02/04/2013 ESPN The Magazine 41

Overall TD%

FGsTDs Nonscoring possessions

Patr

iots

Sain

tsBr

onco

sSe

ahaw

ksPa

cker

sRe

dski

nsGi

ants

Falc

ons

Pant

hers

49er

sRa

vens

Bucs

Cow

boys

Texa

nsCo

ltsBe

ngal

sCh

arge

rsBe

ars

Viki

ngs

Bills

Lion

sSt

eele

rsTi

tans

Ram

sD

olph

ins

Brow

nsJe

tsEa

gles

Raid

ers

Jagu

ars

Card

inal

sCh

iefs

0

200

150

100

50

10%

20%

30%

40%

0%

25

75

125

175

225

TD%

Possessions

185 190

188

170

186

183

176

175

175 178

193

193

180

202

180

195

180

195

182

190

197

185 188

182 186

191 194

184 188

196

208

186

Ten of the past 15 Super Bowl winners ranked in the top 10 in the league in touchdown percentage—converting drives into TDs. The 49ers (24.7%, 10th in NFL) just eke in, while the Ravens (22.8%, 11th) are right behind. Advantage: San Francisco. Barely.

KEEPINGSCORE

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THE LONG DRIVE TO BOURBON STREETThe RAveNS AND 49eRS hAD A ToTAL oF 371 poSSeSSioNS ThiS SeASoN. eAch oNe oF Them wAS meRe pRAcTice To execuTe The peRFecT DRive oN SupeR SuNDAy iN New oRLeANS.

c o v e R i L L u S T R AT i o N B y S e a n m c c a b ec o v e R p h o T o B y T O m H a U c K S L u g i L L u S T R AT i o N B y L U K e S H U m a n

AnquAn BoLDin,Ravens receiver

42 ESPN The Magazine 02/04/2013 i l lustrat ion by hyPErakT pReviouS SpReAD: KiRBy Lee/imAge oF SpoRT/uSA ToDAy SpoRTS; ThiS SpReAD FRom LeFT: BeN LieBeNBeRg/Ap imAgeS; RicK oSeNToSKi/Ap imAgeS

02/04/2013 ESPN The Magazine 43

1 ToRREy SmiTh 21-yARD CATChon this play, QB Joe Flacco showed why he’s much better throwing to the right side (7.8 yards per pass, 63% completion rate) than the left (5.1, 49%).

5 GoRE 11-yARD RunThe Niners used two extra o-linemen here. with seven linemen and needing five or fewer yards, they got a first down or TD on 11 of 15 plays.

3 AnquAn BoLDin ThREE-yARD CATChBoldin is Flacco’s favorite target on third down, but the wR converted just 16 of 34 targets into first downs, which is slightly below league average.

3 GoRE 26-yARD RunThe packers put just six in the box on this play, and gore gashed them. his 6.6 ypc against six-man boxes was second among RBs with 100 carries.

2 RAy RiCE FouR-yARD RunBaltimore’s run o is strongest between the tackles: The Ravens averaged 4.55 ypc and got stuffed for a loss or no gain a league-low 11% of the time.

4 miChAEL CRABTREE 14-yARD CATChFrom week 11 on, crabtree had 41 catches (7th in NFL), 595 yards (7th) and five receiving TDs (T-6th). with Alex Smith as QB, he was 41st in targets.

4 BoLDin 12-yARD CATChBoldin has some of the surest hands in the NFL: he dropped only three balls all season, a 95.6% rate, eighth among wRs with at least 60 catches.

2 CoLin KAEPERniCK 16-yARD Run After becoming the starter in week 11, Kaepernick gained 8.4 ypc on designed QB runs, including read options. That’s better than even Rg3’s average (7.1).

5 RiCE 27-yARD TD CATChThis was Rice’s only receiving TD in 2012, but he’s essential to Baltimore’s passing game. he had 61 catches (2nd among RBs) and 478 yards (4th).

1 FRAnK GoRE FiVE-yARD RunThe 49ers excel at midlength gains. San Francisco led the NFL with 1.49 second-level ypc—yards gained between five and 10 yards past the line.

BIG-GAME PLAYS, BIG-GAME PLAYERSThe perfect drive, in many ways, isn’t really much of a drive at all. it’s a 90-yard TD run or a streaking bomb down the sideline. one play, six points.

