01

The 1966 Forth Road Bridge cost £20 million

Inflated to the year 2016the bridge should cost under £400 million

So why was it price at over £4,200 million? d

The Forth Replacement Crossing (FRC) is to be completed in 2016

Not the longest Around 25th from the top

Not the widest deck Others have 6 and 8 lanes

Not the longest span Around 7th from the top

Not the highest Millau bridge is 4 times higher

Not the most towers Only 3 , the Millau has 7

Not the longest viaducts Many are MILES long

Not environmentally difficult No earthquakes/ tornados

Issue 5a 12/10/2009 omnie@tiscali.co.uk

First – a wee bit history

2

ONLY SEVENTEEN MSPs TURNED UP

15th January 2009 - Forth Replacement Crossing Debate –

Scotland’s biggest ever project.

4th April 2000 – Holyrood Building Debate –

A presentation was arranged prior to the debate

ONLY SIXTEEN MSPs TURNED UP

SECTION 1

World Bridge Graphs

3

FORTH REPLACEMENT CROSSINGThe MULTIMODAL option cost

£4.22 Billion

Cable Stayed Bridge

4

Towers

Stays

MULTIMODAL - Road & Tram

5

NOTE :

COSTSINFLATED TO

2016

6

COST of VARIOUS TYPES TYPES OF WORLD BRIDGES -£M

The FRC was the world’s most expensive bridge.

Skar

nsun

d (N

K)Bi

ll Em

erso

nZa

kim

Brid

geCl

ark

Brid

geVi

dyas

agar

Set

uVe

tera

n's G

lass

City

QEI

I THA

MES

Hard

ange

rM

illau

Viad

uct

Fort

h Br

idge

Orig

inal

Bob

Grah

amAr

thur

Rav

enel

Pana

ngRu

nyan

Hum

ber

Tata

raPo

nt d

e N

orm

andi

eRi

o- A

ntirr

ioSe

vern

Cro

ssin

gDo

ngha

i Va

sco

da G

ama

Hang

zou

Bay

Suto

ngAk

ashi

Kai

kyō

Ore

sund

Pro

ject

Fort

h

£-

£500

£1,000

£1,500

£2,000

£2,500

£3,000

£3,500

£4,000

£4,500

£36

£

84

£10

2 £

106

£13

6 £

146

£16

3 £

198

£31

9 £

357

£36

7 £

392

£49

7 £

498

£51

0 £

561

£56

7 £

576

£79

6 £

854

£94

1 £

1,08

1 £

1,08

1

£4,050

£4,109 £4,220

7Sk

arnsu

nd (NK)

Bill Em

erson

Zakim

Bridge

Clark B

ridge

Veteran

's Glas

s City

QEII TH

AMES

Millau Viad

uct

Bob Graham

Arthur R

aven

el

Panan

gTa

tara

Pont de N

ornman

die

Rio- Antirri

o

Seve

rn Cro

ssing

Vasco da G

ama

Sutong

Forth

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

36

84

102

106

146

163 31

9

367

392 49

7 561

567

576

796 94

1 1,08

1

4,220

FRC

COST of ONLY CABLE STAYED BRIDGES -£M

Again – the FRC isby far the most costly

08

Hangzo

u Bay

Runyan

Donghai

Vasco da G

ama

Oresund Pro

ject

Panan

g

Bob Graham

Sutong

Seve

rn Cro

ssing

Arthur R

aven

el

Akash

i Kaik

yō

Rio- Antirri

oFo

rth

Veteran

's Glas

s City

QEII TH

AMES

Millau Viad

uct

Humber

Pont de N

ornman

dieTa

tara

Clark B

ridge

Hardan

ger

Bill Em

erson

Skarn

sund (N

K)

Vidyasag

ar Se

tu

Zakim

Bridge

-

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

40.00

37.00

35.66

32.50

17.20

16.40

13.50

8.85

8.21

5.13

4.02

3.91

2.88

2.70 2.68

2.66

2.46

2.22 2.14

1.48 1.41

1.38

1.20

1.01

0.82

0.44 KmCOMPARATIVE LENGTH of WORLD BRIDGES

The FRC is tiny: a mere 25th in world ranking..

