20 Climate Questions Answered20 Climate Questions Answered

Quick responses to critics of Quick responses to critics of climate changeclimate change

Climate change science has criticsClimate change science has critics

Critics are ok.Critics are ok. Need reviews and fact checking.Need reviews and fact checking.

Instinctive denial is not ok.Instinctive denial is not ok. The questions are fair, but much of the rhetoric is The questions are fair, but much of the rhetoric is

getting personal and/or ad hoc.getting personal and/or ad hoc.

My goal is to answer some of the critics’ My goal is to answer some of the critics’ more common questions.more common questions.

Simple answersSimple answers

I’m going to give short simple answers.I’m going to give short simple answers.

These answers are backed by tens of thousands of studies These answers are backed by tens of thousands of studies by thousands of scientists from dozens of countries.by thousands of scientists from dozens of countries.

Full references available, but two single excellent sources:Full references available, but two single excellent sources:

The Rough Guide to Climate ChangeThe Rough Guide to Climate Change by Robert Henson, 2006. by Robert Henson, 2006.

IPCC Fourth Assessment ReportIPCC Fourth Assessment Report (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), 2007. Change), 2007. http://http://www.ipcc.chwww.ipcc.ch//

Who am I to answer these Who am I to answer these questions?questions?

I’ve studied glaciers and their relationship to climate I’ve studied glaciers and their relationship to climate change since 1989.change since 1989.

I’ve published many peer-reviewed scientific papers on this topic.I’ve published many peer-reviewed scientific papers on this topic. My contributions have been primarily to the underlying math and My contributions have been primarily to the underlying math and

physics.physics.

I am one of thousands who have studied climate change I am one of thousands who have studied climate change in detail. in detail.

I am by no means the biggest contributor.I am by no means the biggest contributor. But I do have an intimate knowledge of the details, particularly the But I do have an intimate knowledge of the details, particularly the

physics.physics.

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Climate change work in Alaska and GreenlandClimate change work in Alaska and Greenland

The basicsThe basics

Humans have released greenhouse gasses Humans have released greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere.into the atmosphere.

Mostly in last 100 years.Mostly in last 100 years. Industrial revolution.Industrial revolution.

The most important gassesThe most important gasses

Carbon Dioxide53%

Methane17%

Ozone (near surface)

13%

Nitrous Oxide12%

CFC's, HFC's5%

Relative importance of each gas.

Greenhouse gasses trap heatGreenhouse gasses trap heat Sunlight comes in (yellow arrow).Sunlight comes in (yellow arrow).

Light is absorbed by Earth.Light is absorbed by Earth. Earth warms and radiates heat (red arrows).Earth warms and radiates heat (red arrows). Too much (extra) heat is absorbed by greenhouse gasses and trapped (dark red Too much (extra) heat is absorbed by greenhouse gasses and trapped (dark red

arrows).arrows).

Extra radiates back from greenhouse gasses and is trapped! Warms the Earth.

Escapes to space. Normally, there is a 1 to1 balance between incoming and escaping radiation.

Greenhouse gas molecule.

How’s it work? Like my dog.How’s it work? Like my dog.

Bear soaks Bear soaks in the sun in the sun and heats and heats up.up.

Bear reradiates heatBear reradiates heat

Sunlight is Sunlight is converted to heat converted to heat that is reradiated that is reradiated outwards.outwards.

Normally, Normally, achieves a nice achieves a nice doggy equilibrium doggy equilibrium of 38of 38°°C (101C (101°°F).F).

Sometimes surrounds himself with Sometimes surrounds himself with greenhouse gassesgreenhouse gasses

Heat trapped by Heat trapped by methane and methane and other gasses. other gasses.

Bounces back off Bounces back off of the molecules.of the molecules.

Can’t cool off Can’t cool off properly.properly.

Is this our future?Is this our future?

Ok, so the Ok, so the analogy isn’t analogy isn’t perfect.perfect.

But the But the following following pictures of pictures of our future our future are real.are real.

Heat causes sea level to riseHeat causes sea level to rise When glaciers melt, the water goes into the ocean

and causes sea level to rise. Heat also causes ocean water to expand (and sea level to rise).

