2012 Election Results Doug Sosnik

11.8.12 @ 12:00 pm

2012 ELECTION OVERVIEW

First status quo election in four cycles.

Unprecedented ground operation, combined with a changing demographic that favored Democrats, sealed an Obama victory.

Republicans fail to control Congress due to five unelectable “tea party” candidates losing sure Senate victories in last two elections.

Obama won due to: Better campaign and stronger candidacy Strong perception of an improving economy Personal popularity Public’s sense that Bush more to blame for economic problems Growing demographic advantage for Democrats among Hispanic, young and unmarried voters Democratic Electoral College advantage

Republican long-term challenges: Alienation of fast-growing growing demographics like Hispanic voters Unmarried and younger voters much more socially liberal than the Party Another three years without a clear leader, adding to Party’s lack of clear direction Intransigent base means more good candidates losing primaries

2

2012 Elections: HISTORICAL CONTECT

Democrats have won the popular vote in 5 out of the 6 most recent presidential elections.

Since 1988, Democrats have won more than 300 electoral votes in four elections.

No Republican has won 300 or more electoral votes since 1988.

Democrats have won 18 states+DC (242 electoral votes) in all 6 of the previous presidential elections.

Young voters have overwhelmingly supported the Democratic candidate for President in the last 3 election cycles – shaping this generation’s long-term loyalties.

3

2012 PRESIDENTIAL RACE RESULTS

Obama 332* Romney 206

Source: Politico (as of 11/8 @ 12pm)

LA

FL*

WA

OR

NV

UT

AZ

WY

NM

MT

CO

ND

SD

NE

KS

OK

TX

IA

MO

AR

WI

IL

OH

NY

IN

PA

KY

WV

ME

TN

MS

AL

SC

NC

VA

GA

CT RI

MA

VT NH

DE MD

CA

AK

ID

MN

HI

MI

NJ

4 *FL not officially called

PRESIDENTIAL RACE RESULTS: 2004 - 2012

Candidates EVs* Popular Vote % of Vote

Obama 332* 60,602, 103 51.2%

Romney 206 57,776,942 48.8%

*Florida Not Officially Called

Obama 365 66,682,230 52.9%

McCain 173 58,343,671 45.7%

Bush 286 62,040,610 50.7%

Kerry 251 59,028,444 48.3%

2012

2008

2004

5 Source: Politico (as of 11/8 @ 12pm)

2012 CONGRESSIONAL & GOV RESULTS

Race Democrats Republicans Independent Undecided Gain/Loss

U.S. Senate 53 45 2 0 D +2

U.S. House 193 233 0 9 D +7

Governors 18 30 1 1

(WA) R +1

6 Source: Politico (as of 11/8 @ 12pm)

AFTER 3 CHANGE ELECTIONS…

A VOTE FOR STATUS QUO

7

US Senate

US House

113th Congress

112th Congress

111th Congress

110th Congress

109th Congress

Democrats 53 51 57 49 44

Republicans 45 47 41 49 55

Independents 2 2 2 2 1

113th Congress

112th Congress

111th Congress

110th Congress

109th Congress

Democrats 193 191 255 235 202

Republicans 233 241 178 199 232

Ind/Vacancies 9 Undecided 5 (Vacancies) 2 (Vacancies) 1 (Vacancy) 1

2012 VOTER TURNOUT

Source: GMU U.S. Elections Center * - Preliminary Estimate; Will Update As Info Becomes Available

Non-Presidential Year

Presidential Years 8

39%

48%

35%

50%

36%

55%

37%

57%

38%

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

85,724,135

132,645,504

90,682,968

Estimated up to

132,000,000*

2012 VOTER TURNOUT

Source: CNN 9

89 89 87 85 87 83 81

77 74 72

9 10 9 10 8 10 10 11 13 13

1 2 2 3 2 5 6 8 9

10

1 1 2 2 2 3 0

20

40

60

80

100

1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

White Black Hispanic Asian

Turnout – The White Share of the Vote has Dropped 15 Points Since 1992

2012 & 2004 – OBAMA & BUSH NUMBERS

10

Approval 49% 49%

Right Track 42% 41%

Head To Head 48% Obama 47% Romney

48% Bush 47% Kerry

POPULAR VOTE 51.2% 50.7%

The last NBC/WSJ polls in 2012 and 2004 show very similar numbers between Obama and Bush...

Source: NBC/WSJ; Popular Vote - Politico

2012 PRESIDENTIAL EXIT POLL RESULTS

2012 2008

TOTAL Obama Romney TOTAL Obama McCain

Male 47% 45% 52% 47% 49% 48%

Female 53% 55% 44% 53% 56% 43%

White 72% 39% 59% 74% 43% 55%

African American 13% 93% 6% 13% 95% 4%

Hispanic 10% 71% 27% 9% 67% 31%

Asian 3% 73% 26% 2% 62% 35%

18-29 19% 60% 37% 18% 66% 32%

30-44 27% 52% 45% 29% 52% 46%

45-64 38% 47% 51% 37% 50% 49%

65 and Older 16% 44% 56% 16% 45% 53%

Democrat 38% 92% 7% 39% 89% 10%

Republican 32% 6% 93% 32% 9% 90%

Independent 29% 45% 50% 29% 52% 44%

Source: CNN 11

2012 ELECTORATE COMPOSITE – Hispanic Vote

Source: CNN 12

71 67

53

27 31

40

201220082004

Democrat Republican

18% Increase in Democrat Share of Hispanic Vote Since 2004

2012 ELECTORATE COMPOSITE - PARTY

Source: CNN 13

35 35 35 35 37

33 32

26 27 26 27 26 28 29

37 38 39 39 37

39 38

1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

GOP IND DEM

Democrats: Same Advantage as 2008

2012 ELECTORATE COMPOSITE

Source: CNN 14

America Remains a Center-Right Country

33 30

33

29

34 34 35

45

49 47

50

45 44 41

18 21

27

20 21 22 25

1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

Conservative Moderate Liberal

Congressional Elections

2012 U.S. SENATE RESULTS

LA

FL

WA

OR

NV

UT

AZ

WY

NM

MT

CO

ND

SD

NE

KS

OK

TX

IA

MO

AR

WI

IL

OH

NY

IN

PA

KY

WV

ME

TN

MS

AL

SC

NC

VA

GA

CT RI

MA

VT NH

DE MD

CA

AK

ID

MN

HI

MI

NJ

Dem Won (23):

