2008- 2009 BudgetSaddleback Valley Unified School

District

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Hitting a Moving Target...

• Economy

• State Budget not yet settled - most betting on August

• May Revise as basis - hope for better

• Estimating enrollment

• What’s next

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Economy

• Recession or not? Watch these indicators:

• Unemployment, Housing, Auto Sales, Durable Goods, Business Equipment and Business office/factories

• So far Unemployment is 4.5% annually

• Expect slow return Statewide but OC Mortgage Industry will not return

• No tax windfalls on the horizon

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State Budget Status

• Conference Committee meeting but has made little progress

• Did agree to delay some payments to assist State cash flow

• Education issues put at end of agenda

• “Big 5” has met but no action

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May Revise...is this the best we will see?

• Proposals to give Education more $$$

• Where it will come from - lottery, higher taxes, cuts in State services?

• Hardened stances make settlement difficult-- not feeling pressure yet

• Latest State Budget was 8/31/2002

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Our “May Revise” Budget

• Includes:

• No COLA in State funding; 6.5% reduction in Categorical funding

• Reductions totaling $11.7 million

• Health costs up 8.8%;+$1,141 employee

• Transfer of $3 million of Categorical program reserves to Unrestricted 6

Flexibility - to be or not to be?

• proposed by Governor in May Revise

• between categoricals

• from categoricals to unrestricted

• not included in Democratic budget proposals

• not from Federal funds or Cafeteria

Flexibility...

• not from Spec. Ed., EIA or Textbooks

• based on amounts leftover - June 30, 2008

• our transfer plans are not specific due to lack of clear State guidelines - we just know it will be $3 million

Unknowns and Risk Areas

• Enrollment - has the trend basis has changed?

• Rising Payroll costs - costs exceed norm

• Rising Health costs

• State economy impacts to future budgets

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Enrollment Planning

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Enrollment vs Average Daily Attendance (a.d.a.)

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Next Steps• Monitor the State Budget process

• Close out 2007-08 and prepare “unaudited actuals”

• Prepare for Revised Final Budget in September

• If State Budget is later than August, then make revisions to Revised Final Budget in October

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