201307041012430.Indonesian Airspace Sectorisation, CONOPS and Capacity Studies Final Report

Indonesian Airspace Sectorisation, Conops and Capacity Studies

Final Report

Indonesian Airspace Sectorisation, Concept of Operations and Capacity Studies

Final Report

Sub-Title 14pt Type Here

Indonesian Airspace Sectorisation, Concept of Operations and Capacity Studies

Final Report

CONSULTANT REPORT

October 2012

INDONESIA INFRASTRUCTURE INITIATIVE

This document has been published by the Indonesia Infrastructure Initiative (IndII), an Australian Government funded project designed to promote economic growth in Indonesia by enhancing the relevance, quality and quantum of infrastructure investment.

The views expressed in this report do not necessarily reflect the views of the Australia Indonesia Partnership or the Australian Government. Please direct any comments or questions to the IndII Director, tel. +62 (21) 230-6063, fax +62 (21) 3190-2994. Website: www.indii.co.id.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

This report has been prepared by John McCarthy (Project Manager), Peter Atkins (International Consultant) and Novaro Martodihardjo for Strategic Airspace Pty Ltd, engaged under the Indonesia Infrastructure Initiative (IndII), funded by AusAID, as part of the Activities #289 and #290.

The support provided by the staff at IndII, Directorate General of Civil Aviation, Angkasa Pura I, Angkasa Pura II and Cathy Pak-Poy (Strategic Airspace) in the preparation of this report, is gratefully acknowledged.

Any errors of fact or interpretation are solely those of the authors.

Peter Atkins and John McCarthy

Jakarta, October 2012

© IndII 2012

All original intellectual property contained within this document is the property of the Indonesia Infrastructure Initiative (IndII). It can be used freely without attribution by consultants and IndII partners in preparing IndII documents, reports designs and plans; it can also be used freely by other agencies or organisations, provided attribution is given.

Every attempt has been made to ensure that referenced documents within this publication have been correctly attributed. However, IndII would value being advised of any corrections required, or advice concerning source documents and/ or updated data.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

ACRONYMS .............................................................................................................. V

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................... VII

CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................... 1

1.1 RELATIONSHIPS OF PROPOSED PROJECTS ............................................... 2

1.2 SCOPING STUDY OBJECTIVES .............................................................. 3

CHAPTER 2: CONTEXT ............................................................................................... 5

2.1 GEOGRAPHY ................................................................................... 5

2.2 POLITICAL AND ORGANISATIONAL ........................................................ 6

2.3 AIR TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT ............................................................... 8

2.3.1 Characteristics Common To Both FIRs ..................................... 8 2.3.2 Air Traffic Management - Jakarta FIR ..................................... 10 2.3.3 Air Traffic Management — Ujung Pandang FIR ..................... 13

2.4 COMMUNICATION, NAVIGATION AND SURVEILLANCE (CNS) .................... 15

2.5 AVIATION ACTIVITY ........................................................................ 17

CHAPTER 3: STAKEHOLDERS ................................................................................... 19

3.1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................. 19

3.2 OVERVIEW OF STAKEHOLDER MANAGEMENT ....................................... 19

3.3 KEY INDONESIAN STAKEHOLDER GROUPS ............................................ 20

3.4 EXTERNAL ATM AND FOREIGN AGENCIES ............................................ 21

3.5 STAKEHOLDER ASSESSMENT ............................................................. 23

CHAPTER 4: KEY FINDINGS...................................................................................... 25

4.1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................. 25

4.2 ASSESSMENT OF INDONESIAN ATM CONTEXT ...................................... 25

4.3 ASSESSMENT OF INDONESIAN AGENCIES CAPABILITIES ............................ 27

4.4 POTENTIAL FOREIGN AID CHARACTERISTICS AFFECTING THE PROJECTS ........ 28

4.5 RISK PROFILES .............................................................................. 30

4.5.1 Application of Risk Management for Change ......................... 30 4.5.2 Risk Exposure.......................................................................... 31

4.6 SCOPES OF WORK (SOWS) — CONOPS, CAPACITY ANALYSIS, RESECTORISATION ......................................................................... 33

CHAPTER 5: PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION ................................................................ 34

5.1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................. 34

5.2 PROPOSED IMPLEMENTATION STRATEGY ............................................. 34

5.2.1 Objectives ............................................................................... 34 5.2.2 Approach ................................................................................ 35

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5.2.3 Inclusion of the Approach in the SOWs.................................. 35

5.3 PROJECT ORDER, RESOURCES AND TIMEFRAME .................................... 36

5.4 ESTIMATED RESOURCES AND COST ..................................................... 37

CHAPTER 6: METRICS & KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS ....................................... 39

6.1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................. 39

6.2 BACKGROUND .............................................................................. 40

6.3 CAPACITY DETERMINATION USING ANALYSIS METHODS .......................... 40

6.4 CALCULATING A METRIC USING DEDUCTIVE METHODS............................ 41

6.5 APPLICATION OF THE BRAZILIAN MODEL TO AN INDONESIAN SECTOR ......... 43

6.6 ADDITIONAL METRICS .................................................................... 45

6.7 TAXONOMY FOR PERFORMANCE MEASURES ........................................ 46

CHAPTER 7: CONCLUSION ....................................................................................... 48

7.1 NEED FOR THE PROJECTS ................................................................. 48

7.2 POTENTIAL DIFFICULTIES ................................................................. 48

7.3 POTENTIAL SUCCESS FACTORS FOR THE PROJECTS .................................. 49

ANNEXES ............................................................................................................... 50

ANNEXE 1: STRENGTHS, WEAKNESSES & THREATS ...................................... 50

ANNEXE 2: METHODOLOGY ................................................................... 55

ANNEXE 3: STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT PLAN........................................... 60

ANNEXE 4: AIRSPACE QUESTIONNAIRE ..................................................... 63

ANNEXE 5: MINUTES OF WORKSHOPS, AND FORMAL MEETINGS

AND PRESENTATIONS...................................................................... 64

REFERENCES .......................................................................................................... 76

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LIST OF TABLES

Table 1: Summary of Required Resources and Estimates of for the Proposed Projects .. x

Table 2: Strategic Airspace Approach to the Task ............................................................ 3

Table 3: Airports that AP II Operates .............................................................................. 10

Table 4: AP I Makassar Airports ...................................................................................... 13

Table 5: Jakarta FIR Sector Traffic for September 2011 .................................................. 18

Table 6: Key Indonesian Stakeholders ............................................................................ 20

Table 7: Australian Aid & Support Organisations working within the Indonesian ATM Framework ......................................................................................................... 21

Table 8: External Agencies (other than Australia) .......................................................... 22

Table 9: Indonesian ATM Context ................................................................................... 26

Table 10: Indonesian Aviation Capabilities ..................................................................... 27

Table 11: Potential Foreign Aid Characteristics & Effect on Projects ............................. 29

Table 12: Preliminary Qualitative Risk Assessment ........................................................ 31

Table 13: Project Prioritisation ....................................................................................... 36

Table 14: Performance Areas & Metrics ......................................................................... 46

Table 15: Stakeholder Management and Communication ............................................. 61

Table 16: Key Comments by Stakeholders ...................................................................... 65

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1: Proposed Project – Indicative Schedule ............................................................ xi

Figure 2: Relationship of Proposed Projects with ATM Masterplan ................................. 1

Figure 3: Indonesian FIR Boundaries ................................................................................. 6

Figure 4: Indonesian Aviation Agency Overview — Current Situation ............................. 7

Figure 5: Indonesian Aviation Agency Overview — Future (Post-Transition) ................... 8

Figure 6: Traffic Density Comparison ................................................................................ 9

Figure 7: Current Jakarta FIR ATC Sectorisation.............................................................. 11

Figure 8: Proposed Sectorisation — Jakarta FIR ............................................................. 11

Figure 9: Air Route Structure Jakarta FIR ........................................................................ 12

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Figure 10: Ujung Pandang — Current Sectorisation ....................................................... 14

Figure 11: Proposed Sectorisation for Ujung Pandang FIR ............................................. 14

Figure 12: ADSB Coverage for Indonesia ........................................................................ 16

Figure 13: VHF Coverage for Upper Airspace .................................................................. 16

Figure 14: Growth in Public Transport Movements ........................................................ 17

Figure 15: Stakeholder Assessment Grid ........................................................................ 24

Figure 16: Risk Assessment ............................................................................................. 32

Figure 17: Risk Profile ...................................................................................................... 33

Figure 18: Profile of Upper Semarang (US) Sector .......................................................... 43

Figure 19: CANSO Productivity Figures ........................................................................... 45

Figure 20: Original Work Plan and Schedule for Project 289 (Project 290 was similar) . 56

Figure 21: Project Schedule - Actual vs Baseline............................................................. 56

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ACRONYMS

AIP Aeronautical Information Publication

ANSP Air Navigation Services Provider

AP I Angkasa Pura – formerly Angkasa Pura 1 (Airport and ATM Authority Makassar) (NB: To avoid potential confusion, abbreviated as AP I in this report)

AP II Angkasa Pura 2 (Airport and ATM Authority Jakarta)

ATC Air Traffic Control

ATFM Air Traffic Flow Management

ATM Air Traffic Management

ATS Air Traffic Services

CGK Jakarta Soekarno-Hatta International Airport — IATA Code (refer also SHIA)

CNS Communication, Navigation and Surveillance

CNS/ATM Communications, Navigation, Surveillance/Air Traffic Management

CONOPS Concept of Operations

DGCA Directorate General Civil Aviation

EJAATS Emergency Jakarta Air Traffic Control System (refer also JAATS and MAATS)

FAA Federal Aviation Administration (USA)

FIR Flight Information Region

FTS Fast Time Simulation

HMI Human Machine Interface

ICAO International Civil Aviation Organization

JAATS Jakarta Air Traffic Control System (refer also EJAATS and MAATS)

JATC Jakarta Air Traffic Control

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MAATS Makassar Air Traffic Control System (refer also EJAATS and JAATS)

PBN Performance Based Navigation

PANS-OPS Procedures for Air Navigation Services - Aircraft Operations, ICAO Doc 8168

PANS-ATM Procedures for Air Navigation Services-Air Traffic Management, ICAO Doc 4444

RNAV Area Navigation

RNP Required Navigation Performance

RNP-AR APCH Required Navigation Performance Approach Authorization Required

SARP Standards and Recommended Practices

SHIA Soekarno-Hatta International Airport, Jakarta (refer also CGK, IATA Airport Code)

SMS Safety Management System

SRA Safety Risk Assessment

SOP Standard Operating Procedures

WGS-84 World Geodetic System,1984

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The volume of both domestic and international air traffic in the two Indonesian Flight Information Regions (FIRs — see Figure 3: Indonesian FIR Boundaries) continues to grow at an increasing rate; some of the routes in Indonesian airspace are already amongst the busiest in the world. The Indonesian aviation agencies, and others, are concerned that the present Air Traffic Management (ATM) arrangements are less than adequate to safely and efficiently handle this growing volume of traffic. The strain under the excessive demand is evident: from observation of air traffic controller (ATC) workload; from delays experienced within some current ATC sectors and at major airports; and from the excessive and increasing number of incidents (due to breakdown of aircraft separation) reported by the airlines.

Studies undertaken by Indonesia Infrastructure Initiative (IndII) and others, over the last few years, have identified the need to revise both the route structure and the sectorisation of the airspace. This is intended to help cope with growing demand (and changing traffic requirements) by providing increased airspace capacity; to modernise aspects of the airspace, which in itself should serve to improve capacity; and to more closely harmonise it with adjoining FIRs and regional airspace plans.

However, there are two missing pre-requisites for a proper and satisfactory revision of the route structure and ATC sectors. These are: a Concept of Operations (CONOPS) that will provide a policy level definition of the standards and practices to be used in Indonesian airspace; and accurate and detailed information concerning the current route and airspace demand and capacity. The first of these pre-requisites defines the rules to be used in re-designing the routes and sectors; the second provides data on two of the most important (in the context of design) parameters of the routes and the airspace — demand and capacity.

As a precursor to any full project activity and to provide an effective scope of work, a scoping study was undertaken by Strategic Airspace under contract to IndII. The scopes of work for each of the three proposed projects were to be delivered by two interdependent projects (IndII Activities #289 and #290). This report is the result of both of these projects.

The required deliverables included terms of reference and contextual information to support the Scope of Work for the development of:

Project : IndII Activity #289

i. A Concept of Operation (CONOPS) for the future Air Traffic Management (ATM) system for Indonesian airspace; and

ii. A Resectorisation Plan for Indonesian airspace, including a re-design of the underlying air route structure. As well as developing a complete new design for Indonesian airspace and route structure, together with a recommended plan for the implementation of that design, this project is intended to develop the

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capability for airspace change, including all the processes necessary for the aviation agencies to implement those changes.

Project: IndII Activity #290

iii. An Airspace Capacity Analysis project that is also intended to develop the capability for capacity analysis within the Indonesia aviation agencies. This project is intended to use Fast Time Simulation (FTS) and other metrics to measure the demand and capacity of current and proposed air routes and ATC sectors. The scoping study was therefore to include discussion of FTS and other demand and capacity metrics.

Because both projects had overlapping subject domains and had common stakeholders, the two projects were initiated within close proximity of each other and had compatible project durations. As Strategic Airspace was the contractor for both projects, the two projects were conducted as one overall project (but with key sub-projects to satisfy the contract requirements).

There is considerable urgency for all of these projects:

The formation of a new single air navigation service provider (ANSP), formally initiated towards the end of the scoping study, gives high importance and considerable urgency to the development of a Concept of Operations (CONOPS). This new entity will take on all the ATM functions, including ATC and airspace management, which are currently distributed across three organisations including the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA). The CONOPS is needed during the formation period of the new ANSP as it will describe, at a policy level, the operation of the new organisation’s core business; this can assist in defining the structure of the new business. As well, because the CONOPS is a pre-requisite for the Re-sectorisation project, some of the urgency for the CONOPS project derives from that project.

The imperatives for air route and airspace sector re-design are safety and efficiency. It is considered that the congestion of aircraft in some ATC sectors is already exceeding safe levels on a regular basis. The present route structure is out-dated; it doesn’t support current traffic patterns or demands, and demand is increasing at over 8% per annum. All segments of the aviation market are growing rapidly: domestic is growing exceedingly fast; the rate of international will increase once the ASEAN “Open Sky” becomes effective in 2013; and over-flights from/to numerous countries are increasing because the Asian economies are booming. The upper airspace has a mix of over-flights, between numerous FIRs including Australia, as well as an increasing number of domestic and international arrivals. Thus, Australian travellers are directly affected by the diminishing safety as demand and traffic complexity increases. For these reason the Re-sectorisation project is urgently needed. The existing Indonesian aviation agencies are aware that airspace changes are needed and they have independently initiated some airspace sectorisation and route re-structuring projects to attempt to tackle these

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issues. However, they lack the expertise, resources and / or tools to successfully complete these projects.

The Indonesian aviation agencies are aware of the airspace and air route congestion problems. They have grappled with the means of measuring capacity versus demand (that is, the level of congestion) as part of their re-sectorisation efforts. However, they do not have the tools (for example, Fast Time Simulation software) or expertise to accurately measure capacity and to model alternatives. This is the objective of the Capacity Analysis project: to provide the tools and expertise to develop the capability for capacity analysis within the local agencies.

One of the primary objectives of each of these projects is to develop capability so that the Indonesian agencies can undertake studies and projects of a similar nature in the future (they will need to do this because of changing technology and growing and changing demand patterns). Such ongoing improvement of airspace usage and ATM arrangements is a concern for ATM organisations worldwide. As part of the development of capability, areas such as airspace change management (including risk assessment and the preparation of safety cases) are included in the catalogue of skills that need to be developed and fostered. There are shortcomings in these areas at the moment and these processes are needed for the proposed IndII projects and for future Indonesian agency projects.

The need to include the development of capability within these projects also stems from the fact that some of the tasks involved in these projects are iterative; so to completely study all details (of capacity) or implement all changes (of air route or airspace) may take longer than is a sensible timeframe for these projects.. It also makes the most sense in terms of delivering longer-term benefit and return on future aid funded investments. The Scopes of Work (SOW) that have resulted from this consultancy (delivered as separate documents) incorporate the capability development objectives within each project scope.

There are many factors that may influence the conduct of these projects. Some of the more important are:

Changing Roles of the Aviation Agencies: the new single ANSP is one of the major ‘clients’ of these projects;

Changing ATM technology: the current JAATS air traffic control system used for the western half of Indonesian airspace will be replaced by a temporary system while a new system is sourced;

New navigation technology: the introduction of Performance-Based Navigation (PBN), which is in its infancy in Indonesia at the present time; this offers greater flexibility in route design and will give more harmony with regional plans, and it also provide compliance with global standardisation; and

Introduction of Air Traffic Flow Management (ATFM) and Collaborative Decision Making (CDM): this is seen as a means of coping with congestion problems but would be best done after attacking the underlying problem of the route structure and ATC sectorisation.

