1994/95 11, 1995cfs.nrcan.gc.ca › bookstore_pdfs › 24600.pdf · 2010-12-22 · In response to this warming global precipitation patterns are also ... has increased in Canada and

GREEN PLAN CLIMATE CHANGE PROGRESS REPORT

1994/95

Canadian Forest Service

Climate Change'lnitiative

Regional Director General ........... A.D. Kiil

Team Leader ................... M.J.Apps

Working Group Chair ............. S.C. Zoltai

HQ Coordinator ............... R.B. Stewart

Lead Establishment Manager . . .. S.S. Malhotra

May 1 1 , 1 995

» >NO TE: This report is FOR INTERNAL USE ONL Y and should not be quoted. « <

CANADIAN FOREST SERVICE

GREEN PLAN: CLIMATE CHANGE INITIATIVE

1994/95 PROGRESS REPORT

I NTRODUCTION

There now exists strong scientific consensus that global climate wil l change sign ificantly over the next century as a result of increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxides and chloroflurocarbons (Houghton et aI . , 1 990, 1 992) . These gases are trapping a portion of the earth's infrared radiation and are expected to warm the planet by 1 .5-4.5°C. In response to this warming global precipitation patterns are also projected to change. Although there is general agreement on these conclusions there is large uncertainties in regard to the magnitudes and rates of projected changes at the regional scale.

Associated with these potential changes in the global climate are major changes in g lobal ecosystems. Of particular importance to Canada are what the l ikely impl ications are for forest ecosystems which play a significant role in the economic activity of Canada. Work by a number of researchers suggest that forest species ranges may shift significantly as a result of cl imate change corresponding to CO2 doubling. Work in forested ecosystems by Wheaton et a l . ( 1 987), for example, suggested that the southern boundary of the Canadian boreal forest could shift some 470-920 km north. Sargent ( 1 988) projected that losses of potential boreal-forest sites in the Canadian south could amount to 1 70 mil l ion ha, while gains in the north could amount to 70 mil l ion ha. Therefore the net loss of climatically suitable area for boreal forest in Canada would be about 1 00 mil l ion ha. Rizzo et al . 's ( 1 992) work for major North American ecosystems suggests major sh ifts northward as a consequence of potential warming.

In spite of the above noted efforts there considerable uncertainty exists in regard to the impl ications of cl imate change for g lobal and regional ecosystem responses and what these might translate to in terms of economic disruptions. Awareness of the issue of cl imate change has increased in Canada and its importance to the natural resource base in Canada. To address the various issues affecting the forest sector Natural Resources Canada - Canadian Forest Service (CFS) put in place its 5 year Climate Change Research In itiative in 1 991 -92. Sixteen projects were funded during the fi rst year. Funding constraints subsequently reduced the number of projects funded during 93/94 to thirteen. This report summarizes the project activity undertaken under the auspices of this program during 1 994-95.

STRATEGIC DIRECTION AND OBJECTIVES

Strategic Direction

When analyzing the possible impacts of climate change on Canadian forests, two fundamental science issues emerge: a) the sensitivity of northern forests to the anticipated cl imate changes, and b) the role of these forests in that change. The intent behind the Climate Change In itiative

» >NO TE: This report is FOR INTERNAL USE ONLY and should not be quoted. « <

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(CCI) is to provide improved understanding of the processes at work to obtain the information required to formulate appropriate adaptive and mitigative pol icy and management decisions.

The most immediate effects of climate change will be observed at the sensitive ecotonal boundaries of the boreal forest where species and associations are already at the l imits of their stress tolerance or competitive ability. The forests at the southern ecotone are perhaps most at risk because this is where the Canadian population density is the greatest. These forests are also important from a socio-economic viewpoint and are most amenable to mitigative intervention and adaptation.

In terms of a net storage pool for carbon, the changing role of the boreal forest with climatic shifts is a major concern. Will the boreal forest remain a sink or become a source of atmospheric CO2, the principal greenhouse gas? As conditions improve at the northern ecotone, the question arises whether the northern environment can develop fast enough to offset the potential losses in the south .

To address the central science issues, the Climate Change Initiative focuses on understanding the processes affecting forest productivity and the carbon balance across a North-South . transect from the parklands through the boreal forest to the subarctic woodlands. This transect research is referred to as the Boreal Forest Transect Case Study (BFTCS). Within this study process-oriented simulation modelling serves as the core element of the work. Existing and ongoing field research results will be incorporated into these models . In addition, some climaterelated issues that affect large regions are also being studied.

Objectives

The goal of this In itiative is to provide reliable answers to questions concerning the impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems which can be used as predictive tools to support decisions by forest managers and policy makers at all levels.

Specific objectives of the program include:

1 . Develop a set of models which predict the changes in forest ecosystem components, ecosystem disturbance regimes and successional patterns under a changing climate.

2 . Continue t o develop the Carbon Budget Model for the Canadian Forest Sector, by cal ibrating and validating a model that is sensitive to changes in climate.

3 . Develop climate-sensitive models of forest productivity , tree decline, insect infestations and other disturbance phenomena which can be linked to the main ecosystem.

4 . Cooperate with major international and national initiatives to investigate ecophysiological functions in the boreal forest.

5. Develop a Regional Climate Model that can be used for higher resolution projections of climate under doubled CO2 scenarios.


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The CCI is being funded as part of the federal government's Green Plan. Implementation began during 1 992/93 with 1 6 projects being undertaken by CFS staff across the country with a budget of $534,970.

In 93/94 due to funding constraints the budget was reduced to $441 ,000. In response to this funding decline three projects were discontinued. At the same time two new projects were added to the Program: Communications and BOREAS Allometry Data Collection. The former, resulting from reorganization of project 1 - Scientific leadership and coordination into two projects (scientific leadership and coordination and communications) ; the later, a new two year $1 50,000 project is being supported by additional funding from the CFS Green Plan Program. With these project changes and the additional funding from the Green Plan program 1 5 projects were supported with a budget of $491 ,000.

In 1 994/95, 1 5 projects were again being supported with an overall budget of $563,000. Fourteen ( 1 4) projects continued from 93/94 and one new project (Effects of Cl imate Change on Fire Frequency - Flannigan, PNFI) was added to the program.

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Table 1 provides a l ist of project titles and funding levels by year for all projects supported by the Cl imate Change In itiative from 1 992/93 to 1 994/95. Included is the proposed project funding levels for 1 995/96.

Appendix 1 outlines in more detail all projects being supported by the CCI . For each project a brief description is presented followed by the project's overall objectives, goals and progress for 1 994/95, highl ights of results achieved to date, and goals of work to be undertaken during 1 995/96 and beyond.

The Climate Change In itiative is a program funded by the governments Green Plan Program specifically put in place by the Canadian Forest Service to address the issue of cl imate change and its implication for the Canadian forest sector. The In itiative has been in place since late 1 991 . However, the CFS has been actively involved in addressing this issue with significant ongoing research underway since 1 987 (Appendix 2). Appendix 2, which is in the form of a publ ication l ist, provides a snapshot of all climate change related research undertaken by the CFS since 1 987.

REFERENCES

Hougton, J .T. , Callander, B .A. , and Varney, S .K. , 1 990. Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment. Cambridge University Press. pp. 365.

Hougton, J .T. , Callander, B.A. , and Varney, S .K. , 1 992. Climate Change 1 992: The Supplemental Report to the I PCC Scientific Assessment. Cambridge University Press. pp.200.

Rizzo, B . , and Wicken, E . , 1 992. Assessing the sensitivity of Canada's ecosystems to climatic change. Cl imatic Change 21 ( 1 ) , pp. 37-56.

» >NOTE: This report is FOR INTERNAL USE ONL Y and should not be quoted. « <

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Sargent, N . E. , 1 988. Redistribution of the Canadian boreal forest under a warmed cl imate, Cl imatological Bulletin, Vol 22(3) , pp. 23-34.

Wheaton, E .E . , Singh, T. , Dempster, R., Higginbotham, K.O. , Thorpe, J .P . , Van Kooten, G .C . , and Taylor, J .S . , 1 987. An Exploration and Assessment of the Implications of Cl imatic Change for the Boreal Forest and Forestry Economies of the Prairie Provinces and Northwest Territories: Phase 1 , SRC Technical Report No 21 1 , Publication No E-906-36-B-87, Saskatchewan Research Counci l , Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada.

FREQUENTLY USED ACRONYMS

CFS Establishments

FPMI Forest Pest Management Institute MR Maritimes Region NLR Newfoundland and Labrador Region NWR Northwest Region OR Ontario Region PNFI Petawawa National Forestry Institute PYR Pacific and Yukon Region QR Quebec Region

Other Terms

BFTCS BOREAS CBM-CFS CCI CFS CI DET GCM I BFRA I PCC NBIOME NSERC PSP RCM

Boreal Forest Transect Case Study Boreal Ecosystem Atmospheric Study Carbon Budget Model - Canadian Forest Sector Climate Change In itiative Canadian Forest Service

Canadian Intersite Decomposition Study General Circulation Model I nternational Boreal Forest Research Association Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Northern Biosphere Observation and Modell ing Experiment Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada permanent sample plot Regional Circulation Model


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Table 1: Summary of Green Plan Climate Change Initiative Funding ($OOO's)

Requested Adjusted Budget Budget Budget Budget Budget

Projectll nvestigator 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 95/96

1. Scientific Leadership/Coordination 108.1 82.50 82.50 85.00 79 (Apps, Zoltai, Malhotra, NWR; Stewart, HO)

2. Litter Decomposition (Trofymow, PYR) 33.95 19.40 22.00 22.00 21

3. Carbon Cycle Model (Apps, NWR) 85.85 99.91 103.60 103.60 100

4. Boreal Forest Response (Campbell, NWR) 55.29 69.84 75.00 75.00 73

5. Vegetation-Climate I nteraction (Hogg, NWR) 50.44 24.25 25.00 25.00 21

6. Peatland/Carbon Sequestration (Zoltai, NWR) 9.60 9.70 10.00 10.00 9

7. I nsects/Changing Climate (Fleming, FPMI) 12.70 19.40 15.00 15.00 13

8. CO2 EnrichmentlTree Growth ( Hogan, OR) 9.70

9. Regional Climate Model (Stocks, OR) 29.10 9.70 10.00 10.00 10

10. Litter M icroflora and Fauna (Duchesne, PNFI) 2.50 9.70 16.00 17.00 15

11. Crown Development Model ( Penner, PNFI) 19.40 19.40

12. Cl imate Stress - Sugar Maple (Robitail le, OR) 29.10 19.40 22.20 22.20 19

13. Eastern Hardwood Decline (Cox, MR) 29.10 14.55 17.20 17.20 15

14. Woody Tissue Respiration (Lavigne, MR) 29.10 24.25 20.00 20.00 17

15. Biochemical Stress Indicators (Titus, NLR) 19.40

16. Forest Floor Development (Weber, NLR) 11.64

17. Effects of CC on Fire Frequency (Flannigan, PNFI) 25.00 25.00 20

18. Communications (Malhotra, NWR) 19.00 20.00 20. 00 10

SUB-TOTAL 534.97 441.00 463.50 467.00 422

19. BOREAS Allometry Data Collection 50.01 100.002

(Apps, Campbell, Hogg, Hal liwell, NWR; Lavigne, MR; Penner, PNFI)

GRAND TOTAL 534.97 491.00 563.50 467.00 422

1 This project was in itiated in 1993/94 with allocation from Green Plan slippage 2 Funding requested from other Green Plan programming


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Project

APPENDIX 1

CANADIAN FOREST SERVICE CLIMATE CHANGE INITIATIVE:

PROJECTS GOALS AND PROGRESS FOR 1994/95 AND

GOALS FOR 1995/96

1 . SCIENTI FIC LEADERSHIP AND COORDINATION FOR CFS CLIMATE CHANGE PROGRAM - (Apps, Zoltai , NWR) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 . 1

2. CANADIAN I NTERSITE DECOMPOSITION EXPERIMENT (CIDET) -(Trofymow, PYR) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 .6

3. MODELLING THE ROLE OF NORTHERN FORESTS AND FORESTRY IN THE GLOBAL CARBON CYCLE I N A CHANGING CLIMATE - (Apps, NWR) . . . . . . . . . 1 .9

4 . MODELLI NG BOREAL FOREST RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE -(Campbell , NWR) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 . 1 4

5. VEGETATION-CLIMATE I NTERACTION MEASUREMENT AND MODELLlNG -(Hogg , NWR) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 . 1 7

6. LONG-TERM CARBON SEQUESTRATION IN CANADIAN PEATLANDS (Zoltai , NWR) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 .21

7. RESPONSES OF FOREST INSECT POPULATIONS TO A CHANGING CLIMATE - (Fleming, FPMI) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 .23

8. EFFECT OF FUTURE ENVI RONMENTAL CHEMICAL FACTORS ON JACK PINE NUTRITION, FITNESS AND GROWTH - (Hogan, OR) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 .27

9 . THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CANADIAN REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL -(Stocks, OR) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 .28

1 0 . EFFECT OF GLOBAL CHANGE ON SOIL MICROFLORA AND M ICROFAUNA -(Duchesne, PNFI) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 .32

1 1 . CROWN DEVELOPMENT MODEL - (Penner, PNFI) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.34

1 2 . EFFECTS OF CLIMATIC STRESS ON THE GROWTH AND METABOLISM OF SUGAR MAPLE ROOTS - (Robitai l le, QR) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 .35

» >NOTE: This report is FOR INTERNAL USE ONL Y and should not be· quoted. « <

1 3 . THE POTENTIAL ROLE OF CHANGING CLIMATE ON DIEBACK OF EASTERN HARDWOODS - (Cox, MR) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 . 37

1 4 . RESPONSES TO CLIMATE CHANGE OF WOODY TISSUE RESPI RATION -(Lavigne, MR) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 .41

1 5. B IOCHEMICAL COMPOUNDS AS INDICATORS OF STRESS AND THEIR I NFLUENCE ON SOME KEY ECOLOGICAL PROCESSES (Titus, N LR) . . . . . . . 1 .44

1 6 . FOREST FLOOR DEVELOPMENT - (Weber, NLR) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 .46

1 7. EFFECTS OF CC ON FIRE FREQUENCY - (Flannigan, PNFI) 1 .47

1 8. COMMUNICATIONS - (Malhotra, NWR) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 . 50

1 9. BOREAS BIOMETRY AND ALLOMETRY MEASUREMENT PROGRAM - (Apps, Campbel l , Hogg, Halliwell NWR; Lavigne, MR; Ft;:,lner, PNFI) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 . 52


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PROJECT 1 :

SCIEN'I1F.IC LEADERSHIP AND COORDINATION FOR CANADIAN8>REST SERVICE CLIMATE CHANGE PROGRAM

'" (Apps, Zoltai, NWR)

The Climate Change Initia'liveris a 5 year national program involving research projects at and scientific personnel from aIIiCanadian Forest Service research establishments. This project basically involves the management and coordination of research activities being undertaken in the implementation of this1lIDQram. Currently , the program involves 1 6 projects. As wel l , this project includes coordinatiDn.()f research being undertaken under this program with other national and international W!!Search activities on cl imate change and forests involving other organizations and goverl1ll8lt agencies, international organizations and governments. As such this project involvesJ:aDrdination activities l inked with:

BOREAS : BOReal EcosysBrl Atmospheric Study. A joint Canada - U .S . project, involving inten�ive field campaigns illr1;994 at two boreal forest sites (Nelson House, Manitoba, and Prince Albert National part,;.saskatchewan);

NBIOME : Northern Bios� Observation and Model l ing Experiment. A 1 0 year multidiscipl inary and interagency project to link observational databases to process modelling of disturbance patterns, vegelltion distribution changes and carbon sequestration in Canada's terrestrial ecosystems; _"fl

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I PCC ( Intergovernmentall3anel on Cl imate Change) ; and

IBFRA (the I nternational Bole a I Forest Research Association) .

