200 Risk Analysis - WIT Press · an example for global risk management Benno Pilardeaux Cozmc// o% G/oW Bremerhaven, Germany Abstract Processes of land degradation in drylands can

The UN convention to combat desertification

an example for global risk management

Benno Pilardeaux

Cozmc// o% G/oW

Bremerhaven, Germany

Abstract

Processes of land degradation in drylands can become a major risk through thenegative and sometimes unpredictable affects on freshwater availabilitybiodiversity, the regional climate systems, food security, and on people'slivelihood on the whole. In societies where the security of people's livelihoodlargely depends on subsistence agriculture, like in Africa and most parts of Asiaand Latin America, desertification and unexpected droughts can have disastrouseffects. Moreover, desertification is a threat to sustainable development. The firstpart, of the paper examines the major causes of desertification and its globalimportance. In the second part, the paper will discuss the key elements of the"UN Con-vention to Combat Desertification in Countries Experiencing SeriousDrought and/or Desertifi-cation, Particularly in Africa" - UNCCD ("desertificationconvention") and examine the extent to which the legally binding agreement canbe viewed as an example of global risk management.

The first global conferenceon desertification was held in 1977 by UNEP. Thenon-binding plan of action adopted at that time did not have a significantinfluence. In 1992, the UN Conference on Environment and Development(UNCED) recommended drawing up an international convention in order toaddress specific legally binding commitments to combat desertification. In 1996the convention entered into force and in 1997 the First Conference of the Parties(COP-1) was held in Rome.

Transactions on Ecology and the Environment vol 24, © 1998 WIT Press, www.witpress.com, ISSN 1743-3541

200 Risk Analysis

1 Introduction

Today more than 250 million people worldwide are affected bydesertification and about 1 billion are at risk (Williams und Balling,

1994). Desertification can undermine economic development and

much of the soil degradation is already irreversible. Desertification hasa negative impact on food production and increases the danger offamines. Drought, freshwater scarcity and the loss of fertile soils canresult in conflict over resource and hence cause political crises in theaffected countries. Desertification also creates considerable socialcosts since the unresolved problems of rural development aretransferred to the cities by rural-urban migration. According to WorldBank estimates, the economic losses due to desertification can reachup to 20% of the GNP of a country.

Desertification is a global problem. About 40% of the Earth is aridland and 70% of it is affected by drought. It is estimated that today upto 20 million knf or 15% of the Earth's surface are affected; an areaas big as the United States and Canada together. Other sourcesestimate about 10 million km^ as being affected (Table 1).Desertification still continues without any sign of slowing down orabating. In Central Asia, North-Western China, Northern Africa andin the Sahel the degree of expansion ranges between 0,5-0,7%. A rateof 0,5% is equal to an annual soil degradation of about 80.000 km̂(almost the size of Austria). If the soil degradation were to continue atthe same speed, almost all soils in arid and semi arid zones will bedegradated by the next century. Desertification destroys thevegetation, increases soil degradation, reduces the soil fertility andthreatens freshwater resources.


Risk Analysis 201

Table 1: Extent and severity of desertification, Area desertified in 10*

km ; % = Area desertified in percent of total drylands; drylands = aridJ- semi-arid + dry sub-humid.Region

AfricaAsia

Austral-asiaNorth

AmericaSouth

America

Total

Light

Area

1.1801.567

836

134

418

4.273

%

99132

8

8

Mod(

Area

1.2721.701

24

588

311

4.703

srate

%

10104

8

6

9

Str

Area

70743011

73

62

1.301

ong

%

5,03,00,2

0,1

1,2

2,5

Are

3554

0

0

75

a

000

0,

o/

,2,1

,1

0

0

1Source: IPCC (1996)

2 The meaning of desertification

There is no unique definition of the term desertification. However thenotion of desertification as the spread of deserts is wrong (Mensching1990). A desert represents a specific climate zone whereasdesertification is a process of destruction and of soil degradation whichoccurs in several climate zones. The AGENDA 21 definesdesertification as "land degradation in arid, semi arid and dry sub-humidareas resulting from various factors including climatic variations andhuman activities". Arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid are "drylands".Hence, desertification is soil degradation in drylands. It is a process inwhich fertile soils are losing their productivity. In the worst case, thearea concerned turns into a desert-like landscape with far reachingsocio-economic impacts.

