8/13/2019 2013PalisadeRiskConfVegas HuybertGroenendaal Uncertainty and Variability

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Uncertainty

n 100

s 8

proportion of infection #NAME?

areas within a region population in the region Correct uncertainty Duplicating uncertai

A 10,000 #NAME? #NAME?

B 5,000 #NAME? #NAME?

C 6,000 #NAME? #NAME?

D 1,000 #NAME? #NAME?

E 9,000 #NAME? #NAME?

Total infected in region next week #NAME? #NAME?

Problem:model showing why correctly modeling uncertainty and variability can impact the results of a

(and sampled) once per iteration, whereas variability should be different for each subject modeled

We randomly sample 100 individuals in a region and 8 have a disease. How many infected

individuals are there in areas A-E within the region?

Overlay these two cells to see

a simple assumption can have

impact int he results. The SD

uncertainty calculation is twi

large as for the variabilit

calculation!

http://www.epixanalytics.com/

8/13/2019 2013PalisadeRiskConfVegas HuybertGroenendaal Uncertainty and Variability

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nd variability

Proportion of infection (varies per area) Alternative

#NAME? #NAME?

#NAME?

#NAME?

#NAME?

#NAME?

odel. Uncertainty can only be represented

how

large

f the

ce as

This model illustrates a specific risk modeling te

and/or method. The techniques and methods sh

this model may be used freely by anyone.

For any questions or comments, please contact:

Dr. Huybert GroenendaalManaging Partner

EpiX Analytics

huybert@epixanalytics.com

p: +1 303 440 8524

THIS MODEL IS PROVIDED BY THE COPYRIGHT H

CONTRIBUTORS "AS IS" AND ANY EXPRESS OR IM

WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO,

WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY AND FITNES

PARTICULAR PURPOSE ARE DISCLAIMED. IN NO E

THE COPYRIGHT OWNER OR CONTRIBUTORS BE

ANY DIRECT, INDIRECT, INCIDENTAL, SPECIAL, EX

CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES (INCLUDING, BUT N

TO, PROCUREMENT OF SUBSTITUTE GOODS OR S

LOSS OF USE, DATA, OR PROFITS; OR BUSINESS

INTERRUPTION) HOWEVER CAUSED AND ON AN

LIABILITY, WHETHER IN CONTRACT, STRICT LIABI

(INCLUDING NEGLIGENCE OR OTHERWISE) ARISI

WAY OUT OF THE USE OF THIS SOFTWARE, EVEN

OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DAMAGE.

For more @RISK example models and a free @RI

see http://www.epixanalytics.com/ModelAssist.

8/13/2019 2013PalisadeRiskConfVegas HuybertGroenendaal Uncertainty and Variability

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chnique

own within

LDERS AND

PLIED

, THE IMPLIED

S FOR A

VENT SHALL

IABLE FOR

EMPLARY, OR

T LIMITED

ERVICES;

THEORY OF

LITY, OR TORT

G IN ANY

IF ADVISED

SK traing too,

tml.