2 December 2016Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife

Model Updates from November • Incorporate 2016 fisheries

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Angler Trips –Transition vs “Without Policy”

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0

50

100

150

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250

300

350

400

450

500

w/o Obs'd w/o Obs'd w/o Obs'd w/o Obs'd

Angler Trip

s (1,00

0s) Spring

Summer

Fall

2013 2014 2015 2016

Ex‐vessel Value –Transition vs “Without Policy”

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0.0

1.0

2.0

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4.0

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w/o Obs'd w/o Obs'd w/o Obs'd w/o Obs'd

Ex‐Vessel $ (m

illion)

Mainstem Sp/Su

Mainstem Fall 4‐5

MS Fall, other

SAFE Sp/Su

SAFE Fall

2013 2014 2015 2016

Model Updates from November • Incorporate 2016 fisheries• Update Local Personal Income Impact using PFMC’s IO-PAC values

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Economic Modeling Updates• New model and updated multipliers available from PFMC

(same source as 2013).• Recreational: $65.35 per private trip, $221.48 per “for hire”

trip• For hire component of angler trip total is unknown and scenario

outputs are based only on private trips ($65.35)• Table provided to gauge sensitivity of overall output to different

assumptions of % of the “for hire” component• Commercial: $1.409 (Fisher $1.09 per ex-vessel $ +

processor $0.32 per ex-vessel $)

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% of Angler trips = “For Hire”

% Increase in recreational LPII

5% 12%

10% 24%

15% 36%

20% 48%

Economic Modeling Updates

Model Updates from November • Incorporate 2016 fisheries• Update Local Personal Income Impact using PFMC’s IO-PAC values

• Additional work on “full implementation” with purse seine

• Full hatchery recruitment out-years (thru 2022)

• Fishery specific contribution to various scenarios

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Outputs for Today(see handouts for additional requested details)

• No policy – update for 2016 data• Full implementation (with non-MSF purse seine) – update 2016 data, complete analysis

• Rebalanced option – update 2016 data• Freeze Transition – update 2016 data• Increased ex-vessel scenario – new, includes 2016 data

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Full Policy Implementation (No action)

Angler trips Ex‐Vessel ValueAppendix C “Base” 350,400 $3.86 MAppendix C 2017+ 425,450 $4.25 MNo Policy 406,100 405,600 $6.18 $5.93 MFull Policy 437,100 433,000 $3.7‐$4.7 $3.77 M

Modeled as:• Spring 80/20, no mainstem commercial fishery• Summer 98/2, no mainstem commercial fishery• REVISED Fall Chinook 80/20, MS commercial all non-mark-selective Zone

4-5 purse seine; no alternative gear in Zones 1-3• Does NOT include operating costs, feasibility, etc. on Z4-5 purse seines• Preliminary - range of potential ex-vessel values• Lower end - data for purse seines in Z4-5 – assumptions (adjustments to

Non-MSF, etc.) need to be evaluated• Upper end - if purse seines are about equivalent to gillnet• MORE ANALYSIS NEEDED

• Coho, mainstem with tangle nets in Zones 1-3• Current plan SAFE releases, 2017+ SAB releases at 1.44 million (recent

average SABs)

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Meets: • Phase out gillnets in mainstem fisheries• Recreational fishery mainstem priority

Does not meet: • Does not enhance viability of commercial

fisheries• Does not optimize economics for region• Conservation benefits inadequate

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Full Policy Implementation (No action)

Adaptive Management –Freeze TransitionModeled as:• Spring 70/30, MS commercial fishery, gillnet allowed in late spring if

impacts available • Summer 70/30, MS commercial fishery with gillnet allowed• Fall Chinook 70/30, MS commercial fishery with gillnet in Z4-5, MS

seine fishery as in transition years, 6” Coho gillnet and Coho tangle net as in transition years

• Current plan SAFE releases, 2017+ SAB releases at 1.44 million (recent average SABs)

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Angler trips Ex‐Vessel ValueAppendix C “Base” 350,400 $3.86 MAppendix C 2017+ 425,450 $4.25 MNo Policy 406,100 405,600 $6.18 $5.93 MFreeze Transition 422,600 420,200 $5.84 $6.10 M

