4
Please refer to the important disclosures at the back of this document. 3QFY11 results in line with expectations. Singapore Post (SingPost) reported a 6.3% YoY rise in revenue to S$148.5m and a 0.7% drop in net profit to S$43.8m in 3QFY11, such that 9MFY11 net profit accounted for 74.7% of our full year estimates and 78.5% of Bloomberg's mean consensus. Excluding one-off items such as amortization of deferred gain on intellectual property rights and benefits from the Jobs Credit Scheme (in 3QFY10), underlying net profit increased 5.1% YoY to S$40.9m. Growth in mail and logistics businesses. Mail revenue grew 7.5% YoY on the back of strong growth in the direct mail business and better economic conditions, while international mail was underpinned by growth in e-commerce activities. More transshipment and vPOST shipping activities contributed to the 10.2% YoY increase in logistics revenue, but operating profit from this division declined as transshipment generally has lower margins. Diversifying its businesses and markets. Management reiterated that it continues to face "formidable challenges" in the postal industry, driven by factors such as e-substitution. With the global trend of declining mail volumes, the group wants to reduce its reliance on mail revenue and diversify its revenue base. Indeed, the mail division's contribution to total revenue has fallen steadily from 77% in FY08 to 68% in 9MFY11. However, being Singapore's dominant postal operator, SingPost will still focus on the mail business to meet the changing and growing needs of its customers, while expanding its logistics and retail divisions. The group is also exploring acquisition opportunities to grow its businesses in the region. Maintain HOLD. To accelerate the group's transformation and growth, SingPost has announced an organizational restructuring in which there will be a CEO in charge of Postal and Corporate Services while another CEO will focus on the international business. We are positive on this latest development as the segregation of duties should result in a sharper focus on both the mail business (faces own challenges in the industry) and the group's international expansion efforts (essential to seek new growth drivers). Meanwhile, we continue to await news on the M&A front. An interim dividend of S$0.0125/share has been declared, in line with the group's usual practice. Though the stock has an estimated dividend yield of 5.3%, there is limited upside potential to our DCF- based fair value estimate of S$1.16. Hence we maintain our HOLD rating. Singapore Post Ltd 31 January 2011 Maintain HOLD Previous Rating: HOLD Current Price: S$1.17 Fair Value : S$1.16 SINGAPORE Company Update Results MITA No. 010/06/2010 Reuters Code SPOS.SI ISIN Code S08 Bloomberg Code SPOST SP Issued Capital (m) 1,930 Mkt Cap (S$m/US$m) 2,258 / 1,756 Major Shareholders Sing Tel 25.6% Free Float (%) 73.8% Daily Vol 3-mth (‘000) 3,288 52 Wk Range 1.010 - 1.250 Low Pei Han (65) 6531 9813 e-mail: [email protected] Steady 3QFY11 results 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 Spore Post STI (S$ m) FY09 FY10 FY11F FY12F Revenue 481.1 525.5 561.1 578.4 EBITDA 205.0 213.0 225.5 228.5 P/NTA (x) 9.0 11.1 9.1 7.7 EPS (cts) 7.7 8.6 8.6 8.9 PER (x) 15.1 13.7 13.6 13.1

2011 Jan 31 - OCBC -Singapore Post

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Page 1: 2011 Jan 31 - OCBC -Singapore Post

Please refer to the important disclosures at the back of this document.

3QFY11 results in line with expectations. Singapore Post(SingPost) reported a 6.3% YoY rise in revenue to S$148.5mand a 0.7% drop in net profit to S$43.8m in 3QFY11, suchthat 9MFY11 net profit accounted for 74.7% of our full yearestimates and 78.5% of Bloomberg's mean consensus.Excluding one-off items such as amortization of deferred gainon intellectual property rights and benefits from the Jobs CreditScheme (in 3QFY10), underlying net profit increased 5.1%YoY to S$40.9m.

Growth in mail and logistics businesses. Mail revenue grew7.5% YoY on the back of strong growth in the direct mailbusiness and better economic conditions, while internationalmail was underpinned by growth in e-commerce activities. Moretransshipment and vPOST shipping activities contributed tothe 10.2% YoY increase in logistics revenue, but operatingprofit from this division declined as transshipment generallyhas lower margins.

