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2011 Southern CaliforniaVisitor Industry Outlook
Conference
CIC Research, Inc.8361 Vickers St.
San Diego, CA 92111858-637-4000
www.cicresearch.com
The Disneyland HotelAnaheim, CA
November 10, 2011
Ten Years After 911
2
The World Trade Center Memorial Fountain
What Has Happened Since?
?
4
Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan
5
Wildfires, Hurricanes, Tsunami, Earthquakes, Disease, & Volcanos
7
Heightened Airport Security
Southern California Perspective
8
Southern California Perspective
Southern California (SoCal)- 22.7 million population
- 8.9 million employees California:
- 37.2 million CA population (SoCal=61%)- 16.0 million CA employees (SoCal=56%)
United States:- 313 million US population (SoCal=7%)- 140 million US employees (SoCal=6%)
9
2011 SoCal Hotel Room Inventory
Sources: CIC Research, LACVB, AOCVCB, SDCVB, & STR. 10
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Rooms 108,102 58,296 55,883 42,232 9,768 9,183 8,288 8,261 2,600
L.A. SD OC River./
S. Bern.Kern
S Barb/ S Maria
SLO Ventura Imperial
303,000 Rooms 110.5 Mil. Room Nights
Avail. 68.3% Occ. Rate 75.5 Mil. Room Nights
Sold
Room Inventory
SoCal Hotel Rooms Sold
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011p 2012f
Rms Sold 68.4 M 72.9 M 75.7 M 75.3 M 75.3 M 73.0 M 67.2 M 71.4 M 75.5 M 77.4 M
0
20
40
60
80
100
Sources: CIC Research, LACVB, AOCVCB, SDCVB, PKF & STR.
11
Millions of Room Nights
No change 2005 - 2007
SoCal Hotel Rooms Revenue
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011p 2012f
$Billions $6.43 $7.11 $7.84 $8.46 $9.08 $9.03 $7.46 $7.91 $8.73 $9.25
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
Sources: CIC Research, LACVB, AOCVCB, SDCVB, PKF & STR.
12
$ Billions
Peak
International Visitors to the U.S.
Millions
Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, OTTI/CIC Research, October 2011 forecast. 13
0 M
10 M
20 M
30 M
40 M
50 M
60 M
70 M
Millions 51.2 46.9 43.6 41.2 46.1 49.2 51.0 56.0 57.9 55.0 59.8 62.3 64.4
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011p 2012f
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010p 2011fMillions 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.6 2.9
0 M
1 M
2 M
3 M
4 M
SoCal Ports of Entry-All Overseas Visitor Arrivals
Arrivals in Millions
Source: CIC Research & Dept. of Homeland Security.
14
5.1
4.1
3.63.2
3.73.9
4.1
3.53.2
2.9
3.4 3.2
0 M
1 M
2 M
3 M
4 M
5 M
6 M
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 11p
Residents of Japan Visiting the U.S.
Millions
15Source: CIC Research & Dept. of Homeland Security.
0.60
0.50
0.790.32
0.37 0.380.33 0.30 0.28
0.230.26
0.29
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11p
SoCal Ports of Entry - Japan
Millions
Source: CIC Research & U.S. Dept. of Homeland Security
16
4.7
4.13.8 3.9
4.3 4.3 4.34.5 4.6
3.9 3.9 3.9
0 M
1 M
2 M
3 M
4 M
5 M
6 M
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011p
Residents of the U.K. to the U.S.
Millions
17Source: CIC Research & Dept. of Homeland Security.
0.370.33
0.28 0.28 0.27 0.280.26 0.26
0.280.25 0.26
0.30
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11p
SoCal Port of Entry - U.K. Residents
Millions
Source: CIC Research & U.S. Dept. of Homeland Security
18
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011p
Arrivals 407,130 405,698 519,955 581,773 603,275 669,536 689,927 723,576 904,247 1,078,76
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
Residents of Australia to the U.S.
Total U.S. Arrivals
19Source: CIC Research & Dept. of Homeland Security.
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011pArrivals 229,538 231,776 285,711 311,026 309,382 321,303 325,686 407,340 486,286 553,880
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
SoCal Arrivals from Australia
20Source: CIC Research & Dept. of Homeland Security.
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011p
Arrivals 225,565 157,326 202,544 270,272 320,450 397,405 492,958 524,817 801,738 1,100,78
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
Residents of China Visiting the U.S.
Total U.S. Arrivals
21Source: CIC Research & Dept. of Homeland Security.
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011pArrivals 51,496 35,797 47,301 52,782 58,093 67,805 83,327 90,781 133,192 192,063
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
SoCal Arrivals from China
22Source: CIC Research & Dept. of Homeland Security.
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011pMillions 14.7 M 14.1 M 15.3 M 16.7 M 17.3 M 17.3 M 18.0 M 17.4 M 16.5 M 16.7 M 17.5 M
0 M
5 M
10 M
15 M
20 M
Initiated Air Trips to SoCal*
Air Trips in Millions
23
*Bought air ticket somewhere outside of SoCal with SoCal as the destination.Source: USDOT, Origin & Destination Survey (OD1a).
Overnight Visitors to SoCal
24
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011p 2012f
Millions 40.4 38.2 37.4 39.8 40.9 43.4 43.2 42.4 40.7 38.3 39.5 40.8 41.2
0 M
10 M
20 M
30 M
40 M
50 M
Domestic Overnight Visitors to SoCal
Millions
25Source: CIC Research, Inc.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011p 2012f
Millions 6.9 5.9 5.0 4.8 5.3 5.6 5.6 5.9 6.1 5.6 6.1 6.4 6.6
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
SoCal Overnight International Visitors
Millions
26Source: CIC Research, Inc.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011p 2012f
Millions 47.3 44.1 42.4 44.6 46.2 49.0 48.8 47.9 46.8 43.9 45.6 47.2 47.8
0 M
10 M
20 M
30 M
40 M
50 M
60 MMillions
Total Overnight Visitors to SoCal
27Source: CIC Research, Inc.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011p 2012f
Billions $25.0 $22.9 $22.0 $22.6 $24.1 $26.4 $26.9 $28.0 $27.7 $24.5 $26.0 $27.4 $28.8
$0 B
$5 B
$10 B
$15 B
$20 B
$25 B
$30 B$ Billions
Total SoCal Overnight Visitor Spending
28Source: CIC Research, Inc.
SoCal Overnight Visitor Forecast
(2011 & 2012)¨ Visitors
47.2 M (2011 Preliminary) Up (3.5%)47.6 - 48.0 M (2012 Forecast) Up (1% to 2%)
¨ International Visitors6.4 M (2011 Preliminary) up (5%)6.5 - 6.7 M (2012 Forecast) Up (2% to 4%)
¨ Domestic Visitors40.8 M (2011 Preliminary) Up (3%)41.1 – 41.3 M (2012 Forecast) Up (1% to 1.5%)
¨ Spending$27.4 B (2011 Preliminary) Up (5.5%)$28.5 B - $29.0 B (2012 Forecast) Up (4% to 6%)
29
