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7/23/2019 201508 Corporate Presentation PMAM3 v18(EL)
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Corporate Presentation
7/23/2019 201508 Corporate Presentation PMAM3 v18(EL)
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This presentation may contain certain forward-looking statements and information relating to Paranapanema S.A. (the
Company) that reflect the current views and/or expectations of the Company and its management with respect to its
performance, business and future events. Forward-looking statements include, without limitation, any statement that may
predict, forecast, indicate or imply future results, performance or achievements, and may contain words and/or any other
phrases of similar meaning. Such statements are subject to a number of risks, uncertainties and assumptions. We caution you
that a number of important factors could cause actual results to differ materially from the plans, objectives, expectations,
estimates and intentions expressed in this presentation.
In no event, neither the Company nor any of its subsidiaries, affiliates, directors, officers, agents or employees shall be liable
before any third party (including investors) for any investment or business decision made or action taken in reliance on the
information and statements contained in this presentation or for any consequential, special or similar damages.
This presentation and all its contents are proprietary information and may not be reproduced or otherwise disseminated in
whole or in part without the prior written consent of the Company. The information contained in this presentation is subject to
change from time to time without notice and the Company is under no obligation to keep you advised of such changes
Disclaimer
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1
2 5
4
3
6Company Overview
Financials
Copper Sector
Agenda
Business Model
PMAM at a glance
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4
1
2 5
4
3
6Company Overview
Financials
Copper Sector
Agenda
Business Model
PMAM at a glance
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Market(finishedproducts)
PMAM at a glancePositioning overview
Semi-Finished(rods, wires, tubes,
bars, laminates, etc.)
MINING SMELTING & REFINING DOWNSTREAM(Products)
PMAMs PresenceCopper flowchart
Largest Brazilian supplier of
copper rods and wires
3 processing plants forrefined copper and scrap
Sole Brazilian cathode
producer
Primary Copper~280 kt
Copper Products~180 kt
Sole Brazilian smelter and refiner, with strong positioning in the value chain
By-
products(H2SO4, anodic
slime and slag)
Cathode(~99.9% copper)
Anode(~99.5% copper)
Blister(~98% copper)
CopperConcentrate
(~28% copper)
Copper Ore(1.0% copper)
Gold
Silver
PMAM is present
Cathodes Sales
~100 kt
Scrap
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Operations
Products and Brazilian Market Share (2014)*
BRAZILPERU
CHILE
Primary Copper & Copper Products
Copper
Concentrate
Copper Products
Copper Products
~2,000
employees
Cathode
53% Share
Rods and Wires
42% Share
Tubes
46% Share
Rolled
30% Share
Bars
15% Share
*Source: Company, Sindicel and CRU
PMAM at a glanceBusiness segments and operations
Diversification between products and markets protects margins
Segments Breakdown (% of 2Q15 Revenues)
Copper ProductsB2B and B2C
(semi-finished and
finished products)
By-products(B2B products)
100% of refined
copper in Brazil
Very low
associated cost
Different types of
sectors and clients
Domestic Market
Export Market
Primary Copper
(refining - cathodes)
2Q15
12%
88%
68%
32%
37%
63%
30%
57%
13%
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1961 Paranapanema
was established
1971 IPO
Key Operations
Mining & Construction
Focused on Non-ferrous metals
Became largest Brazilian Copper producer
Capacity Expansion and Technology
upgrade by 2012
Listed on BM&FBovespas Novo Mercado
Paranapanema 2018 Project (PMA-2018)
Recovery begins in 2013
Re-defined business model:
Returns on added capacity
Change in management:
Managing-by-the-penny
Management alignment:
Variable compensation
