24
Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this publication. INITIATING COVERAGE 12 April 2010 OUTPERFORM Cache Logistics Trust S$0.88 @10/04/10 Ramping up logistics yields Target: S$1.23 REIT SINGAPORE CACHE SP / CACHE.SI Janice Ding +(65) 6210 8609 – [email protected] Initiate with Outperform and target price of S$1.23. Cache Logistics Trust is a REIT sponsored by CWT investing in income-producing logistics assets in Asia- Pacific. We value Cache using DDM valuation (discount rate 8.4%) and arrive a target price of S$1.23 which factors in S$220m of potential acquisitions. We believe it is reasonable to assume acquisitions given limited scope for organic growth via asset enhancement as the buildings are relatively new. Our target price offers a total prospective return of 45.1% from potential price upside of 39.2% and forward 2010 yield of 5.9% from its IPO price of S$0.88. Master leases ensure defensible income streams. Cache’s initial portfolio is leased back to its sponsor CWT with a triple net master lease structure. There is limited property expenses and capital expenditure for the REIT on such a structure. Cache’s weighted average lease expiry of 6.4 years is significantly longer than the industrial REIT average of 4.8 years. Pure Singapore logistics play for now. Cache is likely to acquire assets from its sponsor CWT, and from C&P in the short term. Staying Singapore-centric will give it significant edge over its closest peer MapleLog which is subject to higher country risk with a geographically diversified portfolio. The IPO price of S$0.88 prices Cache at book value. At this level, Cache’s annualised yield of 8.8% looks highly attractive against the SREIT sector (0.9 P/BV, 6.8% yield); and its industrial peers AREIT (1.2x P/BV, 6.7% yield ), and MapleLog (at book value, 6.7% yield). Financial summary FYE Dec 2010F 2011F 2012F Revenue (S$ m) 39.3 78.0 78.9 Net property income (S$ m) 37.8 74.9 75.8 Net property income margins (%) 96.0% 96.0% 96.0% Pretax profit (S$ m) 45.0 51.6 52.4 Net profit (S$ m) 45.0 51.6 52.4 Distributable profit (S$ m) 32.9 57.6 58.5 EPU (S cts) 7.1 8.1 8.1 EPU growth (%) N/A 14% 1% P/E (x) 12.5 10.9 10.8 Core EPU (S cts) 4.4 8.1 8.1 Core EPU growth (%) N/A 82% 1% Core P/E (x) 19.8 10.9 10.8 Gross DPU (S cts) 5.2 9.0 9.1 Dividend yield (%) 5.9% 10.2% 10.3% P/BV (x) 1.0 1.0 1.0 ROE (%) 8.2% 9.4% 9.6% Asset leverage (%) 25.6% 42.6% 42.6% EV/EBITDA (x) 21.9 14.2 14.1 CIMB/Consensus (x) N/A N/A N/A Source: Company, CIMB Research, Bloomberg Price chart Market capitalisation & share price info Market cap S$556.3m/US$400.2m Share price perf. (%) 1M 3M 12M 12-mth price range S$0.88/S$0.88 Relative 0.0 0.0 0.0 3-mth avg daily volume 0.0m Absolute 0.0 0.0 0.0 # of shares (m) 632.2 Major shareholders % held Est. free float (%) 75.0 CWT Ltd 12.2 Conv. secs (m) JF Asset Management 6.5 Conv. price ( ) Morgan Stanley 2.5 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 08-Apr 09-Apr -1.00 -0.90 -0.80 -0.70 -0.60 -0.50 -0.40 -0.30 -0.20 -0.10 0.00 Volume '00 (R.H.Scale) Cache Logistics Trust Source: Bloomberg Source: Company, CIMB Research, Bloomberg

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Page 1: 2010 Apr 12 - CIMB - Cache Logistics Trust

Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this publication.

INITIATING COVERAGE

12 April 2010

OUTPERFORM Cache Logistics Trust S$0.88 @10/04/10 Ramping up logistics yields Target: S$1.23

REIT

SIN

GA

POR

E

CACHE SP / CACHE.SI Janice Ding +(65) 6210 8609 – [email protected]

• Initiate with Outperform and target price of S$1.23. Cache Logistics Trust is a REIT sponsored by CWT investing in income-producing logistics assets in Asia-Pacific. We value Cache using DDM valuation (discount rate 8.4%) and arrive a target price of S$1.23 which factors in S$220m of potential acquisitions. We believe it is reasonable to assume acquisitions given limited scope for organic growth via asset enhancement as the buildings are relatively new. Our target price offers a total prospective return of 45.1% from potential price upside of 39.2% and forward 2010 yield of 5.9% from its IPO price of S$0.88.

• Master leases ensure defensible income streams. Cache’s initial portfolio is leased back to its sponsor CWT with a triple net master lease structure. There is limited property expenses and capital expenditure for the REIT on such a structure.Cache’s weighted average lease expiry of 6.4 years is significantly longer than the industrial REIT average of 4.8 years.

• Pure Singapore logistics play for now. Cache is likely to acquire assets from its sponsor CWT, and from C&P in the short term. Staying Singapore-centric will give it significant edge over its closest peer MapleLog which is subject to higher country risk with a geographically diversified portfolio. The IPO price of S$0.88 prices Cache at book value. At this level, Cache’s annualised yield of 8.8% looks highly attractive against the SREIT sector (0.9 P/BV, 6.8% yield); and its industrial peers AREIT (1.2x P/BV, 6.7% yield ), and MapleLog (at book value, 6.7% yield).

