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4/21/2015
1
EDUCATION SPONSORED BY:ANNUAL CONFERENCE AND EXHIBITIONMAY 7, 2015HOLIDAY INN BOXBOROUGH
Thriving in Place: Planning a Successful Environment
(Master Planning)(Master Planning)
May 7th, 2015(1:45pm‐3:00 pm)
2015 ANNUAL CONFERENCE AND EXHIBITION
Session Speakers
Frank Muraca President ARCH Consultants, Ltd.
Jim Freehling Chief Executive Officer Brookhaven at Lexington
Andrew Nesi Executive Vice President HJ Sims
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Session Agenda
• Master Plan Process
– Project Manager’s Perspective
• Best Practices for Successful Results
– Operator’s Perspective
• Trends in Senior Housing
– Investment Banker’s Perspective
Master Plan Process
The Impact of Innovation
• We need to evolve our perspective from Aging‐in‐Placeto Thriving‐in‐Place
• Define Brookhaven’sVision of the future and thedesired continuum of careto support programs, care,and services offered
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What is Master Planning?
• Start with the mission statement
• Programming as a first step
• Defines objectives and timeline to achieve goals
• Determine provider organizations desired continuum of care
Master Plan Process
1. Data Collection
2. Survey/Questionnaires
3. Zoning Analysis
4. Facility Assessmenty
5. Market Overview
6. SWOT Analysis
7. Site Planning
8. Project Scope Definition
Data Collection
• Review current conditions
– Site
– Facilities
Services– Services
– Resident Satisfaction
– Prior Market Research
– Current Operating Statements
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Perspective Residents
• Are you balancing current resident preferences with those of the future consumer?
• Do you fully understand the income and net worth of future generations?
• How have their preferences changed?
• What options are needed in the future?
• Where will they want their services?
Survey/Questionnaires
• Define goals that become a baseline for planning
Specific Areas of Interest
• Dining Venues
• Healthcare
• Wellness Programming
• Community Outreach
• Desirable Housing Product
• Technology
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Zoning Analysis
• Present zoning conditions and factors affecting expansion
Facility Assessment
• Investigation of existing physical plant and site
• Capital maintenance budgets are forecasted
Market Overview
• Primary Market Area (PMA) Analyzed
• Anticipated Target Market Determined
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SWOT Analysis
• Review with planning committee:
– Strengths
– Weaknesses
Opportunities– Opportunities
– Threats
• Wish list is then developed with desired programming
Site Planning
• Conceptual site plan options are developed
Project Scope Definition
• Project goals defined
• Potential unit count/mix determined
• Entitlement processes scheduled
• Financial modeling
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Program Considerations
• Hybrid Homes
• Neighborhoods
Hybrid Homes
• Hybrid Homes or Villa Buildings
– 10‐12 units/building with parking below
– All corner units (four per floor)
Attempts to appeal to cottage customer and– Attempts to appeal to cottage customer and increase density
– Create residential product variety
Hybrid Homes: Principals
• Cottage amenities in an apartment setting
• Incremental growth
• Higher density 3:1 ratio increase
• Different residential housing product
• Underground parking
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Hybrid Homes
The Village at Crystal SpringsAnnapolis, Maryland
Neighborhoods
• Neighborhoods of 20 +/‐
• Staff are neighborhood based and may be structured different for am/pm care
S i l i i i hb h d b d• Social experience is neighborhood based
• Short travel distances
Unit Configurations
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Neighborhood: Principles
• All neighborhoods have a front door
• All neighborhoods have a country kitchen
• Living areas are the focus
• Staff areas remain behind the scenes
• Privacy is a priority
Neighborhoods
Innovate, Evolve, Grow
• Innovate: How are we evolving our products and services and staying ahead of the curve?
• Evolve: How are we embracing change and g gleading that change?
• Grow: What is the consequence of not growing?
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Why Master Plan?
