2011 Project Update:2011 Project Update:Tropical Cyclone Impacts GraphicsTropical Cyclone Impacts Graphics

Item SR-16

Presentation GoalsPresentation Goals

• This presentation intends to do two things:This presentation intends to do two things:– First, remind us that there remains an open action regarding the

operable status of the Tropical Cyclone Impacts Graphics (TCIG).• The TCIG project is currently experimental

• The Pending Decision: Continue? / Discontinue? • Cannot go official until the AWIPS II era.

• All aspects base-lined, operations back-up functionality acquired, etc.

– Second, set the stage for discussing specific action items as submitted for this year.• Consider:

• Experiences of over a decade’s worth of events (2000-2010)

• Experiences from Hurricane Irene (2011)

Tropical Cyclone Impact Graphics

http://www.weather.gov/ghls

Innovation ???Innovation ???

• Pre-dates AWIPSPre-dates AWIPS• Pre-dates GFEPre-dates GFE• Pre-dates Segmented HLSPre-dates Segmented HLS• Pre-dates GraphicastsPre-dates Graphicasts• Pre-dates Private Sector EmulationsPre-dates Private Sector Emulations• Pre-dates Weather Ready Nation (WRN) BuzzPre-dates Weather Ready Nation (WRN) Buzz– ““situational awareness”situational awareness”– ““decision support services”decision support services”

Catalyst: Hurricane Floyd (1999)

Tropical Cyclone Impact Graphics

http://www.weather.gov/ghls

Innovation ???Innovation ???

• Pre-dates AWIPSPre-dates AWIPS• Pre-dates GFEPre-dates GFE• Pre-dates Segmented HLSPre-dates Segmented HLS• Pre-dates GraphicastsPre-dates Graphicasts• Pre-dates Private Sector EmulationsPre-dates Private Sector Emulations• Pre-dates Weather Ready Nation (WRN) BuzzPre-dates Weather Ready Nation (WRN) Buzz– ““situational awareness”situational awareness”– ““decision support services”decision support services”

Catalyst: Hurricane Floyd (1999)

Tropical Cyclone Impact Graphics

http://www.weather.gov/ghls

A New Era:

Build a little…

Test a little…

Field a little.

Risk ManagementRisk Management

• Room Survey: Room Survey: – ““During tropical cyclone events, what important During tropical cyclone events, what important

question do the Tropical Cyclone Impact Graphics question do the Tropical Cyclone Impact Graphics answer for the anxious user?”answer for the anxious user?”

A.) What conditions should I expect? A.) What conditions should I expect? B.) What impacts should I prepare for? B.) What impacts should I prepare for?

Tropical Cyclone Impact Graphics

http://www.weather.gov/ghls

Risk ManagementRisk Management

• Room Survey: Room Survey: – ““During tropical cyclone events, what important During tropical cyclone events, what important

question do the Tropical Cyclone Impact Graphics question do the Tropical Cyclone Impact Graphics answer for the anxious user?”answer for the anxious user?”

A.) What conditions should I expect? A.) What conditions should I expect? NONOB.) B.) What impacts should I prepare for? What impacts should I prepare for? CORRECT CORRECT

Tropical Cyclone Impact Graphics

http://www.weather.gov/ghls

Note: Each graphic (by hazard) answers this singular question as to facilitate users in their preparations (e.g., not to under-prepare or over-prepare).

Enhanced Web PagesEnhanced Web Pages

• Some improvements were made for 2011.– General housekeeping• Disposition• Code Clean-up

– Impacts Descriptions Audit• Pre-season Work Templates

– Availability of KML files• In addition to netcdf files

Tropical Cyclone Impact Graphics

http://www.weather.gov/ghls

Intuitiveness (?)Intuitiveness (?) True DSS (?)True DSS (?)

Push Button Meteorology ???Push Button Meteorology ???

• Room Survey: Room Survey: – ““For WFO forecasters, what are the anticipated For WFO forecasters, what are the anticipated

results when running the associated SmartTools?”results when running the associated SmartTools?”

A.) A finished depiction requiring no refinements.A.) A finished depiction requiring no refinements.B.) A draft depiction awaiting approval and/orB.) A draft depiction awaiting approval and/or refinements through the application of forecasterrefinements through the application of forecaster expertise. expertise.

