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Planning for Hawai‘i’s FutureSecond Decade, 2010–2020
Office of the Executive Vice President for Academic Affairs/ProvostJuly 2012
Purpose of Second Decade Project, 2007
• To identify the higher education needs of the State of Hawai‘i in the next decade
• To determine the relative priority of state higher education needs by region of the state
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UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I 2ND DECADE
Second Decade Revisited, 2012
• To check our projections relative to 2010 Census data
• To review our outcomes and measures and revise as needed
• To measure our progress on performance indicators
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A System of Campuses
• Geographicallyaccessible entry points
• Flexibility for students to move within a system
• Cohesive response to state needs
• Coordinated leadership for resource acquisition and allocation
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State of Hawai‘i by Geographic Region
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Kaua‘i
Maui
West Hawai‘i
East Hawai‘i
Wai‘anae
WindwardNorth Shore
‘Ewa
East O‘ahu
CentralO‘ahu
Planning Context, 2007 Analysis
• Population growth (# & %)• High school graduation rates• Per capita income• Workforce participation• Educational attainment (<HS, HS, bach)• College going rate (2-yr, 4-yr)• Workforce shortages
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Relative Need for Postsecondary Ed & Training, 2007 Analysis
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Factors East Cent ‘Ewa Wai N Sh Win E HI W HI Mau Kau
Pop Growth (#) High Med VeryHigh Low Low Low Med Med High Med
Pop Growth (%) Low Low VeryHigh Low Low Low Med High Med Med
Proj HS Grad (%) Med Med VeryHigh High Low Low Med High Med Low
Income Low Med High VeryHigh
VeryHigh Med Very
High Med Med High
Wrkfrc Particip % High High Med High VeryHigh High High Low Low Med
Ed Attain (<HS) Low Med Med High Low Low High VeryHigh High High
Ed Attain (HS) Low Low Med VeryHigh High Med Med Med Med Med
Ed Attain (Bach) Low Low Med VeryHigh High Low Med Med Med Med
Going Rates (2-Yr) High Low Med VeryHigh Med Med Med Very
High High Low
Going Rates (4-Yr) Low Med VeryHigh
VeryHigh
VeryHigh High Low High Very
High High
Skilled Wrkfrc Needs VeryHigh
VeryHigh
VeryHigh
VeryHigh
VeryHigh
VeryHigh
VeryHigh
VeryHigh
VeryHigh
VeryHigh
RELATIVE NEED 31 31 55 59 45 31 43 49 45 39
Relative Need for Postsecondary Ed & Training, 2007 Analysis
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Palamanui
Wai‘anae Education Center
Updated Planning DataState Population
Total Population, 2010
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11Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Census 2010
>200,000175,000–200,000100,000–174,999<100,000
Kaua‘i
Honolulu
Maui
Hawai‘i
State of Hawai‘i = 1,360,301
67,09158,936
48,519
181,448
180,716
351,692
131,896
154,924
78,707106,372
Relative Need forPostsecondary Ed & Training
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FACTOR #1
Statewide:+148,764
Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Census 2000 and 2010
Relative Need forPostsecondary Ed & Training
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FACTOR #2
Statewide:+12.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Census 2000 and 2010
Change in Hawai‘i Populationby Age Group, 2000–2010
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14Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Census 2000 and 2010
Projected Change in Population,2010–2020
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15Source: DBED&T
Projected Population Growth, Age 65+,State & County, 2010–2020
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16Source: DBED&T: Population and Economic Projections for the State of Hawai‘i to 2040, March 2012
Projected Hawai‘i High School Graduates,2011–12 Through 2021–22
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77% 77% 77% 77% 77% 77% 77%76% 76% 76%
75%
23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23%24%24% 24%25%
Source: “Knocking at the College Door, Projections of High School Graduates by State and Race/Ethnicity, 1992 to 2022,” March 2008, WICHE.
Relative Need forPostsecondary Ed & Training
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FACTOR #3
Statewide:119,658
Source: OEVPAA/P; internal forecast model; Hawai‘i DOE for public school enrollment data.
Projected Hawai‘i Public High School Graduates, 2011–2022
Updated Planning DataPer Capita Income &
Workforce Participation
Hawai‘i’s Per Capita Personal Income as a Percent of U.S. Average, 1960–2010
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Current
PCPI AdjustedHI=125%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2006-10 Estimates, 5-Year average. Historical data: Table S3.
Relative Need forPostsecondary Ed & Training
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FACTOR #4
Statewide:$28,882
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2006-10 Estimates, 5-Year estimates.
Per Capita Personal Income, 2010 Inflation Adjusted Dollars
Relative Need forPostsecondary Ed & Training
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FACTOR #5
Statewide:66.8%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2006-10 5-Year Estimates
Updated Planning DataEducational Attainment
Relative Need forPostsecondary Ed & Training
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FACTOR #6
Statewide:9.0%
Population Age 18–24 with <HS Diploma
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2006-10 5-Year Estimates
Relative Need forPostsecondary Ed & Training
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FACTOR #7
Statewide:29.4%
Population Age 18–64 with Only a HS Diploma
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2006-10 5-Year Estimates
Going Rates of Public and Private High Schools,UH System
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Note: The UH system going rate is the percentage of Hawai‘i high school graduates entering the University of Hawai‘i without delay upon graduation from high school.
