)
Coal Price (Newcastle) vs Coal Sector
TINS vs Tin price (LME)
ANTM vs Gold price
CPO Price (1m Futures in Malaysia) vs CPO Sector
GIAA vs Brent Crude Oil
0
50
100
150
200
250
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Nov-1
4
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-
15
Apr-
15
May-15
Jun-1
5
Jul-
15
Aug-15
Sep-1
5
Oct-
15
(USD/MT)
Coal (LHS) COAL Sector (RHS)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Nov-1
4
Dec-14
Jan-15
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-
15
Apr-
15
Apr-
15
May-15
Jun-1
5
Jun-1
5
Jul-
15
Aug-15
Aug-15
Sep-1
5
Oct-
15
Oct-
15
Nov-1
5
(MYR / Ton)
CPO Malaysia (LHS) CPO Sector (RHS)
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
Nov-1
4
Dec-14
Jan-15
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-
15
Apr-
15
Apr-
15
May-15
Jun-1
5
Jun-1
5
Jul-
15
Aug-15
Aug-15
Sep-1
5
Oct-
15
Oct-
15
Nov-1
5
(USD /MT)(Rp)
INCO (LHS) ANTM (LHS) Nickel LME (RHS)
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
Nov-1
4
Dec-14
Jan-15
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-
15
Apr-
15
Apr-
15
May-15
Jun-1
5
Jun-1
5
Jul-
15
Aug-15
Aug-15
Sep-1
5
Oct-
15
Oct-
15
Nov-1
5
(USD troy oz.)(Rp)ANTM (LHS) Gold (RHS)
-
3,000
6,000
9,000
12,000
15,000
18,000
21,000
24,000
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Nov-1
4
Dec-14
Jan-15
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-
15
Apr-
15
May-15
Jun-15
Jun-15
Jul-
15
Aug-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-
15
Oct-
15
Nov-1
5
(USD/MT)(Rp) TINS (LHS) Tin LME (RHS)
0
20
40
60
80
100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Nov-1
4
Dec-14
Jan-15
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-
15
Apr-
15
Apr-
15
May-15
Jun-1
5
Jun-1
5
Jul-
15
Aug-15
Aug-15
Sep-1
5
Oct-
15
Oct-
15
Nov-1
5
(USD bbl)(Rp)
GIAA (LHS) Crude Oil Brent (RHS)
PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com TRIM DAILY 7
World Economic Calendar
Date Time Country Event Period Survey Actual Prior
11/16/2015 US Empire Manufacturing Nov -6.3 -10.74 -11.4
ID Trade Balance (USDmn) Oct 725 1019 1017
11/17/2015 ID Exports YoY (%) Oct -16.78 -20.98 -18.0
EC CPI MoM (%) Oct 0.1 0.1 0.2
EC CPI YoY (%) Oct F 0 0.1 0.0
EC CPI Core YoY (%) Oct F 1 1.1 1.0
11/17/2015 US CPI MoM (%) Oct 0.2 0.2 -0.2
US CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (%) Oct 0.2 0.2 0.2
US CPI YoY (%) Oct 0.1 0.2 0.0
US Industrial Production MoM (%) Oct 0.1 -0.2 -0.2
US Capacity Utilization Oct 77.5 77.5 77.5
ID Bank Indonesia Reference Rate 17-Nov 7.5 7.5 7.5
ID Bank Indonesia Lending Facility Rate 17-Nov 8 8 8.0
11/18/2016 US Net Long-term TIC Flows (USDbn) Sep -- 33.6 20.4
US Total Net TIC Flows (%) Sep -- -175.1 -9.2
US MBA Mortgage Applications 13-Nov -- 6.2 -1.3
US Housing Starts ('000') Oct 1160 1060 1,206
US Building Permits ('000') Oct 1147 1150 1103