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Meets: • More assurance of viability for commercial

fisheries• More recreational fishery mainstem priority than

without policy• Higher economic returns for region than no or

full policy

Does not meet: • Conservation benefits inadequate• Less recreational priority than planned• Does not phase out gillnets in any mainstem

fisheries

Adaptive Management –Freeze Transition

Adaptive Management –Rebalance Plan (staff recommendation)

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Modeled as:• Spring 80/20, small MS commercial fishery w/ tangle nets post-update• Summer 80/20, MS commercial fishery with selective gear to be

developed by fleet with agency assistance• Fall Chinook 70/30, MS commercial fishery with gillnet in Z4-5 and

Coho tangle net in Z 1-3.• Implementation of fall “conservation fishery”

• Current plan SAFE releases, 2017+ SAB releases at 1.44 million continue

• Addition of 500K spring Chinook to Gnat Cr., 250K each to Westport Sl. (OR) and Coal Cr. (WA, shifted from Cathlamet).

• Allow barbed hooks in Willamette R. and off-channel sport• Remove Youngs Bay sport closure

Adaptive Management –Rebalance Plan (staff recommendation)

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Angler trips Ex‐Vessel ValueAppendix C “Base” 350,400 $3.86 MAppendix C 2017+ 425,450 $4.25 MNo Policy 406,100 405,600 $6.18 $5.93 MRebalance 427,100 424,800 $5.80 $5.77 M*

• Ex-vessel value calculated in 2022 to capture returns of additional off-channel hatchery production

• Mean ex-vessel for 2017-2021 = $5.48 $5.43 M

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Meets: • More recreational fishery mainstem priority than without policy or

transition• More assurance of viability for commercial fisheries than full

implementation• Commercial economics approach transition by 2022• Gillnets removed in spring and summer, use in fall limited • Higher conservation performance• Higher economic returns for region over no or full policy

Does not meet: • Less recreational priority than full implementation• Gillnets remain in fall• Less ex-vessel value than “without policy”• Takes additional time to accrue full commercial benefits

Adaptive Management –Rebalance Plan (staff recommendation)

Positive Ex‐Vessel vs No Policy

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Modeled as:• Spring 80/20, small MS commercial fishery with tangle nets• Summer 80/20, MS commercial fishery with large mesh gillnets• Fall Chinook 67/33, MS commercial fishery with gillnet in Z4-5 and

Coho tangle net in Z 1-3.• Implementation of fall “conservation fishery”

• Current plan SAFE releases, 2017+ SAB releases at 1.44 million continue

• Addition of 500K spring Chinook to Gnat Cr., 250K each to Westport Sl. (OR) and Coal Cr. (WA, shifted from Cathlamet).

• Allow barbed hooks in Willamette R. and off-channel sport• Remove Youngs Bay sport closure

Positive Ex‐Vessel vs No Policy

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Angler trips Ex‐Vessel ValueAppendix C “Base” 350,400 $3.86 MAppendix C 2017+ 425,450 $4.25 MNo Policy 406,100 405,600 $6.18 $5.93 MPositive Ex‐Vessel 422,300 $6.04 M*

• Ex-vessel value calculated in 2022 to capture returns of additional off-channel hatchery production

• Mean ex-vessel for 2017-2021 = $5.70 M

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Meets: • Commercial Ex-Vessel “enhanced” over no-policy scenario• Gillnets removed in spring• More recreational fishery mainstem priority than without policy or

transition• Higher economic returns for region than no or full policy

Does not meet: • Conservation benefits less than rebalanced option• Less recreational priority than planned• Gillnets remain in summer and fall• Takes additional time to accrue full commercial benefits

Positive Ex‐Vessel vs No Policy

Next stepsOregon ODFW staff assess any additional OFWC requests January OFWC hearing for potential rulemaking

Washington December WFWC hearing for presentation and public testimony

January WFWC hearing for potential rulemaking

Oregon staff recommends at least one more Joint FWC subgroup meeting prior to rulemaking

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