©2005 Mary O’Hara-Devereaux all rights reserved TM Eight Global Trends Shaping Your Future Human Resources Planning Society February

©2005 Mary O’Hara-Devereaux all rights reserved

TM

www.global-foresight.org

Eight Global Trends Shaping Your Future

Human Resources Planning SocietyFebruary 06, 2007

New Jersey

Mary O’Hara-Devereaux, Ph.D

Navigating the Badlands:Thriving in Turbulent Times

All rights reserved. www.global-foresight.org©2005 Mary O’Hara-Devereaux/Global Foresight

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The future is already here, it is just not evenly

distributed.


distributed.


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The Badlands: Transition Zone Between Eras

19501950

20002000

20252025

Historical cycle of disruptive innovation – 75 years long

You Are Here

Great Industrial Plains

BADLANDSBADLANDS

New Technologies

Economic Shifts

Social Innovations

New Identity

Foothills of the Future

Foothills of the Future


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Beware of conventional

wisdom for it is nearly

always wrong

Beware of conventional

wisdom for it is nearly

always wrong


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Conventional Wisdom

Confucian cultures can’t innovate only imitate Jobs always come back after a recession Women are not genetically as good at science and

technology Higher education guarantees a good job United States is a safe haven for other countries

money for the foreseeable future.


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Eight Trends Shaping the Future

Eight Trends Shaping the Future


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#1-Trend

Rapidly increasing numbers of healthy

older people

Rapidly increasing numbers of healthy

older people


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World Population Aged 60 and Over1950–2050

Source: United Nations Population Division, The Sex and Age Distribution of the World Populations (the 1994 revision).


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0 10 20 30 40 50

Men

Professional and managerial

Intermediate

Routine and manual

Women

Professional and managerial

Intermediate

Routine and manual

Activity Limited by Long-Standing IllnessBy Age, Sex and Occupational Class, %

Staying Healthy Longer

50-59 years

60-74 years

75 years and over


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The Second Middle Age:

Global Boomers Lead the Journey of Their Lifetime


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Transition Generation 2005

Key words: • Cycling• Renewal• Chapters• Transitions

• Learning• Vital aging• Inside-out

Childhood

1020

3040

Early Adulthood

5060

70

2nd Middle Age Elderhood

Staking out adult world

80

90100

1st Middle Age

Adulthood

Making it

Individuation

Interdependent

Begin again – new identity, new careers

Create a legacy

Begin again – mentors/full life

Mid-lifecrisis

*


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Future View 2025

Key words: • Self-managing continuous

• Change• Intimacy

• Balance• Creativity• Resilience

Childhood

1020

3040

Early Adulthood

5060

70

Middle Age Elderhood Centenarians

80

90100

Adulthood

First Half Second Half

Mid-lifecrisis

*


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#1 Strategic Imperative

Think and Act Differently About So-

Called Older Workers

Think and Act Differently About So-

Called Older Workers


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Implications for Human Resource Leaders

Lots of ‘so-called’ older workers- Boomers set new hybrid retirement patterns Big drivers of new work arrangements

between workers and employers impacting all generations

‘Second Middle Age’ women will pursue new careers and experiment with new roles

Older women workers will become preferred workers in the long term future


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#2 Trend

Re-invention of womanhood.

Re-invention of womanhood.


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#2

Women Break FreeAnd Cut a New Path


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First Women Went to Work….

Source: Public Policy Institute of California, Just the Facts – Economic Status of Women in California, 2004

Trends in U.S.Women’s Labor Force Participation, Ages 25-59, 1969-2003


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…Then they went to school. Today, More Women Graduate from

College than Men

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

AustraliaCzech Republic

FinlandFrance

GermanyHungary

IrelandItaly

JapanRepublic of Korea

MexicoNetherlands

New ZealandPoland

SpainSwedenTurkey

United KingdomUnited States

Women

Men

Tertiary Graduation Rates, 2005


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A Big U.S Trend Unfolding Since 1970…

56% of college students are women 50% of Latinos and African American

College students are women About 80% of valedictorians are

females Women poised to outperform men in

graduate education What’s up with men?


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The Education Gap Between Women and Men Continues to Grow

Source: www.nces.ed.gov

1990-91 through 2015-16- Bachelor’s Degrees, by Sex of Recipient


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Gap Grows at Master’s Level

Source: www.nces.ed.gov

1990-91 through 2015-16-Master’s Degrees, by Sex of Recipient


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Women Lead Innovations in Top 10 U.S Companies

Amy RadinChief Innovation OfficerCitibank

Amy RadinChief Innovation OfficerCitibank

Claudia KotchkaVP, Design Innovation & Strategy

Procter & Gamble

Claudia KotchkaVP, Design Innovation & Strategy

Procter & Gamble

Ivy RossEVP Product Design & DevelopmentOld Navy

Ivy RossEVP Product Design & DevelopmentOld Navy

Marissa MayerVP, Search Products & User Experience

Google

Marissa MayerVP, Search Products & User Experience

Google


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Today 50% of Women Over 50 years of age in

California are single.