Objectives:

1 . To provide scientific leadership and coordination for the national cl imate change research program.

2. To play a leadership and coordination role in international and interagency research projects at the planning, management and execution levels.

Goals and Progress for 1994/95:

1 . Continue as Team Leader for the National Climate Change research program), Project Leader for the regional Climate Change Project (Zoltai), and chair (Zoltai) and member (Apps) of the Climate Change Working Group (CCWG).

Apps continued as 'National Team Leader; other executive members were Kii l (Responsible ROG), Zoltai (Chair CCWG), Stewart (HQ Coordinator) , and Malhotra (Regional PM). -.

2 . Continue to serve on theEOREAS Executive Committee (BEX)(Apps) and to provide Field Officer support for BOREAS and BFTCS.


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Apps continued to serve on the BEX as wel l as the BOREAS Operations Group (BOG). Dr D Hall iwell was hired as BOREAS field Officer and supervised 1 994 field operations to complete Biometry and Allometry measurements on over 1 00 sites. Three reports have been prepared for submission to the BOREAS Information System. A poster was presented at the IBFRA Conference Boreal Forests and Global Change and a journal manuscript is in preparation.

3 . Act as Chair of I BFRA Carbon Budget Working Group(Apps). Apps acted as chair of the I BFRA Carbon Budget Working Group and or anized an expert workshop with participants from Russia, Holland, US, Canada, Austria, and Finland in Vienna.

4. Organize I BFRA conference: "Global Change and the Boreal Forest", Saskatoon, September 1 994. Act as Co-chair with Guy Brassard (HQ) (Apps).

A 5 day I nternational conference drawing more than 1 80 participants from 1 1 different Boreal forest nations, including China, was held in Saskatoon (Apps Chair) . The conference included a 2 day field trip to the BOREAS southern study area and Prince Albert National Park. Sponsors included the CFS-NWR, CFS-HQ, Royal Society of Canada G lobal Change Program, Weyerhauser International, PA Model Forest Association, and the province of Saskatchewan.

5. Act as Editor of peer-reviewed I BFRA Proceedings of "Global Change and the Boreal Forest" (Apps)

Arrangements have been made to publish peer-reviewed manuscripts presented at the conference in the international journal Water Air and Soil Pollution (Guest Editors: M Apps and D Price) and as a book published by Kluwer Academic Press. More than 45 manuscripts have been received and are being submitted to external peer review.

6 . Organize NATO ARW September 1 994, Act as editor of Proceedings and Peer-Reviewed book (NATO ASI series) (Apps)

Thirty of the world's experts on forest carbon cycle and forestry were convened for a 5 day advanced research workshop in Banff on The role of forests and forest resource

management in the global carbon cycle. Major sponsorship was received from NATO with additional support form CFS-HQ, Green Plan, the Royal Society of Canada Global Change Program and Environment Canada.

7. Continue to serve on the NBIOME Science Steering Committee and to act as the Team Leader for the BFTCS to ensure close coordination of BOREAS, BFTCS and NBIOME activities (Apps) .

Apps continued to serve on the NBIOME steering committee and to provide leadership for the BFTCS. A major NSERC submission on NBIOME was returned for revision and Apps continues to supp rt the NBIOME University Chair (Dr D Parkinson) in the resubmission of the NSERC proposal . The main activity on BFTCS was associated with BOREAS (See goal 2) Posters on BFTCS activity were presented at the International GCTE Science conference in Wood's Hole (M Apps and D Price) and at the I BFRA conference Boreal

Forests and Global Change (D Price and M Apps) . A journal manuscript is in preparation on this work.


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8. Continue to �resent CFS at the scientific level at international meetings (e.g . , I BFRA, I PCC, IGBP) (Apps) .

Significant input was made by CCWG members to various international meetings. Apps and Stewart have represented CFS science at several lPCC Workshops (in Wood's Hole, Forteleza Brazil , and in Vienna). Apps and Price have participated in a number of IGBP-GCTE workshops and conferences (including Woods Hole, Apeldoorn, Seattle and San.J=rancisco). Apps was chair of the first I BFRA science conference which was held in Saskatchewan.

Added goals far 1 994/95:

9 . Prepares public BOREAS brochure (Stewart and Apps) A;public brochure on BOREAS was prepared (and funded) by CFS for distribution by the BOREAS community . This brochure has been very widely distributed.

1 0 . Prepare and circulate an annual Green Plan Cl imate Change Progress report A progress report for 1 993/94 was prepared and circulated to all establ ishments (Zoltai , Stewart). This report documents an impressive l ist of scientific publications by CFS in the climate change literature.

1 1 . Hold meeting of PI 's in CFS Climate Change program to review progress and future plans

A one-day review meeting was helped in Saskatoon in conjunction with the IBFRA conference. Most of the CFS PI's participated in the review. It was agreed ttiat some form of program peer review should take place in spring 1 996.

Highl ights of Progress to Date:

Two highly successful international conferences ( IBFRA 94 and NATO ARW) were organized and conducted. Work is in progress to publish the manuscripts from both these meetings in the peer reviewed literature. A total of 8 reports and other publ ications have been completed during the year. In addition work is well underway for the peer-review and publication of two major books: • Boreal Forests and Global Change (Editors: Apps and Price; Publishers : Kluwer Academic

Publishers) and • The Role of Forest Ecosystems and Forest Resource Management in the Global Carbon

cycle (Editors: Apps and Price; Publishers: Springer Verlag Academic Press)

The BOREAS project, for which CFS has played an important role, has enjoyed an extremely successful experimental year culminating in a major BOREAS conference in Wil l iamsburg Virginia that was attended by a number of CFS scientists (including Price, Hall iwel l , Lavigne and Stewart). The new BOREAS field Officer (Dr 0 Hall iwell) has successfully guided a large crew of summer students to completion of biometry measurements on more than 1 00 sites. The resu lting database provides important ecological baseline data for BOREAS and also represents a unique and valuable set of data for ongoing cl imate change studies on the BFTCS. The University of Madison was independently funded by NASA to perform allometry measurements so, to avoid duplication of effort, the CFS biometry crew (under Hall iwel l's supervision) merely provided field assistance and redirected most of the resources originally planned for allometry to improved Biometry coverage on the BFTCS.


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Numerous invitations to participate in international workshops and meetings indicates very high exposure in the international community by the CFS cl imate change in itiative. Although modestly funded, the in itiative has resulted in CFS scientists being actively involved in the planning and execution of several international programs, including: BOREAS (BOReal Ecosystem Atmosphere Study), the IGBP ( I nternational Geosphere Biosphere Program), GCTE (Global Change and the Terrestrial Environment) , IBFRA ( International Boreal Forest Research Association) and I PCC ( Intergovernmental Panel on Cl imate Change).

At the national scale, CFS scientists have been interests and expertise have been represented in a number of National workshops, meetings, and programs. These have included participation on the Royal Society's L-TERM Long-Term Ecological Research and Monitoring Panel) and acting as major contributor to various University-based programs, including the UQAM Tri-council research proposal , NBIOME, BOREAS and more recently, the proposal for a National Centre of Excellence proposal on Sustainable Forest Management being coordinated by the University of Alberta.

Goals for 1 995/96:

1 . Continue as Team Leader for the National Cl imate Change research program) , Project Leader for the regional Cl imate Change Project (Zoltai) , and chair (Zoltai) and member (Apps) of the Cl imate Change Working Group (CCWG).

2. Continue to serve on the BOREAS Executive Committee (BEX)(Apps) and to provide Field Officer support for BOREAS and BFTCS.

3 . Continue to act as Chair of IBFRA Carbon Budget Working Group and additionally, act as the Canadian representative on the l EA ( International Energy Agency) Special Task Force on Green House Gas Emission and Bioenergy (Apps).

4. Act as Guest Editors (Apps and Price) for peer-reviewed Special Issue of international journal Water Air and Soil Pollution on "Global Change and the Boreal Forest"

5. Act as Editors (Apps and Price) for peer-reviewed book (Springer-Verlag) on The role of forests and forest resource management in the global carbon cycle. in the NATO ASI series.

6. Act as CFS point-of contact for the proposed National Centre of Excellence (NCE) program on Sustainable Forest Management (University of Alberta), continue to serve on the N BIOME Science Steering Committee, and to act as the Team Leader for the BFTCS, to ensure close coordination of NCE, BOREAS, BFTCS and NBIOME activities (Apps) .

7. Continue to represent CFS at the scientific level at international meetings (e.g . , I BFRA, I PCC, IGBP) (Apps).

8. Participate in the 1 995 I BFRA conference (Apps, Price)

9. Prepare and circulate an annual Green Plan Cl imate Change Progress report

1 0 . Make preparations for Program review in 1 996.


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Tentative Goals for 1 996/97 and Beyond:

1 . Coordinate results of program peer-review and revise the CFS National Cl imate Change Action Plan as required (Apps, Stewart, Zoltai, Malhotra, vice-KiiI) .

2. Continue to provide effective leadership and management coordination for the CFS Cl imate Change initiative(Apps, Stewart, Zoltai, Malhotra, vice-Kii l) .

3 . Continue to provide Field Officer support for BFTCS and to serve on BOREAS Committees as appropriate (Apps).

4. Continue to provide CFS science support for climate-change related international programs such as I PCC, IGBP, I BFRA Carbon Budget Working Group, and the l EA ( International Energy Agency) Special Task Force on Green House Gas Emission and Bioenergy.

5. Continue to provide CFS science support on climate-change related national programs such as the proposed National Centre of Excellence (NCE) program on Sustainable Forest Management (University of Alberta) , NBIOME, and to act as the Team Leader for the BFTCS, to ensure close coordination of NCE, BOREAS, BFTCS and NBIOME activities (Apps) .

6 . Continue to prepare and circulate an annual Green Plan Climate Change Progress report.


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PROJECT 2 :

CANADIAN INTERSITE DECOMPOSITION EXPERIMENT (CIDET) (Trofymow, PYR)

-imate change has the potential to have large impacts upon the continued productivity and 'health of Canadian forests. As well , current and future forest management practices could mluence the course of climate change through their influence on the terrestrial carbon cycle -1be sequestration and release of C in forest biomass and soils. In order to understand the lErtential interactions of climate and forests, several projects are underway to model the

.namics of the various C pools (eg . Kurz et al. 1 992, Price and Apps 1 992) . During the Development of these models it was found that for many of the processes, information is . ited. In particular, data on rates of decomposition have been found lacking in extent and -ength, some forest types have been studied extensively, others not at all and long-term studies are rare, most less than three years.

CtDET is a cooperative project involving 1 5 researchers from CFS, universities, and provincial inistries investigating the long-term rates of litter decomposition and nutrient mineralization

DArer a broad range of forested ecoclimatic regions in Canada. The 1 8 upland sites and 3 �ired lowland/wetland boreal forest sites chosen include sites in the BFTCS and BOREAS 1X'Oject, Batoche, Prince Albert and two each at Nelson House and Gil lam. Experiments are being conducted using 1 1 types of leaf litter and wood samples, selected from a range of forest "types. At each site , four replicate 1 5m2 plots have been established and 1 0 sets of 1 2 bags ( 1 0 itilter types and 2 standardized wood samples) laid out at approximately 1 m intervals i n each ..,t. One set of bags will be removed a random from each plot each year for 1 0 years for analysis of: weight loss and C, N, P, S content. The initial nutrient content and organic C fictions in each litter type are to be characterized.

�Iationships between decomposition dynamics and the governing factors (substrate qual ity, cl imate variables, soil temperature, and moisture etc. ) wil l be established using regression 1echniques. Data from the study will be made available to participating researchers. The data would also be available for calibration of ecosystem models and specific models of litter decay and turnover.

Objectives:

1.. Provide data on the long-term rates of litter decomposition and nutrient mineralization for a _. range of ecocl imatic regions in Canada.

2. Examine the role substrate quality and climate have on long-term decomposition rates.

3. Examine the relative importance of site factors and microcl imate on decay rates .

4'. Test the influence that site moisture regimes have on decay rates.

5 . Test specific hypotheses on the patterns of litter decay.

; » >NO TE: This report is FOR INTERNAL USE ONL Y and should not be quoted. « <

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Goals and Progress for 1 994/95:

1 . Complete site, soil description and soil chemistry databases and update cl imate data. Distribute ind ividual site reports.

S ite , soil description and soil chemistry databases mostly completed and climate data updated to July 1 993 for all stations, Dec. 1 993 for some. Site reports distributed to al l cooperators for checking and final addition of missing data, August 1 994.

2. Update litterbag database and distribute results of 1 st sample. Litterbag weight and chemistry database updated for 1 st sample and results distributed to al l cooperators, June 1 994.

3 . Conduct 2nd litterbag collection. Requests for 2nd sampling distributed , coNections to complete, Dec 1 994.

4 . Complete weights and chemical analysis from 2nd collection. Weight an� chemi�al analysis of 2nd sample to be complete by March 1 995.

5. Submit l itter characterization manuscript for publication. Paper on l itter quality chemistries to be presented at IBFRA meeting Sep 1 994 and manuscript submitted for publ ication in proceedings.

6. Complete project establishment report . Publish pending funding. Part of the draft text and tables for the report completed Ju ly 1 994, with the exception of data for some sites which is sti l l missing . Remaining data for project establishment should be supplied by all site cooperators by December 1 994. Anticipate report publication in 1 995-96.


