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2010 Vision ConferenceOctober 20-21, 2010
The Waterford Conference CenterSpringfield, Virginia
2010 Vision Conference
Highlights of this year’s Vision Conference at a glance:
• Long-term forecast of the Federal IT (5-year) and U.S. Defense (10-year) markets• Qualitative and quantitative analysis from 200+ industry member volunteers who participate in the forecasting process• Additional insights provided by hundreds of government executives who take part in non-attribution roundtable
discussions
Please plan on attending this year’s Vision Conference to obtain the findings of this valuable forecasting process and to network with your industry peers.
The 46th annual TechAmerica Foundation
Vision Conference promises to deliver a
rich, comprehensive and widely referenced
analysis of federal spending and business
opportunities for the future.
“ Insights, intelligence, and actionable data for future business opportunities are the driving forces that bring Business Developers and Strategists to the Vision Conference. Year after year, this conference never fails to deliver on accurate predictions and forecasts that give attendees the edge on qualifying, pursuing and winning business!”-Ann Gladys, Director, CSC, North American Public Sector
For more information or to register visit www.techamericafoundation.org
About TechAmerica and the TechAmerica FoundationThe TechAmerica Foundation is a 501c(3) non-profit, non-partisan affiliate of TechAmerica. The Foundation was originally established in
1981 under the auspices of AeA and subsequently renamed after the merger that created TechAmerica. The charter of the TechAmerica
Foundation is to create and disseminate industry, policy and market research studies, covering topics such as U.S. competitiveness in a
global economy, innovation in government and other areas of national interest. The Foundation also organizes conferences and seminars
to explore pertinent issues with government and industry representatives and to share the Foundation’s findings. The Vision Conference is
the major undertaking to achieve this goal.
TechAmerica is the leading voice for the U.S. Technology industry, which is the driving force behind productivity growth and jobs creation
in the United States and the foundation of the global innovation economy. Representing approximately 1,500 member companies of all
sizes from the public and commercial sectors of the economy, it is the industry’s largest advocacy organization and is dedicated to helping
members’ top and bottom lines. TechAmerica was formed by the mergers of the Information Technology Association of America (ITAA),
AeA, the Government Electronics & Information Technology Association (GEIA) and the Cyber Security Industry Alliance (CSIA).
Membership in TechAmerica offers access to:
• High Quality Information on trends and opportunities for doing business with the Federal Government, including a host of key
government relations programs.
• Active Leadership that is recognized nationally and internationally for its expertise in navigating the Federal Marketplace.
• An Open Channel for government to communicate messages to industry and exchange ideas.
2010 Industry Study Teams (DoD)
The following teams are developing the 2010 Vision Forecast:
Defense:• Macroeconomic/DoD Top-Line Budget• Cyber Security Special Study• C4ISR/DoD IT• Services & Support• Science & Technology • Aircraft• Missile Defense/Precision Munitions• Ships• Vehicles• NASA• Space• Industry Outlook
“ The Vision Conference process provides a comprehensive analysis of government budget forecasts and a comprehensive understanding of the U.S. government’s plans. Individual and team participation is especially important for Industry members to experience firsthand how and why Government allocates their resources. This process and the knowledge gained aids companies in their long term planning as the Administration’s policies unfold in 2010 and beyond.”– Gerry Robbins, Executive Director, Business Development, Defense Systems Division, Northrop Grumman Corporation
2010 Industry Study Teams (Federal IT)
The following teams are developing the 2010 Vision Forecast:
Federal IT:• Federal IT Budget/DoD IT Budget• Game Changers (drivers in the Federal IT
market)• Cross-Cutting Contracts (MACs, GWACs,
Schedules, BPAs)• General Services Administration• Department of Homeland Security• Department of Health and Human Services• Department of Veterans Affairs• Military Health System• Department of the Treasury • Department of Justice• Department of Transportation
• Department of Energy• Department of State• Department of Commerce• Department of Agriculture
“The Vision process includes training in interviewing, analysis, and presentation skills, as well as substantial feedback and brainstorming sessions with industry colleagues. It’s a great way to enhance your own company’s professional development, and to network at the same time.”– Bobbi Terkowitz, Client Manager, IBM
DoD Forecast
The TechAmerica Foundation Vision Conference will showcase the most comprehensive analysis of the future direction of Defense and Federal IT budgets available. The DoD Topline forecast chart at right is backed up by HUNDREDS of relevant forecasting charts contained within various presentations. You will note that the 2009 forecast chart predicted that the Overseas Contingency Operations (OCO) will result in Supplementals to fund those operations throughout the 2010-2020 forecast period. By 2020 we expect to be at a Topline level somewhere between the level we were at in 2002 and 2003. (Note forecast on this chart is in constant dollars, i.e. inflation is removed; the dotted blue line indicates the current dollar forecast, i.e. includes inflation)
2009 DoD Topline Forecastin Constant FY10 Dollars
$700
800 Topline = Base Budget + OCO funding$664
FY10
$609
500
600
B
$470MILCON & Other
OCOOCO
26.1
130.0
300
400
500
FY10
$B
O&M185.7
197.5
21.3 11.5
100
200
300
RDT&E
MILPERS136.0
78.6129.5
0
100
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Procurement107.4 66.243.8
TechAmerica Vision Conference TechAmerica Vision Conference
Note: Excludes FY09 Stimulus funding ($7.4 billion)
Decline in OCO funding & deficit pressures will drive topline downDecline in OCO funding & deficit pressures will drive topline down
DoD Forecast
The chart to the right delineates events that could potentially change the DoD forecast in an upward or downward direction. The perceived threat environment is the most likely driver of future DoD toplines.