11/19/2015 US Initial Jobless Claims ('000') 14-Nov 270 271 276
US Continuing Claims ('000') 7-Nov 2167 2175 2174
US Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 15-Nov -- 41.2 41.6
US Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Nov -0.5 1.9 -4.5
US Leading Index Oct 0.5 0.6 -0.2
11/23/2015 US Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Oct 0.08 -0.04 -0.37
US Markit US Manufacturing PMI Nov P 54 52.6 54.1
US Existing Home Sales (USDmn) Oct 5.4 5.36 5.55
11/24/2015 US Advance Goods Trade Balance (USDbn) Oct -61.9 -58.4 -58.6
US GDP Annualized QoQ (%) 3Q S 2.1 2.1 1.5
US Personal Consumption (%) 3Q S 3.2 3 3.2
US GDP Price Index (%) 3Q S 1.2 1.3 1.2
US Core PCE QoQ (%) 3Q S 1.3 1.3 1.3
US Consumer Confidence Index Nov 99.2 90.4 97.6
US Richmond Fed Manufact. Index Nov 1 -3 -1
11/25/2015 US MBA Mortgage Applications 20-Nov -- -3.2 6.2
US Personal Income (%) Oct 0.4 0.4 0.1
US Personal Spending (%) Oct 0.3 0.1 0.1
US Durable Goods Orders (%) Oct P 1.5 -1.2 -1.2
US Durables Ex Transportation (%) Oct P 0.4 -0.4 -0.4
US Initial Jobless Claims ('000') 21-Nov 271 260 271
US Continuing Claims ('000') 14-Nov 2140 2207 2175
US FHFA House Price Index MoM Sep 0.5 0.8 0.3
US Markit US Composite PMI Nov P -- 56.1 55
US Markit US Services PMI Nov P 55.1 56.5 54.8
US Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 22-Nov -- 40.9 41.2
US New Home Sales ('000') Oct 500 495 468
US U. of Mich. Sentiment Nov F 93 91.3 93.1
11/26/2015 EC M3 Money Supply YoY Oct 4.8 -- 4.9
11/27/2015 EC Consumer Confidence Nov F -- -- --
11/30/2015 US Chicago Purchasing Manager Nov 54 -- 56.2
US Pending Home Sales MoM Oct 1.3 -- -2.3
US Dallas Fed Manf. Activity Nov -- -- -12.7
12/01/2015 US Markit US Manufacturing PMI Nov F -- -- --
PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com TRIM DAILY 8
Corporate Action
Code Price
Exercise Maturity Emiten Description
INVS-W 165 8-May-15 Inovisi Infracom WARAN SERI I INOVISI INFRACOM
SUGI-W 100 21-May-15 Sugih Energy WARAN SERI II SUGIH ENERGY
MCOR-W 200 10-Jul-15 Bank Windu Kentjana International WARAN SERI I BANK WINDU KENTJANA INTERNATIONAL
GAMA-W 105 16-Jul-15 Gading Development WARAN SERI I GADING DEVELOPMENT
SUPR-W 4800 28-Aug-15 Solusi Tunas Pratama WARAN SERI I SOLUSI TUNAS PRATAMA
NIRO-W 110 11-Sep-15 Nirvana Development WARAN SERI I NIRVANA DEVELOPMENT
BSIM-W 149 11-Dec-15 Bank Sinar Mas WARAN SERI I BANK SINAR MAS
Warrant
PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com TRIM DAILY 9
Statistics
JCI Winners (%) JCI Losers (%) JCI Value (Rpbn) JCI Volume (mn Lot) JCI Freq (x)
YTD (Rp) -12.27% 5,630
YTD (USD) 5.67% 5,332
Moving Avg 20day 4,511 4,847
Moving Avg 50day 4,466 13.1
Moving Avg 200day 4,918 2.8%
Indonesia & Sectors +/- (%)YTD (%)
MSCI Indonesia 5,448.7 59.4 1.1 -12.1
JII 599.3 4.4 0.7 -13.3
LQ45 790.3 9.0 1.1 -12.1
JAKFIN Index 688.4 9.3 1.4 -5.9
