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snam.it
2013 – 2016 Strategy & Targets March 13th, 2013
2
Playing a Leading Role in Integrating the European Gas Market
Carlo Malacarne Chief Executive Officer
Key Priorities of a Sustainable Growth Strategy
3
Low
risk
pro
file.
..
... in the context of strict financial discipline
Execute profitable and high quality capex program Leveraging strong track record in delivery
Facilitate European network integration
Optimising investments leveraging a supportive European framework
Preserve solid capital structure
Disciplined investment plan along with sustainable and attractive return policy
Deliver efficiency
Focused on pursuing operational and financial outperformance
Drive value creation for all stakeholders
Building the conditions to target superior returns
Agenda
4
Business Environment
Operational Performance & Financials
Snam Business Development
Final Remarks
Operational Performance & Financials
Snam Business Development
Business Environment
Final Remarks
Agenda
5
EU Energy Policy: goals and provisions
• Ownership Unbundling (OU)
• Independent Transmission Operator (ITO)
• Independent System Operator (ISO)
• Entry-Exit system • Market-based balancing regime • Gas Exchanges
• ACER and ENTSOG establishment • Coordination of network development
plans • Common rules (EU network codes)
• Diversification of supply sources • Bi-directional flows • Interconnection between national markets • Infrastructure flexibility (N-1) 6
Unbundling
Market Liquidity
Harmonisation & Cooperation
Infrastructure Development
COMPETITIVENESS
SUSTAINABILITY SECURITY OF SUPPLY
Source: European Commission, Regulatory Proposal: ‘Strategic guidelines for trans-European energy infrastructure’, October 2011
Interconnection plan of Baltic energy market
Southern Gas Corridor (Caspian region)
South – North gas interconnection (Central Eastern and South Eastern Europe)
South - North gas interconnections (South Western Europe)
…Italy situated at the crossroad of energy corridors
1.
2.
3.
Promoting infrastructure development along main routes…
1
4
3
2
1
2
3
EU Energy Policy: priority corridors
4
7
PSV
NBP TTF
BAU
NCG ZEE
PEG N
Italian Regulation: evolving framework to support market integration
8
• Implementation of 3rd Gas Directive (Legislative Decree 93/11)
• Ruling on “Certification procedures” (National Authority Resolution 153/11)
• Ownership Unbundling (Liberalization Decree 1/2012 and implementing regulation)
• Active participation in ENTSOG for rules harmonization and network code development
• Coordination of development plans (TYNDP)
• Storage services extended to industrial and power customers
• New balancing regime (1st Dec. 2011)
• Cooperation with Exchange Operators (GME)
• Entry-Exit system since 2001
• Enhancement of storage capacity • Incentive for new investments
(Dlgs. 93/11): reverse flow and interconnection
Unbundling
Market Liquidity
Harmonisation & Cooperation
Infrastructure Development
50
150
250
350
450
550
650
European Gas Market
Domestic production
Net import
(*) Countries: EU 27
Source: OECD/IEA – Special Report World Energy Outlook 2012
[ bcm ] CAGR 10 – 30 ~ 0.5%
CAGR 10 – 30 ~ 2.0%
Nigeria 5.1
Algeria 4.5 Libya
1.5 Qatar 25.0
Netherlands 1.1
Norway 2.1 Russia
44.6
(*) Trillion cubic metres Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2012
Main gas reserves supplying Europe* Gas demand in Europe*
Egypt 2.2
9
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2012 2015E 2018E 2020E 2025E
Gas Demand CAGR 12 – 25
~1.0%
Domestic production 2025E Additional
import from diversified sources
2012
~90
~20 68
Source: Italian Ministry of Economic Development and SRG estimates
[ bcm ] Import CAGR 12 – 25
~2.0%
Italian Gas Market
10
Net import Gas Flows
Transit
Infrustructure Operators in the European Gas Market
Countries & Institutions Energy Policy Objectives to foster cross border network projects
GAS MARKET
Security of supply
Diversification of sources
Increased flexibility needs EU Regulators Harmonization of the European Regulatory Framework