“Participation in the TechAmerica Foundation forecast development process enhances my interactions with Government officials, think tanks, Wall Street analysts, and other industry professionals -- all of which enables me to provide added value to my company’s strategic planning and business development processes.”– Cecil Black, Director of Market Assessment & Budget Analysis, Boeing Government Operations
Potential Changes to 2009 DoD Forecast
Adverse changes in political strategic landscape
B fi i l h i liti lNew 9/11 or devastating cyber attackIraq withdrawal delayedProlonged surge in Afghanistan
Deficit situation improves –
Beneficial changes in political strategic landscape
Threats diminishIraq withdrawal goes smoothly
Economy rebounds better than anticipatedEntitlement reform cuts mandatory costs
Afghanistan ends sooner thanexpectedMilitary end strength reductions
“Double dip” recessionGuns trump butter as policy priority
Administration & Congress determine that DoD modernization is a national priority
Produces larger deficits that drive further spending cuts
Butter trumps guns as policy priorityHealth care for uninsured & other p y
Reset after Iraq/Afghanistan is more costly than anticipated Further ground forces increase
domestic programs growLong-term: “Big 3” mandatory programs grow unchecked
TechAmerica Vision Conference TechAmerica Vision Conference
Perceived threat environment is most likely driver of future DoD toplinesPerceived threat environment is most likely driver of future DoD toplines
Federal IT Forecast
Our forecasts are recognized as the industry standard for predicting federal budget trends. There are 25+ study teams from which to choose. We provide in-depth agency forecasts. All agency presentations contain a chart detailing future budget trends (Note forecast on this chart is in current dollars, i.e. includes inflation)
2009 Federal IT Forecast2009 Federal IT Forecast
$100 DOC$90 7B
TOTAL CAGR FY10-FY15 = 3.1%
$70$80$90 USDA
VANASA$61.4B
$77.8B$90.7B
$B
$50$60$70 DOT
DOETreas
Cur
rent
$$20$30$40 DOJ
HHSDHS
C
$0$10
5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5
Other CivDefAgNavy
TechAmerica Vision Conference TechAmerica Vision Conference
FY05FY06
FY07FY08
FY09FY10
FY11FY12
FY13FY14
FY15 ArmyAF
Federal IT Forecast
After examining the inhibitors and drivers, we concluded that despite the downward pressures, IT needs across government will result in conservative IT budget growth in 2010-2015. Growth is driven primarily by increasing demand for better and more efficient government services and the need for long-term IT investments in order to contain the costs of delivering those services.
Federal IT Budget 2009 Forecast AssumptionsFY2010 2015
IT Budget Inhibitors
Improve fiscal
FY2010-2015 CAGR = 3.1%
Realize long-term discipline
Achieve economies in government
Increasing demand for more efficient government services
ROI from investments
IT Budget Driversgovernment contracting; reform acquisition practices
Improve services to citizens
Increase scope & Need for long-term IT investments in order to
IT Budget Drivers
scale of government services
Address pent-up demand in “wants”
contain the per capita costs of delivering those services
Meet up- de a d a tsand “needs” front costs of
investmentsMake operation-
critical investments
TechAmerica Vision Conference TechAmerica Vision Conference
critical investments
Despite downward pressure, we foresee IT needs driving slower growthDespite downward pressure, we foresee IT needs driving slower growth
Member Companies that participated on our 2009 Vision Study
Accenture
ACS
American Systems
AT&T
BAE Systems, Inc.
The Boeing Company
Booz Allen Hamilton
Buzzient, Inc.
CA, Inc.
CACI
Capgemini Government Solutions, LLC
Creative Computing Solutions, Inc.
CGI Federal
Citrix Government Systems
Compusearch Software Systems
Convergys Government Solutions, Inc.
Crane Aerospace & Electronics
CSC
Curtiss-Wright Corporation
Dell Perot Systems
Deloitte
Digital Management, Inc.
Dynamic Research Corporation
DRS Technologies
EMC Corporation
Federal Insights
Fortress Technologies, Inc.
General Dynamics Corporation
Govplace
GTSI
Harris Corporation
Hewlett Packard
Honeywell International
HP Enterprise Services
IBM
ICF International
iFour LLC
Information International Associates (IIa)
INTEGRITYOne Partners
K-Force Government Solutions (KGS)
Kollmorgen Electro-Optical
L-3 Communications
Lockheed Martin Corporation
McKenna Long & Aldridge, LLP
Meggitt USA
Meridian Government Services
Metters Industries, Inc.
NetStar-1
Nortel Government Solutions
Northrop Grumman Corporation
Oracle
OST, Inc.
Panasonic Corp. of North America
Pragmatics
PricewaterhouseCoopers
PRTM Management Consultants, LLC
Qbase
QinetiQ North America
Qwest Government Services
Rainmakers Government Solutions, LLC
Raytheon Company
Rockwell Collins
SAIC
SAS Institute, Inc.
Segovia, Inc.
Serco
SiloSmashers
Sprint
SRA International
SRC
Suss Consulting
Sypris Electronics, LLC
TerreStar Networks
The Veschi Group
TIBCO
Unisys Corporation
USIS
Vangent, Inc.
VeriSign
Verizon Business
Vistronix, Inc.
Contacts
Jim Serafin, Vice President, Market Forecasting703.284.5359, [email protected]
Joan Piccariello, Senior Director, Market Forecasting703.284.5314, [email protected]
Sponsors: Please contact Jim Serafin, 703.284.5359, [email protected] about sponsorship opportunities
For more information or to register for the Vision Conference, visit www.techamericafoundation.org