JAKINFR Index 948.6 2.7 0.3 -18.2
JAKMINE Index 882.5 8.5 1.0 -35.5
JAKCONS Index 2,094.2 28.4 1.4 -3.8
JAKTRAD Index 826.2 5.1 0.6 -6.0
JAKMIND Index 1,080.9 -8.7 -0.8 -17.3
JAKBIND Index 406.4 6.2 1.5 -25.3
JAKPROP Index 486.2 3.2 0.7 -7.4
JAKAGRI Index 1,654.1 3.2 0.2 -29.6
Commodities +/- (%)YTD (%)
CRB Index 185.7 0.4 0.23 -19.3
Oil & Gas
Brent Crude Oil (USD/bbl) 46.2 0.1 0.11 -19.4
Nymex Oil (USD/bbl) 43.0 0.2 0.40 -19.2
Natural Gas 2.2 0.0 0.27 -23.9
COAL (AUS Daily) 53.9 -0.3 -0.46 -13.1
Industrial Metals
Aluminum (USD/tonne) 1,459.3 13.5 0.93 -20.4
Nickel (USD/tonne) 8,910 140 1.60 -41.2
Tin (USD/tonne) 14,745 320 2.22 -24.0
Precious Metal
Gold (USD/t oz.) 1,070.0 -3.8 -0.35 -9.6
Silver (USD/t oz.) 14.2 -0.0 -0.01 -9.2
Soft Commodities
CPO (Malaysia - Rm/tonne) 2,093 -35.0 -1.64 -8.6
Rubber (JPY/kg) 1,236 15.8 1.30 -24.7
Corn (USD/bu.) 366 1.8 0.48 -7.8
Wheat (USD/bu.) 479 -5.0 -1.03 -18.8
Soybeans (USD/bu.) 875 11.5 1.33 -14.1
Volume (m)
Value (Rpbn)
Mkt Cap (Rptr)
Market 2015 P/E (x)
Market Div. Yield (%)
CPO (Malaysia - Rm/tonne)
Kurs Region +/- (%) YT D (%)
USDEUR Euro 0.941 0.002 0.2 17.7
USDGBP UK 0.661 -0.002 -0.3 10.2
USDCHF Switzerland 1.022 0.005 0.5 2.2
USDCAD Canada 1.329 -0.002 -0.1 10.8
USDAUD Australia 1.379 0.001 0.1 14.9
USDNZD New Zealand 1.520 -0.006 -0.4 16.9
USDJPY Japan 122.74 0.210 0.2 2.5
USDCNY China 6.39 0.00 0.0 3.1
USDHKD Hongkong 7.751 0.000 0.0 -0.6
USDSGD Singapore 1.405 -0.005 -0.4 8.1
Rupiah Indonesia 13,690 -28.0 -0.2 10.5
Indices Region +/- (%) YT D (%)
MXWO MSCI Word 1,697.8 2.37 0.14 -0.69
SPX S&P 500 2,088.9 -0.27 -0.01 1.46
US
17,813.4 1.2 0.01 -0.05
Nasdaq US 5,116.1 13.34 0.26 8.02
Europe
EURO 50 Europe 380.8 5.20 1.38 11.19
FTSE London 6,337.6 60.41 0.96 -3.48
DAX Jerman 11,169.5 235.6 2.15 13.91
CAC France 4,893.0 72.71 1.51 14.51
SMI Swiss 8,934.5 125.95 1.43 -0.54
BRIC
BOVESPA Brazil 46,866.6 -1,418 -2.94 -6.28
MICEX Russia 1,833.5 23.48 1.30 31.29
SENSEX India 25,775.7 0.0 0.00 -6.27
NIFTY India 7,831.6 0.0 0.00 -5.45
SHCOMP China 3,647.9 31.82 0.88 12.77
SZCOMP China 2,343.6 43.53 1.89 65.60
Nikkei Japan 19,847.6 -77.3 -0.39 13.73
TPX Japan 1,594.7 -11.27 -0.70 13.30
HSI Hong kong 22,498.0 -90 -0.40 -4.69
KOSPI S.Korea 2,009.4 -6.87 -0.34 4.90
TAIEX Taiwan 8,386.1 -14.0 -0.17 -9.90
FSSTI Singapore 2,891.6 -31.91 -1.09 -14.07
ASEAN
SET Thailand 1,381.5 -3.46 -0.25 -7.76
PCOMP Philipines 7,059.1 66.5 0.95 -2.37
KLCI Malaysia 1,684.4 7.39 0.44 -4.36
VNINDEX Vietnam 595.7 1.87 0.31 9.18
Developed ASIA
Dow Jones Industrial
-0.4
-0.8
-0.9
-1.2
-1.4
-4.5
-4.5
-5.0
-6.0
-9.9
ICBP
PGAS
ISAT
ASII
PTPP
BIRD
SCMA
BHIT
CMNP
HERO3.8
3.1
2.9
2.6
2.6
2.4
2.3
2.0
1.1
1.0
BBRI
LPPF
EMTK
BMRI
INTP
UNVR
KLBF
GGRM
HMSP
TLKM
237
212
195
163
146
139
122
77
76
67
- 100 200 300
BBRI
TLKM
ASII
BBNI
BMRI
BBCA
SSMS
MYRX
KLBF
UNVR
211
180
117
74
73
65
63
63
62
59
0 100 200 300