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..This drove a decrease in traditional households

Source: Global Foresight statistical abstracts of France, Germany, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

$0.0

$10.0

$20.0

$30.0

$40.0

$50.0

United States Other North Atlantic

Percentage of Total Households That Include a Married Couple With Children

198020002010


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Women’s New Choices areTransforming Everyone’s Life

A global trend & social revolution Women are choosing new lifestyles all along

the lifecycle Marriage is being challenged Alternative households increasing in share One-person households rising Broader acceptance of varying lifestyles Household boundaries are extended through

technology and become communication zones and refueling stations

Source: Institute for the Future


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The Science is in….Biological Differences Between Men and Women’s Brains

What stimulates them and what gives them pleasure are polar opposites

Women use 20,000 words a day Men 7,000

Women have an 8 lane freeway for processing emotion, men a country road

Men like to conquer and control things—and destroy them if they can’t…,

Women try to make things work with what they have


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One biological difference persists-Women continue to outlive men

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census. Population Projections of the United States by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin: 1995–2050. Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 1130. Washington, DC.

Centenarians in the United States-1995-2010,


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Forecast:The Future Is Female

Women will continue to live longer and healthier Create a stunning ‘Second Middle Age’ Rapid growth of experienced, educated women-

historic numbers-a global phenomena The majority of educated women will choose new

lifestyles; their choices re-define marriage, households and work

Women will make more purchasing decisions Most U.S. women over 50 will be single by 2030


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The Future is Female-cont. Women and men will have an increasing

education gap at the higher ed. Level Most new entrants to workforce will be

women and people of color in the U.S. Many more traditional male careers will

be dominated by women Second Middle Age women will become

preferred workers in the near future Growth of Women Owned Businesses

will rise dramatically


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Strategic Imperative #2

Learn About the New Identity of Women and its

Impacts

Learn About the New Identity of Women and its

Impacts


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Implications for Human Resources Leaders

Design women friendly workplaces and organizations at all levels through to the boardroom or watch them leave in droves

Enlightened companies will have a strong women oriented succession plans

Create evidenced based strategies to attract young women as employees and workers

Learn about women owned businesses and their cultures-many of your suppliers and customers will be women owned companies


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#3 Trend

Rise of Toxic LeadersRise of Toxic Leaders


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Today’s Landscape of Fearful People and

Leaders Badland’s uncertainty and challenges

are deeply unsettling to people Revert to primary identities

•Religion

•Family

•Culture


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Toxic Leaders Rise to Power

Increase in the Badlands Lead by illusion not vision The Allure-promise of safety- “stick with me”—I will take care

of you Leave us worse off than before Mismatched to the issues and needs Fearful people collude with toxic leaders to keep them in place


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Forecast # 3-More Toxic Leaders

We’re not done yet… Uncertain when the new leaders will

emerge and prevailWHO WILL THEY BE?

Likely sources are women and Gen Y It has to be a hero’s journey


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#3-Strategic Imperative

Invest in Finding and Growing the New

Leaders

Invest in Finding and Growing the New

Leaders


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Implications Human Resource Leaders

Use the turbulence as a crucible for honing the leadership edge

Innovate in leadership programs-create new leadership readiness for different people

Focus on women, young people and people of color that unleashes their courage and talent to rise to highest leadership positions

New leaders must be revolutionaries to overcome the power of ‘Toxic Leaders’


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#4 Trend

Rapid global growth of the ‘networked

economy’

Rapid global growth of the ‘networked

economy’


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4.9%

7.0%

8.6%

6.2%

11.0%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%

2001-2005

1990-1994

1981-1985

1973-1978

1953-1957

1948-1953

Productivity Creates Wealth Not Jobs

Source: CCSE – California County Projections 2005

0.6%Job Gains 51 Months After Recession Starts


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21.96%

14.92%

6.60%

0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00%

All US firms

Female-owned

Male-owned

Equally male-/female-owned

Publically held andother firms not

classifiable by gender

A Level Playing Field Drives Growth of SME’s


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Forecast # 3-Insatiable Innovation Imperative

Creative destruction means continuous innovation

An increase in job burn and job churn More ‘temporariness’ of organizations

and jobs-’velcro’ relationships Getting the right people over and over

and over again New forms of knowledge worker

organizing arises


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#4- Strategic Imperative

Design climates and contexts that support serial

innovation

Design climates and contexts that support serial

innovation


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Barriers to Innovation Remain High

Difficult to Get

Resources

(Percent Saying “Yes”)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Failure Not Well Accepted

Time for Informal

Conversations

Too Busy With Routine

Work

Access to Information

Source: Global Foresight, Innovation Study, 2005.