Financial summary FYE Dec 2010F 2011F 2012F Revenue (S$ m) 39.3 78.0 78.9 Net property income (S$ m) 37.8 74.9 75.8 Net property income margins (%) 96.0% 96.0% 96.0% Pretax profit (S$ m) 45.0 51.6 52.4 Net profit (S$ m) 45.0 51.6 52.4 Distributable profit (S$ m) 32.9 57.6 58.5 EPU (S cts) 7.1 8.1 8.1 EPU growth (%) N/A 14% 1% P/E (x) 12.5 10.9 10.8 Core EPU (S cts) 4.4 8.1 8.1 Core EPU growth (%) N/A 82% 1% Core P/E (x) 19.8 10.9 10.8 Gross DPU (S cts) 5.2 9.0 9.1 Dividend yield (%) 5.9% 10.2% 10.3% P/BV (x) 1.0 1.0 1.0 ROE (%) 8.2% 9.4% 9.6% Asset leverage (%) 25.6% 42.6% 42.6% EV/EBITDA (x) 21.9 14.2 14.1 CIMB/Consensus (x) N/A N/A N/A

Source: Company, CIMB Research, Bloomberg

Price chart Market capitalisation & share price info Market cap S$556.3m/US$400.2m Share price perf. (%) 1M 3M 12M 12-mth price range S$0.88/S$0.88 Relative 0.0 0.0 0.0 3-mth avg daily volume 0.0m Absolute 0.0 0.0 0.0 # of shares (m) 632.2 Major shareholders % held Est. free float (%) 75.0 CWT Ltd 12.2 Conv. secs (m) JF Asset Management 6.5 Conv. price ( ) Morgan Stanley 2.5

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

1.0

1.0

1.0

08-Apr 09-Apr

-1.00

-0.90

-0.80

-0.70

-0.60

-0.50

-0.40

-0.30

-0.20

-0.10

0.00

Volume '00 (R.H.Scale) Cache Logistics Trust

Source: Bloomberg Source: Company, CIMB Research, Bloomberg

Page 2: 2010 Apr 12 - CIMB - Cache Logistics Trust

[ 2 ]

Background Pure Singapore logistics play. Trading starts today for Cache Logistics Trust, a

REIT that invests in income-producing logistics assets in Asia-Pacific. Sponsored by CWT Limited, the initial portfolio consists of six logistics assets located in Singapore totalling 3.9m sf in gross floor area (GFA) valued at S$730m. Cache has two properties in each of the three major logistics clusters in Singapore – the Airport Logistics Park of Singapore (ALPS), Changi International LogisPark South and Penjuru/Pandan area in the Jurong Industrial Estate. The single most significant asset in the portfolio is CWT Commodity Hub, which is the largest warehouse in Singapore and one of the largest in Southeast Asia, and has a London Metal Exchange (LME) status for about 4% of its GFA.

Master leases ensure defensible income streams. Cache’s leases are well structured to ensure long term, defensible income. These include: 1. Long master lease durations ranging from 5 to 10 years, and a weighted average

lease expiry (WALE) of 6.4 years. This is significantly longer than the industrial REIT average of 4.8 years.

2. All the leases have built-in annual rental escalation of 1.5% p.a. 3. Cache has no significant property expense or capital expenditure at the REIT

level. All its assets are leased on a triple net basis whereby master lessees bear all property expenses including land rent, property tax, insurance and all outgoings expenses. Capital expenditure is also limited at under S$1m for the first two years, as the properties are relatively new (average 2.12 years, weighted by GFA, assuming a commencement date of 1 Jan 2010).

Figure 1: Location of assets

1. CWT Commodity Hub, 24 Penjuru Road 2. CWT Cold Hub, 2 Fishery Port Road 3. C&P Changi Districentre 2, 3 Changi South Street 3 4. C&P Changi Districentre, 5 Changi South Lane 5. Schenker Megahub, 51 ALPS Avenue 6. Hi-Speed Logistics Centre, 40 ALPS Avenue

Source: Company

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[ 3 ]

Figure 2: Initial portfolio details

Completed Acquisitions LocationDate of Acquisition GFA

Purchase Price Unit price

Valuation as at 31 Oct 2009*

(sf) (S$ m) (S$ psf) (S$ m) 1 CWT Commodity Hub 24 Penjuru Road Apr-10 2,295,994 323.0 140.7 325.5 2 CWT Cold Hub 2 Fishery Port Road Apr-10 341,944 122.0 356.8 129.6 3 Schenker Megahub 51 Alps Avenue Apr-10 439,956 99.0 225.0 101.0 4 Hi-Speed Logistics Centre 40 Alps Avenue Apr-10 364,278 82.0 225.1 83.3 5 C&P Changi Districentre 5 Changi South Lane Apr-10 308,626 69.5 225.2 70.8 6 C&P Changi Districentre 2 3 Changi South Lane Apr-10 105,945 17.7 167.1 19.8

TOTAL 3,856,743 713.2 730.0 AVERAGE 223.3

Source: Company, CIMB Research, *Average of Knight Frank and CBRE valuations

Figure 3: Master lease agreements Annual rent in

Year 1 of lease term

Initial Leaseback Period on Master Lease Option to renew

Leasehold term for underlyingg land from JTC

(S$ m) (year) (year) (year)CWT Commodity Hub CWT 28.9 5 to 10 * Yes, not less than 5 years 29 yr wef 19 Aug 2006CWT Cold Hub CWT 9.8 5 Yes, not less than 5 years 30 yr wef 20 Dec 2005 + 30 yearsSchenker Megahub C&P Land Pte Ltd 7.4 Over 6yr, expiring on 31 Aug 2016 Yes, not less than 5 years 30yr wef 1 Jun 2005 + 30 yearsC&P Changi Districentre C&P Distribution Pte Ltd 6.1 5 Yes, not less than 5 years 30yr wef 16 Aug 2005 + 30 yearsHi-Speed Logistics Centre C&P Distribution Pte Ltd 5.2 Over 6yr, expiring on 15 Oct 2016 Yes, not less than 5 years 30yr wef 16 Aug 2005 + 30 yearsC&P Changi Districentre 2 C&P 1.5 5 Yes, not less than 5 years 30yr wef 16 Feb 1996 + 30 years

Property Master Lessee

*

Source: Company, CIMB Research Master lease agreement is for 5yr. In event that Master Lease agreement for CWT Commodity Hub is not renewed at the end of the initial 5-year term, three separate lease agreements (“CWT Commodity Hub Individual Lease Agreement”) will commence at the expiration of the initial Master Lease term. The individual lease agreements will range from one to five years.

