2011125_davidson

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Ortadoğu AnalizJanuary’11 Vol 3 - No 25

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AbstractWhen Mashallah Hosseini, the former Head of the Commission for Agriculture convened by the Islamic Consultative Assembly, addressed water issues in Iran he appealed to Iranian officials as follows: “12 billion cubic meter fresh water, which enter Turkey and Iraq from Iran, plus adjacent water resources amounting up to 20 billion cubic meter, which flow into the Persian gulf from the streams in the south like Karkha, Karun and Cherahi, remain entirely unused”.1 Hereby one is mistaken to assume that this issue was newly brought on the agenda – in fact water supply as a determinant factor in Iran’s policy towards her neighboring countries had been already playing a crucial role prior to the Iraq War in 2003.

OMINOUS TOKENS IN STRAINED IRAN-IRAQ RELATIONS: ARE CONFLICTING INTERESTS ON WATER SUPPLY HERALDİNG A NEW CRİSİS?

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David LEUPOLD ORSAM Middle East Research Assistant

The purpose of meeting Iran’s energy demand by building several dams on Karun River may have an harmful effect on the agricultural sector of Iraq.

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As the rivers like the Karun River in the west of Iran are mostly of trans-boundary nature, so does the water issue emerge as a challenge with massive impact not only on a domestic but also on a trans-national level across its borders.

Introduction

In face of serious bottlenecks both In Iran and Iraq, coinciding with an axis shift in Iraq’s do-mestic policy on behalf of Shi’i groups, serious concerns have been raised recently on regard to the question whether this silent crisis is likely to reach the verge of escalation in the next future.

For this reason, in the first part of my article I will determine and briefly discuss various do-mestic factors which already have or will emerge as challenges for Iran’s water policy. In the sec-ond part, I will focus on the significance of a well-balanced water policy of all actors in the Middle East with hindsight on the Shatt al-Arab issue, delineating the historical events which ultimately led to the Iran-Iraq war in geostrate-gic terms. In conclusion, I will critically reflect about the impact of Iran’s water policy on her neighboring country Iraq in an attempt to strike a link between the recent tension in the Iran-Iraq relations and the national interests of both countries on this particular issue.

An Outline of the Middle East water issue and the Detrimental Impact of Domestic Upheav-als When we look back into history we see that scarcity of water resources has always been a crucial problem in the Middle East. However, in face of a rapidly growing population throughout the region, this issue is likely to emerge as one of the greatest threats to regional security and may considerably hamper the peace process.

In a region which has been dominated by a

struggle on fossil fuels, in particular crude oil, or sectarian-ethnic clashes until now we may wit-ness a fundamental change of the overall condi-tions as the parameter water may influence the dynamics of the considered countries, first on a domestic scale, yet later on with an international impact. In face of this potential threat, the prep-aration and implementation of farsighted, well-balanced water policies under consideration of latest scientific results and technological devel-opments are of utter importance to avert the fate of the “ever war-ridden” Middle East. In view of currently conflicting interests on wa-ter supply, illustrated by the example of Iran and Iraq in this article, I will try to emphasize the need for increased collaboration and better co-ordination in this field to benefit from synergy ef-fects instead of reckless competition which may deal serious damage to both sides, involved in the struggle for covering its own steadily rising, domestic water demand. The Shatt-al Arab cri-sis, which contributed significantly to the dete-rioration in the Iran-Iraq relations and entailed a resource-engulfing and relentless Iran-Iraq war throughout the 80s, may serve as a warning ex-ample as it sheds light on the destructiveness of policies based on the idea of preserving national interests irreconcilably regardless of the national interests of neighboring countries. In fact both Iran and Iraq are countries inter-nally weakened due to domestic issues which became obvious most recently in the aftermath of general elections. In the case of Iraq we face a country which is going through a critical period of re-orientation and upheavals after the disin-tegration of the Baath regime in 2003. As a mat-

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Mutual awareness for water demand, has to be increased on both sides to pave the way for a sustainable and fruitful cooperation for the benefit of both Iran and Iraq.

ter of fact, neither former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi’s (Arab) nationally oriented al-Haraka al-Wataniya al-Iraqiyya (Iraqi National Move-ment) nor current Prime Minister Nouri Al-Ma-liki’s Shi’i-oriented Itilaf Dawlat al-Qanun (Rule of Law Coalition) is likely to reconcile incongru-ous political interests for the sake of a common cause and to assert itself as the spearhead of Iraq’s estranged political groups, which are until now fragmented along a sectarian-ethnic axis. 2 However, in Iran controversial election results entailed months of violent clashes between gov-ernmental security forces and supporters of Me-

hdi Karroubi’s Hezb-e Etemad-e Melli3 (National Trust Party) and Mir-Hossein Mousavi’s Rah-e Sabz-e Omid4 (The Green Way of Hope), both candidates in the election who asserted that the result of the election was forged in favor of Ah-madinejad’s Etelaf-e Abadgaran-e Iran-e Eslami (Alliance of Builders of Islamic Iran).

