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Demand ForecastingDemand ForecastingChapter 5Chapter 5
Logistics ManagementLogistics Management- Satish C. Ailawadi & Rakesh Singh- Satish C. Ailawadi & Rakesh Singh
Chapter 7Chapter 7Logistical ManagementLogistical Management- Donald J Bowersox & David J. Closs- Donald J Bowersox & David J. Closs
Chapter 5Chapter 5Elements of Logistics & Supply Chain Mgmt.Elements of Logistics & Supply Chain Mgmt.- Vijay Kumar Bhatia- Vijay Kumar Bhatia
Chapter 7Chapter 7Business StatisticsBusiness Statistics- Neena Joshi, Gomathi Venkat, S R Rege- Neena Joshi, Gomathi Venkat, S R Rege
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OutlineOutline
Definition
Scope of Demand Forecasting
* Purpose / Objectives of Demand Forecasting
Nature of Demand * Forecast Components
Approaches to Forecasting
Qualitative and Quantitative Forecasting Techniques &their Applicability
Time Series Analysis [with numerical examples]
* To be done from slides only
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Demand ForecastingDemand Forecasting
DefinitionDefinition
Demand forecasting ispredicting the futurepredicting the futuredemanddemandof the product or services of anorganization
AKA Demand Estimation
To forecast is to estimate or calculate inadvance
Corporate decisions often depend onmanagerial forecasts, yet there is never aguarantee of the reliability or accuracy of the
forecast
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44
... Demand Forecasting... Demand Forecasting
... Definition... Definition
If managers have a fair idea of the futuredemand of their product & services, they canimprove the quality of decision with regardsto production, procurement and promotion
Consequently managers can meet clientdemands more efficiently, minimize funds
tied up in inventories, save interest costs,avoid stock out situations and improve profits
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... Demand Forecasting... Demand Forecasting
... Definition... Definition
Forecasts
Drive logistics system planning &
coordination Help in prediction of quantity of products
that will be produced, shipped or sold
A typical logistics forecast is a prediction ofweekly / monthly shipments from adistribution center for an individual item
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66Determining the Scope of DemandDetermining the Scope of DemandForecastingForecasting
Before taking up an estimation or forecast, certain factors
have to be taken into consideration
Savage & Small have identified six factors involved indemand forecast which need to be taken care of whiledetermining the scope of the demand forecast
Period of forecastingPeriod of forecasting
Levels of forecastingLevels of forecasting
General Purpose or Specific Purpose ForecastsGeneral Purpose or Specific Purpose Forecasts
Forecasts of Established or New ProductsForecasts of Established or New Products
Type of commodity for which Forecast is to be doneType of commodity for which Forecast is to be done
Miscellaneous Factors to be Included or NotMiscellaneous Factors to be Included or Not
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77Determining the Scope of DemandDetermining the Scope of DemandForecastingForecasting Period of forecastingPeriod of forecasting
As a first step, the forecaster has to decide about the length of theperiod for the forecast
Time periods are usually divided into
The short-term
The medium-term The long-term
The short-termThe short-term
Is generally for periods upto 3 months
Forecaster looks for the factors which result in fluctuations indemand patterns in the market
Factors include weather conditions, tastes, fashions etc
The demand for machine time, equipment, raw materials, power,transport, finance, labour etc influence the decisions of the firm inshort-run forecasts
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88... Determining the Scope of Demand... Determining the Scope of DemandForecastingForecasting The medium-termThe medium-term
Generally covers a period between 3 months & 1 year Experience & sound judgment are more important than statistical
information
Main feature of is the direction of trenddirection of trendwhich has importantimplications for factors such as employees' recruitment, training etc
Can assist in decisions about timing of an activity such as advertising,expenditure etc
The long-termThe long-term
Refers to a period of generally 3 or 5 or 10 years
Provides information for strategic decisions
Concerned with extending or reducing the limits of resources
Takes into consideration influence on consumer's demand of factorslike socio-economic changes, fiscal & monetary policy
Validity of trend must be ascertained
Is the basis of decisions of the size of output, expansion of capacity,modernization etc
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99... Determining the Scope of Demand... Determining the Scope of DemandForecastingForecasting Levels of forecastingLevels of forecasting
Demand forecasting can be undertaken at any one of the followinglevels
Macro-economic ForecastingMacro-economic Forecasting
Concerned with business conditions over the entire economy
Business conditions measured with the help of appropriateindicators like those relating to national income, industrialproduction, wholesale prices etc.