2.1 Structural causes of desertification

Some evidence suggests that structural short-comings are moreresponsible for influencing desertification than individual action.Desertification is primarily an expression of structural socio-economictransformation. The traditional resource use systems in Africa forinstance, have been more and more destabilized in the second half ofthe 20th century due to far reaching changes in the socio-economicsystem in which they are embedded. The crucial mechanism is the


202 Risk Analysis

opening of more or less isolated subsistence economies to the outsideworld. The increasing export orientation of agriculture, the spread ofmonocultures, and the introduction of sometimes inappropriatetechnologies are some examples of important external factors of thetransformation process. Mass poverty, inadequate access to productiveresources, the neglection of rural development and population growthare examples for important internal factors. Altogether, unfavourablesocio-economic conditions have a major influence on soil degradation.

Since Farmers and pastoralists in the regions concerned are often thevictims of an economic downfall, they are forced to overuse theirnatural resources in the daily struggle for their survival.

2.2 Impact of climate change on desertification

There is no doubt that human impact is the major driving force ofdesertification. However, it is most likely that there will also be animpact of predicted climate change on desertification or thatdesertification will have an impact on climate change. The increase ofdroughts will increase the vulnerability of the soil to degradation andaccelerate the desertification process (IPCC, 1996). Arid, semi-aridand dry sub-humid zones always have been subject to strongfluctuations in climate. The second assessment report of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states that thereis little evidence for recent changes in drought frequency or intensityin arid and semi-arid zones (IPCC 1996:178). The IPCC concludes:"However there is little doubt that desertification is an importantglobal environmental problem that needs to be addressed urgently -and that climate change will have an impact on it" (ICPP 1996:181).According to the IPCC special report on the regional vulnerability toclimate change, Africa will be most vulnerable to climatic changes(IPCC 1998:9). Latest models suggest that a rise in global meantemperature between 1,5 and 4,5 °C will result in an increase of globalannual precipitation between 3 and 15% (IPCC, 1996). Increasingprecipitation will improve freshwater availability whereas an increasein temperature will have the opposite effect throughevapotranspiration. Even if there is a positive global net effect ofclimate change on water availability, the regional distribution ofprecipitation is uncertain. Changes in temperature, evapotranspirationand precipitation through global warming will be very different fromregion to region. There will be "winner" and "looser" regions (WBGU,

1997).


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3 Desertification as a global risk

Soil degradation in drylands is a global problem because of

• the global significance of the size of affected area

• the global significance of the amount of the affected population

• the direct interaction with climate change, absolute poverty, loss ofbiodiversity and other problems of global change

Besides, desertification is also an important global risk as it createsmany uncertainties. These risk characteristics include:

• the possible, self-reinforcing and unpredictable effects ofinteraction with other problems of global change (e.g. positivefeedback loops): What are the most dangerous interactions?

• the possible unexpected and sudden occurence of droughts: Whenthe next drought will occur?

• the possible irreversibility of the land degradation process: whendoes soil degradation reach the point of no return?

• the interaction between soil degradation and food production: whatis the global carrying capacity?

• an increasing vulnerability to desertification if coping capacities inthe societies concerned are undermined (e.g. by the socio-economicdeterioration in many African countries): Where is the criticalpoint?

These risks are reinforced by a generally low natural resilience ofdrylands to desertification and drought and by a low coping capacity ofmost developing countries. Most threatened by desertification andhence by a food crisis are vulnerable groups such as poor and oldpeople, children and subsistence farmers.

The drought disasters in the Sahel in the 70ies made clear that it wastime to act. The first global conference on desertification was held in1977 by UNEP. However, the non-binding plan of action adopted atthat time did not have a significant influence. It was in 1992, whenthe UN Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED)recommended drawing up an international convention with specificlegally binding commitments to combat desertification.


204 Risk Analysis

4 The Convention to Combat Desertification

The "UN Con-vention to Combat Desertification in Countries

Experiencing Serious Drought and/or Desertifi-cation, Particularly inAfrica" - CCD ("desertification convention") which has been signed byover 110 countries, entered into force in 1996 and in 1997 the FirstConference of the Parties (COP-1) was held in Rome:

"The objective of the convention is to combat desertification andmitigate the effects of drought in countries experiencing seriousdrought and/or desertification particularly in Africa, through effectiveaction at all levels, supported by international co-operation andpartnership arrangements, in the framework of an integrated approachwhich is consistent with Agenda 21, with a view to contributing to theachievement of sustainable development in affected areas" (UNCCD,

Article 2,1).

The convention is innovative because of its focus on participatorydevelopment and bottom-up approaches. Hence, action programmesto combat desertification should be to a large extent based on locallevel participation. An important result of the convention is the viewof desertification as a primarily socio-economic, and not a technicalproblem. The treaty also seeks to engage donor countries anddeveloping countries in a new partnership and to improve bi- andmultilateral development co-operation. The aim is to ensure thatfunding programmes are better co-ordinated and that they are based onthe needs of the countries and people affected.