1909, Toboggan Glacier 2000, Toboggan Glacier

Grinnell Glacier, Glacier National Grinnell Glacier, Glacier National ParkPark

1938 (photo T.J. Hileman) 1981 (photo Carl Key) 2005 (photo Blase Reardon)

Climate change summaryClimate change summary

Current data showsCurrent data shows– 0.80.8°°C (1.4C (1.4°°F) increase F) increase

in temperature over in temperature over last century.last century.

relative to 1950-relative to 1950-1980 average temp.1980 average temp.

– Rapidly melting Rapidly melting glaciers.glaciers.

– Rising sea level (20cm Rising sea level (20cm in last century).in last century).

– Shifts in plant and Shifts in plant and animal distributions.animal distributions.

Figure from IPCC, Figure from IPCC, 2007, 2007, Summary for Summary for Policymakers.Policymakers.

Climate change futureClimate change future

Models projectModels project

1.41.4°° to 5.8 to 5.8°°C increase by 2100.C increase by 2100.

~50cm of sea level rise by 2100.~50cm of sea level rise by 2100.– and mass human migrations necessary from coastsand mass human migrations necessary from coasts

37% of all species headed toward extinction by 2050.37% of all species headed toward extinction by 2050.

Loss of fresh water.Loss of fresh water.– Panel of US Army generals (2007) have predicted resulting Panel of US Army generals (2007) have predicted resulting

wars over food and water.wars over food and water.

On to the questions!On to the questions!

Ok, that’s the crude basics.Ok, that’s the crude basics.

Now, on to the questions that I’m frequently Now, on to the questions that I’m frequently asked…asked…

I hear them in the checkout line, on the chair lift, etc.I hear them in the checkout line, on the chair lift, etc. You might too.You might too.

Here’s how you can respond…Here’s how you can respond…

You can’t even predict the weather! You can’t even predict the weather! Why should I believe 100 year Why should I believe 100 year

predictions?predictions?

I hear this a lot.I hear this a lot.

““Weather models as shown on the nightly TV news Weather models as shown on the nightly TV news are getting more elaborate, but their accuracy is still are getting more elaborate, but their accuracy is still not very good beyond a few hours or a few days at not very good beyond a few hours or a few days at best. Predictions over decades are futile.”best. Predictions over decades are futile.”

From commentary in the Boulder Daily Camera, From commentary in the Boulder Daily Camera, January 20, 2008.January 20, 2008.

Why should I believe 100 year Why should I believe 100 year predictions? (Part 2)predictions? (Part 2)

Weather and climate are NOT the same thing.Weather and climate are NOT the same thing. Climate is the average weather over long periods of time.Climate is the average weather over long periods of time.

This lecture is in January in Colorado. Can you This lecture is in January in Colorado. Can you tell me if it will be warmer here in June? tell me if it will be warmer here in June?

Duh! That’s climate. We can predict warmer weather in June Duh! That’s climate. We can predict warmer weather in June with certainty.with certainty.

Predicting the average weather (climate) Predicting the average weather (climate) isis possible (even possible (even though the day-to-day variations are harder to predict).though the day-to-day variations are harder to predict).

Warming schmarming. It snowed sooo much Warming schmarming. It snowed sooo much this week, how can global warming be real?this week, how can global warming be real?

AKA: It’s sooo cold this week, global warming must be a AKA: It’s sooo cold this week, global warming must be a hoax.hoax.

Again, that’s weather not Again, that’s weather not climate.climate.

No single storm or cold snap No single storm or cold snap or hurricane can be directly or hurricane can be directly attributed to climate change.attributed to climate change.

We will still have winters.We will still have winters.

We will still have extreme We will still have extreme weather events.weather events.

My car buried in snow. Not proof that global warming is a hoax.

Humans couldn’t do all that with Humans couldn’t do all that with puny little cars, could they? (Part 1)puny little cars, could they? (Part 1)

Yup.Yup. Data shows we have.Data shows we have.

Cars, planes, industry, etc.Cars, planes, industry, etc.

We spew ~26 billion metric tons of greenhouse gasses per We spew ~26 billion metric tons of greenhouse gasses per year.year.

That’s the equivalent weight of 17 billion cars.That’s the equivalent weight of 17 billion cars.That’s enough cars to That’s enough cars to completelycompletely cover cover

the surface the surface of the Earth about 3000 times.of the Earth about 3000 times.

It would take about 1000 years to count that high.It would take about 1000 years to count that high.

