Thursday, April 23, 2015 2:00PM EDT

2015 data update Canadians

Agenda • Introductions and Housekeeping • 2015 Changes in Canadians • 2015 Data Update • What’s Coming • Questions

2

Teresa Sinopoli Director, Product Management

Today’s presenters

3

Sean Howard Senior Research Associate, Custom Research

housekeeping • Listen-only • Questions held until end • Use the Q&A feature in your WebEx interface • Technical difficulties? 1-866-229-3239

4

5

2015 Changes in Canadians

2015 Changes in Canadians

6

Population Change

Millennials and Boomers

Diversity within the Diversity

Population Change trends

• Population change above 1% per year until the 2016 to 2018 time frame

• Main reason for slowdown in population growth is aging population – The oldest Boomers are entering their 70s, death rates for 70+ are declining but

not fast enough to maintain current growth rates – With Millennials coming into their 30s, birth rates are expected to stabilize – Current immigration policies will hold immigration rates constant into the future

• Western provinces, especially Alberta and Saskatchewan, are growing faster than the

rest of Canada – Combination of attracting more immigrants and internal migrants – Younger population leading to a mini-baby boom

• Atlantic provinces stagnating

– Oldest region in the country – Low birth rates

Population Change

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%19

91 -

1992

1992

- 19

9319

93 -

1994

1994

- 19

9519

95 -

1996

1996

- 19

9719

97 -

1998

1998

- 19

9919

99 -

2000

2000

- 20

0120

01 -

2002

2002

- 20

0320

03 -

2004

2004

- 20

0520

05 -

2006

2006

- 20

0720

07 -

2008

2008

- 20

0920

09 -

2010

2010

- 20

1120

11 -

2012

2012

- 20

1320

13 -

2014

2014

- 20

1520

15 -

2016

2016

- 20

1720

17 -

2018

2018

- 20

1920

19 -

2020

2020

- 20

2120

21 -

2022

2022

- 20

2320

23 -

2024

2024

- 20

2520

25 -

2026

2026

- 20

2720

27 -

2028

2028

- 20

2920

29 -

2030

2030

- 20

3120

31 -

2032

2032

- 20

3320

33 -

2034

2034

- 20

35

Population Rate of Change Births Share of Population

Deaths Share of Population Net International Migration Share of Population

2015

20

15

Millennials and Boomers Compared Millennials Boomers

Age 20-35 50-70

Dwelling Type

Education

Diversity

Income

Top PRIZM5

Social Values

Leisure

$70,500 $87,700

Market Size 21% of the population 27% of the population

Sexual Permissiveness Brand Genuineness Rejection of Authority

Attraction to Nature Fulfilment Through Work Cultural Assimilation

Millennial and Boomer spending

13.31%

27.78%

7.31%

3.55%

5.94%

20.62%

4.30%

2.13% 6.88%

2.76%

0.32% 2.24% 0.27%

2.56%

Boomer Neighbourhood Expenditures

13.89%

30.34%

7.13%

3.16%

5.80%

18.26%

4.14%

2.21% 6.26%

2.12% 0.38% 3.06%

0.42% 2.83%

Millennial Neighbourhood Expenditures

Diversity within the Diversity South asians

Census Subdivision Rank

% South Asian

Brampton (ON) 1 42.30% Surrey (BC) 2 31.21% Abbotsford (BC) 3 23.85% Mississauga (ON) 4 22.32% Markham (ON) 5 19.18% Delta (BC) 6 18.48% Milton (ON) 7 16.41% Ajax (ON) 8 14.67% Toronto (ON) 9 12.18% Pickering (ON) 10 11.93%

Diversity within the Diversity Immigrants born in India and Immigrants born in Pakistan

Census Subdivision Ranking % Born in India Brampton (ON) 1 21.06% Surrey (BC) 2 16.74% Abbotsford (BC) 3 15.38% Delta (BC) 4 10.05% Mississauga (ON) 5 8.43% Markham (ON) 6 4.38% Wood Buffalo (AB) 7 4.33% Milton (ON) 8 3.89% New Westminster (BC) 9 3.76% Edmonton (AB) 10 3.48%

Census Subdivision Ranking % Born in Pakistan Milton (ON) 1 5.16% Mississauga (ON) 2 4.92% Brampton (ON) 3 2.91% Ajax (ON) 4 2.43% Saskatoon (SK) 5 2.10% Markham (ON) 6 1.99% Wood Buffalo (AB) 7 1.68% Pickering (ON) 8 1.68% Vaughan (ON) 9 1.55% Regina (SK) 10 1.48%

Pakistan India

Diversity within the Diversity Immigrants born in India and Immigrants born in Pakistan - toronto

