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2006-07 Regional Modeling Center Workplan
Fire/Carbon/Dust Workshop
May 24, 2006
Regional Modeling Center activities• RMC Team is UC Riverside, ENVIRON, and University of North
Carolina
• Same team 2001-present
• Activities:– Meteorological modeling & analysis
– Emissions modeling & analysis for all pollutants – special projects for ammonia, fire, and windblown dust emissions
– CMAQ and CAMx with PSAT gridded photochemical air quality/visibility modeling for Inter-RPO modeling domain and all Class I areas in contiguous U.S.
– BART CalPuff support (modeling protocol, MM5 inputs, & CalMet/CalPuff modeling
– Technology and data transfer activities for state/tribal/FLM/local agencies and research community
• Present team funded through early 2007 – modeling support needed in the future
• http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/
Planned Regional Modeling Runs – May to September 2006Regional Modeling Scenario Name
Purpose Target Completion Date
Clean02a Evaluate contribution of natural emissions to modeled visibility/air quality May 2006
Base02b Evaluate model performance, uses actual 2002 emissions May 2006
Plan02b Final 2000-04 baseline period modeling run May 2006
Plan02b source apportionment
Identify contributions of states’ source categories to 2000-04 haze at each Class I area, using actual 2002 emissions for all categories except fire, which uses 2000-04 “typical, average” emissions
July 2006
Base18b Final 2018 base case projection modeling run May 2006
Base18b source apportionment
Identify contributions of states’ source categories to 2018 haze at each Class I area, using emissions projected for growth, control, and rules on the books
July 2006
Sensitivity18a, 18b Road dust “zero-out” and 2018 off-shore marine emissions sensitivity runs July 2006
PMBART18 Zero-out run for PM emissions from BART sources using regional model July 2006
VOCBART18 Zero-out run for VOC emissions from BART sources using regional model July 2006
Sensitivity18b Test suites of emissions reductions under consideration by WRAP region states Early Fall 2006
Additional runs Fall 2006 and Winter 2006/07 to be determined
WRAP Region BART Analysis Summary
Step A – BART Culpability Analysis (0.5 deciview threshold for 2002
actual maximum emissions rate*)
Step B – BART Engineering Analysis**
Step C – 2018 Visibility Benefit Analysis for estimated emissions reduction from
BART application
AK WRAP RMC Alaska DEC WRAP RMC
AZ WRAP RMC Arizona DEQ WRAP RMC
CA All by California ARB
CO All by Colorado DPH&E: http://apcd.state.co.us/documents/techdocs.html
ID Idaho DEQ issued RFP with OR and WA to do steps A & C with 12km MM5 met data - ID to do step B
MT All by Montana DEQ, using WRAP RMC-prepared 36km met data
NV WRAP RMC Nevada DEP WRAP RMC
NM WRAP RMC New Mexico ED WRAP RMC
ND All by North Dakota Department of Health
OR Part of ID RFP with WA to do steps A and C - see ID note above - OR to do step B
SD WRAP RMCSouth Dakota DENR - 2 eligible
sources, 1 is PM onlyWRAP RMC
UT WRAP RMC Utah DEQ WRAP RMC
WA Part of ID RFP with OR to do steps A and C - see ID note above - WA to handle B? - WA and Region X are working together
WY All by Wyoming DEQ, using a contractor at 12 km or 4 km MM5 met data - 18 eligible sources
Tribal All federal sources as far as is known, so these are up to their respective Regional Offices
*- data to be provided by permitting agency
** - may be based on separate contract support funded by Stationary Sources Joint Forum
CalPuff BART Modeling Activities
CalPuff Modeling Activities: – see May 5 draft protocol at: http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/bart.shtml, also Appendix B of 2006 Modeling Plan, below
Target Completion Date
Extraction of MM5 met data for specified regions May-June 2006
Preparation of CalMet data inputs to CalPuff model June 2006
Completed emissions parameter worksheets from states for BART-eligible sources June 2006
CalPuff modeling activities to give results for determining “subject-to-BART” status July-August 2006
Spreadsheet of results for each state’s interpretation of sources “subject-to-BART” August 2006
Results of engineering studies from states on emissions reductions on BART controls September-December 2006?
CalPuff modeling activities to give results of applying BART controls at each source Subsequent to engineering studies
Final report on RMC CalPuff modeling activities as part of final RMC project report Spring 2007
Source Apportionment Modeling• RMC White Paper on PM Source Apportionment http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm
/308/reports/PSAT_White_Paper_111405_final_draft1.pdf• Modeling Plan for using CAMx with PSAT
Applies to 2 regional modeling runs:– planning02b case – represents emissions during 2000-04 regional haze
baseline period – see specifications sheet– base18b case – represents emissions forecasts to 2018 accounting for growth
and control programs on the books through 2004, includes corrections from base18a run – see specifications sheet
Tracers:– PSAT tracers for sulfur (SOx) and nitrogen (NOx) families– Families:
• Sulfur – 2 tracers [SO2i Primary SO2 emissions; and PS4i Particulate sulfate ion from primary emissions plus secondarily formed sulfate]
• Nitrogen – 7 tracers [RGNi Reactive gaseous nitrogen including primary NOx (NO + NO2) emissions plus nitrate radical (NO3), nitrous acid (HONO) and dinitrogen pentoxide (N2O5); TPNi Gaseous peroxyl acetyl nitrate (PAN) plus peroxyl nitric acid (PNA); NTRi Organic nitrates (RNO3); HN3i Gaseous nitric acid (HNO3); PN3i
Particulate nitrate ion from primary emissions plus secondarily formed nitrate; NH3i Gaseous ammonia (NH3); and PN4i Particulate ammonium (NH4)
Source Apportionment Modeling, cont.Source Areas:– Each WRAP state– Pacific Off-shore Region– The group of CENRAP states– Remaining contiguous US East, including Gulf of Mexico– Mexico– Canada
6 Emissions Categories:– Point (including stationary offshore, all inland point sources + Pacific
point)• Point sources checked for assignment to correct state
– Anthropogenic Fires (WRAP agricultural fires and anthropogenic prescribed fires)
– Total mobile (on-road, off-road, including planes, trains, ships in/near port, off-shore shipping)
– Natural emissions (natural fire - WRAP region wild fires, non-federal rangeland, natural prescribed fires, and wildland fire use only, biogenics)
– Elevated fire sources in other RPOs (VISTAS, CENRAP, and Canada fires)
– Everything else (area, all dust, fugitive ammonia, non-elevated fire sources in other RPOs)