Many different models from many different scientists show that Many different models from many different scientists show that these amounts cause climate change.these amounts cause climate change.

Humans couldn’t do all that with Humans couldn’t do all that with puny little cars, could they? (Part 2)puny little cars, could they? (Part 2)

Where’s 26 billion Where’s 26 billion metric tons go? metric tons go?

The Earth isn’t as big The Earth isn’t as big as we used to think.as we used to think.

It’s surrounded by a It’s surrounded by a VERY thin atmosphere VERY thin atmosphere – like a sheet of paper – like a sheet of paper on a basketball.on a basketball.

Not much room for all Not much room for all those warming gasses!those warming gasses!

Humans couldn’t do all that with Humans couldn’t do all that with puny little cars, could they? (Part 3)puny little cars, could they? (Part 3)

Consider Mt. Consider Mt. Pinatubo, 1991. Pinatubo, 1991.

One volcano spewed One volcano spewed ~20 billion metric tons of ~20 billion metric tons of cooling sulfur dioxide, cooling sulfur dioxide, ashes, etc.ashes, etc.

One single volcano One single volcano lowered temperatures lowered temperatures by 1.0by 1.0°° C for several C for several years.years.

But we spew more than But we spew more than that in that in warmingwarming gasses gasses every year!every year!

Scientists are perpetuating the myth Scientists are perpetuating the myth to keep their funding, right?to keep their funding, right?

No.No. That requires belief in a global-scale conspiracy among thousands of That requires belief in a global-scale conspiracy among thousands of

climate change scientists AND the governments that fund them.climate change scientists AND the governments that fund them. Would only take one credible scientists with credible results to speak Would only take one credible scientists with credible results to speak

up and ruin the conspiracy.up and ruin the conspiracy. Occam’s razor – the conspiracy explanation is too complicated!Occam’s razor – the conspiracy explanation is too complicated!

The core of the global warming research was completed when very The core of the global warming research was completed when very little funding was available (1980’s-1990’s).little funding was available (1980’s-1990’s).

Personal viewpoint: Climate change funding was so hard to find in the Personal viewpoint: Climate change funding was so hard to find in the 1990’s that I decided to pick up a second skill set as a computer 1990’s that I decided to pick up a second skill set as a computer scientist.scientist.

Sure, institutions self-perpetuate. Sure, institutions self-perpetuate. But scientists are trained to be skeptical. They But scientists are trained to be skeptical. They wantwant to debunk the to debunk the

current theory. Want to change the paradigm. (And make a current theory. Want to change the paradigm. (And make a lastinglasting contribution.)contribution.)

Scientists are not in it for the money.Scientists are not in it for the money.

No.No. Natural variability happens.Natural variability happens.

Data shows that human Data shows that human changes are being changes are being added onadded on to that natural variability.to that natural variability.

Very reliableVery reliable models all show that only mankind’s models all show that only mankind’s addition of greenhouse gasses can be responsible.addition of greenhouse gasses can be responsible.

Natural variability alone can’t account for observed Natural variability alone can’t account for observed warming. All the models agree on this!warming. All the models agree on this!

Isn’t it just a natural cycle? (Part 1)Isn’t it just a natural cycle? (Part 1)

Isn’t it just a natural cycle? (Part 2)Isn’t it just a natural cycle? (Part 2) This figure shows This figure shows

temperature data temperature data (black line) and (black line) and climate models climate models – with only natural with only natural

processes (in processes (in blue)blue)

– with both natural with both natural and man-made and man-made processes (in processes (in pink).pink).

Clearly, the models Clearly, the models only match the only match the data when data when including the man-including the man-made processes.made processes.

From the IPCC From the IPCC 2007 2007 Summary for Summary for PolicymakersPolicymakers..

But I heard that variations in the sun But I heard that variations in the sun cause the changes, right?cause the changes, right?

Wrong.Wrong. Changes in solar outputChanges in solar output

have contributed about 1/3 have contributed about 1/3 of the warming over the of the warming over the last 100 years.last 100 years.

The rest comes from The rest comes from greenhouse gasses.greenhouse gasses.

Very thorough modeling studies done by many Very thorough modeling studies done by many different scientists back this up.different scientists back this up.

Sunspots affect solar output. (Photo: Bahr)

Isn’t climate science filled with Isn’t climate science filled with uncertainties?uncertainties?

