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CREB® 2015 Calgary economic and housing update
2014: CALGARY HOUSING MARKET EXCEEDED EXPECTATIONS
QUARTER 1: Average months of supply: 1.36 Quarterly price growth: 2.55%
15%
1%
SALES GROWTH NEW LISTINGS GROWTH
QUARTER 2: Average months of supply: 1.61 Quarterly price growth: 4.11%
13% 17%
QUARTER 3: Average months of supply: 2.05 Quarterly price growth: 1.64% 6%
16%
EMPLOYMENT
NET MIGRATION
WAGE GROWTH
LENDING RATES
RENTAL MARKET
Annual 2014 Y/Y %
Sales 25,545 9.36
New Listings 36,172 13.07
Benchmark Price $451,008 9.85
QUARTER 4: Average months of supply: 2.17 Quarterly price growth: 0.17%
3%
20%
CREB® 2015 Calgary economic and housing update
2014 TOTAL RESIDENTIAL PRICE GROWTH VARY BY AREA
C $498,000 4.84%
E $303,050 13.93%
SE $425,000 8.97%
S $425,000 7.19%
NE $347,000 10.16%
NW $484,900 8.24%
N $425,000 8.97%
W $552,500 5.44%
CITY OF CALGARY: Median Price $425,600
Median Price Growth 6.40%
CREB® 2015 Calgary economic and housing update
2014 SURROUNDING AREAS
Detached Homes
City of Calgary Airdrie Cochrane Chestermere Okotoks
Benchmark Price (‘000) $508 $383 $415 $477 $439
Square Footage 1,296 1,449 1,442 1,845 1,437
Lot Size 4,866 4,665 5,759 5,592 5,037
Age of Property 16 6 8 5 6
CREB® 2015 Calgary economic and housing update
OIL PRICES – IMPACT ON HOUSING?
25
35
45
55
65
75
85
95
105
115
125
135
Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16
WTI PRICE
WTI Price Crude Oil Futures High LowSource: U.S. Energy Information Administration, CME Group
CREB® 2015 Calgary economic and housing update
2015: ECONOMIC FACTORS INFLUENCING HOUSING DEMAND
ENERGY PRICES
NET MIGRATION WAGE GROWTH
LENDING RATES
RENTAL VACANCIES
EMPLOYMENT GROWTH
INVESTMENT
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
HOUSING DEMAND
CREB® 2015 Calgary economic and housing update
DECLINE IN OIL TO IMPACT INVESTMENT SPENDING
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
$Billions INVESTMENT SPENDING ALBERTA
Source: Alberta Government, adapted from Statistics Canada Cansim table 029-005,
(E)
CREB® 2015 Calgary economic and housing update
EMPLOYMENT GROWTH FORECAST REMAINS POSITIVE
2.90% 2.75%
0.90%
1.90%
500,000
550,000
600,000
650,000
700,000
750,000
800,000
850,000
900,000
-2.00%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
CALGARY CMA EMPLOYMENT GROWTH
% Change (Y/Y) Total Employment
Y/Y % Change Average Annual Employed
FORECAST
Source: Seasonally adjusted datea, Statistics Canada, Conference Board of Canada Forecast
CREB® 2015 Calgary economic and housing update
CALGARY CMA MIGRATION TO SLOW
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
CALGARY CMA NET MIGRATION
FORECAST
Source: Statistics Canada, Conference Board of Canada adjustment, Conference Board of Canada Forecast
CREB® 2015 Calgary economic and housing update
RENTAL MARKET VACANCIES TO RISE
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
CALGARY CMA RENTAL MARKET
Vacancy Rates, Row and Apartment 3 units and over - CalgaryCalgary Average Rent Apartment three units and over - two bedroom Source: CMHC, CMHC Forecast
FORECAST
CREB® 2015 Calgary economic and housing update
WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR HOUSING?