META
ANTM
MYRX
SSMS
TLKM
INDY
SSIA
BIPI
SMRU
ASRI
7,195
6,496
6,166
6,018
5,380
4,894
4,484
4,445
3,978
3,828
ANTM
SCMA
ASII
BBRI
SSMS
KREN
KLBF
UNTR
LMPI
BMRI
JCI 4,585.5 40.2 0.9%
PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com TRIM DAILY 10
Historical Technical Trading Ideas (1)
115 out of 140 (82.14%) our technical calls are Correct during 02-30 Oct’15
Ticker Last Technical Call 30-Oct-15 Chg (%) Recommendation
JCI 4,472 Weakening
4,455 -0.38% Correct
ASII 5,800 Spec Buy
5,900 1.72% Correct
SGRO 1,100 Spec Buy
1,165 5.91% Correct
BBNI 4,815 Spec Buy
4,755 -1.25% Incorrect\
BBRI 10,750 Spec Buy
10,525 -2.09% Incorrect\
PTPP 3,675 Trading Sell
3,810 3.67% Correct
GIAA 325 Sell
320 -1.54% Correct
Ticker Last Technical Call 29-Oct-15 Chg (%) Recommendation
JCI 4,609 Weakening
4,472 -2.97% Correct
TLKM 2,795 Sell
2,730 -2.33% Correct
JSMR 5,250 Sell
4,885 -6.95% Correct
SMGR 10,325 Sell
9,800 -5.08% Correct
LSIP 1,550 Buy
1,555 0.32% Correct
BBNI 5,025 Sell
4,815 -4.18% Correct
BBRI 11,100 Sell
10,750 -3.15% Correct
Ticker Last Technical Call 28-Oct-15 Chg (%) Recommendation
JCI 4,674 Weakening
4,609 -1.40% Correct
SGRO 1,085 Buy
1,090 0.46% Correct
LSIP 1,505 Buy
1,550 2.99% Correct
HMSP 84,250 Buy
92,000 9.20% Correct
JSMR 5,325 Buy
5,250 -1.41% Incorrect
BBNI 5,175 Sell
5,025 -2.90% Correct
BBRI 11,600 Sell
11,100 -4.31% Correct
Ticker Last Technical Call 27-Oct-15 Chg (%) Recommendation
JCI 4,692 Profit taking
4,674 -0.38% Correct
BBCA 13,650 Buy
13,650 0.00% Correct
BBTN 1,185 Buy
1,210 2.11% Correct
KLBF 1,465 Buy
1,455 -0.68% Incorrect
GGRM 46,350 Sell
45,900 -0.97% Correct
BBRI 11,600 Sell
11,600 0.00% Correct
BBNI 5,300 Sell
5,175 -2.36% Correct
Ticker Last Technical Call 26-Oct-15 Chg (%) Recommendation
JCI 4,653 strengthened
4,692 0.83% Correct
PTPP 3,855 Buy
3,880 0.65% Correct
BBTN 1,185 Buy
1,185 0.00% Correct
TLKM 2,760 Buy
2,805 1.63% Correct
KLBF 1,460 Buy
1,465 0.34% Correct
BBNI 5,275 Buy
5,300 0.47% Correct
BBRI 11,200 Buy
11,600 3.57% Correct
PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com TRIM DAILY 11
Historical Technical Trading Ideas (2)
Ticker Last Technical Call 23-Oct-15 Chg (%) Recommendation
JCI 4,585 strengthened
4,653 1.50% Correct
PTPP 3,755 Buy
3,855 2.66% Correct
BBNI 5,225 Buy
5,275 0.96% Correct
BBRI 10,700 Buy
11,200 4.67% Correct
SMRA 1,510 Buy
1,620 7.28% Correct
BBTN 1,165 Buy
1,185 1.72% Correct
SRIL 388 Trd. Buy
389 0.26% Correct
Ticker Last Technical Call 22-Oct-15 Chg (%) Recommendation
JCI 4,605 Weakening
4,585 -0.45% Correct
AALI 20,400 Buy
21,475 5.27% Correct
LSIP 1,490 Buy
1,535 3.02% Correct
SMRA 1,475 Buy
1,510 2.37% Correct
BBRI 10,550 Buy
10,700 1.42% Correct
SMGR 11,250 Sell
10,725 -4.67% Correct
LPKR 1,300 Sell
1,295 -0.38% Correct
Ticker Last Technical Call 21-Oct-15 Chg (%) Recommendation
JCI 4,586 Strengthened