No, not really. No, not really. The foundations are very solid and based on reliable math, physics, The foundations are very solid and based on reliable math, physics,

and chemistry.and chemistry. Virtually unanimous agreement among thousands of climate scientists Virtually unanimous agreement among thousands of climate scientists

that warming is happening.that warming is happening.

Most of the “uncertainty” comes from our inability to predict Most of the “uncertainty” comes from our inability to predict what people and governments will do in the future.what people and governments will do in the future.

So we create scenarios. So we create scenarios. If governments let COIf governments let CO22 double, then we expect this… double, then we expect this… If COIf CO22 triples, then we expect this… triples, then we expect this…

This creates a range of results.This creates a range of results.

Remaining uncertainties are matters of precision.Remaining uncertainties are matters of precision. Will it rain more in your backyard or mine?Will it rain more in your backyard or mine? Exactly how much will it warm here versus there.Exactly how much will it warm here versus there.

Aren’t the models too complicated to Aren’t the models too complicated to be reliable? (Part 1)be reliable? (Part 1)

No. Complicated does not mean wrong.No. Complicated does not mean wrong.

Your car’s and TV’s are very complicated.Your car’s and TV’s are very complicated. But they work just fine.But they work just fine. Do you think plasma TV’s don’t work?Do you think plasma TV’s don’t work?

Much of the physics (thermodynamics) is the same!Much of the physics (thermodynamics) is the same!

Not understanding the model is Not understanding the model is notnot the the same as discrediting it.same as discrediting it.

Aren’t the models too complicated to Aren’t the models too complicated to be reliable? (Part 2)be reliable? (Part 2)

14 different climate 14 different climate models running 56 models running 56 different different simulations.simulations.– All simulations All simulations

shown in yellow.shown in yellow. – The mean is in The mean is in

red.red.– The actual data The actual data

is in black.is in black.

Clearly, theClearly, the models models reliably simulate reliably simulate the data.the data.

From IPCC, 2007, From IPCC, 2007, The Physical The Physical Science Basis.Science Basis.

Temperature anomalies shown relative to the 1901-1950 mean.

Aren’t the models too complicated to Aren’t the models too complicated to be reliable? (Part 1)be reliable? (Part 1)

““Complexity” is often a relative statement.Complexity” is often a relative statement.

Want an example? See another of my lectures: Want an example? See another of my lectures: Sea Level Rise and GlaciersSea Level Rise and Glaciers..

I work through some of the math and physics used to I work through some of the math and physics used to help predict sea level rise. help predict sea level rise.

To a freshman physics major, this material is complex.To a freshman physics major, this material is complex.

To a senior physics major, this material is not so To a senior physics major, this material is not so complex.complex.

But aren’t some glaciers actually But aren’t some glaciers actually growing? So you must be wrong?growing? So you must be wrong?

AKA: The temperature gauge in the city of ____ shows AKA: The temperature gauge in the city of ____ shows cooling. So you’re wrong.cooling. So you’re wrong.

AKA: I saw AKA: I saw An Inconvenient TruthAn Inconvenient Truth and Al Gore lied about point X. and Al Gore lied about point X.

Umm, no. This is called cherry picking.Umm, no. This is called cherry picking. You can’t focus on one piece of contrary data when the tidal wave of You can’t focus on one piece of contrary data when the tidal wave of

evidence supports the opposite conclusion.evidence supports the opposite conclusion.

Besides, we Besides, we havehave predicted that predicted that somesome parts of the world parts of the world will cool, get wetter, snow more, grow bigger glaciers, etc.will cool, get wetter, snow more, grow bigger glaciers, etc.

Those predictions are consistent with a GLOBAL-scale trend of Those predictions are consistent with a GLOBAL-scale trend of warming.warming.

Cherry PickingCherry Picking

What if I told you “The average American is What if I told you “The average American is 5’7” tall.”5’7” tall.”

Can you trot out Michael Jordan as a Can you trot out Michael Jordan as a contradiction?contradiction?

Duh. No.Duh. No.

Isn’t the “hockey-stick” curve based Isn’t the “hockey-stick” curve based on bad science? (Part 1)on bad science? (Part 1)

AKA: The hockey stick is wrong because ______.AKA: The hockey stick is wrong because ______.

From Mann et al, 1998, 1999, etc.