Indicators are provided by government & private agencies &
can be treated as basic assumptions on which to base thedemand estimates
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1010... Determining the Scope of Demand... Determining the Scope of DemandForecastingForecasting
... Levels of Forecasting... Levels of Forecasting
Industry (market) Demand ForecastingIndustry (market) Demand Forecasting
Such forecasts can give indication to a firm regarding thedirection in which the whole industry will be moving
e.g. Ambuja Cement would like to know the way cement industry
is likely to behave, so as to plan their future Data relating to a trend in a particular industry is provided by
trade associations to their members
Helps firms' estimate their outputs, sale, capacity, expansion etc
Firm Demand ForecastingFirm Demand Forecasting
Several big firms would like to perform demand forecasting oftheir own products independent of the other players in theindustry
Such forecasts assess the position of the firm in relation to itscompetitors
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1111... Determining the Scope of Demand... Determining the Scope of DemandForecastingForecasting ... Levels of forecasting... Levels of forecasting
Product-line Demand ForecastingProduct-line Demand Forecasting
Helps firm to decide which of their products have priority inallocation of the firm's limited resources
e.g. Firms such as HUL & P&G which have a large number of
product lines, have to decide which product line gets priority International Level ForecastingInternational Level Forecasting
MNCs need to forecast for the different countries where they have apresence
General Purpose or Specific Purpose ForecastsGeneral Purpose or Specific Purpose Forecasts Though a general estimate is useful for a firm, it will be even more
useful to have a general estimate broken down into specificestimates with respect to areas of sale, domestic sale & exportmarkets
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1212... Determining the Scope of Demand... Determining the Scope of DemandForecastingForecasting
Forecasts of Established or New ProductsForecasts of Established or New Products
Methods of estimation differ for established or new products For established products, past sale trends & competitive conditions
are know whereas for new products no such data is available
Type of commodity for which Forecast is to be doneType of commodity for which Forecast is to be done
Economists broadly classify goods into capital goods, consumerdurables & non-durable goods
For each category, the demand pattern would be different
Hence for each category separate demand estimation is required
Miscellaneous Factors to be Included or NotMiscellaneous Factors to be Included or Not
The forecaster has to decide how much the sociological &psychological factors are to considered in the demand forecastingexercise
To be more effective, factors such as product features, product
markets, nature of competition, impact of uncertainty & risk, change ispopulation composition, income distribution etc need to be considered
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Purpose / Objectives of Demand ForecastingPurpose / Objectives of Demand Forecasting
Forecasting is to done for the short-term as well as long-term
Purpose for the two differs
Purpose for short-term forecasts
Short-term forecasts cover a period of 3 months, 6 months or 1year, chosen period depends on nature of business
Short-term forecasts are undertaken for the following purposes1. Appropriateproduction schedulingproduction scheduling so as to avoid the problem of
over-production & the problem of short supply
2. Helping the firm in reducing costs of purchasing raw materialsreducing costs of purchasing raw materials &controlling inventory by determining its future resource requirements
3. Determining appropriate price policyappropriate price policyto maintain consistent sales
4. Setting sales targets & establishing controls & incentivesSetting sales targets & establishing controls & incentives withchanging pattern of demand & extent of competition among firms
5. Evolving suitable advertising & promotion programmessuitable advertising & promotion programmes
6. Forecasting short term finance requirementsshort term finance requirements
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... Purpose / Objectives of Demand Forecasting... Purpose / Objectives of Demand Forecasting
Long-term forecasts cover a period of 3, 5 or 10 years depending upon thenature of the industry & nature of product
Concept of demand forecasting is more relevant to the long-term forecaststhan short-term forecasts, because it is easier to predict the immediate futurethan to predict the long-term future
The maybe far more fluctuations in the long-run future
Long-term forecasts are undertaken for the following purposes
1. Planning of a new unit or expansion of an existing unitPlanning of a new unit or expansion of an existing unit requires ananalysis of the long term demand potential, a multi-product firm mustascertain not only the total demand, but also the demand for different itemsseparately
2. Planning long-term financial requirementsPlanning long-term financial requirements as planning for a large
quantum of funds requires considerable advance notice, long-term salesforecasts are essential to assess long-term financial requirements