CI DET is a cooperative project involving 1 5 researchers (D. Anderson, C. Camerie, L. Duchesne, J . Fyles, L. Kozak, T. Moore, I. Morrison, C. Prescott, S. Smith , B. Titus, R. Trowbridge, S. Visser, R. Wein, D. White, S. Zoltai , C. Preston) from Canadian Forestry Service, universities, and provincial ministries investigating the long-term rates of litter decomposition and nutrient mineralization over a broad range of forested ecoclimatic regions in Canada. The 1 8 upland sites and 3 paired lowland/wetland boreal forest sites chosen include 6 sites in the BFTCS and BOREAS project, 3 sites adjacent to LRTAP plots, two sites with ongoing NSERC studies and two sites with BC Ministry of Forests studies. The experiment, established in 1 992, involved the preparation and placement of close to 1 1 ,000 litterbags comprised of 1 0 sets of 1 2 l itter treatments in each of four replicate plots at each of the 21 sites. One set of bags will be removed from each plot each year for 1 0 years for analysis of: weight loss and C, N, P content. In addition to the 22 litter types characterized for nutrient content and organic C fractions as part CI DET, 1 1 other l itter types have been characterized as part of an NSERC funded study (Prescott) and the complete set of data from both studies will be publ ished in a single paper.

Relationships between decomposition dynamics and the governing factors (substrate qual ity, climate variables, soil temperature, and moisture etc. ) will be established using regression


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techniques. In addition to the data analysis as part of CI DET, data would also be available for calibration of ecosystem models such as the CBM-CFS or other models of litter decay and turnover. The successful establishment of C IDET complements similar studies underway in the US and Sweden. Proponents of the US study have expressed interest in using CIDET results for testing models under development. Presentations on C IDET at CSSS, C IF , NMR and other workshops have received great interest and also generated requests for information to set up a similar study in agricultural systems.

Goals for 1 995/96:

1 . Update site, soil and climate databases. Distribute site reports.

2 . Update litterbag database and distribute results of 2nd sample.

3. Conduct 3rd l itterbag collection.

4. Complete weights and chemical analysis from 3rd collection.

5 . Analyze 1 st year results to test for site and l itter type effects.

6 . Implement and conduct model runs using litter qual ity data, 3D-year and 1 st year climate data and compare to 1 st year results.

7. Plan group workshop for 1 996-97.


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PROJECT 3 :

MODELLING THE ROLE OF NORTHERN FORESTS AND FORESTRY IN THE GLOBAL CARBON CYCLE IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

(Apps, NWR)

Human activities have upset the world's carbon balance through fossil fuel use and removal of active biological carbon sinks (deforestation and other land use changes) . An increasingly important question to Canadians is the extent to which our forests are part of the problem or can be part of the solution. This question has three parts: 1 ) how much carbon is currently stored in Canadian forests; 2) how much do they currently contribute to the atmospheric budget; and 3) how will these carbon storage pools and exchanges be influenced by climate change and forest management.

Objectives:

To provide the best available estimates and predictions of northern forests' contributions to the g lobal carbon budget in a changing environment by:

1 . developing a quantitative model l ing framework within which to capture the changing state-of-the-art science knowledge and data;

2 . developing modelling approaches supported by field studies and data synthesis t o evaluate the effects of resource management strategies on the carbon sequestration potential of northern forests for incorporation in the model l ing framework;

3 . adapting existing gap-phase dynamics succession models and ecophysiological response models for incorporation in the modell ing framework to assess the changes in carbon sequestration potential of northern forests to possible changes in the g lobal environment;

4 . interfacing these models to large scale data accumulation programs (such as remotely sensed data) to assist the detection and interpretation of global changes.

Goals and progress for 1 994/95:

1 . Prepare journal manuscript( s) on retrospective 1 920- 1 989 analysis of Canadian forest carbon budget.

One manuscript has been submitted and accepted for publication in Tellus. A second manuscript has been resubmitted to Nature. A third manuscript is in preparation for Water, Air and Soil Pollution (Kurz and Apps).

2 . Test algorithms for representation of contagious meso-scale processes and their influence on structure and function at the landscape level. Apply to BFTCS and prepare journal manuscript describing the resu lts.

A spreadsheet model was developed to test algorithms. Posters were prepared and presented at the GCTE Science Workshop in Woods Hole (Apps and Price), and at the I BFRA Conference, Saskatoon (Price and Apps) .


-1 . 1 0 -

A manuscript on the BFTCS is in preparation for submission to Water, Air and Soil

Pollution (Price and Apps) . A second manuscript on contagious processes is in preparation for submission to Ecological Modelling (Price and Apps).

3 . Investigate the effect of contagious processes on spatial patterns in the boreal forest using the large scale model of landscape ecosystem processes. Prepare journal manuscript.

A model was developed to investigate effects of contagion on spatial and temporal patterns . A journal paper (L i and Apps) was revised and resubmitted to Ecological Modelling.

4. Complete development of object oriented CBM-CFS . Development of the object oriented CBM-CFS is substantial ly complete and the revised model is now running (60 times faster) on a UNIX platform .

5 . Complete the representation of site-specific and ecophysiological processes, and apply to the BOREAS sites.

Model concepts were prepared in collaboration with BOREAS modelling working group. The CFS modelling program was presented at BOREAS workshops in Montana

.

(February) and Prince Albert (July). A manuscript on effects of cl imate change scenarios on boreal forest structure and function was submitted to Climatic Change (Price and Apps).

6. Collaborate with the European Forest Institute (Joensuu, Fin land) in the assessment of carbon budgets for European Forests.

Apps was a named collaborator and co-applicant on a major proposal for a northern Europe carbon budget assessment submitted by EFI to the European Economic Community.

7. Contribute to the development of a carbon budget for circumpolar boreal and temperate forests .

A workshop was organized (Apps) at I IASA to establish a circumpolar carbon budget network (See Project 1 , goal 3). In addition to the Joensuu project (goal 6), Apps has been named to the scientific steering committee of the Dutch national carbon budgeting project.

8 . Prepare papers on "The role of forest in the global carbon cycle: an overview" and "Boreal forest: retrospective and projective carbon analysis" for the NATO Advanced Research Workshop.

Presentations on "The role of forest in the global carbon cycle: an overview" and "Boreal forest: retrospective and projective carbon analysis" were made and extended abstracts published in the Book of abstracts for The Role of Forest Ecosystems and Forest Resource Management in the Global Carbon Cycle (see Project 1 , goal 5). Manuscripts are in preparation for peer-review as chapters for the NATO ASI book (publisher Springer-Verlag) .


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Added Goals for 1 994/95:

9. Continue the development of a Foothil ls Model Forest C budget. A poster was presented at the Foothil ls Model Forest public meeting in H inton. A paper was presented at the NATO ARW on a comparison of effects of alternative management on C dynamics. A manuscript is in preparation for submission to the peerreview as a chapter for the NATO ASI book (publisher Springer-Verlag) .

1 0 . Assess the application of the CBM-CFS at a provincial scale. Two workshops were arranged in conjunction with the BC Ministry of Forests and CFSPFC to evaluate the possible use of the CBM-CFS2 for BC. A strong recommendation to proceed with publication of the BC results was received in the peer-review workshop comprised of BC experts . This wi l l mark the first t ime that provincial results, extracted from the national-scale simulation, will be written up for publication and this will be done in partnership with provincial authorities.

1 1 . Develop a framework for including process-based representation of peatland carbon sequestration In the CBM-CFS.

An expert workshop was held in Edmonton and a draft manuscript prepared as a blueprint for incorporating peatland processes in the CBM-CFS.

1 2 . Submit for publication "A soil profi le database with organic carbon data for non-agricultural mineral soils in Canada" as an information report (Siltanen et. al . ) .

soil analyses from over1 400 pedons have been compiled from the non-agricultural reg ions of Canada. a computer database has been created and screened and contains over 7000 described soil horizons. preliminary analyses and summaries have been prepared . written report has been prepared.

Highlights of Progress to Date

Major publication goals were met this year: more than 2 dozen manuscripts (including more than 1 2 peer-review journal manuscripts) were submitted or published during the year. Of particular merit was the simulation of the retrospective carbon budget of Canadian forests over the past 70 years which has resulted in several journal publications and submissions. I n addition project staff (Apps and Price) are Editors of two peer-reviewed books scheduled for publication in 1 995 (See Project 1 , goals 5 and 6).

Originally developed for national-scale application, the CBM-CFS model is now being applied and tested at several smaller spatial scales: the provincial scale (BC), the regional scale (BFTCS) and the forest management unit (Foothi l ls Model Forest). In addition, first steps have been taken to apply the model structure at the circumpolar scale in the context of the International Boreal Forest Research Association (See also project 1 , goal 3) .

The CBM-CFS has been recoded in Object Oriented C++ and now operates on the SPARC workstation at 60 times faster than on a PC. Apart from this OOPS recoding, CBM-CFS model development has been put on 'hold' to give priority to applications and the development of


- 1 . 1 2 -

process-level approaches. Of1he latter, the most notable are the theoretical studies on disturbances influences and landscape-scale (BFTCS) dynamics. In addition , a well-thought out framework for the representatibn of peatland carbon sequestration processes has been developed, the implementation of which will be undertaken in the next two years.

The reception of the CBM-CFS. results on retrospective analysis of the Canadian forest carbon budget by the world-class paTticipants of the NATO Advanced Research Workshop on The Role of Forest Ecosystems and Fomst Resource Management in the Global Carbon Cycle gave significant impetus to the application of the CBM-CFS2 at the circumpolar scale and in the coming year, this 'upscaling'lR>blem will be given increased importance. Nationally, the CBMCFS2 is still being regarded _�the starting model framework ('strawman') for the forest biome as well as for the carbon integration of wetland, forest and agricultural biomes within N BIOME.

Goals for 1 995/96: �

1 . Prepare journal manuscript(s) documenting the CBM-CFS2.

2. Continue the development;and testing of landscape-scale (BFTCS) representation of ecosystem dynamics (baEd on FORSKA, FLAMM , BORFOR or similar) .

3 . Compare the simulation 1I!Suits of goal 2 with the BOREAS biometry data (project 1 ) .

4 . Complete and publ ish manuscript on the influence of contagious processes on landscape dynamics .

5 . Working with the I IASA Siberian forest data set, initiate the application of the CBM-CFS2 to Russian forest and othernorthern European forests (See also Project 1 , goal 3) .

6 . Evaluate the potential l inkages between the landscape scale (BFTCS) carbon budget model and the CFS fire working group through expert workshop and/or consultations . One of these wor shops should attemptto use smaller scale climate variables (compatible with the Local Area Model simulations ofproject 9) to define present and future disturbance regime scenarios.

7. Continue the application and testing of the CBM-CFS2 to the foothil ls model forest.

8. Complete the peer-review� editing and publication of two books: • The Role of Forest Ecosystems and Forest Resource Management in the Global

Carbon Cycle (Springer-Verlag Academic Publishers). • Boreal Forest and Global Change (Kluwer Academic Press).

9 . Publ ish the soil carbon database for non-agricultural soils as an information report.


1 . Complete the integration of process-level dynamics in the ful l CBM-CFS.


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2 . Continue the application of the CBM-CS at smaller-than-national scales: Provincial, BFTCS and forest management units.

3 . Assess the feasibi l ity and need for the development of Carbon indicator Decision Support Tools at the different policy scales (based on the science of the previous goal) .

4 . Continue to evaluate Canadian forest sector's contribution to the global carbon budget by developing better l inkages with national database structures to provide annual carbon indicators.

5. Assess Canada's contribution to the global carbon relative to other boreal forest countries by completing the assessment of circumpolar carbon budgets in three stages: a) snapshot results of contemporary pools and fluxes; b) retrospective assessments for the period since the start of the industrial revolution and c) projective assessments under alternative scenarios of climate change, land-use and forest sector policies.

6 . Implement the _Peatlal}d -forest ecosystem carbon model framework in the CBM-CFS.

7 . Integrate the CBM-CFS within a total terrestrial ecosystem model by adding wetland and agricultural components (As in NBIOME).

8 . Evaluate the potential changes in Canadian forest carbon pools and fluxes under different scenarios of future climate.


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PROJECT 4:

MODEl..LlNG BOREAL FOREST RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE � (Campbell , NWR)

Forecasts of equilibrium vegetation d istributions in Canada under double CO2 scenarios (which could occur withinr:iO years) predict an expansion of the aspen parkland and prairie grassland communities, and 'ii depleting area of productive boreal forest (Zoltai, 1 988). Increased temperatures and�expanded growing seasons could result in increased growth rates, but soil nutrient l imitations and changing precipitation patterns may l imit or reverse this response. Other climate-related factors such as wildfires and insect attacks are also expected to increase, with a major impact on regional productivity in the boreal forest. Because of these complications it is a major challenge to �redict the transient response of the boreal forest and associated biomes over the next cen1JJry.

Objectives:

Develop forest ecDsystem-

model(s) that reflect forest productivity and composition across a . climatic gradient in the boreal forest, suitable for predictions of forest changes under changing environmental and disturbance conditions, by:

1 . Selecting and modifying available gap models and developing a similar model which responds to climate under boreal forest conditions;

2. Generating a regional boreal forest model composed of local gap models to predict forest composition and productivity changes;

3. Examining the-:effects of forest management on the predicted productivity under changing cl imatic conditions.


1 . To complete analyses of Pine Lake core. a alyses have been completed; one ms. is in press, others are in preparation.

2 . To complete pol len analyses of PA fen, St. Laurent fen , and Nelson House fen. analyses have advanced, but have been delayed due to unexpected workload in other areas (see #7 below).

3 . To complete dendrodensitometric analyses of Mackenzie transect, Pine Lake, Amisk Lake, Hector Lake, and other suites currently in stock.

The Pine Lake suite is to be collected during the winter of 1 994/95; the other suites are wel l advanced in the analytic process and completion is expected before the end of 1 994/95.

4 . To complete manuscripts currently in preparation. several manuscripts have been completed.


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5 . To complete climate, plot resizing, liD, and stem removal modules of model. 110 module is presently under construction; a growth module will be developed during December 1 994 and January 1 995 with the assistance of Alexander Shashkin (Krasnoyarsk) and Hal Fritts (Tucson). Stem removal and climate modules are also expected to be completed before the end of 1 994/95.

6. To investigate potential of PA fen for long-term tree-ring chronology. The potential appears to be very high. First results suggest that a chronology covering several hundred years can be developed from this site without unusual difficulty, and that several thousand years of record may be available. This l ine of investigation will be put on hold pending additional resources.

7 . To provide densitometric services to BOREAS biometry and allometry (estimate -2000 samples).

over 3000 samples have been received , and more are expected. This increased workload, while taking time from other activities , represents an opportunity for a great deal of valuable information on growthlclimatelcompetition relationships in the boreal forest, and-is welcomed. All the BOREAS material is expected to be processed before the end of 1 994195.

.

8. To investigate the role of fire in regulating the southern margin of the boreal forest. Fire appears to be overrated in controll ing the southern margin of the boreal forest during late prehistoric times; prel iminary research (manuscript In Press) suggests ungulate activity and drought may have been more important.


A l ink has been established between lake area variabi l ity (an index of groundwater table variabil ity) , climate, and vegetation in the southern boreal forest and northern grassland (Campbell , Campbell , and Hogg , in Geographie physique et Quaternaire 1 994) .