Isn’t the “hockey-stick” curve based Isn’t the “hockey-stick” curve based on bad science? (Part 2)on bad science? (Part 2)

No.No. This figure has been peer-reviewed by independent This figure has been peer-reviewed by independent

scientists many, many times.scientists many, many times. It’s conclusions are always supported.It’s conclusions are always supported.

Scores of scientists contributed to the data in this figure.Scores of scientists contributed to the data in this figure. i.e., it is not a fabrication of Michael Mann or Al Gore.i.e., it is not a fabrication of Michael Mann or Al Gore.

Global warming does not rely on just this one piece of Global warming does not rely on just this one piece of (very strong) evidence.(very strong) evidence.

Can you say “cherry picking?”Can you say “cherry picking?”

Scientists have been wrong before. Scientists have been wrong before. Why trust them now?Why trust them now?

AKA: What about “global cooling” predicted AKA: What about “global cooling” predicted in the 1970’s?in the 1970’s?

That was not a scientific consensus. That was not a scientific consensus. Only briefly considered by a small minority of Only briefly considered by a small minority of

scientists.scientists. Media latched onto this more than scientists.Media latched onto this more than scientists.

In part, fueled by concerns about a nuclear winter.In part, fueled by concerns about a nuclear winter.

Also see next slide.Also see next slide.

Many scientists disagree, so why Many scientists disagree, so why should I believe? (Part 1)should I believe? (Part 1)

Umm, which scientists? Where?Umm, which scientists? Where?

Global warming is a scientific consensus!Global warming is a scientific consensus! It is very hard to find climate scientists that disagree.It is very hard to find climate scientists that disagree.

Out of thousands, you might find 2 or 3.Out of thousands, you might find 2 or 3. Check their credentials carefully.Check their credentials carefully. Have they published and done first hand research in climate change? Have they published and done first hand research in climate change?

Or did they just review the literature?Or did they just review the literature?

Out of thousands, I can find a few people that believe in anything.Out of thousands, I can find a few people that believe in anything. 998 believe I’m human. 2 believe I’m a mutant alien.998 believe I’m human. 2 believe I’m a mutant alien.

I am not discrediting the critics’ intelligence, but it’s a tidal wave of I am not discrediting the critics’ intelligence, but it’s a tidal wave of support among the thousands that do this research.support among the thousands that do this research.

Many scientists disagree, so why Many scientists disagree, so why should I believe? (Part 2)should I believe? (Part 2)

Some of this is the media’s fault.Some of this is the media’s fault. The media wants to present both points of view.The media wants to present both points of view.

The media successfully uses this The media successfully uses this ““debate” model with politics.debate” model with politics.

So media searches out the few So media searches out the few critics and gives them equal critics and gives them equal footing and equal time. footing and equal time.

This gives the wrong impression that the critics and the climate This gives the wrong impression that the critics and the climate scientists are equal in numbers.scientists are equal in numbers.

Or somehow equally right.Or somehow equally right.

But I read Michael Crichton and he says…But I read Michael Crichton and he says…

AKA: I heard Senator Inhofe [or insert your choice here], and he AKA: I heard Senator Inhofe [or insert your choice here], and he says…says…

Well, you can choose between thousands of climate scientists, or a Well, you can choose between thousands of climate scientists, or a science fiction writer…science fiction writer…

Oh, and Oh, and nownow you’ll believe politicians? you’ll believe politicians? Check those credentials!Check those credentials!

Couldn’t something undiscovered be Couldn’t something undiscovered be to blame?to blame?

Yes, but physics says that greenhouse gasses Yes, but physics says that greenhouse gasses cause warming.cause warming.

Now have the MUCH harder problem of explaining Now have the MUCH harder problem of explaining why modern physics is all wrong.why modern physics is all wrong.

Oh, and broken thermodynamics means Oh, and broken thermodynamics means your car, computer, and plasma TV’s wouldn’tyour car, computer, and plasma TV’s wouldn’twork anymore. work anymore.

Rats.Rats.

Occam’s razor, again.Occam’s razor, again.

Who cares? Isn’t a 1Who cares? Isn’t a 1°° to 2 to 2°C°C temperature increase insignificant?temperature increase insignificant?

No!No! Every 1Every 1°C°C rise in temperature requires a 25% rise in temperature requires a 25%

increase in snowfall to keep glaciers from melting.increase in snowfall to keep glaciers from melting.– So glaciers melt, sea level rises.So glaciers melt, sea level rises.– Ocean water also expands in that heat.Ocean water also expands in that heat.

