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7/27/2019 1b_Kleiman_Gary.pdf
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A Regional MARKAL Model
for New EnglandGary Kleiman
ORD Science ForumMay 18, 2005
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Energy/Economic Modeling Rationale
There is a tremendous need for sound energy & airquality planning at the state and regional level:
Combustion is a major source of precursors to troposphericozone and particulate matter (PM)
State Implementation Plans (SIPs) for criteria pollutant controlare due in 2007/2008
A variety of state and regional actions are possible: Transportation measures such as feebates, emissions standards Renewable portfolio standards
Important to evaluate and understand implications Multi-pollutant Cross-sector interactions
Economic impacts
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NE-MARKAL Modeling of Energy System
Energy System Interactions
Gasification
Renewables
H2 Generation
Coal
Coal
Imported
Domestic
Natural Gas
Electricity Generation
Industry
Industry
Buildings
Imported
Domestic
Oil
Uranium
Oil
Refining Transportation
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Focus of this talk
Sources of NOx in New England, 2002
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New England Transportation Demand Projection
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029
index
(1999
=
1)
LDV HDV Bus Rail Aviation
Historical Projection
Sources:
Historical record: State department of transportation officials (VMT), FTA - National Transit Database,ORNL Transportation Energy Data Book
Projection: NEEP Economic Outlook 2004~2008, EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2005
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Light Duty NOXProjectionsFixed Technology
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029
NOx
(indexedto
2005)
Fixed Technology
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Light Duty NOXProjections
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029
NOx(indexedto
2005)
Fixed Technology Technological Evolution
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Light Duty NOXProjections
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029
NOx(indexedto
2005)
Fixed Technology Technological Evolution
Technological Potential
How do we get closer to this?
t
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an we mprove auto e c encythrough state or regional vehicle
efficiency improvement programs (i.e.feebates)?
Fee on conventional technologies, rebate on cleanertechnologies (hybrid, FCV, etc)
Revenue neutral: amounts to redistribution of capitalcosts from less efficient to more efficient vehicles
Benefits are two-fold: consumer behavior and inducedtechnological change; MARKAL addresses the second
NESCAUM is analyzing a single tier feebate for all newpassenger vehicle sold in New England beginning in2008.
Pivot point: 22.7MPG
Rate: $1000/GP100M
Example:Vehicle Type MPG Fee/RebateLarge SUV 13 ($3,290)Large 2WD Pickup 18 ($1,150)
Mid-size Family Sedan 24 $ 140Car-Based Hybrid SUV 31 $1,180Compact Sedan 33 $1,370Compact Hybrid 47 $2,280
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Light Duty NOXProjections
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029
NOx
(indexedto
2005)
Fixed Technology Technological Evolution
Technological Potential Feebate ($1000/PG100M)
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Light Duty NOXProjections
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029
NOx
(indexedto
2005)
Fixed Technology Technological Evolution
Technological Potential Feebate ($1000/PG100M)
Feebate ($2000/PG100M)
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Light Duty NOXProjections
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029
NOx
(indexedto
2005)
Fixed Technology Technological Evolution
Technological Potential Feebate ($1000/PG100M)
Feebate ($2000/PG100M) Feebate ($3000/PG100M)
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Induced Technology Change
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029
mpg
reference feebate_1 feebate_3 feebate_5
small car
small truck
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Regional plans to beevaluated
Smart growth tax credit to reduce VMT
Regional feebate programs Low-sulfur heating oil
Renewable Portfolio Standards Combined Heat and Power (CHP)
incentive programs
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Conclusions NE-MARKAL allows for the analysis and
quantification of expected economic andenvironmental benefits of regionalprograms plus a description of thetechnology path to get there
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