2015 CIO Outlook Presentation

2015 CIO Outlook

September, 2008 Dave Newbold

2015 CIO Outlook | IBM CIO Technology and Innovation 2

2015 Outlook

“The 2015 CIO Outlook is a point of view on the future and a roadmap for IBM’s CIO organization”

Business/usage trends

Technology projections

Opportunities for innovators

An employee scenario

2015 CIO Outlook


100 billion PC chips on the Internet

2 million emails per second

1 million IM messages per second

8 terabytes per second traffic

255 exabytes magnetic storage

1 million voice queries per hour

2 billion location nodes activated

The Net

100 billion clicks per day

55 trillion links/synapses

1 quintillion transistor/neurons

20 petahertz synapse firings

255 exabytes memory

Your brain

Source: Kevin Kelly, EG Conference, December 4, 2007 (http://www.the-eg.com)

Thinking about 2015 •  We are hardwired for everything new

•  To paraphrase science fiction author William Gibson:

“2015 is here already, it’s just unevenly distributed”


Alignment with regional market and time zones

Smaller, energy efficient supply chains

Emergent cell phone economies in growth countries

Consistency of processes, but local variance

Need to grow appropriate skills for dynamic business challenges

Computing takes ~5% of global electrical demand (servers and clients) 76% data center growth ‘05 to ’10 (IDC)

Second Life Avatars, when active consume 71% of per user average electricity consumption

Business/usage trends with 2015 impact •  Post-Globalization environment •  Environment and Energy


Commerce will be fully digital

Everything will be exposed by customers

Authenticity and values will prevail

Transparency will be a business model design

Employees increasingly mobile

Mobile devices start replacing laptops

Expect full capability and integration

Application design is task specific

Smart phone is recorder/sensor

•  Post-Globalization environment •  Environment and Energy •  Conquering information •  Transparent digital economy •  Mobility

Business/usage trends with 2015 impact

Information doubling every three years

Text tools are poised to triumph

Location based business models enabled

Enterprises will leverage their scale

2015 CIO Outlook | IBM CIO Technology and Innovation

•  Post-Globalization environment •  Environment and Energy •  Conquering information •  Transparent digital economy •  Mobility •  Generational accommodation •  The nature of work •  Consumer driven IT

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Gen X and Millennials (“Gen Y”) share radically different work styles; open collaboration, casual management, integrated social tools and high IT literacy; must accommodate this to gain benefit

Boomers want more flexible transitions to retirement as well; e.g., project work that maximizes their value

Consumer IT market is innovative and competitive

Enterprises experimenting with employee choice of devices

Client virtualization provides secure, personalized desktop downloadable to most devices

IT device burden shifted to employees

Work and life integrated (vs. balanced)

Many more devices in environment to provide awareness and flexibility when desired; e.g. conference video from home office to car to cell

Interruption will be contextual and managed

Business/usage trends with 2015 impact


Technology shifts for 2015

•  Pragmatic, Social Web

•  Insights from exabytes

•  Interface Innovations

•  Cloud computing

•  Green IT and ET

•  Application assembly

•  Visual Business Processes

•  Smart Planet


Web Oriented Architecture (WOA) Web is the dominant application platform; runs everywhere Desktop OS becomes a commodity Enterprises will utilize virtual client OS VMs for secure, personal work spaces—downloaded onto any device

Software as a Service (SaaS) Typical delivery model; applications and data are integrated in the cloud Information is commoditized; metadata and contextual insight are personal Security and robustness are assumed

Social computing Fluid, portable and very well defended—across many sites and/or borders Reputations acquire legal status as property Significant resources are deployed to protect identity and reputation Privacy and opacity engines, like today’s physical exclusivity, will be highly refined Many speculate we will become nomadic again

Shift 2015: Pragmatic, Social Web


Intelligent information infrastructure Enough data and compute resources to make data reveal itself with scalable tools (FastBit, MapReduce, Hadoop, etc.) for correlation and indexing

Data will self-assemble organically for presentation to you

Structured data will be a niche necessity for legacy systems, as unstructured systems will overwhelm and “close enough” will suffice

Everyone will be an “info-vore” and very capable of sophisticated visual analysis of data sets (Humans still superlative at pattern recognition)

Data clouds will utilize low cost commodity disk drives in redundant, distributed arrays with location fetch logic (.01 of today’s GSA cost); data management will be eliminated

Value is in the filter, human and machine generated Right insight in the right place at the right time (consider location based marketing)

Shift 2015: Insights from Exabytes


Mobile devices replace laptops

Ambient telepresence will surround us VHD displays everywhere: walls, surfaces, cars, appliances Synthesized environments common for remote collaboration