Coastal aquifers inundated – no water to drink!Coastal aquifers inundated – no water to drink! Coastal cities inundated.Coastal cities inundated. People must migrate inland.People must migrate inland. Ports must be moved.Ports must be moved. Huge economic costs.Huge economic costs. Species go extinct.Species go extinct. Agriculture disrupted.Agriculture disrupted. Etc.Etc.

Wouldn’t global warming be a good Wouldn’t global warming be a good thing anyway?thing anyway?

Define good and bad.Define good and bad. That’s a judgment call.That’s a judgment call.

But ask the billions that live on the coast.But ask the billions that live on the coast. 11 of 15 of the world’s largest cities are at sea level.11 of 15 of the world’s largest cities are at sea level. 53% of the US population lives on the coast.53% of the US population lives on the coast.

Climate change will be similar to El Niño.Climate change will be similar to El Niño. Massive flooding, droughts, famines, fires, storm surges, etc. Massive flooding, droughts, famines, fires, storm surges, etc.

accompany every El Niño.accompany every El Niño. Is that good?Is that good?

Try asking the polar bears. Or coral reefs. Try asking the polar bears. Or coral reefs. Or tropical beaches.Or tropical beaches.

Photo from National Geographic.

Won’t technology come to the Won’t technology come to the rescue?rescue?

Well, I hope.Well, I hope.

But you are placing a lot of faith in possible But you are placing a lot of faith in possible solutions that might or might not exist.solutions that might or might not exist.

Some possible solutions (like spreading ash in the Some possible solutions (like spreading ash in the atmosphere) could cause a host of other atmosphere) could cause a host of other problems.problems.

Isn’t it wiser to mitigate the problem in the first Isn’t it wiser to mitigate the problem in the first place?place?

Any mitigation will wreck the economy. Any mitigation will wreck the economy. You don’t want that do you? (Part 1)You don’t want that do you? (Part 1)

Wreck the economy? Says who? Wreck the economy? Says who? Get their evidence.Get their evidence. Check their credentials!Check their credentials!

Caveat: I’m not an economist.Caveat: I’m not an economist. See! Always check those credentials!See! Always check those credentials!

But I do know there are But I do know there are two possibilitiestwo possibilities:: Maybe we will wreck the economy.Maybe we will wreck the economy. Maybe we won’t wreck the economy.Maybe we won’t wreck the economy.

(Continued next slide.)

Any mitigation will wreck the economy. Any mitigation will wreck the economy. You don’t want that do you? (Part 2)You don’t want that do you? (Part 2)

Maybe we don’t wreck the economy.Maybe we don’t wreck the economy. Many “green solutions” like recycling have produced Many “green solutions” like recycling have produced

major cost savings.major cost savings. Some economists project a green-industry boom.Some economists project a green-industry boom.

Maybe we do wreck the economy.Maybe we do wreck the economy. I’m not sure it matters. I’m not sure it matters. Don’t we have a moral obligation?Don’t we have a moral obligation? Is a dent in the economy worth saving lives?Is a dent in the economy worth saving lives?

Saving entire species?Saving entire species?

Any mitigation will wreck the economy. Any mitigation will wreck the economy. You don’t want that do you? (Part 3)You don’t want that do you? (Part 3)

Either way, reacting to climate problems Either way, reacting to climate problems afterafter the fact could the fact could be hugely expensive.be hugely expensive.

Who’s going to pay to move entire cities?Who’s going to pay to move entire cities?

Who’s going to pay for resulting wars?Who’s going to pay for resulting wars?

– Global climate change presents a serious national security threat that Global climate change presents a serious national security threat that could affect Americans at home, impact U.S. military operations, and could affect Americans at home, impact U.S. military operations, and heighten global tensions.heighten global tensions.

– Massive migrations, increased border tensions, greater demands for Massive migrations, increased border tensions, greater demands for rescue and evacuation efforts, and conflicts over essential resources, rescue and evacuation efforts, and conflicts over essential resources, including food and water – such developments could lead to direct U.S. including food and water – such developments could lead to direct U.S. military involvement.military involvement.

From US Military Advisory Board, 11 most-senior retired generals and From US Military Advisory Board, 11 most-senior retired generals and admirals.admirals.