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Source: Global Foresight, Innovation Study, 2005.

Climates for Generating Disruptive Innovation Still Need Work

Generating Radical Ideas

My Organization Is Very Good At:(Percent Strongly Agree)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Getting Diverse

Input

Refining New Ideas

Funding Small

Experiments

Killing Losers Fast

Enough


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Skills to organize social movements People bond to each other not ideas-small ‘hot’

groups are critical-not teams Understand how social networks work for and against

innovation and interventions People don’t innovate when they are fearful and have

no trust Map and combat immune systems-innovation is

exquisitely sensitive to the environment-interventions that change context

Information overload is a barrier-email can thwart innovation

Skills to manage portfolios of experiments and emergent strategies


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#5 Trend

China Grows, and China Grows, and

China Slows….

China Grows, and China Grows, and

China Slows….


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Persistent Hot GrowthChina’s GDP, % Increase on a Year Earlier

Source: The Economist, 2005.

10.0

9.5

9.0

8.5

8.0

7.5

2003 2004 2005


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Movin’ up the value chain fast

Today-World’s manufacturing floor Tomorrow=Technology innovations-

Agricultural Biotech Chinese “new consumer” drives

innovation-world’s largest consumer market

Cross border M&A’s become common


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China Moves to #2 by 2020-

Source: BusinessWeek, Aug 22-29, 2005.

$0.0

$10.0

$20.0

$30.0

$40.0

$50.0

$60.0

2005 2015 2025 2050Estimated

Trillions of US Dollars

Real GDP

IndiaChinaUS


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Reshaping the Global Economy

Source: BusinessWeek, Aug 22-29, 2005.

Percentage of World Gross Domestic Product

2004 2025 Estimate 2050 Estimate

US28%

Europe34%

Japan12%

China4%

India2% US

27%

Europe25%

Japan7%

China15%

India5%

US26%

Europe15%

Japan4%

Other10%Other

20%Other21%

China28%

India17%


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#5 Strategic Imperative

Learn About ChinaLearn About China


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All companies will need to assess China’s impact on their business-1st, 2nd or 3rd order effects-

Making sense out of China becomes part of basic strategic planning.

China companies will enter the U.S. through acquisitions and will need to go up the learning curve

Outsourcing to China will increase-huge learning needs-very uneven education

What does this mean to us?


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#6 Trend

Increasing Demand for Advanced

Education Around the World

Increasing Demand for Advanced

Education Around the World


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Huge Demand for Higher Education:

Uneven Mismatched Global Capacity

Global education and training market: $2 trillion• U.S. market: $750 B

U.S. higher education market: $250 B • Students: 42 million (1990); 97 M mill

(2010)

U.S. online higher education market (2001):$4.5 B • U.S. online higher education market (2005): $11 B

U.S. corp. & government training market: $100 B

Global corp. & government learning market:$300B Source: ThinkEquity Partners, Eduventures.


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China Corners the Market on Knowledge Workers-

Source: OECD, Education at a Glance, 2003.

China

United States

India

Russia

United Kingdom

Poland

Germany

Turkey

South Korea

Brazil

Mexico

Japan

Rest of World

WORLD

# of Gen Ys With College Degrees in 2010

15,917,200

14,125,320

11,361,360

6,826,200

2,854,400

2,756,880

2,014,100

2,022,450

1,019,100

4,465,110

3,643,740

5,635,000

55,220,340

127,861,200

Total

41.0%

57.0%

36.0%

40.0%

57.0%

66.0%

52.0%

43.0%

49.0%

61.0%

52.0%

49.0%

29.9%

40.0%

%Female

6,526,052

8,051,432

4,090,090

2,730,480

1,627,008

1,819,541

1,047,332

869,654

499,359

2,723,717

1,894,745

2,761,150

16,503,921

51,144,480

# of Females


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Asia’s Booming Growth in Young Professionals

*Cumulative total number of university graduates with seven or fewer years of experience.Source: BusinessWeek, Aug 22-29, 2005.