Grade A logistics assets. 97.3% of Cache’s portfolio (in GFA) is made up of modern ramp-up warehouses. A ramp-up warehouse is essentially a multi-storey warehouse with an added ramp which would enable direct vehicular access to every unit at every level. This type of warehouse offers many advantages over conventional multi-storey warehouses for both developers/owners (lower capex needs, ability to command premium rents and attract MNC tenants) as well as end-users (lower service charge, increased operational efficiency and flexibility). Ramp-up warehouses are also relatively tight in supply. As at Dec 09, DTZ Consulting estimates there were only 1.4m sm of such warehouses, or 20% of the islandwide warehouse supply. Cache holds25% market share of this limited ramp-up warehouse supply.

Figure 4: Schenker Megahub (ramp-up warehouse)

Source: Company

Page 4: 2010 Apr 12 - CIMB - Cache Logistics Trust

[ 4 ]

Figure 5: Advantages of ramp-up warehouses over conventional multi-storey warehouses

Advantages of ramp-up warehouses Implication for developers / owners Implication for end-users

No need for installation of conventional cargo lifts Lower capex needsLower service charge as cargo lifts consume large amount of electricity and require higher maintainence

Higher building efficiency with no need to provide for cargo lifts and common areas (up to 95% vs conventional efficiency of 80-85%)

Translates to higher rental income with increased rentable area -

Direct vehicular access to every unit Able to command premium ground floor rent

Increased operational efficiency:- Reduction in contact points when loading/unloading will reduce opportunities for loss of goods/compromise in security; - Reduced manpower required for security checks; - Increased speed in loading/unloading

Multiple loading docks Able to command premium ground floor rent Increased speed in transportation of goods

Typically higher building specifications:- Higher floor-to-ceiling height (8-11m vs conventional 6-7m) - Increased column width (11.4m by 1.4m vs conventional 11m by 11m)- Higher floor loading (20-25kn/m2 vs conventional 15-20 kn/m2) Able to attract quality MNC tenants Increased flexiblity for end-usersTend to be much larger than conventional multi-storey warehouses Able to attract quality MNC tenants Increased flexiblity for end-users

Source: Colliers International Research, CIMB Research

Reputable master lessees. These include sponsor CWT, and C&P which is major shareholder of CWT. Both CWT and C&P are established logistics players in Singapore.

CWT: Set up in 1970 as the private arm of the Port of Singapore Authority to complement the commencement of container terminal operations in Singapore, CWT has since grown into the largest listed logistics service company in South-East Asia,enjoying market leadership in its sector. In January this year, the Economic Development Board (EDB) invested S$12.6m in CWT via EDB Investments (EDBI). We believe this signals EDB’s confidence in CWT’s ability to enhance Singapore’s position as a global logistics hub

C&P is a privately-owned logistics company with core business divisions spanning warehousing, transport, chemical storage and management, shipping, air cargo, commodities and collateral management. C&P acquired shareholding control of CWTwhen it bought over PSA’s entire stake in CWT in 2004. Currently, C&P holds 35.9% of the issued share capital of CWT.

Value-add from master lessees. Apart from a quality portfolio, we believe that both master lessees, as logistics players, have much advantage in attracting and retaining MNC end-users over pure landlords, due to their ability to provide supporting services to their tenants including bundling, packaging, reverse logistics, transportation, inventory management, freight and use of space. The master lessees also demonstrate high retention rate of 95% p.a. for the last three years at the properties. The breakdown of subtenant lease agreements with the master lessees show that more than half will only expire beyond 2010.

Figure 6: Service Agreement & Sub-Lease Agreement Lease Expiry Profile

2010 2011 2012 Beyond 2012% of Occupied GFA 26.2% 7.9% 12.3% 53.6%

Service Agreement & Sub-Lease Agreement Lease Expiry Profile

Source: Company

Quality end-users to enhance portfolio stability. More than 90% of Cache’s end-users made up of MNCs and government agencies. Additionally, end-users have committed capital expenditure on the fit-out of 71.6% of occupied GFA. We believe this will translate to continued high retention rates for both the master lessees and income stability for Cache.

Page 5: 2010 Apr 12 - CIMB - Cache Logistics Trust

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Figure 7: Profile of end-users

By type By Trade Sector

85.2%

6.2% 8.6%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

1

MNCsGov ernment agenciesSMEs

% of Occupied GFA

No ofEnd-Users

Industrial & consumer goods 53.0% 14Commodities & chemicals 23.0% 5Food & cold storage 8.4% 7Aerospace 6.0% 2Healthcare 3.9% 2Courier services 2.0% 1Hospitality 3.7% 2

Source: Company, CIMB Research,

Right of first refusal for 13 properties totalling 3m sf. Both CWT and C&P offerCache the right of first refusal (ROFR) over the future sale of their owned logistics assets in the Asia Pacific. As at 31 Dec 09, there are 11 properties (totalling 2.2m sf) owned by CWT in Singapore and China; and 2 properties (totalling more than 723,651 sf) owned by C&P in Singapore which are subject to the ROFR.

Additionally, both master lessees are highly skilled in ramp-up warehouse development. CWT and C&P have been responsible for about 60% of new ramp-up warehouse developments since 2007. We anticipate that CWT and C&P’s continued warehouse development will provide a continual acquisition pipeline for Cache both in Singapore and in the region.