Long-term gains and better processes legacy
PMAM at a glanceRecent organizational emphasizes corporate governance
New management has shifted focus to increase ROIC
Timeline Shareholding Structure
Locals
24%
17%
12%7%
6%
11%
11%
12%Foreign
Individuals
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PMAM at a glancePMA 2018: long term plan to sustain profitability and stabilize results
Maximizing productivity
on existing assets
Growing abovemarket average
Adding selected new
opportunities surrounding
existing assetsIncrease ROIC
metrics
Meritocracy Cultural
Reshape
Process
ROIC-centered management reflected in share price
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124151 140
120
2013 2014 2016E 2018E
124
69
144120
114%
57%
120%
100%
2013 2014 2016E 2018E
257 238280 290
2013 2014 2016E 2018E
2,047 2,0721,840 1,748
615 554 515 489
2013 2014 2016E 2018E
Note: E = expected
PMAM at a glancePMA 2018 KPIs: a guidance to recovery
Cathode Production (Kt) Working Capital (# days)
Transformation Cost and SG&A (R$/t) Capex (R$ Million) and as % of Depreciation
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Priority
OPERATINGEXCELLENCE
Impact Results
Cost controlTransformation cost/t: Reduced by 5% (2014x2013)
SG&A: Reduced by 17% (2014x2013)
Cast & Roll ramp-up From 40% to 68% capacity utilization
Capex Reduced by 65% (R$69MM vs. 14 budget)
HUMANCAPITAL
Board of Directors
Audit Council
Committees
70% replaced, Independent Chairman
40% replaced
Monthly operational cycle
Headcount
C level change
-15% (2014 x 2013)
65% (1/3 downsized / 50% replaced)
Long term planning 5 year business plan PMA 2018OTHER
PMAM at a glanceEnhancements achieved so far
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Gross Profit and Gross Margin EBITDAa and EBITDAa Margin Free Cash Flow1
Net Profit and Net Margin
1 Free Cash Flow: operating cash flow - capex2 Plain 2014 EBITDA Margin, Bloomberg data
Accumulated Profit/Losses Peers EBITDA Margin (%)2
0.52.0
5.2
9.6
14.0 14.4
Jiangxi Aurubis PMA MagnesitaUsiminas Ferbasa
Locals exposed to Metallurgy
Smelters
(R$ MM e %)
PMAM at a glanceFinancials
-15
-72
13180 74
-108-1,3%
-6,6%
10,6%
6,1%6,1%
-9,3%
1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15
Net Profit Net Margin
-234
-303
-169
-97
32
-73
1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15
75 80105
123 125
5
6,9%7,4%
8,5%9,4% 10,3%
0,4%
1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15
Gross Profit Gross Margin
5773
109 120 109
4
5,2%
6,7%
8,8% 9,1% 9,0%
0,4%
1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15
Adjusted EBITDA Adjusted EBITDA Margin
152
-29
397
84168
-4501Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15
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1,079999
1,590
174
30470 42
Cash 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Gross Debt
Working Capital (R$ Million)
Net Debt/LTM EBITDAaCash & Debt (R$ Million)
PMAM at a glanceFinancials: strong balance sheet and efficient working capital usage
Maturity Schedule (R$ Million)
Cash = ~2 years of amortization
1.165 1.246 1.3331.590
1.995
506257 285
511
868
659
988 1.048 1.079 1.127
2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15
Gross Debt Net Debt Cash
2,2x
1,5x
1,5x
1,0x
0,8x
1,6x
2,5x
4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15
665
381 348 326
783
2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15
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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
PMAM at a glanceSector overview: copper market outlook
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027
Possible Projects
Probable Projects
Highly Probable Projects
Base Case Production Capability
Primary Demand
Global copper imbalance to sustain high TC/RCs that together with efficient risk management should continue to
benefit margins
Global Copper Production and Primary Demand (Mt)1 TC/RCs (US$/t and R$/t) 2 Quoted Benchmark
1 Source: Wood Mackenzie March 20152TC/RC = Treatment Charge/Refining Charge (discount miners give to smelters to transform concentrate in refined copper)3 Bloomberg, Company data