Tropical Cyclone Impact Graphics

http://www.weather.gov/ghls

Push Button Meteorology ???Push Button Meteorology ???

• Room Survey: Room Survey: – ““For WFO forecasters, what are the anticipated For WFO forecasters, what are the anticipated

results when running the associated SmartTools?”results when running the associated SmartTools?”

A.) A finished depiction requiring no refinements. A.) A finished depiction requiring no refinements. NONOB.) A draft depiction awaiting approval and/orB.) A draft depiction awaiting approval and/or refinements through the application of forecasterrefinements through the application of forecaster expertise. expertise. CORRECT CORRECT

Tropical Cyclone Impact Graphics

http://www.weather.gov/ghls

Improved ToolsImproved Tools

• High Wind ToolHigh Wind Tool– WIKI Pages (all tools)WIKI Pages (all tools)– Developer’s VersionDeveloper’s Version– Final VersionFinal Version

• Prepare for officialPrepare for official• ““Forecaster’s Dashboard”Forecaster’s Dashboard”

– Tool of tools ???Tool of tools ???

Tropical Cyclone Impact Graphics

http://www.weather.gov/ghls

Not a deterministic wind swath !!!

Maps & KeysMaps & KeysPotential Wind Impacts for Coastal North Carolina

Improved ToolsImproved Tools

• Coastal Flood ToolCoastal Flood Tool– Developer’s VersionDeveloper’s Version

• National Elevation DatabaseNational Elevation Database• Land/sea mask; negative elevationsLand/sea mask; negative elevations

– Final VersionFinal Version

Note: Proper tide adjustments (datum);thoughtful edit areas with masks; future input of probabilistic inundation with tide.

Tropical Cyclone Impact Graphics

http://www.weather.gov/ghlsNot an inundation map !!!

Maps & KeysMaps & KeysPotential Surge Impacts for Coastal North Carolina

Improved ToolsImproved Tools

• Inland Flood & Tornado ToolsInland Flood & Tornado Tools– No Changes for 2011No Changes for 2011– Planned changes for Inland Flood ToolPlanned changes for Inland Flood Tool

• Take advantage of HPC’s PQPFTake advantage of HPC’s PQPF• Draft logic already in worksDraft logic already in works

– Input Data Sets Input Data Sets • Need to be base-linedNeed to be base-lined

– Logic Thresholds for Logic Thresholds for Low Low vs.vs. Very Low Levels Very Low Levels• Ensure that ranges are extended downward Ensure that ranges are extended downward

– SPC ProbabilitiesSPC Probabilities

Tropical Cyclone Impact Graphics

http://www.weather.gov/ghls

Usefulness of Gridded DataUsefulness of Gridded Data

• Potential Impact GridsPotential Impact Grids– Computed grid sets used Computed grid sets used

by HLS Formatter by HLS Formatter– Availability to NDFD ???Availability to NDFD ???

• IMPACT IMPACT vsvs. THREAT. THREAT– Timing question ???Timing question ???– Ensure to answer timing Ensure to answer timing

question with correct dataquestion with correct data

– GIS InterfacesGIS Interfaces– Bulleted / Tabular InformationBulleted / Tabular Information

• Other formattersOther formatters• Complete the PictureComplete the Picture

Tropical Cyclone Impact Graphics

http://www.weather.gov/ghls

Decision SupportDecision Support

• Identity– TCIG or gHLS (it makes a difference)

• More Comprehensive– Marine

• Wind & Seas• Marine-only events

Tropical Cyclone Impact Graphics

http://www.weather.gov/ghls

Decision SupportDecision Support

• Compare/Contrast Graphicasts and TCIGs – Local Information ???– Objective Information ???– GIS Intelligent Information ???– Decision-making Information ???

• Are you answering important questions ???

• The Public Deserves Briefings Too– EM Briefings – Recorded Briefings – Point-n-Click Briefings (future; web interface) ***

Tropical Cyclone Impact Graphics

http://www.weather.gov/ghls

RecommendationRecommendation

• If continued, reconvene TCIG Team (in early 2012) to identify the list of required steps to move closer to official.– Prioritize tasking items and ascribe deadlines.– Additional technical assistance will likely be

required from outside the team.• Web work (e.g., more comprehensive DSS Page)• Tool work (e.g., timing component)