Water Supply in Iran: a Vital Interest and Ma-jor Challenge According to the study paper Buhran-e Waziyet-e Ab dar Chihan wa Iran (Water Crisis in Iran and the World, 2009) worked out by Dr. Sadighe

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In view of the impeding danger of Iran adopting a reckless and irrecon-cilable policy towards its neighboring country Iraq, there is reason to believe that the water issue will emerge as the most detrimental force in the bilateral relations of the two countries.

Babran, scholar at Azad-e Eslami University, Te-heran, and director of a research group for sus-tainable growth and environmental protection, Iran will face a severe water crisis in the years to come. He points out that the rapid, high growth in population is the main reason for Iran’s in-creased demand for fresh water. According to demographical calculations, Iran will emerge as one of ten countries with the highest population by 2050 – a circumstance which is further wors-ened by the increasingly diverging gap between fresh water (demanded by households) and re-cyclable water resources available (sarane-ye ab tajdeedpazeer). 5 Furthermore recent scientific research indicates that deforestation and, in this context, the vast extinction of flora and fauna which is needed in the natural water purifica-tion process accord mainly for the increasing lack of drinkable water. As a matter of fact 60 % of Iranian territory is located in an arid zone, a weather zone characterized by high tempera-tures and less rainfall. According to an article published by the RFI the Iranian provinces of Sistan, Baluchestan and partially Khorasan are most strongly affected by the water shortage.6 In order to meet the high water demand Iran initi-ated projects to exploit water reservoirs below the surface, yet the use of such state-of-the-art techniques are unlikely to be affordable on a large scale. Besides that an increasingly falling water level further compounds the exploitation of sub-terrestrial rivers. As a matter of fact most of the rivers which ran around 40 meter below the surface in the past, now run 250-300 meter below the surface – which creates both a scien-tific and an economic challenge.

For that reason the value of drinkable water in Middle East cannot be overestimated and in face of the fact that a shortage in water supply will emerge as the most grievous problem in Iran’s domestic politics, the importance of water is likely to eclipse even the supply of such crucial resources like crude oil and electricity. Hereby especially the vast demand of the agricultural sector creates major problems. According to Abdul Ghafar Shojaa, a scholar who working in the field of agricultural engineering and natural resources, stated that 94% of water available is consumed by the agricultural sector and only a remaining share of 6 % is consumed by private households and the industrial sector. 7 As the rivers like the Karun River in the west of Iran are mostly of trans-boundary nature, so does the water issue emerge as a challenge with massive impact not only on a domestic but also on a trans-national level across its borders. In view of the impeding danger of Iran adopt-ing a reckless and irreconcilable policy towards its neighboring country Iraq, there is reason to believe that the water issue will emerge - apart from the Fakka oil field issue8 – as the most det-rimental force in the bilateral relations of the two countries which might eventually cause a profound rupture reminiscent of the rivalry trig-gering the Iran-Iraq war in 1980. The Geopolitical Aspect of the Iraq-Iran War: Shatt-al Arab As a matter of fact, the power struggle which crystallized around the area of Shatt-al Arab

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contributed significantly to the eruption of the Iran-Iraq crisis.9 “The Shatt-al-Arab is the es-tuary of the Euphrates and Tigris Rivers and it forms the Iranian-Iraqi boundary from its mouth on the Persian Gulf to appoint almost halfway between Khorramshahr and Basra, a distance of about fifty-five miles. Before 1847, the Shatt-al-Arab was an inland river under the sovereignty of the Ottoman Empire. In 1847, the weakening Ottoman Empire, under the Treaty of Ezerum, formally ceded to the Persian Empire the city of Khorramshahr, the island of Abadan and the anchorage and land on the eastern shore of the Shatt. Also, freedom of navigation throughout the Shatt was guaranteed to Persian vessels.”10 However, when we look back into history we see that in the following course of events this region should again emerge as a disputed issue.

