2014 Midterm Elections

and Beyond

2

2014 Midterm Elections: All Seats in Play, by Party

Source: The Cook Political Report.

Senate

HouseAll seats in play, but 64 considered competitive or potentially competitive Governors

36

64

3614

371

64

22 14

3826

15 21Senate: To win the majority, Republicans would have to score a net gain of six seats.

House: Democrats need a net gain of 17 seats to reach a majority in 2014.

Competitive Senate Midterm Races

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Recommendations and detected threats

OHWV

VA

PA

NY

ME

NC

SC

GA

TN

KY

IN

MI

WI

MN

IL

LATX

OK

ID

NV

OR

WA

CA

AZNM

CO

WY

MT ND

SD

IA

UT

FL

AR

MO

MS AL

NE

KS

VT

NH

MARICT

NJ

DE

MD

AK

HI

NC: Sen. Hagan (D) is holding on to an ever-slimming lead in the polls as election day nears

AR: Sen. Pryor (D) faces an uphill battle against Republican opponent Tom Cotton in an increasingly conservative state

AK: Sen. Begich (D) is facing former Natural Resources Commissioner Dan Sullivan (R); Sullivan has recently polled well against Begich

LA: Sen. Landrieu (D) is likely to head to a December runoff election against Rep. Bill Cassidy (R)

KY: Sen. McConnell (R) is running neck and neck in the polls with Kentucky Secretary of State Alison Grimes (D), but the DSCC has pulled funding from the raceGA: Michelle Nunn (D) has seen good

polling numbers during October, but may face a January runoff against Republican David Perdue (R) with a less favorable electorate

Source: Scott Bland, Andrea Drusch, and Alex Roarty, “Hotline’s Senate Race Rankings: Republicans On The Brink,” National Journal’s Hotline, October 13, 2014.

MI: Rep. Gary Peters (D) is slightly favored to win this open seat after a weak campaign from Michigan Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land (R)

Republican Senators

Democratic Senators

Open Senate Seats

SD: A once-sure Republican victory has escalated into a competitive three-way race as front-runner Mike Rounds (R) has been embroiled in scandal and Rick Weiland (D) and Larry Pressler (I) have seen increased outside spending on their behalves

CO: Sen. Udall (D) has fallen behind in the polls to Rep. Cory Gardner (R) as the race nears its conclusion, but a strong turnout operation may save him

NH: Sen. Shaheen (D) has seen a once-strong polling lead collapse after a barrage of outside spending on behalf of opponent Scott Brown (R)

KS: Sen. Roberts (R), even without a Democratic opponent, is facing an extremely close re-election battle against businessman Greg Orman (I)

IA: Rep. Bruce Braley (D) has been unable to escape a series of gaffes and is now an underdog against State Sen. Joni Ernst (R)

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Key Senate Races

Alaska Dan Sullivan (R) Mark Begich (D)*

Arkansas Tom Cotton (R) Mark Pryor (D)*

Colorado Cory Gardner (R) Mark Udall (D)*

Georgia David Perdue (R) Michelle Nunn (D)

Iowa Joni Ernst (R) Bruce Braley (D)

Kansas Pat Roberts (R)*Greg Orman (I)

Kentucky Mitch McConnell (R)* Alison Lundergan Grimes (D)

*Incumbent

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Key Senate Races

*Incumbent

Louisiana Bill Cassidy (R) Mary Landrieu (D)*

Michigan Terri Lynn Land (R) Gary Peters (D)

Montana Steve Daines (R) Amanda Curtis (D)

New Hampshire Scott Brown (R) Jeanne Shaheen (D)*

North Carolina Thom Tillis (R) Kay Hagan (D)*

South Dakota Mike Rounds (R) Rick Weiland (D) Larry Pressler (I)

West Virginia Shelley Moore Capito (R) Natalie Tennant (D)

6

Senate Appropriations Committee OverviewJurisdiction

Committee Members

Republicans (14)

