1.Climate Change Vulnerability__An Overview

8/9/2019 1.Climate Change Vulnerability__An Overview

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Climate Change Vulnerability: An Overview

Thomas E. DowningSEI Oxford Office

[email protected]


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Outline

• Concepts matter: where you start determines

where you end up

• Lining !roadsca"e #u"nera!i"ity and

sustaina!"e "i#e"ihoods

• Integration: Integrated #u"nera!i"ity

assessment is possi!"e$ !ut !est conducted

at the "oca" to regiona" "e#e"• Opportunities in Trieste


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Linking science and policy: Who wants information on

vulnerability?• %here are the #u"nera!"e&

' Targeting geographica" region$ socio(economic c"ass

• %ho are #u"nera!"e& ' Li#e"ihoods at(ris

• %hat shou"d !e done& ' Lin c"imate po"icy to sustaina!"e de#e"opment

• %hat is the future of #u"nera!i"ity&

' Exposure to g"o!a" change$ po"icy impacts


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Adaptation spacePolicy

DEVELOPMENT: CLIMATE CONVENTIO

Additionality

ACTORS:

Local

Global

Private State

Implementation

Social vulnerability:

Risk ana!eent

Sustainable liveli"oo#s

A B

C

A: Farm agro-technologyB: National agricultural develC: International trade and ma


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ses of vulnerabilityassessments

Scale Indices Users

International National

comparisons of vulnerability

UNFCCC:

Eligibility for

adaptation

funding

Regional Multiple dimensionprofiles of regional

vulnerability

Regional

agencies:

Programme

design

Local Profiles of vulnerable situations

or syndromes Local offices:

Project evaluation

Eco-

systemsWater

Other

sectorsFood ealth

Settle-

ment


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Cost of climatic disasters

1677%359%4.1%3.6%Loss/GrossDomestic

Saings

47%7!%1%"1%Loss/income #c

$56176!169Loss #c

9613&69$&43$45&1!1'istorica( (oss&)*

$%6%".1%+i,/GD-

43379!&$14$9&$67GD- #c

icaraga'on,ras+rgentina0S+

Source: Paul Freeman et al., IIASA and Wo


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Cost of disasters in!icaragua

Without catastrophes, the number o people in povertydeclines,reaching the target in !"#"

With catastrophes and no e$ternal aid, the poverty gap

increases over time%Source: Paul Freeman, et al. (2001)


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Climate impacts perspectives

!limate change

"st-Nth order

impacts

Micro-

adaptation

#Sectoral$

%ulnerability

!limate variabilitySystemic

%ulnerability

Sustainabledevelopment

&daptivecapacity

Sstaina(e

(ie(i2oo,s


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"tarting points

• Scenario("ed ' )*+,C"imate change exposure$ impacts$ adaptation-

' C"imate change is the pro!"em

' daptation is margina" to c"imate change impacts ' Short(term responses

• )u"nera!i"ity(first ' )*ris of ad#erse conse/uences

' 0ocus on adapti#e capacity and systemic properties ' So"utions in sustaina!"e de#e"opment

' 1ighest priority is c"imate #aria!i"ity ,ris-


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$ntegrated vulnerability(adaptation

&ource: Bohle, Watts, '


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Operational vulnerabilityassessment

• 1ow do we de#e"op a

consensua" definition and

measurement of#u"nera!i"ity&

• 1ow do we measure

#u"nera!i"ity&


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Vulnerability is)

• n aggregate measure of human we"fare that

integrates en#ironmenta"$ socia"$ economic

and po"itica" exposure to a range of harmfu"

pertur!ations.


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• 2rgent adaptation needs of most #u"nera!"e groups

• Existence of "oca" coping strategies

• 1ard(won "essons from other ,non(c"imate- discip"ines,e.g.$ sustaina!"e "i#e"ihoods$ disaster mitigation$ natura"

resource management-

• 3o(regrets options and 4Trip"e Di#idend5

• Disconnect !etween community needs and the po"icyprocess

Why talk about "ustainable

Livelihoods?


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*he "ustainable Livelihoods

ConnectionPoverty

Vulnerability to Shocks

Vulnerability to Climate Extremes

At risk of Climate Change

Sustainable LivelihoodsResilience to shocks

Climate Change Adaptation


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What does +"ustainable Livelihoods,mean?