In fact, upon the establishment of Joint Com-missions which scrutinized the legal claims of the river bank region, an agreement was reached and protocols were signed in 1911 and 1914 re-spectively. The latter protocol, which is referred to as the Constantinople Protocol, reaffirmed the eastern bank of the river as the boundary territory of Iraq whilst granting Iranian claims on various islands within the river. In the Post-WWI period however, Iran came up with new claims as it refused to accept the former proto-col on legal grounds, arguing that the protocol was no longer valid as one of its signatories, the Ottoman Empire, did not longer exist. The state of Iraq, which had evolved from the Ottoman Empire upon unification of the three provinces Bagdad, Basrah and Mosul, persisted on the idea of being its legitimate successor, thus repudiat-ing this argumentation and the claims related

Iraq has serious problems in water management and this problems severe Iraq’s water scarcity. For example, Mosul Dam is the Iraq’s largest dam but it needs a total reconstruction.

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to it. Iran, however, succeeded in regaining its sovereignty over the port city of Khorram-shahr, which is located near the confluence with the Haffar arm of the Karun River, the anchor-age surrounding Abadan and the eastern shore of the river as the boundary was moved to the valley trail in the middle of the river.11 However the dispute on this issue was not allayed as both sides refused to respect the conditions laid down in the agreement on the pretext that it was worked out under the pressure of Great Britain. In 1969 Mohammad Reza Pahlawi, the then Shah of Iran, scented unprecedented op-portunities to gain leverage over a weakened and crisis-ridden Iraq and consequently pushed through its demands by means of military forc-es. In this context, Iran took also advantage of Kurdish insurgents, in the first instance to exalt its influence over Iraqi domestic policy and to create a tense environment in which Iraq would have got no choice but to waive from its claims on the specific territory. On this regard, Iran provided Mela Mistefa Barzani with sophisti-cated artillery and supported the militia of the Partîya Demokrata Kurdistan (Kurdish Demo-cratic Party) against the Baath regime estab-lished in Baghdad. 12

Yet later on Iran abandoned its support for Kurdish separatist movements most probably due to the fact that the potential establishment of Kurdistan in northern Iraq would also jeop-ardize its own national integrity. Nevertheless, Iraq, having suffered from a death toll of 60,000 casualties during the Kurdish uprisings, was not on a par with its strengthened adversary and had

to give in to a re-demarcation of the boundary on behalf of Iran. This power constellation resulted in the Algiers Accord of 1975, in which Iraq ir-revocably reaffirmed the borderline according to the valley trail, thus resigning to the irretrievable loss of the territories on the Eastern side of the Shatt al-Arab. Conversely, Iran guaranteed Iraq to abandon its support for the Iraqi Kurds – a tactical move which, as mentioned above, also complied with Iran’s own domestic interests. In 1979, in the wake of the Islamic Revolution in Iran, Saddam Hussein seized the opportunity to hoodwink a domestically weakened Iran and re-gain the territories east of Shatt al-Arab by mili-tary force. The occupation of this territory trig-gered the Iran-Iraq war, a war to whom the Ira-nians refer to as the Jang-e Tahmili (the Imposed War) and the Iraqis as the Defā’-e-Moqaddas (the Holy Defense). As a matter of fact this war, which lasted for eight years and caused over 1 million casualties and a total economic loss of estimated 1000 billion US dollar, ended without any territorial changes and both parties agreed again on the Algiers Accord as the binding docu-ment. Water Supply: Eye of Contention in the Post-2003 Iraq War Period The issue of water supply became evident most crudely in the most recent Iraqi water crisis. As a matter of fact, a devastating drought stroke Iraq in the 2007-2008, continuing until 2009.13 Ac-cording to a statement made by the Foreign Ag-ricultural Service of the U.S. Department of Ag-riculture, in particular northern Iraq is affected

The Gotvand Dam, Masjed Solayman Dam, Shahid Abbaspour Dam, Karun-3 and Karun-4, respectively, all serve the purpose of meeting Iran’s energy demand, but at the same time may have an harmful effect on the agricultural sector of Iraq.

