Multiple Timeframe Trend Alignment

Long Natural Gas

Big Picture

• MCX Energy Index has made a breakout from its monthly and weekly pivots , The index has retraced 50% of the fall we witnessed since the peak of last year

• MCX Natural Gas current condition is volatile up • This price action reminds me of G-Man’s Pullback trade and levels

which comes for potential resistance in the uptrend are 395, however I have identified short term resistances 345-362 where supply “might” come in which also happens to be target 1 if G-Man was trading it, Prices made a new high of 371.2 today

• Daily 14 day volatility is greater than 20 day volatility average & 250 day weighted average which means the current environment has above average volatility and with ADX above 25

Intraday Fundamentals

• Frigid weather reports sent natural gas prices rallying on sentiments

• Demand will climb at thermal power plants to heat the region's homes and businesses.

• Speculation that this week’s supply data will show a larger-than-average drawdown in supplies also lent support. Early withdrawal estimates range from 212 billion cubic feet to 240 billion cubic feet.

• Indian Natural Gas near month contract is quoting at a premium to far dated contracts indicating backwardation

Technical Analysis

• 362 was a inflexion level , we opened above the resistance

• Index making monthly pivot breakouts and natural gas above resistance

• Multiple timeframes of indicators I track aligned

Trade Management

• Bid at 368 with a stop below 366.2

• Hit the bids at 371.2 which was the third limit up circuit today at 9% from previous days close

Limit Up

Intuition

• NO

Review

• I did a good job in reading the tape. • I identified 368 as the level where we had a seller with a held offer • I waited for the seller to lift in order to enter where demand would

have been confirmed • We were near support and I could have started the position at

366.5 or 366.8 with a stop below 366.2 and I could have added to the position when the held offer was lifted

• I adapted my trade plan , I exited at limit up instead of my trailing stop which in hindsight looks quite good as it was HOD

• I was calm in executing this trade • I CAN IMPROVE EVERYDAY - Observe , React , Adapt & Evolve