Smelters: Industry Bottleneck (Mt) 1 Metal Premium (US$/t) Cathode3
Domestic Premium
Exports Premium16 16 17
18 1919
21
15 15 1616 17
1819
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E
Concentrate Production Smelter Production
254 310 352388
510610
447 519
688838
1,199
1,824
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 YTD
US$/t R$/t
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Comparable smelter valuations Country Capacity (Kt) Costs (US$ M) Cost/t
First Quantum Sentinel Smelter Zambia 300 690 2,300
Jinchuan Copper (phase 1) China 400 2,000 5,000
Freeport / PT Aneka Tambang
(estimate)Indonesia 300 2,200 7,333
Average (in US$) 1,630 4,878
Country Capacity (Kt) Market Cap (US$ M)* Cost/t
Paranapanema Brazil 280 416 1,486
PMAM at a glanceHigh substitution cost restraining increase in smelting capacity
Smelting capacity demands large investments, not to mention working capital. Therefore, additional
capacity is unlikely at current TC/RCs levels
Source: Macquarie Research
*PMAM3 share pri ce of R$3.94 and US$/R$ rate of 3.02 as of May 11, 2015
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EBITDA Margin (%) Smelters/Refiners Net Margin (%)
EV/EBITDA 2015 P/E 2015
Source: Bloomberg. 2014 figures and multiples updated as of May 11, 2015
0.5
2.0
5.2
Jiangxi Aurubis PMA
0.4
0.9
2.6
Jiangxi Aurubis PMA
13.2
8.2
5.8
Jiangxi Aurubis PMA
29.0
14.4
5.9
Jiangxi Aurubis PMA
PMAM at a glanceComparable companies
Smelters with similar operation to Paranapanema are the correct peers to be compared with
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PMAM at a glanceYTD share price performance (+5%*)
Source: Bloomberg
* Until August 3, 2015
jan-14
jan-14
mar-14
abr-14
mai-14
mai-14
jun-14
jul-14
ago-14
set-14
out-14
nov-14
dez-14
jan-15
fev-15
mar-15
abr-15
mai-15
jun-15
jul-15
PMA Aurubis Vale Gerdau Usiminas Magnesita Fesa Ibov Copper CSN
(Base 100)
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Establishing a culture of cost and asset efficiency
ROIC driving decision-making process
Strict capital usage policy
Risk management minimizing results volatility
1
2
3
4
5
PMAM at a glanceKey investment highlights
6
Sustainable results maximizing shareholders returns
7
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1
2 5
4
3
6Company Overview
Financials
Copper Sector
Agenda
Business Model
PMAM at a glance
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Constitution in 1961 heavy construction IPO in 1971
Pension funds take over the control (1996)
Concentration in non-ferrous (largest copper producer in Brazil)
Financial (2005), corporate and fiscal restructuring (2009)
Private capital increase (2008)
Investment plan for expansion and modernization R$702 million Organizational restructuring
Construction of tubes plant in Utinga (Santo Andr SP)
Sale of non core assets
Dias dvila (BA) capacity expansion Entrance to Novo Mercado (BM&FBOVESPA)
Launch of new tubes plant in Utinga
Change of CEO (commodity sector professional) New risk management policy
Processes reengineering
60% of the leadership is replaced
PMA 2018 Project
Operational Efficiency + Risk Management = Sustainable Results2015 - 2018
2014
2013
2012
2011
2000 - 2010
1960 1999
Company OverviewHistory marked by several restructurings and poor risk management
Current focus is to maximize capacity utilization, reduce costs and improve risk management seeking sustainable
and improved results
PMAcontractorand
miner
Transitiontocoppe
r
refiner
Stableresultsa
nd
growth
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Business Segments*
PrimaryCopper
(34%)
C
opperProducts
(59%)
Co-products
(7%)
Rods: 220 kt Wires: 80 kt
Tubes: 35 kt Laminates: 26 kt Bars: 12 kt Fittings: 4 kt
Diasdvila
Utinga
andSerra
Diasdvila
Diasdvila
H2SO4
Sulphuric Acid: 560 kt
Gold
Silver
Anodic Slime: 540 t Slag: 396 kt
Cathodes: 280 kt
*Numbers refer to installed capacity and percentages refer to share of 2014 Net Revenues
Company OverviewBusiness segments and installed capacity
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Competitors
Domestic:
- Ibrame
- Prysmian
Foreign:
- Codelco (Chile)
- ILO (Peru)- Aurubis (Germany)
