30
Uncertainty overshadows improving economy Jason Fuchs Financial Advisor Wells Fargo Advisors July 2012 Please see slides 28 and 29 for important disclaimers.

2012 Midyear Economic And Market Outlook

Embed Size (px)

DESCRIPTION

Uncertainty overshadows an improving economy. The economy continues to recover from the worse downturn since the Great Depression, which caused the S&P 500 to lose more than 1/2 of its value between October 2007 and March 2009. Although things are better now, this recovery has taken longer than many of us would have liked. As a result, I think we\’re still at least a little nervous about the future and uncertain about how to prepare our portfolios to face what may be down the road. In this presentation, I discuss what we at Wells Fargo Advisors see ahead for the economy, the domestic and international equity markets, fixed income investments, and commodities.

Citation preview

Page 1: 2012 Midyear Economic And Market Outlook

Uncertainty overshadows improving economyJason Fuchs

Financial Advisor

Wells Fargo Advisors

July 2012

Please see slides 28 and 29 for important disclaimers.

Page 2: 2012 Midyear Economic And Market Outlook

Investment Strategy Committee

Economy U.S. equities Fixed income International

Gary Thayer

Chief Macro Strategist

Stuart Freeman, CFA

Chief Equity Strategist

Brian Rehling, CFA

Chief Fixed Income Strategist

Paul Christopher,CFA

Chief International Strategist

Page 3: 2012 Midyear Economic And Market Outlook

What does all the uncertainty mean for the economy?

Page 4: 2012 Midyear Economic And Market Outlook

You have questions

How is the recovery going?

What’s ahead for GDP and inflation?

What challenges may be ahead?

Sluggish recovery should continue.

We expect modest growth and benign inflation.

Europe, presidential election and debt ceiling debate may feed volatility.

4

Page 5: 2012 Midyear Economic And Market Outlook

Economic outlook

The recovery remains subpar

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

(%)

Page 6: 2012 Midyear Economic And Market Outlook

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Economic outlook

A debt-ceiling battle looms(%)

Page 7: 2012 Midyear Economic And Market Outlook

Amid the volatility, where does the stock market go from here?

Page 8: 2012 Midyear Economic And Market Outlook

You have questions

Where is the stock market heading?

Will small-cap stocks perform better than large cap?

What sectors look the most attractive?

We believe the S&P 500 will end the year higher than it is today.

We favor large-cap stocks versus small cap.

Cyclically sensitive stocks should perform well in the coming months.

8

Page 9: 2012 Midyear Economic And Market Outlook

Market’s performance has been “choppy.”

Sideways movement is not unusual.

We raised our year-end S&P 500 target range.

9

U.S. equities outlook

S&P 500 should end the year higher

Page 10: 2012 Midyear Economic And Market Outlook

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

(%)

U.S. equities outlook

Small caps should underperform

Page 11: 2012 Midyear Economic And Market Outlook

As of June 8, 2012

Overweight% of S&P 500 Guidance

Consumer Discret.

11.2% 13.3%

Info. Tech. 19.9% 23.5%

Materials 3.4% 5.0%

Telecom. 3.2% 4.0%

Note: Weightings may not add to 100% due to rounding. Source: Bloomberg, Wells Fargo Advisors

Equity sectors – recommended portfolio weightings

Evenweight% of S&P 500 Guidance

Consumer Staples

11.4% 11.0%

Industrials 10.4% 10.5%

Underweight% of S&P 500 Guidance

Energy 10.7% 10.2%

Financials 14.2% 12.7%

Health Care 11.8% 9.8%

Utilities 3.8% 0.0%

U.S. equities outlook

Cyclically sensitive stocks should outperform defensive

Page 12: 2012 Midyear Economic And Market Outlook

Are higher interest rates around the corner?

Page 13: 2012 Midyear Economic And Market Outlook

You have questions

Will interest rates increase?

What will the Federal Reserve do?

Where are the opportunities in fixed income?

We believe interest rates will remain historically low in the coming months.

With Operation Twist extended – the Fed stands ready to do more if needed.

We recommend credit-sensitive sectors for longer-term investors.

13

Page 14: 2012 Midyear Economic And Market Outlook

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Yie

ld

Source: Bloomberg, Wells Fargo Advisors

Fixed income outlook

Interest rates should remain low

Page 15: 2012 Midyear Economic And Market Outlook

•Since the recession, the Fed has instituted:

• Two rounds of quantitative easing

• Operation Twist

•Operation Twist extended through year-end – should help keep longer rates contained.