Real world augmentation Sensors accumulate and network around and on us Personal Area Networks and distributed mobile devices (clothes, watch, phone, contacts, glasses, jewelry, implants) Speech, gesture and air typing (via PAN) input Retinal projection and brain wave cursors used widely

‘Holo-selves’ on horizon in 2015 Full symmetric immersion of sensing/being in virtual space – partial enablement available before 2015 (gloves and clothing provide movement, temperature, pressure, etc.) and the advent of neural interfaces

Shift 2015: Interface Innovations


Transparent external collaboration

Insight for our real world

Expose business processes

Embrace Clouds and consumer IT

Leveraging social energy

Generational inversion

2015 CIO Outlook opportunities


Where we are today

•  Simplifying and integrating our enterprise IT application portfolio

•  Driving global process integration

•  Implemented “Enterprise 2.0” and driving it deliberately outside •  Information as a service

•  Social networking, tag, filtering, rating everywhere •  Social data visualization and analysis services

•  Active global innovation facility (TAP)

•  Many mobile solutions in place

•  Piloting web desktops (SaaS)

•  Tackling very large data sets with internal and external integration


Business Value

Deepens our client insight and promotes closer collaboration on new opportunities. External social tools enable the Global Citizen; an employee prepared to succeed in a dynamic global marketplace where change is the norm. Transparency allows clients to understand depth of our capabilities and build trust rapidly.

Transparent external collaboration

Our capabilities exposed externally to fully engage the market (2010)

Most work becomes project-oriented; ‘employment’ compact is fluid and evolving

Easily exchange trusted identity and social network information with partners (2012)

Co-creation becomes a way of just working with others; pooled IP can be easily managed and negotiated on the fly

Enterprise fades as a central physical entity for employees?


Business Value

Puts key corporate data in the right place at the right time and supporting deeper insight into business functions. Make use of the ubiquitous sensors in the environment to provide new services and higher returns. Provides a mechanism to leverage the collective insights of your entire organization

Insight for our real world

Leverage Hadoop pilots and expand to include the full array of collaboration and business process data

Close the infrastructure management loop Autonomics and analytics and visualization (drive system & network management costs down)

Make enterprise data self cleansing and accessible

More experimentation with contextual delivery

Focus on filters Low operational cost to user; adaptively social


Business Value

Improves the efficiency and value of all business processes by exposing the best methods and revealing the inefficiencies. Provides process owners with direct data to improve business outcomes and the supporting data; saves time, improves morale.

Visualize business processes

Expose business process flow, attributes and semantics to users Let them tag elements for reference or annotation

Automate their traversal, if desired

Collate into an accurate process map and apply basic analytics

Visualize it for process owners and users

Provide visual reassembly tools to modify as needed

Find common components (by comparing processes)

Ensure users can participate and refine data

Keep processes dynamic and appropriate to business needs


Business Value

These new delivery methods promise to reduce the cost and increase the flexibility of IT services. Cloud computing and data storage offer new possibilities for integration and security of data. Employee choice give mobile employees the IT options to select the standard devices most suitable to their work style.

Embrace clouds and consumer IT

Leverage IBM’s Cloud Data Centers Understand transition barriers (workloads, application redesign, etc.)

Develop financial models for adoption

Expand SaaS web pilots Deepen offerings for mobile and cell-bound workers

Test client virtualization solutions as downloadable working environment

Study and understand task-specific needs of mobile employees for simplified design

Model finances of employee choice Users select and manage their own equipment (that meet security standards)

Develop more pro-active compliance probes; use analytics to monitor data, not employees

Pilot model then deploy when security concerns met


Business Value

Inspires employees to work a large global issue together over a significant period; provides a focus to social computing and the promise of a more integrated and trusting global community. An excellent source for new business opportunities inside and outside our enterprise.

Social energy

Ask IBM employees to innovate on energy technology via social networks Channel employee’s ‘need to achieve’ to find innovative solutions

Work in the open - build out our external ecosystem network

Innovation focus: Global carbon lifecycle monitoring of material supply chains

Implementing smart transportation systems

Rethinking IBM facilities (location, need, etc.)

Global development models in a constrained world

Visualizing daily footprint vs. norms Understanding global perspectives


Business Value

An opportunity to experiment with the work styles of the future and learn the best combination of management and open software platforms that will enable the best in our younger employees. A great opportunity to innovate for IBM and our clients.

Generational hacking

Globalization ‘skunk works on team dynamics Allow early tenure IBM teams to select their own IT tools and work styles

Instrument and study

Development ‘Top-coder’-like spin-offs Services skunk works with visible process and very leveraged compensation

Compare, market and study

Integrate Social Networking with alumni Keep the conversation open and active

Provide visibility into project work that would be compelling

2015 CIO Outlook | IBM CIO Technology and Innovation

Scenario

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Thank you

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2015 CIO Outlook Presentation