- Antofagasta (Chile)
- Glencore (UK/Switzerland)
Domestic:
- Termomecnica
- Cecil
- Ibrame
- Plasinco
Foreign:
- Nacobre and IUSA (Mexico)
- Ceper and Indeco (Peru)- Nexans (Canada)
- Aurubis (Germany)
Domestic:
- Termomecnica
Foreign:
- Aurubis (Germany)
Products
Copper Rod Drawn Bare Wire
Cathodes
Laminates
Copper Products
Semi-Finished FinishedPrimary Copper(smelting and refining) Co-Products
Semi-Finished
Copper Products
Finished
Industrial Tubes Bars and Profiles
Tubes Connections Wires
Anodic Slime
Sulphuric
AcidIron
Silicate
Domestic:
- Galvani
- Vale
Foreign:
- Aurubis (Germany)
- Glencore (UK/Switzerland)
Company OverviewBusiness segments and competition overview
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44%
56%
78%
22%
35% 65%
34%
58%
8%
49%
27%
9%
4%3%
10%
Argentina
Japan
USA
UKOthers International
Trading
Companies
32%
27%
7%
7%
6%
5%
3%2%
12%
Eletroelectronics
Civil
Construction
Enamelled
Re-sale
Energy
Mecanic and
Metallurgy
Cooling
FertilizerOthers
2014 Revenue Per Segment and Markets
Domestic Market
Export Market
Revenue Per Sector
Primary Copper
(refining - cathodes)
Copper ProductsB2B and B2C (semi-finished and finished
products)
By-products
(B2B products)
Exports Per Region
100% of refined
copper in Brazil
Very low
associated cost
Different types of
sectors and clients
Company OverviewRevenue breakdown per segment
Segment diversification and strong positioning reduces impacts from markets fluctuations
i
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Production plants
Distribution center
Paranapanema has 3 processing plants and one distribution center
Proximity between facilities and main customers (South and Southeast
regions, countrys highest GDPs) is a strategic advantage
Imported copper concentrate arrives at Arat Port (Bahia), 24 km distant from
the plant
Estimated 62% market share in scrap origination all over Brazil
Sulfuric acid sales (by-product) within a 50km radius
Copper Concentrate
Origin
Utinga Santo Andr(SP)
Production of copper and
brass bars, wires,
laminates, tubes and
bronze
Serra (ES)Production of copper and
bronze fittings for civil
construction
Dias Dvila (BA)Smelting and refining of
primary copper, cathodes,
rods, drawn wire and by-
products
Chile
Main supplier
of copper
concentrate
Peru
Supplier of
copper
concentrate
Production Facilities and Raw Materials Supply
Company OverviewWell located facilities: smart logistics and arbitrage between domestic and
export sales
Casting
Refining
Electrolysis
Lamination
Stretching
Copper concentrate
(Third-party raw materials)
Estimated time betweenpurchasing concentrate and
delivering products
1month
10
Days
10
Days
22
days
10
Days
10
Days
Total cycle: 90 days
Production Timing
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1
2 5
4
3
6Company Overview
Financials
Copper Sector
Agenda
Business Model
PMAM at a glance
B i M d l
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Risk
Management
- R$ 5 bi
- R$ 4 bi
Tota
lRevenues
MetalRe
venues
TC/R
C+
Premiu
ms+
By-pro
ducts
Me
talCost
Financial
+ D&ACT* +
SG&A
EBTEBITDA
*CT: transformation cost
Risk Management Premium Management Costs Control
Mitigate FX and commodity volatility
impact on results
Hedge of metal exposure
Strict dollar-denominated cash flow
hedge
Well structured governance, policies and
controls
TC/RC
Optimization of premium matrix
Price premiums denominated in US
dollars
Premiums not linked to LME quotes
Arbitrage between products to maximize
premiums
Implementation of Zero Base Budgeting
Leveraging on improved technologies
Processes/plants consolidation
Increasing operational leverage
More efficient funding structure
Transformation costs mostly in Reais
(95%)
Business ModelPremium management and cost control aligned with efficient risk
management
USD
USD USD
BRL
USD
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Robust market risk governance structure with risk policy
defined by the Board of Directors and overseen by a Risk
Committee on a weekly basis
Risk strategy seeks to minimize or eliminate items with no
control such as metal prices and FX rates, so management
