2 Case Analysis_spring 2013

Management Information SystemsMGIS 317 Winter 2013*What does your solution mean to?

MGIS 317 Winter 2013

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GuesstimationState your assumptionsPick your metricsEstimate quickly with round numbersAssess your approach and answerKeep expectations and next steps in mind

Management Information SystemsMGIS 317 Winter 2013*


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Estimation ExampleRail transport is the most commonly used mode of long-distance transportation in Mainland China. How many tickets are processed daily?

Management Information SystemsMGIS 317 Winter 2013My AssumptionsPopulation of China is 1.3 billionPercent of population that doesnt work and therefore doesnt travel is 40%Percent Rural/Urban is 60%/40% (rural residents dont have the money to travel)Average traveler makes 2 round trips/person/year A round trip equals 2 ticketsThe Calculation1.3 billion * .6 work *.4 urban = 312 million travelers312 million * 2 tickets *2 trips = 1.25 billion tickets/year1.25 billion / 360 travel days = about 3.5 million tickets/dayThe Real Answer 4 million (2006)*


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You need to Create a Burning PlatformA burning platform helps build buy-inShare price drop, regulatory need, loss of customer confidence, threat of organizational failureReiterating the burning platform throughout the recommendation reinforces your key messageIf the case speaks to loss of customer confidence, your key message should be increase customer confidenceManagement Information SystemsMGIS 317 Winter 2013*Kotters 8 Change StepsEstablish a sense of urgencyCreate a coalitionDevelop a clear visionShare the visionEmpower people to clear obstaclesSecure short-term winsConsolidate and keep movingAnchor the changeWhy Should I Listen to You?


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Getting the right qualitative & quantitative information into the recommendation helps strengthen your positionIts important to use both quantitative and qualitative observations for supportQuantitative data and analysis is required as hard justification for your recommendationQualitative data can be used to support and explain the meaning of the quantitative factsCombining methods leads to a balanced and persuasive argument



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Freemark Abbey - VideoManagement Information SystemsMGIS 317 Winter 2013*


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Management Information SystemsMGIS 317 Winter 2013*Freemark Abbey


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Freemark AbbeyWhat is the situation?What is the key issue?What is the decision?Why did you make that particular decision?What are some alternative solutions?Management Information SystemsMGIS 317 Winter 2013*Activity


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The CanvasManagement Information SystemsMGIS 317 Winter 2013*


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How to discuss a casePreparation is key leading to friendly, dynamic discussionsIdentify the facts, supporting analysis and provide recommendationsThe cases, by design, are compressed and you are working under time pressure the real world also has these elementsThe case mirrors life situationsYOU are the manager, director, employee confronting the problemLearning and having the courage to act under uncertainty and take a standThis is not a passive process and neither is management. You need build your muscles around judgement. Learning to know when to go right or left and whether your gut is in synch with your mind.



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A versionManagement Information SystemsMGIS 317 Winter 2013*IssuesProbability of rain, mold formation, acidity, sugar levels, wine price, reputation, long-term strategyAnalysisWill the vines be damaged by the stormWhat about all the other grapes being grown at Freemark Abey (they are not affected by botrytis mold)What about harvesting only some of the Riesling grapes as a diversification moveCould there be a second storm?Assuming Mr Jaeger chooses to harvest the Riesling grapes before the storm, how much money will he make?Assuming Mr. Jaeger chooses to leave the grapes on the vine, what is the probability that the grapes will end up with botrytis, and how much money will he make if that occurs?Alternatives -Should Mr. Jaeger be willing to pay to learn whether the storm really will hit Napa Valley? -How much should Mr. Jaeger be willing to pay to learn whether botrytis would form if the storm were to hit the Napa Valley?Decision Criteria -Decision tree utilizedCustomer Relationships -Freemark Abbey, Change management -Action/Implementation -Implement highest expected value (EV) with getting some additional intelligence on weather patterns/trends -Advise Mr. Jaeger to leave the Riesling Grapes on the vines despite the approaching storm.Missing info/assumptions -Are there any other studies on botrytis formation -Jaeger is risk neutral


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Management Information SystemsMGIS 317 Winter 2013*Suggestive Approach


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A decision treeManagement Information SystemsMGIS 317 Winter 2013*


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Another Decision TreeManagement Information SystemsMGIS 317 Winter 2013*


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LearningsCase analysisBusiness Model CanvasDecision Tree/tablesManagement Information SystemsMGIS 317 Winter 2013*


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How Do We Build Systems And Manage Projects?


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Leadership and Project ManagementManagement Information SystemsMGIS 317 Winter 2013*


**The Challenge 20 Sticks of Spaghetti 1 yard masking tape 1 yard string 1 marshmallowYour Resources:18 minutes A Team of FourTo Build the Tallest Free Standing Structure(must support marshmallow at top of structure)Management Information SystemsMGIS 317 Winter 2013Activity


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The RulesBuild the Tallest Freestanding Structure: The winning team is the one that has the tallest structure measured from the table top surface to the top of the marshmallow. That means the structure cannot be suspended from a higher structure, like a chair, ceiling or chandelier.The Entire Marshmallow Must be on Top: The entire marshmallow needs to be on the top of the structure. Cutting or eating part of the marshmallow disqualifies the team. Use as Much or as Little of the Kit: The team can use as many or as few of the 20 spaghetti sticks, as much or as little of the string or tape. Break up the Spaghetti, String or Tape: Teams are free to break the spaghetti, cut up the tape and string to create new structures.The Challenge Lasts 18 minutes: Teams cannot hold on to the structure when the time runs out. Teams touching or supporting the structure at the end of the exercise will be disqualified.Ensure Everyone Understands the Rules: Dont worry about repeating the rules too many times. Repeat them at least three times. Ask if anyone has any questions before starting.Management Information Systems**MGIS 317 Winter 2013Activity


Management Information Systems**MGIS 317 Winter 2013Activity


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Thank YouManagement Information SystemsMGIS 317 Winter 2013*


These are just some of the expectation for your project and the mini-cases**A generalized structure, Works both in presentations and written reports*Details of the generalized plan***The things that differentiate you are your insights and the So What why should I care about what you are saying*This is a good way to think about justifying what you are proposingThe stuff in the umbrella are secondary for the purposes of the class but are very important in the real world; these are the complicationsIf they can get the stuff in the lower part of the slide we are doing well*Some rules around estimations or Guesstimation: an example follows on the next slide*The other idea is to round off the numbers so you can do easy in the head math. Its close enough math*Our students suck at sellingHow do you get the interest from the startThe use of a proper executive summaryWe will do more of this in the change management topic**Overall business benefits (e.g. reduction in rework by x%, increase in safety by y%)

Follow the money, how much are the decisions worth? Is there a better way? What about a $100,000 weather machine?The teaching note is a good oneThere will be questions on the midterm about the case**Video is 6:51. Dont post this slide before, Can be used in your debrief if you like. This is a really good way to talk about waterfall methods versus iterative methods*

Documents

2 Case Analysis_spring 2013