4,605 0.42% Correct
SMGR 10,575 Buy
11,250 6.38% Correct
KLBF 1,455 Buy
1,435 -1.37% Incorrect
AALI 19,275 Buy
20,400 5.84% Correct
LSIP 1,360 Buy
1,490 9.56% Correct
TLKM 2,710 Buy
2,730 0.74% Correct
AKRA 6,025 Buy
6,075 0.83% Correct
Ticker Last Technical Call 20-Oct-15 Chg (%) Recommendation
JCI 4,570 Strengthened
4,586 0.35% Correct
JSMR 5,550 Buy
5,550 0.00% Correct
PWON 394 Buy
397 0.76% Correct
AALI 18,900 Buy
19,275 1.98% Correct
UNTR 19,625 Buy
19,975 1.78% Correct
KLBF 1,450 Spec Buy
1,455 0.34% Correct
SMGR 10,625 Sell
10,575 -0.47% Correct
Ticker Last Technical Call 19-Oct-15 Chg (%) Recommendation
JCI 4,522 strengthened
4,570 1.06% Correct
ggrm 42,800 Buy
43,450 1.52% Correct
MIKA 2,940 Buy
2,945 0.17% Correct
ASII 6,300 Buy
6,500 3.17% Correct
PGAS 3,065 Buy
3,020 -1.47% Incorrect
INCO 2,230 Spec Buy
2,280 2.24% Correct
ADRO 640 Spec Buy
645 0.78% Correct
PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com TRIM DAILY 12
Historical Technical Trading Ideas (3)
Ticker Last Technical Call 16-Oct-15 Chg (%) Recommendation
JCI 4,507 strengthened
4,522 0.33% Correct
BBNI 5,025 Buy
5,100 1.49% Correct
BBRI 10,125 Buy
10,300 1.73% Correct
SILO 12,350 Buy
12,175 -1.42% incorrect
ITMG 10,700 Buy
10,125 -5.37% incorrect
PTPP 3,655 Sell
3,585 -1.92% Correct
GGRM 42,975 Sell
42,800 -0.41% Correct
Ticker Last Technical Call 15-Oct-15 Chg (%) Recommendation
JCI 4,483 strengthened
4,507 0.54% Correct
WIKA 3,050 Buy
3,005 -1.48% Correct
LPKR 1,225 Buy
1,235 0.82% Correct
LSIP 1,385 Buy
1,380 -0.36% Incorrect
SILO 12,450 Buy
12,350 -0.80% Incorrect
BWPT 268 Trading Sell
257 -4.10% Incorrect
PGAS 2,965 Sell
2,995 1.01% Correct
Ticker Last Technical Call 13-Oct-15 Chg (%) Recommendation
JCI 4,631 Profit taking
4,483 -3.19% Correct
GGRM 44,325 Sell
43,000 -2.99% Correct
ROTI 1,160 Sell
1,100 -5.17% Correct
MAPI 3,125 Sell
3,000 -4.00% Correct
TLKM 2,695 Sell
2,640 -2.04% Correct
BBNI 5,025 Sell
4,835 -3.78% Correct
INCO 2,510 Sell
2,320 -7.57% Correct
Ticker Last Technical Call 12-Oct-15 Chg (%) Recommendation
JCI 4,589 strengthened
4,631 0.90% Correct
PTPP 3,805 Buy
3,750 -1.45% Correct
GGRM 43,425 Buy
44,325 2.07% Correct
SMRA 1,420 Buy
1,440 1.41% Incorrect
BBRI 10,550 Buy
10,800 2.37% Incorrect
BBTN 1,095 Buy
1,135 3.65% Correct
SRIL 392 Trd. Buy
387 -1.28% Correct
Ticker Last Technical Call 9-Oct-15 Chg (%) Recommendation
JCI 4,589 strengthened
4,631 0.90% Correct
NIRO 128 Buy
129 0.78% Correct
DMAS 230 Buy
229 -0.43% Correct
SMCB 1,100 Buy
1,145 4.09% Incorrect
ITMG 10,500 Buy
10,700 1.90% Incorrect
SRIL 392 Buy
387 -1.28% Correct
PGAS 3,000 Sell
3,130 4.33% Correct
PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com TRIM DAILY 13
Historical Technical Trading Ideas (4)
Ticker Last Technical Call 8-Oct-15 Chg (%) Recommendation
JCI 4,487 strengthened
4,491 0.10% Correct
TLKM 2,740 Buy