INDIA

PAKISTAN

Diversity within the Diversity Immigrants born in India and Immigrants born in Pakistan - vancouver

INDIA

PAKISTAN

15

2015 data update

2015 data update

16

CensusPlus DemoStats DaytimePop AccultuRates CrimeStats

HouseholdSpend FoodSpend AgebyIncome WealthScapes WealthScapes Lite LiquidAssets NeighbourhoodView

PRIZM5 DELTA5 PRIZM5 QC

Numeris PMB NADbank Canadian Financial Monitor AskingCanadians Mobile AskingCanadians Social AskingCanadians eShopper IHS Automotive Services

SocialValues

CommunityHealth

Businesses Shopping Centres GTA Retailers Major Retail Chains Grocery, Drug and Fitness TrafficCounts Points of Interest

BusinessProfiles BusinessProfiles Lite

Released May/June

2015 data update

17

CensusPlus DemoStats DaytimePop AccultuRates CrimeStats

HouseholdSpend FoodSpend AgebyIncome WealthScapes WealthScapes Lite Liquid Assets Neighbourhood View

PRIZM5 DELTA5 PRIZM5 QC

Numeris PMB NADbank Canadian Financial Monitor AskingCanadians Mobile AskingCanadians Social AskingCanadians eShopper IHS Automotive Statistics

SocialValues

CommunityHealth

Businesses Shopping Centres GTA Retailers Major Retail Chains Grocery, Drug and Fitness TrafficCounts Points of Interest

BusinessProfiles BusinessProfiles Lite

Released May/June

2015 data update

18

Release Geography

Geography Type Geography Count

Canada 1

Province (PR) 13

Census Metropolitan Area and Census Agglomeration (CMACA) 152

Census Metropolitan Area and Census Agglomeration by Province (PRCMACA) 194

Census Division (CD) 293

Federal Electoral Districts (FED) 338

Forward Sortation Area (FSA) 1,640

Census Subdivision (CSD) 5,253

Census Tract (CT) 5,465

Dissemination Area (DA) 56,204

Postal Code 744,249

demographic

19

DemoStats

What it is DemoStats features variables on population, family structure, household size and type, ethnic diversity, labour force participation and income. How it’s used • Market Intelligence • Consumer Insights • Target Group Creation • Personification • List Rentals

demographic

20

DemoStats details

DemoStats for Current Year • FSALDU level and DA+ • Total of 742 variables in DemoStats • Release 1 includes 522 variables • Release 2 includes remaining 220 variables • The only variables that will not be released for the current year at the FSALDU level are

income distributions DemoStats Projections • DA+ (Census geographies, FSAs and FEDs) • All projected variables are part of Release 1 (includes 428 variables for 3, 5 and 10 years out as well as for 5 years back)

Other Important Information • Postal code roster: valid July 2014 • Reference data: July 1, 2015, 2018, 2020, 2025 and 2010 • Correction for Census net-under-coverage rates (2.3%) • Imputations for non-reporting reserves

demographic

21

DemoStats details Basics Total Population by Age *Male Population by Age *Female Population by Age Total Household Population by Age Male Household Population by Age Female Household Population by Age Households by Maintainer Age Households by Size of Household Households by Household Type Population 15 Years or Over by Marital Status Census Families by Family Structure Census Family Households by Family Structure Total Children At Home by Age Occupied Private Dwellings by Tenure *Occupied Private Dwellings by Period of Construction Occupied Private Dwellings by Structure Type Households by Income (Constant Year) Households by Income (Current Year) Household Population 15 Years or Over by Educational Attainment Household Population 15 Years or Over by Labour Force Activity *Household Population 15 Years or Over by Occupation Household Population by Visible Minority Status Household Population by Mother Tongue Household Population by Total Immigrants and Place of Birth *Household Population by Citizen Age *Household Population by Non-Citizen Age

Household Population by 5-Year Mobility Occupied Private Dwellings by Condo Status, Tenure and Structure Household Population by Income (Current Year) Household Population 25 to 64 Years by Educational Attainment Household Population 15 Years or Over by Industry Household Population 15 Years or Over by Place of Work Household Population 15 Years or Over by Method of Travel to Work Household Population by Religion Household Population by Aboriginal Identity Household Population by Knowledge of Official Language Household Population by Language Spoken Most Often At Home Household Population by Recent Immigrants and Place of Birth Household Population by Period of Immigration Household Population by Age at Immigration Household Population by Generation Status

* Not Projected

Rele

ase

1

Rele

ase

2 -

May

demographic

22

DemoStats methodology – data sources

• CensusPlus (2011 Census and 2011 NHS)