Beside a wide range of activities, the convention provides a number ofmajor risk management tools such as action plans, financingmechanisms, the assessment of desertification research, theparticipation of the people affected, capacity building to improve theeffectiveness and efficiency of the respective activities and regularpolitical negotiations at the international level by the Conference of

the Parties (COP).

4.1 Risk management through National ActionProgrammes

The programs of the UNCCD will be implemented through NationalAction Programmes (NAPs). Donors and affected countries will co-ordinate their respective role in supporting these programmes. Local


Risk Analysis 205

communities will play a key role in this process. Because programmes

need to be adapted to particular regional circumstances, most of the

specific requirements are described in the four regionalimplementation annexes for Africa, Asia, Latin America and thenorthern Mediterranean. Article 10 obliges the states to implementlong-term action programmes. These plans specify the respectiveroles of governments, local communities and land users and theresources necessary and available for the task. Important elements are

• the integration of desertification policy into national policies onsustainable development

• particular attention on preventive measures and early warningsystems

• the provision of effective participation in policy-planning anddecision making

• promotion of alternative livelihoods for affected people

4.2 Risk management through research

The Commitee on Science and Technology (CST) advises theConference of the Parties to the Convention (COP) on scientific andtechnological matters concerning desertification and drought. TheCST identifies research priorities and promotes co-operation betweenresearchers. The assessment of the latest scientific knowledge is also atask of the CST. A current roster of almost 600 independent expertsnominated by the respective governments, serves as a pool ofscientific expertise.

Ad hoc panels of experts provide information and advice on specialmatters. The priority issue for COP-2 will be to include a role fortraditional knowledge in combatting desertification (Pilardeaux 1997).Using existing networks and institutions to support the UNCCDPursuant to Article 25 of the UNCCD, the CST is to make provisionfor undertaking a survey and evaluating the relevant existingnetworks, institutions, agencies and bodies that are willing to becomeunits of a network to support the implementation of the convention.This survey will be conducted in three phases under the guidance ofUNEP.

• Phase 1: Identification of the principal potential units, particularlynetworks (until COP-2);


206 Risk Analysis

• Phase 2: A pilot, in-depth survey evaluation of the potential unitsin a particular region and subregion;

• Phase 3: Replication of the pilot survey and evaluation of the units

in other regions and subregions.

4.2.1 Benchmarks and indicatorsThe work on benchmarks and indicators is an open-ended consultativeprocess focusing on two groups of indicators: Indicators to measurethe implementation of the convention and impact indicators.

4.2.1.1 Implementation indicatorsThe Intergovernmental Negotiation Committee developed at its 9thand 10th session a draft of 21 implementation indicators. The list ofimplementation indicators includes the sections "awareness-buildingand identification of national priorities", "formulation of NationalAction Plans" (NAPs) and "implementation of NAPs". The aim is todevelop a standard minimum set of indicators applicable worldwide,along with indicators suited to each region in order to take account ofspecific regional features. The result will be used by the CST to drawup directives for the parties and organizations concerned in the

implementation of the convention and to develop reporting systems.

4.2.1.2 Impact indicatorsImpact indicators will help the actors to assess the progress achievedin combatting desertification, review their own priorities and improvethe effectiveness and efficiency of their action. Indicators describingthe severity and the extent of desertification and its socio-economicimpacts could be used for the development of impact indicators. TheCST agreed that it is necessary to have a method of developing andtesting impact indicators that meet the specific requirements of theUNCCD. However, the evaluation and application of impactindicators in the countries concerned is lagging well behind thetheoretical and conceptual work having been done so far. There is stilla necessity to develop a methodology for determining impactindicators and there are only a few indicators which have been tested,calculated and applied. The CST recommended that a grassroot-levelapproach be followed, drawing on local knowledge, which may result inthe development of basic indicators that are understood and applied bylocal communities. Such indicators should be integrated at the regionaland national level at which major political decisions are taken. Thedevelopment of impact indicators must be closely aligned with on-going work within the Commission on Sustainable Development


Risk Analysis 207

(CSD). The CSD is currently testing indicators appropriate forreporting on the implementation of AGENDA 21 at national levels.

4.3 Risk management through participation

The convention emphasises a strong local participation in decisionmaking. A major goal is to put the local communities on an equalfooting with other actors in the development process. The local

communities will play a key role in formulating programmes. Theywill also be active in designing and carrying out the resulting projects.The goal is to develop a programme that is "owned" by the very

people who most depend on and understand land and society. For thefirst time in UN history an open dialogue session with NGOs withinthe official programme of work has been held at COP-1. The COP

agreed that additional open dialog sessions organized by NGOs will beheld at future COPs.