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worse by the drought, causing substantial crop failure of the rain-fed wheat, which is essential to Iraq’s nutrition supply. Iraq, struggling to meet its domestic water sup-ply, reiterated its complaints among others vis-à-vis Iran, which they blame for unfairly re-stricting the flow of water with dams and other infrastructure.14 In this context Amir Salman, agricultural director in the Southern province of Basrah, pointed out that the water reaching Tigris and Euphrates was not sufficient, together with critical remark that Iran’s diversion of the Karun River had “further compounded the cri-sis”.15 Hereby he is alluding to the diversion of the Karun River, originally a tributary converg-ing in the Shatt al-Arab, as a result of several dams built by the Iranians. The various dams, were built mainly for the purpose of exploiting the river’s potential as a hydroelectric power site. The Gotvand Dam, Masjed Solayman Dam, Shahid Abbaspour Dam, Karun-3 and Karun-4, respectively, all serve the purpose of meeting Iran’s energy demand, but at the same time may have an harmful effect on the agricultural sector of Iraq.16 In this context it is striking to see that water supply emerges as an issue of national interest, uniting an Iraqi society otherwise fragmented by sectarian and ethnic disruptions. Hereby it is worth noting that, contrary to expectations, Shi’i-oriented groups in the center and south of Iraq refrain from closing ranks with their Shi’i neighbors but take a critical stance based on na-tional interests instead. In this context, meetings of ORSAM experts with Qusei Al-Suhayl, cur-rent Deputy speaker of the Iraqi parliament, on February 9, 2010, and in the first week of No-vember, 2010, revealed that the concern on re-gard to neighboring countries’ negative impact on domestic water supply is also shared by high-ranking officials of the Shi’i-oriented Sadr Move-ment. This opinion was also backed by the Shi’i-oriented Fadila Party in the region of Basrah during two further meetings of ORSAM experts

in June 2009 and February 2010, respectively. In fact, Shi’i politicians expressed their grievances on regard to the negative impact of neighboring countries, including Iran, most bluntly thus re-butting the thesis of a Shi’i Iraqi population like-ly to be utilized by Iran – a thesis often put for-ward but hardly ever questioned. Criticism was also raised in 2009 on an official level as the then Iraqi water minister, Latif Rashid, complained that no dialogue could be established with Iran on that issue, blaming Tehran for ignoring Iraq’s national interests17. Hereby he stressed the idea that the hands of Iraqi authorities were tied as Iran is located upstream and thus in the stron-ger position. This idea is also shared by Akram Ahmad Rasul, general director of dams at the Ministery of Water Resources, who stressed the importance of the Sirwan River and the smaller branch of the Zab River – both springing from Iranian territories. In this context he pointed out that the change in its stream direction was seriously jeopardizing Iraq’s aim to secure water resources, bearing in mind that 70% of the rivers water comes from Iranian land.18 Iraqi officials themselves have also faced criticism for the fail-ure to draw up an effective water-pricing policy in face of a rapid growth in population, a fact which aggravated the current problems.

Conclusion In conclusion, I would like to emphasize the se-riousness of this issue, referring to a U.N. report published in 2003, stating that 30 of 37 water conflicts within the last 50 years took stage in the Middle East, thus competition in the field of water supply among countries of this region is regarded as a precarious circumstance and rais-es worries about military conflicts, which could arise from it.19 Hereby it is important to note that endeavors of Iran to maintain its water sup-ply has not only strained its relations with Iraq, but also most recently with Afghanistan. In fact, the works on the rehabilitation of the Kajaki dam powerhouse, initiated by ISAF forces in 2007, was faced with stern concern by Iranian officials

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as it controls the water flow to Iran.20 Iran, hav-ing suffered a severe setback in its endeavors to maintain control over water resources along its Eastern border, may turn west to secure its economic interests. In this context, Teheran is unlikely to restrict itself on exerting exterior po-litical pressure on state-level only but will also try to gain leverage as an unofficial player in the decision-making processes on a domestic level. In order to forestall a conflict of interest flaring up, eventually harming both countries, nego-tiations between both countries on this subject

DİPNOTLAR

have to be encouraged by all means. Hereby mutual awareness for national interests, and in particular water demand, has to be increased on both sides to pave the way for a sustainable and fruitful cooperation for the benefit of both Iran and Iraq. In this context, the most recent call for cooperation on border and security is-sues alongside a meeting between Mostafa Mo-hammad Najjar, Iranian Minister of Interior Af-fairs, and his Iraqi counterpart, Jawad al-Bulani, in Tehran 2010 might form the milestone on the way to rapprochement.21

1 Aftabnews: Cheshm-e Andaz Menba’a-ye Ab dar Iran: Khater Nazdik Ast (the danger is near: a view on Iran’s water supply), 2009-04-05 (ordibehesht 5, 1388); http://www.aftabnews.ir/vdciwpav.t1ayq2bcct.html (last access: 2010-12-06)