INFRASTRUCTURE OPERATORS
Technical know how Partnerships
Solid capital structure
11
Operational Performance & Financials
Snam Business Development
Business Environment
Final Remarks
Agenda
12
• Investments • International Growth • New Potential Services
• Increase capacity for:
– Modulation services and peak demand control
– New services for industrial customers
• Optimize utilization of regasification plant offering integrated services
• Develop new balancing services to enhance flexibility
• Develop infrastructure supporting gas swaps in Europe
• Selected projects to meet capacity requirements and supply source diversification
• Facilitate technical and commercial swap among different supply sources
• Development of reverse flow capacity to create conditions for the gas transit to European markets
• Focus on international strategic assets which will help further gas infrastructure integration across Europe
Investment Priorities
13
Strengthen security, flexibility and service quality
of the Italian gas system
Create conditions for developing a Southern
European gas hub
Increase liquidity of the gas
market
TRANSPORT & LNG STORAGE
2013
Investment Plan 2013-2016
14
Mainly TIGF
2012-2016 RAB GROWTH: CAGR +3.4%
2016E EBITDA* from associates: +70% vs 2012
* Snam pro-quota interests in non consolidated associates
4.6
6.2
Organic Capex in Italy External Growth: M&A in Europe
0.7
2013-2016 2013-2016 2017-2020
[ €bn ]
To complete projects under construction in transport & storage
businesses
Consolidated Capex Plan in Italy 2013-2016
15 * RAB evolution calculated assuming annual inflation rate in 2013-2016 of 2% and on the basis of the current approved regulatory frameworks
2013 2014 - 2016
€ 4.9 bn € 1.3 bn
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E
CAGR 3.4%
RAB with base remuneration
RAB incentivized
30% 36%
[ €bn ]
3.7 1.0 1.5
Not Incentivized Incentivized
[ €bn ]
Storage Transport Distribution
€ 6.2 billion
Spending
Consolidated RAB* Capex breakdown*
∼75% ∼25%
South-North Developments and Reverse Flow…
16
+8 Bcm
Import Export
Main Projects • Po Valley Infrastructure (~450 km )
• Empowerment/construction of compressor stations (~100 MW)
• Metering point in Masera
Length: ~1,150 km Installed power capacity: ~170 MW
PLANNED PROJECT
CAPACITY AT ENTRY POINTS FROM SOUTH
5
18
Passo Gries - Connectionwith North Europe
Tarvisio - Connection withNorth East Europe
>2016
338 ~350
2012 2016
…for an Italian Gas Hub, with an Ample Supply Diversification
Import transport capacity
Expected export
capacity beyond
2016
40
18
Passo Gries - Connectionwith North Europe
Tarvisio - Connection withNorth East Europe
Fully Operational by end 2015
Italian export capacity
[ Mscm/d ]
Existing import transport capacity Import transport capacity under construction
Expected capacity
development
[ Mscm/d ]
* Maximum daily export capacity is 40 Mscm/d
*
*
17
~380
0
5
10
15
20
0
100
200
300
400
New Storage Capacity to facilitate Gas System Liquidity
18
2013 – 2016 CAPEX PLAN CONSISTENT WITH MINISTERIAL DECREES
4.0 10.7
13.5 275 314
2012 2016E
Modulation Capacity for Residential/Regasification
Peak Capacity Modulation Capacity for industrial users
9.5
2.4
8.3
MINERBIO
FIUME TRESTE
SETTALA SABBIONCELLO
RIPALTA
[ Mscm/d ] [ bcm]
SERGNANO
+ ~14%
+ ~25%
ALFONSINE (I Phase)
BORDOLANO
Distribution: selected investments to increase profitability in a mature business
19
2012 2016E
Redelivery points (millions)
5.9 ~6.7
+ ~14%
NETWORK EXPANSION:
• New connections (~ 1,300 km) on existing distribution network and development of new distribution network
SMART METERING: • ~1.1 million smart meters • IT systems development to support smart
metering process
MAIN PROJECTS
* Considering the current perimeter of consolidation
• To grow the activities maintaining the current capital employed also leveraging on financial partnership
• To maximize operational efficiency through: ‾ Optimization of concession portfolio ‾ Economies of scale
• To pursue additional revenues through operational services to third-party networks
