2. Fish and climate

The forecasts are based on models

IPCC, 2001

The famous "hockey stick"

Climate Gate?

“.. a new form of colonialism...The white wealthy western world telling 1.6 billion people in developing world -- predominantly of color -- that they have to have their economies managed, their energy managed all because of climate fears."

http://joannenova.com.au/2009/12/new-scientist-becomes-non-scientist/

http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/denial

THE world’s leading climate change body has been accused of losing credibility after a damning report into its research practices.A high-level inquiry by the InterAcademy Council (IAC) into the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change found there was “little evidence” for its claims about global warming.It also said the panel had emphasised the negative impacts of climate change and made “substantive findings” based on little proof.

http://www.climatedepot.com/

Global temperature trends:

for the last 1,000 years …

for the last 10,000 years …

for the last 1,000,000 years …

NASA, 1998

It seems as if temperatures have always been changing!

NIPCC

Non-governmentalInternationalPanel onClimate Change

March 2008

Available on line from www.heartland.org

Follow the debate: See http://www.climatedepot.com/

Environmental changes

What are the fishery, environmental, and trophic effects in historical data?

Can we use ‘short-term’ predictions from multiple regression models?

Two kind of predictions:•What happens when?•What happens if?

IPCC 2001, Box 6-1

Normalised catches of 11 commercial fish species (accounting for about 40% of the world’s marine catch) have fluctuated together over the20th century.

Catches also show a strong relationship with the Atmospheric Circulation Index (ACI).

ACI is a large-scale, multi-decadal climatic index based on the direction of atmospheric air mass transfer.

Adapted from Klyashtorin (2001)

IGBP Science Series,“Marine Ecosystems and Global Change http://ioc.unesco.org

Global ecosystem Includes atmosphere,lithospherebiosphere

Modified from Karl et al. (2003)

Artist: Glynn Gorick

All biological production in the sea depends on plankton

Iverson (1990)

Regional Climatology Affects Ecosystems

The Northern Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO)

NAO Index

1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

The Northern Atlantic Oscillation

The Atlantic Multidecal Oscillations (AMO)

Sutton and Hodson(2005)

North sea changes

Trends in the abundance of Calanus finmarchicus from Continuous Plankton Recorder Survey (CPR) data. Annual mean biomass (mg C m-3) in the upper 10m, and as a proportion of the biomass of species representing all omnivorous zooplankton. http://www.igbp.kva.se/documents/recources/NL_47.pdf

Changes in species composition between a cold water and warm water temperate

copepod species in the North sea.

Relationship between annual abundance of Calanus finmarchicus from CPR Surveys and the winter NAO index 1958-1955 in the North Sea. Blue triangles are from when the relationship broke down in the late 1990s. Redrawn in Skjoldal (2004) after Reid and Beaugrand (2002)

r2 = 0.58

Climate (NAO) influence biology

Spawning stock biomass (SSB) of Norwegian spring-spawning herring and the long term-

averaged temperature (the AMO signal)

Toresen og Østvedt (2000)

El Niño-Southern Oscillation Historical sea surface temperature index (ENSO)

El Niño and La Niña events are characterized by warmer or cooler than average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific. They are also associated with changes in wind, pressure, and rainfall patterns. Once developed, El Niño and La Niña events are known to shift the seasonal temperature and precipitation patterns in many different regions of the world, even ones that are distant from the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

For publications on ENSO and fisheries see:http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/lib/elninobib/fisheries/

El NiñoEl Niño

Comparison of El Niño conditions (left) with normal conditions (right).

http://coastwatch.noaa.gov/images/Sea_Surface_Temperature.ppt

 

Pacific Decadal Oscillations (PDO) index and modeled primary production (integrated from the surface to 120m) between 1962 and 2000. During the negative PDO, before 1978, the equatorial Pacific was cooler and primary productivity was higher. Throughout the 1980s and 1990s, the PDO was in the positive phase and, therefore, productivity in general was lower. http://www.ncsu.edu/kenan/ncsi/Docs/Presentations/Duke2.ppt

Climate change

Time series of departures from the 1961 to 1990 base period for an annual mean global temperature of 14.0°C (bars) and for a carbon dioxide mean of 334 ppmv (solid curve) during the base period. From Karl et al. (2003)

Present level

Present level

Historical data examined shows changes in the ocean heat content (to depths of 3000 m) to be slowly increasing with substantial decadal time scale variations related to climate variability.