Sustainable Livelihoods The capa!i"ity of peop"e to

mae a "i#ing and impro#e their /ua"ity of "ife without

6eopardi7ing the "i#e"ihood options of others.

livelihood is the means$ acti#ities$ entit"ements andassets !y which peop"e mae a "i#ing.

Sustainability imp"ies: ' !i"ity to cope with and reco#er from stresses and shocs

' Economic effecti#eness ' Eco"ogica" integrity

' Socia" e/uity

,8ennie and Singh$ 9;-


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*rends in food security frameworks

• Exposure:

' 0ood security ((< Li#e"ihood security

• )=:

' 1oo#ering ((< Structured assessment

' Sing"e indicator ((< >rofi"es ((< >athways&

• 8esca"ing

' 8egiona" ((< Indi#idua" ((< ?"o!a"isation


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A formal notation?

V s,g c

Where:

T=threat

s=sector

g=group

c=consequence

E.g.: climate change vulnerability in agriculture

for farmers’ economic welfare

T


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1DI C"ass

=issing ,9@-

Low ,AB-

=edium ,-1igh ,9@@-

1uman De#e"opment Index


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.lobal deserti/cation


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'nvironmental "ustainability

ESI

9 ,-

,A-

,AA-

A ,-B ,9;-

; ,-


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8anti:ing (nerai(it: an, esi(ience

to ;(imate ;2ange

Sett(ement

$1


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!aseline Vulnerability"Resilience

#ndicator Value

$%orld value & ' for ())'*

FemenIndia

TunesiaChina

EgyptGang"adesh

Senega"South(.frica

Li!yaThai"and

3igeria2raine

Sudan27!eistan

Saudi(.ra!ia=exico

%or"dIran

Cam!odiaHorea(8ep

>o"andIndonesiaChi"e1ungary

Horea(D(8(8p2HordanGu"garia

apan3ether"ands

Spain .rgentina

2S.)ene7ue"a

Gra7i"?ermany

3ew(Jea"and .ust ra"ia

Canada

(@@ (9B@ (9@@ (B@ @ B@ 9@@ 9B@ @@ B@


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$taly: soil and water


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Vulnerability Profile+ ,elanta ,a-unt+ Ethiopia

(@.9

@.9

@.

@.B

@.

@.

9.9

.. Si/e

0ale laborers

1otal #ncome

1otal Expenditure

Crops sales price in bad year

2ood Aid

3ra/ing land

Crop land

0id Altitude

Road Access

Livestock holdings

1ypes of dairy

Low income crop ,) 1igh-

=idd"e income crop ,1igh-

CropKdairy ,=od-

Iso"ated$ midd"e income crop ,=od-

1igh incom e dairy ,=od-

Vulnerability pro/le for 'thiopia


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What can the "ustainable

Livelihoods Approach do?• Enhance a communitys portfo"io of 4socia"

capita"5: composite of natura"$ physica"$

financia"$ technica" and human capita"

• Increase "i#e"ihood security

• Enhance capacity to cope with c"imate(

re"ated shocs

• Gui"d capacity to adapt to c"imate change


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An '1ample from $ndia:

• Context: >oor rura"

#i""ages in the drought(

prone state of

=aharashtra

Approach: Micro-catchment Restoration and

Development

Actors: Local Communities and the Watershed

Organisation Trust (WOTR)Image source. http.//00010otr1org/


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$ndia: What happened?

Indi#idua" #i""ages undertoo a pacage of SL measures$

designed to regenerate and conser#e the micro(catchments upon which their community depends:

' Community Organi7ation

' Soi"$ Land and %ater =anagement ,e.g.$ trench !ui"ding-

' Crop =anagement ' fforestationM 8ura" Energy =anagement ,e.g$. tree(fe""ing

!an-

' Li#estoc =anagementM >astureK0odder De#e"opment ,e.g$

gra7ing restrictions-

' =icro("ending for supp"ementa" income generation


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$ndia: 2ow did it happen?