S ignificant improvements have been made to the x-ray densitometry facilities, increasing throughput and reliabil ity, and also developing a product which is now being considered for marketing.

Evidence has been found suggesting that bison activity l imited the southward expansion of the aspen parkland during prehistoric time, and that the recent expansion of the aspen parkland is due at least in part to the near-extinction of bison (Campbell , Campbell , Blyth, and McAndrews, in press in Ecography).

Reanalysis of grain-size data from Pine Lake suggests that it can be used as a proxy for stream discharge, and would thus indicate that the climate of the 'dustbowl' era was really the longterm (4000+ years) average for this region.


- 1 . 1 6 -

Goals for 1 995/96:

1 . To use BOREAS and other x-ray densitometry data to develop allometric carbon storage relationships for boreal species.

2. To complete a fi rst working version of the whole boreal forest model.

3. To market DendroScan software.

4 . To publish Pine Lake material as well as other palaeo-material in stock.


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PROJECT 5:

VEGETATION-CLIMATE INTERACTION MEASUREMENT AND MODELLING (Hogg, NWR)

General circulation models (GCM's) predict that continued increases in CO2 levels will lead to warmer air temperatures and a probable decrease in soil moisture in the Canadian boreal forest. The rapid predicted change in climate would be unprecedented since glaciation, and the productivity and distribution of existing forest vegetation types in the boreal forest could be drastically affected. Such changes would have profound implications for the conservation, uti lization and regeneration of Canadian boreal forest resources.

Forests located near ecotones are l ikely to be the most sensitive to climate change. On a regional level , two major ecotones form the boundaries of the present-day boreal forest. I n the south , the boreal forest forms an ecotone with the aspen parkland, while the northern edge of the boreal forest forms a broad ecotone with subarctic forest-tundra vegetation. I t is generally assumed that low precipitation l imits tree growth and distribution in the south, whereas tree growth is strongly l imited by low temperatures (growing degree days) and permafrost in the north. These assumptions largely form the basis of current predictions that the zone of maximum boreal forest productivity will move northward in response to warmer and drier climates.

This study is using a combination of field research and computer modell ing toward the objective of predicting the potential impacts of g lobal climate change on the productivity and distribution of the western Canadian boreal forest. The initial focus is on the southern l imit of the boreal forest which is where the first major impacts of climate change are most l ikely to occur.

Objectives:

1 . To concurrently measure ecophysiological and climatic processes as a means of identifying and quantifying the most important factors control l ing primary production and distribution of major vegetation types along the SW to NE cl imatic gradient in the boreal forest.

2. To develop a process model to enable prediction of future changes in forest productivity in existing vegetation types in response to various scenarios of climate change.

3. To develop models that l ink smal l-scale physical and ecophysiological processes to canopy level processes and canopy exchange of CO2, water and energy and to test these models in field sites that represent near-boundary conditions of boreal forest tree species in terms of regional climate and soil microclimate.

4 . To develop l inkages between our ecophysiological process model and other models of boreal forest responses to climate change (e.g . , disturbance/succession models and the regional Carbon Budget Model).


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Determine the relative importance of climatic moisture regimes governing tree growth and regeneration by:

1 . Continuing concurrent measurements of ecophysiological and microcl imatic processes in the aspen parkland at Batoche (Hogg and Hurdle) ,

Monitored sap flow (transpiration) and microclimate during the growing season at Batoche (4 sites x 3 aspen) , Measured photosynthesis on 3 days and conducted pilot study to measure aspen canopy transpiration by eddy flux correlation. Leaf area biomass by major species was measured using l itter traps for leaf area index determinations.

2. Using the results at Batoche to improve the functional realism of the ecophysiological simulation model (Hogg and Hurdle) ,

To be r") ducted this winter following analysis of field data. Changes will incorporate . more real is_tic sto�atal responses to vapour pressure deficit based on sap flow data.

3. I n itiating col laborative ecophysiolog ical research on aspen and spruce-aspen mixedwood at two intensive BOREAS sites in the boreal forest and participating in three BOREAS I ntensive Field Campaigns (Hogg and Hurdle, with M. Lavigne and others),

Participated in the 3 BOREAS field campaigns, monitored sap flow and microclimate during the growing season at the BOREAS tower site in Prince Albert National Park (8 aspen) , and at the BOREAS mixedwood site near Candle Lake (4 aspen, 4 spruce).

4. Using exist ing, climate data ( 1 880's-present) to estimate past temporal changes in climatic moisture regimes at sites where climate change research is being conducted (Hogg).

Climate data were obtained, and a climate moisture index suitable for temperature and precipitation data was developed ( I UFRO paper in press) . The index is being applied to 4 sites (Batoche and 3 prairie conifer plantations) for tree-ring analyses of growth responses to past drought.

5 . Conducting a second year of field surveys of regeneration from planted conifers across climate gradients in Saskatchewan (Hogg and Schwarz) .

Field surveys were completed. Fifty new sites were surveyed, giving a total of 1 00 completed sites along 5 transects for this study (Hogg and Schwarz). Manuscript is in preparation .

6. (added goal) : Present papers and seminars at conferences and workshops. Six presentations and two media interviews have been g iven since March 1 994, including one conference plenary presentation (Can. Meteorol . and Oceanogr. Society, Ottawa) and two papers ( I UFRO and IBFRA meetings, St. John's and Saskatoon) .


The overall findings continue to reveal the importance of moisture deficits (drought) in control l ing the productivity and distribution of the boreal forest and aspen parkland in western Canada. An analysis of climate-vegetation relationships indicated that the present distribution of


- 1.19 -

the boreal forest is generally restricted to areas where annual precipitation exceeds potential evapotranspiration (Hogg, 2 papers in press). This suggests that large areas of the southern boreal forest may be vulnerable, if the predicted climate changes occur. A process-oriented climate moisture index was developed in 1 994 to quantify interannual variation in moisture conditions for forest growth using the existing climate record.

The intensive monitoring site in the aspen parkland at Batoche was established in 1 992 to examine the functioning of a forest that has a drought-prone climate, similar to that predicted for the southern boreal forest. Results are being used to adapt the Forest-BGC model for the aspen parkland. In 1 994, improvements were made to the sap flow instrumentation (Hurdle) , two new sites were monitored within BOREAS, and sapwood area at all sites was determined to al low quantitative estimates of canopy-level transpiration. Both 1 992 and 1 993 were wetter than average summers, but several dry periods occurred, permitting a preliminary assessment of responses to moisture deficits in boreal stands of aspen and mixedwood, and in the aspen parkland. Some highlights of the 1 994 season include:

i) . aspen canopies "leak" a Sign ificant amount of water vapour on dry nights, and thus could lose water during the day even when stomata are closed (e.g. during drought) ;

i i) successful implementation of a solar-powered system at Batoche to measure canopy level transpiration by eddy flux correlation in August 1 994;

i i i ) tree ring analysis of 75-year old aspen at Batoche indicate that severe drought years in the past caused a reduction in radial growth by up to 90%, and that reduced growth continues for up to 1 0 years following drought.

The second year of the seedling surveys now provides a sufficient sample size to show that conifer regeneration is dramatically reduced under the dry climates found in the grassland and southern aspen parkland regions. In contrast, good growth of mature conifer plantations in the grassland region was found based on preliminary analysis of the tree-ring data. These results suggest that seedling regeneration, rather than growth of existing trees, may be the most important issue for the southern boreal forest, if the predicted climate changes occur.

Goals for 1 995/96:

1 . Continue intensive measurements of microclimate, ecophysiological and canopy level processes at Batoche, with an emphasis on understanding the effects of exposure (wind and drought) on aspen growth and water use efficiency. This work will be supplemented by the results of tree-ring analysis of aspen from contrasting microsites at Batoche and other locations in the aspen parkland .

2. Continue to participate in collaborative BOREAS research for the second, fol low-up year (specific objectives to be determined during the BOREAS workshop in December, 1 994)

3 . Complete study on the growth and regeneration of planted conifers across climate gradients in Saskatchewan .


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4. I nitiate study of white spruce seed dispersal and regeneration in relation to climatic and microclimatic conditions (in collaboration with V.J . Lieffers, University of Alberta).

5. Prepare and publish manuscripts for publication.


1 . Complete intensive research at Batoche and continue monitoring of the most important processes.

2 . Continue field studies and develop model of conifer seed production, dispersal and establishment in relation to clime:. .• variabil ity and microclimatic conditions.

3 . Conduct a thorough review of BOREAS research to identify knowledge gaps, particularly in the north (Thompson-Gil lam), and initiate appropriate studies and experiments. Effects of climate change of fire frequency in the Southern boreal forest.


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PROJECT 6 :

LONG-TERM CARBON SEQUESTRATION IN CANADIAN PEATLANDS (Zoltai, NWR)

Peatlands are major terrestrial ecosystems where atmospheric carbon is sequestered for very long term storage. About 40% of the Boreal and Subarctic regions of Canada are covered by peatlands, storing vast amounts of carbon each year in the form of peat. About 9-30% of the total biomass of peatlands eventually becomes peat; the magnitude of variations depends on the kind of peatland and climatic regime.

Examination of plant remains in the peat gives indication of the dynamics of the peatlands since their inception thousands of years in the past. This knowledge can serve as an indication of possible changes due to the anticipated climate change.

The analysis of pollen and other biotic remains in the peat can provide indications of past climatic conditions and vegetation development through the past mil lennia. This would provide important information on vegetation-cl imate interactions, stability of vegetation, and rate of adjustment to changing conditions that occurred in the past. Paleoenvironments can serve as analogs to assess the possible effects of climate change on the vegetation .

Objectives:

1 . Determine the long-term rate of peat accumulation in different types of peatlands in a north-south transect in west-central Canada, including the BOREAS sites.

2 . Create analogs for interpreting climate-vegetation interactions under the expected changing cl imate scenarios, using biotic remains present in the peat cores.


1 . I nvestigate and sample permafrost peatlands in north-central Saskatchewan and Alberta. Six sites were cored and documented in Alberta.

2. Prepare manuscript on paleoenvironments of peatlands at the prairie l imit . Manuscript entitled "Permafrost distribution in peatlands of west-central Canada during the Holocene warm period at 6K a" has been prepared and accepted by Geographie physique et Quaternaire;

3 . Prepare for publication data on the size of carbon sink in peatlands of west-central Canada. Paper enti lted "The role of forested peatlands in the global carbon cycle" has been presented at NATO Advanced Science Workshop, and is being published; Paper entitled "Forested northern wetlands of North America" has been presented at I nternational Symposium on the Ecology and Management of Northern Forested Wetlands, August 29-31 , 1 994, Traverse City, M ichigan, and is under peer review for the proceedings;


- 1 .22 -

acted as co-editor and prepared overview entitled "Past climatic change and the development of peatlands: an Introduction" to be published in a book by Kluwer Academic Publishers.


Work conducted in cooperation with University of Alberta (Dr. D .H . Vitt) along the southern l imit of permafrost occurrence shows that these permafrost bodies are unstable and are degrading. Tree ring studies and rate of peat accumulation indicate that accelerated thawing started around 1 850 and is continuing to the present. Old air photos ( 1 920's) substantiate this observation. Instrumented climatic data were examined from the fringe permafrost area (Prince Albert and The Pas); these data show a warming trend of 1 .0 and 0.5°C since the turn of the century.

Proxy climate obtained through ostracod analysis from two sites show the end of the Holocene warm period around 4000 B .P . and the simultaneous southerly expansion of the Boreal Forest. This c.oincided with peatland in itiation in this region. Data from the Turtleford fen is expected to reinforce this finding, and -perhaps extend it into the Holocene warm period.

Examination of permafrost cores from peatlands in the Boreal and Subarctic regions show that most peatlands were developed in non-permafrost conditions, and permafrost affected them only later, beginn ing about 4 .5 Ka BP. This shows that the climate was warmer and drier prior to this time and permafrost was scarce. In the Mackenzie Valley the Holocene warm period was perhaps 2 to 3°C warmer than at present. With the cool ing of climate permafrost affected increasingly large areas of peatlands. This meant that these frozen peatlands no longer sequestered carbon, but released CO2 as the surface peat decomposed, resulting in a negative carbon balance in the north . In the south , however, the moister climate promoted the growth of peat-forming vegetation, contributing to a positive carbon balance in the peatlands.

Goals for 1 995/96:

1 . I nvestigate and sample permafrost peatlands in north-central Saskatchewan.

2. Prepare manuscript on short term rate of peat accumulation, and on carbon/nitrogen ratios in the surface layers of different kinds of peatlands.


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PROJECT 7:

RESPONSES OF FOREST INSECT POPULATIONS TO A CHANGING CLIMATE (Fleming, FPMI)

Each year in Canada forest pests destroy an average of 90 mi l l ion cubic metres of commercial timber. Canada's forests will come under increased stress if the predicted climate changes take effect. Damage patterns caused by insects may be drastically altered, especially for the many insects whose occurrence in time and space is severely l imited by climatic factors. This possibility substantially increases the uncertainties associated with the long-term planning of pest control requirements, with hazard rating models, with depletion forecasts, and with projections for the sustainability of future timber supplies.

Less immediately obvious are the additional uncertainties associated with pest control methods and ecosystem integrity. To minimize environmental impact, much effort is currently going into designing ever more specific pest control products and strategies. Since, it can take years to design specific controls for a particular pest, it is important to provide sufficient lead time before a presently innocu-ous insect achieves the status of a major pest as a result of climate chang�. Moreover, because insect damage affects the rates of various processes in nutrient and biogeochemical cycl ing, potential changes in damage patterns can affect considerations of ecosystem integrity and resil ience.

There are two interdependent thrusts to the research conducted by this project. One concerns the concept of biological indicators; the other focuses on predicting how the occurrence of important forest pests might be affected by the projected climate changes.

Biological indicators: Insect development rates are potential ly very useful indicators of the biological impact of climate change because they integrate the effects of a variety of cl imatic variables (e .g . , temperature, humidity, cloudiness) which , taken individually, are relatively poor indicators of potential biological impact. In this research, recent historical data is searched for evidence of the trends in these rates expected as a result of greenhouse warming over the last 25 years. This provides quantitative measurements of the degree to which insects have actually responded to the warming experienced over the last 25 years. These measurements also constitute an essential basis for calibrating the predictive models discussed below.

Prediction: Prediction requires the construction of models describing insect development rates as functions of climatic variables. Using the projected changes in climate (eg . detailed predictions of g lobal circulation models) as input, these proposed climate-based models of insect development rates could forecast the effects of climate change on insect development rates. Such forecasts permit inferences to be made about changes in the distribution of major (and potentially major) insect pests in time and space. For instance, new regions could be identified where the insect could comfortably complete its developmental cycle in the future if the projected changes in climate occur there. Since the geographic range of many insects is l imited by climate, this wil l provide guidelines about potential changes in insect distribution as a result of climate change. Range expansion by insects could provide them with access to particularly susceptible forests. These forests may be particularly susceptible if the defences of their trees are unadapted to this insect, having never experienced it before, or if their defences are already weakened by the physiological stress imposed by climate change.


