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Keynesian Circular-Flow Analysis
Keynes’s vision of the economy suggests a circular-flow framework—in which earning and spending are brought into balance by changes in the level of employment.
The Keynesian Vision
Graphically, the circular flow appears as the Keynesian cross, the cross’s intersection identifying the particular state of the economy in which income and expenditures are in balance.
The Income-Expenditure Framework
BUSINESSORGANIZATIONS
WORKERS
FACTOROWNERS
CONSUMERS
LABOR AND OTHERFACTOR SERVICES
INCOME
THECIRCULAR-FLOW
FRAMEWORK
BUSINESSORGANIZATIONS
WORKERS
FACTOROWNERS
CONSUMERS
LABOR AND OTHERFACTOR SERVICES
INCOME
GOODS ANDSERVICES
EXPENDITURES
Let the speed of rotation indicate the strength (fast) or weakness (slow) of
the economy.
LABORINPUT
REALWAGERATE S
D
LABORINPUT
OUTPUT
REALINCOME
C + I
F(K0,L)
BUSINESSORGANIZATIONS
WORKERS
FACTOROWNERS
CONSUMERS
INCOME
EXPENDITURES
In Keynesian equilibrium,INCOME equals EXPENDITURES.
Y = EY = C + I + G
45o
E = Y
EX
PE
ND
ITU
RE
S
INCOME
The circular character of the flow suggests an equality of left-half flow and right-half flow---as represented by a forty-five degree line passing through the origin.
EXPENDITURES, which constitute the left half of the circular flow, is represented on the vertical axis.
INCOME, which constitutes the right half of the circular flow, is represented on the horizontal axis.
The economy is in a Keynesian equilibrium somewhere along the 45o line—the line itself identifying all possible income-expenditure equilibrium points.
As taught at all levels, the consumption function is an essential component of the Keynesian framework. The presumed stability of this function underlies Keynesian thinking.
EX
PE
ND
ITU
RE
S
INCOME
CONSUMPTION
INVESTMENT
INCOME
C = a + bY
C + I
45oa
b
1
Consumption and Investment (as well as Government Spending) are portrayed as additive components of total spending. The three components are distinguished largely in terms of their stability characteristics: stable (C ), unstable (I), and stabilizing (G).
A wholly private macroeconomy achieves an income-expenditure equilibrium when Y = C + I. Note that income itself (rather than prices, wages, or the interest rate) is the equilibrating variable.
Investment depends neither on (current) income nor on the rate of interest. It depends only on profit expectations, which themselves are not well-anchored in economic reality.
Keynes would say the investors are moved by the “animal spirits.”
EX
PE
ND
ITU
RE
S
INCOME
C = a + bY
C + I
Suppose that a = 120 and b = 0.60.
In equilibrium, Y = E
So, Y = C + I
Y = a + bY + I
Y = 120 + 0.60Y + 240
Y – 0.60Y = 120 + 240
0.40Y = 360
Y = 900
b
a
C = 120 + 0.60Y
And suppose we know that investors are spending 240 on investment goods.
I = 240
Can we calculate the equilibrium level of income that corresponds to these parameters?
1
Yeq = 900
a = 120
b = 0.60
Though not emphasized by Keynes, full employment implies that the economy is operating on its production possibility frontier, the PPF itself being defined in terms of sustainable output levels of consumption and investment goods.
Yfe
According to Keynes, it is only by “accident or design” that the economy is actually performing at its full-employment potential.
We assume here that, initially, full employment conditions prevail—if only by accident.
EX
PE
ND
ITU
RE
S
INCOME
C = a + bY
L
W
S
D
C + I
INVESTMENT
CO
NS
UM
PT
ION
In Keynesian macroeconomics, full employment implies that the labor market clears at the going wage rate, the going wage itself having emerged during a period in which the economy was experiencing no macroeconomic problems.
LABOR INCOME
Labor income (YL = WL) is fully representative of total income, such that changes in labor income stand in direct proportion to changes in total income.
EX
PE
ND
ITU
RE
S
C = a + bY
C + I
INCOMEYfe
LABORINPUT
REALWAGERATE S
D
LABORINPUT
OUTPUT
REALINCOME
C + I
F(K0,L)
EX
PE
ND
ITU
RE
S
C = a + bY
C + I
INCOMEYfe
E < Y
EX
PE
ND
ITU
RE
S
INCOME
N
W
S
D
ΔY
EXCESS INVENTORIES
ΔI
C + I
C = a + bY
ΔI
ΔY = 1(1 – b)
According to Keynes, a collapse of investment activity (the collapse being attributed to a waning of “animal spirits”) is the primary cause of economic downturns. In response to reduced investment and hence reduced employment opportunities, the economy spirals downward into recession and possibly into deep depression.