Figure 8: Cache’s potential pipeline from the CWT and C&P ROFR

1) C&P Hub 3 is subject to an existing right of first refusal. Cache will only be able to acquire C&P Hub 3 if the property has not been acquired pursuant to the existing right of first refusal.

Source: Company

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[ 6 ]

Competition in Singapore. As at Dec 09, there was some 6.9m sq m of warehouse space in Singapore that is almost wholly owned (99%) by the private sector. Large clusters of warehouses have been developed the airport in the East of Singapore, and the seaport in the West. Ownership is highly fragmented in Singapore with many market players. Cache’s competitors for warehouse space in the private sector include the four listed industrial REITs: Ascendas REIT, Mapletree Logistics Trust, Cambridge Industrial Trust, and AIMSAMP REIT; private equity funds, as well as industrialists who are end-users of the properties. MapleLog is Cache’s closest competitor, being also a pure logistics REIT. Cache is about one quarter of MapleLog in terms of market cap and asset size.

ARA-CWT Trust Management (Cache) Limited is the manager of Cache Logistics Trust. The REIT manager is 60% owned by ARA and 40% owned by the sponsor CWT. Separately, the property manager of Cache is 60% owned by CWT and 40% owned by ARA.

Outlook Double-digit growth forecasted for Asian Pacific and Singapore logistics

markets. According to DTZ’s Independent review of the logistics property market, the Asian Pacific contract logistics market size has grown by more than 10% annually since 2004, led by Japan and China. However, penetration rate is still relatively low at 10%, inferring that 90% of logistics activities are still conducted in-house. As industry players continue to focus on increasing operational efficiencies and profitability, outsourcing of logistics operations to 3PLs is expected to increase. TransportIntelligence forecasted that the Asia Pacific contract logistics market will grow at CAGR of 11.3% between 2007-11 to reach S$121.3bn; and Singapore would grow at a CAGR of 16% to S$1.8bn by 2011.

Singapore has been able to draw many global logistics players to locate their operations here with its strategic location, established logistics hub status and regulatory support in the form of incentives schemes. According to SJ Consulting, 21 of 25 global logistics providers have significant presence in Singapore. This augurs well for the demand for logistics space in Cache’s portfolio.

Figure 9: Selected Asia Pacific Contract Logistics Market

Source: Transport Intelligence, DTZ Consulting

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[ 7 ]

Figure 10: Top 25 Global Logistics Companies (2008)

Source: SJ Consulting, DTZ Consulting * Refers to companies that do not have a presence in Singapore.

Limited land supply for development logistics parks. Non strata-titled warehouses are typically developed with land obtained from JTC Corporation, the national agency and developer of industrial infrastructure. According to JTC, only some 40ha, or 11% of the land designated for the development of logistics parks remains unallocated. Out of the 8 logistics parks, two of them (Changi International LogisPark South and Clementi West LogisPark) have no more land supply for future development.

Figure 11: Top 25 Global Logistics Companies (2008)

Source: DTZ Consulting

Page 8: 2010 Apr 12 - CIMB - Cache Logistics Trust

[ 8 ]

Figure12: Prepared Industrial Land for Logistics Parks

Source: JTC, DTZ Consulting

Figure13: Summary of Logistics Parks

Source: JTC, DTZ Consulting

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Warehouse rents and prices starting to trend up. An examination of the 75th

percentile warehouse rents (reflecting higher quality warehouses) showed peak rents of S$1.87psf/mth in 4Q08, a 25% yoy increase tracking strong economic growth in 2007. Although rents fell under the impact of the global economic downturn for three quarters in 2009, we saw a recovery by 4Q09 of 4% qoq. The same trend of recovery is repeated in median prices for multiple-user warehouse space which saw a 5% qoq increase in 4Q09. We believe the upward trend will continue with gradual global economic recovery, auguring well for Cache’s portfolio.

Figure14: 75th percentile rents for multiple-user warehouse

Source: URA, DTZ Consulting

Figure15: Median prices for multiple-user warehouse

Source: URA, DTZ Consulting

Page 10: 2010 Apr 12 - CIMB - Cache Logistics Trust

[ 10 ]

Figure 16: SWOT analysis

Strengths Opportunities

• Grade A logistics assets • Logistics sponsor/master lessees able to value-add with supporting

services, more edge over pure landlords • Weighted average lease expiry of 6.4years above industrial REIT average

of 4.8% • 12 months of security deposits for all leases

• Low asset leverage • Right of first refusal to CWT and C&P assets • Sponsor has warehouse development expertise, able to incubate future

development projects for Cache.

Weaknesses Threats

• Tenant concentration risk • Asset concentration risk • Country concentration risk • Limited scope for asset enhancement

• Subject to interest rate volatility • Intense competition for tenants/end-users and assets for acquisitions from

other industrial REITs, private funds and industry players. • REIT manager has no track record in managing industrial REITs.

Source: Company, CIMB Research

Risks Tenant concentration risk. Cache is wholly dependent on its master lessees CWT and C&P for rental income. Failure of the master lessees to fulfil lease obligations mayseverely impact on Cache’s ability to distribute dividends to its unitholders. Nonetheless, we believe that this risk is significantly mitigated by the following: 1) payment of a upfront 12 months security deposit for each of the leases in the form of cash or bank guarantees; and 2) relative ease in finding end-user tenants with Cache’s quality portfolio.

Asset concentration risk. There is considerable asset concentration risk with almost half of the revenue contribution attributed to CWT Commodity Hub. In event of any occurrence which may impact the building, such as Acts of God, and non-land renewal and/or change of land use by the authorities, rental contribution to Cache may be severely impacted. This risk is moderately mitigated, in our view, by industrial all risk insurance undertaken by the master lessees.