Levitus et al (Science, 1999)

Cod Recruitment and TemperatureCod Recruitment and Temperature

Mean Annual Bottom Temperature11

10

9

8

7

6

4

3

2

Temp

Warm Temperatures

decreases Recruitment

Warm Temperatures

increases Recruitment

Recruits

Planque and Fredou (1999)From Drinkwater (2004)

R2 = 0.75

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Bottom Temperature

d(R

ecru

itm

ent)

/dT

If BT < 5° and T warms stock recruitment generally increase

If BT between 5° and 8.5°C little change in recruitment

If BT >8.5°C recruitment generally decreases

If BT ≥ 12°C we do not see any cod stocks

Cod Recruitment and TemperatureCod Recruitment and Temperature

Drinkwater (2004)

0

100

200

300

400

500

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Lan

din

gs i

n t

ho

usan

d t

on

nes

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Tem

pera

ture

Cod landings at Greenland

http://www.ices.dk/globec/data/presentations/Climate%20change%20and%20fisheries.ppt#267,6,Cod landings at Greenland

North sea

Examples of North Sea fish that have moved north with climatic warming. Relationships between mean latitude and 5-year running mean winter bottom temperature for (A) cod, (B) anglerfish, and (C) snake blenny. In (D), ranges of shifts in mean latitude are shown. Bars on the map illustrate only shift ranges of mean latitudes, not longitudes. From Perry et al. (2005)

from Quero, Du Buit and Vayne, 1998

North sea cod – fishing or environment?

Year

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Yie

ld (

t)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Annual landings of sole in the Kattegat-Skagerrak (ICES Division IIIA).

Sea level changes

http://www.ipcc.ch/present/cop7/part2.ppt

IPPC, WG1 TS Figure 24

Consequences for the Corals?

• Biologically little is known, but there seems to be a correlation between sea temperatures and coral bleaching.

A. Coral showing normally pigmented regions and bleached regions to the upper side more sunlit side ofcolony. B. Coral in shallows showing similar pattern.

Photographer: O. Hoegh-Guldberg.

Coral bleaching

Coral bleaching

Regions where major coral reef bleaching events have taken place during the past 15 years. Yellow spots indicate major bleaching events. http://www.marinebiology.org/coralbleaching.htm

Distribution of coral bleaching events in 1998

www.duke.edu/web/nicholas/bio217/aer9/causes.htm

Coral bleaching

Weekly sea surface temperature data for Tahiti (149.5oW 17.5oS). Arrows indicate bleaching events reported in the literature. Horizontal line indicates the minimum temperature above which bleaching events occur (threshold temperature). Hoegh-Guldberg (1999)

Coral bleaching

Number of reef provinces bleaching since 1979. Hoegh-Guldberg (1999)

Predictions

• IPCC predicts a 1-2°C rise in SST with doubling of CO2

• McWilliams et al. predicts 100% bleaching of coral colonies in the Caribbean with a rise in SST of only 0.85°C

McWilliams et al 2005. Ecology. 86(8)

Final comments

• Future climate changes are expected

• Impact on fish production unknown

• Individual stocks may change in abundance locally

• If stock increases the cause will be attributed to ‘environment’

• If the stock decrease the cause will be attributed to ‘overfishing’ and/or ‘climate change’

Record Heat Record Ice Melt Record Coral Bleaching Record Hurricane season

Record Droughts

Time for fighting climate change?

Thank you!

Thank you!

Leftover slides

Time-series of relative sea level for the past 300 years from Northern Europe. The scale bar indicates ±100 mm. IPCC 2001(http://www.ipcc.ch/pub/wg1TARtechsum.pdf)