2012 Nest Report - Wrapping up the Charlottesville Real Estate Market

7/30/2019 2012 Nest Report - Wrapping up the Charlottesville Real Estate Market

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2012 Market Overview

Charlottesville / Central Virginia Region


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2012: A Pivot in a Positive Direction

Well be the first ones to admit that we were a little down on the real estate market over the last few years. How could you not be? Every time we

turned around, prices were down, inventory was up, and buyers were scared to move forward on the purchase of their next home. While we did

start to see some positive trends in 2011 (not the least of which were the historically low interest rates), theres a strong chance that well look

back at 2012 as the year we really started to come out of this real estate mess weve been tangled in since late 2006.

The overall Charlottesville real estate market performed well in 2012. Total sales in the MSA increased from 2326 to 2676 in 2012, a significant

increase of 15%. In addition, median prices edged upward by 2% to $249,000. On top of those positive numbers, inventory levels decreased and

thus, months of inventory improved. Total year end inventory was 6% lower than in 2011 and months of inventory fell to 10.09 months, an

improvement of 12% over 2011. The 2059 homes on the market in December 2012 represents the lowest levels since February 2006 when

there were just 1891 homes for sale.

The nice part about the market improvements in 2012 are that the improvements are fairly consistent among most major indexes, areas, and

submarkets. Take median prices as an example: MSA detached homes (+2%), overall Albemarle (+4%), Albemarle detached (+1%), overall

Charlottesville (+2%), and Charlottesville detached (+3%) all saw modest gains in 2012. Inventory levels and months of inventory for each of thes

segments were also down (a positive sign) from 2011.

If youve been following The Nest Report for the last few years, youve probably seen us reiterating one major point: the real estate market cannot

even begin to recover until inventory levels recede from their previous sky-high levels. So, even though we are starting to see modest median

price gains, the reduction of inventory levels is the most welcome news. In fact, the drop in inventory levels is most likely the main factor

leading to the median price gains.

As you read through this report, youll see an almost unending list of positive news: median prices up, contracts written up, inventory levels

down, days on market down...the list goes on. But one word of caution: lets not get too confident, too early. There are still challenges that

the Charlottesville MSA market must conquer. For example, as nice as it is to see inventory levels in certain market segments drop from 16

months to 9 months, those levels are still relatively high as compared to levels as compared to the last 6 to 7 years. In addition, there are still a

lot of homeowners in the marketplace who are underwater. A 2% increase in median prices over the past year hardly makes up for the 10-20%

drop we saw from the peak of the market. Lastly, we do anticipate that inventory levels may bump upward in 2013 as many home sellers jump

back in a real estate market that is exhibiting its first positive trends in five to six years. It will be interesting to track how much inventory

increases and, if it does, how much the increased demand will be able to absorb those additional homes.

In addition to anticipating more re-sales on the market, the recent increase in new developments will lead to more new home inventory in the

Charlottesville marketplace. For the first time in years, developers are breaking ground on brand new developments. These new developments

are bringing hundreds of home sites to the marketplace. New home sales have been strong for the last 24 months and we expect this trend to

continue in 2013. Just as new home development and construction has come back strong, real estate investors are also back in the marketplace.

The low interest rates, an improved economy, and higher consumer confidence is leading to an uptick in residential real estate investors in and

around Charlottesville.

Overall, the health of the Charlottesville real estate market is improving...thanks in large part to a strong 2012. All signs are pointing to that

momentum from 2012 continuing into 2013. There are still some good values in the marketplace. Combine that with low interest rates and we

expect sales to keep progressing on an upward trend line in 2013.

So, we tip our hats to the 2012 real estate market to what we hope was the next step towards a more stable, long-term real estate market in

Central Virginia.


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The overall sales trend for the Charlottesville MSA continues to trend in a positive direction. For the 6th straight quarter, total year-over-year

sales were up. Q4 2012 sales were up 19% from Q4 2011 (from 624 to 524). On an annual basis, the overall MSA performed well in 2012.