•We don’t see need for further quanitative easing at this point.

•Situation may change.

•May see QE3 announced if the economic situation deteriorates.

Fixed income outlook

What will the Federal Reserve do?

Page 16: 2012 Midyear Economic And Market Outlook

OverweightSlight overweight Evenweight

Slight underweight Underweight Duration

Corporate bonds Muncipal bonds Agency securities Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities

International developed-market debt

Slightly short*

Emerging-market debt Preferred securities

High-yield securities

U.S. Treasuries

Mortgage-backed securities

As of May 10, 2012, unless otherwise noted

Fixed income

Fixed income outlook

Recommended portfolio weightings

*We recommend a duration slightly short of an investor’s target duration. If an investor does not have a target duration, then we recommend a duration of approximately 4.25 years in taxable portfolios, and 6.75 years for tax-exempt portfolios. Duration, stated in years, can be used to estimate the percentage change in a bond’s value that results from a 1% change in interest rates. The longer (higher) the duration, the more prices will fluctuate as interest rates rise and fall.

Page 17: 2012 Midyear Economic And Market Outlook

What lies ahead for international investments?

Page 18: 2012 Midyear Economic And Market Outlook

You have questions

What will happen in Europe?

Is the global economic slowdown coming to an end?

Are there opportunities in international investments?

Europe should avoid the worst-case scenario.

Slowdown should end in the coming months.

Although cautious, we see good prospects in international investments.

18

Page 19: 2012 Midyear Economic And Market Outlook

•European crisis remains principal risk to global confidence.

•We believe euro-zone leaders will work to address the:

• Union’s immediate financial problems

• Need for long-term economic growth

•China’s economy is growing but slower than expected.

•Iran continues to create tension, but we don’t anticipate war.

International outlook

Europe is key

Page 20: 2012 Midyear Economic And Market Outlook

12-m

on

th g

row

th r

ate

s

Source: Bloomberg, Wells Fargo Advisors

International outlook

Global slowdown may be ending

OECD leading indicators*OECD industrial production*

* Data are the composite totals for the countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)

3/12

Page 21: 2012 Midyear Economic And Market Outlook

Equities Sovereign debt Currencies Commodities

Japan1 Canada1 Japan1 Energy

Indonesia2 Australia1 Emerging Asia basket2 Gold

Malaysia2 New Zealand1

Mexico2

Norway

Source: Wells Fargo Advisors1Developed international markets2Emerging international markets

International outlook

Opportunities in international investments

Page 22: 2012 Midyear Economic And Market Outlook

What does it all mean?

Page 23: 2012 Midyear Economic And Market Outlook

Economic and market review

The slow economic recovery should continue.

Inflation should remain in check.

Unemployment is likely to remain high.

The stock market should go up – but at a moderate rate.

Interest rates should remain low.

2.5%Real GDP

2.5%CPI inflation

8.0%Unemployment

1,400-1,450S&P 500

2.50%10-year Treasury yield

ForecastsYear-end 2012

Page 24: 2012 Midyear Economic And Market Outlook

What should you do?

Page 25: 2012 Midyear Economic And Market Outlook

The Target Zone may help you evaluate your Recommended Plan. It does not represent a projection of future portfolio values. The Target Zone graph is shown in actual dollars, the Envision technology uses Monte Carlo simulations, which are based on historical and hypothetical information; there is no guarantee that actual future investments will perform in accordance with the simulated trials.

The Envision® process

Working toward your goals

73 74 75 76 77 78

The Envision process uses Monte Carlo simulations, which are based on historical and hypothetical information; there is no guarantee that investments will perform in accordance with the simulated trials.