Isn’t prevention the wisest choice?Isn’t prevention the wisest choice?

Ok, it’s real, but isn’t the response Ok, it’s real, but isn’t the response just mass hysteria? (Part 1)just mass hysteria? (Part 1)

That’s a judgment call. That’s a judgment call. At what level is the response At what level is the response

over-the-top?over-the-top?

To some extent, it is the To some extent, it is the FOX News syndrome.FOX News syndrome.

Death and destruction makes better Death and destruction makes better press.press.

And it’s easy to turn global warming And it’s easy to turn global warming into pictures of dying polar bears. See?into pictures of dying polar bears. See?

But wait, the polar bears But wait, the polar bears areare dying! dying! In my opinion the press coverage In my opinion the press coverage

is warranted!is warranted! Am I hysterical? Judgment call.Am I hysterical? Judgment call.

Ok, it’s real, but isn’t the response Ok, it’s real, but isn’t the response just mass hysteria? (Part 2)just mass hysteria? (Part 2)

Scientists have warned of other big baddies – nuclear Scientists have warned of other big baddies – nuclear winter, pesticide use, etc.winter, pesticide use, etc.

And we have become immune to warnings about the “end of the world”.And we have become immune to warnings about the “end of the world”.

But, this is the first time in history that a group of scientists But, this is the first time in history that a group of scientists have so concertedly, uniformly, and relentlessly sought to have so concertedly, uniformly, and relentlessly sought to inform the public about an impending danger.inform the public about an impending danger.

Climate scientists feel a moral obligation.Climate scientists feel a moral obligation. Maybe that should scare us a little bit.Maybe that should scare us a little bit.

The scientists say we have to do something The scientists say we have to do something nownow. . Inaction will cost lives and dollars. Inaction will cost lives and dollars. Our moral obligation to help is not hysteria.Our moral obligation to help is not hysteria.

But I hate Al Gore.But I hate Al Gore.

AKA: I really dislike _________. This AKA: I really dislike _________. This person is polarizing.person is polarizing.

Strong words. Too bad. Al’s right.Strong words. Too bad. Al’s right.

This is not a debate about personalities.This is not a debate about personalities.

Not a debate about personalitiesNot a debate about personalities

BTW, recognize that incorrect assumption that weather is the same as climate?

In fact, not a debate at all.In fact, not a debate at all.

Questions are productive and instructive!Questions are productive and instructive! But that’s different from a debate.But that’s different from a debate.

The scientific consensus is overwhelming.The scientific consensus is overwhelming. Would you debate that the Earth is round?Would you debate that the Earth is round?

And actions are most productive of all.And actions are most productive of all. Which brings me to the last question…Which brings me to the last question…

Yeah, well, there’s nothing I can Yeah, well, there’s nothing I can do, so why worry?do, so why worry?

But you But you cancan do something! do something!

Small actions by everyone add up to big Small actions by everyone add up to big contributions.contributions.

Small actions by everyone added up to Small actions by everyone added up to cause the problem in the first place!cause the problem in the first place!

Things you can do!Things you can do!

Small actions.Small actions. Doesn’t have to be inordinately painful.Doesn’t have to be inordinately painful.

Reduce the miles you drive each week.Reduce the miles you drive each week. Drive slower (more fuel efficient).Drive slower (more fuel efficient). Vacation closer to home.Vacation closer to home. Use more energy efficient appliances, Use more energy efficient appliances,

light bulbs, etc.light bulbs, etc. Buy wind power (or solar, or…).Buy wind power (or solar, or…). Recycle.Recycle. Insulate your home and hot water heater.Insulate your home and hot water heater. Use low-flow shower heads.Use low-flow shower heads. Turn off computers at night.Turn off computers at night. Search the web for more ideas!Search the web for more ideas!

Did you notice that most of these will save you $$?Did you notice that most of these will save you $$?

““Mass hysteria” summaryMass hysteria” summaryDon’t be that guy!

Be the person that saves that guy, and this guy!

Remember, 37% of all species headed toward extinction by 2050.Remember, 37% of all species headed toward extinction by 2050.

SAVE THIS!SAVE THIS!

Most tropical beaches will be damaged or lost.

And this!And this!

Remember, no more coral reefs with 1°°C rise.

And mitigate this.And mitigate this.

1973Whitechuck Glacier, WA, USA

2006