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The research conducted by this project contributes to the BFTCS and is l inked to other studies in the Green Plan, Climate Change In itiative. These studies include efforts to construct models of crown development, of boreal forest response to climate change, and of the role of northern forests and forestry in the global car' on cycle.

Objectives:

1 . To develop methods for examining historical data of insect phenological development for indications of climate change.

2 . To derive a practical approach for using historical field data to construct models which predict insect development rates as functions of climate variables.

3. To design a strategy for using these models to forecast the effects of projected changes in climate on the range and development of particular insect pests.

4. To employ these models in this strategy to forecast the effects of projected changes in climate on the range and development of a group of insect case studies selected across the nation. Note: due to funding shortfal ls, this objective has been narrowed to representative insects associated with the BFTCS region . Hence, it should now read: To employ these models in this strategy to forecast the effects of projected changes in cl imate on the potential range and development of important insect case studies in the region of the BFTCS.

5. To have the methodology in place so that it can be transferred to various other selected insects as the need arises.

6. To collaborate in establishing l inkages with the Crown Development Model (Penner-Lavigne), Campbell's GAP Model, and App's Carbon Budget Model .


1 . To further consolidate connections with the BFTCS, the Crown Development Model , and the Carbon Budget Model by conducting the field program in itiated through collaboration with Jan Volney (CFS-NWR) to collect the data necessary to develop predictive models of phenological development for important pest species in the region associated with the BFTCS.

The field program was continued by collecting data for the large aspen tortrix (LA T) on sites near the BFTCS sites.

2. When sufficient data hav een collected, investigate the most promising approaches to describing phenological dE Jopment as a function of emperature.

It has been decided tha the most practical approach towards formulating phenological models of insect development will be to relate the field data on insect phenology to degree-day accumulations.

3. Update the data set for biological ind icators to provide a stronger statistical basis for establishing trends.


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The data set has been updated to include meterological data from the 1 6 stations associated with the 1 6 sampling sites. Light trap data from 8 moth species has a lso been added to give the analysis a broader scope. The latest values from the moth, aphid,;;and meterological databases have all been included.

Highl ights off.'rogress to Date:

A theoretical s/ItJdy of simple forest-pest systems showed (a) that invasion by a few pests into a forest ecosysiern with a stable distribution of tree ages could produce large oscillations in the age structure Df the tree population, and (b) , that slow changes of environmentally determined parameters (e.'g. , due to climate change) could make the forest vulnerable to previously unimportant ;ests .

. :.:

Issues in the mnstruction of predictive models have been addressed. Procedures for using survey data m :validate large- scale models of forest pest population dynamics were developed. The problem 'scaling-up' process-based models was also examined. A structure of hierarchically sted models operating at different spatial and temporal scales (Le . , a 'nested-grid approach') was suggested as one possible solution.

" , .

Work on biological indicators has proceeded by examining daily records of insects trapped by the Rothamsted Insect Survey over the last 25 years. Preliminary analysis of these records indicates that1tle phenology of the insects studied has moved forward by about one week on average during this period. This corresponds to a range extension of about 2-30 latitude northwards. (D1Jring these 25 years, the northern hemisphere's mean surface temperature has increased steadily [R=O.62, P=O.0007], but by only about OACo) .

Goals for 1 915/96:

1 . Continue iO collect field data to develop predictive models of phenological development for important l'est species in the region associated with the BFTCS. This should lead to further consolidation of the connections between this study and the BFTCS, the Crown Development Model, and the Carbon Budget Model .

2 . Investigate the possibil ity of obtaining supporting development and degree-day data for the large aspen tortrix from Alaska and the Northwest Territories.

3 . As these data accumulate, to relate them to degree-day accumulations in formulating models to describe phenological development as a function of temperature.

4 . Amalgamate climate data with biological indicator data and begin final stage of analysis.


1 . Develop predictive models of phenological development for the most important pest species in the region associated with the BFTCS.


- 1.26 -

2. Use the projected changes in climate in the region of the BFTCS as input for these models in order to forecast the potential changes in the range and development of these insects.

3 . Complete analysis of climate - biological indicator interaction .

4 . To collaborate i n establishing l inkages with the Crown Development Model (Penner-Lavigne) , Campbell's GAP Model , and Apps' Carbon Budget Model .


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PROJECT 8:

;: EFFECT OF FUTURE ENVIRONMENTAL CHEMICAL FACTORS O N JACK PINE NUTRITION, FITNESS A N D GROWTH

(Hogan, OR)

CLJ1'rent indications are that the earth's climate is changing. GCMs suggest that we are entering a period of rapid environmental change. Environmental chemical factors are changing as wel l . Available data shows that atmospheric levels of CO2 are on the increase and based on papulation growth projections, and NOx emission trends, for North America it seems reasonable to propose that nitrogen deposition will continue to increase. The sum of these effects may be that in the future, Canada's forests will be exposed to a significantly different emrironment in terms of atmospheric CO2 concentration , nitrogen deposition and perhaps cation availabil ity. I ndividual species may respond to this mix of factors through changes in gl'DllWth, health, and range. Forest systems, of all types, may respond to the nature and magnitude of these new conditions through changes in species abundance and diversity.

'. � � ... ·- f .. .

Jack pine systems- tend to be characterized by soils of low N fert i l ity , low base saturation and high acidity. As such , they are sensitive to nutrient loss and dependent to some extent on

.

atmospheric inputs of N . If current atmospheric conditions prevail, nitrogen, and base cation le_s may continue to be critical to jack pine growth particularly as carbon dioxide levels inaease. The suggestion has been made, that tree growth will increase as a result of elevated camon dioxide levels, at least in juvenile trees. The growth response to carbon dioxide fettUization will not occur, however, if the abil ity of the site to supply other key nutrients is sLJb.<optimal. Predictions of growth and decisions for management of forest systems in Canada with jepend on our knowledge of how native species respond to an altered set of environmental clenical variables, and to other site specific variables that are controll ing growth.

°biectives:

The present study has four main objectives related to the issues raised above:

1 . . To determine the effect of future environmental chemical factors (N supply, CO2 level, base cations) tree growth rate, biomass al location and key physiological processes under

'controlled conditions . ','

2 . '. To determine the relationships (through review of existing data) between nitrogen and base cation d istribution on cutover sites, current inputs losses from the site , and availabil ity to, or

.: utilization by, crop species.

3. To determine the relationship between nitrogen treatment and physiological performance of } outplanted trees when exposed to drought.

4. To develop the predictive capabil ity to forecast the physiological response of jack pine to elevated CO2, altered levels of internal N , and altered physical environment.

Goals and Progress: Project was discontinued at the end of the 1 992/93


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PROJECT 9:

THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CANADIAN REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL (Stocks, OR)

Over the past decade a number of General Circulation Models (GCM's) have been developed, primarily in the United States but also in Canada and the United Kingdom, in an attempt to understand and model the forces determining the earth's climate. GCM's consist of equations representing the physical concepts of conservation of mass, energy, and momentum , and describe the atmosphere and oceans with a large number of discrete points for which forecasts of temperature, pressure, water (for the atmosphere) , and salinity (for the oceans) are made. These forecasts permit the calculation of clouds, wind, precipitation, and the exchange of energy between the biosphere, hydrosphere, and geosphere. While the present generation of GCM's are highly sophisticated and require modell ing theory and computing power at the limit of current capabil ities, they sti l l have a number of weaknesses and uncertainties, primari ly coarse spatial and temporal resolution and an inadequate representation of the role of clouds in energy balance. D_espite these weaknesses GCM's are the best means available today for estimating future cl imates, and are being heavily util ized to predict the climatic impact of risin.g levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases, resulting from anthropogenic activities. All GCM's predict a significant warming of the earth's atmosphere, particularly at higher latitudes, within the next 50-1 00 years. Scientists in many disciplines, including forestry, are moving quickly to address the issue of the impacts of this projected climate warming.

The global nature of GCM's places a l imiting demand on computer resources, resulting in a severe l imitation on the maximum resolution obtainable, even with today's supercomputers. An adequate projection of the impact of g lobal warming on the forest resource in Canada requires m uch greater spatial and tem poral resolution than the current generation of GCM's provide. Even the GCM produced recently by the Canadian Climate Centre, which is considered superior to some of the earlier models, only offers outputs on a 400-500 km grid , much too coarse when compared to ecosystem dimensions. While future generations of GCM's will undoubtedly produce higher resolution predictions, as computing capabilities continue to expand, there is a strong need at this time for increased resolution if future long-term forestry impacts are to be accurately anticipated so that planning can be undertaken. The development of Regional Cl imate Models (RCM's) offers an interim solution to this problem - providing an opportunity for higher resolution projections for selected regions throughout Canada. RCM development involves the nesting of a regional l imited-area model within a g lobal GCM, in a manner simi lar to regional weather forecasting . The GCM provides time-dependent lateral-boundary conditions to the nested regional model, and the RCM can be adjusted to match the needs and resolution requirements of the user, depending on the computing power available. With its l imited-area design, the RCM will provide greatly enhanced resolution over a selected region, but wil l also be a general purpose tool which will be readi ly applicable to a number of cl imate change issues, over essential ly any selected region, s imply by providing the required surface parameters for the region.

Under a Collaborative Research Agreement between Natural Resources Canada - Ontario Region (B .J . Stocks) and the Physics Department at the University of Quebec at Montreal (UQAM) , Professor Rene Laprise has been supervising an undertaking to nest a semiLagrangian, non-hydrostatic regional model within the Canadian Cl imate Centre (CCC) GCM .


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The fluid dynamics portions of this regional model had been developed, but physical parameterization was required before it could be embedded in, and run in synchronization with, the CCC GCM. Development of the RCM has been a collaborative project involving two scientists at UQAM (Laprise and Blanchet) and two scientists at the Canadian Climate Centre (Boer and McFarlane), although this research activity also serves as a focal point for a number of MSc and PhD theses within the UQAM Physics Department. This is a long- term project, and appl icable results were not expected for the first few years. The developmental stage required the development of a large amount of software in order to properly embed the mesoscale model within the GCM, and it was estimated that it would be late 1 994 before the first coupled simulation would be complete.

NRCanada (Canadian Forest Service) Green Plan funds have been used to support this research effort for the past four years. The Climate Change Component contribution has been 30K in 1 99 1 -92,25K in 1 992-93, and 1 0K in 1 993-94 and 1 994-95, while the Fire Management Component contributed 1 OK in 1 993-94 and 1 994-95.

Objectives:

1 . To modify a regional mesoscale climate model and nest this model within the CCC GCM in a manner that permits enhanced climate predictions.

2 . To use this GCM to provide higher resolution projections of climate under a doubled CO2 scenario for selected forested regions across Canada.


1 . Conduct a one month integration of the RCM with in the CCC GCM . A first integration was completed in May 1 994. After the identification and correction of a few weaknesses within the RCM, a second one-month integration was completed in August 1 994.

2 . I mplement GCM-I I I physics with in RCM. Planned for late 1 994 and early 1 995.

3 . I mplementation of the RCM on the CRAY supercomputer. The implementation and testing was completed in May 1 994, and the one-month integrations were run on the CRA Y supercomputer at the University of M innesota.

4 . Develop stationary and transient eddies diagnostics utilities for RCM. The second version of UNIX scripts required to carry out this task was completed in August 1 994. Launching scripts were also streamlined to later facilitate the detailed comparison between GCM and RCM simulations.

5. Further develop interpolation algorithm of GCM and RCM simulated fields to forest climate station locations, for use in collaborative (with Stocks and Martell) investigations of fire occurrence and behaviour prediction for NW Ontario under a 2xC02 cl imate .

A special ized utility (gg@stn) has been developed to interpolate GCM data defined on a local ized window of a Gaussian latitude-longitude grid to specific station locations.


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Preliminary validation rJf the interpolator on a subset of the data has been performed. The software was delivered to Dave Martel l and Brian Stocks in July 1 994.

Highl ights of Progress to Dille:

During the first three years of1bis project, Dr. Laprise and his associates made significant progress, achieving and even surpassing their annual goals. These achievements were documented in previous annual reports. They included the projection of the GCM geophysical fields onto the computational 1ll9sh of the RCM , the transfer of the physical parameterization algorithms of the GCM into tte1RCM, restructuring of the RCM to al low efficient long-term integrations with the GCM, ther;:ldaptation of diagnostic tools for data analysis, and the implementation of the CCC GCM physics into the RCM by converting the GCM-I I main program into an RCM subroutine. A 1 ().cjay simulation of the RCM coupled with the CCC GCM at 90 km resolution, and a 2 .5 day simulation at 45 km resolution, were successfully completed in 1 993. The benefits of the increased *solution, in comparison to the coarse 450 km resolution of the GCM, were most impressive imthe moisture fields where realistic fine details develop less than a day after initial iz�tion with Cl¥lrse-grained GCM fields.

Over the past two years, the CK'Ie-way nesting strategy has been validated . Canonical mountain-wave s imulations have also been performed to further validate the model. Variable vertical resolution has been ifC)rporated into the model, as well as a number of m inor changes. A thorough documentation reprort on the dynamical and numerical formulation of the RCM/MC2 has been produced (Bergeroll Laprise and Caya 1 994) . The GCM-I I physical parameterization package has been implementetJ in a novel fashion to facil itate upgrades to later versions of the GCM physics. The archival scheme of the RCM has been developed to be fully compatible with the CCC GCM. The extensive c:liagnostic l ibrary of the CCC has been upgraded to al low analysis of RCM-simulated rESlllts .

Small workshops have been held annually at UQAM to summarize progress and plan further work. Prel iminary results of the RCM have been presented at a number of scientific forums. An article is in preparation descri.bjng a three-month winter simulation of the RCM.

Goals for 1 995/96:

1 . Continue improvement of accuracy and efficiency of the numerics of the RCM, including improvements to the ell iptic solver.

2. Implementation of GCM/MAM (Middle Atmosphere Model) physics in RCM to extend integrations above 30 km tleights.

3. Further development of diagnostic facil ity for RCM-simulated results, including the calculation of Fourier spectra in a l imited-area RCM , estimation of the effect of horizontal resolution on surface fluxes, and the calculation of transfers between the various forms of energy in RCM simulations.

4 . Simulation of mesospheric mountain waves, and analysis of momentum interactions between large-scale (GCM) and mesoscale (RCM), in collaboration with York University.

» >NO TE: This report is F,OR INTERNAL USE ONL Y and should not be quoted. « <

- 1 . 3 1 -


1 . Multi-year simulation with annual cycle of RCM-I .

2 . Application of RCM-simulated results to study fire occurrence in northwestern Ontario (col laboration with Dave Martell and Brian Stocks).