Diversifying its businesses and markets. Managementreiterated that it continues to face "formidable challenges" inthe postal industry, driven by factors such as e-substitution.With the global trend of declining mail volumes, the groupwants to reduce its reliance on mail revenue and diversify itsrevenue base. Indeed, the mail division's contribution to totalrevenue has fallen steadily from 77% in FY08 to 68% in9MFY11. However, being Singapore's dominant postal operator,SingPost will still focus on the mail business to meet thechanging and growing needs of its customers, while expandingits logistics and retail divisions. The group is also exploringacquisition opportunities to grow its businesses in the region.

Maintain HOLD. To accelerate the group's transformation andgrowth, SingPost has announced an organizationalrestructuring in which there will be a CEO in charge of Postaland Corporate Services while another CEO will focus on theinternational business. We are positive on this latestdevelopment as the segregation of duties should result in asharper focus on both the mail business (faces own challengesin the industry) and the group's international expansion efforts(essential to seek new growth drivers). Meanwhile, we continueto await news on the M&A front. An interim dividend ofS$0.0125/share has been declared, in line with the group'susual practice. Though the stock has an estimated dividendyield of 5.3%, there is limited upside potential to our DCF-based fair value estimate of S$1.16. Hence we maintain ourHOLD rating.

Singapore Post Ltd

SINGAPORE Company Update Results MITA No. 010/06/2009

31 January 2011

Maintain

HOLDPrevious Rating: HOLD

Current Price: S$1.17Fair Value : S$1.16

SINGAPORE Company Update Results MITA No. 010/06/2010

Reuters Code SPOS.SI

ISIN Code S08

Bloomberg Code SPOST SP

Issued Capital (m) 1,930

Mkt Cap (S$m/US$m) 2,258 / 1,756

Major Shareholders

Sing Tel 25.6%

Free Float (%) 73.8%

Daily Vol 3-mth (‘000) 3,288

52 Wk Range 1.010 - 1.250

Low Pei Han(65) 6531 9813e-mail: [email protected]

Steady 3QFY11 results

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

Jan-0

8

May-

08

Sep-0

8

Jan-0

9

May-

09

Sep-0

9

Jan-1

0

May-

10

Sep-1

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4Spore Post

STI

(S$ m) FY09 FY10 FY11F FY12F

Revenue 481.1 525.5 561.1 578.4

EBITDA 205.0 213.0 225.5 228.5

P/NTA (x) 9.0 11.1 9.1 7.7

EPS (cts) 7.7 8.6 8.6 8.9

PER (x) 15.1 13.7 13.6 13.1

Page 2: 2011 Jan 31 - OCBC -Singapore Post

Page 2 31 January 2011

Singapore Post Ltd

SingPost's Key Financial Data

SingPost Results 3Q11 3Q10 % Chg 2Q11 % ChgYear Ended 31 Mar (S$ m) (S$m) (S$m) (YoY) (S$m) (QoQ)

Revenue 148.5 139.6 6.3% 137.6 7.9%

EBITDA 48.7 48.3 0.7% 44.3 9.8%

Depreciation & amortisation -7.2 -7.0 3.1% -7.3 -0.8%

Net interest expense -2.7 -1.8 47.7% -3.0 -11.9%

Associates -0.2 -0.3 -49.1% -0.1 47.8%

Others 15.5 13.8 12.8% 14.6 6.0%

Pre-tax profit 53.3 52.9 0.7% 48.0 11.1%

Tax -9.4 -8.6 9.5% -8.3 12.8%

Minority interests -0.1 -0.2 -52.6% -0.2 -42.7%

Net profit att to shareholders 43.8 44.1 -0.7% 39.5 11.0%

SingPost's Key Financial Data

EARNINGS FORECAST BALANCE SHEET

Year Ended 31 Mar (S$m) FY09 FY10 FY11F FY12F As at 31 Mar (S$m) FY09 FY10 FY11F FY12F

Revenue 481.1 525.5 561.1 578.4 Cash and cash equivalents 139.5 390.2 409.8 464.4

Operating expenses -309.5 -352.9 -377.1 -393.3 Other current assets 75.7 94.9 101.7 104.8

EBITDA 205.0 213.0 225.5 228.5 Property, plant, and equipment 457.3 450.3 443.9 434.4