• Internal assessment and evaluation are essential in understanding how to remain competitive in today’s senior housing environmentenvironment
• Results in a detailed plan for implementation
Best Practices for Successful Results
Case Study: Brookhaven at Lexington
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Celebrating 25 Years
• Fully occupied with 200 on Priority Wait List
• CARF/CCAC Accredited
• Fitch Bond Rating A+
Programs
• Independent Living Units (ILU)
• Assisted Care Units (ACU)
• Skilled Nursing Facility (SNF)
Program Overview
• 217 ILUs• 23 Cottages• 20 ACUs• 32 SN Units (49 beds)
• Unit Mix– 77% ILU– 7% ACU– 16% SNF
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Property Site Plan
Building Site Plan
Services
• Dining– Main Dining Room– Bistro– Café
• Wellness– Personal Fitness Training– Personal Wellness Coordinator
– Massage Therapy– Esthetician – Beauty Salon and Barber
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Services Continued
• Tufts/Osher Life Long Learning– Brookhaven’s on‐site campus
• Resident Services– TripsLectures music art and film programs– Lectures, music, art and film programs
– Resident transportation– Personal technology support
• Maintenance Services• Housekeeping Services
Brookhaven Master Planning
• First Master Planning ‐ 2004
• Master Planning Task Force Established ‐ 2014
– Trustees, Management, Residents
fi di f ll d f– Report findings to full Board of Trustees
– Build on direction identified in Strategic Plan
• Engaged Master Planning Consultant – 2014
– Update MP Task Force on Current Trends
5 Major Focus Areas
• Healthcare
• Dining
• Programming
• Outreach
• Location and Use of Space
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Brookhaven Best Practices
• Educate entire group• Include Residents from the beginning• Keep an open mind• Engage MP consultant• Bring in Architect/Engineers after developing• Bring in Architect/Engineers after developing wish list
• Don’t set unrealistic deadlines• You can always erase what is on paper• Master plan every 5‐7 years
Trends in Senior Housing
Trends in Senior Housing
• State of the Industry
• Capital Markets
• Health Care Reform
• What Investors & Lenders Look For
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State of the Industry
State of the Industry
State of the Industry
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State of the Industry: Affordability
• Four drivers
– Contract type (e.g. lifecare, modified lifecare or fee‐for‐service)
– Monthly fee and entrance fee refund (e.g. 90%, 50% 0%)50% or 0%)
– Employee and administrative expenses
– Community amenities and unit size amenities
State of the Industry: Affordability
• 70% reduction in number of defined benefit pension plans since 1990
• More residents in future generations will rely on income from investments
• Periodically survey households on the wait list to obtain estimates of net worth and income
• Modify the contract type, unit size, monthly fee and entrance fee refund to develop affordable options for future customers
State of the Industry:Senior Living Bankruptcies
• Small number of bankruptcies: 19 in past 35 years (approximately 1% of the 1,900 CCRCs)
• Many more senior living communities entered into forbearance agreements, sales, permanent restructurings and bond exchanges
• Bankruptcy rate similar to local government bankruptcy rate of 1.2% in the past 75 years (641 out of approximately 55,000 local governments) (source: James Spiotto, Chapman & Cutler)
• In the past 21 years there were six major government bankruptcies: four in California and three occurred in 2008 (Vallejo, Stockton and San Bernardino – all in California)
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Senior Living Bankruptcies by Period
600
800
1,000
1,200
Amount of Bonds (M
illions)
10 Bankruptcies
‐
200
400
Dollar A
Years
1970‐1979 1980‐1989 1990‐1999 2000‐2009 2010 ‐ Present
2 Bankruptcies
7 Bankruptcies
No Bankruptcies
Source: HJ Sims and independent counsel
Capital Markets: Financial Headlines
• Tax‐exempt Bond Rates have dropped since 2013– A reduction in tax‐exempt bond supply and increased demand from investors has caused rates to drop since the beginning of 2014
• Mutual tax exempt bond fund inflows confirm investor appetite for tax‐exempt bond issues
• Treasury yields have also followed this declining trend as well as short‐term interest rates
Capital Markets: Senior Living Tax Exempt Bonds
$334.6 BillionTAX EXEMPT
BONDS (PUBLIC: 2013)
Source: Thomson Reuters and SIFMA
TAX EXEMPT SENIOR LIVING
$3.672 Billion(1.0% of Municipal)
Healthcare$25.1 Billion
(8.0%)
2013)
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Capital Markets: Tax Exempt Rates Trend Lower
7.00%
8.00%
9.00%
10.00%
11.00%
A
BBB
Source: Thomson Reuters and SIFMA
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
BBB
BIG
NR Start‐Up
Capital Markets: Historic Low US Treasury Bond Yields
10
12
14
16
18
ent
US Treasury 10 and 30 Year Bond Yields
0
2
4
6
8
1/8/1963
1/8/1965
1/8/1967
1/8/1969
1/8/1971
1/8/1973
1/8/1975
1/8/1977
1/8/1979
1/8/1981
1/8/1983
1/8/1985
1/8/1987
1/8/1989
1/8/1991
1/8/1993
1/8/1995
1/8/1997
1/8/1999
1/8/2001
1/8/2003
1/8/2005
1/8/2007
1/8/2009
1/8/2011
1/8/2013
1/8/2015
Perce
Date
10 Year Yield
30 Year Yield
Capital Markets: Historic Low Short Term Rates