2,710 -1.09% Correct
TBIG 6,400 Buy
6,450 0.78% Correct
PWON 397 Buy
390 -1.76% Incorrect
ASRI 398 Buy
377 -5.28% Incorrect
ASII 6,125 Sell
6,325 3.27% Correct
PGAS 2,950 Sell
2,890 -2.03% Correct
Ticker Last Technical Call 7-Oct-15 Chg (%) Recommendation
JCI 4,589 strengthened
4,631 0.90% Correct
TINS 710 Buy
720 1.41% Correct
INCO 2,310 Buy
2,510 8.66% Correct
BBNI 5,025 Sell
5,025 0.00% Incorrect
BBRI 10,550 Sell
10,800 2.37% Incorrect
PWON 416 Buy
413 -0.72% Correct
SMGR 10,550 Buy
10,600 0.47% Correct
Ticker Last Technical Call 6-Oct-15 Chg (%) Recommendation
JCI 4,344 strengthened
4,446 2.35% Correct
AALI 20,325 Buy
20,000 -1.60% Correct
BMRI 8,200 Buy
8,900 8.54% Correct
PWON 367 Buy
383 4.36% Incorrect
BBNI 4,400 Buy
4,535 3.07% Incorrect
ITMG 10,000 Sell
10,175 1.75% Correct
SMGR 10,050 Spec Buy
10,075 0.25% Correct
Ticker Last Technical Call 5-Oct-15 Chg (%) Recommendation
JCI 4,208 strengthened
4,344 3.23% Correct
ITMG 9,725 Spec Buy
10,000 2.83% Correct
PWON 339 Spec Buy
367 8.26% Correct
ANTM 404 Spec Buy
404 0.00% Incorrect
PTPP 3,585 Buy
3,700 3.21% Incorrect
GGRM 44,450 Buy
46,600 4.84% Correct
SSMS 1,730 Buy
1,795 3.76% Correct
Ticker Last Technical Call 2-Oct-15 Chg (%) Recommendation
JCI 4,255 Weakening
4,208 -1.11% Correct
PTPP 3,580 Buy
3,585 0.14% Correct
ASII 5,275 Buy
5,125 -2.84% Correct
AALI 19,300 Buy
19,100 -1.04% Incorrect
TINS 680 Buy
665 -2.21% Incorrect
INCO 2,545 Buy
2,480 -2.55% Correct
GGRM 43,300 Buy
44,450 2.66% Correct
PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com TRIM DAILY 14
Research Team
Sebastian Tobing, CFA
Head of Research & Institutional Business
Gina Novrina Nasution, CSA
Technical Analyst
Paula Ruth
Equity Analyst
Angga Aditya Assaf
Equity Analyst
Willinoy Sitorus
Equity Analyst
M. Dian Octiana
Equity Analyst
Wisnu Budhiargo
Equity Analyst
Patricia Gabriela
Equity Analyst
Kevie Aditya
Equity Analyst
Jennifer Yapply
Equity Analyst
Dini Agmivia Anggraeni
Fixed Income/Macro Analyst
Yeni Simanjuntak
On-the-ground Analyst
Rovandi
Research Associate
Institutional Sales Team
Daniel Dwi Seputro
Head of Institutional Equity Sales
Dewi Yusnita
Equity Institutional Sales
Meitawati
Equity Institutional Sales
Fachruly Fiater
Equity Institutional Sales
Henry Sidarta
Equity Institutional Sales
Raditya Andyono
Equity Institutional Sales
Nancy Pardede
Equity Institutional Sales
Retail Sales Team
JAKARTA AREA
Nathanael Benny Prasetyo
Head of Retail ECM
Ariawan Anwar
Artha Graha, Jakarta
Windra Djulnaily
Pluit, Jakarta
Ferry Zabur
Kelapa Gading, Jakarta
Eddy Sumarli
Puri Kencana, Jakarta
Very Wijaya
BSD, Tangerang
SUMATERA
Juliana Effendy
Medan, Sumatera Utara
Tantie Rivi Watie
Pekanbaru, Riau
EAST INDONESIA
Sonny Muljadi
Surabaya, Jawa Timur
Ni Made Dwi Hapsari Wijayanti
Denpasar, Bali
Ivan Jaka Perdana
Malang, Jawa Timur
Arifin Pribadi
Makasar, Sulawesi Selatan