2 Çubukçu,Mete/Özhan,Taha.SETAAnaliz:İşgalAltındaİstikrarArayışları–2010IrakSeçimleri(SearchforStabi-lityinTimesofOccupation–2010ElectionsinIraq),Ankara,2010

3 BBC Farsi Online. Mehdi Karroubi:Ba Ebtal-e Entehabat Aramesh-ra Be Jamiah Bazgerdanid (If elections are dec-lared null and void society will come to rest), 2010-06-22, http://www.bbc.co.uk/persian/iran/2009/06/090622_ag_short_news.shtml (last access: 2010-06-10)

4 BBC Farsi Online. Mir-Hossein Mousavi: Heghaigh-e ra Warune Jelwe Midahad (truths seem to be distorted), 2010-06-25, http://www.bbc.co.uk/persian/iran/2009/06/090625_op_ir88_mousavi_statement8.shtml (last ac-cess: 2010-06-10)

5 Babran, Sadighe. Buhran-e Waziyet-e Ab dar Chihan wa Iran (Water Crisis in Iran and the World), Merkez-e Tahqiqat-e Estratejik, Teheran, 2009; http://www.csr.ir/center.aspx?lng=fa&abtid=04&semid=79 (last access: 2010-12-07)

6 RFI Farsi: Kambud-e Ab-e Buhran-e Modiriyet-e Menba’a-ye Ab (Water Shortage and Trouble in the Water Supply Department) 2008-04-04; http://www.rfi.fr/actufa/articles/100/article_1759.asp (last access: 2010-12-05)

7 Aftabnews: Cheshm-e Andaz Menba’a-ye Ab dar Iran: Khater Nazdik Ast (the danger is near: a view on Iran’s water supply), 2009-04-05 (ordibehesht 5, 1388); http://www.aftabnews.ir/vdciwpav.t1ayq2bcct.html (last access: 2010-12-06)

8 TAZ Online: Iran bereitet Maliki kopfzerbrechen (Iran brings Maliki into trouble) , 2010-01-21; http://www.taz.de/1/politik/asien/artikel/1/iran-bereitet-maliki-kopfzerbrechen/ (last access: 2010-12-05)

9 Martinson, Martin J. (U.S. Major): The Iran-Iraq War: Struggle Without an End, Marine Corps Command and Staff College, 1984,; http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/report/1984/MJM.htm (last access: 2010-12-06)

10 Martinson, Martin J. (U.S. Major): The Iran-Iraq War: Struggle Without an End, Marine Corps Command and Staff College, 1984,; http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/report/1984/MJM.htm (last access: 2010-12-06)

11 Chisholm, Hugh, ed (1911). “Muhamrah”. Encyclopædia Britannica (Eleventh ed.). Cambridge University Press12 McDowall, David. A Modern History of the Kurds. London: IB Tauris, 2007 ed. p. 32513 NASA: Eart Observatory. Natural Hazards. Drought in Iraq; http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.

php?id=38914 (last access: 2010-12-06)14 Radio Free Europe. Iraq Tussles With Neighbors Over Water, 2009-09-13; http://www.rferl.org/content/Iraq_Tus-

sles_With_Neighbors_Over_Water/1821603.html (last access: 2010-12-05)15 Radio Free Europe. Iraq Tussles With Neighbors Over Water, 2009-09-13; http://www.rferl.org/content/Iraq_Tus-

sles_With_Neighbors_Over_Water/1821603.html (last access: 2010-12-05)16 Iran Water and Power Resources Development Co. Technical Information; http://en.iwpco.ir/default.aspx (last ac-

cess: 2010-12-05)17 The National: Iraq’s new war is a fight on water; http://www.thenational.ae/news/worldwide/middle-east/iraqs-

new-war-is-a-fight-for-water?pageCount=0 (last access: 2010-12-20)18 Iraq Updates: Kurdistan water resources need protection; http://admin.iraqupdates.net/p_articles.php/arti-

cle/18117 (last access: 2010-12-20)19 Radio Free Europe. UN: Report Warns Of World Water Crisis In Coming Decades, 2003-03-05;, 2009-09-13;

http://www.rferl.org/content/article/1102420.html (last access: 2010-12-06)20 Guardian Newspaper, Online Edition: Power Projection, 2008-09-04; http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentis-

free/2008/sep/04/afghanistan (last access: 2010-12-06)21 Fars News Agency: Iran, Iraq to boost border cooperation, 2010-10-16; http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.

php?nn=8907241648 (last access: 2010-12-24)

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2011125_davidson