3. Complete 1 xC02 and 2xC02 simulations of RCM-1 , using GCM-simulated archived mixed-layer SSTs.

4. Implementation of ocean mixed-layer and interactive sea-ice modules to model the Great Lakes in RCM (collaboration with J-P Blanchet, UQAM).


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PROJECT 1 0:

EFFECT OF GLOBAL CHANGE ON SOIL MICROFLORA AND MIC ROFAUNA (Duchesne, PNFI)

Undoubtedly g lobal warming wi l l alter soi l chemical , physical and biological conditions. However, the possible effects of climate change on forest productivity, particularly soil processes and fertil ity are unknown. It is important to understand both the mechanisms and the results generated by climate change in order to forecast forest productivity. Carabid beetles are good integrators of a large amount of ecological data because they are important carnivores of forest floor and so, Carabid beetles (Carabidae: Coleoptera) can be used as biological indicators of ecosystem modifications modulated by climate change.

In addition to modifying forest productivity, climate change may also alter ecosystem resil ience and or stability after disturbance, particularly fire disturbance. Previous studies have determined that carabid assemblages respond rapidly to forest site modifications. However, it is not known whether climate change will alter the abil ity of ecosystems to sustain d isturbance.

Objectives: �

( In 93/94 report : ) 1 . Compare Carabid: be � e assemblages in undist rbed Jack Pine stands located near Nelson

House, Manitoba anc, rince .Albert, Saskatche n .

2 . Compare the effect of forest fire on Carabid assemblages in these two locations.

(Objectives as revised) 1 . Determine the effect of climate change on biodiversity


I n 93/94 report 1 . Continue establishing a model for the germinatin of jack pine under different moisture

regimes. This model will be to forecast the effect of climate change on the boreal forest.

2 . Continue acquiring data from the Frontier Lake experimental site on the effect of fire on litter decomposition.

3 . Develop a model for the regene(btion of black spruce under cl imate change.

Goals as revised after consultation with CCWG: 1 . Establish a model for the germination of jack pine under different moisture regimes. This

model wil l help forecast the effect of climate change on the boreal forest. An empirical model for the effect of moisture regime, duff thickness and shading on jack pine and red pine germination were created and the results submitted for publication by Forest Ecology and Management and Canadian Journal of Forestry Research, respectively.

2. Establish the effect of fire on residual litter decomposition and compare to clear-cutting.

» >NOTE: This report is FOR INTERNAL USE ONL Y and should not e quoted. « <

- 1 . 33 -

3. Establish a model between woody debris size and decomposition rate A second year of data on the decomposition of different woody debris and litter types was collected and we are now getting ready to col lect our last batch of samples. So far, the data collected demonstrates clearly that decomposition is affected by leaf litter types, size of woody debris and charring.

4. Establish a model for the t!ffect of climate change on white pine and balsam fir germination data is now being collected for the effect of climate change on white pine germination.


1 . A preliminary model for the germination of jack pine has been created. It shows the relationship between germination of jack pine, soil moisture (rainfall) and duff thickness following fires of different ·severity . The approach was based on the use of 350 soil monoliths and in situ seeding experiment under green house conditions. Results demonstrate clearly the influence of ashes generated by fire on Jack pine germination and a strong relation�hip be�een moisture regime and germination .

. -

2. Data is sti l l being collected on the decomposition of different woody debris and litter types for the third year. The material for the second year of decomposition was analyzed in the summer. Consistent with 1tle first year of data, the second year showed clearly that decomposition is affected j)y treatment, leaf litter types, size of woody debris and charring.

3 . Preliminary data was aCqLIired on the effect of climate change on black spruce germination.

Goals for 1 995/96:

1 . Establish the effect of fire on the evolution of carbon from post-burn jack pine ecosystems in the boreal forest.

2 Evaluate the effect of latitudinal gradient on soil carabid diversity in jack pine post-fire communities.


1 . Create a general model for the effect of climate change on carbon evolution from different forest types.

2 . Create a general model for the evaluation of cl imate change on soil diversity.


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PROJECT 1 1 :

CROWN DEVELOPMENT MODEL (Penner, PNFI)

Trees contain a large proportion of woody biomass which contributes structure and support to the tree and also provides transport of some of the requirements and products of photosynthesis. Crown size and shape influence the interception of l ight (and thus photosynthesis) and competition between individuals.

The annual production of foliage and fine roots have been l inked to one another by the principle of a functional balance. The functional balance predicts that the product of root-specific activity and fine root quantity is proportional to the product of fol iar-specific activity and fol iar quantity. These rates of activity are l ikely to vary along a climatic gradient and examining the interactions should lead to improved predictions of tree response to changing climate.

The spatial distribution of foliage production over the crown and the loss of foliage affects the crown shape and size. The depth of new fol iage is also related to stem height development. Prediction of the depth of new foliage can thus lead to predictions of height growth and thus of a tree's crown status (relating to its competitive position) which in turn leads to predictions of the fol lowing year's photosynthate production. Using depth of foliage to predict height development should yield better results than al locating stem biomass increment to diameter and height increments.

This study is l inked to flux studies (e .g . photosynthesis, respiration, etc.) , to regional carbon and productivity models, and to successional models being developed with in other projects being undertaken with the Climate Change In itiative. The results of this investigation looking at a component of tree development will be incorporated into some of these models.

Goals and Progress:

Project was discontinued at the end of 1 993/94.


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PROJ ECT 1 2 :

EfFECTS OF CLIMATIC STRESS ON THE GROWTH AND METABOLISM OF SUGAR MAPLE ROOTS

(Robitai l le, QR)

Over the last half century there have been several hardwood tree and forest declines in eastern North America. Reaently, a widespread dieback has occurred in sugar maple in Quebec. This dieback coincided with an extreme climatic event in the winter of 1 980-81 . A very warm spel l , lasting over two weeks, resulted in complete snow melt and induced sapflow/budbreak. I t was fol lowed by a relatiefy long and cold period. During the following season widespread dieback of sugar maple was evident. This sequence of events probably increased frost susceptibility as a result of tissue rehydration and caused deep soil freezing resulting in frost damage to twigs and roots, and possibIYJ:avitation.

We formed a hypothesis that climatic extremes, such as deep soil freezing, has a direct impact on sugar maple heath, growth, and metabolism. We developed a project to study the relationships between deep soil freezing (with an added effect of drought) and the effects on the fine root system, and the subsequent water stress.

.

I n this experiment _ selected 24 dominant and co-dominant sugar maple trees. The trees were subjected to various treatments: 1 ) absence of snow cover, 2) thin snow cover, 3) thin snow cover plus induced summer water stress, 4) control . The experiment yielded die back symptoms: reduction of bud dimensions, delayed bud burst and leaf expansion. Both root growth and leaf surface area show a good correlation between cold treatment and reduced growth. Cold treatments also resulted in reduced spring sap flow, but sap flow returned to normal as soil temperatures returned to normal .

It was found that abBcisic acid (ABA) is sign ificantly higher in the spring sap of cold treated trees than in the control . We believe ABA to be a good marker of cold stress in apoplastic water. I t possible use as drought stress signal wi l l be evaluated by further tests.

Objectives: �

The general project. ()bjective is to test the hypothesis that climatic extremes (deep soil freezing) has a direct inciderEe on sugar maple vitality, growth, and physiology. It is proposed to study the relationship between deep soil freezing and the concomitant soil desiccation, and the effects on the root system of sugar maple. The all important effects on the above ground parts of the trees are also considered. Both the biological and biochemical aspects of the production of secondary plant products are investigated. From this, cause/effects relationships could be determined between experimentally applied stresses and decl ine symptoms. Response thresholds could then be fitted to h istorical data suspected of initiating known but unexplained declines. Data can also be input into recently developed models that predict effects of different snow cover depths on soil temperatures. These models could be extended to predict biological effects on trees.


- 1 . 36 -


1 . Participate with R . Cox in experimental work on young sugar maples from families of ind ividuals varying in sensitivity to root freezing to determine sensitivities to winter thaw".

Plants are growing.

2. Perform experiments on the hardening and dehardening of sugar maple and make relationships to susceptibi l ity of this species to decline.

Hardening tests are underway and we should have some result in December. Dehardening tests should start in the spring . Results should be interpreted in the summer.

3 . Begin the fine tuning of the ForSTeM (Forest Soi l Temperature Model) and ForHyM (Forest Hydrology Model) models in collaboration with P .Arp.

F. Meng (UNB) will spend a month in our laboratory in November to start the fine tuning of the ForSTeM model based on our accumulated data ( 1 990-1 993) and on new data acquired thJs winte.r The new data was obtained on an hourly basis.


The initial field experiment was performed in the winter of 90/91 and partly repeated in the winter of 9 1 /92. Significant effects of cold stress were observed on the growth and metabolism of sugar maple. It is highly probable that sugar maple decline may be related to temperature extremes. Increases in plant secondary compounds such as abscisic acid were noted. Quebrachitol (an inositol) was isolated and identified. It is hypothesized that this compound may play a role in the second stage hardening of sugar maple. We have an important data bank (1 990/present) relating precipitation, air temperature, soil temperature, soi l water content, soi l solution chemistry (nutrients, leaching), plant growth to the amount of snow on the ground. This data bank is to be used to estimate climate change effects on productivity (biomass) and nutrient cycling in hardwood forests.

Goals for 1 995/96:

1 . Complete the hardening and dehardening experiments on sugar maple seedl ings.

2. Continue modell ing exercise in collaboration with Dr. P . Arp (UNB) .

Tentative Goals for 1 996/97 and Beyond :

1 . Complete the modell ing exercise for the hardwood forest and start extension to coniferous forest with data from the Montmorency Basin.


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PROJECT 1 3 :

THE POTENTIAL ROLE OF CHANGING CLIMATE O N DIEBACK O F EASTERN HARDWOODS

(Cox, MR)

It has been stated, that changes in the variability of weather and the frequency of extreme events , wil l in general , have more impact on biota, than smaller changes in the mean land surface temperatures at any particular location . These extreme events have been implicated in many large scale tree declines. Although there is no evidence that variability in the climate will increase in the future, the potential effects of this important scenario should be studied.

Cooling effects of sulphate aerosol plumes from industrial centres in the northern hemisphere combined with the general warming due to the greenhouse effect is l ikely to increase climatic variabil ity. With an increase in mean g lobal temperature, felt more at higher latitudes, especially in winter, it is not unreasonable to postulate increases in the frequency and the duration of winter �haws oyer large areas of Canada.

This study was carried out to determine the parameters and effects necessary to model the dieback responses of birch species to durations of realistic simulated winter thaw. Further more this would be a test of the hypothesis that a natural thaw in March , 1 930, may have triggered the 1 930's birch decline in eastern Canada and New England.

Objectives:

To produce a fundamental model of the effects of winter thaw regimes on the d ieback of different tree species.


1 . In itiate a physiologically based empirical model of tree dieback responses to simulated winter thaw duration using the data for paper birch and sugar maple in collaboration with Dr. Arp and F. Meng (UNB) .

meetings have taken place with Dr. Arp and h is associates to generate a theoretical approach to modelling tree die back in response to winter thaws. He is preparing a proposal to develop an empirical model using the data derived to date. This model is a lso tied to a simi lar model dealing with winter root temperatures and aspects of Sugar maple decline being developed by Dr. Robitialle at LFC with Drs. Arp and Meng at UNB.

2 . Determine the effects of late summer exposure to ozone on dieback responses to simulated winter thaw durations in maple or birch .

the effects of the thaw treatments on the maple experiment of Feb. 1 994 was overwhelmed by a natural thaw (Feb . 1 9-20) with record temperatures (>24°C) which killed both the test plants and the controls. The data on degree day accumulations and bud expansion were logged for use in the modell ing exercise. Efforts were transferred to completing the scoring and analysis of the xylem cavitation effects of treatments in the birch experiment.


- 1 . 38 -

an experiment is now under way to examine the effects of simulated winter thaw on two-year-old yel low birch using 20 of the specially designed chambers that wil l create a range of thaw conditions. Treatment effects on bud expansion and xylem conductivity will be determined on one set of samples. While, recovery of xylem conductivity, bud expansion, growth and dieback wi l l be followed on samples placed in the greenhouse to recover. Attempts to follow sap flow wil l also be made this year as this parameter may be useful to the modelling exercise.

3. Determine changes in pyrolytically determined secondary plant products due to treatments as possible indicators of plant stress.

due to fiscal restraints the costly determinations of potential phenol ic indicators of stress were omitted from the study of yellow birch.


Twenty double polythene walled climate control led chambers have been developed. The chambers had air �elivered at temperatures according to the daily curve representing a thaw day. Treatments consisted of 5 different durations of consecutive simulated thaw days, chosen to span the approximate growing degree days accumulated in a known March thaw anomaly (Maritimes Provinces) .

A largely developmental year ( 1 99 1 -92) was spent developing photographic digitization techniques for monitoring bud expansion and xylem cavitation. A dye infusion technique was also perfected to stain conductive xylem after treatment and after a period of recovery from xylem cavitation and growth.

The winter of 1 992-93 a similar experiment yielded a gradation of dieback effects on the treated birch from no visible effects to complete mortality. The xylem conductivity study also provided much variation in effects , due to xylem cavitation both in initial effects after freezing and after a recovery period. These effects correlated with the die back. Effects of shoot thaw with root thaw produced the most damaging effects although shoot thaw by its self did produce dieback. This die back occurred without much indication of bud swell ing or growth. Regression models are being developed to explain variation in responses of the xylem, bud swelling and dieback. An in depth analysis of the data is in progress for inclusion in a manuscript for publication in 1 995. A manuscript on the methodology and initial results has been prepared for submission to the I BFRA proceedings.

A similar experiment was conducted in the winter of 1 993-94 using sugar maple seedlings famil ies. I t was anticipated that the tolerance of this species to andardized winter thaw can be compared to birch. The winter of 1 993-1 994 was anomalous in that very low temperatures occurred with out snow cover prior to the experiment. This caused heavy mortality (95%) in the sugar maples under test although this was not apparent until the experimental exposures were complete. Analysis of the data wil l enable the parameterization of this lethal event on this sensitive species.

The experiment to be conducted in 1 994-95 is on two year yel low birch using a simi lar design as that used for paper birch . The object of this is to compare the response thresholds to those


- 1 . 39 -

of paper birch and to the conditions suspected of causing the 1 930 birch decline which occurred to both birch species.

The plants have been established in the garden plot and are undergoing natural hardening this fal l . Due the l imited number of plants that can be housed in the chambers and the importance of including a root thawed treatment. The ozone treatments were dropped from the design in favour of strengthening the data on effects thaw duration (growing degree days >4 C) in this species . This wil l al low more direct comparison of the responses of the birch species.

I t is anticipated that such parameters as response thresholds to duration of winter thaws and there boundary conditions would feed directly into cl imate models dealing with cl imate fluctuation to predict effects on forest health and composition.