• Vice Chairman:Richard Shelby (R-AL)

• Thad Cochran (R-MS)*• Mitch McConnell (R-KY)*• Lamar Alexander (R-TN)*• Susan Collins (R-ME)*• Lisa Murkowski (R-AK)• Lindsey Graham (R-SC)*• Mark Kirk (R-IL)• Dan Coats (R-IN)• Roy Blunt (R-MO)• Jerry Moran (R-KS)• John Hoeven (R-ND)• Mike Johanns (R-NE)• John Boozman (R-AR)

Democrats (16)

• Chair: Barbara Mikulski (D-MD)

• Patrick Leahy (D-VT)• Tom Harkin (D-IA)• Patty Murray (D-WA)• Dianne Feinstein (D-CA)• Richard Durbin (D-IL)*• Tim Johnson (D-SD)• Mary Landrieu (D-LA)*• Jack Reed (D-RI)* • Mark Pryor (D-AR)*• Jon Tester (D-MT)• Tom Udall (D-NM)*• Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH)*• Jeff Merkley (D-OR)*• Mark Begich (D-AK)*• Chris Coons (D-DE)*

The Senate Appropriations Committee is responsible for all discretionary spending legislation in the Senate. It is also the largest committee in the Senate.

*Up for re-election in 2014Sen. Retiring after 2014

7

Senate Labor/HHS/Education Appropriations Subcommittee Overview

Jurisdiction

Committee Members

Republicans (7)

• Ranking Member: Jerry Moran (R-KS)

• Richard Shelby (R-AL)• Lamar Alexander (R-TN)*• Lindsey Graham (R-SC)*• Mark Kirk (R-IL)• Mike Johanns (R-NE)• John Boozman (R-AR)

Democrats (10)

• Chair: Tom Harkin (D-IA)• Patty Murray (D-WA• Mary Landrieu (D-LA)*• Richard Durbin (D-IL)*• Jack Reed (D-RI)* • Mark Pryor (D-AR)*• Barbara Mikulski (D-MD)• Jon Tester (D-MT)• Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH)*• Jeff Merkley (D-OR)*

The Senate Labor, Health and Human Services, Education and Related Agencies Appropriations Subcommittee is responsible for all discretionary spending legislation for the Departments of Labor, Health and Human Services, and Education in the Senate.

*Up for re-election in 2014Sen. Retiring after 2014

8

Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee Overview

Jurisdiction

Committee Members

Republicans (10)

• Ranking Member: Mike Crapo (R-ID)

• Richard Shelby (R-AL)• Bob Corker (R-TN)• David Vitter (R-LA)• Mike Johanns (R-NE)• Pat Toomey (R-PA)• Mark Kirk (R-IL)• Jerry Moran (R-KS)• Tom Coburn (R-OK)• Dean Heller (R-NV)

Democrats (12)

• Chairman: Tim Johnson (D-SD)

• Jack Reed (D-RI)*• Chuck Schumer (D-NY)• Bob Menendez (D-NJ)• Sherrod Brown (D-OH)• Jon Tester (D-MT)• Mark Warner (D-VA)*• Jeff Merkley (D-OR)*• Kay Hagan (D-NC)*• Joe Manchin (D-WV)*• Elizabeth Warren (D-

MA)• Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND)

The Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee focuses on legislation related to banking, insurance, financial markets, housing, mass transit, and other economic issues.