Sources: IRAO (UH); NCES IPEDS (state); NCHEMS (national).
UH System Going RatesFall 2011 = 38.4%
Going Rates of Public and Private High Schools,UH System and State of Hawai‘i
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UH System Going RatesFall 2011 = 38.4%
Total Hawai‘i Going Rates
Note: The UH system going rate is the percentage of Hawai‘i high school graduates entering the University of Hawai‘i without delay upon graduation from high school.
Sources: IRAO (UH); NCES IPEDS (state); NCHEMS (national).
Going Rates of Public and Private High Schools,UH System, State of Hawai‘i, and the Nation
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UH System Going RatesFall 2011 = 38.4%
Total Hawai‘i Going Rates
National Going Rates
Note: The UH system going rate is the percentage of Hawai‘i high school graduates entering the University of Hawai‘i without delay upon graduation from high school.
Sources: IRAO (UH); NCES IPEDS (state); NCHEMS (national).
Relative Need forPostsecondary Ed & Training
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FACTOR #9
Statewide:25.6%
Source: UH IRAO
UH 2-Year Going Rates, Fall 2011
Relative Need forPostsecondary Ed & Training
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FACTOR #10
Statewide:12.8%
UH 4-Year Going Rates, Fall 2011
Source: UH IRAO
Average Annual Net Migration of 22 to 64 Year Olds by Education Level (2008–10)
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31Source: NCHEMS / U.S. Census Bureau, 2008-10 American Community Surveys (Public Use Microdata Samples)
Updated Planning DataWorkforce Shortages
Projected Job Openings, 2008–18
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Note: Average annual UG degrees & certificates include certificates (1yr+, associate, & bachelor’s degrees.Source: Job Openings: Georgetown University Center of Education and Workforce,
Help Wanted: Projections of Jobs and Education Requirements through 2018, June 2010Degrees: NCES College Navigator, IPEDS, and IRAO.
Non-UH(14%)
UH(32%)
9,628(47%)
Hawai‘i: Emerging Opportunities
Enterprise Honolulu Projections:• Life Science / Biotechnology• Information Technology• Telecommunications• Film & Digital Media• Diversified Agriculture
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Hawai‘i’s Demand Occupations
Occupation Annual OpeningsBachelor’s degree or higher
Elementary school teachersGeneral / operations managersSecondary school teachersAccountants / auditorsProperty / real estate / community association managersNetwork systems / data communications analysts
330300300170110
90
Associate degree or higherRegistered Nurses 330
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35Note: Annual openings as of 2008Source: Research and Statistics Office, Department of Labor and Industrial Relations, February 2012
Projected Annual Vacancies in Shortage Areas Statewide, 2006–17 and Total UH Output, 2007–11
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Summary of Planning Factors
• Population growth (# and %)• High school graduates• Per capita income• Workforce participation• Educational attainment (<HS, HS,
bachelor’s)• College going rate (2-yr, 4-yr)• Workforce shortages
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Relative Need forPostsecondary Ed & Training
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Factors East Cent ‘Ewa Wai N Sh Win E HI W HI Mau Kau
Pop Growth (#) High Med VeryHigh Med Low Low High High Very
High Med
Pop Growth (%) Low Low VeryHigh Med Low Low High Very
High High Med
Proj HS Grad (#) VeryHigh
VeryHigh High Low Low Med Med Low High Low
Per Capita Income Low Med High VeryHigh
VeryHigh Low Very
High Low Med High
Wrkfrc Particip % High Med Low High Med Med High Low Low Med
Ed Attain (<HS) Med Med Med High Low Med High VeryHigh High High
Ed Attain (HS) Low Low Med VeryHigh High Med Med High High High
Ed Attain (Bach) Low Low Med VeryHigh High Low Med Med Med Med
Going Rates (2-Yr) High Low Med High Med Med Low VeryHigh Low Low
Going Rates (4-Yr) Low Low High VeryHigh High Med Low Med High High
Skilled Wrkfrc Needs VeryHigh
VeryHigh
VeryHigh
VeryHigh
VeryHigh
VeryHigh
VeryHigh
VeryHigh
VeryHigh
VeryHigh
RELATIVE NEED 37 31 49 57 39 29 45 47 47 41
Relative Need forPostsecondary Ed & Training
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2007 Analysis 2012 Analysis
Hawai‘i Innovation Initiative
Hawai‘i Graduation Initiative
Renovate to Innovate
Public Higher Education Agenda
1. Increase the educational capital of the state
2. Address underserved regions/populations
3. Expand workforce development
4. Diversify the economy
5. Renew and expand infrastructure
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Hawai‘i Graduation Initiative
Hawai‘i Graduation Initiative
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“55% of Hawai‘i’s working age adults tohave a 2- or 4-year degree by 2025.”
