1power Scenario

7/29/2019 1power Scenario

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SUDHIR CHOPADE


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Why to study power scenario?

Why demand supply mismatch?

What are the characteristics of electricity? Growth of power sector?

Challenges to meet ?

What are power sector reforms ?

Electricity act 2003

Important organizations in power sector with their roles and

responsibilities What is future of electricity market?


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1 peta joule = 1015joules = 238.84 x 1012 caloriesOne billion kilowatt hour of electricity = 3.60 peta joules of

energy.


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Growth of demand of electricity in India


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Challenges in front of power sector.

In case of developing countries, the energy sector assumesa critical importance in view of the ever-increasing energyneeds.

Energy is one of the major inputs for the economic

development of any country. It requires huge investment and proper planning and long

execution time.

.

Lot of socio-economic factors are involved.

Electricity can not be stored so has to be generated whenrequired.


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Various options available to meet electricity demand and

challenges

8


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Coal reserves available in the world

10


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ENERGY SCENARIO

12


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ENERGY SCENARIO

13


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680 720 760 880 920 960800 84 0

NN

EE

NE

B

DESH-

NEPALBHUTAN

82.50

J&K

HP

PUNJABHARIAN

A

RAJASTHAN UP

MP

BIHARASSAM

MNP

MIZTRP

NG

ME

MYANMAR

SKMDELHI

NERNER

KND

Generation Resources

Load Centers

Weather

Seasons

SS

WW

SRI

ORISSA

L

MAHARASHTRA

KARNATAKA

TAMILNADU

AP

LAKSHADWEE

P

A&N

PONDICHERYGOA

DIUDAMAN

LANKA

CTGR


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FOR EASEY CONTROL AND MONITERING OF

POWER SECTOR IT IS DEVIDED IN FIVE

REGIONS

WR - WESTERN REGION

NR - NORTHERN REGIONSR - SOUTHERN REGION

ER - EASTEN REGION

NER - NOR TH EASTERN REGION


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EASTERN

NORTHERN

REGION NORTH-EASTERN

REGION

REGIONAL

GRIDS

Deficit Region

Snow fed run-of the river hydro

Highly weather sensitive load

Adverse weather conditions: Fog & Dust

Storm

Very low load

High hydro potential

1 February 2013ERLDC:POWERGRID 181-Feb-13 POWERGRID - NRLDC 18

SOUTHERN

REGION

WESTERNREGION

REGION

Industrial load and agricultural load

Low load

High coal reserves

Pit head base load plants

High load (40% agricultural load)

Monsoon dependent hydro


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NEW Grid

South

GridOctober 1991East and Northeast

synchronized

March 2003

West synchronized

With East & Northeast

August 2006

North synchronized

With Central Grid

INDIA

32,87,263 sq. km area

More than 120 crore people

Installed Capacity of 178 GW

1 February 2013ERLDC:POWERGRID 19

South

West

North

East

Northeast

Five Regional Grids

Five Frequencies

Central Grid


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N-E-W Grid

EASTERN

REGION

NORTHERN

REGION

NORTH-

EASTERN

REGION

1

The

ElectricalRegions

1 February 2013ERLDC:POWERGRID 201-Feb-13 POWERGRID - NRLDC 20

SOUTH Grid

SOUTHERN

REGION

GION

2


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HIGHLIGHTS

Thomas Alva Edison invented Electric Lamp in 1884.

18thNov.1897 first generating station in India (Asia) started at Sidrapong

(Darjiling) [ 3 X 65 KW, 1PH]

Installed capacity of India as on 15thAug 1947 was 1362 MW

Generating capacity has grown from 1712 MW in 1950 to more than 200,000

.

The growth in the transmission lines has been from 2708 ckm in 1950 to more

than 200,000 ckm today.

About 90% of 587,000 villages have been electrified, balance to be electrified by

2015.

65% households have access to Electricity, balance to be covered by 2015.


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Power Sector: largest contributor to GHG emissions. (58%)

T&D losses: 18 to 62%

High Commercial losses

India: 6th Largest electricity utilizing country next to USA,

China Ja an UK and France.

India to achieve : 4th rank by next five year plan.

The per capita consumption of electricity is estimated at1000

kWh approx.