China and India Are Racing Ahead of the US in Numbers of Young Professionals*

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Millions

= India = China= US

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Millions

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Thousands

Finance and Accounting Engineering Life Sciences


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Diverse Players-New Competitors

624 for-profit, degree-granting colleges and universities in the US.

In 2000, 70% of traditional institutions offered online courses.

2000 corporate universities. Nearly 300 institutions

granting IT certificatesto students all overthe world.

48% of all postsecondary enrollments in for-profitsector.

Global consortia expanding rapidly.

Brown University Futures Project 2003


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Think Fast and Out of the Box Think Fast and Out of the Box


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Churn and burn means more and diverse learning opportunities are desperately needed

Continuous learning becomes the norm Companies want it tied to strategic

needs and results-learners want it tied to their future usually in another company

More external relationships-outsourcing and alliance webs

Innovative models and arrangements


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#7 Trend

Activist consumers and customers accelerate the transformation of

value and supply chains

Activist consumers and customers accelerate the transformation of

value and supply chains


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Activist Customers Drive Innovation

and the Global Economy


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Activist Consumer 1+--year of college Middle income Globally distributed Make decisions using information

mediated with technology Gather, process, analyze and skillfully

use information Prefer information they find Are not very loyal


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First Power Shifted Toward the Consumer


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Then They Revolutionized the Supply Chain


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Now they want a ‘Corner Store’

21st Century Corner Store-hi tech, hi touch-spans virtual and physical world

Customized personalized relationships Information & Experience-both important Want to co-create the products and

experiences Expect you to be knowledgeable about how

they make money and to help them meet their customers needs

Decisions to join or stay in your value web often triggered by a small critical piece of information or part of experience


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Critical Understanding

Consumers are changing their identity-serial needs & little loyalty

So….How to identify end users unmet, unarticulated needs-place bets and be first to the market

You must understand the ‘S’ Curve


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Make Customer Learning Core to HR

Make Customer Learning Core to HR


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Most companies are not truly customer centric

Your consumers need to be engaged in a creative process

Globalization means engaging in true cultural learning not just tinkering at the edges

Consumer trends will be driven from multiple geographies-complexity


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The 8th Big Trend is….

Sustainability Grows in Importance

Sustainability Grows in Importance


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Environmental Problems are more visible

Global warming has peoples attention War and instability in the Middle East Environmental degradation in China and other

emerging economies is visible to multinationals who realize it is not in their best interests long run not to intervene.

Top governmental leaders-(G8 and others) believe there is a problem and it should be addressed

The media is persisting in reporting on it. China will invest around the 2008 Olympics The rapid growth of the emerging economies and

their rising demand for energy focuses attention


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Energy is expensive to produceMid-Term Generating Costs of New Power Plants$ per MWh

* Reflect prices in different markets and likely future price increases† Combined-cycle gas turbineSource: The Economist, 2005.

Gas† Coal Nuclear Wind

50

40

30

20

10

0

FuelOperation and maintenance

InvestmentHigh-low values*


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Large Scale Solutions Remain Elusive

No alternative energy that scales-likely nuclear power will become the major alternative

Biotech offers the promise of environmental repairs but is still not available

China is likely to become an environmental leader to support long term economic growth and quality of life—


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Global Consumers will vote with their wallets

Increasing number of ordinary consumers will only buy products and services from green companies.

Look for leadership out of Europe first. Women will drive focus on sustainability. T This coupled with business growing concern with

environmental issues will push this issue forward. Concern for personal environment and health

becomes a concern for all people People are smart about it-Rise of social

movements


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# 8-Strategic Imperative

Become Stewards of Sustainability

Become Stewards of Sustainability


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• New role for HR-Steward of Sustainability • What opportunities do you have to help your

companies innovate to be more sustainable?• Bone up on green data and accounting Lead the ethics and values and value

revolution Stewards of sustainability will become

preferred business partners and providers-this requires significant increase in resources

Laggards will not be attractive places to work


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The Final Challenge

Growing Wealth GapGrowing Wealth Gap


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Knowledge Economy Polarizes and MarginalizesKnowledge Economy Polarizes and Marginalizes


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You Need the Right Skills to Play

Read/write native language

English language competency

Understand math and science

Computer literacy

Facile with information Share/create

knowledge Business basics Group work skills Cross cultural

competency


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Parting Thoughts….Parting Thoughts….


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Never Mistake a Clear View for a Short

Distance

Never Mistake a Clear View for a Short

Distance


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Don’t Get LostIn Familiar Territory


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distributed.


distributed.

Documents

©2005 Mary O’Hara-Devereaux all rights reserved TM Eight Global Trends Shaping Your Future Human Resources Planning Society February