2006 Commercial Space Transportation Forecast for Non-Geosynchronous Orbits

2006 CommercialSpace TransportationForecast for Non-GeosynchronousOrbits

John Sloan

Federal Aviation Administration

Office of Commercial Space Transportation

May 24, 2006

Federal AviationAdministration

2NGSO Commercial Space Transportation Forecast

May 24, 2006

Federal AviationAdministration 2

Introduction

Worldwide Commercial Launches

• 2006 forecast: poised for an increase in NGSO launch activity• NGSO forecast includes payloads open to internationally

competed launch services procurement and other commercially sponsored payloads– Payloads that generate launch demand – Typically no secondary or dummy payloads

• Market demand; not a prediction of actual launches

NGSO GSO Total1996 2 21 231997 13 24 371998 19 19 381999 18 18 362000 9 20 292001 4 12 162002 4 20 242003 4 13 172004 2 13 152005 3 15 182006 est. 13 18 31


May 24, 2006


Satellite Forecast

160 satellites 2006–2015; average of 16.0 per year 11% increase compared to last year 144 in 2005 forecast, 106 in 2004, 80 in 2003

2006–2015 by sector • 61% International Science/Other• 27% Telecommunications• 12% Commercial Remote Sensing

2006 Satellite Forecast

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Sat

elli

tes

Little LEO Telecom

Big LEO Telecom

Commercial Remote Sensing

International Science/Other


May 24, 2006


Launch Forecast

69 total launches 2006–2015 8% increase compared to last year 64 launches in 2005, 51 in 2004 and 2003, 63 in 2002

Average of 6.9 launches per year • 3.6 medium-heavy launch vehicles • 3.3 small launch vehicles2006–2015 by sector • Int’l Science/Other 48 launches • Remote Sensing 14 launches• Telecommunications

7 launches

2006 Launch Forecast

0

5

10

15

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

La

un

che

s

Small (<2,268 kg LEO)

Medium to Heavy (>2,268 kg LEO)


May 24, 2006


Reasons for Near-Term Pile Up

1) An increase in the number of governments, companies, and non-profit organizations interested in NGSO satellites

2) The availability of low-cost launch vehicles that can service the small satellite market

3) Financial and technical delays for various systems that have caused manifests to back up

4) A confluence of planned replacements of commercial remote sensing and telecommunications systems

• Demand will likely not match actual launches but will fly eventually• Forecast of 13 launches in 2006 and 14 in 2007• Many systems are new to the market

• Development delays- financial and technical

• Historical schedule slips • Only one commercial NGSO launch in 2006 as of May 24


May 24, 2006


Near-Term ManifestService Type 2006 2007 2008 2009Commercial Remote Radarsat 2 - Soyuz GeoEye 1 - Delta 2 WorldView 2 - TBA EROS C - STARTSensing EROS B - START 1 RapidEye (5) - Dnepr TanDEM X - TBA

TerraSAR X - Dnepr WorldView - Delta 2

International Science Kompsat 2 - Rockot GOCE - Rockot CASSIOPE - Falcon 9 Cryosat 2 - TBARazakSAT - Falcon 1 SMOS - RockotAGILE - PSLV THEOS - RockotLAPAN-TUBSAT - PSLVEgyptsat - DneprSaudisat 3 - DneprSaudiComsat 3-7 - DneprAKS 1-2 - DneprCorot - Soyuz 2

Telecommunications ORBCOMM (6) - TBA ORBCOMM (6) - TBA ORBCOMM (6) - TBAGlobalstar (4) - Soyuz ORBCOMM (6) - TBA ORBCOMM (6) - TBAGlobalstar (4) - TBA

Other Genesis Pathfinder 1 - Dnepr Galaxy - Dnepr Sirius Radio 4 - ProtonGenesis Pathfinder 2 - Dnepr Guardian 1 - Dnepr SAR Lupe 5 - CosmosSAR Lupe 1 - Cosmos SAR Lupe 3 - Cosmos Cosmo-Skymed 3 - TBASAR Lupe 2 - Cosmos SAR Lupe 4 - Cosmos Cosmo-Skymed 4 - TBACosmo-Skymed 1 - TBA Cosmo-Skymed 2 - TBA

Total Payloads 22 29 18 15Total Launches 13 14 8 5

Note: Chart includes only those payloads announced as of April 28, 2006.It does not include secondary payloads that do not generate launch demand.

TBA – To Be Announced


May 24, 2006


Satellite and Launch Forecast 2006–2015

• More satellites and launches in near term • Most of the 2006 forecast increase is from International Science/Other • Visibility into the market fades four years ahead• Historical averaging used for International Scientific

• Number of medium-to-heavy launches increased by one launch per year over last year’s forecast (+2,268 kg to LEO for medium-heavy class)• Used for more remote sensing and international science/other missions

• Ratio of satellites to launch vehicles is 2.3 to 1

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 TOTAL Avg

SatellitesBig LEO 0 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 0.8Little LEO 5 6 12 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 35 3.5International Scientific/Other 19 8 12 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 97 9.7Commercial Remote Sensing 3 7 1 2 0 0 1 3 2 1 20 2.0Total Satellites 27 29 25 23 9 8 9 11 10 9 160 16.0

Launch DemandMedium-to-Heavy Vehicles 8 8 5 3 2 1 2 2 3 2 36 3.6Small Vehicles 5 6 5 5 2 2 2 2 2 2 33 3.3Total Launches 13 14 10 8 4 3 4 4 5 4 69 6.9


May 24, 2006


Near-Term Satellite Mass

• 14 more satellites under 200 kg compared to 2005 forecast• 5 more satellites over 1,200 kg compared to 2005 forecast

2006 2007 2008 2009 Total Percent of Total

< 200 kg(< 441 lbm)

10 11 12 12 45 54%

200-600 kg(441-1323 lbm)

3 9 1 1 14 17%

600-1200 kg(1323-2646 lbm)

5 5 1 2 13 15%

> 1200 kg(> 2646 lbm)

4 4 4 0 12 14%

Total 22 29 18 15 84 100%


May 24, 2006


Trends in NGSO Forecast• More “Other” satellites

• 5 SAR-Lupe radar satellites for the German Defense Ministry• 4 demonstration launches for Bigelow inflatable space habitat

• Several systems making progress to enter future forecasts • Globalstar

• Issued contract for design studies for next generation system in 2006• Two launches coming up (previously built spares)

• Iridium• Studying a new system this year• Replacement plan with launches of ~1 or 2 per year over period ~10

years• Could award satellite manufacturing contracts in 2008 or 2009

• Satellite Radio for Europe could be in NGSO• Question of when, not if

• Orbital commercial human space flight too early to forecast• America’s Space Prize• NASA COTS program for International Space Station resupply/return

• Demonstration missions may be uncrewed


May 24, 2006


Before Hurricane Katrina

Source: Iridium Satellite

Iridium Voice Traffic in the U.S. Gulf Region August 19, 2005


May 24, 2006


After Hurricane Katrina

Source:Iridium Satellite

Iridium Voice Traffic in the U.S. Gulf Region September 2, 2005

Iridium traffic increased 3,000 percent

Globalstar and Iridium activatedabout 20,000 satellite phonesinto region


May 24, 2006


Historical and Forecast Launch Comparison

0

5

10

15

20

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Lau

nch

es

2001 forecast

2002 forecast

2003 forecast

2004 forecast

2005 forecast

Actual

2006 Projections


May 24, 2006


Available onthe FAA/ASTwebsitehttp://ast.faa.gov

Documents

2006 Commercial Space Transportation Forecast for Non-Geosynchronous Orbits