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The timeframes for the two ‘pre-requisite’ projects (CONOPS and Capacity Analysis) are about the same — between 4 to 6 months to complete each of them. As they are independent of each other they could run in parallel. The Concept of Operations project will also deliver early benefit during the formation of the new ANSP. The third project, Re-sectorisation, delivers the major benefits of safety and efficiency improvements and so it is desirable to commence this project as early as practicable. It is estimated that the Re-sectorisation project would require approximately 9 to 12 months. Hence all three projects, if run optimally, could be completed within an overall timeframe of 15-18 months.

A summary of the estimated timing and costs (including travel, accommodation and overheads) for the three projects is provided in the following table. The costs are based on IndII’s current standard rates.

Table 1: Summary of Required Resources and Estimates of for the Proposed Projects

Order Project Estimated Effort & Timeframe Budgetary Estimates

1 Concept of Operations

Effort

Consultants: 9 person mths

Plus additional time for:

Project Management by Consultant

A local consultant

Elapsed: 4-6 months

Consultants: ... AU $365,000

2 Capacity Analysis

Effort required is estimated to be 11 person months plus some time for a local consultant and project management.

The elapsed time for the project is estimated to be no less than 6 months.


Software Licence:AU $250,000

Training*: .......... AU $30,000 (by vendor, excluding travel costs)

3 Re-sectorisation Effort required is estimated to be 18 person months plus some time for a local consultant and project management.

The elapsed time for the project is estimated to be no less than 9-12 months;


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Figure 1: Proposed Project – Indicative Schedule

INDONESIAN AIRSPACE SECTORISATION, CONOPS & CAPACITY STUDIES - Final Report

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CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION


The IndII-sponsored Indonesian Air Traffic Management Master Plan was completed in 2011. Following on from this, the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) selected several projects indentified in the Masterplan as having high importance and urgency. These projects were: the development of a policy level Concept of Operations; a review of ATC Sectorisation to improve safety and efficiency; and the analysis the airspace capacity including implementation of Fast Time Simulation tools and metrics.

Figure 2: Relationship of Proposed Projects with ATM Masterplan

Subsequently, IndII initiated two projects (IndII Activity #289 and Activity #290) to develop Scopes of Work for future projects intended to address these identified needs. These projects are referred to in this report as the Scoping Study and the projects they provide the scope for are referred to as the Proposed Projects.

Strategic Airspace successfully tendered for both projects that make up the Scoping Study. Because both the study team and the subject domains for the two Scoping projects overlap, in some contexts within this report the two projects are considered and referred to as one single project.

This report includes:

various findings of the project team, as follows;

o an assessment of the underlying needs for, and expected benefits of, the Proposed Projects;

o an assessment of stakeholders perceptions of the need for the Proposed Projects;

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SECTORISATION, CONOPS & CAPACITY STUDIES - Final Report

o the attitudes of the primary stakeholders (those who will be involved in some substantial way with Proposed Projects) towards the Proposed Projects;

o the potential risks associated with each of the Proposed Projects;

o the rationale for the way the Scopes of Work have been framed;

other background information that may be useful to the consultants undertaking the Proposed Projects; and

a summary of how the Scoping Study was conducted.

The report also includes a discussion on Metrics and Performance Indicators for airspace and ATM system performance that might be used to assess the outcomes of capacity analysis, re-sectorisation and revision of the route structure. This was called for in the briefs for each of the Scoping Studies.

1.1 RELATIONSHIPS OF PROPOSED PROJECTS

Each of the Proposed Projects, and the relationship between them, is briefly summarised below:

Revision of the Route Structure and ATC Sectorisation — this project is necessary to ensure safety and improve efficiency as demand increases. This project will effectively initiate the modernization of Indonesian airspace and Air Traffic Management. This project includes the re-design of all airspace and the route structure for both FIRs and developing the procedures for the implementation of the results. The timeframe for the implementation will be longer than lifetime of the proposed IndII-sponsored project.

This Proposed Project is to be supported by the other two Proposed Projects in the following ways:

o The scientific determination of both current and future capacity and demand is a necessary decision support tool for the envisaged route re-structure and re-sectorisation. The capability to effectively use this decision support tool is to be developed by Capacity Analysis project;

o Changes to both the route structure and sectorisation should take place within the framework of commonly accepted policies and standards that are harmonised with adjacent FIRs. The common policies and standards should be defined in a Concept of Operations.

Both these supporting projects are outlined below.

Development of a Concept of Operations for Air Traffic Management.

There are many different ATM development plans favoured by different sections of each of the aviation agencies. These have been inconsistent in the past leading to the development of incompatible systems. Over the long term this compromises


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safety and diminishes efficiency. The inconsistencies develop because decisions have been made without prior agreement between agencies on objectives, policies and standards between agencies. The existence of a Concept of Operations (referred to as CONOPS) would help to integrate plans by providing a common or shared vision for the future ATM system and a framework within which the consistency of decision making is assured.

An additional imperative and a cause of considerable urgency for this project is the formation of the new single ANSP to manage ATM in both FIRs; the Concept of Operations will assist in defining operational concepts for the new ANSP. Hence, in one sense, the new single ANSP is the primary client for this Proposed Project.

Development of Capacity Analysis Capability.

The capability to scientifically analyse demand and capacity of the route structure and ATC sectorisation (with respect to the current and future operations, fleet capability and schedules) will help to identify and prioritise current problems in the route structure and support planning for route changes and re-sectorisation. It will also be needed to support planning for terminal area and airport operation improvements. The need for Capacity Analysis will be ongoing throughout the Re-sectorisation project and for future projects. Therefore the primary objective of this project is to develop the capability for Capacity Analysis within the Indonesian aviation agencies through the transfer of technology (software), expertise and knowledge.

1.2 SCOPING STUDY OBJECTIVES

This Scoping Study set out to achieve the objectives shown in the following table.

Table 2: Strategic Airspace Approach to the Task

Our Aim Achieved? Where

Define the roles of each of the aviation agencies in the Indonesian environment and the relationships between them;

Yes Chapter 2 Context

Identify the stakeholders at various levels (executive and operational) within the pertinent organisations that will be required for development of each of the projects.

Yes Annexe 3 Stakeholder Engagement Plan

Define the timescale for the CONOPS, the Resectorisation project and the Capacity Analysis project.

Yes Chapter 5 Project Implementation

Describe the relationships between the CONOPS, Resectorisation and Capacity studies.

Yes Chapter 1 Introduction and

Chapter 5 Project



Our Aim Achieved? Where

Implementation

Refer to other CONOPS / Resectorisation Plans and relevant standards for any required comparisons, compatibility and (potentially) gap analysis. For example reference should be made to the ICAO Global ATM Operational Concept.

Yes Various

Refer to national and international standards as appropriate.

Yes Various

Define the expected contents of the CONOPS document.

Yes CONOPS SoW

Define the expected outcomes of Re-sectorisation project.

Yes Resectorisation SoW

Define the expected outcomes of Capacity Analysis project.

Yes Capacity Analysis SoW

Define the Airspace Performance Metrics expected to be applied for the Resectorisation project.

Yes Chapter 6 Metrics & Key Performance Indicators

Define the expected update cycle of the outputs from both projects.

Yes Various

Give an outline of the types of personnel (in terms of knowledge, skills and experience) required for each of the projects.


Give an estimate of the expected time for completion of each of the projects.


Provide an indication of the budget for each of the projects.


Describe the potential benefits of each of the projects. Yes Various

Describe any perceived risks inherent in each of the projects.

Yes 4.5 Risk Profiles

ANNEXE 1: Strengths,

Weaknesses & Threats


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CHAPTER 2: CONTEXT

CHAPTER 2: CONTEXT

Globalisation is not only a driver for economic growth and development: it also affects the implementation of the technical standards in many industries, including aviation. Thus, there is a requirement to contribute and comply with international standards — primarily, ICAO Standards and Recommended Practices (SARPs).

While it is necessary for individual States to comply with globally accepted aviation standards and to integrate with a global Air Traffic Management (ATM) framework, it is essential that this task is undertaken in a way that recognises the unique geo political factors of the region as well as national and organisational cultures.

The following contextual information is provided as background for any assessment of work required to complete a review and implementation of airspace changes, and for the introduction and implementation of a Concept of Operations.

The Republic of Indonesia has a thriving economy with a rapidly expanding aviation sector. In terms of air traffic, it has a large and growing domestic fleet and increasing international traffic including a large number of overflying aircraft. Its geographic nature, being the world’s largest archipelago, and its location at the crossroads between south-east Asia and Oceania provide a challenging environment for Air Traffic Management.

2.1 GEOGRAPHY

The IndII-sponsored “Open Sky — Stage 2”1 report provides the following succinct description of the Indonesian geographic archipelago:

Indonesia is the biggest archipelago in the world consisting of some 18,000 islands over an area of 5,110 km from east to west and 1,800 km from north to south. Its unique geographical situation, lack of surface infrastructure, large and growing population and ongoing economic prosperity continues to increase the country’s propensity to fly, making it one of the fastest-growing countries in terms of air traffic demand in the world.

The Indonesian airspace is split into two Flight Information Regions (FIRs), as depicted in Figure 3 (page 10). The (western) Jakarta FIR is managed from the Jakarta ATC Centre, and the (eastern) Ujung Pandang FIR is managed an ATC centre in Makassar. The figure provides an overview of the current route structure in the two (2) FIRs and

1http://www.indii.co.id/upload_file/201205091605550.National%20Strategy%20for%20the%20Implement

ation%20of%20ASEAN%20Open%20Sky%20Policy%20Stage%202%20–%20Final%20Report.pdf

http://www.indii.co.id/upload_file/201205091605550.National%20Strategy%20for%20the%20Implementation%20of%20ASEAN%20Open%20Sky%20Policy%20Stage%202%20–%20Final%20Report.pdf

http://www.indii.co.id/upload_file/201205091605550.National%20Strategy%20for%20the%20Implementation%20of%20ASEAN%20Open%20Sky%20Policy%20Stage%202%20–%20Final%20Report.pdf



also illustrates the extent of over-flight routes through the Indonesian airspace to/from the 10 adjacent FIRs, which are managed by other States.

Figure 3: Indonesian FIR Boundaries

Source: DGCA

2.2 POLITICAL AND ORGANISATIONAL

Air Traffic Management is currently provided by three primary agencies supported by a separate training college. The primary delivery of services is undertaken by two state-owned enterprises and an element of the Directorate General of Civil Aviation regulated from within the Ministry of Transport (MOT) by the Director General of Civil Aviation (DGCA).

The state-owned enterprises are Angkasa Pura (formerly Angkasa Pura I, AP I), which provides services within the Ujung Pandang FIR from Makassar (with head office in Jakarta); and Angkasa Pura II, which provides services within the Jakarta FIR (head office at Soekarno-Hatta International Airport). Both organisations manage not only the airspace but also own and operate all services at the major aerodromes within their respective FIRs.

The Boards of Directors of both AP I and AP II are responsible to the owner through the Minster of State Owned Enterprises (MSOE). The provision of Air Traffic Management


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CHAPTER 2: CONTEXT

is not the primary business of the Angkasa Pura: the primary business is managing the major airports

The Sanskrit term “Angkasa Pura” translates literally into English “sky city” or airport. Because this of the issues and problems of demand and capacity are sometimes seen as issues relating to the “airports”, not “aerodromes” or “airspace”.

Although the DGCA is the State regulator, it is not an entirely independent regulator because it provides a variety of services including: operation of some airports (some of which it also owns); air traffic services at many aerodromes that are not serviced by AP I or AP II; and Aeronautical Information Services.

Figure 4: Indonesian Aviation Agency Overview — Current Situation

In addition to the above, there are an unknown (relatively small) number of private services associated with large mining sites. These services are not, at present, subject to any regulatory oversight; they probably only consist of some form of flight following and SAR alerting service.

As there is an international commitment by Indonesia to the reduction of carbon emissions the Ministry of Environment is both interested and involved in aerodrome and airspace management.

The Military have responsibility for aerodromes and restricted airspace for military training and other operational purposes. There is little or no history of cooperation with the civil agencies in regard to airspace usage or management.



In September 2012, the President signed Law 22, 2012 which created a new Air Navigation Service Provider (ANSP) that will take-over all ATM functions currently performed by AP I, AP II and DGCA. AP I and AP II will remain as airport operators, and DGCA will retain its regulatory functions.

This provision of a single regulator that is decoupled from service provision is a recommendation of the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) and is the model used by the vast majority of ICAO Contracting States

The complete transfer of ATS to the new organisation is planned to take two years. Following this transfer, AP I and AP II will continue to operate as airport management organisations. Whilst the transition process and transfer of functions may not provide the ideal environment for conducting the Proposed Projects completion of the Proposed Projects as early as possible will provide better information and a more certain basis for tasks for the new ANSP.

Figure 5: Indonesian Aviation Agency Overview — Future (Post-Transition)

2.3 AIR TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT

The characteristics ATM in of each the FIRs are briefly described below.

2.3.1 Characteristics Common To Both FIRs

The current air route structure has not been updated for many years and is based on historical traffic requirements and design concepts. Because of this it is not able to effectively or efficiently support current traffic requirements. The route structure is


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CHAPTER 2: CONTEXT

mostly based upon conventional navigation using ground based navaids as the start and end points of routes.

Jakarta terminal area acts as hub for most domestic airline traffic. Most of the airspace congestion problems exist with 200NM of Jakarta as this is one of the main hubs. This congestion is not surprising as four of the world’s 21 busiest air routes, terminate at Jakarta. Soekarno-Hatta is not in the top thirty airports in terms of movements but it is the ninth busiest in the world by passengers per annum. The relative size of traffic densities for city pairs linked with Jakarta is illustrated in Figure 6 below (the diagram was provided by Jakarta Area Control Centre).

There is a Performance Based Navigation (PBN) plan but it is only in the very early stages of implementation. The route structure might be less congested with the use of more PBN routes because of the flexibility and reduced separation standards it offers; however, at present there are only a few RNAV high level routes for over-flights, some RNAV SIDs and STARs and some RNP and RNP-AR approaches (recently published, but not yet implemented).

The international air routes, in some cases, share the underlying domestic structure. There are hot spots in terms of traffic delays and conflict points within the upper airspace. The trend to more congested upper airspace will continue with the growth in traffic unless the route structure is revised. The route structure is inhibited by military restricted airspace which is rarely shared with civil traffic. The air route structure for both the Jakarta and Makassar FIRs is published in the Indonesian AIP.

The busiest ATC sectors are around Jakarta as the busiest routes terminate there. Table 5 Jakarta FIR Sector Traffic for September 2011 provides an example of traffic movements within the current sectorisation for Jakarta FIR.

Figure 6: Traffic Density Comparison

Source: ‘Jakarta Airspace Management and Flow Management Proposal’ 2012, AP II



2.3.2 Air Traffic Management - Jakarta FIR

AP II, based at Soekarno-Hatta International Airport (SHIA), provides ATM within the Jakarta FIR controlling both domestic and international traffic including over-flights. The Jakarta Air Traffic Control (JATC) is responsible for providing Air Traffic Control services within seven sectors as shown in Table 3 below and is also responsible for all aerodrome control functions at SHIA. AP II is also responsible for the management of, and providing ATS for, 11 other airports within the Jakarta FIR. These airports are listed in the table below.

Table 3: Airports that AP II Operates

Airport Name Airport Location

SOEKARNO-HATTA JAKARTA (CGK)

Polonia MEDAN (MDN)

Sultan Syarif Kasim II PEKANBARU (PKU)

Supadio PONTIANAK

Minangkabau PADANG (MKB)

Sultan Mahmud Badaruddin II PALEMBANG (PLB)

Husein Sastranegara BANDUNG (BND)

Halim Perdanakusuma JAKARTA

Sultan Taha JAMBI (JMB)

Sultan Iskandar Muda BAND ACEH (SIM)

Raja Haji Fisabilillah T TANJUNGPINANG (TJP)

Amir Depati L nut PANGKA


11

CHAPTER 2: CONTEXT

Figure 7: Current Jakarta FIR ATC Sectorisation

Source: AP II

Figure 8: Proposed Sectorisation — Jakarta FIR

Source: AP II



Figure 8 above shows AP II’s plan for a revision of the sectorisation of the Jakarta FIR. This plan has been developed because of concerns about safety and efficiency. The proposed sectorisation sub-divides some of the busiest current sectors in an attempt to reduce ATC workload to more acceptable and safer levels. Modelling based on international experience is likely to show an increase in workload.

The proposed changes do not include any changes to the underlying route structure. While AP II has done considerable work on the proposed sector changes they are not yet approved by DGCA because there are insufficient trained controllers to man the proposed 11 sectors (there are currently 7). As well, there are insufficient workstations with the current JAATS system to safely support the proposal; this will be rectified when the EJAATS system becomes operational. The assertion that workload would be decreased and safety increased is not supported by any FTS capacity analysis. Further, a Safety Case has not yet been prepared for the proposed changes.

Figure 9 below provides an illustration of the Jakarta FIR air routes for both domestic and for international flights.