But that’s the exception rather than the rule. The harbaugh brothers have different definitions of the perfect drive. For Jim’s 49ers, it’s long and demoraliz-ing to the defense—a seamless melding of QB colin Kaepernick’s speed on the edges and his dropped-out-of-the-sky touch on deep balls. in between, it’s Frank gore slashing behind a mass of o-linemen. For John’s Ravens, the perfect drive focuses on running back Ray Rice getting touches between the tackles and in the flat. A Joe Flacco to Torrey Smith deep shot keeps the safeties from crowding the line.

with those parameters in mind, we slogged through hundreds of drives this season and found the perfect examples of the perfect ones for both the 49ers and Ravens. Their challenge: replicating them on Feb. 3.—AARon SChATZ, FooTBALL ouTSiDERS

1st & goal no gain on run

penalty

Run

pass

Attempt with no gain

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KEy

StaRtS at SF 7

1st & 102nd & 52nd & 8 1st & 101st & 101st & 104th & 11st & 102nd & goal

2nd & 9

2nd & 193rd & 15

GAmE Dec. 23, 2012, vs. giantsSiTuATion 3:15 left in 2nd quarterSCoRE Ravens leading 17-7DRiVE DETAiLS 7 plays, 76 yards

tORREy SmIth, WRheight 6’0” weight 205

FRaNK GORE, RBheight 5’9” weight 2 17

GAmE Jan. 12, 2013, vs. packersSiTuATion 11:28 left in 4th quarterSCoRE 49ers leading 38-24DRiVE DETAiLS 11 plays, 93 yards

The 49ers ranked 15th against two-Te, one-back sets (5.4 ypp), which the Ravens ran only 15% of the time. Look for Dennis pitta and ed Dickson together.

According to DvoA,* the Baltimore o ranked 28th in red zone passing but fourth in running. The San Francisco D: 26th vs. the pass, second against the run.

Ray Rice averaged only 1.3 yards after contact (fifth worst among RBs with 200 carries), while the 49ers allowed an NFL-low 1.21 yards after contact.

RAVENS offENSE AGAINSt 49ERS dEfENSE

The Ravens allowed only a 13.5 QBR when they pressured the QB (fifth in NFL). colin Kaepernick, though, is solid under duress (46.0 QBR, ninth).

The Niners should stay away from “11 personnel” (three wRs): They gained only 5.2 ypp (27th in NFL), and the Ravens D allowed just 4.8 ypp (fourth in NFL).

The 49ers love to ground and pound—their 5.1 ypc was third in the NFL—and Baltimore’s D stuffed RBs for a loss or no gain on an NFL-low 14% of carries.

49ERS offENSE AGAINSt RAVENS dEfENSE

3rd & 2 2nd & 52nd & 6 1st & 10 1st & 101st & 10 1st & 10

StaRtS at BaltImORE 24

* Football outsiders’ DvoA rating measures a team’s success on every play compared with a baseline adjusted for situation and opponent.

1

1

4

4

3

3

2

2

5

5

All stats from regular season

44 ESPN The Magazine 02/04/2013

Ray Rice would be wise to run toward the left sideline, which is about the only weakness of the 49ers’ fourth-ranked rush D. Frank gore—and, for that matter, colin Kaepernick—should be wary of running left against the Ravens.

Aldon Smith could be the key for the 49ers to win Super Bowl xLvii. The linebacker is among the best at pressuring QBs, and since 1982, when the sack became an official stat, the team with more sacks in the Super Bowl is 20–7.

Kaepernick would be the youngest QB to win a Super Bowl since Ben Roethlisberger in 2006.

The NFc ruled the regular season (see below). Since 1970 the conference with the better mark has won the Super Bowl 68% of the time.

49ers great Joe montana remembers a moment in Super Bowl xxiii against cincinnati: “i got to the stadium so early that i was hungry, so i ate my Snickers bar before the game—instead of at halftime, like i normally did. And in the fourth quarter, on the drive to win the game, i almost passed out. it was so loud. i was hyperventilating, yelling at the top of my lungs. i was using every bit of oxygen i had.” —as told to Seth Wickersham

FoR moRE qB SuPER BowL SECRETS, Go To ESPn.Com/nFL

dIAMEtRIcALLY oPPoSEd

LIVING oN thE EdGE

fAR fRoM AVERAGE

BLuE StAtE

SuPER SEcREt

ALL NumBeRS ARe yARDS peR cARRy.

DATA By pRo FooTBALL FocuS (miN. 400 pASS RuSh SNApS).

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49ersDefense

Left sideline

6.0

4.8

5.3

3.8

4.1

4.0

3.6

3.0

4.4

4.5Left Middle Right Right sidelineLeft sideline

5.3

3.7

4.0

3.8

5.4

4.3

3.2

4.5

6.5

4.2Left Middle Right Right sideline

49ersFrank Gore

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

Colin Kaepernick

Joe Flacco

Average sB-winning QB

Age regular- season

wins

Post-season

wins

experience

39%AFC won

61%nFC won

Von miller, DENCameron Wake, MIAGeno atkins, CINCharles Johnson, CARDerrick morgan, TENChris long, STLaldon Smith, SFDemarcus Ware, DALJohn abraham, ATLGreg hardy, CAR

20%13% 19%18%17%16%15%14%

19.7%

16.2%

15.8%

15.2%

14.1%

14%

13.9%

13.8%

13.4%

13.4%

Pressure percentage

rAveNsRay Rice

rAveNsDefense

5

1

6

0

4

2

3

3

2

4

1

5

0

6

2012RESultS