CENTRAL JAVA, AREA
Agus Bambang Suseno
Solo, Jawa Tengah
Mariana Kusuma Wati
Semarang, Jawa Tengah
WEST JAVA
Asep Saepudin
Bandung, Jawa Barat
Ariffianto
Cirebon, Jawa Barat
PT Trimegah Securities Tbk
Gedung Artha Graha 18th Floor
Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 52-53
Jakarta 12190, Indonesia
t. +62-21 2924 9088
f. +62-21 2924 9150
www.trimegah.com
DISCLAIMER
This report has been prepared by PT Trimegah Securities Tbk on behalf of itself and its affiliated companies and is provided for information
purposes only. Under no circumstances is it to be used or considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy. This report has
been produced independently and the forecasts, opinions and expectations contained herein are entirely those of Trimegah Securities.
While all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that information contained herein is not untrue or misleading at the time of publication,
Trimegah Securities makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness and it should not be relied upon as such. This report is
provided solely for the information of clients of Trimegah Securities who are expected to make their own investment decisions without reliance
on this report. Neither Trimegah Securities nor any officer or employee of Trimegah Securities accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or
consequential loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. Trimegah Securities and/or persons connected with it may have acted
upon or used the information herein contained, or the research or analysis on which it is based, before publication. Trimegah Securities may in
future participate in an offering of the company’s equity securities.
This report was prepared, approved, published and distributed by PT Trimegah Securities Tbk located outside of the United States (a “non-US
Group Company”). This report is distributed in the U.S. by Enclave Capital LLC (“Enclave Capital”), a U.S. registered broker dealer, on behalf of
PT Trimegah Securities Tbk only to major U.S. institutional investors (as defined in Rule 15a-6 under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934
(the “Exchange Act”)) pursuant to the exemption in Rule 15a-6 and any transaction effected by a U.S. customer in the securities described in
this report must be effected through Enclave Capital. Neither the report nor any analyst who prepared or approved the report is subject to U.S.
legal requirements or the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, Inc. (“FINRA”) or other regulatory requirements pertaining to research
reports or research analysts. No non-US Group Company is registered as a broker-dealer under the Exchange Act or is a member of the
Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, Inc. or any other U.S. self-regulatory organization.