Figure 9: Air Route Structure Jakarta FIR

Source: AP II


13

CHAPTER 2: CONTEXT

2.3.3 Air Traffic Management — Ujung Pandang FIR

Angkasa Pura (AP 1), based at Bandara Hasanuddin International Airport (BHIA), in the City of Makassar, provides ATM within the Ujung Pandang FIR controlling both domestic and international traffic including over-flights. It controls both domestic and international traffic within and transiting the FIR except for a small low level portion released to Timor Leste. The Makassar Air Traffic Control Centre also provides all aerodrome control functions at BHIA. AP I is also responsible for the management, including ATS, of 12 other airports within the Ujung Pandang FIR. These airports are listed in the table below.

Table 4: AP I Makassar Airports

Airport Name Airport Location

Bandara Ngurah Rai Denpasar (DPS)

Bandara Juanda Surabaya (SUB)

Bandara Hasanuddin Makassar (MKS)

Bandara Sepinggan Balikpapan

Bandara Frans Kaisiepo Biak

Bandara Sam Ratulangi Manado (MDO)

Bandara Syamsudin Noor Banjarmasin

Bandara Ahmad Yani Semarang (SMG)

Bandara Adisutjipto Yogyakarta (JOG)

Bandara Adisumarmo Surakarta

Bandara Selaparang Mataram

Bandara Pattimura Ambon

Bandara El Tari Kupang

The Makassar Air Traffic Control is responsible for the airspace shown below. Air Traffic Control services are provided from within five sectors.



Figure 10: Ujung Pandang — Current Sectorisation

Source: AP I

Due to increases in traffic and the need to address conflict areas that are generating ATC incidents, there is a proposal to resectorise the airspace, sub-dividing the busiest sectors, and create two additional sectors. The status of this project was not established during the scoping study. The proposed new sectorisation is shown in Figure 11 below.

Figure 11: Proposed Sectorisation for Ujung Pandang FIR

Source: AP I


15

CHAPTER 2: CONTEXT

2.4 COMMUNICATION, NAVIGATION AND SURVEILLANCE (CNS)

The Jakarta Air ATC System (JAATS) consists of flight data and radar data processing, voice communications, and aeronautical information systems. The systems are old and are due for replacement; some of the ATC workstations are unserviceable. An “emergency” system called EJAATS is under construction and should be commissioned in November 2012 to ensure safe continuity of service whilst a more comprehensive system replacement is acquired. This interim system will be more capable than the present system; utilising flight and surveillance data to better advantage. For example, the current system is not able to simultaneously process ADS-B data with the radar data; this will be resolved with EJAATS.

The Makassar Air Traffic Control System (MAATS) is a Thales flight data and surveillance data processing and display system. It is much newer that the JAATS and is able to swap data with The Australian Advanced Air Traffic Control System (TAAATS); however, it does not interface as well with the current JAATS system. This gap in capability should be addressed when the new EJAATS system becomes operational. This will alleviate some of the current coordination issues between Jakarta FIR and Ujung Pandang FIR.

The route structure is based on ground based navigation; satellite based navigation is only utilised (in the route structure) for some over-flights. PBN is only just being introduced with some RNAV SIDs and STARs recently introduced at CGK, a few RNP APCH approaches and some operator specific RNP-AR approaches at Manado and Ambon.

There is electronic surveillance data servicing all IFR flight operations except those in the Oceanic Airspace to the south and some areas over Papua (Figure 12 below indicates the extent of ADSB Coverage for Indonesia; a radar coverage diagram was not available for publication.) There are some issues with the use of this data; its quality is questionable (availability and accuracy) and so for some of the busier routes procedural separation standards are used despite the fact that radar coverage that is available. The EJAATS commissioning should address some of these issues in the Jakarta FIR, but may still be compromised subject to the extent of the availability and accuracy of data).



Figure 12: ADSB Coverage for Indonesia

Source: PBN Implementation and CNS Infrastructure, 2010, DGCA

There is almost complete VHF radio coverage of the major air routes. There are some exceptions to this including some areas in the east, some oceanic airspace, and some areas of Papua. Figure 13 below is sourced from the ATM Master plan and shows the coverage at or above FL245. There are some planned extensions to VHF communications.

Figure 13: VHF Coverage for Upper Airspace

Source: ATM Master Plan, Figure 22, IndII


17

CHAPTER 2: CONTEXT

2.5 AVIATION ACTIVITY

Aviation in Indonesia is already substantial and is growing at an annual rate of 8.4%. There are over 16 domestic airlines and a significant number of international operators operating into, and overflying, Indonesia. There is also a growing number of general and charter movements with activities such as aviation training and fly-in / fly-out for mining.

A more comprehensive analysis of traffic and passenger numbers can be seen in the “Open Sky” report, sponsored by IndII in 2011 and available on the IndII web site (http://www.indii.co.id/). A graph from that report showing the forecast growth of movements is shown in Figure 14.

Figure 14: Growth in Public Transport Movements

Source: IndII Open Sky Policy Stage 2 – Final Report (Figure 86)

Currently some city pairs, and the surrounding ATC sectors, are overloaded for some parts of the day.

As Jakarta acts as a hub for most domestic traffic, there are significant delays for departures and arrivals with demand far exceeding both the airspace and ATC capacity. Four of the top 21 busiest routes worldwide (in 2011) terminate at Jakarta2. These routes are: Jakarta-Singapore (10th busiest); Jakarta-Denpasar (12th busiest); Jakarta-Surabaya (19th busiest) and Jakarta-Medan (21st busiest).

2 Source: Centre for Aviation - http://centreforaviation.com/analysis/the-worlds-top-ten-routes-are-in-asia-58178

http://centreforaviation.com/analysis/the-worlds-top-ten-routes-are-in-asia-58178

http://centreforaviation.com/analysis/the-worlds-top-ten-routes-are-in-asia-58178



Table 5: Jakarta FIR Sector Traffic for September 2011

Meaning: “Rata-Rata per Hari” — Average Movements Per Day

Source: ‘Jakarta Airspace Management and Flow Management Proposal’ 2012, AP II

A more efficient air route structure and consequent ATC sectorisation are perceived to be urgently required to cope with the growing demand. Other changes including improved ATC procedures and new systems are also needed to assist the ATM system to handle the growth in demand.


19

CHAPTER 3: STAKEHOLDERS


3.1 INTRODUCTION

The description of methodology used in the scoping study (see 0) provides an outline of the workshops conducted and presentations delivered. Additionally, individual and group meetings were held with staff from DGCA, AP I and AP II and the airlines. The attendees of all workshops, presentations and stakeholder meetings are recorded in the stakeholder management spreadsheet. This contains the details of each stakeholder involved in the study. The approach to stakeholders is discussed below.

3.2 OVERVIEW OF STAKEHOLDER MANAGEMENT

Stakeholder management involves not only the planning of objectives, having a clear engagement strategy and identifying stakeholders but also listening to all stakeholder concerns and influencing key stakeholders to ensure success of the proposed project.

To fulfil the requirements of this scoping project and to begin the process of IndII working with stakeholders for the proposed projects the objectives were as follows:

1. To identify key stakeholders within DGCA, service providers, and critical users of airspace; as well as to use their knowledge to identify risks, issues, and requirements in airspace management and airspace capacity;

2. To assess attitude or orientation of the key stakeholders towards the need for the projects and to attempt to influence them towards a positive position; and

3. To obtain viewpoints from the prospective participants in the projects as to how the implementation of the projects might be undertaken to ensure their success and to obtain maximum, and continuing, benefit for Indonesian aviation.

The last objective is critical to the success of the projects. Some previous projects have not delivered successful outcomes from the point of view of the stakeholders in DGCA and the ANSPs. This point was made by all the managers in the Directorate of Air Navigation. Some of the early reluctance on the part of some stakeholders to participate in the scoping study could be attributed to what are seen as failed projects.

For the purposes of this scoping study, key stakeholders are those people who have direct influence upon, or will be directly affected by, the changes in airspace and capacity management and have an interest in the development of a CONOPS. The following classes of stakeholders are considered to be key stakeholder groups.

1. Users of ATM services: key staff of the major airlines and representatives of airline associations;

2. Air Navigation Service Providers (ANSPs): In this case key staff within AP I and AP II. Consideration also needs to be given to the fact that at the present time DGCA



provides some Air Navigation services and, although only an embryo at the moment, the new single ANSP;

3. DGCA as the Regulator: The primary stakeholder is the Directorate of Air Navigation of DGCA but others, such as Air Transport, Airports and Airworthiness, have an interest (in particular, in the CONOPS project). Note that Air Transport Division was notified of the scoping projects although it was not directly invited;

4. Staff Associations: Including the representatives of both Air Traffic Service Officers and Pilots associations; and

5. External (Foreign) Agencies & Industry Bodies: This includes the ICAO, the Regulatory and ANSP agencies of adjacent FIRs and international aviation organisations such as IATA.

3.3 KEY INDONESIAN STAKEHOLDER GROUPS

The key stakeholders are common to both projects (#289 and #290). The full details of all stakeholders who participated in the scoping study are provided within Attachment 2. A summary of the key stakeholders and their attitudes to these projects is provided below.

Table 6: Key Indonesian Stakeholders

Interest Organisation Orientation Remarks

Regulator DGCA Positive Very positive response from some in DGCA with clear recognition of the need for route and sector changes and the need for capacity analysis capability from some in DGCA. Not everybody understands the need for change for both efficiency and safety — possibly this anomaly is due to internal politics.

ANSP AP II Positive Expressed concern regarding current workload, traffic complexities and densities and requires assistance in demand and capacity measurement and management. Good attendance and enthusiasm at workshops and meetings but this enthusiasm diminished later in the project. Hoping for improvements from the implementation of Flow Management.

AP I Positive Despite repeated invitations, AP I did not participate much in the early part of the assessment. Later they started to show keen interest and have factored the proposed projects into their forward planning. They have similar needs to AP II.

New ANSP Unknown The major client of the Proposed Projects, however, unknown structure and attitudes as only working


21


Interest Organisation Orientation Remarks

groups to set up organisation exist at the time of writing. The new ANSP may not have sufficient operational staff in the early stages of the Proposed Projects to influence the projects.

Users Lion Air Positive Will cooperate with any changes that make it simpler and reduce airborne delays.

Garuda Positive Concerned about the traffic densities and the consequent safety implications. Very concerned that the number of incidents is increasing year on year. They expressed a willingness to cooperate with any changes that address these issues.

Staff Representatives

IATCA Positive ATC staff want to have more tools to be able to measure and control capacity to support re-sectorisation

INACA The airline industry supports any change that will simplify air routes and provide additional capacity

FPI Pilots association supports and wants to see that ATC staff have the appropriate training on any new equipment or procedure.

3.4 EXTERNAL ATM AND FOREIGN AGENCIES

The Australian Government involvement in aviation infrastructure and safety initiatives in the Republic of Indonesia is quite clear and all agencies cooperate to ensure that there is no overlap and the agencies work well together.

There is interaction between Airservices Australia and AP I and AP II on operational matters concerning the interaction between Australian and Indonesian FIRs. This is outlined in Table 7 below. The degree of interaction with ANSPs from other adjacent FIRs is unclear.

Table 7: Australian Aid & Support Organisations working within the Indonesian ATM Framework

“Sponsoring” Organisation “Participant” Organisation Remarks

INDII — Indonesia Infrastructure Initiative.

(AusAID Project — managed by SMEC)

Selected by competitive tender from within a preregistered pool of Companies and Consultants

To promote economic growth by working with the Government of Indonesia to enhance infrastructure policy, planning and investment. This includes aviation infrastructure.



“Sponsoring” Organisation “Participant” Organisation Remarks

ITSAP — Indonesia Transport Safety Assistance Package

Managed by The Department of Infrastructure and Transport.

Civil Aviation Safety Authority (CASA)

Airservices Australia

AMSA

ATSB

Other Australian Consultants and companies employed through the above agencies.

ITSAP provides technical and training assistance to support Indonesia in addressing its aviation, maritime and road transport safety challenges.

Airservices Australia Airservices Australia Airservices works directly with AP I and AP II on operational matters concerning the interface between Australian and Indonesian FIRs.

The extent of the involvement of non-Australian foreign agencies has been difficult to determine because of the lack of cooperation from some agencies. There is a strong chance of overlap and duplication of projects with the non-Australian foreign agencies. The proposed Concept of Operations, once completed and approved by the DGCA, would be one effective mitigation against the risk projects from “competing” aid agencies providing conflicting outcomes.

The following table provides an assessment of the known involvement of external agencies. The ICAO involvement is well understood as current ICAO projects running on site are well understood and integrated into the activities of both IndII and ITSAP.

Table 8: External Agencies (other than Australia)

Entity Organisation Orientation

Government of Japan JICA Neutral

Historically secretive and unwilling to integrate activities

United States of America (Government & Commercial)

FAA

IASA (under FAA)

TSA

NTSB

Boeing

Jeppesen

Positive

Supportive with keen interest by FAA regarding Safety Management.

Commercial orientation by vendors


23


Entity Organisation Orientation

France (Government & Commercial)

DGAC

Thales

Airbus

Neutral

Support for Commercial vendors

People’s Republic of China Unknown but understood to be active in transport sector

Government of Sweden LFV Neutral

Commercial orientation. No obvious signs of cooperation with other agencies

Government of the Netherlands LVNL

NLR

Unknown

Provides support to CURUG Indonesian aviation training college.

ICAO Regional Office

COSCAP

TCB (onsite project)

Positive

Engaged with ITSAP and IndII activities.

IATA Local representative

Positive

Interest in safety and efficiency

Adjacent State FIRs Australia

Singapore

Malaysia

Papua New Guinea

Philippines United States India Sri Lanka

Unknown (Except Australia and USA)

Operational level engagement with AP I / APII and DGCA.

3.5 STAKEHOLDER ASSESSMENT

The stakeholder assessment, given in the following diagram (Figure 15), takes into account the strength of support or otherwise (orientation) towards the proposed projects and the levels of influence they have on the success (Criticality to Success) of the proposed projects. For the purposes of this report, the organisations and / or staff identified in paragraph 3.3 (Key Indonesian Stakeholder Groups) and the Australian Government sponsored organisations identified in paragraph 3.4 (External ATM and



Foreign Agencies — Table 8) are considered to be key stakeholders and able to impact the success of the prospective projects. The rationale for including the Australian stakeholders can be found in the level of risk exposure the Australian Government may be exposed to given any adverse safety outcomes within Indonesian airspace.

Figure 15: Stakeholder Assessment Grid

Criticality to Success

Other

Foreign

IATA/

ICAOUS/FAA

StaffAirlines

ANSP

Regulator

IndII/ITSAP

Resistant

Neutral

SUPPORTIVE

Low Medium HIGH


25

CHAPTER 4: KEY FINDINGS


4.1 INTRODUCTION

This chapter summarises the key findings of the project team. The summary is presented in a number of tables that outline the characteristics of several dimensions of the environment within which the Proposed Projects will be undertaken. The assessment is simply the potential effect on the projects of each particular characteristic. Comments are also made about particular aspects of the characteristic: some are positive and some negative. Generally these comments are subjective opinions formed during workshops or discussions with various stakeholders.

The dimensions explored in the following sections are:

The general context of ATM in Indonesia at the present time. This mostly demonstrates the need for the proposed projects but also covers the possible complexity involved because of the many changes taking place in the aviation sector at present;

The capabilities of the Indonesian agencies. To affect the changes that are necessary to complete the requirements of the Proposed Projects; and

The context of undertaking these projects as aid funded projects. This partly discusses some impressions of difficulties encountered during the Scoping Project where it is considered these may affect the conduct of the Proposed Projects.

4.2 ASSESSMENT OF INDONESIAN ATM CONTEXT

There is a lot of activity in ATM in Indonesia at the present time. The most important single factor that will affect the proposed Projects is the formation of the single ANSP to take over all ATM functions in Indonesia. There is the opportunity to provide substantial assistance to Indonesian aviation through the CONOPS project as an operational concept is urgently needed to assist in the orderly formation of the new organisation. Discussions with advisors to the implementation of the ANSP have confirmed the absence of a CONOPS and the urgent requirement for one in this context.

Also of significance for the immediate future is the concern of inadequate safety levels in some Indonesian airspace as traffic levels are exceeding the safe capacity of the existing ATM arrangements in some locations. There are a variety of factors contributing to this but some that can be improved include the airspace and route structure as they are configured at the present time. This safety aspect and the associated efficiency improvements is the subject of two of the Proposed Projects.

Other projects being undertaken locally may have some effect on the Proposed Projects.



Table 9: Indonesian ATM Context

Characteristic Effect Remarks

Embryo single ANSP Major opportunity but considerable uncertainty

Opportunity to provide substantial benefit to Indonesian aviation;

New ANSP is major (silent at present) stakeholder with no operational functions for some time;

Possibly some competition between sections of AP I, AP II and DGCA.

