© 2015 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

LookingForward:NuclearEnergyChallengesandOpportunities

WilliamD.Magwood,IVDirector-General

NuclearEnergyAgency

UniversityPolitecnicodiMilano4November,2015

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TheNEA:AForumforCooperation  Foundedin1958

  31membercountries

  7standingtechnicalcommittees

  75workingpartiesandexpertgroups

  21internationaljointprojects

© 2015 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

TheNEA'scommitteesbringtogethertopgovernmentalof�icialsandtechnicalspecialistsfromNEAmembercountriesandstrategicpartnerstosolvedif�icultproblems,establishbestpracticesandtopromoteinternationalcollaboration

NEACommitteeStructure

3

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KeyActivitiesoftheNEACommitteeonRadiationProtectionandPublicHealth

  Expert Group on Radiological Protection Aspects of the Fukushima Accident (EGRPF)

  Expert Group on Radiological Protection Science (EGRPS)

  Working Party on Nuclear Emergency Matters (WPNEM)

  Expert Group on Lessons Learnt from Non-nuclear Events (EGNE)

  Fukushima Dialogues (an ICRP initiative cosponsored by NEA)

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21MajorJointProjects(InvolvingcountriesfromwithinandbeyondNEAmembership)

  Nuclearsafetyresearchandexperimental

data(thermal-hydraulics,fuelbehaviour,severeaccidents).

  Nuclearsafetydatabases(�ire,common-causefailures).

  Nuclearscience(thermodynamicsofadvancedfuels).

  Radioactivewastemanagement(thermochemicaldatabase).

  Radiologicalprotection(occupationalexposure).

MajorNEASeparatelyFundedActivities

Secretariat-ServicedOrganisations  GenerationIVInternationalForum(GIF)

withthegoaltoimprovesustainability(includingeffectivefuelutilisationandminimisationofwaste),economics,safetyandreliability,proliferationresistanceandphysicalprotection.

  MultinationalDesignEvaluationProgramme(MDEP)initiativebynationalsafetyauthoritiestoleveragetheirresourcesandknowledgefornewreactordesignreviews.

  InternationalFrameworkforNuclearEnergyCooperation(IFNEC)forumforinternationaldiscussiononwidearrayofnucleartopicsinvolvingbothdevelopedandemergingeconomies.

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MajorNEASeparatelyFundedActivities

21MajorJointProjects(InvolvingcountriesfromwithinandbeyondNEAmembership)

  Nuclearsafetyresearchandexperimental

data(thermal-hydraulics,fuelbehaviour,severeaccidents).

  Nuclearsafetydatabases(�ire,common-causefailures).

  Nuclearscience(thermodynamicsofadvancedfuels).

  Radioactivewastemanagement(thermochemicaldatabase).

  Radiologicalprotection(occupationalexposure).

Secretariat-ServicedOrganisations  GenerationIVInternationalForum—

withthegoaltoimprovesustainability(includingeffectivefuelutilisationandminimisationofwaste),economics,safetyandreliability,proliferationresistanceandphysicalprotection.

  MultinationalDesignEvaluationProgramme—initiativebynationalsafetyauthoritiestoleveragetheirresourcesandknowledgefornewreactordesignreviews.

  InternationalFrameworkforNuclearEnergyCooperation—forumforinternationaldiscussiononwidearrayofnucleartopicsinvolvingbothdevelopedandemergingeconomies.

ACurrentJointProjectBSAF:TheBenchmarkStudyoftheAccidentattheFukushimaDaiichiNuclearPowerPlant–applyingthe

scienti�icinformationgainedfromtheFukushimaDaiichiaccidenttotestandimproveanalysistoolsusedto

ensurenuclearplantsafety.

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FukushimaDaiichi:LearningtheLessonsandMovingForward

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FukushimaDaiichi:KeyNEAConclusionsAftertheAccident

  NEA member countries determined that their reactors were safe to continue operation.

  New safety enhancements related to extreme events and severe accidents have been identified and are being implemented.

  A questioning and learning attitude is essential to continue improving the high level of safety standards and their effective implementation.

  Nuclear safety professionals have a responsibility to hold each other accountable to effectively implement nuclear safety practices.

  The Fukushima Daiichi NPP accident revealed significant human, organisational and cultural challenges — especially the need to ensure the independence, technical capability and transparency of the regulatory authority.

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TheCharacteristicsofanEffectiveNuclearRegulator

NEARegulatoryGuidanceBookletsVolume16,2014,NEA/CNRA/R(2014)3

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GlobalViewofNuclearPowerToday

Sourcedata:WorldNuclearAssociationUpdate2015

Operating reactors, building new reactors Operating reactors, planning new build No reactors, building new reactors No reactors, new in planning Operating reactors, no new build planned Phase-out or foregoing nuclear No reactors

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Loca�on No.ofunits Netcapacity(MW)

Argen�na 1 25

Belarus 2 2218

Brazil 1 1245

China 24 23738

Finland 1 1600

France 1 1630

India 6 3907

Japan 2 1325

Korea 4 5360

Pakistan 2 630

Russia 9 7371

SlovakRepublic 2 880

Ukraine 2 1900

UnitedArabEmirates 3 4035

UnitedStates 5 5633

Other:ChineseTaipei 2 2600

TOTAL: 67 64097

NuclearPowerPlantsunderConstruction(June2015)

Source:IAEAPRIS

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COP21isAroundtheCorner

Source: OECD Environmental Outlook 2050

§  UN-sponsoredmeetingbeginsNovember2015inParis.40,000attendeesareexpected.