Italgas Business Development to unlock Additional Value
• Industry concentration process (177 new concession areas)
• Higher degree of transparency: clear and standard rules to protect invested capital
ITALGAS TOMORROW
• Concession in municipalities: • 1,435 Italgas • 148 Associates
• 7.4 mln clients served
(33% of the Italian market) • ~6 mln Italgas • 1.4 mln Associates
New Legislative Framework fostering
ITALGAS TODAY
Management of 40% of Italian redelivery points
20
Operational Performance & Financials
Snam Business Development
Business Environment
Final Remarks
Agenda
21
• Investments • International Growth
• New Potential Services
Snam’s International Growth Strategy
• Main player in European gas
infrastructure
KEY PILLARS OUR TOOLS
• Integrated approach
• Phased expansion programme along
with strict financial discipline
• Risk diversification
• Leverage leadership in terms of RAB, market cap and on
strategic geographical platform • Extensive know-how in managing high quality integrated gas
infrastructure assets
• Develop cross-border interconnections • Create platforms to foster development of integrated storage,
regasification and transport assets in Europe • Facilitate the interconnection of gas pools
• Preserve solid balance sheet • Sharing financial commitments with partners • JVs and bolt-on acquisitions • Increasing risk-adjusted target returns
• Varied geographical and regulatory risk • Complementary investments cycles
22
Implementing International Growth in European Gas Infrastructures
23
Strategic alliance with Fluxys
TIGF assets
Joint Acquisitions (50% - 50%)
• 31.5% Interconnector UK
• 51% Interconnector Zeebrugge Terminal
• 10% Huberator
Exclusive acquisition rights
• Snam 45% shareholding and industrial partner • Strategic and geographical fit
• Similar business model: integrated management
of transport and storage activities
Operational Performance & Financials
Snam Business Development
Business Environment
Final Remarks
Agenda
24
• Investments • International Growth
• New Potential Services
Business Context Evolution
2000 2010 2020
Investments
Efficiency
New services
Assets integration
Efficiency gains
Foster Market Development
Continuity in capex execution
ASSET OWNER SYSTEM OPERATOR
The changing business environment together with regulatory evolution …
… may lead to potential new value creation
European external growth
Valu
e dr
iver
s
25
Potential New Services
• Incentive mechanisms for TSOs to support the market • Additional informative services to network users • Demand forecast incentive mechanisms
• Short term (“day-ahead”) capacity services facilitating trading and arbitrage between hubs • Short cycle (“flexibility”) storage services • Peak transmission & storage capacity services
• Establishment of trading platforms • Development of spot and futures markets • Physical and financial gas products
Infrastructure system operator as provider of new services …
… to boost the liquidity and dynamics of the internal gas market
Transmission & Storage
Market functioning
Cooperation with gas pool
26
Operational Performance and Financials
Snam Business Development
Business Environment
Final Remarks
Agenda
27
Continuing Focus on Operating Performance
2012 consolidated EBITDA margin
77%*
2016 consolidated EBITDA margin
~80%
• Operating efficiency throughout the period, absorbing growth of business activity
• Capex execution
• Extra remuneration on capex supporting increase in blended return of our asset base
Leveraging on
* Not considering the positive tariff adjustment for € 143 mln recorded in the distribution activity 28
Growth from Associates
29 29
2016 EBITDA 2012 EBITDA
140 €mln +70%
* Equity RAB and district heating evaluated on 7x EBITDA ** Purchase price
SNAM INTERESTS IN NON CONSOLIDATED
ASSOCIATES
2012 Italian Distribution Europe TOTAL
EBITDA 118 22 140
EQUITY 625* 135** 760
... to support Snam’s low
risk profile
A solid Capital Structure to sustain a Low-Risk Growth Profile
30
Soun
dnes
s of
bal
ance
she
et...