Figure 17: Portfolio breakdown

By GFA By Rental Contribution

CWT Cold Hub9%

CWT Commodity

Hub60%

Schenker 11% Hi-Speed

8%

C&P Changi Distri9%

C&P Changi Distri 2

3%

C&P Changi Distri 2

3%

C&P Changi Distri10%

Hi-Speed 9%

Schenker 13%

CWT Commodity

Hub48%

CWT Cold Hub17%

Source: Company, CIMB Research,

Country concentration risk. All of Cache’s warehouses are located in Singapore and any decline in Singapore’s distribution hub status could impair on its end-users/master lessee’s ability to fulfil lease obligations, and hence Cache’s ability to distribute dividends to its withholders.

Intensifying competition in the REIT space. As the economy and credit conditions in Singapore improve, we expect competition in the REIT space for both tenants and acquisition targets to intensify.

Asset leverage capped at 35%. With no credit rating for now, Cache’s asset leverage is capped at 35%. There is no assurance that it will be able to obtain a credit rating to raise its leverage ceiling to 60%. If Cache is unable to obtain a credit rating, this may impact on its acquisition growth strategy.

REIT manager may not be able to deliver. The REIT manager of Cache, ARA-CWT Trust Management (Cache) has no established track record in managing industrial

Page 11: 2010 Apr 12 - CIMB - Cache Logistics Trust

[ 11 ]

REITs. Hence, there is no assurance that the manager will be able to deliver. However, this moderately mitigated, in our view, by the experience in REIT and real estate management brought on board by its key management:

• Mr Daniel Cerf, CEO : Previous CEO of KREIT Asia, 20 years experience in real estate management and development in Asia

• Mr Foo Say Chuang, Director and Head of Asset Management: Previous General Manager in CWT, more than 25 years experience in logistics.

• Mr Ho Jiann Ching, Director and Head of Investment: Previous Director of Business Development in Ayala International, more than 16 years experience in real estate investment, development, asset management and marketing in the region.

Financials Asset leverage at 26%. As at listing, Cache has S$191m of debt (including upfront fees), drawn earlier to part finance its initial portfolio. This represents 26% leverage on its S$730m asset base. Currently, Cache does not have any credit rating. Hence asset leverage is capped at 35%. This implies debt headroom of S$101m to fund potential acquisitions. However, if it is able to obtain a credit rating (which would raise the asset leverage ceiling from 35% to 60%), and assuming a gearing target of 45%, Cache’s debt headroom will be increased to S$252m, significant enough for sizeable acquisitions.

Factoring S$220m of acquisitions. As the age of the initial portfolio is relatively young, we anticipate there would be more scope for growth via acquisitions, rather than organic growth via asset enhancement in the short term. We also expect near-term acquisitions to be focused in Singapore rather than overseas. Out of the assets which are under the CWT and C&P ROFR, we deduce that CWT Logistics Hub 1 and C&P Logistics Hub 3 are the most likely to be injected in the short term as both are operationally ready. Assuming a sale price of S$200psf for the combined 1.1m sf of space between the two assets, we estimate an acquisition quantum of S$220m in 2011. We assume that the assets will be acquired 8% net property yield, and wholly financed with debt by 2011, when it has obtained credit rating.

NPI margin assumption at 97%. We expect net property income (NPI) margins from new acquisitions to be on par with those of its existing portfolio as it is likely to structure similar triple net lease terms with future tenants or master lessees. We have applied the same margins of 97% to its potential acquisitions.

Consistent and stable revenue. Projection for Cache’s revenue is highly visible, with the first year of rental contribution and annual escalation of 1.5% p.a.

Limited capex needs. We expect limited capex needs as the initial properties are relatively new. We have assumed under S$1m of capex needs in our model.

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[ 12 ]

Figure18: Key assumptions used KEY ASSUMPTIONSRental growth forecast (%) 2010F 2011F 2012FCWT Commodity Hub - 1.5% 1.5%CWT Cold Hub - 1.5% 1.5%Schenker Megahub - 1.5% 1.5%Hi-Speed Logistics Centre - 1.5% 1.5%C&P Changi Districentre - 1.5% 1.5%C&P Changi Districentre 2 - 1.5% 1.5%Portfolio Average - 1.5% 1.5%

GFA (sf) 2010F 2011F 2012FCWT Commodity Hub 2,295,994 2,295,994 2,295,994 CWT Cold Hub 341,944 341,944 341,944 Schenker Megahub 439,956 439,956 439,956 Hi-Speed Logistics Centre 364,278 364,278 364,278 C&P Changi Districentre 308,626 308,626 308,626 C&P Changi Districentre 2 105,945 105,945 105,945 Portfolio Total 3,856,743 3,750,798 3,750,798

Rental Rates (Triple Net) S$psf/mth 2010F 2011F 2012FCWT Commodity Hub 1.05 1.07 1.08 CWT Cold Hub 2.40 2.44 2.47 Schenker Megahub 1.40 1.42 1.44 Hi-Speed Logistics Centre 1.40 1.42 1.44 C&P Changi Districentre 1.40 1.42 1.44 C&P Changi Districentre 2 1.20 1.22 1.24 Portfolio S$psf/mth 1.48 1.50 1.52

Occupancy Rates (%) 2010F 2011F 2012FCWT Commodity Hub 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%CWT Cold Hub 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%Schenker Megahub 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%Hi-Speed Logistics Centre 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%C&P Changi Districentre 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%C&P Changi Districentre 2 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%Portfolio Average 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

PROJECTED REVENUEProperty rental revenue (Existing) S$m 2010F 2011F 2012FCWT Commodity Hub 28.930 29.363 29.804 CWT Cold Hub 9.848 9.996 10.146 Schenker Megahub 7.391 7.502 7.615 Hi-Speed Logistics Centre 6.120 6.212 6.305 C&P Changi Districentre 5.185 5.263 5.342 C&P Changi Districentre 2 1.526 1.548 1.572 A: Total Revenue from existing portfolio 58.999 59.884 60.782