“Increase graduates by 25% by 2015”President Greenwood
“Increase student participation and completion, particularly Native Hawaiians, low-income students,
and those from underserved regions”
Hawai‘i Graduation Initiative
Hawai‘i Graduation Initiative
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P-20 GOAL: INCREASE 2- OR 4-YEAR DEGREE ATTAINMENT OF WORKING AGE ADULTS (25 TO 64) TO 55% BY 2025
2025
Source: NCHEMS & U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-year estimates, 2006 to 2010
CumulativeDegree Gap:60,791 degree holders
Hawai‘i Graduation Initiative UH Degrees & Certificates of Achievement Earned
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UH Degrees & Certificates of Achievement Earned
GOAL: INCREASE 3–6% PER YEAR
UH Degrees & Certificates of Achievement Earned
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Increase Student Completion Addressing Need Via Distance Education
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14.2% 5.6% 9.7% 9.1% 10.4%
12.1% 13.3%
Addressing Need ViaDistance Education
Source: IRAO Socad, Census
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Number of Technology-Assisted Distance/Distributed Learning Classes by Offering Campus
Source: IRAO Socad, Census
Addressing Need ViaDistance Education
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“To position the UH as one of the world’s foremost indigenous-serving
universities”
Hawai‘i Graduation Initiative
Hawai‘i Papa o Ke Ao
UH Degrees & Certificates of Achievement Earned
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Degree Attainment ofNative Hawaiians at UH
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Native Hawaiian Enrollment at UH
Hawai‘i Graduation Initiative
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Hawai‘i Graduation Initiative
“Increase student participation and completion, particularly Native Hawaiians,
low-income students, and those from underserved regions”
$44m of Institutional Aid Awarded in 2010–11
UH Degrees & Certificates of Achievement Earned
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UH Disbursement of Pell Grants
$mil
Number of recipients
Total Pell disbursed
Hawai‘i Graduation Initiative
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Increase Student Participation
Over 14,000 students from the Classes of 2013, 2014, and 2015 STEPPED UP
UH Degrees & Certificates of Achievement Earned
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Going Rates of Hawai‘i High Schoolsto the UH System
Hawai‘i Innovation Initiative
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“Contribute to the state’s economy and provide a solid
return on investment”
Hawai‘i Innovation Initiative
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UH Extramural Fund Support
• A vibrant economy• High-paying jobs• Clean, green
industries• An entrepreneurial
culture• Bring and keep our
keiki homeEVPAA Jul 2012
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Goal: Build a $Billion+ Research Industry in Hawai‘i
• Astronomy/space sciences
• Ocean, earth sciences
• Health sciences
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Strengthen Our Areas of Excellence
Enhance Emerging Strengths• Clean energy• New agriculture• Cancer research
Build Up New Areas• Advanced informatics and cyberinfrastructure• Health sciences, obesity, diabetes, etc…
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Hawai‘i Innovation Initiative
• Double our research initiative over next 5–8 years
• Attract more than 50 new world-class scientists
• Form crucial relationships among private sector, state, and international partners
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The Plan
• Approximately $10–12 million a year
• The ROI would be thousands of new jobs in the state, new discoveries, new supporting businesses and opportunities
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Investment / Return on Investment
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UH Patents, Disclosures, & LicensesGoal: Increase 5–15% Per Year
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“Address critical workforce shortages and prepare students for effective
engagement and leadership”
Two Initiatives That MustSucceed Together
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UH Degrees in STEM Fields
Renovate to Innovate
Triple Bottom Line• Create Hawai‘i construction jobs• Improve facilities to compete• Leverage funds to increase RTRF
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Renovate to Innovate
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Renew and Expand Infrastructure
Major Construction Projects, 2009 to Present $184.7mCancer Research Center $120.0m
Edmondson Renovation $15.3m
Biomedical Sciences Bldg. Court B renovation $1.5m
Bilger Complex Air Conditioning System Upgrades $5.7m
Institute for Astronomy, R/R HVAC Equipment $2.6m
Biomedical Sciences Building, R/R Cage Washing $2.9m
CTAHR Renovation $2.9m
Biomedical Sciences Building, R/R HVAC Equipment $5.3m
C-MORE $21.0m
Webster Hall $7.5m
Major Design Projects, 2009 to Present $126.0mCollege of Pharmacy (UH Hilo) $38.0m
Snyder Renovation $40.5m
Pacific Health Research Center $47.5m
Summary
• Data reinforce priorities
• Initiatives on target
• Initiatives reinforce each other
• Need to update & extend performance measures
• 2013–2015 Biennium Budget proposal needs to support initiatives
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Planning for Hawai‘i’s FutureSecond Decade, 2010–2020
Office of the Executive Vice President for Academic Affairs/ProvostJuly 2012