9

Tatar

a

Skarn

sund (N

K)

Panan

g

Bob Graham

Vasco da G

ama

Veteran

's Glas

s City

QEII TH

AMES

Bill Em

erson

Clark B

ridge

Seve

rn Cro

ssing

Arthur R

aven

el

Millau Viad

uct

Sutong

Rio- Antirri

o

Zakim

Bridge

Pont de N

ornman

dieFo

rth £-

£200

£400

£600

£800

£1,000

£1,200

£1,400

£1,600

£1,800

£5 £34 £35

£40 £53

£55 £59

£67 £72

£93 £94 £125

£132 £193 £226

£255

£1,563

FRC

COST OF BRIDGES PER METRE LENGTH -£100K

The average cost is under £200K per metre

The FRC was £1 ½ million pounds per metre

10

3.5.3 What They Typically CostThe typical cost of a cable stayed bridge ranges from $4,500 to $5,000 per Square metre

The FRC cost was $64,500 per square metre

011

1 Japan’s Pearl Bridge

2 Sweden/Denmark’s -Oresund Crossing

3 Scotland’s Multimodal FRC

The world has only had THREE £4 Billion crossings

012

The Pearl Bridge Japan Opened in 1998 for $4,300

The world’s longest suspension bridge -3,910 m

Earthquakes (8.5 Richter scale) –TMD pendulums

Tornadoes (180mph) – hinged-girder system

Fierce sea currents

Why is it so expensive

THE ORESUND CROSSING

13

The largest/longest Multimodal crossing ever built

SECTION 2

14

The Oresund Crossing

Forth Bridge

The Oresund ProjectThis Megastructure links Sweden & Denmark

Artificial Island

Road & RailTunnel

4050 metres

15

Road & RailBridge 7,850 metres

1616.4 Km

The Oresund CrossingSuperimposed in Fife

From South Queensferry to Kelty

17

An artificial island constructed to join the tunnel and the bridge

The Island is some 4 Km long

The FRC is 2.7Km long

18

An artificial island had to be constructed across the water to join the tunnel and the bridge

The Island is some 4 Km long

The FRC is 2.7Km long

A 4 km tunnel for shipping access

The Tunnel has road and rail

It is submerged into the dredged sea bed.

19

The BridgeRoad & Rail (multimodal)

The world’s longest - 5 MILES

3 times longer than the FRC

20

The Oresund Crossing cost £4.1 Billion *The Forth Crossing cost was priced at £4.2 Billion

The Oresund Project took 5 ½ years; and the FRC???

5 ½ years

21

Professor John Kay.

Do you know this man?

Chosen Financial Adviserto the

SCOTTISHGOVERNMENT.

Public lecture – Sept 2007 on the FRC

“Expressed astonishment”

“..more than 4 times the final cost of the Oresund bridge”

SECTION 3

22

THE SEVERN BRIDGE

The multimodal option was dropped in Dec 2008

We can compare now compare it with a similar UK crossing

23

FROM £4.22 billion

to

£2.34 billion

AN EXCELLENT COMPARISON

Both UK projects

Similar environments – over water etc.

Contemporary projects

Cable Stayed structures

24

COMPARING THE FRC WITH THE SEVERN BRIDGE

025

The 2016 cost is £810 Million*

The 1964 bridge cost £10 Million

The 1996 bridge cost £480 Million

Second Severn Crossing

*Transport Scotland have it at £890 million

026

Second Severn Crossing

Did the Welsh get value for money at £810 million

The average cost per metre is £200k, this is £150k

The average cost per sq metre is £4.5k, this is £4.5k

027

The Original Forth Bridge was built in 1966 costing £20MAt current costs - £300M The FRC is 8% longer – equates to £ 324MSo where do they arrive at £2,3400M???

The 2016 cost is £2,340 Million

The 1966 bridge cost £20 Million

A pro-rate 2016 bridge should cost under £500 Million

FORTH REPLACEMENT CROSSING

FORTH REPLACEMENT CROSSING

028

Are the Scots getting value for money at £2320 million?