Median single family home prices increased 3.2% and total sales increased 15.1% as compared to 2011. In addition, inventory levels continued toslide downward: total inventory fell by 4.2% and months of inventory dropped by 4.7%.

Central Virginia/Charlottesville MSA Real Estate Market Snapshot

Attached homes and condominium sales were also strong in 2012. Total sales jumped by 15.3% (from 570 to 657). While the median price of

attached and condos did fall by 1%, total inventory and months of inventory fell dramatically. Total units for sale at the end of 2012 as compared

to 2011 are 22.4% lower (342 in 2012 as compared to 441 at the end of 2011). In addition, months of inventory levels were also much lower at

7.12 months - thats a 41.9% reduction as compared to the 12.25 months at the end of 2011. Overall, the health of the Charlottesville MSA

real estate market was vastly improved in 2012.

5 YEAR TREND

AverageList Price

AverageSale Price

MedianSale Price

Price perSquare Foot

Avg Dayson Market

TotalSales

TotalInventory

Months ofInventory

2012 $367,173 $341,653 $278,692 $135.00 108 2020 1396 8.89

Change 3.7% 1.7% 3.2% -2.9% -6.9% 15.1% -4.2% -4.7%

2011 $354,157 $335,818 $270,000 $139.00 116 1755 1457 9.33

Change -5.1% -5.2% -3.6% -4.1% 4.5% -0.6% -10.9% -23.0%

2010 $373,189 $354,211 $280,000 $145.00 111 1765 1636 12.11

AverageList Price

AverageSale Price

MedianSale Price

Price perSquare Foot

Avg Dayson Market

TotalSales

TotalInventory

Months ofInventory

2012 $217,222 $210,865 $189,000 $140.00 111 657 342 7.12

Change 2.0% 2.4% -1.0% -0.7% 3.7% 15.3% -22.4% -41.9%

2011 $213,004 $205,825 $190,950 $141.00 107 570 441 12.25

Change -8.8% -9.9% -10.2% -4.1% 0.0% -1.0% -5.8% 25.6%

2010 $233,436 $228,479 $212,750 $147.00 107 576 468 9.75

Attached/Condo

Five Year Trend of Sales Activity (Number of Sales)

MSA (Albemarle, Charlottesville, Fluvanna, Greene, Louisa, and Nelson)

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Q4 1

SingleFamily


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0

100

200

300

400

500

600


Five Year Trend of Sales Activity (Total Number of Sales)

On a quarterly basis, the 4th quarter was strong for Albemarle County home sales. Q4 saw 266 total sales in Albemarle County, an increase of

7.25% as compared to Q4 2011. On an annual basis, total sales in 2012 were up in Albemarle County by 14.1% over 2011 (1280 in 2012 vs. 112

in 2011). Condominiums in Albemarle bounced back strong as banks continued to loosen their condo financing restrictions. Total condominium

sales jumped by 18.3% from 2011 as 123 condominiums changed hands in Albemarle in 2012. While the average price of Albemarle condos

(+15%) and price/square foot (+5.1%) did increase, median prices fell by 4.5% to $118,000.