New acquisitions S$mProperty acquisition assumptions S$ m 0 220 0Net property yields 8.0% 8.0% 8.0%NPI margin (%) 97.0% 97.0% 97.0%Occupancy levels of new acquisitions 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%Additional gross revenue from development - 18.14 - Contribution to revenue in current year (%) 50.0% 100.0% 100.0%Contribution to revenue in current year S$m - 18.14 - B: Cummulative revenue from acquisitions - 18.14 18.14

TOTAL REVENUE (A+B) 39.33 78.03 78.93

Note: Assume 8 months of revenue contribution in 2010 from listing in April

Other assumptions 2010F 2011F 2012FCost of debt 4.50% 4.00% 4.00%REIT manager fees

Base fees (% of Assets) 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%Performance fees (% of Net Property Income) 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%

% of REIT manager fees paid in units 75.0% 75.0% 75.0%Acquisition fees (of purchase price) 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% Not applicable to IPO propertiesDivestment fees (of divestment price) 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%

Trustee fees (% of Deposited Property) 0.03% 0.03% 0.03%Property manager fees (% of Gross Revenue) 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%Lease management fees (% of Gross Revenue) 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% Waiver on IPO properties for 3 years

Source: CIMB Research

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Valuation and recommendation Management will concentrate on acquisition growth strategy. We understand that

the management intends to focus more on growth via acquisition in the next 1-2 years as there is relatively limited scope for organic growth via asset enhancement, the properties being relatively new. Hence, we believe it is reasonable to assume acquisitions even at this stage. We also deduce that starting with acquisitions from the sponsor’s Singapore assets is easier for Cache as assessing overseas acquisitions will require considerable more time.

DDM-derived valuation of S$1.23. We have used DDM to value Cache, the methodology we use to value all the REITs under our coverage. The average cost of debt has been estimated at 4.5% for its current indebtedness. We use a discount rate of 8.4%, derived from a risk-free rate of 4%, an equity risk premium of 4.4% and a beta of 1.0. The discount rate used is in line with that used for AREIT, which is also Singapore-centric. We have also assumed a terminal growth rate of 1.3%. We arrive at a DPU estimate of 5.17cts in 2010 (based on 8 months of revenue contribution from April) and 8.98cts in 2011 with our acquisition assumptions. This translates to a prospective dividend yield of 5.9% for 2010 (or 8.8% on an annualised basis) and 10.2% for 2011 from its IPO price of S$0.88. Our target price from the DDM valuation is S$1.23.

Without any acquisition assumptions, our DPU estimates for 2011-12 will be lowered by 14%, and target price will be S$1.06.

Figure 19: DPU and target price change with and without acquisition scenario

DPU forecast (S cts) 2010F 2011F 2012FTarget

price

Assuming S220m acquisitions 5.17 8.98 9.05 1.23$ Assuming no acquisitions 5.17 7.72 7.80 1.06$ Change in DPU forecast -14% -14%

Source: CIMB Research

Initiate coverage with Outperform. Our target price of S$1.23 offers a total prospective return of 45.1% from potential price upside of 39.2% and forward 2010yield of 5.9% from its IPO price of S$0.88.

We like Cache for its quality portfolio, visible income streams, and strong sponsor-cum-master lessee. Further, the prospect of Cache of being able to acquire while staying Singapore-centric in the short term will give it significant edge over its closest peer MapleLog which is subject to higher country risk with a geographically diversified portfolio.

The IPO price of S$0.88 prices Cache at book value. At this level, Cache’s annualised yield of 8.8% looks highly attractive against the SREIT sector which is trading at 0.93 and offering average yields of 6.8%; and also vs its industrial peers AREIT (1.2x P/BV, 6.7% yield ), and MapleLog (at book value, 6.7% yield). Only Cambridge Industrial Trust appears to be considerably cheaper at 0.8x P/V and 10.2% yields. Nonetheless, we believe the discounted position indicates its weaker capital position (asset leverageat 42.6%) and portfolio quality.

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Figure 20: SREIT overview

REITBloomberg

TickerPrice as of

10 Apr 2010

Lastreported

assetleverage

Laststated

NAV

Price /Stated

NAV

TargetPrice

(DDM-based) Rec.

2010Yield

2011Yield

2012Yield

Total return(Prospective

price upside +2010 yield)

HospitalityAscott Residence Trust ART SP $1.26 40.6% 1.34 0.94 1.35$ N 6.5% 6.8% 6.9% 13.7%CDL Hospitality Trust CDREIT SP $1.90 30.0% 1.43 1.33 2.01$ O 6.0% 6.6% 6.9% 11.7%

35.3% 1.13 6.3% 6.7% 6.9%IndustrialAscendas Reit AREIT SP $1.95 31.2% 1.61 1.21 2.02$ U 6.7% 7.4% 7.6% 10.2%Cache Logistics Trust CACHE SP $0.88 25.9% 0.87 1.01 1.23$ O 5.9% 10.2% 10.3% 45.1%Cambridge Industrial Trust CREIT SP $0.50 42.6% 0.60 0.83 0.53$ NR 10.2% 10.4% 10.0%Mapletree Logistics Trust MLT SP $0.84 36.7% 0.85 0.98 0.74$ U 6.7% 6.9% 6.9% -4.6%

34.1% 1.01 7.4% 8.7% 8.7%OfficeFraser Commercial Trust FCOT SP $0.15 40.4% 0.27 0.56 0.16$ NR 10.0% 7.3% 7.3%CapitaCommercial Trust CCT SP $1.10 33.2% 1.41 0.78 1.09$ U 6.7% 6.7% 7.0% 5.8%K-Reit KREIT SP $1.10 27.7% 1.50 0.73 0.92$ NR 6.3% 6.0% 4.5%Suntec REIT SUN SP $1.37 33.3% 1.78 0.77 1.59$ O 7.2% 7.3% 7.3% 23.2%