can focus on improving transformation and logistic costs,
premiums, volume mix and SG&A expenses
PMAs market risk policy does not allow speculativepositions, and established segregation of duties to ensure
accuracy of metal and FX rate exposures
Market Risk Hedge Strategy
PMA hedges its exposures against movements of metal prices,
foreign exchange, and interest rates
Hedge instruments comprises derivatives (swaps and NDFs)
and/or financial assets and liabilities (Debt, Payables,
Receivables). PMA does not operate directly in any MercantileExchange and is not affected by daily margin calls
Metal exposure daily VaR is USD 250,000 (copper price
variation) and FX Net Exposure is covered between 70-100%
for up to 12 months forward
Differently from other soft commodity players, PMA keeps
metal cost floating through swap transaction and fixes the
cost when inventory is sold
-15,0%
-10,0%
-5,0%
0,0%
5,0%
10,0%
15,0%
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14
Gross Margin Avg. USD Change Avg. LME Change
Hedge efficiency = low
volatility in margins
2014 exposure in: 10% movement in asset value (USD M impact)
USD 43
Copper 1
Zinc neutral
Lead neutral
Tin neutral
Gold neutral
Silver neutral
USD M impact in Gross Profit 44
2014 Net EBIT Sensitivity
Business ModelMarket risks and hedge strategies highlights
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MineNegotiation
PMA buys copper with TC/RC discount [TC/RC]over LME with M+3 QP
E.g.: M+3 LME US$ 500/t TC/RC
Shippingdate
Mine ships the Cu Concentrate with temporaryLME TC/RC with QP of M+3
E.g.: US$ 6.000/t - US$ 500/t
QP Settledate
Result = The price to be paid is the average LME ofthe 3rd month from shipping date less TC/RC.
E.g. US$ 6500/t 500/t = US$ 6000/t
Financing
PMA finance the purchase of the copper (in USD)with fixed QP using Letter of Credit / Forfait.
SalesNegotiation
Commercial team agrees pricing calculationwith customer
E.g.: (LME QP + Premium)*USD rate + Interest
(to cover payment terms)
Invoicing date
QP in sales are usually past prices (E.g. S-1 oraverage LME of last week).
The USD portion of the price is converted intoBRL upon invoicing using the agreed PTAX
Receivables
Domestic sales are collected in BRL
Exports has M+1/+2 QPs and are collected inUSD.
Purchase Flow (Cu Concentrate) Sales Flow (Primary and Copper Products)
Copper market uses a Quotation Period (QP) of the LME as a price reference + Premium to define the
settlement price of a transaction
Business Model Copper Market StandardsMetal hedging to neutralize metal prices volatility
Total Result: + Copper + TC/RC + Premium - Copper
=
+ TC/RC + Premium
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Results of copper metal hedging are reclassified from finance revenue/expenses to inventory, adjusting
the historical metal cost to market value
PMA hedges its volume exposure with SWAPs (NDFs), selling inventory with fixed QP in the nearby and buying copper in the
future with open QP
Metal fair value hedge accounting program allows inventory Mark-to-market (MtM), which monthly variations on LME should be
offset by variations on the derivative side
Within the month sales (and QP confirmation) the derivative volume is liquidated with the same sales volume
Using QP derivatives, PMA brings sales QP to LME month average, whilst inventory and its monthly variation are also marked-to-
market using LME monthly average. In this way, both LMEs for sales and cost are under the same LME QP neutralizing its effect
Business ModelMetal hedge to neutralize metal prices volatility
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USD Long
95% of PMAsrevenue are in USD
(around USD 1.3bi/year)
USD Short
90% of PMAs debtand suppliers are in
USD(around USD 0.9bi/year)
USD Net
PMAs uses NDFs to
hedge USD netexposure
Net Exposure:
- PMAs has a riskmanagement teamresponsible for monitoringUSD exposure.
- Exposure is coveredbetween 70-100% for up to
12 months forward
Hedge accounting: the result of USD hedging instruments is classified
as Other Comprehensive Income under Shareholders Equity account.When the hedge is closed, the result is recognized in P&L.
