2012 PM Summit Jamie Woodwell MBA Multifamily Market Dynamics

8/2/2019 2012 PM Summit Jamie Woodwell MBA Multifamily Market Dynamics

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February 10, 2012

2012 TRANSUNION PROPERTY MANAGEMENT SUMMIT

Multifamily Market Dynamics

Jamie Woodwell, Vice President, Commercial/Multifamily Research,Mortgage Bankers Association


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Thousands of Households, by Tenure andStructure Size, 2009

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Source:Census Bureau, American Housing Survey.

2012 Mortgage Bankers Association All Rights Reserved


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Composition of renter households, bybuilding size, 2009

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Thousands of households



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Composition of Renter Households, byBuilding Size, 2009

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Thousands of Households, by Tenure andHousehold Income, 2009

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Changes in Number of Owner- & Renter-occupied Households, & Homeownership Rate

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Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association and Census Bureau.



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Projected population change, by age, 2010 2015 & 2015 2020

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Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association and Census Bureau



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Number of Owner- & Renter-occupiedHouseholds, by Age of Householder, 2000 to2010

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Sources:Mortgage Bankers Association and Census Bureau.

Less than 35

years old Age 35 to 44 Age 45 to 54 Age 55 to 64 Age 65 and older



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Home-Buying Sentiment for Owners andRenters Since 1992

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Source: Data from Gary V. Engelhardt, The Great Recession and Attitudes Toward Home-Buying, Research Institute for Housing America(2011).



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Home-Buying and Selling Sentiment Since1992

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Source: Data from Gary V. Engelhardt, The Great Recession and Attitudes TowardHome-Buying, Research Institute for Housing America(2011).



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Factors Affecting Homeownership Rates

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Source: Homeownership Boom and Bust 2000 to 2009: Where Will the Homeownership Rate Go from Here?, Stuart A.Gabriel and Stuart S. Rosenthal, Research Institute for Housing America (2011).



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Percent of Tenants Probably or DefinitelyIntend to Renew

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Source: Kingsley Associates.



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Multifamily Fundamentals

MBAs Commercial/Multifamily Quarterly Data Book

MBA Analysis of REIS Data

MBA Analysis of NCREIF NOI Data

MBA Analysis of Equity Residential Quarterly Earnings MBA Analysis of Real Capital Analytics Data

MBA Analysis of Moodys, NCREIF and Green StreetProperty Price Data



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Commercial/Multifamily Vacancy & OccupancyRates, by Property Type by Quarter

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Source: Reis, Inc.



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Year-over-Year Percent Change in NetOperating Income Among NCREIF Properties

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Source:NCREIF.



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Thousands of Households, by Tenure andHousehold Income, 2009

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Source:Equity Residential.

Q3 2009 to Q3 2010 Q3 2010 to Q3 2011



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Commercial/Multifamily Property SalesVolume, Properties & Portfolios $5 million &Greater

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Source:Real Capital Analytics.



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Commercial/Multifamily Capitalization Rates,Properties & Portfolios $5 Million & Greater

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Sources: Real Capital Analytics and Federal Reserve Board.



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Indexes of Commercial/Multifamily PropertyPrices (2007Q3 = 100)

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Sources:Mortgage Bankers Association, Moodys/REAL and NCREIF.



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Indexes of Commercial/Multifamily PropertyPrices & the Dow Jones Industrial Average(2007Q3 = 100)

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Sources:Mortgage Bankers Association, Moodys/REAL and NCREIF and Dow Jones.



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Indexes of Commercial/Multifamily PropertyPrices (2007Q3 = 100) & Multifamily MortgageDebt Outstanding ($thousands)

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Source:Mortgage Bankers Association, Moodys/REAL and NCREIF.



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Housing Starts, Seasonally Adjusted atAnnual Rate, Thousands of Units

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Source:Census Bureau.



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Multifamily Finance

MBAs Annual Report on Multifamily Lending

MBAs Annual Origination Summation

MBAs Quarterly Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage

Bankers Originations Index MBAs Quarterly Analysis of Mortgage Debt Outstanding

MBAs Annual Report on Commercial/MultifamilyMortgage Maturity Volumes

MBAs Quarterly Analysis of Commercial/Multifamily

Mortgage Delinquency Rates


Yi ld T N i l S iti t


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Yields on Treasury Nominal Securities atConstant Maturity, Monthly Averages of DailyData (percent)

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Source:Federal Reserve Board.



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Total & Institutional Multifamily Lending($Millions)

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Source:Mortgage Bankers Association, Annual Origination Summation and Annual Report on Multifamily Housing.


M t B k M ltif il &


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Mortgage Bankers Multifamily &Commercial/Multifamily Origination Indexes(index value, 2001 avg quarter = 100, right)

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Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Origination Index.


I d f Q t l C i l/M ltif il


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Index of Quarterly Commercial/MultifamilyMortgage Bankers Originations, by InvestorGroup (2001 average quarter = 100)

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Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Origination Index.


O i i ti f F i M & F ddi M &


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Originations for Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac &Total & Institutional Multifamily Lending($Millions)

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Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association, Annual Origination Summation and Annual Report on MultifamilyLending, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac press releases.



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Multifamily Lending in 2010, by LenderAverage Loan Size

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Source:Mortgage Bankers Association, Annual Report on Multifamily Lending.



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Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding($millions)

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Source: Mortgage Bankers Association analysis of Federal Reserve Boards Flow of Funds.



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Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding($millions)

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Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, Quarterly Analysis of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding.



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Multifamily and Other Commercial MortgageDelinquency Rates Among Major Investor

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Sources:Mortgage Bankers Association and Census Bureau.

Bank & Thrift (90+ day delinquency or nonaccrual) CMBS (30+ day delinquency including REO)

Life Companies (60+ day delinquency including inprocess of foreclosure)

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (60+ day delinquency)


Non Bank UPB of Outstanding Multifamily


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Non-Bank UPB of Outstanding MultifamilyMortgages, by Year of Maturity, as of Dec. 31,2010

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Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, Commercial/Multifamily Loan Maturity Volumes.



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Contact Information & MBA Resources

Jamie WoodwellVice President

Commercial Real Estate ResearchMortgage Bankers Association

1717 Rhode Island Ave NW, Washington, DC 20036

[email protected]

MBA homepage:www.mortgagebankers.org

MBA research page:www.mortgagebankers.org/research

Research Institute for Housing America:http://www.housingamerica.org

MBA Newslink:http://www.mortgagebankers.org/NewsandMedia/MBANewsLink

mailto:[email protected]://www.mortgagebankers.org/http://www.mortgagebankers.org/researchhttp://www.housingamerica.org/http://www.mortgagebankers.org/NewsandMedia/MBANewsLinkhttp://www.mortgagebankers.org/NewsandMedia/MBANewsLinkhttp://www.housingamerica.org/http://www.mortgagebankers.org/researchhttp://www.mortgagebankers.org/mailto:[email protected]


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MBAs Commercial/Multifamily RealEstate Research Reports

www.mortgagebankers.org/research
http://www.mortgagebankers.org/researchhttp://www.mortgagebankers.org/research

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2012 PM Summit Jamie Woodwell MBA Multifamily Market Dynamics