*Up for re-election in 2014

Sen. Retiring after 2014

Senate Budget Committee Overview

9

Jurisdiction

Committee Members

Republicans (10)

• Ranking Member: Jeff Sessions, (R-AL)*

• Chuck Grassley (R-IA)• Mike Enzi (R-WY)*• Mike Crapo (R-ID)• Lindsey Graham (R-SC)*• Rob Portman (R-OH)• Pat Toomey (R-PA)• Ron Johnson (R-WI)• Kelly Ayote (R-NH)• Roger Wicker (R-MS)

Democrats (12)

• Chairman: Patty Murray (D-WA)

• Ron Wyden (D-OR)• Bill Nelson (D-FL)• Debbie Stabenow (D-MI)• Bernie Sanders (I-VT)• Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI)• Mark Warner (D-VA)* • Jeff Merkley (D-OR)*• Chris Coons (D-DE)*• Tammy Baldwin (D-WI)• Tim Kaine (D-VA)• Angus King (I-ME)

The Senate Budget Committee is responsible for oversight of the federal budget process, including regular appropriations as well as the budgets of agencies and programs funded outside of the normal budgetary process.

*Up for re-election in 2014

$

Two Independents caucus with

the Democrats

10

Senate HELP Committee Overview

Jurisdiction

Committee Members

Republicans (10)

• Ranking Member: Lamar Alexander (R-TN)*

• Mike Enzi (R-WY)*• Richard Burr (R-NC)• Johnny Isakson (R-GA)• Rand Paul (R-KY)• Orrin Hatch (R-UT)• Pat Roberts (R-KS)*• Lisa Murkowski (R-AK)• Mark Kirk (R-IL)• Tim Scott (R-SC)*

Democrats (12)

• Chairman: Tom Harkin (D-IA)

• Barbara Mikulski (D-MD)• Patty Murray (D-WA)• Bernie Sanders (I-VT)• Bob Casey (D-PA)• Kay Hagan (D-NC)*• Al Franken (D-MN)*• Michael Bennet (D-CO)• Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI)• Tammy Baldwin (D-WI)• Chris Murphy (D-CT)• Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)

The Senate HELP (Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions) Committee deals with the wide range of issues encompassed by its acronym, including higher ed policy, occupational health and safety, and medical research and development.

*Up for re-election in 2014Sen. Retiring after 2014

11

Current House Breakdown

* Includes two currently vacant Democratic seats

AnalysisDemocrats need a 17-seat gain to win control of the House in 2014

Number of House seats in the 113th Congress, by party*

Source: Cook Political Report.

2014 House Elections

12

Only 64 Competitive or Potentially Competitive Seats in the House in 2014

Number of House seats in the 113th Congress, by party

Source: Cook Political Report.

2014 House Elections

218

Only 64 seats currently competitive or potentially competitive

13

Democrat-held seats (38) Republican-held seats (26)

12

11

12

15

2014 House Race VulnerabilitiesBreakdown of competitive* House seats by Cook Political Report

Rating64 total competitive or potentially competitive seats

5

5

2014 House Elections

Source: The Cook Political Report.

1

2

1

14

House Appropriations Committee Overview

Jurisdiction

Committee Members

Ranking Member: Nita Lowey (D-NY)Marcy Kaptur (D-OH)Pete Visclosky (D-IN)José Serrano (D-NY) Rosa DeLauro (D-CT) Jim Moran (D-VA)Ed Pastor (D-AZ)David Price (D-NC)Lucille Roybal-Allard (D-CA)Sam Farr (D-CA)Chaka Fattah (D-PA)Sanford Bishop (D-GA)Barbara Lee (D-CA)Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-FL)Betty McCollum (D-MN)Adam Schiff (D-CA)Mike Honda (D-CA)Tim Ryan (D-OH) Henry Cuellar (D-TX)Chellie Pingree (D-ME)Mike Quigley (D-IL)Bill Owens (D-NY)

The House Committee on Appropriations is responsible for setting expenditures of money by the government.