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (F)
CALGARY SALES FORECAST
sales 10 year average sales growthSource: CREB®
CREB® 2015 Calgary economic and housing update
PRICES REMAIN STABLE DUE TO SUPPLY SITUATION
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
CALGARY BENCHMARK PRICE AND GROWTH
benchmark price growth Annual Average Price Growthbenchmark price Benchmark Price Annual Average
Source: CREB®
FORECAST
CREB® 2015 Calgary economic and housing update
INVENTORIES STILL RELATIVELY LOW
-
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14
CALGARY INVENTORY AND SALES TO NEW LISTINGS RATIO
inventory trend (12 M) sales to new listings ratio (12 M) Source: CREB®
CREB® 2015 Calgary economic and housing update
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
CALGARY CMA HOUSING STARTS
Single Family Multi Family Source: CMHC, Conference Board of Canada Forecast
FORECAST
GROWTH IN STARTS SHOULD HELP EASE SUPPLY PRESSURE
CREB® 2015 Calgary economic and housing update
COMPETITION IN NEW HOME MARKET
17%
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14
CALGARY CMA UNDER CONSTRUCTION
Single Family Multi Family Source: CMHC
CREB® 2015 Calgary economic and housing update
COMPETITION IN NEW HOME MARKET
17%
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14
CALGARY CMA NEWLY COMPLETED AND UNOCCUPIED
Single Family Multi Family Source: CMHC
CREB® 2015 Calgary economic and housing update
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
-
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14
CALGARY MONTHS OF SUPPLY AND PRICE CHANGES
months of supply trend (12 M) benchmark y/y price change Source: CREB®
TIGHT CONDITIONS MOVING INTO THIS CYCLE
CREB® 2015 Calgary economic and housing update
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
2014 2015 (F)
City of Calgary Sales Growth 9.36% -4.08%
City of Calgary Price Growth 9.85% 1.58%
Key indicators to watch
• Employment • Migration • Housing Supply levels
CREB® 2015 Calgary economic and housing update
DATA CHANGES
Detached, 59.21%
Attached, 22.06%
Apartment, 18.73%
2014 SHARE OF CALGARY RESIDENTIAL SALES SINGLE FAMILY – 67% • All properties freehold titled • Nearly 88% properties detached
APARTMENT – 18% • Condominium titled • Apartment high rise or low rise buildings
TOWNHOUSE – 15% • Condominium titled • Not apartment
CREB® 2015 Calgary economic and housing update
DESPITE DECLINES, LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY STRONG
Annual Sales 2014 2015 (F)
Detached 15,097 14,372
Attached 5,647 5,435
Apartment 4,801 4,695
-4.80%
-2.20%
-3.75%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2013 2014 2015 (F)
CALGARY FORECAST SALES COMPARISON
Deatched Sales Growth Apartment Sales Growth Attached Sales GrowthSource: CREB®
CREB® 2015 Calgary economic and housing update
CONDITIONS VARY DEPENDING ON PROPERTY TYPE
-
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
Jan.2001
Jan.2002
Jan.2003
Jan.2004
Jan.2005
Jan.2006
Jan.2007
Jan.2008
Jan.2009
Jan.2010
Jan.2011
Jan.2012
Jan.2013
Jan.2014
CALGARY MONTHS OF SUPPLY COMPARISON
Detached Apartment Attached Source: CREB®
CREB® 2015 Calgary economic and housing update
PRICE GROWTH TO EASE
Annual Price 2014 2015 (F)
Detached $508,233 $517,382
Apartment $294,492 $297,437
Attached $348,483 $353,711
1.80%
1.00%
1.50%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
2013 2014 2015 (F)
CALGARY FORECAST PRICE COMPARISON
Detached Price Growth Apartment Price Growth Attached Price Growth Source: CREB®
CREB® 2015 Calgary economic and housing update
Ann-Marie Lurie Chief Economist Direct: 403.781.1372 Email: [email protected]
QUESTIONS? 1:00 – 2:00 INDUSTRY EXPERT PANEL PALOMINO D 2:30 – 3:30 LOOKING FORWARD WITH HOUSING STATISTICS PALOMINO D