Outdated airspace and route structure

Driver for Capacity Analysis and Re-sectorisation Projects

In some sectors safe capacity exceeded on a regular basis — this needs urgent attention

Route structure inappropriate for current traffic demands

Route structure uses conventional navigation

Significant inefficiencies — manifested as delays both on the ground and in the air — have significant cost and environmental effects

Increasing air traffic increasing demand for scarce airspace

Current congestion problems will get worse further diminishing safety and efficiency

Estimated current 8% annual increase in aviation sector;

Increasing workload on ATCO;

increasing demand for pilots to work extended hours;

ASEAN “Open Skys” policy (starting in 2013) will introduce more carriers

Major technology changes pending

CONOPS needed to ensure suitability and uniformity; capability could affect Re-sectorisation

Change from JAATS to eJAATs (emergency-JAATS) until new JAATS replacement is sourced and commissioned. New JAATS should be sourced using CONOPS requirements;

ATFM and CDM under investigation (separately) by both AP I and AP II — seen as partial solution to airspace congestion problems;

PBN only in the earliest stages of implementation — still many regulatory and operational requirements to be satisfied;

ADS-B ground stations in place but aircraft fitment not yet mandated;


27



Limited experience in some areas for vital functions to implement changes

Need to develop capability including procedures for development, approval and implementation of changes

Very little or no experience the development of safety cases and risk assessment for ATM changes;

No experience in capacity analysis using FTS or other metrics;

Limited experience in change management generally;

Limited or no experience in route structure changes;

Limited experience with the implementation and regulation of PBN;

Disparate functions and roles across all three primary aviation agencies

Possible difficulty getting agreement form stakeholders

Mitigated by formation of new ANSP

4.3 ASSESSMENT OF INDONESIAN AGENCIES CAPABILITIES

The Indonesian aviation agencies have some appropriate resources to attend to the proposed changes, however, they are generally only available for such projects if they work extra overtime. In some areas, however, they lack the expertise, experience and tools needed to undertake the Proposed Projects. As well, with so much change taking place at the present time resources are be stretched.

The factors outlined in the following table could or will have some effect upon the Proposed Projects.

Table 10: Indonesian Aviation Capabilities


Significant technical competence within agencies

Positive benefit if it can be harnessed and utilised in the Proposed Projects

Experience and expertise in ATM can be utilised by proposed projects. It is envisaged that embedding staff in the project team will provide project resources, foster ownership by local agencies and allow the projects to continue beyond the timeframe (and funding) of the Proposed Projects.

Some of the Proposed Projects offer the potential for staff to extend expertise and experience into valuable new areas and enhance their CVs. This is a very positive selling point for the Capacity Analysis project and, to a slightly lesser extent, the Re-sectorisation project.




Significant understanding of the need for airspace change

Driver for Proposed Projects

There is an appreciation of the urgent need to attend to re-sectorisation for safety reasons –particularly from pilots (they feel their own and their passengers lives are at risk) and ATC (their clients are at risk as well as their careers). Efficiency is also a lesser and mostly corporate consideration.

Existing projects for re-sectorisation are evidence of this understanding. There is also an understanding that the route structure needs updating including introducing PBN.

These projects have been undertaken by operational staff in their spare/extra time — which probably means they are more protective of these projects. After enthusiastically presenting their proposed re-sectorisation, AP II were reluctant to have further discussions.

It is generally recognised that capacity modelling is needed to provide a scientific basis for both route changes and re-sectorisation.

Lesser interest for and understanding of the need for CONOPS

Potential impediment to CONOPS

Because the benefit was seen to be longer term.

Changed attitude because of the formation of the new single ANSP. Now there is a very immediate need for this project And an urgency to prepare a CONOPS to help organise the business activities of the new ANSP

Lack of understanding of and experience with risk and safety management as well as change management

Potential impediment to Re-sectorisation project

Existing re-sectorisation plans are not supported by a safety case or risk assessment. This is part of the reason they have not been approved.

Change management procedures are generally not considered necessary by the Indonesian agencies.

Understanding of and experience with regulatory approval processes

Potential impediment to Re-sectorisation project

There is a lack of understanding of regulatory functions generally including the approval processes for changes to ATM arrangements.

4.4 POTENTIAL FOREIGN AID CHARACTERISTICS AFFECTING THE PROJECTS

During the course of the Scoping Project there was some surrounding debate about the reluctance of Indonesian agencies to work with aid agencies and about agencies not


29


cooperating with each other. Some attitudes to aid projects are briefly outlined below. These are generally restricted to attitudes that may affect the Proposed Projects.

Table 11: Potential Foreign Aid Characteristics & Effect on Projects


General attitude to foreign aid projects

Unlikely to be a problem for the Proposed Projects as most agencies enthusiastic

There was also some discussion about the reluctance of some Indonesian agencies to cooperate with aid projects. This could be for the reasons outlined below.

There were some difficulties getting the attention / support of some agencies / managers during the Scoping Study.

Cultural differences and sensitivities may affect the outcome of projects NB: Australians appear to be well received by most.

Uncoordinated projects from different aid agencies

Possible but unlikely impediment

During the course of the Scoping Study there was discussion between aid donors and agencies in an attempt to coordinate efforts; some aid agencies were unwilling to cooperate.

Some aid initiatives would appear to be intended to gain commercial benefit for companies from the donor state.

The duplication of effort and the attitude of donor agencies can engender some suspicion about foreign aid projects.

Some previous projects seen as failures (failure may occur for a variety of reasons ranging from under-funding of projects to lack of cultural sensitivity)

Possible impediment — mostly for the CONOPS project because of its relationship to the ATM Masterplan

If some effort has been made by local agencies and an aid project is perceived to be a failure there may be a reluctance to make an effort for the next project.

All managers dealt with in DGCA mentioned the failure of previous projects where the result didn’t suit the current and evolving circumstances. The IndII sponsored ATM Masterplan is seen in this light. Consequently, there was some initial suspicion about both the Scoping Project and the Proposed Projects.

A project is more likely to receive support if:

o the products of a project are tangible.

o a project is perceived to be developing local capability (knowledge / technology transfer).

Thus there is probably greatest local support for the Capacity Analysis project followed by the Re-sectorisation project.




Some project outcomes perceived to be of little or no benefit; therefore not translated into implementation

Potential impediment — mostly for the CONOPS project; Capacity and Re-sectorisation have more tangible outputs and develop capability

Lack of benefit possibly because results not suited to organisational culture or relevant to current circumstances.

Projects that appear to provide advice only are less likely to be effective: there appears to be an appetite for projects that produce tangible results rather than just provide advice.

Stakeholders exhibited the least interest in the CONOPS project, possibly because it is the most abstract and has longer term benefit (ie, less tangible now in relation to pressing concerns). The inception of the new single ANSP has changed this because it is recognised that it will help in the definition and organisation of the core business of the new ANSP.

Desire to undertake and complete tasks without aid

Potential impediment — possibly for the for the CONOPS project because an internal ATM Masterplan is being developed; there may be some sensitivities with respect to the sectorisation project because of project already initiated.

Natural reaction from some managers. however, the key managers in DGCA and some managers in the APs do not have this attitude.

Some may be protective of (their own) existing projects, including: DGCA/DAN ATM Masterplan; proposed route changes; proposed re-sectorisation; and PBN implementation projects.

4.5 RISK PROFILES

4.5.1 Application of Risk Management for Change

Two aspects of the Indonesian environment that directly affect the application of risk management are as follows:

there is either no effective method of assessing and stating the risk of any change (either forced or prospective) or else, there is an existing method but, it is not generally well known or understood; and

there is no “birds eye” view of the consolidated strategic risk profile versus the risk appetite of organisations.

Both of these factors need to be in place to manage not only risk at an organisational level but also to manage change; these two factors are very much interrelated.


31


The development of a safety case should be a necessary part of both change and risk management. Any future changes, such as airspace changes, should not occur unless under the control of a recognised change management methodology, such as Project Management, and subject to rigorous hazard analysis as part of a safety case.

4.5.2 Risk Exposure

An overall impression of the risk profile of both the regulator and the ANSPs was gained during the scoping projects. Based on observations, the issues that have been identified have been evaluated using a simplified failure mode analysis, as follows:

1. Some key issues and risks, observed during this project, have been identified and analysed within Table 12 below. These are assessed against their perceived hazard level.

2. The likelihood and consequence of each issue negatively affecting the organisation has been (simply) evaluated. The hazard represented to the organisation has been plotted against the standard risk matrix, which is derived from ISO/ASNZ 4360, and is shown at Figure 16 below. Superimposed on this is the risk appetite is the ICAO risk level of ALARP as the upper level of what should be the risk appetite for any organisation in this industry. This is stipulated in ICAO Document 9859 as ALARP.

3. The level of control available for each of these issues/risks has been assessed. Note that this assessment is based on feedback as a result of the discussions and workshops and as well as personal observations and analysis and so should be considered as “order of magnitude” or “anecdotal”. More rigorous risk management processes will need to be applied to any future project activity. The results have been plotted against a risk appetite that is assumed to be ALARP.

Table 12: Preliminary Qualitative Risk Assessment

No Situation - Anecdotal Hazard Level Controls

A It appears that traffic levels regularly exceed what is generally accepted as reasonable capacity in some ATC sectors within 200nm of Jakarta.

Unacceptable Low

Given all the other circumstances outlined in this document, the organisational controls that are available to manage this risk are inadequate.

B Attempts are being made to change. However, the safety and regulatory assessment and approval processes are too slow to keep up with the increasing traffic demands and the increasing complexity of airspace and technology.

ALARP Medium

Given management endorsement, a simple SOP, and safety training this could occur quite rapidly.



No Situation - Anecdotal Hazard Level Controls

C There are no tools in use to assist in simulating current or future traffic flows and no way of empirically obtaining capacity figures.

ALARP Medium

A conservative approach and theoretic calculations might assist.

D Future development of ATM is not controlled by a single policy level vision to guide future capital and other works.

ALARP Low

Unless this occurs it will lead to a continuation of the adhoc development of ATM; however, it won’t directly affect safety except that disparate and incompatible systems limit the capability to safely handle unusual circumstances.

Each of the risk categories defined in the table above are also depicted graphically in Figure 16 and Figure 17 below.

Figure 16: Risk Assessment

For details of Categories A, B, C & D, refer to Table 12 above.


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Figure 17: Risk Profile

For details of Categories A, B, C & D, refer to Table 12 above.

The results of this analysis fed into the key findings of this report, and were also take into account during the development of the Scopes of Work for the three proposed projects resulting from this work.

4.6 SCOPES OF WORK (SOWS) — CONOPS, CAPACITY ANALYSIS, RESECTORISATION

The results of the synthesis of workshop and interview outcomes, review of Indonesian regulatory and Indonesian and international standards, guidance and other relevant material, as well as review of the key findings were all considered when developing the Scope of Work (SOW) for each of the required projects: Development of a CONOPS, Capacity Analysis, and Resectorisation.

The three (3) SOWs are self-contained documents and each has been treated as a separate deliverable. Note that each SOW also includes project objectives and key performance indicators in relation to the projects.

The SOWs are discussed further within the context of Project Implementation in the following chapter regarding project implementation.



CHAPTER 5: PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION

5.1 INTRODUCTION

The lifetime of the Re-sectorisation project will be shorter than the time-span required for implementation of the changes recommended by the project. There are several reasons for this:

Full implementation of re-designed routes and airspace may be staged to lessen the risks associated with this process; and

The effort required for full implementation would be greater than the available using only the available resources of the agencies concerned.

As well, ongoing change will be required because of:

The introduction of new technology (ATM — the new eJAATS and JAATS systems; navigation — Performance Based Navigation; and surveillance — ADS-B) may mean that further airspace and route changes are beneficial / required following initial changes;

Changes to route structure will be required as traffic requirements / demand changes; and

Change may be required (for example, to procedures) following the new ANSP starting operations.

Therefore, ongoing FTS will be required beyond the life of the Capacity Analysis project: for the Re-sectorisation project; and for other airspace and /or airport studies. Ongoing route changes will also be required as demand changes in the medium and longer terms.

The Concept of Operations should, under normal circumstances, remain unchanged for some time; however, with the abnormal circumstance of the formation of a new ANSP this may not be the case. The new ANSP may wish to modify the CONOPS in some fashion after it becomes operational.

The implementation of these projects has to take these factors into consideration.

5.2 PROPOSED IMPLEMENTATION STRATEGY

5.2.1 Objectives

The objectives of each of the projects are:

To produce data, results and reports containing recommendations.


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To develop the skills, expertise and experience through education and mentoring of local staff in the subject areas of the particular project.

To develop the skills, expertise and experience in the Change and Risk Management and the preparation of Safety Cases.

To develop SOPS, that suit local requirements, as needed for undertaking project tasks and obtaining approval for implementation of the outcomes. This should include the development of metrics that validate the benefits of the changes.

5.2.2 Approach

From the above it can be seen that the potential for changes after the Proposed Projects are completed is considerable. In fact, these projects are largely about introducing expertise and change management. Therefore, rather than merely producing: a CONOPS; some data and reports from a Capacity Analysis study; and a revised route structure and revised airspace sectorisation, it is better to focus upon the development of local capability for ongoing local (non-aid funded) projects - to continue where the IndII-sponsored projects leave-off.

Development of capability is also desirable from the point of view of the local stakeholders, both on a personal and organizational level. Because of this the local agencies should more readily and easily take ownership of the project products. It is also desirable from the funding agencies point of view in that it limits the funding required for each project but gives greater ongoing benefit.

The SOWs for these projects have been developed around this approach. With the orientation of the projects directed towards the development of capability, there are a number of additional phases in each of the projects (except the CONOPS project): inducting and, possibly initially educating, some of the local staff; developing Standard Operating Procedures for various phases of the project; education or mentoring concerning change and risk management, development of safety cases and, possibly, regulatory approval processes; implementation planning (although this might be included anyway); and project hand over.

Some of the necessary labour resources for the more labour intensive parts of the project, which do exist in both the Capacity Analysis and the Re-sectorisation projects, should come from local staff. This should offset some of the work in the additional phases. It is in the consultants’ interest to make sure that this happens.

5.2.3 Inclusion of the Approach in the SOWs

Example project phasing and suggested deliverables are provided in each of the Scopes of Work. These are provided only because it is a convenient means of describing the detailed requirements and outcomes of the ‘developing capability’ approach. This



provides management within the local agencies with a better understanding of the projects and should allow them to better manage their resourcing for the projects.

It is expected that consultants tendering for the project might suggest alternate phasing and deliverables but such alternatives should provide similar outcomes.

5.3 PROJECT ORDER, RESOURCES AND TIMEFRAME

The interdependencies, requisite ordering and the urgency of the Proposed Projects are outlined in the table below.

Table 13: Project Prioritisation

Project Estimated Effort

Required & Timeframe

Ordering, Urgency and Comments

Concept of Operations Effort required is estimated to be 9 person months plus some time for a local consultant and project management.

The elapsed time for the project would be 4-6 months.

This project is not dependent on either of the other projects.

This project is urgently required for the orderly development of operations within the new ANSP.

This project is required for the Re-sectorisation project.

Urgency for this project also derives from the fact that it needs to be completed before the Re-sectorisation Project.

Capacity Analysis Effort required is estimated to be 11 person months plus some time for a local consultant and project management.

The elapsed time for the project is estimated to be no less than 6 months.

This project is not dependent upon either of the other two Proposed Projects.

This project is required for the Re-sectorisation Project.

The urgency for this project derives from the fact that it needs to be completed before the Re-sectorisation Project.

This project has a high degree of acceptance (more than the others because it includes the provision of software) and should bolster confidence in the other Proposed Projects if properly implemented. After the perceived failure of the IndII-sponsored ATM Masterplan this might be necessary in some quarters).


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Project Estimated Effort

Required & Timeframe

Ordering, Urgency and Comments

Re-sectorisation Effort required is estimated to be 18 person months plus some time for a local consultant and project management.

The elapsed time for the project is estimated to be no less than 9-12 months;

This project is dependent on both the other projects which must be complete before this project can start because the CONOPS will define some of the standards to be used and the Capacity Analysis results are required as a starting point. Capacity Analysis will also be required throughout the project.

This project is urgent because its outcomes can improve safety. Since it is felt that safety is comprised at present it has a high level of urgency. Because the other two projects are required for this project they inherit the urgency of this project.

The timeframe depends somewhat on proposals provided by potential consultants.

5.4 ESTIMATED RESOURCES AND COST

A summary of estimated resources and costs is shown in the following table. The costs are based upon IndII standard rates for consultants; travel (assumed to be travel to/from Australia); accommodation; and per diem allowances. Included are allowances for: a part-time Indonesian aviation consultant who has appropriate local knowledge; a full-time Indonesian administrative assistant; project management part-time project management; and an allowance for management overhead.