Republicans (29)

Democrats (22)Chairman: Hal Rogers (R-KY)Frank Wolf (R-VA)Jack Kingston (R-GA)Rodney Frelinghuysen (R-NJ)Tom Latham (R-IA)Robert Aderholt (R-AL)Kay Granger (R-TX)Mike Simpson (R-ID)John Culberson (R-TX)Ander Crenshaw (R-FL)John Carter (R-TX)Ken Calvert (R-CA)Tom Cole (R-OK)Mario Diaz-Balart (R-FL)Charlie Dent (R-PA)Tom Graves (R-GA)Jaime Herrera Beutler (R-WA)Steve Womack (R-AR)Alan Nunnelee (R-MS)Jeff Fortenberry (R-NE)Thomas Rooney (R-FL)Chuck Fleischmann (R-TN)Kevin Yoder (R-KS)David Joyce (R-OH)David Valadao (R-CA)Andy Harris (R-MD)Martha Roby (R-AL)Mark Amodei (R-NV)Chris Stewart (R-UT)

*Tossup Race According to the Cook Political Report

Rep. Retiring after 2014

15

House Labor/HHS/Education Appropriations Subcommittee Overview

Jurisdiction

Committee Members

The House Labor, Health and Human Services, Education and Related Agencies Appropriations Subcommittee is responsible for all discretionary spending legislation for the Departments of Labor, Health and Human Services, and Education in the House.

*Up for re-election in 2014Rep. Retiring after 2014

Democrats (5)

• Ranking Member: Rosa DeLauro (D-CT)

• Nita Lowey (D-NY)• Lucille Roybal-Allard (D-CA)• Barbara Lee (D-CA)• Mike Honda (D-CA)

Republicans (7)

• Chair: Jack Kingston (R-GA)• Steve Womack (R-AR)• Chuck Fleischmann (R-TN)• David Joyce (R-OH)• Andy Harris (R-MD)• Martha Roby (R-AL)• Chris Stewart (R-UT)

16

House Budget Committee Overview

Jurisdiction

Committee Members

Ranking Member: Chris Van Hollen (D-MD)John Yarmuth (D-KY)Bill Pascrell (D-NJ)Tim Ryan (D-OH)Gwen Moore (D-WI)Kathy Castor (D-FL)Jim McDermott (D-WA)Barbara Lee (D-CA)Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY)Mark Pocan (D-WI)Michelle Lujan Grisham (D-NM)Jared Huffman (D-CA)Tony Cárdenas (D-CA)Earl Blumenauer (D-OR)Kurt Schrader (D-OR)Lloyd Doggett (D-TX)Dan Kildee (D-MI)

The House Budget Committee is responsible for oversight of the federal budget process, including regular appropriations and funding for other programs.

Republicans (21)

Democrats (17)

Chairman: Paul Ryan (R-WI)Tom Price (R-GA)Scott Garrett (R-NJ)John Campbell (R-CA)Ken Calvert (R-CA)Tom Cole (R-OK)Tom McClintock (R-CA)James Lankford (R-OK)Diane Black (R-TN)Reid Ribble (R-WI)Bill Flores (R-TX)Todd Rokita (R-IN)Rob Woodall (R-GA)Marsha Blackburn (R-TN)Alan Nunnelee (R-MS)Scott Rigell (R-VA)Vicky Hartzler (R-MO)Jackie Walorski (R-IN)Tom Rice (R-SC)Roger Williams (R-TX)Sean Duffy (R-WI)

$

*Tossup Race According to the Cook Political Report

Rep. Retiring after 2014

17

House Education and the Workforce Committee OverviewJurisdiction

Committee Members

Ranking Member: George Miller (D-CA)Bobby Scott (D-VA)Ruben Hinojosa (D-TX)Carolyn McCarthy (D-NY)John Tierney (D-MA)Rush Holt (D-NJ)Susan Davis (D-CA)Raul Grijalva (D-AZ)Tim Bishop (D-NY)David Loebsack (D-IA)Joe Courtney (D-CT)Marcia Fudge (D-OH)Jared Polis (D-CO)Gregorio Sablan (D-MP)Fredrica Wilson (D-FL)Mark Pocan (D-WI)Mark Takano (D-CA)

The House Education and the Workforce Committee oversees issues relating to employer/employee relations, workplace regulations, and education policy.