• StatsCan annual demographic estimates and components of change

• Canadian Immigration Council (CIC) new immigrant counts

• StatsCan Labour Force Survey (LFS) and Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics (SLID)

• StatsCan custom Census/NHS tables

• Population estimates and projections produced by various provincial, regional and municipal governments

• Building permit applications for major markets

• Canada Post HouseElite deliverable address counts by type

• CRA tax filer and tax family data

• Equifax, Cornerstone and a large, reliable household survey

• Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) housing starts

• Bank of Canada and “big-5” banks’ GDP and income estimates

demographic

23

DemoStats methodology TOP DOWN AND BOTTOM UP APPROACH • Model all themes initially from the top down

Start with the provincial level and work our way down to the neighbourhood level Higher levels of geography are used as controls for lower levels of geography

• As we work our way down the levels of geography, we allow for feedback from lower levels to cause adjustments to estimates and projections at higher levels of geography

• Same kind of approach is used with variable hierarchies DEMOGRAPHICS METHODS

Cohort component models STATISTICAL METHODS

Multinomial regression PATTERN FINDING AND MACHINE LEARNING

K Nearest Neighbours OPTIMIZATION AND CONSTRAINT SYSTEMS

Quadratic optimization

demographic

24

DemoStats methodology

STC Demographic

Estimates

Cohort component

model

PR, CD population by age and sex

projections

CensusPlus 2006 and 2011

CSD population Allocation

CSD Population by Age and Sex

Apply Headship

rates CSD Households

Building Permit Applications

CMHC, Planning documents

Allocate households

to lower levels of

geography

FSALDU and DA Households

Canada Post HouseElite, Equifax,

Cornerstone, etc.

demographic

25

DemoStats methodology Continued…

Various methods

FSALDU, DA Household

FSALDU, DA Universes

CensusPlus2011

CIC, LFS, SLID, CRA, CMHC, HouseElite, Bank estimates, custom STC

tables, etc

CensusPlus 2006, 2011

Various methods

CTCSD Controls for Themes

Rescaling and recon

Final Current Year Themes

Projections Final Projection Years’ Themes

financial

26

Householdspend and foodspend

What they are HouseholdSpend provides current estimates of annual expenditures for 359 variables spanning 19 categories of goods and services used by Canadian households. It includes both average dollars per household and total dollars spent.

The new FoodSpend database provides current estimates of annual expenditures for 293 variables spanning 4 categories of food goods and services used by Canadian households. It includes both average dollars per household and total dollars spent

How they’re used • Market Intelligence • Site Selection • Consumer Insights • Personification

financial

27

Householdspend and foodspend methodology

HouseholdSpend 359 Variables, 19 Categories

Clothing 31 Education 12 Food 13 Games of chance 5 Gifts of money and contributions 8 Health care 23 Household furnishings and equipment 44 Household operation 29 Income taxes 1 Miscellaneous expenditures 14 Personal care 14 Personal insurance payments and pension contributions 8 Reading materials and other printed matter 6 Recreation 69 Shelter 33 Tobacco products and alcoholic beverages 8 Total additional expenses 1 Total uncatalogued expenses 3 Transportation 32

FoodSpend 293 Variables, 4 Categories

Food purchased from stores by food type 12 Food purchased from stores by store type 4 Food purchased from stores by detailed food type 246 Food purchased from restaurants 25

Meat purchased from stores Fish and other marine products purchased from stores Dairy products and eggs purchased from stores Bakery and other cereal products purchased from stores Fruits and nuts purchased from stores Vegetables purchased from stores Condiments, spices and vinegar purchased from stores Sugar and sugar preparations purchased from stores Coffee and tea purchased from stores Fats and oils purchased from stores Other foods, materials and food preparations purchased from stores Non-alcoholic beverages purchased from stores

Sample: Food purchased from stores by food type

financial

28

Householdspend and foodspend methodology

• Initial coefficient estimates are modelled to the postal code level using the most recently available public-use micro-files (PUMFs) for the StatsCan Survey of Household Spending (SHS) and Food Expenditure Survey

• Modelled using state-of-the-art pattern finding and machine learning techniques

• Coefficient estimates are rolled out against current year aggregate household income data from DemoStats

• Aggregate expenditure dollars are reconciled with provincial SHS statistics released in January of 2015

29

Psychographic & opticks

psychographic

07/04/2015 30

SocialValues 271 Variables: 94 Values/Trends and 174 Attitudes NEW 21 Values and 35 Attitudes

FSALDU, DA and above

What it is Measures human motivation and social relations to understand the mindset of Canadians.

