EPIDEMIOLOGY OF ROAD TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS

AND COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS

IN SRI LANKAN CONTEXT

Amal S. Kumarage, Senior Professor of Civil Engineering,

Head, Department of Transport & Logistics ManagementUniversity of Moratuwa

kumarage@sltnet.lk

Sri Lanka Medial AssocaitionJune 2010

IN SRI LANKAN CONTEXT

Moscow Ministerial Conference

19/20 November 2009

www.1300000.net

www.road-safety-conf.net

Trends in Growth Rates (1980=100)

300

350

400

450

500

550

Gro

wth

Rate

(1

98

0=

10

0)

Operational Vehicles

Operated Vehicle kilometers

Road Accident

Passenger km

Accident Fatality

Population

50

100

150

200

250

300

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Year

Gro

wth

Rate

(1

98

0=

10

0)

Year Road

Accident Fatalities

All Deaths

Ratio

1977 892 103,284 116

1978 864 93,971 109

1979 939 94,244 100

1980 1,106 91,020 82

1981 1,238 88,481 71

1982 1,249 92,244 74

1983 1,362 95,174 70

1984 1,302 100,725 77

1985 1,305 98,089 75

1986 1,479 96,145 65

1987 1,232 99,756 81

1988 1,381 95,934 69

1989 1,592 105,239 66

1990 1,788 97,716 55

1991 1,532 95,574 62 1991 1,532 95,574 62

1992 1,515 98,380 65

1993 1,402 96,179 69

1994 1,608 100,394 62

1995 1,669 104,707 63

1996 1,724 122,161 71

1997 1,823 114,782 63

1998 1,945 111,405 57

1999 2,056 114,472 56

2000 2,144 112,569 53

2001 2,158 111,100 51

2002 2,175 110,637 51

2003 1,9332004 2,1162005 2,1412006 2,033

Since 1980..45,000 deaths

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

Fata

lity

Rate

all users

veh. user

pedestrians

Death

s p

er

100,0

00 p

op

ula

tio

n

63%

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Year

Fata

lity

Rate

Fata

lity

Rate

-D

eath

s p

er

100,0

00 p

op

ula

tio

n

37%

� According to the Police Statistics, there were 31,776 road accidents in Sri Lanka in the year 2006.

� Of these, 2,033 accidents were fatal, while 4,616, 10,673 and 14,451 were reported as ‘Grievous’, ‘Non-grievous’ and ‘Damage only’ accidents respectively.

� There were 245,422 accidents reported to insurance only.

� The cost of accidents for the year 2006 is Rs 19.9 billion.

Class of Accident

2004 2005 2006 2004 2005 2006

Fatal 2,116 2,141 2,033 4,890 5,479 6,078

Grievous 4,560 4,968 4,616 1,057 1,275 1,415

Non-Grievous 13,918 14,376 10,673 1,827 2,089 2,318

Damaged Only - Reported 32,684 21,681 14,451 2,825 2,075 2,302

Total (Police Records) 53,278 43,166 31,773 10,599 10,918 14,166

Damaged Only - Unreported 245,422 270,000 - 4,698 5,734

Total (with Insurance records) 53,278 288,588 301,773 10,599 15,616 19,900

No of Accidents Cost in Rs Millions

Uva Province

3%

Nothern Province

2% Eastern Province

3%Southern Province

6%

Sabaragamuwa

Province

7%

Central Province

9%

North Western

Province

9%

Western Province

59%

North Central

Province

2%

Fatal Accidents in Sri Lanka 2002

Percentage of Road Accidents by Province (2002 )

9% Fatal Accidents in Sri Lanka 2002

Eastern Province

5%

Nothern Province

3%

Uva Province

3%

Central Province

7%

Sabaragamuwa

Province

8%

North Central Province

2%Western Province

39%

Southern Province

12%

North Western Province

21%

Percentage of Fatal Road Accidents by

Province (2002)