Accounting
Business ModelCash flow hedging and hedge accounting to avoid FX rates volatility
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Operational efficiency and higher ROIC will position PMA as a dividend play
Risk
management
Increasing Margins
and ROICDiscipline in capital
usage
Capacity utilization +
costs reduction
Relevant marketshare in a region
with protected
premiums
Focus in
operational and
commercial
efficiency
Reduce capitalapplied to
business,
especially
inventories
Metal and cashflow hedges
strongly
reducing
volatility on
results
Business ModelEquity story: copper fixed income
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1
2 5
4
3
6Company Overview
Financials
Copper Sector
Agenda
Business Model
PMAM at a glance
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Sales Volume*(K t)
Production stoppages during 1H14
(maintenance)
5% recovery in production volume during 2H14
* Sales volume net of intra-operating eliminations
Production Volume(K t)
Sustainable trend already clear, despite production and sales impacted by domestic environment and
production stoppages
244
366
305
2012 2013 2014
246
330
267
2012 2013 2014
Net Revenues(R$ M)
4,026
5,549
4,734
2012 2013 2014
Better commercial arbitrage opportunity
between products and markets than in 2013
Lower sales volume and LME quote in 2014
impacted Revenues
FinancialsProduction, Sales and Revenues
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Transformation cost down 5% even considering 2014 inflation
Gross Profit and Gross Margin(R$ M)
Margin gain: higher operating efficiency and Transformation Cost
reduction
COGS(R$ M)
184
395 384
4.6%
7.1%
8.1%
-01%
00%
01%
02%
03%
04%
05%
06%07%
08%
,0
50,0
100,0
150,0
200,0
250,0
300,0
350,0400,0
450,0
2012 2013 2014
Gross Profit Gross Margin
3,361
4,570
3,798
480
584
5533,842
5,154
4,350
2012 2013 2014
Metal Cost Transformation Cost
-5%
Efforts to reduce Transformation Cost resulted in Gross Margin gain, despite decrease in Net Revenues
FinancialsCOGS and Gross Profit
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34
Operating efficiency, costs reduction and hedge accounting are reflected in EBITDA and Net Profit
20 times growth
2015: Accumulated Losses could be fully compensated
Adjusted EBITDA(R$ M)
Recurring EBITDA Margin gain
Net Profit(R$ M)
20x higher
(206)
6
124
2012 2013 2014
125
332358
3.1%
6.0%
7.6%
2012 2013 2014
EBITDA EBITDA Margin
FinancialsAdjusted EBITDA and Net Profit
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Efforts in reducing expenses and risk management policy contributed to results recovery
Financial Result(R$ M)
Hedge Accounting adoption already presented relevant effect in 2014 Efforts in expenses review resulted in 15% decrease in recurring
expenses
Zero Base Budgeting will allow further reductions
Recurring Expenses(R$ M)
-15%
138
168
143
2012 2013 2014
(71)
(163)
22
2012 2013 2014
FinancialsExpenses and Financial Result
l
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36
-261
-482
604
2012 2013 2014
Free Cash Flow (R$ M)
Debt Maturity Schedule (R$ M) Net Debt/LTM Adjusted EBITDA
Cash & Debt (R$ M)
FinancialsImproving Balance Sheet and Free Cash Flow
1,079999
1,590
174
304
70 42
Cash 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Gross Debt
Cash = ~2 years of amortization
1.165 1.2461.333
1.590
1.995
506 257 285 511
868
659
988 1.048 1.079 1.127
2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15
Gross Debt Net Debt Cash
2,2x
1,5x
1,5x
1,0x
0,8x
1,6x
2,5x
4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15
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37
1
2 5
4
3
6Company Overview
Financials
Copper Sector
Agenda
Business Model
PMAM at a glance
C S
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38
Malleable
& Ductile
Corrosion
Resistant,
Machinable &
Formable
Excellent
Conductor &
Heat
Transferer
Copper Key Physical Properties
Coppers benefits extend beyond mechanical characteristics:
- Essential to the health of plants, animal and humans.
Deficiencies, as well as excesses, can be detrimental to
health
- Recycling: copper is one of the
most recycled off all metals.