Republicans (23)

Democrats (17)

Chairman: John Kline (R-MN)Thomas Petri (R-CA)Buck McKeon (R-CA)Joe Wilson (R-SC)Virginia Foxx (R-NC)Tom Price (R-GA)Kenny Marchant (R-TX)Duncan Hunter (R-CA)David Roe (R-TN)Glenn Thompson (R-PA)Tim Walberg (R-MI)Matt Salmon (R-AZ)Brett Guthrie (R-KY)Scott DesJarlais (R-TN)Todd Rotika (R-IN)Larry Bucshon (R-IN)Lou Barletta (R-PA)Joe Heck (R-NV)Mike Kelly (R-PA)Susan Brooks (R-IN)Richard Hudson (R-NC)Luke Messer (R-IN)Bradley Byrne (R-AL)

*Tossup Race According to the Cook Political Report

Rep. Retiring after 2014

18

House Financial Services Committee Overview

Jurisdiction

Committee Members

Ranking Member: Maxine Waters (D-CA)Carolyn B. Maloney (D-NY)Nydia Velázquez (D-NY)Brad Sherman (D-CA)Gregory W. Meeks (D-NY)Michael Capuano (D-MA)Ruben Hinojosa (D-TX)William Clay, Jr. (D-MO)Carolyn McCarthy (D-NY)Stephen Lynch (D-MA)David Scott (D-GA)Al Green (D-TX)Emanuel Cleaver (D-MO)Gwen Moore (D-WI)Keith Ellison (D-MN)Ed Perlmutter (D-CO)Jim Himes (D-CT)Gary Peters (D-MI)John Carney (D-DE)Terri Sewell (D-AL)Bill Foster (D-IL)Dan Kildee (D-MI)Patrick Murphy (D-FL)John Delaney (D-MD)Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ)Joyce Beatty (D-OH)Denny Heck (D-WA)Steven Horsford (D-NV)

The House Finance Committee oversees legislation relating to securities, insurance, banking, and housing.

Blaine Luetkemeyer (R-MO)Bill Huizenga (R-MI)Sean Duffy (R-WI)Jim Renacci (R-OH)Robert Hurt (R-VA)Steve Stivers (R-OH)Stephen Fincher (R-TN)Marlin Stutzman (R-IN)Mick Mulvaney (R-SC)Randy Hultgren (R-IL)Dennis A. Ross (R-FL)Robert Pittenger (R-NC)Ann Wagner (R-MO)Andy Barr (R-KY)Tom Cotton (R-AK)Keith Rothfus (R-PA)Luke Messer (R-IN)

Republicans (34)

Democrats (28)

Chairman: Jeb Hensarling (R-TX)Gary Miller (R-CA)Spencer Bachus (R-AL)Peter T. King (R-NY)Ed Royce (R-CA)Frank Lucas (R-OK)Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV)Scott Garrett (R-NJ)Randy Neugebauer (R-TX)Patrick McHenry (R-NC)John Campbell (R-CA)Michele Bachmann (R-MN)Kevin McCarthy (R-CA)Steve Pearce (R-NM)Bill Posey (R-FL)Mike Fitzpatrick (R-PA)Lynn Westmoreland (R-GA)

*Tossup race according to the Cook Political Report

Rep. Retiring after 2014

19

Congressional Leadership

Current House Leadership

Speaker of the HouseJohn Boehner (R-OH)

Majority LeaderKevin McCarthy (R-CA)

Majority WhipSteve Scalise (R-LA)

Democratic LeaderNancy Pelosi (D-CA)

Democratic WhipSteny Hoyer (D-MD)

Current Senate Leadership

Majority LeaderHarry Reid (D-NV)

Majority WhipRichard Durbin (D-IL)

Minority LeaderMitch McConnell (R-KY)

Minority WhipJohn Cornyn (R-TX)