Goals for 1 995/96:

1 . The analysis of the yellow birch treated this winter in terms of die back and losses in xylem c<;>nductivity d�e to cayitation will be continued during spring and summer.

2 . In itiate of a modelling exercise in collaboration with Dr. P . Arp and Dr. F. Meng. The objective of this work will be to produce a conceptual approach to a tree dieback model using the data produced so far and produce a prel iminary empirical model. This negotiation includes Dr. G. Robitialle who can provide information on mature trees.

3. The winter experiment will study ozone interactions on dieback responses to winter thaw using clonal material (cuttings) of paper birch. Using this material resolution of the ozone interactions with simulated winter thaw effects may be attempted. Ozone is known to interfere with carbon resource allocation to hardening processes in the fal l . The fumigations with ozone can be carried out with ease in the laboratory fumigation facilities at CFS-MR.

Any effects that ozone may have on dieback can be included in the model as a predisposing agent. The importance of including a possible predisposing agent is that more than temperature wil l change if the climate warms it has been stated that tropospheric ozone will l ikely increase due faster atmospheric chemistry reactions.

4 . Changes in xylem conductivity due to cavitation wil l also be determined .

5. The membrane integrity and freezing tolerance after ozone and winter thaw treatments will be carried out by Dr. L. Sheppard of Institute of Terrestrial Ecology, UK. Dr. Sheppard, has offered to collaborate if samples can be sent to her lab.

Goals for 1 996/97 and Beyond:

1 . Develop tree level models of induced dieback caused by simulated extreme cl imatic events (winter thaw) as a predisposing factor in declines of important species.

2 . Determine the influence of inciting factors such as ozone, UVB exposure and nitrogen deposition on die back responses to climatic events (winter thaw).


- 1 .40 -

3. Develop experimental approaches to investigate these multiple stresses on mature trees in the context of tree decline.


- 1 .41 -

PROJ ECT 14:

RESPONSES TO CLIMATE CHANGE OF WOODY TISSUE RESPIRATION (Lav igne, MR)

Most existing physiologically-based models of ecosystem carbon balance incorporate maintenance respiration with a single parameter. Moreover, most projections of ecosystem responses to climate change made with these models have had the value of the maintenance parameter remain constant during modelled stand development and modelled changes to climate. G iven that maintenance respiration can consumes approximately 20-80% of gross photosynthetic production, it is prudent to evaluate the assumptions inherent to the manner by which maintenance respiration is dealt with in ecosystem models . There is little information in the l iterature that can be used to evaluate whether maintenance respiration rates of existing trees will remain the same as climate changes. Also, the current knowledge of maintenance respiration suggests, but does not prove conclusively, that maintenance respiration rates change during stand development. Changes in maintenance respiration rate during stand development could have profound effects on the fates of stands if combined with changes in maintenance respiration rate resulting from climate change.

There is no fully satisfactory method available at present for estimating maintenance respiration. During the growing season respiration contributes to growth and maintenance. The l iterature suggests that maintenance respiration during the growing season occurs at a higher rate than during the dormant season, and therefore, respiration rates measured during the autumn may not be an accurate ind icator of maintenance respiration rate for the year. Therefore, a method of measuring or calculating maintenance respiration must be found before any improvements can be made on how maintenance respiration gets incorporated into ecosystem models.

The proportion of photosynthetic production consumed in respiration could increase in response to climate change. Total annual respiration wil l increase in response to lengthened growing seasons and to higher temperatures during the growing season, whereas photosynthesis will increase only in response to the longer growing season. Potential responses of respiration to cl imate change must be quantified before changes in the ratio of respiration to photosynthesis can be evaluated.

Objectives:

Determine the role of woody tissue respiration in ecosystem responses to global change by:

1 . Develop a method for measuring maintenance respiration rates of stems and branches during the growing season .

2. Determine values of parameters describing temperature responses of maintenance respiration for jack pine, black spruce and trembling aspen growing in a wide range of climates, and assess whether the maintenance respiration of these species will respond differently to climate change.

3. Incorporate respiration in physiological tree growth models.


- 1 .42 -


1 . Prepare a paper on the role of genetics in determin ing responses of respiration to changing climate.

a poster was presented at the IBFRA Conference, Boreal Forests and Global Change (Genetic Control of Stem Growth and Respiration among jack pine provenances from a north-south transect), and a paper is being prepared for submission to a journal.

2. Write a paper about variation of maintenance respiration rates during the growing season. results of anatomical measurements were completed this past summer. We plan to begin writing a paper in early 1 995.

3 . Compare respiration rates of balsam fir trees in Newfoundland to those in New Brunswick. a paper is in preparation.

4 . Measure respiration rates of all tree components at BOREAS sites. in collaboration with Mike Ryan of U .S . F .S . the respiration rates of stems, foliage and fine roots were measured at aspen, jack pine and black spruce sites in the southern and northern study areas, during I ntensive Field Campaigns 1 (late May to mid June), 2 (mid Ju ly to early Aug) and 3 (late Aug to mid Sept) . Respiration rates of woody components were also measured in late September, after I FC-3.

5. Compare respiration rates of jack pine, black spruce and aspen at northern and southern BOREAS sites.

data analysis wil l begin in late 1 994.

6. Contribute to carbon budget and ecophysiological modell ing of BOREAS and BFTCS. work wil l begin in late 1 994.

7 . Continue to evaluate the utility of radar for scal ing respiration measurements to stands and landscapes.

one paper has been accepted for publ ication and a second paper has been submitted. Field data for the northern New Brunswick study area has been analyzed, and prepared for testing relationships with remotely sensed data from the same region.


Participation in the field campaigns of BOREAS have been the highl ight of this year to date. We have collected , with Mike Ryan, what is probably the largest and most comprehensive set of data on woody tissue respiration. These data wi l l establish the role of respiration in determining the effects of cl imate change on ecosytem productivity in boreal forests. In addition, several unscheduled stUdies were conducted as the result of interaction with others participating in BOREAS. We did work on bark photosynthesis of aspen , and collected additional data in the old black spruce site of the southern study area in collaboration with the team from the University of Edinburgh. During the next 1 8 months additional collaborations will be established with the remote sensing and tower flux communities of BOREAS, and a number of papers will be written .


- 1 .43 -

Some success has been achieved in developing the use of radar to estimate the respiring biomass in ecosystems. It has been found that moderately accurate predictions of woody biomass can be made with ERS-1 SAR data after making topographic corrections. Results obtained to date are the most successfu l appl ication of ERS-1 SAR data.

Goals for 1 995/96:

1 . Continue involvement in BOREAS, primarily by writing papers.

2. Continue involvement in BFTCS by contributing to ecophysiological modell ing.

3 . Conduct a field experiment to determine the fates of respired CO2 , the sensitivity of respiration to moisture stress, and changes of maintenance respiration during the growing season.

4 . Design chambers to measure soil respiration for use with the gas handling system built to measure stem respiration.

5. Begin collaboration with Dave Holl inger, Harry Valentine and John Aber to study impacts' of climate change on the forests of northeastern North America. This collaborative effort might grow to include Gilles Robitail le.


1 . Complete work on stem respiration responses to cl imate change.

2. Continue work on soil and root respiration responses to climate change.

3. Continue involvement in BFTCS through modell ing and field studies.


- 1 .44 -

PROJECT 1 5:

BIOCHEMICAL COMPOUNDS AS INDICATORS OF STRESS AND THEIR INFLUENCE ON SOME KEY ECOLOGICAL PROCESSES

(Titus, NLR)

Natural stresses interact to determine the range of given species and hence site or ecosystem types. Climate change will alter these levels of stresses, and the magnitude of changes in temperature and moisture (and hence decomposition processes and site nutrient availabil ity) and the proximity of species to the edge of their present range will determine whether stresses on g iven species increase or decrease in any given location. While it is reasonable to assume that there will be a zone at the edge of present species ranges in which lethal l imits are exceeded , there wil l also be a zone in which sUb-lethal stress-induced effects on trees affects tree vigour, and also has a concurrent effect on ecological processes such as soil productivity, regeneration, and succession'. If biological indicators of sub-lethal stress could be found that could be quantified through routine monitoring, then our predictive and modelling capabilities regarding impacts _of clim'!!te change on forest ecosystems would be greatly improved.

It is known that secondary metabol ite concentrations alter with environmental stresses, and these metabolites have been impl icated in a range of ecological processes, such as germination, allelopathy, herbivory, and soil and decomposition processes. By correlating concentrations of secondary metabolites with known environmental g radients, it should be possible to identify which compounds increase with increasing stress (and which do not) , and to then define the threshold levels at which stress in trees can be recognized before visual symptoms arise, analogous to carrying out fol iar sampling for testing for nutrient deficiencies in plantations. The resultant quantification of biochemical stress indicators in plant tissue may then be used for monitoring stress a result of changing environmental condit ions, or for monitoring stress in managed stands as an ind icator of the appropriateness of silvicultural treatments. Known concentrations of metabolites could also then be used in studies to determine environmental impacts of altered concentrations of metabolites on ecological processes.

The proposal thus has three concurrent thrusts: (i) development of novel analytical methodologies (NMR, PY-GC-MS , PY-HS) ; (ii) the correlation of levels of stress with concentrations of secondary metabolites, and (i i i) the determination of the effect of stress-induced compounds on ecological processes, The work will initial ly be l imited to a small number of species, and if successful wil l be expanded to other commercially or ecologically important species.

Objectives:

1 , to develop organic analytical methodologies for identification and quantification of polyphenols and related compounds;

2. to characterize the secondary metabolites present in the tissue of several key species ( in itially white birch, black spruce , balsam fir, jack pine);

3 . to determine the influence of moisture , nutrient and l ight stress gradients on concentrations of secondary metabolites;


- 1.45 -

4. to determine the impact of increased concentrations of secondary metabol ites on some key ecological processes (germination, soil microbial activity, soil nutrient availabil ity) .

Goals and Progress:

Project was discontinued at the end the 1 992/93 budget year.


- 1 .46 -

� PROJECT 1 6 :

O REST FLOOR DEVELOPMENT (Weber, NLR)

A shortcomings of present-day:terrestrial cl imate change models is a dearth of real , field-derived data to be used irn simulation runs. This type of data is, however, essential i f realistic projections are to be made on potential impacts of climate change on ecosystem processes in the boreal forest!)f Canada. One of the organizing agents in the boreal forest is fire . Predictions are for a fire lI!gime of increasing intensity and frequency due to drier fuels and longer fire seasons, respectively, but actual field data to model these projections are lacking.

Objectives:

The major objective of this stlIdy is to provide the modeller with an authentic, field-derived data set to be used in simulation runs dealing with the effect of climate change on ecosystem processes in a major boreal fcirest type such as jack pine. Field experimentation will also yield data that can be used in the simulation of the effect of a warmer and drier climate on forest floor fuel moisture conditions.

Goals and Progress: :

Project was discontinued at the end of 1 992/93 budget year.


- 1 .47 -

PROJECT 1 7 :

EFFECTS O F CLIMATE ANGE ON FIRE FREQUENCY IN THE SOUTHERN BOREAL FOREST

(Flannigan, Gilllllthier, PNFI ; Bergeron, Un. of Quebec at Montreal)

Climatic warming and its eftects on forest disturbance dynamics are presently a major concern. In the boreal forest, fire is :major d isturbance and a change in fire regime related to cl imatic warming might have a greatl!r impact on the forest than climatic warming per se. Based on results from climate models CMs), increases in the frequency of forest d isturbances, including fires have been paRulated. For Canada, recent studies have suggested increases in seasonal fire severity rating, ith simi lar increases in area burned, in a 2 X CO2 climate. Simulations have indicated1hat an increase in fire frequency will cause changes in forest composition and will accelemle the response rate of vegetation under cl imate change.

Whether or not it is related1D 1he greenhouse effect, an increase in temperature has already been observed in the nortlBn hemisphere since the end of the Little Ice Age. Although a decrease in fire frequencyias been reported since the beginn ing of the Little Ice Age (aroun� 1 600), the effect of increasmg temperature since the end of the Little Ice Age has proven difficult to document. We tawe recently published a 300-year fire history ( 1 688-1 988), from the southwestern Quebec bOl1!Bl forest that showed an important decrease , starting about 1 00 years ago, in the number and extent of fires. This decrease in fire frequency is also associated with a long-term increase m1he mean ring width of eastern white cedar (Thuja occidentalis) in the same area. AgreementiEtween the standardized tree-ring chronology and fire years, together with a negative cam! lation with a drought index reconstructed from the 1 9 1 3-1 987 period, showed that the dE!!!Clease in fire frequency may be related to a reduced frequency of drought periods since the end of the Little Ice Age.

The contradictory results l:Je.tween predicted and observed effects of warming on fire frequency might suggest that the effects of the warming vary spatial ly. This suggests that the fire regime is not solely dependent of temperature but that other factors such as period of drought may be critical. Finally, vegetation 1I!Sponses to these spatial variations of climate and d isturbance frequency may also vary SlJiitial ly.

The hypothesis is that the effects of warming on fire frequency vary along a latitudinal gradient from the southern to the norttlern boreal forest . The Little Ice Age climate in the boreal forest may have been under the influence of an atmospheric circulation bringing a greater frequency of cold and dry polar air masses. During this period fire frequency may have been relatively homogeneous throughout the boreal forest. With the end of the Little Ice Age and the migration of the polar front towards higher latitudes, the southern fringe of the boreal forest could have seen a greater penetration :of warm and humid air masses, a situation conducive to a reduced frequency of drought periods. Whereas in the northern boreal forest the fire frequency may be relatively unchanged under.the continuing influence of polar air masses. Additionally, we hypothesize that the southern fringe of the boreal forest will be the one of the first areas to observe changes in species composition because of the change in climate and fire regime.


- 1 .48 -

Objectives:

1 . Test the hypothesis that the effects of warming on fire frequency vary along a latitudinal gIJiljient by reconstructing fire history and past climates (by the means of c.i!I:ldracl im ology) for an area of about 20,000 km2 in the boreal forest from the 480 N t SD-. N latitude, along the Quebec-Ontario border (from the 780 30' W to 790 30' W longitude).

2 . InEstigate fire susceptibil ity along a latitudinal gradient by studying the relationship of fire ca:urrence to l ightning activity and the Canadian Forest Fire Weather I ndex (FWI) System.

3 . "ess the effects of changes i n the fire frequency o n the forest mosaic composition at the landscape level .

Goaia and Progress for 1 994/95:

1 . �rse sampling ( 1 sample per 1 00 km2) for the fire history reconstruction. First analysis _ production of the preliminary stand in itiation map.

During the 1 994 field season, 200 sites were sampled for a complete coverage of the territory.

2 . CD1lection of data on recent cl imate, l ightning discharges and recent fire occurrence. Muttivariate analysis of weather data and spatial analysis of l ightning frequency with respect tofire occurrence.

Available data were compiled and is in the process of being transferred to a G IS system. Northern locations were found for two weather stations.