Project Projected Costs Experience of Resources

Concept of Operations

Estimated costs are AU$365,000

Costs are calculated based on:

1 part time project manager; 2 consultants (average); 1 part time local consultant; 1 admin assistant; per diems + travel + management overhead

Project Manager — experience with aviation agencies and project management experience

Two or more consultants with experience developing CONOPS for ATM systems — more than two experts may be required depending on subject matter areas of consultants

One local consultant with experience with and knowledge of the local agencies, ATM systems, airlines, etc



Project Projected Costs Experience of Resources

Capacity Analysis Estimated costs are AU$445,000

Software Cost estimated at AU$250,000 + AU$30,000 for software training — no travel is included with the training

Costs are calculated based on: 1 part time project manager; 1 consultants; 1 junior consultant (for a data gathering and input); 1 part time local consultant; 1 admin assistant; per diems + travel + management overhead


One senior consultants (with back up by one junior consultant) with experience in airspace and aerodrome FTS

One local consultant with experience with and knowledge of the local agencies, ATM systems, airlines, etc for part-time involvement during various phases of the project

Re-sectorisation Estimated costs are AU$660,000

Costs are calculated based on: 1 part time project manager; 2 consultants (average); 1 part time local consultant; 1 admin assistant; per diems + travel + management overhead


Two senior consultants with experience in air route and airspace design

One local consultant with experience with and knowledge of the local agencies, ATM systems, airlines, etc for part-time involvement during various phases of the project


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CHAPTER 6: METRICS & KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS


6.1 INTRODUCTION

Metrics to be used as design constraints as part of any resectorisation works are most likely to be agreed following completion of capacity analysis, whilst also taking into account the constraints and opportunities associated with ATC facilities and resources.

With regard to analysis of total Air Traffic Management (ATM) system capacity, there are three generic methods of assessing airspace and facility capacity:

Simple Allocation (Static) Model

Fast Time Simulation (FTS)

Derived Functional Model

This section discusses the measurement of ATM system performance using methods other than Fast Time Simulation (FTS)3 because FTS is proposed as the method to be used for the Capacity Analysis project itself. The rationale for providing an overview of more simple, alternate methods to provide information to the DGCA and the ANSP organisations on methods that may be used by them in the intervening period (prior to commencement and completion of the proposed Resectorisation project).

The discussion focuses upon two different approaches, used for different purposes, for measuring the performance of an ATM system. These are:

Metrics that can be derived using deductive methods or algorithms; generally, these can be used to estimate the capacity of routes and/or airspace. Several methods are briefly referenced and one, that seems to offer potential because of its simplicity, is discussed in some detail. A detailed example is provided for this method; and

A set of Key Performance Indicators that can be used to monitor the performance of the ATM arrangements (routes, sectors and ATC procedures) in terms of common performance characteristics.

The first of these approaches is appropriate as a tool for technical analysis to be used in airspace or air route studies. This focuses on simple measurement of ATC procedures and the physical properties of the airspace and it ignores many other factors. The subject of the second approach is a set of measures of aspects of system performance that taken together, and used over time, can be used as a management tool. These

3 Tools that might be used for Fast Time Simulation (FTS) are not considered in any detail in this report. This topic is covered in some detail in a separate report (Briefing Paper: Airspace Capacity Assessment – Methods and Tools) produced as part of Project #290.



provide management with an indication of overall performance hiding many of the underlying variables and details.

The relationship between these two approaches is obvious: some of the performance indicators directly reference capacity, which can be approximated using one of the deductive methods. There is also an obvious relationship between deductive methods and FTS as they are both attempting to measure or infer the same parameter — sector or route capacity – using vastly different methods.

6.2 BACKGROUND

While movement statistics are maintained by both FIRs there is no sophisticated analysis of this data; both Jakarta and Makassar centres record total movements and hourly numbers of sector and aerodrome movements. While obtaining this data has proved to be problematic, sufficient cross sectional data has been obtained for the development of a SOW. While these statistics are not directly useful in FTS or the theoretical analysis (because they include the results of the problems that one is trying to investigate) they might be useful as input for the Key Performance Indicators.

There is no experience of FTS in Indonesia; however, some simple (internally developed) metrics have been used as a means of assessing sector capacity when undertaking studies for proposed re-sectorisation. There is also no experience or training in the development and implementation of measurement of performance using Key Performance Indicators.

There is the capability to measure actual performance; for example, sector performance can be measured in part by the numbers of aircraft within the sector at any one time and over a given hour but at present these are not necessarily measured against any particular benchmark. Hence, what is required are metrics and standards that can be used to assess results and monitor performance over time. These will provide a basis for answering the question: “Is 35 aircraft in an ATC sector acceptable at any given time?”

Some ATC staff have expressed a desire to gain experience and knowledge in capacity and performance analysis. Because they are often inordinately busy they understand that the system is overloaded and they are searching for some resolution. Some of the operational staff and management believe that the EJAATS system, a Flow Control system and a re-sectorisation will solve these problems. There is, however, an understanding that the benefits of each of these changes need to be validated; explaining the desire for the tools and experience to model the demand and capacity.

6.3 CAPACITY DETERMINATION USING ANALYSIS METHODS

There are various means of calculating theoretical capacity from ATC workload. Some examples are described below.


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ICAO — Sector Capacity measurement can be based on the “DORA TASK” or the “MBB” methods. These are referred to in the Air Traffic Services Planning Manual (Doc 9426), Appendix C. DORA TASK relies on FTS whilst MBB requires many inputs and complex mathematical computations.

FAA - Sector capacity is defined as the optimum number of flights in a given sector, over a specified period of time, which can be managed safely and efficiently. This method uses the following algorithm:

o For each 15 minute period, determine the average sector flight time, in minutes by observing the number of flights in a sector in a 15 minute period.

o Add the number of minutes each flight spends in the sector and divide that by the number of flights during this period

o Multiply the average sector flight time in minutes by 60 seconds to get the average sector flight time — in seconds

o Divide the average sector flight time in seconds by 36 seconds. This 36 seconds is a value established for use in the United States by human factor experts and represents the average time a controller interacts with a flight while in a sector

6.4 CALCULATING A METRIC USING DEDUCTIVE METHODS

A deductive methodology, utilising performance measures, can also be used to identify airspace problems. This is not as data-intensive as developing and validating a model for a large simulation. A deductive method is described below.

Brazil — This is a deductive method developed, in Brazil, for use locally, and also submitted to ICAO SAM region for adoption in the region4. The number of aircraft that can be controlled simultaneously by a single controller (N — referred to below as ATC capacity) in a given sector is estimated using the following formula:

N = φ δ (η τm νm)-1

The variables in this equation are as follows:

φ : The controller availability factor, defined as the percentage of time available for planning aircraft separation procedures.

δ: Average distance flown by aircraft in the sector, which is a function of the paths and en route or terminal procedures established for each sector.

4

Methodology to estimate airport and ATC Sector capacity – ICAO SAM – refer http://www.lima.icao.int/eDocuments/ATM/ATFM/4ATFM%20Calculation%20Guide%20Airport%20and%20ATC%20Sector%20Capacity%20Eng.pdf

http://www.lima.icao.int/eDocuments/ATM/ATFM/4ATFM%20Calculation%20Guide%20Airport%20and%20ATC%20Sector%20Capacity%20Eng.pdf

http://www.lima.icao.int/eDocuments/ATM/ATFM/4ATFM%20Calculation%20Guide%20Airport%20and%20ATC%20Sector%20Capacity%20Eng.pdf



η: Number of communications for each aircraft in the sector, which should be limited to the least possible number required for an understanding between the pilot and the controller. This number can be minimised by issuing a complete clearance sufficiently in advance for flight planning.

τm: Duration of each message. This factor can be minimised by issuing messages objectively, without long explanations that are detrimental for an understanding between the pilot and the controller.

νm: Speed of aircraft in the sector.

If δ and νm are replaced with the average flight time of the aircraft in the sector (T), this formula can be replaced with a simpler version:

N = φ T (η τm)-1

The values of factors φ, T, η and τm can be obtained empirically.

For example, we can consider T= 12 minutes, τm = 9 seconds, φ = 60%, η = 6, which gives a number of aircraft N = 8 simultaneously controlled by the controller in the given sector. In other words, in this sector and under these conditions, a controller would be expected to simultaneously control a maximum of 8 aircraft.

This methodology might be used as a starting point for any simulation exercise for the following reasons:

The model can be used in any circumstance to measure capacity.

It has been published as a result of an ICAO project so it should be reliable.

It is a low cost methodology that does not require any software.

It does not require constant values derived from databases.

Practical experience on the use of the model can be acquired immediately, resulting in the creation of a standard database for statistical purposes.

Supports the requirements of a Flow Control system.

However, care should be taken in using it as it can give inconsistent results. In the above example:

o If one considers a 12 minute period in which the demand is at maximum capacity for the whole of the period (that is, as one aircraft leaves the airspace as another enters – unlikely but it avoids complications in the calculations)

o Each aircraft requires 54 seconds of communication (τm = 9 seconds x η = 6) so 7.2 minutes are required for communication; hence

o Sixty percent of the 12 minute period is required for communication so there can’t have been 6 0 percent available for ‘planning’


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Note also an apparent discrepancy: simply rearranging the formula gives the following:

N (η τm) T-1 = φ

The left hand side is the percentage of total time communicating with all aircraft. However, the ICAO study team defined φ to be the percentage of time available for ‘planning’.

6.5 APPLICATION OF THE BRAZILIAN MODEL TO AN INDONESIAN SECTOR

This demonstrates the application of the above methodology to busy Indonesian ATC sector with some sample data taken from AP II. This is an example only and a full analysis would need to be conducted complete with some form of sensitivity analysis; however it does serve to show the order of magnitude of the issue.

To simplify the calculation it will refer to Upper Semarang Class A airspace within Jakarta FIR along the routes of W16 and W45 (refer to Figure 18 below — Profile of Upper Semarang (US) sector) which is considered one of the busiest route in Asia. (Other considerations are: there is generally good surveillance and VHF coverage; appropriate ATC automation within JAATS; and high reliability of ground-to-ground coordination communication between Jakarta and Ujung Pandang Centres.)

The same formula to calculate sector capacity will be:

N = φ ⋅ T ⋅ (η ⋅ τm)-1

Figure 18: Profile of Upper Semarang (US) Sector

Source: AP II



Upper Semarang airspace (W16)

Let us assume flights inbound to Jakarta via W16 transfer from the upper control sector to Lower/TMA after 7 minutes entering sector (MADIN). With surveillance separation service provided and most of required flight data available before traffic entering the sector, where η = 5 then N will be:

N = (7 x 60 x 80%) / (9 x 5) = 336 / 45 = 7 aircraft.

Upper Semarang airspace (W45)

ATS route W45 is an outbound route for flights departing from Soekarno-Hatta to the eastern part of Indonesia such as Surabaya, Bali, Makassar and many others located within the Ujung Pandang FIR. With a no issues regarding condition such as surveillance, VHF com, ATC automation where the average T = 10 then N will be:

N = (10 x 60 x 80%) / 9 x 5 = (600 x 80%) / 45 = 480 / 45 = 10 aircraft

To estimate the sector capacity we need to calculate the average time aircraft spend in the sector. If we assume that W16 has 50% more traffic than W45 the proportion of traffic in each sector is W16 = 60% and W45 = 40%. So the average time of aircraft in the sector is:

T = TW16 * 60 % + TW45 * 40% = 7 * 60% + 10 * 40% = 8.2 minutes

Using the formula again for the sector:

N = (8.2 x 60 x 80%) / (9 x 5) = (492 x 80%) / 45 = 394 / 45 = 8.7 aircraft

Information collected from ATC at Jakarta indicated that average traffic for the Upper Semarang Sector is 22 aircraft at any one time and anecdotal evidence shows up to 35. Even though there has been no formal capacity study it is evident that the traffic numbers far exceed the expected maximum this calculation has produced.

There are several factors that are constantly influencing the number N and that are directly related, such as the size of the sector or route modification, CNS infrastructures and standard separation applied. Consequently, whenever a significant change is observed, the value obtained must be updated.

Under ideal conditions, data collection must be done with busy traffic. Therefore, the selection of the ideal period is a factor to be taken into account, since it has a direct impact on the final result.

Notwithstanding the anecdotal nature of this exercise, a simple sensitivity calculation of 100% error shows peak traffic still outstrips the theoretical capacity of the sector.


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6.6 ADDITIONAL METRICS

Whilst the metric above is an example of how we can capture an important but single metric for baselining and the on-going measurement of performance of sectorisation, it is not the only metric that could be used. It is necessary to have a range of indicators to order to obtain a cross section of performance against a number of result areas, each of which are important in having a holistic view of the sectorisation.

It is recommended that the following three result areas be adopted in that they are broadly recognised within air navigation service providers (ANSP). Examples of Key Result Areas (KRA) can be found within the Civil Aviation Navigation Service (provider) Organisation (CANSO) reports.

Productivity (business indicator)

Efficiency and Effectiveness (operational indicators)

Safety

An example of one performance measure in relation to productivity is provided below. This measure applies to the total airspace and not just one sector. It is a metric for which data is easily gathered and indicates how productive the entire sectorisation is for one Centre. It can be used to compare productivity against international standards and also between different Centres in Indonesia. It should not, in itself, be used as a sole driver for sectorisation as increasing “productivity” can lead to detrimental impacts on safety; accordingly, it must be viewed as part of a suite of metrics.

Figure 19: CANSO Productivity Figures



Another is the set of indicators are those that show efficiency and effectiveness. These areas refer to operational performance; however, they are two different aspects to the same operational situation, they can have multiple metrics, and they are sometimes confused. A dictionary definition of these terms is listed below:

Effective (adj.) — Adequate to accomplish a purpose; producing the intended or expected result.

Efficient (adj.) — Performing or functioning in the best possible manner, with the least waste of time and effort.

In an operational sense, a metric for efficiency (of an ATC sector in terms of ATC workload) would be the metric covered above (the Brazilian method); maximum sector occupancy. However, this is also a safety indicator, and so the value used for the metric should contain a buffer. An accepted practice in systems is to pitch system load at 70% of theoretical total capacity and so the maximum sector occupancy should be modified accordingly.

Effectiveness has a different context in that it also looks at the maximum sector occupancy with a view to the least possible delay to the overall ATM system. According, the metrics here can refer to holding time or additional time in sector due to (self induced) delays.

Safety metrics can also be based, in part on sector occupancy. Exceeding theoretical sector occupancy is a significant indicator that would require management to research underpinning reasons for this. It may be a resectorisation is required, or it may even mean the metric is wrong.

6.7 TAXONOMY FOR PERFORMANCE MEASURES

There is a need to place performance measures within a taxonomy, or classification schema. The examination to date represents a selection of indicators. The following framework is recommended as it provides some form of traceably as to the reasons why the indicator is required, and what the scope of the metric covers.

Table 14: Performance Areas & Metrics

Key Performance

Area Planned Outcome Scope Metrics

Productivity To meet industry standards for the cost of delivering Air Traffic Services for the Asia Pacific area.

All operational Air Traffic Control staff within the ACC including direct supervision.

1400 IFR flight hours of aircraft in the FIR, per operational ATC Officer per annum.


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Key Performance

Area Planned Outcome Scope Metrics

Efficiency Utilise air route, airspace, and ATC resources to provide the most efficient outcome for users.

Provide Capacity at all times to match the approved metric measured over the 3 busiest hours for each sector.

Meet demand at or about 70% of theoretic or FTS derived Capacity for each sector

Effectiveness Harmonised arriving air traffic (en-route to terminal area to aerodrome) and harmonised departing air traffic (aerodrome to terminal area to en-route) should translate to reduced arrival and departure holding times and thus reduced fuel burn and carbon emissions.

Match Capacity to meet Demand averaged over 3 busiest hours for that sector.

Average planned time=Average actual time in sector.

(Note this may be replaced dependent upon the new ICAO Carbon emission standards)

Safety Ensure the highest standards of operational safety are maintained.

As per ICAO Doc 9859 SMM, Ed 3 (2012, advanced): establish High (& Lower) Consequence Indicators (Safety Indicators, Alert Levels & Target Level Criteria)

Applies to all individual ATC sectors.

Traditional Metric: Measured average over 3 busiest hours.

SMM Ed 3 Metrics: Scope by Individual Sectors, which also permits aggregate results for FIRs. Refer to latest ICAO SMM for guidance material.

Traditional Approach: No incidents when operating at more than 70% of maximum theoretical or FTS derived Capacity for that sector.

Transition to ICAO SMM Ed 3 Methods:

Safety Performance (SP) Indicator: 40 airspace incidents per 100,000 hours flown

SP Alert Level: 2σ (SD) change (eg, occurrence increase), reset annually

SP Target: 30% reduction over the 5-year moving average



CHAPTER 7: CONCLUSION

This chapter contains a brief summary of conclusions.

7.1 NEED FOR THE PROJECTS

There is an increasing need for each of the three proposed IndII Projects. The particular needs and urgency for each project are:-

CONOPS: the new single ANSP will need a CONOPS to assist in organising the operational components of its business. This is very urgent as the formation new organisation is starting to take place. There is also some urgency derived from it being a pre-requisite for the Re-sectorisation project;

Re-sectorisation and Revised Route Structure: There are two imperatives for this project: safety and efficiency. Both these attributes of aviation in Indonesian, which also affect international and over-flight operations, will deteriorate as the volume of air traffic continues to increase. So urgency derives from the need to prevent any catastrophic accidents; and

Capacity Analysis: This is required to support the revision of the route structure and re-sectorisation.

The underlying requirements for these projects will not be fully satisfied within a realistic project timeframes. So capability needs to be developed within the Indonesian agencies to allow (potential) ongoing development of the CONOPS and development of it into concrete plans, ongoing capacity analysis to support ongoing revision of the route structure and sectorisation as traffic requirements and technology implementation change over time. Developing this capability requires the involvement of local agency staff in each of the projects.