3. Planning man-power requirementsPlanning man-power requirements trained & skilled labour & businessexecutives may be required in the long-run due to expansion or setting-upof a new manufacturing plant
4. Planning a suitable strategyPlanning a suitable strategyto produce goods & services as perchanging needs of customer tastes & preferences
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Nature of DemandNature of Demand
Demand can be classified as
Dependent demand
Independent demand
Dependent DemandDependent Demand
Herein demand ofdependent item can bederived directly from the
forecast of the base item Can be further classified into
Vertical Dependent Demand
Horizontal Dependent Demand
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... Nature of Demand... Nature of Demand
VerticalVerticalDependent DemandDependent Demand
Is characterized by sequence of purchasing& manufacturing
e.g. component parts such as tyres that areassembled to form finished goods such asautomobiles
Hence requirement of tyres dependdependon the
automobile assembly schedule
May extend through several channels suchas raw material suppliers, component
suppliers etc
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... Nature of Demand... Nature of Demand
HorizontalHorizontalDependent DemandDependent Demand
Item demanded is not required to complete themanufacturing process but is required tocomplete the marketing / sales process
e.g. user's manual shipped along with theproduct
e.g. for a promotion that demands free tooth
brush with purchase of toothpaste Demand of the base item is determined using
forecasts, requirements of dependent componentscan calculated directly and no separate forecastingis done
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... Nature of Demand... Nature of Demand
Independent DemandIndependent Demand
Those demands that are not related to thedemand of another item
e.g. the demand for refrigerators is probablynot related to the demand of milk
Hence, independent demand items must be
forecasted individually
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Forecast ComponentsForecast Components
While the forecasted quantity is generally asingle figure, the value is made up of sixcomponents
Base demandBase demand Cyclic factorsCyclic factors
PromotionsPromotions
Irregular quantitiesIrregular quantities
TrendsTrends
Seasonal factorsSeasonal factors
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... Forecast Components... Forecast Components
Mathematically forecast can be expressed as
Ft = (Bt X St X T X Ct X Pt) + I
where Ft = forecast quantity for period t
Bt = base level demand for period t
St = seasonality factor for period t
T = trend component: increase or decrease
per time period
Ct = cyclic factor for period t
Pt = promotional factor for period t
I = irregular or random quantity
All forecasts may not include all the components
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... Forecast Components... Forecast Components
Base DemandBase Demand
The quantity left after the remainingcomponents have been removed
Is based on the average over an extendedperiod of time
Is the appropriate forecast for products thathave no seasonality, trend, cyclic orpromotional components
e.g. base demand would be an appropriateforecast for products such as bread, biscuits
and milk
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... Forecast Components... Forecast Components
Trend ComponentTrend Component
Exhibits long range general movement in periodic sales over anextended period of time
Can be positive or negative or neutral in direction
Positive trend implies increasing sales across time
Negative trend implies decreasing sales across time
Neutral sales trend implies sales of same quantities across time
Increases / decreases in trend are dependent on changes in
overall population or consumption pattern
Direction of trend may change several times over the entireproduct life cycle
e.g. a reduction in birth rate implies that a reduction in demand
for diapers will follow
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... Forecast Components... Forecast Components
Cyclic ComponentCyclic Component
AKA business cycles
Exhibit swings in demand pattern lasting more thana year
May be either upward or downward
e.g. business cycle in which economies traditionallyswing from boom / expansion to recession every 3to 5 years
The demand of housing and general spendinglevels of consumers are typically tied to these
business cycles
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... Forecast Components... Forecast Components
Promotional ComponentPromotional Component
Are demand swings initiated by a firm's promotionalactivities such as advertising, sales and schemes such asBOGOF
Sales increase as customers take advantage ofpromotional offers
These lead to liquidation of inventories
Promotions can be either offerings to consumers orofferings to wholesalers / retailers
Promotions, if offered regularly & at the same time everyyear will resemble a seasonal component
Timing & magnitude to a large extent is under firm's control
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... Forecast Components... Forecast Components
Irregular ComponentIrregular Component
Include random or unpredictable quantities thatdo not fit within the other categories