4.4 Risk management through capacity building

Governments are requested to adopt long-term policies encouraginggreater decentralization. Such long-term policies could for instanceinclude the implementation of reforms granting people greatersecurity of land tenure. Other important steps might be the creationof effective legal institutions for resolving conflicst over access towater, land or other resources, an energy policy that promotessustainable forest management or the substitution of fuelwood byalternative energy sources, and structural reforms in a country'seconomy that support poverty reduction.

4.5 Risk management through financial support of themost affected countries

A Global Mechanism (GM) helps to promote funding and channellingof financial resources. The GM will not raise or administer funds. Itwill assist other agencies to mobilize funds and to channel them wherethey are most needed. It will seek to promote greater co-ordinationamong existing sources, mainly the mulilateral and bilateraldevelopment assistance of the OECD and Regional DevelopmentBanks and the greater efficiency and effectiveness in the use of funds.However, the steadily decreasing financial contribution of OECDcountries to development assistance is a major problem. The GM willbe hosted by the International Fund for Agricultural Development


208 Risk Analysis

(IFAD). The GM can also use its own resources mobilized through aTrust Fund to which the parties can contribute voluntarily.

The UNCCD is not financed by the Global Environment Facility(GEF) like the sister conventions on climate and biodiversity.However, the GEF can allocate financial resources to combatdesertification in cases that desertification has an impact on climateor biodiversity or vice versa.

4.6 Risk management through regular reviews by the COP

The Conference of the Parties (COP) supports and assesses theimplementation of the Convention. One of the main function of theCOP is to review reports submitted by the Parties. The COP will makerecommendations to these reports and is authorized to makeamendments to the Convention or to launch negotiations for newannexes. The second COP will be held in 1998 in Dakar (Senegal).

Since interaction among global changes become increasinglyimportant it is crucial to promote co-ordinated measures, with for e.g.the Convention to Combat Desertification, the FrameworkConvention on Climate Change and the Convention on BiologicalDiversity.

5 Conclusion

The UNCCD approach is a good example for a global riskmanagement strategy and a valuable contribution to an internationalsustainable development policy. However, it is quite clear that thesuccess of the convention largely depends on the implementation ofthe agreed measures at the national and local levels, on an enablingenvironment in the countries concerned and on the vital participationof the affected population. The convention can only provide asuitable framework for a successful policy to combat desertification,but it is not a solution in itself.

There is also an increasing necessity for co-ordination with otherglobal conventions since many aspects are overlapping. Beside theserather structural factors, a successful implementation of the UNCCDdepends on the availability of the necessary financial resources. UNEPestimated that an effective global effort would cost between 10 and 22billion US$ per year. Main funding of the UNCCD is provided by the


Risk Analysis 209

affected countries themselves. The bi- and multilateral assistance ofOEDC countries is the most important external source of UNCCD

funding. However, the decreasing contribution of OECD countries todevelopment assistance from a share of 0,37% of GNP (1980) to

0,30% (1993) to 0,27% in 1995, imposes a major constraint to the

future of the UNCCD. The goal of sustainable development as calledfor at the Earth Summit in Rio in 1992 remains unattainable withoutthe necessary financial support of the industrialized countries.


210 Risk Analysis

References

[1] Interim Secretariat for the Convention to Combat Desertification:United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification in CountriesExperiencing Serious Drought and/or Desertification, Particularly in

Africa", Text with Annexes, Geneva 1997.

[2] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - IPCC: ClimateChange 1995 - Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigation of ClimateChange: Scientific-Technical Analyses. Cambridge University Press,

Melbourne 1996.

[3] IPCC: IPCC Special Report - The Regional Impacts of ClimateChange: An Assessment of Vulnerability, Cambridge University Press,

1998.

[4] Mensching, H. G.: Desertifikation: ein weltweites Problem derokologischen Verwustung in Trockengebieten der Erde.

Wissenschaftliche Buchgesellschaft, Darmstadt, 1990.

[5] Pilardeaux, B.: Desertifikationsbekampfting im Aufwind? - 1.Vertragsstaatenkonferenz der UNCCD, in: Nord-Sud Aktuell, 11.Jahrgang, Nr. 4, pp. 744-749, 1997.

[6] Wissenschaftlicher Beirat der Bundesregierung GlobaleUmweltveranderungen - WBGU: Welt im Wandel - Wege zu einemnachhaltigen Umgang mit Siifiwasser, Berlin, 1997.

[7] Williams, M. A. J. & R. C. Balling: Interactions of Desertificationand Climate, WMO und UNEP, Geneva, 1993.


Documents

200 Risk Analysis - WIT Press · an example for global risk management Benno Pilardeaux Cozmc// o% G/oW Bremerhaven, Germany Abstract Processes of land degradation in drylands can