Additional developed capability in the areas of risk assessment, safety case development and change management would be highly desirable side products of these projects as it appears (from anecdotal evidence concerning existing local projects) skills in these areas are lacking. Also, because of the working arrangements of local staff outside resources are necessary to bootstrap capability in these areas.

7.2 POTENTIAL DIFFICULTIES

Many of potential difficulties are briefly mentioned in the chapter Key Findings. Briefly they are:

Local staff involvement: Local staff have the commitments of their normal operational responsibilities. This may not allow sufficient involvement in the


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CHAPTER 7: CONCLUSION

Proposed Projects to fully develop local capabilities. Negotiation with local management may be required to overcome this potential impediment.

Changing organisational environment: The introduction of the new singe ANSP will mean that the existing ANSPs and some staff within DGCA will be distracted by work on formation and other taskforces. There will also be some distraction caused by competition between the two existing organisations for positions and power.

Changing technology environment: There are substantial technology changes in navigation (the introduction of Performance Based Navigation), surveillance (the introduction of ADS-B) and ATM (change over to the EJAATS system and the procurement and commissioning of the new JAATS replacement system); introduction of Flow Management, Collaborative Decision Making and Flight Plan 2012). These changes add to both the uncertainty surrounding the Proposed Projects and the number of issues that must be considered in each project, and the workload on the agencies themselves.

Suspicion about foreign aid projects: There is a natural suspicion about some aid projects following earlier failures, some duplication, and possibly too many aid projects aimed at giving advice and/or recommendations only.

7.3 POTENTIAL SUCCESS FACTORS FOR THE PROJECTS

While there are difficulties as outlines above, there are also factors that will contribute to the success of the projects. These are:

Enthusiasm for the Projects: There is considerable enthusiasm for the projects amongst senior management within most of the agencies. This is partly because of the nature of the projects (they are seen as being very necessary) and because they offer the promise of developing local capability.

Use of local resources: This has the potential to lessen workload on the consultants undertaking the projects, allowing them to focus more on a mentoring role. Not only is it a good method for knowledge transfer, through the commitment of local resources by stakeholder agencies it will also foster buy-in; essentially converting their enthusiasm to tangible buy-in and better ongoing commitment.

Tangible nature of the results: Unlike many other aid projects they are not just undertaking investigations with the output being reports with recommendations. While, undoubtedly, reports and recommendations will result from these projects there will also be software, trained staff, data, risk assessments and safety cases, implementation plans, some changes to route structure and airspace, possibly new regulations and Standard Operating Procedures. Many of these are much more tangible than the advice given from some previous projects and therefore provide a more substantial value proposition to all parties concerned.



ANNEXES

ANNEXE 1: STRENGTHS, WEAKNESSES & THREATS

Strengths and Resilience

The ANSP and Regulatory staff have a solid level of technical competence. As with any such organisations there is, however, an uneven distribution of expertise and competence. The scoping study has found many staff that are very enthusiastic, understand that changes need to occur to meet future challenges, and in many cases have sufficient technical knowledge. Whilst it easy to focus on negative aspects of the environment, this strength and resilience is probably the industry’s most valuable resource as these people will form the basis of the future ATM system.

Contextual Analysis

There are currently large levels of change within the Aviation Industry. The reasons for these changes are both “push” and “pull”. The ATM system is stressed because of excessive traffic and complexity. The range of newer aircraft in the Indonesian fleet and the inevitable wish to use the advanced navigation capabilities to maximum commercial advantage means that there is an increasing need to move towards PBN concepts in ATM and airspace management. The demand for domestic and international air travel is growing at a rate that is unsupportable in the long term without major multi modal transport policy changes. In the short term the number of new regional jets anticipated to join the fleet starting in 2013 will increase the load, whilst overloaded routes cannot be serviced by larger aircraft because of limitations of ground facilities outside of Jakarta.

In this environment of increasing demand, limited only by a departure slot allocation framework at Soekarno Hatta, AP II is in the process of moving to an interim RDP/FDP system whilst a more permanent replacement for the aging Jakarta Air Traffic Control System can be found. There is a belief within the DGCA and ANSPs that new systems will generate capacity where there is none today. This might be so in the longer term but international experience indicates there is likely to be less capacity unless there is a significant airspace reorganisation to facilitate the increasing traffic loads. In short, a trust that technology will solve capacity problems is ill conceived without looking at the other components of the ATM system, the people, the processes, and the airspace architecture.

In the face of the challenges of the future, the DGCA and ANSPs have been assisted in the past by a range of external agencies. The known range of these agencies has been identified within this document. They range from the altruistic endeavours of friendly


51

ANNEXES

nations such as Australia and the United States to the purely commercially motivated Governments seeking to support the commercial interests of client companies. Whatever the motivation, the result has been a set of reports, plans, and recommendations undertaken on behalf of and or requested by the Indonesian authorities. These plans have been uncoordinated and together are discordant as they represent the attitudes and positions of other ATM frameworks and cultures, and not that of Indonesia. Apart from the examples where Indonesian ANSPs have engaged directly with foreign ANSPs to work directly together on a problem, the result is largely that of forgotten manuscripts gathering dust on shelves within DGCA.

The IndII ATM master plan was an excellent attempt to bring together all the disparate requirements of ATM in document and yet it still lacks a level of policy and strategy that will be required in the future.

This analysis supports the need for a concept document for Indonesia and recommends a support a project to provide this document.

Technical Analysis

There is a level or urgency to address airspace and ATC capacity because the limits are now being tested with growing demand from a high growth industry, and new airborne technology. Anecdotal evidence shows that this is approaching the edge of safety in some areas. In designing appropriate metrics for demand and capacity of sectors, a Brazilian methodology was used to validate one sector. This sector is arguably the most complex sector within both the Jakarta and Makassar FIR in that it contains high traffic levels, converging air routes with no lateral separation, climbing and descending traffic and a hand off to another system. The calculations for this sector indicated that no more than 17 aircraft at any one time should be in the sector. The scoping team have been shown radar images with up to 35 aircraft at any one time. Given that any theoretic calculation will have to be tested empirically, it is understood that this figure is an order of magnitude only. However, with ATC experts very uncomfortable about the situation combined by such a large divergence between calculated and actual traffic figures constitute a real risk and a warning that some action is required.

There are local initiatives that are before the Regulator for approval to resectorise the current ATC high-level airspace in both Jakarta and Makassar FIRs. These resectorisation proposals have merit and are relatively low risk in that they divide some of the current sectors into two sectors based on relatively independent air routes. There are no tools to simulate traffic flows and review demand and capacity so this proposal is based on expert advice and knowledge only.

There is an initiative to implement a (dynamic) Flow Management Unit with locally produced software; however, it is proving problematic as there are no tools to measure capacity against demand and no SOP for the theoretical calculation of capacity limits. There are also issues of training and rating “flow control” personnel. There is an initiative to increase the capacity of the runways at Soekarno-Hatta



aerodrome by using dedicated runways for approaches and departures and (assumed) different control towers.

Notwithstanding the attempts to resectorise and other initiatives, they will be largely ineffectual unless the underlying high level and Jakarta terminal air routes are reviewed and simplified. In addition major conflict points and coordination points should be reviewed and simplified. This could form the first step in the implementation of PBN, but in any case it would provide a high value of return on investment rather than a large “green fields” review of all airspace management. It is recognised that the major issues in terms of demand and capacity and ATC loading occur within 200nm of Jakarta and within an airspace corridor that goes from the Malay Peninsula and Singapore, over Java and outwards towards Denpasar and Australia. This constitutes some of the busiest air routes in the world. Outside these areas, traffic is currently at relatively lower levels and well within the limits of (assumed) capacity. It therefore makes sense to target any work around these areas and utilise the Pareto principle to gain the best value for the investment dollar. The SOW for sectorisation refers to an incremental approach and targets simplification of air routes and major conflict points, as well as simplification of terminal airspace arrangements and procedures. This, together with simulation technology will allow the Indonesian authorities to gain the maximum capacity from the airspace at the lowest cost. It is recommended that Airspace Reorganisation Project is progressed as soon as possible as well as a project to facilitate the needs of understanding demand and capacity.

It is worth noting that none of the change proposals this project observed have provided the regulator with a risk management plan or a solid form of substantiation for the change, even though any casual technically competent observer would note that immediate change is required. The issue here is one of approval processes and what level of substantiation is required for changing airspace architecture.

Organisational Analysis

Currently there are several organisations providing services (ANSPs) within Jakarta and Makassar FIRs:

Angkasa Pura (Makassar)

Angkasa Pura 2 (Jakarta)

DGCA

Private

The number and level of private ANSPs is not clear but understood to consist of private traffic as well as weather advisory services for mining and similar operations. These will, and should, continue into the future. However the situation between AP I, AP II, and DGCA will change substantially in the future with the Law (22 of 2012) establishing one primary ANSP. The impact on current organisations is unknown; however, the remit and scope of the single ANSP and the timing of the changes are detailed in the


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Law. In the meantime, any changes to airspace architecture will need to be negotiated across three organisations, noting that the current remit of DGCA is both as a Regulator and a service provider. The current organisational structures lack of clear SOPs, and a ‘silo culture’ means that any change is difficult to achieve. This is especially so as there are no dedicated staff for change or initiatives. Staff within the DGCA and the Service Providers give extra time on top of their day to day duties to undertaken initiative such as redesigning ATC sectors. The lack of resources, the current structures, and the lack of knowledge of project and change management make it difficult and time consuming to undertake and gain approval for any large changes.

Business Rules for Future Implementation

The issue of implementation is key to the success of the proposed projects. As discussed earlier in this document, there are a plethora of recommendations and so the approach proposed in this report is to enable an end-to-end process. What is essential is that some key business principles are laid down and adhered to in the prosecution of any future assistance work.

It is clear from the analysis and information that the past activities of providing strategic advice and analysis have provided less than acceptable results. Where ANSPs, such as Airservices Australia, engage directly and do work on site with counterparts, progress and sustainability occurs and the results are satisfactory. This is an example of where something works because it is hands-on and direct assistance and mentoring. Where strategic advice and reports are provided, especially those motivated by transparent commercial motives, what is left is a proliferation of uncoordinated recommendations and plans and no action. Therefore what is recommended is that a hands-on approach to be adopted for the proposed projects and that the primary focus should be implementation and not providing advice. A hands-on assistance approach needs to embrace not only Air Traffic Management skills, but also Project and Change Management.

The difficulties in both internal and external coordination have been discussed. It is therefore recommended that any future work be undertaken from within a central project team with accountability for delivery of all activities from start to finish. This does not mean that aid agencies should take over what is rightly the responsibility of the ANSP or the Regulator: it means that what is missing are core resources dedicated to a technical solution and not day-to-day operation, and the necessary Project and Change Management skills and processes. The Regulator must be encouraged and assisted in setting up and running parallel and complementary task forces to deliver their portion of a fully implemented change.

The need for an enabling team does mean that there is not a need for technical support. Whist there is considerable technical knowledge and ability within ANSP and the Regulator, there does need to be on site support with ATM expertise. There is a view, supported by many reports, which encourage the implementation of ICAO targets in relation to Performance Based Navigation and other long-term objectives.



These are worthy objectives; however the basic building blocks of good Airspace and or Air Traffic Management need to be put in place before this can occur successfully. Large “green field” approaches carry with them a high cost and high risk.

It is recommended that any future enabling project in the short term undertake work along the “Pareto principle” (commonly known as the 80%/20% principle), and acknowledges the heuristic that 80% of most endeavours are obtained with only 20% of the required effort or resources. That is, we should seek best return on investment in the basic building blocks of ATM, rather than large, technically sophisticated “Euro-centric”, FAA NextGen or ICAO “cutting edge” ATM paradigms.


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ANNEXE 2: METHODOLOGY

The general approach taken in considering how the proposed three projects might be undertaken was to consider not only the technical requirements but also the organisational and cultural requirements and impacts. The three proposed projects are related and the requirements and impacts for all three were investigated simultaneously.

It was originally envisaged that the team would consist of the nominated consultants with the assistance of identified stakeholders who could act as counterparts representing the interests of the various aviation agencies. This approach was proved not possible because:

The diverse and bureaucratic nature of the three key organisations made the identification of representative counterparts difficult;

The short timeframe was insufficient for this identification process; and

The short timeframe allowed for each project individually (and even both projects together) was insufficient for organising and conducting workshops and individual interviews with the appropriate stakeholders (excluding time for follow-up interviews, analysis and full documentation of the project, including development of the Scopes of Work). Some of the reasons are the number of agencies that necessarily had to be involved, the Indonesian “meeting culture”, and the complexity and importance of the subject matter.

Past experience indicates this approach has merit and it is worth pursuing in the future. This requirement for a counterpart team approach has been included in the Scopes for Work for all three projects which are anticipated to result from these projects (IndII Activities #289 and #290).

Whilst there was no impact on the outcome and deliverables of Project #289, the parallel and interrelated Project #290 was delayed by ill health of the nominated consultant and this changed the original scheduled dates for some activities and contributed to delay in completion of both projects.

Work Plan

An overview of the work plan for the original six-week project period is provided below in Figure 20.



Figure 20: Original Work Plan and Schedule for Project 289 (Project 290 was similar)

Activity Responsibility Week

1 Week

2 Week

3 Week

4 Week

5 Week

6

Project Plan Off Site (PA&JMc)

Prepare Stakeholder Meetings

On Site (NM)

Mobilise PA

Analysis Team

Meetings & Workshop Team

Prepare & QA Report Team

Deliver Report Team

Work originally planned to be done off-site was actually conducted onsite in Jakarta. The on-site work was started early with the intention of avoiding an overlap with Ramadan. The detailed project planning, in accordance with the project management methodology, was undertaken on site. This original planning indicated that the work could be undertaken within a six week period; however, subsequent project activities were modified because of the need to accommodate activities within the timeframe for project 290. The detailed project schedule for Project 289 (see Figure 21) shows the planned activities and milestones and the actual outcomes.

Figure 21: Project Schedule - Actual vs Baseline

The project outcomes have been successful in that all project deliverables have been provided in accordance within cost constraints, with an appropriate quality and with only a slight delay.


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Stakeholder Engagement

Preparation for, and obtaining acceptance of the SOWs, required significant consultation with various stakeholders. Interaction was undertaken utilising several methods as follows:

1. Workshops

2. Personal Interviews

3. Visit to ATS facilities

4. Structured Questionnaire

A detailed stakeholder engagement plan was utilised to plan and monitor these activities. This plan is provided within 0. An assessment of stakeholders and their reactions during this project is provided in the main body of the report.

Workshops

An initial workshop to identify and inform stakeholders at both the Business and Operational levels of the relevant organisations was planned. When onsite, the consultants used a more direct approach of conducting interviews with some of the relevant management. A record of these interviews is provided in ANNEXE 5:.

An executive level workshop that focused the organisational responses required, meeting both external stakeholder and customer expectations into the future was planned and delivered on the 5th of July. This provided insight into the specific requirements for the development of a Concept of Operations and issues relating to Capacity and Airspace Management. The minutes and outcomes of this workshop are contained at ANNEXE 5: Minutes of Workshops, and Formal Meetings and Presentations.

An Air Traffic Management workshop that focused on the operational, technical and organisational requirements for Re-sectorisation and Capacity Analysis was delivered on the 12th of July. This provided insight into the specific technical requirements for a future resectorisation review in accordance with the Concept of Operation and utilising the results from the Capacity Analysis. This workshop attempted to have a comprehensive cross section of industry in attendance including airlines users, ATM providers, the regulator, and professional organisations. The workshop was only partially successful in that it did not attract the attention of as many stakeholders as hoped, but it did lead to meaningful discussion and dialogue with some parties.

A workshop was envisaged as an exit exercise. It was decided that the aims of this exercise could be more effectively achieved using a presentation on the proposed Scopes of Work to individual key stakeholders. A presentation was made to the Director Air Navigation, the sub directors of Air Navigation. Several discussions were also held with the Secretary General.



Once draft versions of the Scopes of Works were available these were presented to various stakeholders for review. Received comments were incorporated in the final versions.

Records and minutes of workshops were used in the analysis that led to the Scopes of Work and are provided at ANNEXE 5:.

Interviews with Other Key Stakeholders

In addition to workshops, formal and other discussions were held with other key stakeholders. Some of these have been recorded and are also available in ANNEXE 5: to this document. Discussions were held with:

1. Lion Air

2. Garuda

3. AP I (Planning Manager and others) and AP II (ATS Manager and those involved with the proposed re-sectorisation)

4. ICAO (PBN Implementation)

Questionnaire

A questionnaire was distributed to all staff invited to attend the formal workshops to elicit opinions concerning the issues and risks associated with airspace management, capacity and demand. Only one response was received despite repeated attempts to have them returned. This is discussed further in ANNEXE 4:.

Integration of Project #289 with Project #290 (Capacity Study)

This Project #289 was to be undertaken in parallel with Project #290. Project #290 objectives were to review capacity issues and provide a SOW for a capacity analysis project and most of the stakeholders were the same for both projects. Additionally, the proposed Re-sectorisation project will be reliant upon the outcomes of the proposed Capacity Analysis project.