EBIT 178.6 183.2 199.2 202.9 Total assets 770.2 1,074.9 1,104.9 1,144.1

Net interest expense -7.2 -7.5 -11.8 -11.4 Debt 303.0 503.0 503.0 503.0

Associates 7.8 1.0 0.2 1.0 Current liabilities excluding debt 194.4 241.2 230.6 236.7

Pre-tax profit 179.1 194.8 195.7 200.6 Total liabilities 514.0 776.4 760.4 762.1

Tax -29.6 -29.0 -29.2 -28.1 Shareholders equity 251.4 292.9 338.4 375.4

Minority interests -0.7 -0.8 -0.5 -0.5 Total equity 256.2 298.5 344.5 382.0Net profit att to shareholders 148.8 165.0 166.0 172.0 Total equity and liabilities 770.2 1,074.9 1,104.9 1,144.1

CASH FLOW

Year Ended 31 Mar (S$m) FY09 FY10 FY11F FY12F KEY RATES & RATIOS FY09 FY10 FY11F FY12F

Op profit before working cap. chang 205.5 223.0 224.3 237.3 EPS (S cents) 7.7 8.6 8.6 8.9

Working cap, taxes and int -35.2 -14.5 -38.5 -22.7 NTA per share (cents) 13.0 10.6 12.9 15.2

Net cash from operations 170.3 208.5 185.8 214.6 EBITDA margin (%) 42.6 40.5 40.2 39.5

Purchase of PP&E -14.5 -12.4 -15.0 -14.6 Net profit margin (%) 30.9 31.4 29.6 29.7

Other investing flows 6.6 -17.2 -16.0 4.2 PER (x) 15.1 13.7 13.6 13.1

Investing cash flow -7.8 -29.6 -31.0 -10.3 Price/NTA (x) 9.0 11.1 9.1 7.7

Financing cash flow -127.1 71.8 -135.2 -149.7 EV/EBITDA (x) 11.8 11.1 10.4 10.0

Net cash flow 35.4 250.7 19.6 54.6 Dividend yield (%) 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3

Cash at beginning of year 104.1 139.5 390.2 409.8 ROE (%) 59.2 56.3 49.1 45.8

Cash at end of year (incl ODs) 139.5 390.2 409.8 464.4 Net gearing (%) 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1

Source: Company data, OIR estimates

Page 3: 2011 Jan 31 - OCBC -Singapore Post

Page 3 31 January 2011

Singapore Post Ltd

For OCBC Investment Research Pte Ltd

Carmen LeeHead of ResearchPublished by OCBC Investment Research Pte Ltd

SHAREHOLDING DECLARATION:The analyst’s immediate family owns shares in the above security.

RATINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS:OCBC Investment Research’s (OIR) technical comments and recommendations are short-term and tradingoriented.- However, OIR’s fundamental views and ratings (Buy, Hold, Sell) are medium-term calls within a 12-monthinvestment horizon. OIR’s Buy = More than 10% upside from the current price; Hold = Trade within +/-10%from the current price; Sell = More than 10% downside from the current price.- For companies with less than S$150m market capitalization, OIR’s Buy = More than 30% upside from thecurrent price; Hold = Trade within +/- 30% from the current price; Sell = More than 30% downside from thecurrent price.

DISCLAIMER FOR RESEARCH REPORTThis report is solely for information and general circulation only and may not be published, circulated,reproduced or distributed in whole or in part to any other person without our written consent. This reportshould not be construed as an offer or solicitation for the subscription, purchase or sale of the securitiesmentioned herein. Whilst we have taken all reasonable care to ensure that the information contained in thispublication is not untrue or misleading at the time of publication, we cannot guarantee its accuracy orcompleteness, and you should not act on it without first independently verifying its contents. Any opinion orestimate contained in this report is subject to change without notice. We have not given any considerationto and we have not made any investigation of the investment objectives, financial situation or particularneeds of the recipient or any class of persons, and accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and noliability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of the recipientor any class of persons acting on such information or opinion or estimate. You may wish to seek advicefrom a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the securities mentioned herein, taking into considerationyour investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs, before making a commitment to invest inthe securities. OCBC Investment Research Pte Ltd, OCBC Securities Pte Ltd and their respective connectedand associated corporations together with their respective directors and officers may have or take positionsin the securities mentioned in this report and may also perform or seek to perform broking and otherinvestment or securities related services for the corporations whose securities are mentioned in this reportas well as other parties generally.

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Page 4: 2011 Jan 31 - OCBC -Singapore Post