Because of its random nature, it is impossible topredict
Objective is to minimize the magnitude ofrandom component by tracking & predicting theother components
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Approaches to ForecastingApproaches to Forecasting
Approaches to sales forecasting usually involve
forecasting down from the top level of demand orforecasting up from the lower levels of demand
The two approaches to sales forecasting
Top-down Forecasting ApproachTop-down Forecasting Approach Bottom-up Forecasting ApproachBottom-up Forecasting Approach
Approaches can be used independently or in
combination The combination used must trade off the
complication of data collection & tracking of bottom-up approach with the data manipulation ease of top-down approach
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... Approaches to Forecasting... Approaches to Forecasting
Top-down Forecasting ApproachTop-down Forecasting Approach
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... Approaches to Forecasting... Approaches to Forecasting
... Top-down Forecasting Approach... Top-down Forecasting Approach
Is a centralized approach
Involves predicting total demand at the top or global level ofa product group or family
Entire demand is then broken down by product class intocentral distribution center to branch or regional distributioncenter down to individual stock keeping unit [SKU]
Approach should be used for short-term planning andshipping forecasts to distribution centers
When available, point-of-sale data can increase forecastaccuracy and improve performance of short-term issues,such as inventory and transportation
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... Approaches to Forecasting... Approaches to Forecasting
Bottom-up Forecasting ApproachBottom-up Forecasting Approach
Is a decentralized approach
Each distribution center demand forecast is developedindependently
Market is divided into segments, and then eachsegment demand is calculated
Typically, analysts use sales force data, industrysurveys, and intention-to-buy surveys to collect data
Data across segments are aggregated to arrive at atotal sales forecast
Approach may not be simple to use because ofcomplications with the accuracy of the data submitted
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3131Qualitative & Quantitative ForecastingQualitative & Quantitative ForecastingTechniques & Their ApplicabilityTechniques & Their Applicability
3232Qualitative & Quantitative ForecastingQualitative & Quantitative Forecasting
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3232... Qualitative & Quantitative Forecasting... Qualitative & Quantitative ForecastingTechniques & Their ApplicabilityTechniques & Their ApplicabilityForecasting techniques can be divided into two categories
Qualitative Forecasting TechniquesQualitative Forecasting Techniques
Quantitative Forecasting TechniquesQuantitative Forecasting Techniques
Qualitative Forecasting TechniquesQualitative Forecasting Techniques
No formal mathematical model used Based on expertise, subjective in nature
Ideal for situations where no historical data is available
Typically concern long-term forecasting
Are time-consuming
Include the following methods
The Delphi Technique
Sales Force Opinions
Jury of Executive Opinion
Market Research
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3333... Qualitative & Quantitative Forecasting... Qualitative & Quantitative ForecastingTechniques & Their ApplicabilityTechniques & Their Applicability
Qualitative Forecasting TechniquesQualitative Forecasting Techniques
The Delphi TechniqueThe Delphi Technique An attempt is made to develop forecasts through "group consensus"
Involves a panel of experts, physically separated from and unknownto each other
Each expert is asked to to respond to an initial series ofquestionnaires
Then, a second questionnaire is prepared incorporating informationand opinions of the whole group
Each expert is asked to reconsider and to revise his or her initial
response to the questions Process is continued until some degree of consensus among
experts is reached
The objective of the Delphi technique is not to produce a singleanswer at the end
Instead, it attempts to produce a relatively narrow spread of opinions
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3434... Qualitative & Quantitative Forecasting... Qualitative & Quantitative ForecastingTechniques & Their ApplicabilityTechniques & Their Applicability
... Qualitative Forecasting Techniques... Qualitative Forecasting Techniques
Sales Force OpinionsSales Force Opinions
The sales staff is often a good source of informationregarding future demand
The sales manager may ask for input from each sales-person and aggregate their responses into a sales forcecomposite forecast
Caution should be exercised when using this technique as
the members of the sales force may not be able todistinguish between what customers say and what theyactually do
Also, if the forecasts will be used to establish sales quotas,
the sales force may be tempted to provide lower estimates
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3535... Qualitative & Quantitative Forecasting... Qualitative & Quantitative ForecastingTechniques & Their ApplicabilityTechniques & Their Applicability
... Qualitative Forecasting Techniques... Qualitative Forecasting Techniques