During the on-site work for Project #289, it became impossible to mobilise the principle consultant for Project #290. Fortunately, both projects had been awarded to the one company, Strategic Airspace, and the expertise and experience of the consultants for both projects overlapped. As such, all ensuing activities undertaken during the progress of this project were designed to support the data gathering and stakeholder management requirements of both projects. This provided the support required to the principle consultant to conduct the analysis and to construct the SOW


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for #290 whilst located in Australia. This was only possible because the subject areas of both projects are closely interrelated.



ANNEXE 3: STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT PLAN

STAKEHOLDER MANAGEMENT

INTRODUCTION

Goal

To facilitate and effectively manage stakeholders and changes associated with the IndII project 289, a scoping study for resectorisation and other airspace management activities, and the development of a comprehensive Concept of Operations for Indonesia.

Objectives

The objectives of the stakeholder engagement plan are as follows:

1. Recognise and define the key stakeholders, and guarantee timely involvement and buy-in from them. This includes relevant unions, other business units and external parties.

2. Develop and implement an appropriate project communication plan aimed at ensuring suitable and effective communication between project members, key stakeholders and all employees within DGCA, AP I andAP II.

3. Work closely with the DGCA, AP I and AP II staff and provide advice and support as necessary on Air Traffic Management and Change Management.

4. Identify and manage the barriers and issues that may provide opposition to the successful and complete implementation of the project(s) being scoped.

5. Recognise, and act upon, opportunities to enhance the open exchange of ideas and information between members of the project team and stakeholders.

Engagement Strategy

Project #289 and #290 were conducted concurrently and are interrelated. They therefore have almost the same set of stakeholders. Therefore all public activities were conducted together to bring about efficiencies in time management within both projects and to avoid over exposure to stakeholders.

The team planned to engage stakeholders as follows. The activities are not necessarily in chronological order.


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Activity Strategy

Conduct Induction Workshop This will be conducted by way of personal interviews and explanation to senior management staff. The reason for this is the lack of a full set of stakeholders within the timeframe and the apparent “stakeholder weariness towards workshops” observed.

Stakeholder communication management plan

The team will maintain a stakeholder listing to ensure stakeholders have been identified and listed. This will be used to track and manage the communication.

Management Workshop Conduct a workshop with senior management to discuss high level concepts and needs in relation to both airspace management and concept of operation.

Technical Workshop Conduct a workshop with technical specialists from

Interview with Key Stakeholders Obtain permission from Air Navigation to work directly with technical experts within DGCA.

Circulate a Questionnaire Provide a questionnaire in both English and Bahasa to obtain information from stakeholders.

Visit to ATC Centre Visit the Jakarta ATC Centre to interview both staff and engage them.

Use technical experts to advise on the scope of work

Provide the provisional results of the project to both gain data and to continue to engage them.

Conduct Exit Workshop This will be conducted by way of personal interviews and explanation to senior management staff. The reason for this is the timeframe and the apparent “stakeholder weariness towards workshops” observed.

Stakeholder Management Plan

The following stakeholder management plan is dynamic document that was maintained by the team to ensure the communication and engagement of stakeholders was planned, tracked and recorded.

Table 15: Stakeholder Management and Communication

# Name Job Title Organisation Role

1 Pak Ischwai Director of Air Navigation

DGCA Director

2 Ibu (Fifi) Arfiyanti Samad

Secretary to the Director General

DGCA Planning



# Name Job Title Organisation Role

3 Pak Novie Riyanto Rahardjo

Deputy Director DGCA Standardisation & Certification of Air

Navigation, plus Systems & Procedures

4 Pak Wisnu Daryono Deputy Director DGCA Air Traffic Management

5 Pak Djokom DGCA Director

6 Pak Bang Bank Tjahyoo

Director of Airports DGCA Director

7 Pak Haryoso Director of Operations AP I Manager, Airspace & Aerodromes

8 Pak Salahudin Rafi Director of Operations AP II Manager Aerodromes & Airspace

9 President Indonesian Air Carriers

Association

Airline Association


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ANNEXE 4: AIRSPACE QUESTIONNAIRE

The following airspace questionnaire was circulated to all technical workshop attendees and all those who were invited. On the version that was circulated, there was space for anybody to respond on the page below the questions.

Submitted by _______

Please return this to IndII project office no later than 19th

July 2012:

Fax: 62 21 72780517; or

e-mail: [email protected]

Indonesia Infrastructure Initiative (IndII) menemukenali adanya kebutuhan untuk studi kapasitas ruang udara dan sectorisation sebagai kegiatan untuk memungkinkan pelaksanaan Manajemen Lalu Lintas Penerbangan (ATM) Masterplan. ATM Masterplan mengungkapkan adanya kekurangan dalam sectorisation saat ini di Indonesia dan studi ruang udara yang direkomendasikan adalah untuk menentukan sectorisation paling efisien untuk memenuhi kebutuhan masa depan dan pengembangan model untuk memungkinkan penilaian kapasitas wilayah udara sebagai akibat dari perubahan sistem wilayah udara masa depan.

1. What are the main issues, problems and risk with the current enroute air route structure within the Indonesian FIRs?

2. What do you see as the main issues, risks and problems concerning airspace management including ATC sectorisation, airspace categories and rules of the air?

3. What do you think are the main issues and constraints that limit the capacity of any particular air route or airport?

4. What do you think are the main issues and constraints of the current Communications, Navigation and Surveillance (CNS) Systems relating to efficient and safe ATM, sectorisation, airspace usage and aircraft operations?

5. What do you think are the main issues and constraints of the current ATC staffing and training relating to efficient and safe ATM, sectorisation, airspace usage and aircraft operations?

6. Are there any proposals or planning for new air routes, CNS, sectorisation and ATC staffing and training?

7. Which organisations provide forecasts of airport and airspace movements? 8. Which organisations provide computer simulation and modeling of current and forecast

airport and airspace movements? What are the simulation and modeling tools used? 9. Given your comments to the questions above, do you have any suggested actions or

changes to systems or processes to address your concerns.



ANNEXE 5: MINUTES OF WORKSHOPS, AND FORMAL MEETINGS AND PRESENTATIONS

WORKSHOP 1 - MANAGEMENT WORKSHOP

Administration

Location: Secretary of Directorate General Meeting Room 5th Floor, Karsa Builiding-MoT.

The participants consisted of the following staff from IndII and DGCA and AP II.

Peter Atkins

Novaro Martodihardjo

John McCarthy

Novie Riyanto R. (Deputy Director of Standardization & Certification of Air Navigation-DGCA)

Elvrita (Airspace Management-DAN)

Aulia (ATS requirement and certification-DAN)

Moh. Hasan Bashory ( Chief Of Standardization Of Air Navigation-DGCA)

BAMBANG P SIGIT / SRI MARDI ISMOYO, (Angkasa Pura II — HO)

DAMA, ANGGA, HARI, BUDI, DAN (CNS infrastructure)

SRI LESTARI /QORY, DAN (Aeronautical Data Management)

HERU / MEGA, DAN (Charts and Publication)

Maria Renny, Riffa Hadiya Santi, Revy Petragradia, Annety Ngabito, Soraya (IndII)

Overview of Workshop

This was the executive level workshop to allow the consultants to develop project scope and tender specifications for future projects. These future activities will provide the RI with an ATM Concept of Operation, a revised airspace configuration including sectorisation and air route structures, and the tools and methodologies to measure and manage capacity, as required by the ATM Master Plan.

Briefing Points:

Mr. Peter Atkins explained that the ATM Master Plan is an excellent a start but lacked a strategic policy level concept of operations. The approved ATM Master Plan


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recommended a series of short term activities including airspace management and demand and capacity management activities. The Master Plan was subject to review by DGCA and AP I/AP II — facilitated by consultants from IndII and recommended priority activities including; development of an Operational Concept Document and airspace redesign.

Based on the need to now proceed with some of the ATM Master Plan recommended actions, the consultant needs the participants to provide him with an understanding regarding the issues including:

What is the status of air routes and the associated airspace management including ATC sectorisation

What plans do you have in place to address any issues, forecast increase in movements, risks or changes to procedures and technology?

Who is responsible for any of those plans and what is the expected timeframe for them?

Apart from the ATM Master plan, what other plans are being used for strategic guidance — for example the “blueprint” plans.

What other corporate, strategic or business plans are expected to be provided in the next 12 months?

Who is responsible for any of those plans and what is the timeframe?

Table 16: Key Comments by Stakeholders

# Person /

Representative Summary of Comments

1. HASAN BUSHORI:

DAN (ATS routes and SID/Starr Section)

• Indicated that ATS route network within Indonesia needs to be reviewed considering domestic traffic has increase substantially over the last 5 to 10 years. In addition the traffic patterns no longer represent the city pairs on the air routes.

• Performance Based Navigation has a plan but there has been no implementation to date.

2. ERVITA:

DAN (Airspace Management)

• DAN (Airspace Section) in cooperation with AP I and AP II had initiated a modification of some ATS route within Jakarta and U.Pandang FIRs. This is ongoing and she offered to supply the documentation

• Referred to question on duty and function on IDSC, she mention that because IDSC regulates domestic slots at the airport rather than aerodrome, it causes disruption in regulating the flow of traffic onto aerodrome and into airspace. She further mentioned that a CASR relating to “slot” management is being developed.



# Person /


3. AULIA:

DAN (ATS requirement and certification)

• He mentioned that some domestic routes are already saturated and need to be reviewed. This could done by implemented new routes or exploiting new technology to reduce separation and thereby increase route/airspace capacity.

• According to him, there is a need to develop new requirement on minimum ground systems on specific route to support reability of communication and surveillance. There is no such identified plan or programme.

4. DAMA, ANGGA, HARI, BUDI, DAN (CNS Infrastructure)

• In preparation to ATN implementation DGCA is conducting technical testing on ATN with Singapore. No specific test report.

• There is a need to improve surveillance capabilities in order to support increasing of traffic density on airspace without radar coverage. A question about any policy to implement ADS-B in the near future. Indonesia will mandated ADS-B out for 2016 and an AIC on the requirements is expected to be published sometime in 2013 (no specific date identified).

• Ervita added that DAO is involved on ADS-B implementation.

5. SRI LESTARI /QORY, DAN (Aeronautical Data Management)

• Aeronautical Information Service in Indonesia now is progressing from AIS to AIM. They are currently implementing ISO 9000 for Aeronautical Data Management.

• Detail programme/planning available and accessible.

6. HERU / MEGA, DAN (Charts and Publication)

• AIS is continuing to publish several maps and charts to complete Indonesia AIP, such as Type A map as required for international aerodrome.

7. BAMBANG P SIGIT / SRI MARDI ISMOYO, (Angkasa Pura II — HO)

• AP II recorded that number of traffic operating within Jakarta reached 1950 / day consisting traffic arrive/depart from Soekarno-Hatta and international overflight.

• In relation to airspace/route density they gave an example of two airspaces Upper Palembang (UP) with 61 flight / hour and Upper Semarang 51 flight/ hour. They don’t know whether those two airspaces already exceeding the capacity or not, however from an ATC point of view it is already exceeding capacity. What the they need to ascertain is the optimum capacity.

• AP II has already re-sectorised their airspaces and the result had been send to DAN (Airspace) for review and approval.

• To manage traffic arrive to Jakarta FIR a new tool is being developed to assist specific positions within JAATS to identify whether incoming traffic to Jakarta FIR will exceeding the capacity at a certain period. AP II is aware that this is not an easy task as there is no real standard or capacity calculated for any route or airspace. They are


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# Person /


having trouble with assimilating flight plan data into the tool as there are so many errors in flight plans received.

• Even though it is planned to commission the tool in 2013, there is no concept on its use, training on flow control or standards.

Summary, Observations and Outcomes

DGCA and AP I/AP II had already started to calculate airspace capacity however they still need further guidance and some example.

DGCA/AP II has reviewed the existing ATS route structure, however there has been no interaction with AP I.

Sectorisation has been reviewed within Jakarta FIR (for Upper Sector) however no indication when it will put into operation as they are awaiting approval from DGCA.

There is a desire (but no plan) in DGCA to regulate an increase minimum Communication and Surveillance reliability depending on the traffic density at a given route/sector.

No information was forthcoming on an operation concept.

A lack of enthusiasm for more reports and an appetite for doing things was observed. This could also partly stem from previous projects that had not delivered the results expected by the stakeholders.

Good disposition towards a joint task force from different organisations to ensure things are managed from start to finish and embedded in the organisation (project and change management)

WORKSHOP 2 - TECHNICAL WORKSHOP

Administration

Location: Secretary of Directorate General Meeting Room 5th Floor, Karsa Builiding-MoT.

The team consisted of the following staff from IndII

Peter Atkins

The meeting was attended by the following personnel.



Name Position Organisation

Ulul Azmi DNP DGCA

Cpt. Ali Nahgi Captain Indonesian Pilot Federation (FPI)

Cpt. Hasfrinsyah Captain Indonesian Pilot Federation (FPI)

Aji Mulyono Inspector Indonesian Pilot Federation (FPI)

M. Imam Maski Head DPC IATCA-Jakarta

Gatot Prianggodo General Secretary DPC IATCA-Jakarta

Moeji S. Executive Secretary IATCA-Jakarta

Robert Triaswanto Supervisor ACC AP II

Rusmanto Manager Area Controller, ATS AP II

Didi Purwadi Manager ATS AP II

Mursit B.U ATC AP II

Djoko Roempoko MLLP AP I


This was the working level workshop following on from an Executive level discussion on the 5th of July to discuss airspace management at a technical level with staff from DGCA, AP I, AP II and other stakeholders including airlines and industrial organisations. It was to allow the consultants to develop project scope and tender specifications for future projects. These future activities will provide the RI with an ATM Concept of Operation, a revised airspace configuration including sectorisation and air route structures, and the tools and methodologies to measure and manage capacity, as required by the ATM Master Plan.

This workshop was undertaken using the following format.

A brief introduction with a PowerPoint presentation by the facilitator to ensure the participants understood the aims and objects, and that the objectives of IndII project 289 and #290 were understood and:

The facilitator led a structured discussion and attempted to involve all participates so both the facilitator and the other participants understood the issues and problems regarding Air Space and Capacity Management.

The facilitator summed up the outcomes and thanked the participants.


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Discussion Points:

1. Airspace Management:

The integrated nature of air routes, sectorisation and capacity issues were explored and discussed. Participants had the opportunity to explain technical and non technical issues relating to Air Traffic Management and Capacity.

2. Concept Of Operation:

The facilitator led a discussion on the nature of the current ATM Master Plan and the relationship between it and other documents as well as some perceived gaps at a policy level.

The following are some brief points extracted from the discussion:

1. Air Routes and Sectorisation

Robert- AP II:

In relation to ATS Capacity, there are many issues that are a problem and lead to a lack of capacity. These range from a lack of systems for flow management, no tools or methodology to measure capacity and demand, and a lack of training. There are long term plans but what is needed is a short term solution to some of the problems. One solution which they are keep to progress quickly is the simple resectorisation of upper airspace to solve a sector overlod situation. This plan needs to be approved by DGCA.

Communication and surveillance systems

Waya Fadini-DGCA

Waya questioned how to develop metrics for effective communication and the standards against communications. Also, which is the best infrastructure for communication and surveillance for any given airspace volume.

Andri-DGCA

Andri stated that a problem was the technology within modern aircraft is more sophisticated than the technologies within the ground based system

Training

Hasfrinsyah- Indonesia Pilot Federation/FPI

Inadequate facilities for airspace management whilst input from aviation is all about technology. For the application of these technologies training is required and he thought that was a point there better training and procedures could greatly assist in better capacity. How this was to be achieved seems to be a big issue. For example, he believes that control tower staff would benefit from more training to assist in their



ability to manage the traffic effectively. Training, procedures, and technology should be “walking together”.

2. Flexible Air Space

There is some good co-ordination with the Military on some routes. However it would be much better if air routes could cross military airspace as it would be much more efficient


Industry representatives did interact with DGCA and AP I staff present.

A focus of industry for air routes is to make it simple and to be able to use the technology they have (Lion Air). They would trade some additional track miles if it means less delay. The air routes are far too complicated.

The resectorisation in the short term of Jakarta upper airspace should be expedited as it seems to be a safety issue. Sector loading figures for upper airspace at some times of the day are, prime facie, far in excess of the capacity of the Both DGCA and AP II may need some support in terms of capacity modelling and metrics for this to be approved.

Flow control was seen to be a priority. Staff are keen to obtain flow control skills and certification. They are developing their own software for pre departure and Enroute flow control.

Strategic flow control by way of “slot” allocation was seen not to be working. Both ATC and industry agree on this although they have opposite views on why.

An interesting systems engineering view by the federation of air pilots representative. This is not the usual view and should be encouraged.

A common view that whatever the technology, proper training and experience was the key to operating a high levels of demand.

An observation by the facilitator was that although air routes, sectorisation, and the ability to model and measure capacity were components of increasing capacity, they are only a part of the solution. Other issues are outside of the remit of this scoping study.