Province

Fatality Rate

per 10^6 Vehicle Kms

RankPer 10^5

PopulationRank

Central 0.22 6 7.41 5

North Central 0.15 7 3.80 7

North Western 0.38 1 19.14 1

Sabaragamuwa 0.27 4 11.97 3

Southern 0.32 2 10.23 4

Uva 0.30 3 5.89 6Uva 0.30 3 5.89 6

Western 0.22 5 17.01 2

27.73 12.32

A1 (Kandy Road)– 140

A2 (Galle Road) - 150

A3 (Puttalam Road)-200

A4 (Ratnapura Road)-60

Total on 400 kms – 550 fatal accidents

Western Province 40% of Fatal Accidents-824 accidents

Accidents per Police Division

Vehicle TypeFatal Injury Damage Only Total

# Rank # Rank # Rank # Rank

Motor Cycle 600 1 6,104 1 2,815 6 9,519 5

Bus 498 2 3,103 3 9,475 4 13,076 3

Light Vehicle 485 3 4,003 2 18,968 1 23,456 1Light Vehicle 485 3 4,003 2 18,968 1 23,456 1

Lorry 454 4 2,723 6 10,087 3 13,264 4

Bicycle 364 5 2,798 5 353 8 3,515 7

3 Wheeler 189 6 2,970 4 4,201 5 7,360 6

Car 176 7 2,002 7 17,349 2 19,527 2

Other Vehicles 116 8 342 9 1,654 7 2,112 8

Land Vehicle 85 9 346 8 350 9 781 9

2,967 24,391 65,252 92,610

Users Type

2002

No of Vehicles involved in Fatal Accidents

Faulty Rate for Fatal AccidentsTotal

Faulty Drivers/ Rider

Pedestrian 5%

Bicycle 364 87 24%

Motor Cycle 600 371 62%

3 Wheeler 189 126 67%3 Wheeler 189 126 67%

Car 176 139 79%

Light Vehicle 485 403 83%

Land Vehicle 85 67 79%

Forces Vehicle 19 15 79%

Private Bus 415 349 84%

SLCTB Bus 83 65 78%

Lorry 454 372 82%

Other Vehicles 97 47 48%

2,967 2,041 69%

Casualty Type All Casualties % Fatalities %

Pedestrian 7,232 30 815 37

Rider 4,095 17 339 16

Driver 3,280 13 216 10

Pax. SLCTB 486 2 26 1

Pax. Pvt Bus 1,189 5 51 2

Pax (Other) 5,119 21 388 18

Cyclist 2,922 12 340 16

24,303 2,175

Vulnerable Road Users

Casualty Type Fatalities

Total Casualty @ Fault Faulty Rate (%)

Pedestrian 815 43 5

Rider 339 180 53Rider 339 180 53

Driver 216 148 69

Pax. SLCTB 26 1 4

Pax. Pvt Bus 51 11 22

Pax (Other) 388 20 54

Cyclist 340 83 24

2,175 486 22

Pedestrian Activity Injury Type Total

Fatal Grievous Non-Grievous

Walking on shoulder or sidewalk 317 403 1,742 2,462

Walking on road carriageway 19 31 214 264

Crossing road not on a marked Pedestrian 409 578 2,659 3,646

Crossing road on a marked Pedestrian 15 28 88 131

Playing on Road 0 1 9 10

Pedestrian after drinks/drugs 1 2 3 6

Any other action 54 131 556 714

Total 815 1,147 5,271 7,233

9 - 12 yrs

5%DL not required

8%

No DL

23%

Not known

4%> 12 yrs

18%

6 - 9 yrs

8%

3 - 6 yrs

9%

0 - 3 yrs

25%

…….to make roads safer for all users as a matter of priority and urgency……

� Present trend indicates 3 to 5% growth in accidents, casualties & fatalities. This to be arrested and reversed as follows:

� Present (2010) – 6,000 (fatal & grievous)

� Target (2015) – Reduce 1,000 - i.e. by 15%

� Target (2020) – Reduce 1,500 - i.e. by 25%

(if we do this we will save around 5,000 people in 10 years)

� Road Safety Audits

� Road Safety Index

� Insurance as a Deterrent

� Demerit Points

� Safety Research� Safety Research

� Safety Education

� Selected Traffic Enforcement programs (STEP)

� Coordination of Road Safety Programs

� Funding of Road Safety Programs

� Road Safety Campaigns

� Global Road Safety Partnership

� RDA to ensure that there are minimum level of pedestrian facilities and lighting, on A1,A2,A3 & A4 in Western Province (approx 200 kms).A4 in Western Province (approx 200 kms).