• Community commitment$ in#estment and contro"• 4)i""age Se"f(1e"p ?roups5

• >articipatory p"anning$ imp"ementation$ management

• Targeted ro"e for women

• Se"f(assessment

• Opportunities for "i#e"ihood security• =icro("endingM Supp"ementa" income generation

• Community se"f(he"p groups

• Support of "oca" 3?O ,%OT8-

• Training and extension ser#ices

• G"ending of 4externa"5 and traditiona" now"edge


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$ndia: What was the result?

Satellite imagery of Shenit %atershed

tandard !CC "sing #R $C L# ### %and &'' data* Date o+ scan: $,th anuar. $,,/* ource: http:00111*1otr*org

January 1996Prior to project implementation

December 1999During project implementation


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$ndia: What was the result?

The key outcome has been reduced

vulnerability to drought of participating

communities

s of @@9:

• 3um!er of >ro6ects 9N• Tota" rea Co#ered ,ha.- 9B$N9

• 3o.of )i""ages 9;• 3o.of 3?Os in#o"#ed • 3o.of Districts • Tota" >opu"ation engaged 9@$@@@ ,approx.-

Image source. http.//00010otr1org/


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An '1ample from "udan:

• Context: )i""ages in the drought(prone Gara

>ro#ince$ %estern Sudan

• pproach: Community(Gased 8ange"and

8eha!i"itation

• Hey ctors: )i""ages within ?ireigih rura" counci"$

pi"ot pro6ect staff$ 23D>K?E0


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"udan: What happened? group of #i""ages undertoo a pacage of SL

measures$ designed to regenerate and conser#e thedegraded range"ands upon which their community

depends. These inc"uded:

' Community Organi7ation

' "ternati#e Li#estoc and Li#estoc =anagement

' 8ura" Energy =anagement

' 8ep"anting

' Sta!i"i7ation of sand dunes

' Creation of wind!reas

' =icro("ending for supp"ementa"

income generation

,Image source: The 3ear East 0oundation$ http:KKwww.neareast.orgKmainKnefnotes-


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• 1igh impact ( Se#era" ma6or o!6ecti#es exceeded origina" targets

pro6ect due to percei#ed !enefits

• >ositi#e "eaage ( additiona" #i""ages imp"ementing pro6ect

strategies

• Strategies s"ated for expansion and rep"ication in >ro#ince

2++ectivel. com%inedparticipator. planning' capacit.

%uilding and access to credit

Diversi+ied production s.stem

and esta%lished droughtcontingenc. measures

"udan: What was the result?

Image source: The 3ear East 0oundation ,http:KKwww.neareast.orgKmainKnefnotes-


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Applying the "L Approach to

Adaptation: Why do it?The SL approach he"ps users to:

• 0ocus on most #u"nera!"e peop"e

• ssess their #u"nera!i"ities and strengths

• Tap existing now"edge$ ongoing efforts to

determine what works

• Ena!"e community(dri#en strategies and actionMensure !uy(in and "onge#ity

• 2"timate"y fortify against c"imate(re"ated shocs


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Sample approach

• Identify resi"ient communities ,indicators-

• s why ' %hat do they do ,strategies and measures-&

' %hat do they ha#e ,assets$ 4socia" capita"5-&

• s what factorsKconditions ena!"ed them to carry

out strategies and measures• Disti"" "essons on how to !ui"d community

resi"ience to c"imate impacts

Applying the "L Approach to

Adaptation: 2ow to do it?


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2sing this as a too" in adaptation assessment can he"p to:

• Ena!"e nationa" p"anning processes to effecti#e"y consider the

most #u"nera!"e groupsM articu"ate uni/ue "oca" #u"nera!i"ities• Identify "oca""y(re"e#ant resi"ience(!ui"ding options

• Gui"d understanding of micro( and macro("e#e" ena!"ing conditions

for adaptation

• Gui"d "oca" adaptation awareness and engage "oca" 3?Os,potentia" adaptation pro6ect imp"ementers-

Conclusions Applying the "L Approach:

What can it do for adaptation?

,Image Source: ?"o!a" =echanism for the 23CDD we!site http:KKwww.gm(unccd.orgKEng"ishKcti#itiesKEna!"ing.htm-.

http://www.gm-unccd.org/English/Activities/Enabling.htmhttp://www.gm-unccd.org/English/Activities/Enabling.htm


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Documents

1.Climate Change Vulnerability__An Overview