Albemarle County Real Estate Market Snapshot

AverageList Price

AverageSale Price

MedianSale Price

Avg Dayson Market

Avg$ PSF

TotalSales #

2012 497,554 454,558 350,000 102 $151 852

Change 2.3% -1.3% 3.0% -7.3% -4.4% 19.5%

2010 486,392 460,449 339,900 110 $158 713

2012 497,554 454,558 350,000 102 $151 852

Change 8.2% 4.4% 1.2% -8.9% -3.2% 15.0%

2011 459,906 435,456 346,000 112 $156 741

SingleFamily

AverageList Price

AverageSale Price

MedianSale Price

Avg Dayson Market

Avg$ PSF

TotaSales

2012 250,625 247,153 232,562 93 $133 304

Change 4.7% 2.8% 1.2% 13.4% 0.8% 13.4%

2010 239,321 240,331 229,800 82 $132 268

2012 250,625 247,153 232,562 93 $133 304

Change 7.1% 7.3% 5.2% 2.2% 2.3% 9.4%

2011 234,074 230,364 221,000 91 $130 278

Attached

AverageList Price

AverageSale Price

MedianSale Price

Avg Dayson Market

Avg$ PSF

TotalSales #

2012 170,139 161,676 118,000 101 $124 123

Change -21.5% -20.0% -16.0% -22.3% -10.8% 17.1%

2010 216,686 202,011 140,500 130 $139 105

2012 170,139 161,676 118,000 101 $124 123

Change 14.6% 15.0% -4.5% 4.1% 5.1% 18.3%

2011 148,452 140,622 123,500 97 $118 104

Condos

Contracts Writte

Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Change

Single Family 144 177 22.9%

Attached 56 76 35.7%

Condos 20 16 -20.0%

Single family home sales in Albemarle were up 15% over 2011 (852 vs. 741) . In addition, median prices edged up slightly to $350,000,

representing a modest increase of 1.2%. Total days on market for Albemarle single family homes also improved to just 102 DOM: an 8.9%

improvement from 2011. Attached homes in Albemarle also had a strong year with a 9.4% increase in sales over 2011 (304 vs. 278). Median

prices moved upwards by 5.2% to $232,500. Finally, contracts written in Q4 were up for single family (+22.9%) and attached (+35.7%).

5 YEAR TREN


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2012

2011

2010

2009

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

4%

4%

3%

3%

4%

3%

3%

3%

12%

10%

11%

12%

45%

46%

42%

43%

36%

37%

42%

39%

Albemarle County Percent of Sales by Price Range

0-250K 250K-500K 500K-750K 750-1M 1M+

Albemarle County Market Snapshot (Part 2)

In 2012, the Crozet area was the strongest selling segment of Albemarle as it made up almost 1 in 5 total sales at 19%. The strength of new

home sales in Old Trail and Wickham Pond undoubtedly aided Crozet in achieving 243 sales. Keswick also performed well with 217 sales (17%),

due in large part to a resurgence of sales in Glenmore. Southside (16%), 29 North (13%), and Rio (13%) rounded out the top 5 most popular areas

in Albemarle for 2012. Two out of every three 2012 sales were single family homes. Attached homes made up 24% of the Albemarle market

while condos were 10%.

The price distribution of 2012 sales stayed in line relative to the previous three years. 39% of all homes sold in Albemarle in 2012 were under

$250,000. This is a slight drop from 2011, but consistent with previous years. 43% of homes sold were between $250,000 and $500,000, a slight

bump from 2011 (42%). 18% of all sales were above $500,000, which is almost identical to 2011 (17%), 2010 (17%), and 2009 (20%). Its a positive

trend not to see any major fluctuations in these price distribution segments - giving us more confidence that were in the midst of a

sustainable recovery.

8%

17%

9%

19%

16%

4%

13%

13%

Albemarle County Sales by Sub-Area

29 North Rio Earlysville SouthsideCrozet Ivy Keswick Barracks

10%

24%

67%

Albemarle County Sales by Type

Single Family Attached Condos


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0

50

100

150

200

250


Five Year Trend of Sales Activity (Total Number of Sales)

After struggling through 2010 and most of 2011, the Charlottesville City real estate market bounced back in a major way in 2012. Total sales in

Charlottesville were up by 24.6% in 2012 as compared to 2011 (501 vs. 402). Single family homes performed the strongest with a total sales

increase of 30.9% (356 vs. 272). Median prices increased by 3.1% for single family homes in 2012 to $268,000. We expect single family

home sales to continue to improve in 2012 as demand continues to be strong (as evidenced by a 12.5% increase in Q4 contracts written) and also

because there are several new neighborhoods planned within the City limits for 2012.