� Also above in Municipal areas on which any road having traffic over 10,000 vehicles per day.

� RDA/PRDAs/MCs to allocate funding to identify and treat the worst 10 accident blackspots every year.

Comparing Risk of Road Infrastructure – Relative fatality risk/km/year

Building Safer Roads is Cost Effective – Results of the iRAP pilots

Comparing Risk of Road Infrastructure – Relative fatality risk/km/year

1 10 100

� Revamp driver training & testing procedures including computer based testing

� Awareness programs for public

� Introduce a checklist for inspection of mechanical fitness starting from heavy vehiclesstarting from heavy vehicles

� Intensify random road side checking of vehicle fitness

� Pedestrians and cycles to have devices to be more visible at night.

� Strengthen enforcement through Selected Traffic Improvement Programs (STEPs) for speeding, drunk driving, dangerous overtaking, failure to stop at Pedestrian Crossings, use of safety helmet.

Implement Demerit Points System starting with � Implement Demerit Points System starting with Public Service Vehicle drivers

� Intensify public awareness and enforcement of proper wearing of motor cycle helmets.

� Encourage the use of seat belts & enact ASAP

� Each government agency such as RDA, NTC, SLTB, PRDAs, MCs, Traffic Police to submit a plan for each year on how it intends to reduce accidents.

� Establish Road Safety Committees under each Police Division

� Equip National Road Safety Secretariat with qualified personnel

� Immediately activate an accident monitoring and analysis unit under a govt agency with technical support from a university.

� Make changes to Insurance Law so that policies which result in frequent claims have to pay a higher premium.

� Re structure accident analysis & reporting format at Police and legalize the ‘on the spot’ system with reporting system to ensure that only offenders pay from their insurance.

� Studies some years ago indicated that less than 10% of victims got any compensation. The average compensation reported in 1995 was only Rs 1,000/-.

� Insurance companies have legal clauses to avoid responsibility and often pay a small amount and get relatives to sign off any further rights for compensation.

� There is no state institution that assists victims to get compensation.

� Yes, the revised Motor Traffic Act should be tabled in Parliament and adopted as a measure of priority.

Some changes to Insurance Act should be carried � Some changes to Insurance Act should be carried out.

� Regulation regarding de-merit points should be introduced.

� Safety

� Public Complaints -2 595 555� Lost and Found – 2 333222� Lost and Found – 2 333222

� Cancellation (2009) – 73 (63 confirmed by MoT)Flying Squad

GPSGPRS

•Location/map Info

•Time Table

Compliance

•Route Compliance

•Real-time Schedules

•Automatic Log Sheets

•Investigate public

•Facilitate communication between many devices and Operations Centre

•Issue tickets

• Receive fare revisions automatically

• Send ticket sales data to owner/bank/NTC

CCTV

Video/Audio

Systems

Smart Card

Reader

Ticket

Machine

EM

Controller/s

•Investigate public complains immediately

• Random Monitoring of buses

• Remote Quality Checking of Buses

• Trace passenger/crew misbehaviors

owner/bank/NTC

•

• Measure Speed, Fuel, AC etc and other mechanical conditions

•Door controls

•Immobilise buses that do not comply warnings.

• In-bus entertainment

•Announcements

•Advertising

•

• Pay for tickets using pre-paid cards

•Reload cards

•Recognise Drivers/Conductors to run the bus

•

“Next to Creating a human being, the finest thing a man can do is the finest thing a man can do is to save one”.

Abraham Lincoln