Virtually all products made from
copper can be recycled and
recycled copper loses none of itschemical or physical properties
- Energy Efficiency: copper can
improve the efficiency of energy
production and distribution systems
- Antimicrobial Properties: copper and copper
alloy products can be used to eliminate
pathogens and reduce the spread of diseases
Copper SectorCopper is the base of societys infrastructure and is present everywhere
C S
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39
Tubes andaccessories, gasheating, bars,
switch, sockets,electric energy
wires andcables
Civil Construction
Electricvehicles,
brake pads,radiatorsand heatdiffusors
Automotive Sector
Copper-nickel alloysto preventcorrosion
Naval Construction
Water and gastubes, electronicconnectors, heatdiffusors, electric
engines and cables
Industry
Wires andconnectors
Telecommunications
Circuits,wires and
connectors
Eletroelectronics
Copper alloys used inbuttons, zipper, buckle,
jewelry, surgicalinstruments and
military applications
Dressing, Decoration and Specialties
Wires and energycables, solar panels,
wind turbine andethanol production
Energy
Copper SectorCopper is widely used in all sectors
C S t
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40
1.0
2.5
0.3
1.4
2.2
2.72.9
3.1
2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E
7.7 7.77.4
7.16.8 6.6 6.4 6.3
2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E
3.4 3.3 3.33.5
3.7
4.1 4.0 4.0
2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E
Global GDP Growth (%) China GDP Growth (%) Brazil GDP Growth (%)
Global economy with sustainable growth in coming years will support copper demand
Despite Chinese deceleration, growth rates are still very high, while Brazil presents a high potential
growing market
Source: IMF
Copper SectorGlobal GDP drives copper demand
C S t
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41
Concentrate Production (Mt) Smelter Production (Mt) Refined Consumption (Mt)
China is the most important player accounting for 44% of global consumption
China also holds a disproportionate amount of global stocks
Strong growth of copper mining supply in 2013/2014 puts award pressure leading to higher TC/RC (large discount to
smelters)
Expected growth in refined consumption will surpass growth in production, supporting higher premiums
Refined copper prices to come under downward pressure over the next few years
Source: WoodMackenzie, December 2014
11.1 10.9 11.0 11.4 11.2 11.6
4.3 4.7 5.36.0 7.1
7.7
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E
15.4 15.6 16.317.5 18.3
19.3
14.8 15.216.5 17.0 17.7
18.7
1.4 1.51.6 1.7
1.71.8
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E
16.2 16.818.1
18.7 19.520.5
11.8 11.4 11.4 11.9 12.3 12.6
7.8 8.2 9.29.9 10.3
10.7
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E
19.6 19.620.6 21.8
22.623.3
RoW China RoW China RoW China
Copper SectorProduction , refining and consumption drive copper price
C S t
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42Source: WoodMackenzie, LME
Copper SectorRecent drop in copper prices caused by macro scenario and oil prices
5.000
5.500
6.000
6.500
7.000
7.500
Improving economic
sentiment and decliningLME stocks boost prices
Sharp
price fall
leads to
scrap
vacuum
Weak manufacturing
data and credit issues
in China
SRB buying
Quingdao
warehousefraud
uncovered
Generally positive macro-indicators and falling
stocks supports prices
Prices slides
as global
growth fears
escalate as oil
price tumbles
Strong USD
pressuringcommodities
LMEUS$/t
Copper Sector
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2000 2005 2010 2015E 2020E 2025E 2030E 2035E
milliontones
North America Europe China Other Asia Row
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2000 2005 2010 2015E 2020E 2025E 2030E 2035E
milliontonnes
Construction Electrical Network Industrial Machinery Transport Consumer & general
Wire rod
74%
Billet
13%
Cake/Slab
13%
Electrical
conductivity
59%
Heat
transfer
9%
Aesthetics/
malleable
28%
Signal
transfer
4%
Refined Consumption by Region Total Consumption by Industry Sector
By First Use By Market Sector By Property
Construction30%
Electrical
Network
19%
Industrial
Machinery11%
Transport
12%
Consumer &general
28%
Source: WoodMackenzie, December 2014
Copper SectorSustainable global copper consumption growth
Copper Sector
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China (kt) Brazil (kt)
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
1970 -19793.4% growth p.a.