• Firm commitment to solid investment grade profile, with strong focus on current credit rating metrics
• Maturities well distributed over time without any major refinancing exercise until 2015 and coherent with business profile
• Adequate liquidity buffer to support a convenient approach in DCM and provide comfortable financial flexibility
• Appropriate source mix between flexibility from bank financing and stability from M/LT bonds and institutional lenders
• Limited exposure to interest rates - 2/3 M/LT and fixed-rate debt at regime - preserving value creation from financial efficiency
• Strict control on cash flow generation via:
• Efficient working capital management • Disciplined investment policy supported by comfortable capex flexibility
A consistent Liquidity and Maturity Profile
Pool banking financing
Bilateral banking facilities
Debt Capital Market
Institutional lenders financing
15.4 BOND
BANKING FACILITIES
Existing debt and financial flexibility (bn€)
2-2.5 bln € an adequate liquidity buffer in the medium term: • To cover bond repayment
schedule • To support a convenient approach
in DCM • To provide comfortable financial
flexibility
12.4
0.7
~3
6.0
3.7
5.0
Financial flexibility
Maturity Profile (bn€): M/L Term Debt as at 31Dec 2012
Total committed credit facilites
& bond
Existing debt as at
31 Dec. 2012
2012
-
200
400
600
800
1.000
1.200
1.400
1.600
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 beyond2022
-
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 beyond2022
31
• 2012 guidelines achieved
• Completion of refinancing exercise and market improvement suggest room for optimisation in terms of cost and maturity via:
• New access to DCM
• Fine tuning of banking financing
• Growing role of institutional lenders offers further potential upside
• 2013 debt cost guidelines could benefit from optimisation exercise
2013: room for further efficiency
32
Operational Performance & Financials
Snam Business Development
Business Environment
Final Remarks
Agenda
33
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Confirming Profitable Growth and Attractive Shareholder Returns
CAGR 3.4%
(*) RAB evolution calculated assuming annual inflation rate for 2013-2016 of 2% and on the basis of the current approved regulatory frameworks
Expected profitability increase
to be aligned to RAB growth
• Robust, visible and sustainable shareholder returns
• Superior yield
[ €bn ]
Consolidated RAB*
• Operating cash flow to finance asset growth
• Leverage (D/RAB+associates) expected to remain around 55%
• Increasing incentivized RAB up to 36% in 2016
• Growing by 70% associates EBITDA
• Exploiting further operating efficiency 2012
0.25
€/share
Expected DPS 2013
2012 LEVEL CONFIRMED
34
35
Q & A S e s s i o n
36
A n n e x e s
2013-2016 Capital Expenditure in Italy and Incentive Scheme*
Regional & national develop. 2% premium for 7 – 10 yrs
Expansion & new entry points 3% premium for 10 – 15 yrs
Safety 1% premium for 5 yrs
Maintenance Base return: 6.4%
Expansion of existing fields 4% premium for 8 yrs
Development of new fields 4% premium for 16 yrs
Maintenance Base return: 6.7%
Metering 8% allowed return
Substitution of cast iron pipes 2% premium for 8 yrs
Other investments Base return: 7.6%
10%
30%60%
50%
15%
19%
16%
46%
39%
15%
37 (*) Gross of subsidies
2013 2014 - 2016
€ ~3.0 bn € ~0.7 bn
Transport and LNG
2013 2014 - 2016
€ ~0.7 bn € ~0.3 bn
Storage
2013 2014 - 2016
€ ~1.2 bn € ~0.3 bn
Distribution
Italgas: the leader in the Italian market*
38
(*) Calculated on the basis of consumers connected to distribution grids
Italgas
Enel F2i
A2A
Hera
IREN
Gas Natural
ASCOPIAVE
Others
33%
2%
3%
5%
5%
19%
27%
2%
6%
31%
ITALGAS & NAPOLETANA GAS ITALGAS ASSOCIATES OTHERS
2012
39
Snam’s Chief Financial Officer, Antonio Paccioretti, in his position as manager responsible for the preparation of financial reports, certifies pursuant to paragraph 2, article 154-bis of the Legislative Decree n. 58/1998, that data and information disclosures herewith set forth correspond to the company’s evidence and accounting books and entries. This presentation contains forward-looking statements regarding future events and the future results of Snam that are based on current expectations, estimates, forecasts, and projections about the industries in which Snam perates and the beliefs and assumptions of the management of Snam. In particular, among other statements, certain statements with regard to management objectives, trends in results of operations, margins, costs, return on equity, risk management are forward-looking in nature. Words such as ‘expects’, ‘anticipates’, ‘targets’, ‘goals’, ‘projects’, ‘intends’, ‘plans’, ‘believes’, ‘seeks’, ‘estimates’, variations of such words, and similar expressions are intended to identify such forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are only predictions and are subject to risks, uncertainties, and assumptions that are difficult to predict because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that will occur in the future. Therefore, Snam’s actual results may differ materially and adversely from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements. Factors that might cause or contribute to such differences include, but are not limited to, economic conditions globally, political, economic and regulatory developments in Italy and internationally. Any forward-looking statements made by or on behalf of Snam speak only as of the date they are made. Snam does not undertake to update forward-looking statements to reflect any changes in Snam’s expectations with regard thereto or any changes in events, conditions or circumstances on which any such statement is based. The reader should, however, consult any further disclosures Snam may make in documents it files with the Italian Securities and Exchange Commission and with the Italian Stock Exchange.
Disclaimer
snam.it
2013 – 2016 Strategy & Targets March 13th, 2013