Jury of Executive OpinionJury of Executive Opinion
AKA Executive Opinion
Sometimes upper-levels managers from different
functional areas such as marketing, finance, productionetc are brought together to develop forecasts based ontheir knowledge of their areas of responsibility
Particularly suitable for new products which do not have
any past history of sales There is a risk that the opinion of any one individual may
overshadow the opinion of other experts
The responsibility of forecast arrived is spread over the
entire group, rather than any individual
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3636... Qualitative & Quantitative Forecasting... Qualitative & Quantitative ForecastingTechniques & Their ApplicabilityTechniques & Their Applicability
... Qualitative Forecasting Techniques... Qualitative Forecasting Techniques
Market ResearchMarket Research
Consumer surveys are used to establish potentialdemand
Usually involves constructing a questionnaire that solicitspersonal, demographic, economic, and marketinginformation
Market researchers generally collect such information in
person at retail outlets and malls, where the consumercan experience, taste, feel, smell, and see a particularproduct
The researcher must be careful that the sample of peoplesurveyed is representative of the desired consumer target
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3737... Qualitative & Quantitative Forecasting... Qualitative & Quantitative ForecastingTechniques & Their ApplicabilityTechniques & Their Applicability
Quantitative Forecasting TechniquesQuantitative Forecasting Techniques
Are based on an analysis of historical data
Objective in nature
Include the following methods
Casual Methods
Time Series Forecasting Methods
Moving Averages
Exponential Smoothing
Time Series Decomposition
Trend projection
Nave Approach
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3838... Qualitative & Quantitative Forecasting... Qualitative & Quantitative ForecastingTechniques & Their ApplicabilityTechniques & Their Applicability
... Quantitative Forecasting Techniques... Quantitative Forecasting Techniques
Casual MethodsCasual Methods
Use mathematical techniques such as regression
Relates a dependent variable to an independentvariable in the form of a linear equation
Also uses econometric models, input-output models,life-cycle analysis, computer simulation models &
neural networks Most of these approaches are difficult to implement
In practice, only single or multiple regression is used
for logistics planning
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3939... Qualitative & Quantitative Forecasting... Qualitative & Quantitative ForecastingTechniques & Their ApplicabilityTechniques & Their Applicability
... Quantitative Forecasting Techniques... Quantitative Forecasting Techniques
Time Series Forecasting MethodsTime Series Forecasting Methods
A time series is a set of evenly spaced numerical data
Is obtained by observing responses at regular time
periods
The forecast is based only on past values
Assumes that factors that influence the past sales of a
firm's product, will continue in the present and thefuture sales
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4040... Qualitative & Quantitative Forecasting... Qualitative & Quantitative ForecastingTechniques & Their ApplicabilityTechniques & Their Applicability
... Quantitative Forecasting Techniques... Quantitative Forecasting Techniques
... Time Series Forecasting Methods... Time Series Forecasting Methods
Moving AveragesMoving Averages
Is a series of arithmetic means
Is used if little or no trend is present in the data
Provides an overall impression of data over time
Moving Average = Demand in previous n periods
n
where n is the number of periods in the movingaverage
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4141... Qualitative & Quantitative Forecasting... Qualitative & Quantitative ForecastingTechniques & Their ApplicabilityTechniques & Their Applicability
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... Qualitative & Quantitative Forecasting... Qualitative & Quantitative ForecastingTechniques & Their ApplicabilityTechniques & Their Applicability
... Quantitative Forecasting Techniques... Quantitative Forecasting Techniques
... Time Series Forecasting Methods... Time Series Forecasting Methods
Weighted Moving AveragesWeighted Moving Averages
Adjusts the moving average method to reflect
fluctuations more closely by assigning weights to themost recent data, meaning, that the older data isusually less important
The weights are based on intuition
Weighted Moving Average ={(weight for period n) X (Demand in period n)}
n
where n is the number of periods in the moving
average
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... Qualitative & Quantitative Forecasting... Qualitative & Quantitative ForecastingTechniques & Their ApplicabilityTechniques & Their Applicability
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... Qualitative & Quantitative Forecasting... Qualitative & Quantitative ForecastingTechniques & Their ApplicabilityTechniques & Their Applicability
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Time Series Forecasting MethodsTime Series Forecasting Methods
Exponential SmoothingExponential Smoothing
Is an averaging method that reacts more strongly to