Note that the going wage keeps going—even after the market conditions that gave rise to it are gone.
The simple investment-spending multiplier, 1/(1-b), quantifies the extent of the downward spiraling. Yfe
E = Y
INCOME
CONSUMPTION
INVESTMENT
900
ΔY ΔY = 1(1 – 0.6)ΔY
EX
PE
ND
ITU
RE
S
INCOME
N
S
D
W
C = a + bY
C + I
In the Keynesian construction, prices and the wage rate are sticky downward.
But note that they’re not stuck too high. They’re stuck just right. The going wage rate will clear the labor market once again—as soon as spending and hence labor demand recover to their full-employment levels.
A further loss of confidence on the part of the business community will send the economy even further from its full-employment potential.
ΔIΔY = 1(1 – b)
ΔI = 100
(100) = 250
900 650
ΔY = 1(1 – 0.6)
(100) = 250
ΔI = 100
400
900
Recovery may be self-initiating. Waning animal spirits may become waxing animal spirits. In due time, a pressing need to maintain or replace depreciating capital may account for the lower turning point of a bust-and-recovery sequence.
(Keynes, of course, preferred not to wait it out. He advocated make-work projects, deficit spending, and monetary stimulation to get the economy turned around.)
EX
PE
ND
ITU
RE
S
INCOME
C = a + bYC + I
N
S
D
W
Yfe
Yfe
Recovery may continue as further investment activity drives labor-demand back to its full-employment level...
EX
PE
ND
ITU
RE
S
INCOME
C + I
C = a + bY
N
S
D
W
EX
PE
ND
ITU
RE
S
C = a + bY
C + I
INCOMEYfe
Y = C + IC = C
Y – C = IS = I
Even in Keynesian equilibrium, saving equals investment. But it’s not the interest rate that does the equilibrating. Rather, it’s income that adjusts (spirals up or spirals down) until the saving-investment equality is established.
Even in a mixed economy, spending on consumption goods typically counts for about 70% of GDP. In this wholly private
economy, it would count for even more.
EX
PE
ND
ITU
RE
S
INCOME
C = a + bY
C + I
45o
a
b
1
In this wholly private economy, spending on investment goods accounts for the
remaining expenditures.
The “Keynesian Cross” marks the spot where income equals expenditures.
Yeq=Yfe
We assume here that, initially, full employment conditions prevail—though
only by accident.45o
Saving is represented by the vertical distance between the consumption equation and the 45O line. Saving is
negative for low levels of income and increasingly positive at higher levels.
(The 45O line allows income to be measured vertically as well as
horizontally.)
EX
PE
ND
ITU
RE
S
INCOME
C + I
C = a + bY
SA
VIN
G,
INV
ES
TM
EN
T
INCOME
a
-a
1
1-b
S = -a + (1-b)Y
I
Yeq=Yfe
Investment spending is determined exclusively by business psychology.
At each and every level of income, it is represented by the vertical separation
between C and C+I.
Clearly, saving equals investment at the same level of income at which
income equals expenditures.
So now, let’s net out consumption spending to show that S = I is an alternative equilibrium condition.
Y=0 and C=Y give us two points on the saving equation.
The slope of this line is 1-b, which together with the intercept (-a),
allows us to write the saving equation.
Investment is represented by a horizontal line.
Just by themselves, these two curves (S and I) identify the
income-expenditure equilibrium.
Finally, the shading on the S=I graph matches perfectly with the
shading on the Y=E graph.
45o
SA
VIN
G,
INV
ES
TM
EN
T
INCOME
S = -a + (1-b)Y
I
D
SS
AV
ING
,IN
VE
ST
ME
NT
S
I
SAVIING (S) INVESTMENT (D)
INCOME
RA
TE
OF
IN
TE
RE
ST
Market for Loanable Funds
D
SS
AV
ING
,IN
VE
ST
ME
NT S
I(r1)
I(r2) r2
r1
SAVIING (S) INVESTMENT (D)
INCOME
Keynes didn’t think I was a function of r…but we now know it is.
RA
TE
OF
IN
TE
RE
ST
Market for Loanable Funds
EX
PE
ND
ITU
RE
SC + I(r)
INCOMEY
C = a+ bY
EX
PE
ND
ITU
RE
S
C = a’ + bY
C + I(r1)
INCOMEY’Y
C + I(r2)
D
S
r2
r1
SAVIING (S) INVESTMENT (D)
RA
TE
OF
IN
TE
RE
ST
Market for Loanable Funds
I(r1) I(r2)
SA
VIN
G,
INV
ES
TM
EN
T
I(r1) I(r2)
INCOME
S
S’
S’