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8/14/2019 1The Future of Meteorology 1
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"TheFutureofMeteorology:Research,Design,andPractice"
FridaysFearlessForecast:Meteorologyin20Years:itisimportanttolookatthepastto
.whatwecandointhenextdecades.
8/14/2019 1The Future of Meteorology 1
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atmosphereand
related
environment
to
Changing
missions
ro ec ean proper y
Enhanceeconomiccompetiveness
Supportenvironmental
quality
(stewardship)
Fosterasustainablesociety
8/14/2019 1The Future of Meteorology 1
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M r l : A fi l wi h m l i l
dimensions,oronewithamultiplepersonalitydisorder?
Sciencevs Engineeringor
Disciplinevs Profession
or
Purevs Applied
Climatevs Weather
Oceanvs Atmosphere
Enterthesocial behavioral decisionsciences
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Sciencevs En ineerinScientistsstudytheworldasitis;engineerscreatetheworldthat
hasneverbeen. TheodorevonKrmn Assertion:
Many
current
weather
products
andservicescouldbeim rovedandnewones
developedthroughanengineeringapproach
totheir
desi n
and
realization.
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Design=problemsolvingthroughtheapplicationofscientificandmathematicalprinciples,supplementedbyempirical
techniques
and
best
practices
learned
through
experience,toachieveapracticalend
Inadditiontotheunderlyingscience,designnormallyrequiresconsiderationoftheaesthetic,functional,and
manyother
aspects
of
an
object
or
a
process,
which
usually
requ rescons era eresearc , oug ,mo e ng,interactiveadjustment,andredesign.
Meteorologyisinvolvedinproducinganddistributingtime
sens t ve
n ormat on ,w t
t e
re evant
p ys ca
systems
beinginformationgeneratingones,consistingofsensing/processing/displaydevices.
8/14/2019 1The Future of Meteorology 1
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BalanceBetweenClimateandWeather
Climatechan e chan einweatherre imes
Itsreal,
its
happening;
significant
environmental
changesunderway
andoceanresearchproducinganimbalance?? Climate
vs Weather
=
An
artificial
division
nature
is
acontinuum
Oceanvs atmosphere interactingcomponentsofone lobals stem
Astrong,
proactive
weather
enterprise
is
essential
for
adaption,copinginthefaceofenvironmentalchange
8/14/2019 1The Future of Meteorology 1
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Theimportanceofsocial economic politicaldimensions Improvethevalueofweatherinformationproductsto
theuser
Provideusers(=consumers)withinformationneededto
Governmentatalllevels
Business
and
commerce
ranspor a on
Agriculture
Homelandsecurity/Militaryoperations
Generalpublic
Sustainability mitigation,adaptation,coping/muddling
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8/14/2019 1The Future of Meteorology 1
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Observation,DataAssimilation, Hurricanes
Track
Structure
Evolutionofintensity
Postlandfall
Wildfire wildfiresversusprescribedburns;managementofresources,
Environmentalquality,regionaltolocalscale(streetcanyonwinds;pollution;diseasespread) Microscale
urban
environment
re
urbanization
of
city
cores
will
lead
to
new
economic rivers
Energyproduction wind/solar,otherrenewables growthmarket;explorationforfossilfuelsineveryharsherenvironments
Challenges Resolution hardware
Interfacecharacterizationmapping,measurements;dataassimilation
Parameterization physics
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Ubiquitous
Num ero userso weat erin ormationis
becomingoverwhelming
change
from
pus to pu provi econstant y
updateddatabases+toolsforusers=users
con gureown
port o o
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Downscalin tools first eneration smart
decisionaides?
Nowcastingonthemeso andmicroscale
Wildfire
Plumespread
Interpolatemesoscalemodeloutputdowntomicro(landscape)scale;combinationofphysics,statistics,
an
;aggress ve
ver ca on va a on
Continuityindisplaysshowingpast,present,and
8/14/2019 1The Future of Meteorology 1
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Asynchronous
,
networks
Lidar tocomplement,extendradarinmany
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Refractivity
Nonmeteoro ogica targets
Aerobiology
atmospheric
analog
to
marine
io ogy
Birds/bats/insects census,migration;spreadof
Firesmokeandotherplumemonitoring
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Stabilityof
a
highly
non
linear
system
u en ap mate ange unp easant
surprises
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Forecasting
Communication
owwe o son emeso an sma er
scales? Someblendofensemblesand
s a s cs
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Flexibilityand
agility
Entrepreneuria spirit