1960 -1969
4.7% growth p.a.
1980 -1989
1.8% growth p.a.
1990 -1999
3% growth p.a.
2000 -2009
1.5% growth p.a.
2010 -2019
3% growth p.a.
2020 -2035
1.5% growth p.a.
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
1970 -1979
8% growth p.a.
1960 -1969
3.5% growth p.a.
1980 -1989
5.9% growth p.a.
1990 -19999.6% growth p.a.
2000 -2009
15% growth p.a.
2010 -2019
5.7% growth p.a.
2020 -20352% growth p.a.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
1970 -1979
13.1% growth p.a.
1960 -1969
8.7% growth p.a.
1980 -1989
-3% contraction p.a.
1990 -1999
9.2% growth p.a.
2000 -2009
-0.5% contraction p.a.
2010 -2019
2.2% growth p.a.
2020 -20352.4% growth p.a.
Global (kt)
Global refined copper demand still driven by China
(44% of global demand in 2013 expected 48% in2020, a 7% CAGR)
Main drivers:
Global GDP growth Emerging markets growth
Infrastructure and consumer goods sectors Use of new technologies
Source: WoodMackenzie, December 2014
Copper SectorChina still is the main driver of global copper consumption
Copper Sector
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19.7 20.220.8
22.123.0
24.0 24.3 24.4
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E
Global Refined Production (Mt) Global Refined Consumption (Mt)
19.6 19.620.6
21.822.6 23.3
23.9 24.4
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E
Consumption to outpace production in next years, supporting current premium levels
Source: WoodMackenzie, December 2014
Copper SectorRefined copper imbalance continues to benefit smelters
Copper Sector
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TC/RC (US$/t and R$/t)* Metal Premium (Cathode)
Metal Premium is charged by a metal producer to itscustomer
Theoretically to cover the cost (transportation,
warehousing, financing, alloying and marketing costs) of
shipping metal to a customer but is a market
driven/negotiated commercial term
Premiums are set once a year
Revenue for a refiner and cost to a consumer
Treatment Charge & Refining Charge is a deduction fromthe payable copper
Theoretically what it takes to convert a tone of
concentrates into metal but is a market
driven/negotiated commercial term
Charged by a smelter to a mine
Realized TC is negotiated annually each year
Revenue for a smelter and cost to a mine
*Considering 30% Cu concentrate
Source: Company and Bloomberg
High copper concentrate inventories led to TC/RC growth in recent years together with tightness in
physical market contributing to higher premiums
Coppe SectoTC/RC and Premiums at historical highs support smelters growth
perspectives
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Exports Premium
Domestic Premium
254 310 352388
510610
447519 688
838
1,199
1,824
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 YTD
US$/t R$/t
Copper Sector
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47Source: WoodMackenzie, December 2014
0.6
2.3
0.7
3.6
0.2
13.6
0.7
0.1+2.7
-0.4
-0.6
+1.1
-0.4
+0.6
-2.9
+0.4
Demand
Surplus
Deficit
Cathode deficit in China and other regions create exports opportunities, also benefited by USD
appreciation
Global Cathode Demand per Region - Mt
2014e demand: 21.8 million t
2014e output: 22.1 million t
Copper SectorRegional imbalance creates interesting export opportunities
Copper Sector
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212
175
257
238
280 280
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E
214221
269
294
356377
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E
452
395419
442 453474
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E
Concentrate Production (Kt) Smelter Production (Kt) Refined Consumption (Kt)
Refined consumption still expected to increase despite economic slowdown
Copper consumption growth in Brazil is supported by:
recovery in domestic industrial production (end of Port War)
growth in primary consumption and Real Estate sectors
investments in ground transportation, electricity and infrastructure
Paranapanema is the only Brazilian smelter with 100% refined copper domestic production
Source: WoodMackenzie, December 2014
ppBrazilian copper industry follows the global path, despite consumption
affected by economic slowdown
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IR Contacts:
+55 11 2199-7914/7945/7845
http://ri.paranapanema.com.br
Access our website for more information and download the modeling guide
Investor Relations
mailto:[email protected]://ri.paranapanema.com.br/http://ri.paranapanema.com.br/mailto:[email protected]