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Year All India IC (MW)

1947 1362

1966-67 End of 2stPlan - 10092

1971-72 End of 3stPlan - 15254

1976-77 End of 4rdPlan - 21469

1981-82 End of 5th Plan - 32345

- th -

1991-92 End of 7th Plan - 690651996-97 End of 8th Plan - 85919

2001-02 End of 9th Plan - 104917

2006-07 End of 10th Plan - 144565

2011-12 End of 11th Plan - 213069


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104917

144565

213069Instal

led

Capacit

1362 465314709

30214

66086

1947 1961 1971 1981 1991 2002 2008 2012

y

year


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MW %

9th Plan End 78441 69189 (9252) (11.8)

FY 02-03 81492 71547 (9945) (12.2)

FY 03-04 84574 75066 (9508) (11.2)

FY 04-05 87906 77652 (10254) (11.7)

FY 05-06 93255 81792 (11463) (12.3)

FY 06-07 100715 86818 (13897) (13.8)

FY 07-08 108866 90793 (18073) (16.6)

FY 08-09 109809 94634 (15175) (13.8)

Surplus/DeficitPeriod Peak Demand (MW) Peak Met (MW)

Year wise power and energy deficit in India

MUs %

9th Plan End 522537 483350 (39187) (7.5)

FY 02-03 545983 497890 (48093) (8.8)

FY 03-04 559264 519398 (39866) (7.1)

FY 04-05 591373 548115 (43258) (7.3)

FY 05-06 631757 578819 (52938) (8.4)

FY 06-07 690587 624495 (66092) (9.6)

FY 07-08 739345 666007 (73338) (9.9)

FY 08-09 645789 574562 (71227) (11.0)

Period Energy Requirement (MUs) Energy Availability (MUs) Surplus/Deficit


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By the year 2012, Indias peak demand would be 157,107 MW with energy

requirement of 975 BU.

Capacity to increase to 212,000 MW by year 2012 to meet the peak

demand of 1,57,107 MW.

157107 *115705

8149278037

Peak

Peak

Peak

Peak

r

equirement

r

equirement

r

equirement

r

equirement

inMW

inMW

inMW

inMW

yearyearyearyear


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Projected economic growth for the year 2012 of 7 to 8%

Necessitates commensurate growth of commercial energy

particularly electricity

Present shortages of 7% in power supply and 10.6% in peak

requirement

enera ng capac y o , , requ re o o v a e

the shortages

Additional capacity Requirement

Indian economy is growing at a rate of approx 8%

Power demand in India is growing at a rate of approx.6%

Target 58,504 MW is to be added ( in 2008-2012) for

achieving objective of Power for All by 2012


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99.00 %2200022245VII (1985-90)

72.30 %1422619666VI (1980-85)

%ACHIEVEMETOF TARGET

ACHIEVEDMW

TARGET MWPLAN

----------------58564XI (2007-12)

34.00%2118057139X (2002-07)

60.00 %2430940245IX (1997-02)

53.77 %1642230538VIII (1992-97)


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Installed Capacity Requirement

(at 8% growth rate)

9621000

1200

)

Projected installed capacity requirements in India

206303

445

655

0

200

400

600

800

2011-12 2016-17 2021-22 2026-27 2031-32

Year

Capacity(G


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Average plant load factor of Thermal power stations in

the country has improved during the ninth plan.

It increases from a level of64.66% in 1996/97 to 77%approx.

21 numbers of thermal power stations with an

aggregate installed capacity of 25237.5 MW operated

above 90% PLF.


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MW 11th Plan (FY08 -12) 12th Plan (FY13 -17)

Central 39,865 39,365

State 27,952 12,300

Private 10,760 30,340

Total 78,577 82,000


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A heavily coal dependent route of sectoral development is not

environmentally sustainable due to huge quantity of fly ash and

Green House Gases (GHG)emissions.

causes serious environmental problems and health hazards

Power sector should and perhaps would, continue to

support the dominant role of Coal however Environmental

.

Medium / long term measures need to be evolved and

implemented.

Coal, Power and Manufacturing groups need to work together to effectively mitigate the concerns


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Power Sector was governed by

Indian Electricity Act, 1910

Electricity (Supply) Act, 1948

Indian Electricity Rules, 1956

Provisions of these Acts were obsolete a new Act was required in line with present

business practices.

e new ct nee s to prov e or sector mon tor ng w t n u t rewar s or

efficiency and penalties for violation.