Charlottesville City Real Estate Market Snapshot

AverageList Price

AverageSale Price

MedianSale Price

Avg Dayson Market

Avg$ PSF

TotalSales #

2012 342,508 323,167 268,000 94 $160 356

Change -3.6% -2.9% -0.7% -15.3% -1.2% 38.5%

2010 355,206 332,824 270,000 111 $162 257

2012 342,508 323,167 268,000 94 $160 356

Change 4.2% 4.7% 3.1% -7.8% 0.6% 30.9%

2011 328,546 308,638 260,000 102 $159 272

SingleFamily

AverageList Price

AverageSale Price

MedianSale Price

Avg Dayson Market

Avg$ PSF

TotaSales

2012 196,487 187,280 174,000 110 $111 33

Change -1.3% -2.4% -6.5% -21.4% -9.0% -17.5

2010 199,119 191,944 186,000 140 $122 40

2012 196,487 187,280 174,000 110 $111 33

Change -3.2% -3.5% -16.7% -5.2% -3.5% -5.7%

2011 202,962 193,993 209,000 116 $115 35

Attached

AverageList Price

AverageSale Price

MedianSale Price

Avg Dayson Market

Avg$ PSF

TotalSales #

2012 199,065 190,965 171,000 108 $186 110

Change -27.8% -30.0% -22.7% 42.1% -15.5% 37.5%

2010 275,782 272,903 221,267 76 $220 80

2012 199,065 190,965 171,000 108 $186 110

Change -14.5% -13.9% -2.3% -1.8% -9.3% 15.8%

2011 232,910 221,752 175,000 110 $205 95

Contracts Writte

Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Change

Single Family 56 63 12.50%

Attached 9 5 -44.44%

Condos 18 18 0.00%

Condos

Charlottesville condominium sales were also particularly positive in 2012 with an increase of 15.8% over 2011 (110 vs. 95). The final developer

sales at Walker Square undoubtedly helped condo sales improve. Price reductions at Walker Square also led to an overall condo median price dro

of 2.3%. There seems to be a bit of a shortage of condos heading into 2013: dont be surprised if sales drop, but median prices start to inch

upwards. Attached home sales in the City were off by 5.7% this past year, due in large part to a shortage of desirable inventory.

5 YEAR TREND


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Charlottesville City Market Snapshot (Part 2)

2012

2011

2010

2009

0% 25% 50% 75% 100

1%

2%

1%

2%

2%

2%

1%

2%

4%

6%

6%

4%

42%

38%

35%

37%

51%

53%

56%

54%

Charlottesville City Percent of Sales by Price Range

0-250K 250K-500K 500K-750K 750-1M 1M+

The Johnson (20%), Burnley Moran (21%), and Venable (19%) districts made up 60% of City sales in 2012. These ratios fall in line with the previous

few years. As expected, more than 7 out of every ten home sales in the City were single family homes. The City of Charlottesville is made up of

an overwhelmingly high percentage of single family homes. Condominium sales totaled 22%, while 7% of the sales were attached homes.

Similar to Albemarle County, the price distribution of sales in the City of Charlottesville fell in line with the previous three years. 54% of all sales

were below $250,000, which represents a slight drop from 2011 but an increase from 2010 and 2009. 37% of all sales were between $250,000

and $500,000. While there were more higher end sales in the City in 2012 than in previous years, sales over $500,000 made up a similar

percentage of the total market.

22%

7%

71%

Charlottesville City Sales by Type

Single Family Attached Condos

19%

20%

13% 10%

17%

21%

Charlottesville City Sales by Elementary School Area

Burnley Moran Clark GreenbrierJackson-Via Johnson Venable


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AverageList Price

AverageSale Price

MedianSale Price

Avg Dayson Market

TotalSales #

TotalInventory

Months ofInventory

2012 $214,823 $205,890 $181,500 104 339 293 12.2

Change -10.1% -8.7% -8.1% -16.1% 28.9% -2.3% 9.8%

2011 $239,030 $225,606 $197,500 124 263 300 11.11

Change 3.4% -0.5% -3.7% 29.2% -13.8% 1.7% -28.4%

2010 $231,219 $226,803 $205,000 96 305 295 15.52

Average

List Price

Average

Sale Price

Median

Sale Price

Avg Days

on Market

Total

Sales #

Total

Inventory

Months of

Inventory

2012 $248,182 $240,489 $230,000 112 214 255 10.2

Change -1.6% -3.7% 1.5% 9.8% 4.4% 38.6% -0.2%

2011 $252,239 $249,832 $226,500 102 205 184 10.22

Change -6.6% -5.3% -8.5% 6.3% -2.4% -18.9% -32.5%

2010 $270,027 $263,722 $247,500 96 210 227 15.13

Fluvanna County

Contracts Written

Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Change

76 93 22.4%

Fluvanna sent some mixed messages in 2012. On a positive note, after an almost 14% drop in