Page 26: 2012 Midyear Economic And Market Outlook

IMPORTANT: The projections or other information generated by the Envision process technology regarding the likelihood of various investment outcomes are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Results may vary with each use and over time. Envision methodology: Based on accepted statistical methods, the Envision tool uses a simulation model to test your Ideal, Acceptable and Recommended Investment Plans. The simulation model uses assumptions about inflation, financial market returns and the relationships among these variables. These assumptions were derived from analysis of historical data. Using Monte Carlo simulation the Envision tool simulates 1,000 different potential outcomes over a lifetime of investing varying historical risk, return, and correlation amongst the assets. Some of these scenarios will assume strong financial market returns, similar to the best periods of history for investors. Other will be similar to the worst periods in investing history. Most scenarios will fall somewhere in between. Envision® is a registered service mark of Wells Fargo & Company and used under license. Elements of the Envision presentations and simulation results are under license from Wealthcare Capital Management, Inc. & Wealthcare Capital Management IP, LLC  © 2002-2012 Wealthcare Capital Management, Inc. & Wealthcare Capital Management IP, LLC - U.S. Patents 7,562,040, 7,650,303, 7,765,138 and 7,991,675 - Other international patents approved and pending. All Rights Reserved.  Wealthcare Capital Management, Inc. & Wealthcare Capital Management IP, LLC are separate entities and are not directly affiliated with Wells Fargo Advisors.

Important disclaimers

Page 27: 2012 Midyear Economic And Market Outlook

How can I help?

Page 28: 2012 Midyear Economic And Market Outlook

Important disclaimersPast performance is not an indication of future results.

An index is not managed and is unavailable for direct investment.

Investing in foreign securities presents certain risks not associated with domestic investments, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability, and different accounting standards. This may result in greater share price volatility.

The prices of small- and mid-cap company stocks are generally more volatile than large-company stocks. They often involve higher risks because smaller companies may lack the management expertise, financial resources, product diversification and competitive strengths to endure adverse economic conditions.

Investing in fixed income securities involves certain risks such as market risk if sold prior to maturity and credit risk especially if investing in high yield bonds, which have lower ratings and are subject to greater volatility. All fixed income investments may be worth less than original cost upon redemption or maturity. Income from municipal securities is generally free from federal taxes and state taxes for residents of the issuing state. While the interest income is tax-free, capital gains, if any, will be subject to taxes. Income for some investors may be subject to the federal alternative minimum tax (AMT).

Bond prices fluctuate inversely to changes in interest-rates. Therefore, a general rise in interest rates can result in the decline of the value of your investment.

Page 29: 2012 Midyear Economic And Market Outlook

Important disclaimersWhile stocks generally have a greater potential return than government bonds and Treasury securities, they involve a higher degree of risk. Government bonds and Treasury bills, unlike stocks, are guaranteed as to payment of principal and interest by the U.S. government if held to maturity. Although Treasuries are considered free from credit risk, they are subject to other types of risks. These risks include interest rate risk, which may cause the underlying value of the bond to fluctuate inversely to a change in interest rates.

Buying commodities allows for a source of diversification for those sophisticated persons who wish to add commodities to their portfolios and who are prepared to assume the risks inherent in the commodities market. Any purchase represents a transaction in a non-income-producing commodity and is highly speculative. Therefore, commodities should not represent a significant portion of an individual’s portfolio.

Buying gold, silver, platinum or palladium allows for a source of diversification for those sophisticated persons who wish to add precious metals to their portfolios and who are prepared to assume the risks inherent in the bullion market. Any bullion or coin purchase represents a transaction in a non-income-producing commodity and is highly speculative. Therefore, precious metals should not represent a significant portion of an individual’s portfolio.

Wells Fargo Advisors may not offer direct investments into the products mentioned in this presentation.

There is no assurance that any of the target prices mentioned will be attained. Any market prices are only indications of market values and are subject to change.

Investments that are concentrated in a specific sector or industry may be subject to a higher degree of market risk than investments that are more diversified.

High-yield bonds, also known as junk bonds, are subject to greater risk of loss of principal and interest, including default risk, than higher-rated bonds. The prices of these bonds may be volatile , and they are generally only suitable for aggressive investors.

Page 30: 2012 Midyear Economic And Market Outlook

© 2012 Wells Fargo Advisors, LLC. All rights reserved. 0612-1427A [89172-v1] e7173

Securities and insurance Products:

Wells Fargo Advisors is the trade name used by two separate, registered broker-dealers: Wells Fargo Advisors, LLC and Wells Fargo Advisors Financial Network, LLC, Members SIPC, non-bank affiliates of Wells Fargo & Company.

NOT INSURED BY FDIC OR ANYFEDERAL GOVERNMENT AGENCY

MAY LOSEVALUE

NOT A DEPOSIT OF OR GUARANTEED BY A BANK OR ANY BANK AFFILIATE