2010 Youth Vote Strategy Memo

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Strategy MemoThe Voice of Young Conservatives

To: College Republican Activists

From: Zach Howell--Chairman

Subject: College Republicans Significantly Bolster Youth Support in Key States

The 2010 elections brought about a huge turnaround in the youth vote- especially inthe battleground states and races that the CRNC focused on. Its important that wequantify to you, our members, what impact the College Republican NationalCommittee had on the races we targeted. Below is a composite look at the 2008 and2010 elections, with an explanation of our efforts to bring young people back into theRepublican fold.

Florida

Candidates that benefitted: Rick Scott, Marco Rubio, Cliff Stearns, John Mica

CRNC Action: Five Field Representatives, Youth oriented TV advertising

Rubio ran the best youth campaign outreach in the Florida. He won 36% of the 18-29demographic, and Crist won 33%. This means that nearly 70% of 18-29 year olds inFLA voted for a center-right candidate. McCain only won 37% of that demographic,which shows a nearly 33% bump in active young Republicans. A huge swing.

Ohio

Candidates that benefitted from our ads: Kasich, Portman, Steve Stivers, Pat Tiberi,Steve Austria. All bordering districts stayed red, or flipped (as Kilroy was defeated.)

CRNC Action: Eight Field Representatives, Youth oriented TV advertising

Portman ran an intense youth outreach program. Exit polls for 18-29 year oldsshowed that Portman gained 45%, with 6% undecided. McCain polled 35% amongst18-29 year olds in Ohio in 2008. A distinct gain amongst our targeted demographic.

Pennsylvania

Candidates that benefitted: Tom Corbett, Pat Toomey, Glenn Thompson, Bill Shuster,Michael Fitzpatrick, Pat Meehan, Mike Kelly, Lou Barletta, and Tom Marino (All were

victorious)

CRNC Action: Five Field Representatives, Youth oriented TV advertising

Corbett ran the best youth outreach program in the state. He received 45% of the 18-29 year old vote compared to McCain's 35% amongst that age group.


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Wisconsin

Candidates Impacted: Scott Walker, Ron Johnson

CRNC Action: Youth oriented TV advertising

Wisconsin was different in our approach. Madison is Leftyville, USA. We knew thatmaking in roads there would be tough in the city proper, but the positioning of themedia market allowed us to receive earned media on the ad both nationally andlocally. It was also symbolic because it was where Obama kicked off his Fall 2010collegiate tour. The thought was although students there listened to him for an hour,they would be forced to hear our ad 1,000 times before the election during theirpreferential TV programming.

Johnson and Walker both pulled 46% of the statewide 18-29 year old vote.Comparably McCain only received 35% in 2008.

More telling about Wisconsin is counties that were blue in 2008, and flipped to red in2010. Counties that the ad played in that followed the aforementioned description:Grant, Lafayette, Richland, Sauk, Junuau, Adams, Marquette, Columbia, Jefferson,Walworth, and Vernon.

Bottom Line

While it is absolutely unfair to say the College Republican National Committee effortsmade the difference, it is fair to say that CRs played a crucial role in RepublicanVictories in our target states. For our 5 state, self financed program, the facts aresimple:

2.1 Million Voter Contacts80,000k Volunteer HoursAds viewed through earned media alone: 3.5 million (A host of Fox News Shows, CNNSunday Morning, CSPAN Washington Journal, etc.)707 Campus Recruitment Events361 Campaign Rallies1708 Phone Banks

The Republican Presidential nominee in 2012 will have to work hard to swing youngvoters to their side. With the help of the CRNC, we are confident they can do so. Asthe data below shows, a replication of our 2010 results in 2012 would make a hugedifference for our Presidential campaign.

2008 vs. Potential 2012 Aggregate Numbers of Interest:

Numbers of 18-29 year olds who voted in 2008: 23 million

Obama's Total Vote Count: 66.8 MillionMcCain's Total Vote Count: 58.3 MillionDifference in Popular Vote Count: 8.5 Million

Total Number of 18-29 Year Old Votes

Obama: 15.18 million (66% of 23 million)McCain: 7.36 million (32% of 23 million)Difference in Popular Youth Vote: 7.82 million


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Youth Vote as % of Each Candidate's Total Popular Vote

Obama: 23% (15.18m/66.8m)McCain: 12% (7.36m/58.3m)% Differential: 11%

But what if 45% of 18-29 year olds had voted Republican, and if our model had beenemployed, what would 2008 have looked like?

Republican Bump: +14% (Assuming that the previous 2% undecided in 2008 wereLibertarian and vote against Obama)Democratic Loss: -11%

What that means in terms of re-calculating percentage of the 23 million Youth Voters

Democrats: 12.65 MillionRepublicans: 10.35 millionSwing: 5.52 Million Votes!!!

When the difference in popular vote was 8 million , a concerted youth effort is a wayto shift 5.5 million of that total in favor of Republicans.

The Republican Party didnt do enough to bring in young people in 2008, and theDemocrats seized on that messaging void.

Seeing that our CRNC deployment states were all key battleground states, we havebuilt a foundation for 2012. We have learned from successes and from shortcomings.Given the grounds we've gained in the states, there is hope for the Party if ournominee focuses on youth issues (debt, deficits, and the fact that we bear the burdenof decades worth of shortsighted entitlement policies) and if the CRNC works harderthan we ever have before.

2012 brings a significant opportunity to turn back a generational trend to the left,and the CRNC will be working tirelessly to accomplish that.

Documents

2010 Youth Vote Strategy Memo