recent changes in demand by assigning a smoothingconstant to the most recent data
A new forecast is based on forecast of previous period
& the following relation exists between them New Forecast = Last period's forecast + (Last
period's actual demand - Last period's forecast)
where denotes a weight or smoothing constant
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... Qualitative & Quantitative Forecasting... Qualitative & Quantitative ForecastingTechniques & Their ApplicabilityTechniques & Their Applicability
... Quantitative Forecasting Techniques... Quantitative Forecasting Techniques
...Time Series Forecasting Methods...Time Series Forecasting Methods
... Exponential Smoothing... Exponential Smoothing
Mathematically
Ft = Ft-1 + ( At-1 - Ft-1 )
where Ft = New Forecast
Ft-1
= Previous Forecast
= Smoothing constant ( 0 < < 1)At-1 = Previous period's actual demand
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... Qualitative & Quantitative ForecastingQ Q gTechniques & Their ApplicabilityTechniques & Their Applicability
5353... Qualitative & Quantitative Forecasting... Qualitative & Quantitative Forecasting
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... Qualitative & Quantitative ForecastingQ Q gTechniques & Their ApplicabilityTechniques & Their Applicability
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Q Q gQ Q gTechniques & Their ApplicabilityTechniques & Their Applicability
... Quantitative Forecasting Techniques... Quantitative Forecasting Techniques
... Time Series Forecasting Methods... Time Series Forecasting Methods
Time Series DecompositionTime Series Decomposition
AKA Seasonal variations
Involves the measurement of seasonal variation
Adjusts the seasonality by multiplying the normalforecast by a seasonal factor
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Q Q gQ Q gTechniques & Their ApplicabilityTechniques & Their Applicability
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Q Q gQ Q gTechniques & Their ApplicabilityTechniques & Their Applicability
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Q Q gQ Q gTechniques & Their ApplicabilityTechniques & Their Applicability... Quantitative Forecasting Techniques... Quantitative Forecasting Techniques
... Time Series Forecasting Methods... Time Series Forecasting MethodsTrend ProjectionTrend Projection
The time series data of the item under forecast are used to fit a trendline or curve either graphically or through statistical method of LeastSquares
The trend line is worked out by fitting a trend equation to time seriesdata with the aid of an estimation method
The trend equation could take either a linear or a non-linear form
Method often yields a dependable forecast
Advantage is that it does not require the formal knowledge ofeconomic theory & markets, it only needs the time series data
Limitation is that it assumes that the past is repeated in future
An appropriate method for long-run forecasts, but inappropriate for
short-run forecasts
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Q Q gQ Q gTechniques & Their ApplicabilityTechniques & Their Applicability
... Quantitative Forecasting Techniques... Quantitative Forecasting Techniques
... Time Series Forecasting Methods... Time Series Forecasting Methods
Nave ApproachNave Approach
Among the time-series models, the nave approach is the
simplest method Simply uses the actual demand for the past period as the
forecasted demand for the next period
Assumes that demand in the next period is the same as
demand in most recent period Also assumes that any trends, seasonality, or cycles are either
reflected in the previous period's demand or do not exist
e.g. If July sales were 50 units, then Augusts sales will also be
50 units
5959
ReferencesReferences
7/31/2019 2011 Lscm Lesson6 Demand Forecasting
59/59
ReferencesReferences Determining the Scope of Demand Forecasting
http://books.google.com/books?
id=dX987hKb7hYC&pg=PA56&dq=scope+of+demand+forecasting&hl=en&ei=0UcTTsimLcaurAfWhoiIBA&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=8&ved=0CEwQ6AEwBw#v=onepage&q=scope%20of%20demand%20forecasting&f=false
Purpose / Objective of Demand Forecasting
http://books.google.com/books?id=dX987hKb7hYC&pg=PA56&dq=scope+of+demand+forecasting&hl=en&ei=0UcTTsimLca
urAfWhoiIBA&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=8&ved=0CEwQ6AEwBw#v=onepage&q&f=false
Approaches to Demand Forecasting
http://smallbusiness.chron.com/various-sales-forecasting-techniques-4695.html
http://www.newswise.com/articles/view/574260/?sc=c14
http://www.answers.com/topic/sales-forecast
Forecasting Techniques
http://www.referenceforbusiness.com/management/Ex-Gov/Forecasting.html
http://people.brunel.ac.uk/~mastjjb/jeb/or/forecast.html
http://www.referenceforbusiness.com/encyclopedia/Fa-For/Forecasting.html
http://www.uoguelph.ca/~dsparlin/forecast.htm#MULTIPLICATIVE%20SEASONAL
http://smallbusiness.chron.com/various-sales-forecasting-techniques-4695.htmlhttp://www.newswise.com/articles/view/574260/?sc=c14http://www.answers.com/topic/sales-forecasthttp://www.referenceforbusiness.com/encyclopedia/Fa-For/Forecasting.htmlhttp://www.referenceforbusiness.com/encyclopedia/Fa-For/Forecasting.htmlhttp://www.answers.com/topic/sales-forecasthttp://www.newswise.com/articles/view/574260/?sc=c14http://smallbusiness.chron.com/various-sales-forecasting-techniques-4695.html