§  Countriesplantonegotiateanagreementintendedtolimitglobalwarmingtobelow2°CbyreducingglobalCO2emissionsby50%from1990levels.

§  Energyrepresents60%ofglobalCO2emissionsandthepowersectorproducesthelargestshareofenergy-relatedCO2.

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InternationalEnergyAgency2°CScenario:NuclearisRequiredtoProvidetheLargestContributiontoGlobalElectricityin2050

Source:EnergyTechnologyPerspectives2014

  Scenarioassumesaggressiveenergyef�iciencymeasures–25%ofallCO2emissionssavingswouldbefromef�iciencygains

  Still,globalelectricitydemandisexpectedtotripleby2050.

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GlobalNuclearCapacityinthe2°°CScenario

  930GWby2050(upfrom390GWtoday)–anadditional500reactors  Nuclear’sshareofglobalelectricityrisesto17%(upfrom11%today)  Aformidablechallenge–increasecurrentcapacityby2.3Xin35years  Meanwhile,manycurrentreactorswillretire

(All capacities are gross capacities)

© 2015 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

Source: IEA (2014), World Energy Investment Outlook, International Energy Agency, OECD/IEA, Paris.

ActualInvestmentinEnergySupply:DominatedbyFossilFuels

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NuclearCapacityAdditions

  In2014,3constructionstarts,5GWconnected  Needmorethan12GW/yeartomeettarget  Nuclearisnotontracktoful�ilitsroleinthe2°°CScenario

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2015NEA/IEATechnologyRoadmap

  Providesanoverviewofglobalnuclearenergytoday.  Identi�ieskeytechnologicalmilestonesandinnovationsthatcan

supportsigni�icantgrowthinnuclearenergy.  Identi�iespotentialbarrierstoexpandednucleardevelopment.  Providesrecommendationstopolicy-makersonhowtoreach

milestones&addressbarriers.  Casestudiesdevelopedwithexpertstosupportrecommendations.

ContentsandApproaches

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2015NEA/IEATechnologyRoadmap

  Governmentsshouldrecognizethevalueoflow-carboncapacity.  R&Disneededtosupportlong-termoperation.  IndustryneedstooptimiseconstructabilityofGenIIIdesigns.  AcceleratedevelopmentofSMRs.  SupportdevelopmentofoneortwoGenIVreactors.  Demonstratenucleardesalinationorhydrogenproduction.  Investinenvironmentallysustainableuraniummining.  Continuecooperationanddiscussionsoninternationalfuelservices.  Establishpoliciesandsitesforlong-termstorageanddisposal.

KeyRoadmapRecommendations

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PublicViewsofNuclearWaste

21

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NuclearWaste:AnAreaofContinuingStudy

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DeepGeologicalRepositories

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GlobalLeadersinHLWDisposition

Wastetype Country Location Formation Status ProjectedStartofOperations

HLW/SF Finland Eurajoki Crystallinerock Licencepending 2020HLW/SF Sweden Forsmark Crystallinerock Licencepending 2025HLW/SF Switzerland 3potential

sitesOpalinusclay Sitingregions

identi�ied~2040

LILW-LL&HLW/SF

France RegionofBure(URL)

Callovo-OxfordianClay

Sitingregionidenti�ied

2025

Forsmark,Sweden

Bure,France

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TheTrustFactor:AnElementofNationalPolicyinNEAMember

Countries

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Norway

Sweden

Finland

Switzerland

Australia

Netherlands

Canada

UnitedStates

Japan

Germany

GreatBritain

Italy

RepublicofKorea

RussianFedera�on

Spain

Poland

France

Slovenia

Mexico

Turkey

Respondentsagreeingthat“mostpeoplecanbetrusted”

Source:Datafromthe�ifthWorldValuesSurvey(2005–2008)

www.worldvaluessurvey.org

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FortheLongerTermFuture:NuclearInnovation2050

  Whattechnologieswillbeneededin10years?30years?50years?

  Whatresearchanddevelopmentisneededtomakethesetechnologiesavailable?

  IstheglobalcommunitydoingtheR&Dneededtoprepareforthefuture?

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RememberingtheFutureTheyWayWeWere

Atomic Energy Commission Chairman Glenn Seaborg and

NASA Administrator James Webb July 1961

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NuclearReactors:GenerationsItoIV

Nearly All of Today’s Operating Nuclear Plants

Most New Construction Today

© 2015 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

Graph from C. Behar, “French R&D program on SFR and the ASTRID prototype”, Fast Reactors 2013 conference, see http://www.iaea.org/NuclearPower/Downloadable/Meetings/2013/2013-03-04-03-07-CF-NPTD/6.behar.pdf

ABetterWay?

Benefits   Reduced use of

natural resources)

  Reduced volume waste

  Reduced toxicity (lifetime waste)

Drivers   Better management

of nuclear waste

  Avoid burdening future generations with toxic materials

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ContinuingtheScienti�icEnterprise

KeyAreasofNEAExploration

§  Developmentofadvancedmaterials

§  Multiscale/Multiphysicsmodelling,veri�icationandvalidation.

§  Accidenttolerantfuels.

§  Developingdatabasesofexperimentalresults—suchasthoseexaminingthebehaviourofmaterialsingeologicrepositories.

ANewBrandofJointProject  Advanced,multinational

researchthatincludesuniversitiesaswellasresearchlabs

  Strongroleforstudentsandprofessorsinaddressingimportantscienceandtechnologyissues

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Moreinformation@www.oecd-nea.orgAllNEAreportsareavailablefordownloadfreeofcharge.

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