An observation by the facilitator was that the participants were keen to see action rather than another report as an outcome of this exercise.

An observation was the keen discussion and participation from all those present and our thanks to them for their active participation.


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WORKSHOP 3 — DISCUSSION WITH AP II MANAGEMENT AND STAFF

Administration

Location: meeting room ATC Tower, Angkasa Pura II

The project team arranged a meeting with key ATC stakeholders in Angkasa Pura 2 at Soekarno-Hatta airport. This activity was a part of the IndII Project 289 and #290 and was intended to meet and discuss air route, ATC sectorisation, and capacity issues, problems and solutions. It was also intended as an intelligence gathering exercise to facilitate project #290 capacity study.

The team consisted of the following staff from IndII

Peter Atkins

John McCarthy

Novaro Martodihardjo

Annetly Ngabito

Soraya

The meeting was well attended by ATC and other staff from AP II.

Name Position

Bapak Saryono General Manager of ATC

Azmi Jamalullail ATS Operation Coordinator

Rusmanto Manager Area Control Centre

Budi Hendro Setiyono Deputy General Manager of ATS Operational

Arief Widyantoro ACC Controller-team of JAATS

Didi Purwadi Manager ATS

Anton Krishna Caputra ATS Automation Junior Manager

Isyar ATS Regional Operation

Yuda ACC Jakarta

Ali Sodikin ATC

Muhamad Sobirin ATC PBN Manager

Rahman ATC Regional office Indonesia

Robert Triaswanto ACC Supervisor.




This meeting started with introduction from IndII regarding the purpose of the meeting then continued with presentation from ATC, led by Bapak Saryono (General Manager ATC) regarding the current state of staff and equipment at AP II and regarding issues and current plans for improvement of ATM within the Jakarta FIR. Key points of the PowerPoint presentation are listed below:

ATS Personnel at AP II.

Working hours

Runway characteristics and runway & taxiways characteristics

ATS Services Area have two runway: two flight right and two flight left (25 and 07). The runway is about 3 km with runway capacity/hour is 52 until 74 (in peak season).

Presented traffic movement graphics (2-8 July 2012), 1118 landing excluding Halim Perdana Kusuma Airport, Halim itself has 150 landing.

Presented ARR & Dep. Traffic Movement graphics, there are more than 1900 traffic hour/day flying over 245 height including Aceh and Pekan Baru. Each data available in each area.

Facility, include:

1. Communication, VHF/HF Ground to Air, AFTN, Ground to ground (Airband), VCCS (VSAp), Telecommunication.

2. Data movement of aircraft 2000-2001

3. Example traffic movement/ day, 52/hour

4. Forecast traffic movement (data 2003-2010), 2010-2030 only 3% and 2010-2012: 11%

5. Comparison of flight schedules, July 2011-July 2012 average increase of 7%. On July 8, drop on the chart occur due to the school holiday.

Problem of Soekarno-Hatta Indonesia Airport (SHIA) was over capacity

Movement based on aircraft type

SHIA Traffic Services Program:

1. ATS Program (1)

a. Engineering: ATS human resources, AWOS-MET

b. ADC & APP-TMA:

Implementation the new sector and procedures (TWR) etc. There is no study about this, but shortly (23rd August) will be open runway. Operations will run on September. PBN is a business that has been done on July 2, 2012 but still a step by step. The problem found are not


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all aircraft operate in Indonesia having ability to implement the new sector, for that ATS will provide training for them.

A-SMGCS

RNAV-I, barriers are not a hundred percent done cleaning for compliance, within a few days to do SOP, training and practice.

Independent Departure Approach Parallel Runway (2012)

The New Sector & Procedures for Departure only (2013)

ATS Human Resources

c. ACC-En Route

Developing ATFM basic (jetfast)

RLS on Route B470, G579 by using surveillance 40 miles.

Re structurisation route (M 635, M 774, L 504)

Implementation of RNP-10 (UM & UK)

Re structurisation sector (2013), expected from 7 sectors to 11 sectors

ATS Human Resources, expected additional 200 people as air traffic human resource

Improving of facilities and services: ADS-CPDLC (may be implemented in 2013).

d. ATS/BO and SYSFOR

Developing E-AIS/Briefing Offices

A-MHS-ATN Network Systems already installed in SHA and current status was trial connection with Singapura, next week will try to have a connection with Melbourne.

New Flight Plan Format, new format capable to 130 hours in advance but Indonesia will using 150 hours, the operator behavior is not stable yet.

Up grading data billing systems (2013), will make separate systems to billing and statistics

ATS Human Resources, expected come from FPTI

2. Master Plan Grand Design Soekarno-Hatta Airport

This was the physical development plan for the aerodrome with the main point being the proposal for a third runway that should increase capacity.



Question & Response:

1. Ali Sodikin, ATC

ATC is currently anticipating the addition of a flight with a project designed to 2013.

Azmi, ATS operation coordinator

There are many more flights handled by ATC than are theoretically possible. The runway theoretic capacity is 49/52 and in fact there were 72 flight movements per hour at peak times. This will become a greater problem between 16 August and 3 Sep this year as there 200 extra flight planned by 3 airlines.

2. Arief, ACC Controller:

Commented that the capacity issue can, in part, be blamed on airlines as they do accept slot times they have no intention of abiding by. They accept an early slot and delay their flight plan causing overload at peak times. Azmi, ATS operation coordinator

He requested aid by way of tools and assistance to guide the resectorisation process.

3. Arief, ACC Controller:

What is the next step will IndII do after this meeting is completed.

Asked for assistance with tools for capacity and sectorisation and training in those tools.

How to make the airlines adhere to the schedule they made, what steps can IndII take to help cope with the planned delay that resulted in traffic?

Pak Novaro provided an answer that one way to overcome this is to reject any delay that comes with a regulation based on the CISR because AP I has the right to reject for the sake of discipline and based on existing legislation (CISR), strict to the regulation.


There are few support resources to plan and undertake major changes such as flow control, capacity studies, and resectorisation. Mostly, line personnel provide their time and effort after their normal shift.

Whilst not in our scope of work it is noted that, prima facie, a significant part of the capacity problem can be solved by regulation, letters of agreement, and enforcement of agreed slot and departure times.

An effort has been made to resectorise from 7 to 11 upper sectors. This is based on dividing current sectors along discrete air routes to divide the work and risk. This has


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not yet been approved by DGCA, as there is insufficient justification or a safety case to support it as yet. (Note our previous commitment to DGCA to provide advice on safety case processes, which should assist this.)

Note the above point and a common them for tools and training on capacity and sectorisation. The team undertook to provide some advice as soon as possible regarding the sectorisation and other capacity/demand tools and training, as well as ensuring it will be scoped within the (new) project.

The team provided a list of data they would be interested in gathering to support the scoping study. AP II undertook to discuss this with the team on a convenient day in week beginning 30 July and provide whatever information they could to support the scoping study.

An observation was the keen discussion and participation from AP II staff and our thanks to them for their active participation.

WORKSHOP 4 — INDIVIDUAL PRESENTATIONS AND REVIEW OF SCOPE OF WORK

Early drafts of the Scopes of Work were provided to the key stakeholders for comment before finalisation. The stakeholders and their comments are shown in the following table:-

Stakeholder Organisation Response

Ibu (Fifi) Arfiyanti Samad DGCA Secretariat None

Novie Riyanto and staff Sub-Directorate of Air Navigation

Signified that the SOWs were satisfactory.

Wisnu Daryono and staff Sub-Directorate of Air Navigation

Comments provided

Pak Maskon and Staff AP II Comments provided

AP II None



REFERENCES

The following documents have been referenced as they were useful resources to guide the scoping study and assist in formulating the Scope of Work. In addition documents have been referenced that may be useful for any entity responding to the scope of work or in entering into the work against the scope of work.

ATS. (1992). ATS Planning Manual, Part 2. Methods of Application Employed by ATS. Air Traffic Services (ATS).

ATS Jakarta. (2012). Air Traffic Services, Soekarno-Hatta Airport.

ATSP FG & CNS/ATM Focused Team. (1999). Airline Metric Concepts for Evaluating ATS Performance.

CANSO. (2012). Air Navigation Service Provider Performance Results 2006-2010. Canso ATM Report & Directory 2012.

CANSO. (2012). Accelerating Air Traffic Management Efficiency: A Call to Industry. Feb 2012. CANSO & Boeing.

Daily Aircraft Movement 00.00 — 12.59 And 13.00-23.59 April 2012.

De Nijs LLJ, Thijssen BA, Ruigrok RCJ, The Use of Aircraft Intent Information in the Ground ATM System: “Initial Results of Real-Time Human-In-The-Loop Simulation Experiments”. FAA-Eurocontrol Workshop on “The Impact of ATM/CNS Evolution on Avionics and Ground Systems Architectures”, June 2002, Toulouse France, June 2002 Online: http://www.intentproject.org/papers/Paper_DeNijs_Toulouse.pdf

Direktorat Jenderal Perhubungan Udara. (2005). Cetak Biru: Transportasi Udara 2005-2024 (Konsep akhir)/PDF version. Departemen Perhubungan: Direktorat Jenderal Perhubungan Udara.

Direktorat Jenderal Perhubungan Udara. (2005). Cetak Biru: Transportasi Udara 2005-2024 (Konsep akhir)/Word doc. version. Departemen Perhubungan: Direktorat Jenderal Perhubungan Udara.

Dorfman, S., DeArmon, J., Devlin, C. J. & Williams, S. (2009). Integrated RNAV Procedure Design: City-Pair Analysis. 28th Digital Avionics Systems Conference October 25-29, 2009. The MITRE Corporation.

EUROCONTROL. (2003). Manual For Airspace Planning. European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation (EUROCONTROL).

EUROCONTROL. (2003). Manual For Airspace Planning, Vol. 2. European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation (EUROCONTROL).

http://www.intentproject.org/papers/Paper_DeNijs_Toulouse.pdf


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REFERENCES

EUROCONTROL. (2010). Airspace Concept Handbook for the Implementation of Performance Based Navigation (PBN), EUROCONTROL Edition 2.0. European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation (EUROCONTROL).

EUROCONTROL. (2010). Guideline, The ASM Handbook, Airspace Management Handbook for the Application of the Concept of the Flexible Use of Airspace. European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation (EUROCONTROL).

EUROCONTROL. (2012). European Airspace Design Methodology - Guidelines, Part 1. European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation (EUROCONTROL).

EUROCONTROL. (2012). European Route Network Improvement Plan, Part 1. European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation (EUROCONTROL).

Fedeau, A.D. (2011). Application for Operations Approval for Lion Air (MLI), RNP AR Operations. Lion Air.

Federal Aviation Administration. (2005). Airspace Management Handbook. Version 2.2 December 2005. The Mitre Corporation.

Federal Aviation Administration. (2007). Concept of Operations for the Next Generation Air Transportation System. Draft 5, Version 1.2. February 2008. Joint Planning and Development Office.

Gupta S & Bertsimas D. (2011). Multistage Air Traffic Flow Management under Capacity Uncertainty: A Robust and Adaptive Optimisation Approach. August 2011. MIT, research funded by NSF Grant and a grant from Lincoln Labs.

Gupta S. (2012). A Tractable Optimization Framework for Air Traffic Flow Management Addressing Fairness, Collaboration and Stochasticity (PhD Thesis, MIT). June 2012.

Hilburn, B, PhD (2004). Cognitive Complexity in Air Traffic Control: A Literature Review. Feb 2004. Center for Human Performance Research (NL)

ICAO Doc 9613. (2008). Performance-based Navigation (PBN) Manual. 3rd Ed. International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO).

ICAO Doc 9689. (1984). Air Traffic Services Planning Manual. 1st (Provisional) Ed. International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO).

ICAO Doc 9689. (1984). Air Traffic Services Planning Manual, Part II (Methods Of Application Employed By Air Traffic Services). International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO).

ICAO Doc 9689. (1984). Air Traffic Services Planning Manual, Part III (Facilities Required By ATS). International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO).



ICAO Doc 9689. (1984). Air Traffic Services Planning Manual, Part IV (ATS Organization, Administration and Facility Management). International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO).

ICAO Doc 9689. (1984). Air Traffic Services Planning Manual, Part V (Term & References). International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO).

ICAO Doc 9854. (2005). Global Air Traffic Management Operational Concept. International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO).

ICAO Doc 9859. (2009). Safety Management Manual (SMM). 2nd Ed. International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO).

ICAO Doc 9859. (2012). Safety Management Manual (SMM). 3rd Ed (advanced edition). International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO).

ICAO. (2010). Annex 6, Part 1 - Operation of Aircraft, International Commercial Air Transport Aeroplanes. 9th Ed. International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO).

ICAO. (2011). Sixth Meeting of the Southeast Asia, Sub-Regional ADS-B Implementation Working Group (Sea ADS-B WG/6). International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO).

ISO27k Forum. (2010). ISO 2700 Change Management for IT Security.

Jägare, P. (2011). Airspace Sectorisation Using Constraint Programming. Department of Information Technology.

Jaurena, R. (2009). Guide for the Application of a Common Methodology To Estimate Airport and ATC Sector Capacity for the SAM Region. Regional Project: ICAO RLA/06/901. Lima, Peru, 6 to 17 July 2009. International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO).

JETFAST Team. (2012). The Concept of Airspace Upper Control Jakarta Restructuring, Bahasa.

JETFAST Team. (2012). The Concept of Airspace Upper Control Jakarta Restructuring, English.

Karyd, A. & Ljung, N. (2010). Review of Existing Documentation: Bali Airport Development Project Final Report. Indonesia Infrastructure Initiative (IndII).

Karyd, A. & Ljung, N. (2011). Bali Airport Development Project Deliverable 4: Consolidated Report, Draft Final Report. Indonesia Infrastructure Initiative (IndII).

Karyd, A. & Ljung, N. (2011). Bali Airport Development, Diagnostic Report On Ngurah Rai Airport Capacity Final Report. Indonesia Infrastructure Initiative (IndII).


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MATSC, AP. UPG Upper Sector: Review and Proposed Airspace Restructurisation, Bahasa. Angkasa Pura.

MATSC, AP. UPG Upper Sector: Review and Proposed Airspace Restructurisation, English. Angkasa Pura.

Miquel, T. (1999). A Theoretical Assessment of Sector Capacity Improvement Due TO Asas Concept. CENA.

Mott MacDonald ltd. (2011). National Strategy for the Implementation of ASEAN Open Sky Policy Stage 2, Final Report. Technical Report. Indonesia Infrastructure Initiative (IndII).

Off Air Routes Planning Manual (OARP). (2012). Part 1, Introduction and General Rules.

Pak-Poy, C.M. (2011). "Aeronautical Data for Navigation, Airspace Management Systems & Performance Based Navigation (PBN)". Strategic Airspace Pty Ltd.

Rebollo, JJ & Cruz, A. (2009). Hybrid Demand and Capacity Balance Model for the Future air Traffic Management concept of Operations: Paper at 8th USA/Europe Air Traffic Management Research and Development Seminar (ATM2009).

Roadmap PBN Implementation in Indonesia, PPT Presentation, DGCA, 2011

Soekarno — Hatta Intl’ Airport Branch of PT Angkasa II & IATCA Jakarta Branch of Indonesia Air Traffic Controller Association. Jakarta Airspace Management & Traffic Flow Management.

SESAR Consortium. (2008). SESAR Definition Phase: The Concept of Operations at a Glance. SESAR Consortium.

SESAR Consortium. (2009). European Air Traffic Management Master Plan. Ed 1, 30 Marcy 2009. SESAR Consortium, European Commission, EUROCONTROL.

SOW for Taiwan CAA Project, The Overall Planning of Airspace And Route Adjustment for Taipei FIR.

Steinbicker, M., Miller, B. & Miller, T. (2006). RNP SAAAR. Federal Aviation Administration.

Tomomi, H. (2007). RNAV Training for ATC 2007, Sample. Japan: Air Traffic Control Association Japan.

Voss, W. R. & Hoffman, J. (2000). Analytical Identification of Airport and Airspace Capacity Constraints. 3rd USA/Europe Air Traffic Management R&D Seminar Napoli, June 2000.



Wahlgren, B. A., Adolfsson, L.G., Albér, P., Holkenberg, H., Åberg, M., Rollén, J. & Karyd, A. (2011). Air Traffic Management Master Plan For Indonesia, Final Report. Indonesia Infrastructure Initiative (IndII).

Williams, A., Bradford, S., Liang, D., Post, W., Borkenhagen U. & Pomeret, J.M. (2007). Common Metrics Framework for ATM Performance Assessment and Monitoring.

Wilson, L. & Moore, J. (2010). Airspace and Air Route Review. Australia: Airservices Australia.

Yousefi, A., Hoffman, R., Lowther, M., Khorrami§, B. & Herbert Hackney. (2009). Trigger Metrics for Dynamic Airspace Configuration. American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA).

Zhao YF, Zhang D, Yue RT, Wang HY. (2011). Method to Analyse air Traffic Situation Based on Air Traffic Complexity Map. Paper at 9th USA/Europe Air Traffic Management Research and Development Seminar (ATM2011).


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