31.4% 0.71 7.5% 6.8% 6.6%RetailCapitaMall Trust CT SP $1.81 30.5% 1.56 1.16 1.88$ N 5.1% 5.4% 5.9% 9.0%Frasers Centrepoint Trust FCT SP $1.35 29.7% 1.22 1.11 1.73$ O 5.4% 6.5% 6.7% 33.6%Starhill Global REIT SGREIT SP $0.59 26.9% 0.82 0.72 0.65$ NR 6.6% 6.4% 5.9%

29.0% 1.00 5.7% 6.1% 6.2%HealthcareParkway Life REIT PREIT SP $1.33 27.4% 1.39 0.96 1.57$ O 6.6% 7.0% 7.1% 24.7%

Healthcare simple average 27.4% 0.96 6.6% 7.0% 7.1%S-REITs simple average 32.6% 0.93 6.8% 7.2% 7.2%

O = Outperform, N = Neutral, U = Underperform, NR = Not Rated Source: Company, CIMB Research

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Financial tables PROFIT & LOSS KEY RATIOS

(S$ m, FYE Dec) 2010F 2011F 2012F (FYE Dec) 2010F 2011F 2012F Revenue 39 78 79 Revenue growth (%) N/A 98.4 1.2 Operating expenses (2) (3) (3) EBITDA growth (%) N/A 100.4 1.2 Net property income 38 75 76 Pretax margins (%) 114.4 66.1 66.4 Management fees (3) (6) (6) Net profit margins (%) 114.4 66.1 66.4 Trustee's fees 0 0 0 Interest cover (x) 6.1 4.2 4.2 Net interest & invt income (6) (16) (16) Effective tax rates (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 Associates' contribution 0 0 0 Net dividend payout (%) 73.1 111.7 111.5 Exceptional items & revaluation 17 0 0 Debtors turnover (days) 20.0 10.1 10.0 Others (1) (1) (1) Stock turnover (days) 0.0 0.0 0.0 Pretax profit 45 52 52 Creditors turnover (days) 45.6 23.0 22.7 Tax 0 0 0 Minority interests 0 0 0 Net profit 45 52 52 Distributable profit 33 58 58 Adj. wt. units (m) 637 639 644 Unadj. year-end units (m) 637 642 647 BALANCE SHEET KEY DRIVERS (S$ m, end Dec) 2010F 2011F 2012F (FYE Dec) 2009 2010F 2011F 2012FInvestment properties 731 952 953 Potential acqn & devt (S$m) N/A N/A 220 0 Intangible assets 0 0 0 Logistics rent growth (%) 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% 1.5% Other long-term assets 0 0 0 Total non-current assets 731 952 953 Cash and equivalents 5 4 3 Stocks 0 0 0 Trade debtors 2 2 2 Other current assets 0 0 0 Total current assets 7 7 6 Trade creditors 5 5 5 Short-term borrowings 0 0 0 Other current liabilities 0 0 0 Total current liabilities 5 5 5 Long-term borrowings 184 404 404 Other long-term liabilities 0 0 0 Total long-term liabilities 184 404 404 Shareholders' funds 549 549 549 Minority interests 0 0 0 NTA/unit (S$) 0.86 0.86 0.85 CASH FLOW (S$ m, FYE Dec) 2010F 2011F 2012FPretax profit 45 52 52Depreciation & non–cash adj. 0 0 0Working capital changes 3 0 0Cash tax paid 0 0 0Others (9) 21 21Cash flow from operations 39 72 73Capex (1) (1) (1)Net investments & sale of FA (713) (220) 0Others 1 0 0Cash flow from investing (713) (221) (1)Debt raised/(repaid) 184 220 0Equity raised/(repaid) 525 0 0Dividends paid (33) (58) (58)Cash interest & others (4) (15) (15)Cash flow from financing 673 148 (73)Change in cash (1) (1) (1)Change in net cash/(debt) (185) (221) (1)Ending net cash/(debt) (179) (400) (401)

Source: Company, CIMB Research, Bloomberg

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APPENDICES…

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1. Management profile

Mr Daniel Cerf Chief Executive Officer

Mr Cerf is the Chief Executive Officer of the Manager. He has more than 20 years of experience working on real estate investment and development ventures in Asia. Prior to joining the Manager, he was deputy CEO, and subsequently CEO of K-REIT Asia from 2006-2009. He has also held key director and management positions with First Pacific Land in Hong Kong, Singapore and Malaysia. Mr Cerf is a licensed architect in the United States and holds a Bachelor of Architecture degree (Dean’s list) from the University of Oklahoma, USA.

Mr Ho Jiann Ching Director and Head, Investments

Mr Ho is Director and Head of Investment of the Manager. He has more than 16 year of experience in real estate investment, development, asset management and marketing in the regional property markets. Prior to joining the Manager, Mr Ho spent more than 8 years as the director of business development in Ayala International Holdings Limited (the regional real estate arm of Ayala Corporation, listed in Philippines) from 2001 to 2009. Mr Ho holds a Bachelor of Science (Honours) degree in Estate Management from the National University of Singapore.

Mr Foo Say Chuang Director and Head, Asset Management

Mr Foo is Director and Head of Asset Management of the Manager. He has more than 25 years of experience of logistics experience in local and multinational corporations. Prior to joining the Manager, he was general manager, and subsequently managing director of CWT from 2002 to 2009, where he was responsible for the development and expansion of the Group’s logistics business in Singapore and in the region including Russia, India, Malaysia and Thailand. Mr Foo holds a Bachelor of Business in Transport degree from the Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology.