The average cost per metre is £200k, this is £850k

The average cost per sq metre is £4.5k, this is £32k

029

Lengthm

Forth 2700Severn 5200

Lanes

46

RoadsKm4

18.5

BuildTime5.54

Cost£m

2,340810

Second Severn Crossing FORTH REPLACEMENT CROSSING

TWICE THE SIZE – A THIRD OF THE PRICE

….Transport Scotland has hit back …

THEIR ANALYSIS IS

“SUPERFICIAL and “MISLEADING”

30

Finally a look at other world bridges.

SECTION 4WORLD BRIDGES

Is the FRC really so expensive?

Q E II Bridge DARTFORD

Opened in 1991 at a cost of £86Million

031

Lengthm

Lanes Towers BuildTime

Cost2016

Q E II 2877 4 2 3 £139mForth 2700 4 3 5.5 £2,340m

10% longer and only 6% of the cost of the FRCThe Forth Bridge Engineering management contract alone cost £100M?

MILLAU VIADUCTFrance

Opened in 2004at a cost of

€350m

032

Lengthm

Lanes Towers BuildTime

Cost2016

Millau 2460 4 7 3 £400mForth 2700 4 3 5.5 £2,340m

Highest Bridge in the world – over 270 metres high – 7 remarkable towers.Broke many world records in technology

VASCO de GAMAOpened in 1998

at a cost of $1000m

033

Lengthm

Lanes Towers BuildTime

Cost2016

Vasco de Gama

17200 6 2 1.5 £941m

Forth 2700 4 3 5.5 £2,340m

18 months in construction. 6 lanes & 10 miles long.ALL FOR 40% OF THE COST

STONECUTTERS FRC

Carries Dual 3-lane highway Dual 3-lane highway

Designer ARUP ARUP

Design Cable-stayed bridge Cable-Stayed Bridge

Total length 1,600 m 2,700 m

Height 75 m Estimated 50 m

Longest span 1,018 m 1,300 m

34

STONECUTTERS BRIDGE HONG KONG

THE SCOTTISH GOVERNMENT USED THIS BRIDGE FOR COST DATA

Stonecutters costs are ALL INCLUSIVEProfitContingenciesFinancingRiskTaxes

Stonecutter’s crossing £245 million

..Transport Scotland...the price compared favourably with other similar structures……..

Forth replacement crossing . £2,340 million

35

Why was it rejected ?

SECTION 5THE TUNNEL OPTION

36

This detailed 80 page report was commission to examine FRC options

FORTH ESTUARY TRANSPORT AUTHORITYSecond Forth Road Crossing Consolidated report Jan 2005 FABER MAUNSELL

CONCLUSION

37

“....more expensive than a bridge...”

£598M

Moving forward from Jan 2005 to Dec 2007 this cost rose

TENFOLD………

Don’t believe it ? Read on…

38

• · Cable-stayed bridge £4.2 billion• · Suspension bridge £4.7 billion• · Bored Tunnel £6.6 billion

Finance and Sustainable Growth Secretary

John SwinneyScottish Parliament

Wednesday, December 19, 2007

Do you know what the Eurotunnel cost??

I have set out the cost estimates for the options…..

Eurotunnel -26 mile sea crossing

FRC -1 mile river crossing

39

THE RIVER FORTH

CHANNEL TUNNEL

£6.6 Billion

£10.2 Billion

50 Km

8 Km

NOT ONE PARLIAMENTARIAN QUESTIONED THIS !!!!!

40

SECTION 6COSTING HISTORY

41

No Date Source Cost

2 Jan 05 Faber and Maunsell £500 m

1 Jun 04 FETA £500 m

3 Feb 07 Scottish Government £1,000+ m

4 Dec 07 Scottish Government £2,790 to £3,630 m

5 Jan 08 Scottish Government £3,250 to £4.220 m

WHY??

What should it cost?

42

Based on inflation only with the existing Forth Road Bridge £360 million

Based on the average cost ofCable Stayed Bridges £396 million

Based on the average cost permetre £440 million

Based on original Government estimates £500 million

43

“Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.”

Aldous Huxley