To address these multifaceted issues, it required:

Separation (unbundling) of business activities into Generation, Transmission

and Distribution to identify the inefficient and loss making business.

Privatization of business, if the performance does not improve.

Independent electricity regulatory mechanism for monitoring


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Post Independence, power sector entities were PSUs (NTPC, PGCIL,

DVC, etc.), SEBs and Private Utilities (CESC, TPC, REL, AEC, etc).

Tariff fixed by Central/State Power Ministry.

Minimum accountability for technical competency, efficient operations,

financial viability.

Poor O & M practices, political interference in SEB functioning.

No independent mechanism for monitoring sector performance.

Government subsidies available to SEBs only, highly subsidized tariffs to

certain consumer categories.

High T & D losses and huge commercial losses.

By 1980s, financial condition of SEBs started deteriorating.


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Electricity reforms begun in 1991 and proceeded inthree phases and are still ongoing.

Thefirst phasefocused on increasing investment in power generation to sustain 8%

annual economic growth.

Insecond phase states began their own reforms as unbundling of SEBs into separate

entities as Generation, Transmission and Distribution to improve efficiency. This second phase of reforms included the establishment of independent State

Electricity Regulatory Commissions (SERCs). A primary motivation for creating

inde endent re ulators was rationali ation o tari s.

At the same time, an independent regulator, insulated from political pressure, would bein a better position to set tariffs to ensure that consumers were protected while

companies profit.

Athird phase of reforms emerged at the end of the 1990s, as the central government

attempted to coordinate a reform strategy for India as a whole which sought toimprove the distribution of electricity.

All states are eligible for the grants and loans, and those with the best performance in

reaching specific milestones earn extra rewards


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Generation de-licensed. Captive Generation encouraged through waiver of open access surcharge and

connectivity to grid for evacuating surplus power.

Combined Generation/Distribution de-licensed in rural areas.

CEA clearance required for Hydro projects only. Rural Electrification to be done by Panchayats, Cooperative Societies, NGOs,

Franchisees etc.

CTU/STU to lan & develo transmission network.

Private sector participation in Transmission and Distribution. Non discriminatory Transmission Open Access introduced.

Distribution Open Access introduced in phases.

Distribution licensees can undertake generation & vice versa.

Mandatory setting up of CERC/SERC for tariff determination. State Government to pay subsidy through budget.

Trading as a distinct activity, CERC/SERC to fix trading margins.

Re-structuring of SEBs.

Metered supply of electricity mandatory.


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Perspective planning, policy formulation, processing of projects for investment

decision,

Administration and enactment of legislation in regard to thermal, hydro power

generation, transmission and distribution.

Administration of EA, 2003, the Energy Conservation Act , 2001 and issuing

clarifications

Undertake amendments to these Acts, in conformity with the Government's policy

objectives.

Rural Electrification policy.

Hydro Power development.

Procurement of power by distribution license through competitive bidding.

National Electricity Policy and Plan.

National Tariff Policy.

Tariff bidding for transmission projects.

Mega and Ultra Mega Power Plant.


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Regulate the tariff of GENCOs owned / controlled by Central

Government or GENCOs selling to more than one State.

Regulate and determine tariff for inter-State transmission.

Issue transmission / trading license for inter-State operations.

Adjudicate upon disputes involving GENCOs or licensee and

refer any dispute for arbitration; Levy fees/charges and specify Grid Code.

Specify and enforce standards for quality, continuity and

reliability of service by licensees.

Fix trading margin for inter-State trading.


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Tariff determination for intra-sate generation, transmission &

distribution.

egu a e power purc ase an procuremen process.

Promote competition, efficiency and economy.

Dispute resolution and arbitration between licensees.


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Advise the Central Government for improving the sector.

Formulate short-term and perspective plans for sector development andco-ordinate planning process.

Specify technical and safety standards for construction, operation andmaintenance of power plants and lines.

Specify conditions for installation of meters. Assist in the timely completion of projects and specify measures for skill

enhancement.

Training and manpower development.

Collect power sector data and carry out studies relating to cost, efficiency,

competitiveness Publish sector reports and investigations.

Promote research in all areas of the sector.

Advise any State Government, licensees or GENCOs to enable optimum

utilization of resources. Advise the appropriate Government/ CERC / SERCs on all technical

matters relating to the power sector.

Monitoring the implementation of power projects.


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1power Scenario