2014 HURRICANE SEASONMatt Moreland

National Weather Service New Orleans/Baton Rouge

Marine Industry DayMay 22, 2014

Communicating RiskIsaac didn’t fit people’s preconceived

notions?

• “This is just a CAT 1 hurricane”• “It has never flooded here before”• “I’ve been through Katrina and Gustav, this is nothing”• “I saw the news break into programming, that GFS

thing says it won’t come here, phew!”• “This is the same surge forecast as Gustav and I didn’t

flood then”• “My app has most of those lines way east of here. I like

the one that says CLIPER”• “We are going to evacuate for all CAT1 hurricanes from

now on”• “Ah great, I have a GIS map. Finally something

accurate”• “We just had our 100 year storm last year”

Communicating Risk

• Categorizes hurricanes into 5 levels of intensity based on wind speeds alone• Ignores other threats such as wind

duration, storm surge, heavy rainfall, river flooding, etc

• No such thing as “just a category 1” or “only a tropical storm” • Can give people a dangerous and

false sense of safety/security

Saffir-Simpson Scale

• National Hurricane Center Provides 5 Day Forecasts.• However, advisories are only

issued when weather system has been classified as a tropical depression or storm.

• Systems that develop in northwest Caribbean or Gulf may not always allow 5 days of lead time and preparation.

Lead time is great…IF you have it.

2014 Seasonal Outlook

El Niño or La Niña Watch: Issued when conditions

are favorable for the development of El Niño or La Niña conditions within

the next six months.

El Nino tends to decrease the number of storms in

the Atlantic basin

El Nino ConditionsExpected

2013 Average

Colo. State

April 10

NOAA

Named Storms 14 12 9 ??

Hurricanes 2 6 3 ??

Major Hurricanes 0 2 1 ??

Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)

31 92 55 ??

2014 Seasonal Outlook● NOAA Outlook issued today! ● Development of El Nino circulation will be a

major factor

*CAUTION* It only takes one storm to make a “bad” season

• Moderate El Niño

• Below normal activity

• 8 Named Storms• 2 Hurricanes • 1 Major Hurricane

• Audrey – Cat 4

1957: Inactive SeasonHigh Impact for FL/LA

1965: Inactive SeasonHigh Impact for FL/LA

• Strong El Niño

• Well below normal activity

• 6 Named Storms• 1 Tropical Storm• 5 Hurricanes• Betsy caused

significant impacts across FL and LA

• Neutral El Niño

• Well below normal activity

• 7 Named Storms• 3 Tropical Storms • 4 Hurricanes• Andrew caused

significant impacts across FL and LA

1992: Inactive SeasonHigh Impact for FL/LA

• Moderate El Niño

• 6* Named Storms• 3 Tropical Storms • 3 Hurricanes• Hurricane Danny:

moderate impacts in LA/MS, but heavy rains had significant impact in AL

1997: Inactive SeasonModerate Impact for

LA/MS

*2 additional named storms were re-classified as non-tropical in post-season analysis

Coming for the 2014 season…5-day Graphical TWO

Based on P-Surge output

Developed in concert with social science research

Implementation of experimental inundation graphic will commence this year

Will NOT indicate potential overtopping of levees

Inundation GraphicsComing this year…

14

You Are NOT Always

in the Office Emergency Response Support Mobile Tool

NWS New Orleans2014 Hurricane Season

● One PowerPoint, One Message!● Decisions based on the same

sheet of music● Use the briefings in your EOCs

and your briefings● Spot Forecasts

● Explosions● Leaks, Spills, Collisions● Fires● Security Operations● ***Adding Aviation Soon***

Deployments MediaBriefings

SWERV

WFO New Orleans

• Website: www.weather.gov• Twitter: @NWSNewOrleans• Facebook: US National Weather Service New

Orleans

Stronger Social Media Presence

Website – www.weather.gov/neworleans Briefings (INTERNAL)

http://weather.gov/neworleans/?n=embrief

Telephone – 985-649-0429 x4 504-522-7330 x4

Ken Graham – Meteorologist-in-Charge Kenneth.Graham@noaa.gov

Frank Revitte – Warning Coordination Meteorologist Frank.Revitte@noaa.gov

Matt Moreland – Emergency Response Meteorologist Matt.Moreland@noaa.gov

NWS New OrleansContact Info