GOP Won (8):

Ind Won (2):

The 113th Congress: Democrats: 53 (+2)

Republicans: 45 (-2)

Independents: 2 (+1)

16

GOP: Lost IN, MA, ME; Pickup NE

Source: Politico (as of 11/8 @ 12pm)

2012 U.S. HOUSE RESULTS

LA

FL

WA

OR

NV

UT

AZ

WY

NM

MT

CO

ND

SD

NE

KS

OK

TX

IA

MO

AR

WI

IL

OH

NY

IN

PA

KY

WV

ME

TN

MS

AL

SC

NC

VA

GA

CT RI

MA

VT NH

DE MD

CA

AK

ID

MN

HI

MI

NJ

Dem Takeover (13):

GOP Takeover (11):

17

The 113th Congress:

Democrats: 193 (+7)

Republicans: 233 (+0)

Undecided: 9

Takeover: Seat changed parties – defeated incumbent or open seat. Source: Politico (as of 11/8 @ 12pm)

2012 U.S. HOUSE RESULTS

18

Republicans (12)

• FL-26: Rivera • IL-08: Walsh • IL-10: Dold • IL-11: Biggert • IL-17: Schilling • MD-06: Bartlett • MN-08: Cravaack • NH-01: Guinta • NH-02: Bass • NY-18: Hayworth • NY-24: Buerkle • TX-23: Canseco

Defeated House Incumbents

Democrats (10)

• CA-15: Stark • CA-30: Berman • CA-35: Baca • CA-44: Richardson • IA-03: Boswell • KY-06: Chandler • NY-27: Hochul • NC-08: Kissel • OH-16: Sutton • PA-12: Critz

Source: Politico (as of 11/8 @ 12pm)

The 113th Congress:

Democrats: 192 (+5)

Republicans: 233 (+0)

Undecided: 10

State Elections

2012 GOVERNORS ELECTIONS

20

LA

FL

WA

OR

NV

UT

AZ

WY

NM

MT

CO

ND

SD

NE

KS

OK

TX

IA

MO

AR

WI

IL

OH

NY

IN

PA

KY

WV

ME

TN

MS

AL

SC

NC

VA

GA

CT RI

MA

VT NH

DE MD

CA

AK

ID

MN

HI

MI

NJ

Dem Won (6):

GOP Won (4):

Undecided (1):

GOP: Pickup NC

Gov Control: Democrats: 18 (-1)

Republicans: 30 (+1)

Independents: 1 (+0) 1 Undecided

Source: Politico (as of 11/8 @ 12pm)

2012 STATE LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS

Source: NCSL (as of 11/8 @ 12pm) 21

Democrat To Republican (4)

• Alaska Senate

• Arkansas Senate

• Arkansas House

• Wisconsin Senate

Legislatures Changing Control

Republican To Democrat (7) • Colorado House

• Maine Senate

• Maine House

• Minnesota Senate

• Minnesota House

• New Hampshire House

• New York Senate

• Oregon House

2013 STATE GOVERNMENT CONTROL

LA

FL

WA

OR

NV

UT

AZ

WY

NM

MT

CO

ND

SD

NE

KS

OK

TX

IA

MO

AR

WI

IL

OH

NY

IN

PA

KY

WV

ME

TN

MS

AL

SC

NC

VA

GA

CT RI

MA

VT NH

DE MD

CA

AK

ID

MN

HI

MI

NJ

R Control (22):

Split Control (12):

D Control (14):

Non-Partisan Leg (1):

Undecided (1):

22 Source: NCSL (as of 11/8 @ 12pm)

LOOKING AHEAD: 2014 U.S. SENATE

23 23

LA

FL

WA

OR

NV

UT

AZ

WY

NM

MT

CO

ND

SD

NE

KS

OK

TX

IA

MO

AR

WI

IL

OH

NY

IN

PA

KY

WV

ME

TN

MS

AL

SC

NC

VA

GA

CT RI

MA

VT NH

DE MD

CA

AK

ID

MN

HI

MI

NJ

Blue State /

Dem Held (13):

Blue State /

GOP Held (1):

Red State /

GOP Held (12):

Red State /

Dem Held (7):

LOOKING AHEAD: 2013/14 GOVERNORS

LA

FL

WA

OR

NV

UT

AZ

WY

NM

MT

CO

ND

SD

NE

KS

OK

TX

IA

MO

AR

WI

IL

OH

NY

IN

PA

KY

WV

ME

TN

MS

AL

SC

NC

VA*

GA

CT RI

MA

VT NH

DE MD

CA

AK

ID

MN

HI

MI

NJ*

24

Blue State /

Dem Held (12):

Blue State /

GOP Held (11):

Red State /

GOP Held (13):

Red State /

Dem Held (1):

Ind Held (1):

* - 2013 Race (NJ, VA)

Thank You