sales from 2010 to 2011, sales jumped by 28.9% to 339 total sales in 2012. On the flip side,median prices fell again to $181,500 (-8.1%). In addition, months of inventory at the end of

2012 increased slightly from 11.11 to 12.2 months. However, lower prices seem to have

spurred demand in Fluvanna as contracts written in Q4 were up 22.4% from 2011. We expect

these lower prices in Fluvanna to continue to draw more buyers in 2013.

Contracts Writ en

Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Change

52 44 -15.4%

2012 was a solid year for Greene County real estate. Median prices edged up slightly to

$230,000 (an increase of 1.5%) over 2011). In addition, sales increased by a respectable 4.4%

to a total of 214 sales. However, year end inventory levels jumped fairly significantly to 255

units (+38.6%). We are seeing an increase in demand from NGIC and other government

contractors over the last few months. Yet, with looming government budget cuts, that could

negatively affect jobs and real estate in Greene in 2012. Contracts written in Q4 were off by

15.4% in 2012.

Greene County

Overall

Overall


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Average

List Price

Average

Sale Price

Median

Sale Price

Avg Days

on Market

Total

Sales #

Total

Inventory

Months of

Inventory

2012 $220,933 $218,564 $183,000 88 165 200 14.28

Change -0.3% 1.7% 0.9% -12.0% 10.7% 15.6% 23.9%

2011 $221,536 $214,878 $181,400 100 149 173 11.53

Change -12.1% -11.2% -15.6% -13.8% -10.8% -20.6% -52.4%

2010 $252,146 $241,980 $215,000 116 167 218 24.22

AverageList Price

AverageSale Price

MedianSale Price

Avg Dayson Market

TotalSales #

TotalInventory

Months ofInventory

2012 $279,935 $258,650 $227,900 216 181 313 12.52

Change -8.1% -7.6% 1.3% 10.2% -1.6% -4.9% -20.1%

2011 $304,479 $280,014 $225,000 196 184 329 15.66

Change -13.3% -12.7% -13.5% 9.5% -6.1% -8.1% -16.9%

2010 $351,018 $320,682 $260,000 179 196 358 18.84

Contracts Writ en

Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Change

37 46 24.3%

Due in large part to some 2012 success in Spring Creek and growth at Zion Crossroads, Louisa

sales increased by 10.7% to 165 total sales. This comes off a 10.8% drop from 2010 to 2011.

While median prices held relatively steady (+.9%), year end inventory levels and months of

inventory in Louisa spiked over 2011. Total inventory was up 15.6% to 200 units and months

of inventory rose 23.9% to 14.28 months. On a positive note, contracts written in Q4 were up

24.3% over 2011 numbers.

Contracts Written

Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Change

62 67 8.1%

Nelson County real estates roller coaster ride continued in 2012. Of all of the market

segments, Nelson has been the most difficult to predict over the last 36 months. 2012 was a

fairly strong year for Nelson. Total sales were down ever-so-slightly (-1.6%) to 181 total units

sold. However, median prices inched upwards by 1.3% to $227,900. The most positive news of

all in Nelson relates to inventory levels: total inventory fell by 4.9% and year end moths of

inventory dropped dramatically (-20.1% to 12.52 months) for the second straight year. Good

news continues for Nelson as Q4 contracts written were up 8.1% from Q4 2011.

Louisa County

Nelson County

Overall

Overall

*Some statistics in this report come courtesy of the Charlottesville Area MLS as of 10/3/12.

Documents

2012 Nest Report - Wrapping up the Charlottesville Real Estate Market