How marketers use it • Consumer Insights • Target Group Creation • Personification • Messaging • Brand Strategy

psychographic

07/04/2015 31

Advertising as Stimulus Cultural Assimilation Culture Sampling Ecological Concern Ecological Fatalism Importance of Spontaneity Just Desserts Multiculturalism North American Dream Ostentatious Consumption Propriety Racial Fusion Rejection of Inequality Rejection of Orderliness Religion a la Carte Sensualism Social Darwinism Social Intimacy Status via Home Voluntary Simplicity Work Ethic

21 NEW Values

SocialValues

A desire to be around and to connect with smaller, closely knit groups of people. Feeling that smaller organizations are better than larger ones.

Tendency to enjoy viewing advertising for its aesthetic properties; to enjoy advertising in a wide range of venues, from magazines to television to outdoor signs and billboards.

271 Variables: 94 Values/Trends and 174 Attitudes NEW 21 Values and 35 Attitudes

FSALDU, DA and above

OPticks

07/04/2015 32

OPTICKS is . . .

. . . a book written by Isaac Newton and published in 1704

. . . one of the great works of science in history

. . . the new name for EA’s suite of PRIZM5-linked datasets about what customers are buying and doing

the new name for our Media, Behaviour and Lifestyle Survey-based Data

OPticks

07/04/2015 33

What it is Print Measurement Bureau (PMB) conducts Canada’s leading syndicated study for single-source data on print readership, non-print media exposure, product usage and lifestyles.

PMB PMB: 6,083 variables FSALDU, DA and above

How it’s used • Market Intelligence • Consumer Insights • Target Group Creation • Personification • Differentiated Messaging • Media Planning • Brand Strategy

OPticks

07/04/2015 34

What it is Numeris is the leading supplier of radio and television audience ratings services to the Canadian broadcast advertising industry. Numeris RTS (Return to Sample) is a national survey that queries respondents on product consumption, leisure activities, retail behaviour and media habits.

numeris Numeris: 3,453 variables FSALDU, DA and above

How it’s used • Market Intelligence • Consumer Insights • Target Group Creation • Personification • Differentiated Messaging • Media Planning • Brand Strategy

OPticks

07/04/2015 35

AskingCanadians eShopper: 641 variables AskingCanadians Mobile: 864 variables

AskingCanadians Social: 752 variables

What it is AskingCanadians eShopper measures a wide range of online shopping behaviour—from product research to purchase preferences. Mobile provides details on mobile ownership, usage of devices, features and consumer attitudes. Social Media provides social media behaviour for all segments of Canadian society.

Askingcanadians eshopper, mobile & social

How they’re used • Market Intelligence • Consumer Insights • Target Group Creation • Personification • Differentiated Messaging • Brand Strategy

36

Businesses

Business profiles

07/04/2015 37

How it’s used • Market Intelligence • Competitor Analysis • Site Planning • Merchandising • Optimizing store layouts • Targeting business prospects

BusinessProfiles: 130 variables BusinessProfiles Lite: 31 variables

What it is Based on infoCanada data, our BusinessProfiles database covers over 1.3 million Canadian businesses and provides users with counts of businesses by SIC or NAICS code, employee size range and sales volumes. BusinessProfiles Lite provides counts of businesses by 17 industry classifications, employee size range and sales volumes.

locationware

07/04/2015 38

What it is This suite of data products includes geocoded location files from infoCanada, Rogers Publishing, The Centre For the Study of Commercial Activity, Kalibrate and TomTom.

businesses Shopping centres

GTA retailers

Major retail chains

Grocery, drug & fitness

Points of interest

infoCanada 1.3 million records

Rogers Publishing 2,900 records CSCA 4,500+ records

CSCA 40,060 records

CSCA 58,000+ records

Grocery 16,885 records Drug 8,437 records Fitness 2,755 records

TomTom 1,159,994 Records

Trafficcounts Kalibrate 54,268 records 22 variables

39

What’s coming

What’s coming

40

CensusPlus DemoStats DaytimePop AccultuRates CrimeStats

HouseholdSpend FoodSpend AgebyIncome WealthScapes WealthScapes Lite Liquid Assets Neighbourhood View

PRIZM5 DELTA5 PRIZM5 QC

Numeris PMB NADbank Canadian Financial Monitor AskingCanadians Mobile AskingCanadians Social AskingCanadians eShopper IHS Automotive Statistics

SocialValues

CommunityHealth

Businesses Shopping Centres GTA Retailers Major Retail Chains Grocery, Drug and Fitness Points of Interest

BusinessProfiles BusinessProfiles Lite

What’s coming in may

41

environicsanalytics.ca

Training Videos visit: environicsanalytics.ca/watch

NEW

questions?

Teresa Sinopoli | Director of Product Management teresa.sinopoli@environicsanalytics.ca Direct - 647.259.2816