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
10.00
ent
Historic Short Term Rates
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
Perce
Date
LIBOR (30 Day)
SIFMA
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19
Capital Markets:Increase Demand for Tax‐Exempt Bonds
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
2014 Municipal Bond Fund Flows (Excludes Some State Specific Funds)
($4,000)
($2,000)
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
Capital Markets: Fixed Rate Available Through Swap are at Historic Low
4%
5%
6%
SIFMA Interest Rate Swaps
0%
1%
2%
3%
Year
10 Year ‐ SIFMA
5 Year ‐ SIFMA
Capital Markets: Senior Living Volume by Use of Funds
$4 000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
$Millions)
Volume by Use of Funds
Source: Thomson Reuters
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013Dollar Amount ($
New Money Refunding
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Temporary Financing Options• Construction Loan
– Variable Rate– 5 Year Maturity– Amortization Schedule Likely– Loan‐to‐ Value Restriction
• Entrance Fee Principal Redemption Bonds®– Fixed RateFixed Rate– 7 – 10 Year Maturity– No Set Amortization Schedule – Redemption Made With Entrance Fees Received
• Draw Down Bonds– Tax Exempt Bonds Sold to Targeted Investors– Ability to Access Funds as Needed vs. Borrow All at Closing– Reduces Debt Amount and Negative Arbitrage
Permanent Financing Options
• Fixed Rate Tax Exempt Bonds–Sold to Institutional and Retail Investors–Up to 35 Year Maturity
• Direct Bank Placement of Tax Exempt Bonds with Swap
–Variable Rate Bonds Purchased by Bank(s)–Up to 35 Year Maturity
–Bank(s) Agree to Hold Bonds for 7‐10 Year Period
Capital Markets:Bank Letter of Credit Volume Shrinks
• Bank rating downgrades (Moody’s downgraded 15 large banks in June, 2012)
• Basel III requires banks’ to allocate more capital to letters of credit by 2015
• American Recover and Reinvestment Act (“AARA”) of 2009 reduces bank tax‐exempt income. Many banks developed programs to purchase tax exempt bonds. Large number of banks converted outstanding letters of credit to direct purchase bonds in 2009 and 2010. AARA expired end of 2010.
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Capital Markets: Senior Living Letter of Credit Backed Bonds
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
($Millions)
Letter of Credit Backed
Source: Thomson Reuters
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Dollar Amount
Date
Capital Markets: Bank Purchase of Tax‐Exempt Bonds
• Significant number of banks continue to purchase tax‐exempt bonds. Rate is typically calculated as (spread over LIBOR) x fraction. The fraction converts taxable rate to tax‐exempt rate
• Direct purchase often contains longer term than letter of credit (up to 15 years) – reduced renewal and replacement and interest rate i krisk
• Bank agrees to own the direct purchase bonds for a fixed time period (i.e. term). At the end of the term the bank may renew or put the bonds back to the borrower. New bank may purchase the bonds if the original bank does not renew purchase agreement.
Fixed Rate Bonds
Bank Purchase of Bonds
Entrance Fee Principal Redemption Bonds
Bank Construction Loan
Draw Down Bonds
Maturity 35 years 7 – 10 years 7‐10 years 5 years 7‐10 years
Fixed Rate Fixed rate Fixed rate Fixed rate Variable Fixed rate
Call Protection 7 ‐10 yearsPrepayment Penalty
Callable At Any TimeRepayable at Any
TimeCallable At Any Time
Financing Options ‐ Summary
Financial Covenants Flexible Restrictive Flexible Restrictive Restrictive
Ancillary Business None Required None Required None
Loan‐to‐Value Limit None Typically 75% None Typically 75% None
Appraisal None Required None Required None
72
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Health Care Reform• Goal: Improve Quality and Reduce Cost
– CMS priority is to improve quality and reduce cost of Medicare programs
– Key focus is to reduce hospital readmissions
– Hospitals incur financial penalties for readmissions. They team with high quality post‐acute providers to reduce readmissions
– High quality post‐acute providers track patient outcomes and document quality
Health Care Reform Case Study
• Hebrew Home for the Aged at Riverdale– From 2009 to 2012 HHAR participated in the CMS value based
purchasing demonstration project
– Project goal: improve the quality of nursing home care and reduce hospital readmission rates
– The project evaluated patients with six medical conditions: heart failure, respiratory infection, electrolyte imbalance, sepsis, urinary tract infections and anemia
– HHAR implemented five new protocols and successfully reduced hospital readmission rates 41%.
What Investors & Lenders Look ForCredible Sponsor
Good Market Characteristics
Liquidity & Resources
Investor
75
Experienced Development
Team
Capable Manager
Market Validation
Attractive Financial Forecast
Appetite
#4
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Lessons Learned
• Create steps or phases for planning efforts
• Involve all stakeholders
– Management, Board, Residents, etc.
• Address all disciplines
– Marketing, Operations, Finance, Design, etc.
Thank you
Session Speakers
Frank Muraca ARCH Consultants, Ltd. [email protected]
Jim Freehling Brookhaven at Lexington [email protected]
A d N i HJ Si i@hj iAndrew Nesi HJ Sims [email protected]