Ms Serina Lim Finance and Investor Relations Manager

Ms Lim is the Finance Manager and Investor Relations Manager in the Manager. Ms Lim has more than 18 years experience in audit, accounting and finance-related work. Prior to joining the Manager, Ms Lim was assistant vice president (fund finance) with RREEF Alternative Investments (Asia Pacific), the global alternative investment management business of Deutsche Bank’s Asset Management division. Ms Lim holds a Bachelor of Accountancy degree from the National University of Singapore and is a Certified Public Accountant with the Institute of Certified Public Accountants of Singapore.

Source: Company, CIMB-GK Research

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2. Trust structure

Source: Company

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4. Fees payable by CLT

Fee structure

1. Manager’s management fees (a) Base fee 0.5% per annum of the value of consolidated assets.

(b) Performance fee 1.5% per annum of the net property income of CLT in the relevant

financial year.

2. Trustee's fee 0.03% per annum of the value of the deposited property, subject to a minimum of S$15,000 per month, excluding out-of-pocket expenses and GST.

3. Other fees or charges (i) Acquisition fee 1.0% of the acquisition price of any real estate purchased, whether

directly or indirectly by CLT, plus any other payments in connection with the purchase of the real estate (pro-rated if applicable, to CLT’s interest);

(ii) Divestment fee 0.5% of the sale price of any real estate sold or divested, whether

directly or indirectly by CLT, plus any other payments in connection with the sale or divestment of the real estate (pro-rated if applicable to CLT’s interest)

(iii) Property management fee (a) Property management fee of 2.0% per annum of Gross Revenue of each property, payable to the Property Manager (b) Lease management fee of 1% per annum of Gross Revenue of each property, payable to the Property Manager No lease management fee is payable in relation to the Initial Portfolio for the first three years of the initial contracted lease

Source: Company

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5. CWT

Began as a private arm of PSA. CWT was set up in 1970 as the private arm of the Port of Singapore Authority (PSA) to complement the commencement of container terminal operations in Singapore, by building up container trucking capabilities, establishing container depot operations and preparing for land-based container operations. Over the years, CWT diversified into other logistics and related services and was listed on the Singapore Exchange in 1993, the first logistics company to be listed on the main board of SGX.

CWT started a new chapter in 2004 when C&P Holdings (C&P), a privately-owned logistics company, acquired shareholding control of the group after agreeing to buy over PSA’s entire stake of 55% for S$45.8m.

Experienced and committed management. After this purchase, the management team became headed by Group Chairman Mr Loi Kai Meng and Group CEO Mr Loi Pok Yen, both with extensive experience in the logistics business. They focused on improving cost efficiency, marketing and development strategies. Steps were taken to streamline the organisation structure and accelerate growth in Asia by focusing on key regional markets such as China, the Middle East and South-East Asia.

Now an aspiring multi-national logistics solutions provider. CWT now operatesfrom more than 20 countries, offering integrated supply chain logistics solutions to worldwide customers, focusing on three businesses: Logistics, Non-Vessel Operating Common Carrier (NVOCC) also known as International Freight Forwarding and Engineering Maintenance and Facility Management.

Source: CIMB Research

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5. ARA

Managing Asian REITs and private real-estate funds. Listed on the Singapore Exchange on 2 Nov 07, ARA is an Asian real-estate fund-management company established by Mr John Lim and a subsidiary of Cheung Kong Holdings. It focuses on the management of listed REITs and private real-estate funds. As at 31 Dec 09, total assets under management were S$13.5bn.

Four REITs and three private funds. As at 31 Dec 09, ARA managed four REITs with over 8m sf of real estate. The four were Suntec REIT (listed in Singapore), Fortune REIT (listed in Hong Kong and Singapore), Prosperity REIT (listed in Hong Kong) and AMFirst REIT (listed in Malaysia);

ARA also manages three private-estate funds: Asian Dragon Fund (ADF), Asian Asset Income Fund (AAIF) and Harmony Fund. Another fund, the Al Islami Far Eastern Real Estate Fund (the first shariah-compliant private real-estate fund in Asia) was divested in Oct 07 for an internal rate of return of 23.7%.

Major shareholders. ARA is 36.7% owned by Mr John Lim Hwee Chiang, the Group CEO and affiliated with Hong Kong-listed property developer, Cheung Kong Holdings through a 15.62% stake.

Source: CIMB Research

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TRADING BUY: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index over the next 3 months.

TRADING SELL: The stock's total return is expected to be below a relevant benchmark's total return by 5% or more over the next 3 months.

TRADING SELL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index over the next 3 months.

* This framework only applies to stocks listed on the Singapore Stock Exchange, Bursa Malaysia, Stock Exchange of Thailand and Jakarta Stock Exchange. Occasionally, it is permitted for the total expected returns to be temporarily outside the prescribed ranges due to extreme market volatility or other justifiable company or industry-specific reasons.

CIMB-GK Research Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No. 198701620M)

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RECOMMENDATION FRAMEWORK #2 **

STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS OUTPERFORM: Expected positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months.

OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, has a high number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of +15% or better over the next 12 months.

NEUTRAL: Expected total returns of between -15% and +15% over the next 12 months.

NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, has either (i) an equal number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of +15% (or better) or -15% (or worse), or (ii) stocks that are predominantly expected to have total returns that will range from +15% to -15%; both over the next 12 months.

UNDERPERFORM: Expected negative total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months.

UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, has a high number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of -15% or worse over the next 12 months.

TRADING BUY: Expected positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 3 months.

TRADING BUY: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, has a high number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of +15% or better over the next 3 months.

TRADING SELL: Expected negative total returns of 15% or more over the next 3 months.

TRADING SELL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, has a high number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of -15% or worse over the next 3 months.

** This framework only applies to stocks listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and China listings on the Singapore Stock Exchange. Occasionally, it is permitted for the total expected returns to be temporarily outside the prescribed ranges due to extreme market volatility or other justifiable company or industry-specific reasons.