3 . CJ:)'llection of samples for the dendroclimatological study. Production of indexed tree-ring cnr:onology and assessment of spatial heterogeneity. Climatic reconstructions .

Cores were collected for jack pine and black spruce on three sites ( 480 , 480 30' and 490 30') . Two additional sites (490 and 500) wil l be sampled this fal l .

4 . PrEliminary sampling of the vegetation composition . For half of the 200 sites we were able to find markers of the last two fires. Presence and

• absence of the tree species was recorded on these sites .

Highights of Progress to Date:

Simulations predicting components of the FWI for North America were performed for the IxC02 and 2xC02 scenarios. Predictions are in agreement with the observed decrease in fire frequency observed in our study region ( Bergeron and Archambault, 1 993). Resu lts will be presented at the International Boreal Forest Research Association Meeting and will also be submitted for publication.

A collaborative research agreement between the Prince Albert Model Forest (PAMF) , Tom Moore (PNFI) and ourselves is being negotiated in order to study the natural fire regime and foresf succession in the PAMF. We see this as an opportunity to extend our study in fire frequency and cl imate change in the southern boreal forest to a drier region for comparison with


- 1 .49 -

our current work. Additional ly, this al lows us to l ink our study with research in the BFTCS and the PAMF.

Contact has been made with the Lake Abitibi Model Forest (LAMF) in regards to the reconstruction of the fire history. We have met with the LAMF people this fall and have submitted a proposal to reconstruct the fire history in the LAMF.

The dendroclimatological work is being performed in collaboration with Annika Hofgaard who has a NSERC I nternational Fellowship at UQAM. Annika is from the Swedish University of Agriculture Science.

Goals for 1 995/96:

1 . Small scale sampling for the fire history. Production of the stand initiation map.

2. Spatial zonation of the area in regards to the fire climate.

3. Publication of aendroclimatological work.

4 . Forest composition sampling wi l l be undertaken in selected areas where the interval between successive fires vary. Sampling will also be done on recent burns (after 1 972).

5. Obtain fire history for the Prince Albert Model Forest.

Goals for 1 996/97 and Beyond:

1 . Production and field verification of the fire history map. Fire frequency analyses.

2. Assessment of the spatiotemporal variation in fire frequency using dendroclimatological and fire climate results.

3 . Production of past-fire regeneration maps, spatial analysis and comparisons of tree regeneration with changes in cl imate and fire regime.

4 . Generalization of the results and prediction for the southern boreal forest and adjacent vegetation zones.

5. Relate fire regime to cl imate in the PAMF. Assess the impact of cl imate change to the fire regime. Compare with results from eastern Canada.


- 1 .50 -

PROJECT 1 8 :

COMMUNICATIONS (Malhotra, NWR)

Nationally, the perceived destruction of our forests is of strong concern to the general public. There is additional concern that forested land wil l turn into grasslands because of g lobal warming. Al l this indicates a need for rel iable information for scientists , forest resource managers, and the public. If we can provide this kind of information, it will add further credibil ity to the research being done by the Canadian Forest Service .

Objectives:

To inform the general public, media and other target audiences about the work of our climate change scientists.

Goals and Progress for 1 994/95 :

1 . Write and produce CFS climate change newsletter twice a year. Produced and distributed one issue of Impact, our climate change newsletter; Prepared another issue of Impact, ready for distribution.

2. Organize a media tour of BOREAS project sites. Organized media tour of the BOREAS aspen site in Prince Albert National Park.

3 . Advise the media on scientific achievements of cl imate change scientists. Wrote and distributed two news advisories on Ian Campbell 's work (Project #4);

4. Prepare and disseminate media advisories on BOREAS, NATO, and I BFRA conferences, and other research projects to highlight cl imate change research.

Wrote and distributed a news advisory on BOREAS Researchers. Produced advisories the NATO Advanced Research Workshop; Participated in the organization and running of the workshop; Prepared l iterature handouts for the IBFRA conference and facilitated press, television and radio interviews.

5. Write article on one aspect of climate change research to circulate to community newspapers.

Article was produced and picked up by at least six community newspapers in the region.

Highlights of Progress to Date:

Organized a media tour of the BOREAS aspen site in Prince Albert National Park. Received very good media attention, locally and nationally, for BOREAS and our scientists. Communications student in Prince Albert office wrote an article on CFS biometry work (from student involvement angle) that wi l l be publ ished in the Saskatchewan Forestry Association newsletter. Two other CFS climate change research articles appeared in DirectLines (CFS Saskatchewan newsletter) . Media advisories with background information were prepared for


- 1 .51 -

NAID Advanced Research Workshop in Banff and I BFRA conference in Saskatoon. Some artides have been completed for next IMPACT newsletter to come out in October. Contact has beenmade with a freelance fi lm maker to attend IBFRA conference to shoot video footage of conference and interview scientists. Contact has been made with Eve Savory from CBC National to attend and conduct interviews at IBFRA conference. Prepared a table top d isplay for I BFRA conference.

Go. for 1 995/96:

1 . ite and produce CFS Climate change newsletter twice a year.

2 . AI::Ivise the media on scientific achievements of cl imate change scientists.

3 . Ptroduce brochures, or assist in their productIon , on specific aspects of the climate change ;'J1Dgram.

,.


- 1 . 52 -

PROJECT 1 9:

BOREAS BIOMETRY AND ALLOMETRY MEASU REMENT PROGRAM (Apps, Campbel l , Hogg, Hall iwel l , NWR; Lavigne, MR; Penner, PNFI)

Objectives:

1 . To provide Core Science measurements as part of CFS Commitment to BOREAS I nfrastructure by:

performing allometric measurements and other biophysical properties of characteristic forest stand types (black spruce, jack pine, and trembling aspen) completing the existing biometry measurements survey of 60+ sites at the BOREAS northern and southern study areas performing the soil chemical and physical-analysis of biometry and al lometry site soil samples

2. To extend these same measurements to the BFTCS (Boreal Forest Transect Case Study) to provide long-term data sets for the CFS climate change project.


1 . Completion of all field work during the summer field campaign of 1 994. A team of 8 students, BOREAS Field Officer (BFO) and BOREAS field techn ician were hired Biometry measurements (overstory, understory, soils and detritus) were completed at more than 1 00 sites

2 . Entry of 1 994 field data into database . All 1 993 and 1 994 data were entered into databases Three reports prepared providing deta i ls of 1 ) locations and description 2) Overstory and understory and 3) Soils and detritus and in various stages of publication .

3 . Completion and publication of reports on soil and vegetation characteristics . Three co-authored reports were prepared and submitted to BORIS ( BOREAS information system). All three are being prepared as Information Reports: 1 . BOREAS Biometry and Auxiliary Sites; Locations and Descriptions. 2 . BOREAS Biometry & Auxiliary Sites: Overstory and Understory Data 3. BOREAS Biometry & Auxiliary Sites: Soils and Detritus Data

4. Development of biomass regression equations based on data collected. This goal was dropped to avoid dupl ication of effort when allometry measurements contracts were independently establ ished by NASA BOREAS project office with University of Wisconsin at Madison. However, the CFS team provided extensive field support for the University of Madison effort.

Added Goals for 1 994/95:

5 . Participate i n the BOREAS Science Conference in Wil l iamsburg , Virgin ia .


- 1 . 53 -

Drs. David Hall iwel l and David Price represented TE-1 3 and the biometry and infrastructure team at the science conference. (Drs. Hogg and Lavigne also participated

;.as members of TE-6 and Dr. R. Stewart as a member of the BOREAS Canadian , Coordinating committee) .

6 . Piepare poster and manuscript for the IBFRA conference Boreal Forest and Global Change - <;A poster on the Biometry program and results was prepared and presented at the

" :l BFRA conference and an extended abstract published in the Conference book of -'abstracts .

- A manuscript "A biometric survey of the central Canadian boreal forest" has been prepared for submission to peer-review for the journal Water, Air and Soil Pol/ution.

Highlights of Progress to Date:

The biometry data collected by CFS teams over the past two years makes a very valuable addition to the BOREAS Information System database and provides essential ecological data for ,.".,y BOREAS researchers In addition the database will serve the CFS Boreal Forest Transect Case Study as a unique test and val idation data set of forest stand types across the ecoctimatic gradient represented by the BFTCS. The data set is unique in that it includes such divelE data as soils, moisture , understory vegetation , woody debris, and tree characteristics, thereay providing an invaluable reference source for other BOREAS participants and for the ongoing BFTCS.

Three major reports have been prepared (presently as authored fi le reports, but is being revised as Information reports) represents a sign ificant undertaking involving many participants. It is also si:gnificant that a journal submission is already in preparation . Several (>3) presentations haveJ)een made at different scientific meetings.

Goals for 1 995/96:

Project completed on schedule.

Green Plan Funding Requested for 1 996/97 : None


Publication Year

APPEN DIX 2

CANADIAN FOREST SERVICE

CLIMATE CHANGE PUBLICATIONS

1 987 TO PRESENT

1 995 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2. 1

1 994 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 .2

1 993 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.6

1 992 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 . 1 0

1 99 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 . 1 1

1 990 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 . 1 2

1 989 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 . 1 3

1 988 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 . 1 4

1 987 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 . 1 4

- 2 . 1 -

This list contains references to all journal articles, book chapters, papers in conference proceedings, printed abstracts and reports published by Canadian Forest Service staff on the subject of climate change. In order to present the current situation, papers in the process of being published are also shown , and noted as follows:

in press = paper accepted by a journal, or a conference proceedings, but not yet printed, in review; submitted = paper in the peer review process by a journal or conference proceedings editor.

Bergeron, Y. and Flannigan, M.D., 1 995. Predicting the effects of climate change on fire frequency in the southeastern Canadian boreal forest. In: "Boreal Forests and Global Change" and "Water, Air and Soil Pollution, Special Edition", Proc. IBFRA COAference, Sept. 25-30, 1 994, Saskatoon, SK. Kluwer Academic Publ. (submitted).

Boutin, R. and Robitaille, G. , 1 995. Enhanced soil n itrate losses under mature sugar maples affected by experimentally induced deep frost. Can. J . For. Res. ( in press).

Campbell , I .D. , 1 995. Power function for interpolating dates in recent sediment. Journal of Palaeolimnology (in review).

Campbell , C., Campbell, I .D., 1 995. 4000+ yr high-resolution proxy stream discharge record from the northern margin of the North American Great Plains. Earth and Planetary Science Letters (submitted).

Campbell, C. , Campbell, I .D., Blyth, C.B. and McAndrews, J.H., 1 995. Bison exterpation may have caused aspen expansion in western Canada. Ecography (in press) .

Campbell , I .D. and McAndrews, J .H. , 1 995. Charcoal evidence for Indian-set fires: discussion. The Holocene (in press).

Grewal, H., 1 995. Parent stand age and harvesting treatment effects on juvenile aspen biomass productivity. For. Chron. (in press).

Hogg, E.H. , and Hurdle, P.A. , 1 995. The aspen parkland in western Canada: a dry-climate analogue for the future boreal forest? In: "Boreal Forests and Global Change" and "Water, Ai r and Soil Pollution, Special Edition", Proc. IBFRA Conference, Sept. 25-30, 1 994, Saskatoon, SK. Kluwer Academic Publ. (submitted).

Robitaille, G. , Boutin, R, and Lachance, D. , 1 995. Effect of soil freezing and drought stress on sap flow and sugar content of mature sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.). Can. J. For. Res (in press).

Robitaille, G., Fleury, N., Chenevert, R, Bertrand , A. , and Boutin, R . , 1 995. Quebrachitol and abscisic acid, compounds related to freezing stress and maple dieback. In: "Boreal Forests and Global Change" and "Water, Air and Soil Pollution, Special Edition", Proc. IBFRA Conference, Sept. 25-30, 1 994, Saskatoon, SK. Kluwer Academic Publ. (submitted)

Solomon, A. M. , Nilsson, S. , Ravindranath, N.H . , Stewart, R , and Weber, M., 1 995. Chapter I I . B.7. Socioeconomic Impacts on Forestry. In : I PCC Second Assessment Report, 1 995.

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Stewart, R. B., and Maini, J . , 1 995. Forests and global carbon management: A policy perspective. In: Proceedings of the NATO Advanced Research Workshop "The role of global forest ecosystems and forest management in the global carbon cycle". Banff, AB, 1 2-1 6 September, 1 994. NATO, Scientific and Environmental Affairs Division (in press).

Trofymow, J.A., Preston, C. , and Prescott, C. , 1 995. Examination of some potential effects of litter quality on rates of decomposition in forested ecosystems. In : "Boreal Forests and Global Change" and "Water, Air and Soil Pollution, Special Edition", Proc. IBFRA Conference, Sept. 25-30, 1 994, Saskatoon , SK. Kluwer Academic Publ. (submitted).

Zoltai, S.C. and Martikainen, P.J., 1 995. The role of forested peatlands in the global carbon cycle. In : Proceedings of the NATO Advanced Research Workshop "The role of global forest ecosystems and forest management in the global carbon cycle". Banff, AB, 1 2-1 6 September, 1 994. NATO, Scientific and Environmental Affairs Division (in press).

Andreae, M.O., Fishman, J., Garstang, M., Goldammer, J.G., Justice, C.O., Levine, J.S., Scholes, RJ. , Stocks, B.J. , Thompson , A.M., and Van Wilgen, B.W., 1 994. Biomass burning in the global environment: First results from the IGACIBI BEX field campaign STAREfTRACE-A/SAFAR I-92. lIt Global Atmospheric-Biospheric Chemistry: The First IGAC Scientific Conference. R Prinn (ed.) , Plenum, New York, pp. 83-1 01 .

Apps, M.J. , and Kurz, W.A., 1 994. The role of Canadian forests in the global carbon balance. In : Carbon Balance of World's Forested Ecosystems, M. Kannien (ed.) , Proceedings of I PCC Workshop, 1 1 -1 5 May 1 992, Joensuu, Finland , Publications of the Academy of Finland, Helsinki, 1 994: 1 4-28.

Bertrand , A. , Robitaille, G. , Nadeau, P. , and Boutin, R, 1 994. Effects of soil freezing and drought stress on abscisic acid content of sugar maple sap and leaves. Tree Physiology (in press).

Boutin, R. , and Robitaille, G. , 1 994. Enhanced nitrate losses under mature sugar maples affected by experimental ly induced deep frost. Plant and Soil (submitted).

Cahoon, D. R , Stocks, B.J . , Levine, J.S. , Cofer, W.R, and Pierson, J.M., 1 994. Satellite analysis of the severe 1 987 forest fires in northern China and southeastern Siberia. J. Geophys. Res (in press).

Campbell, C., Campbell , 1 .0. , and Hogg, E .H. , 1 994. Lake area variability across a climatic and vegetational transect in southeastern Alberta. Geographie physique et Quaternaire 48: 207-2 1 2.

Campbell , 1 .0 . , and Campbell, C., 1 994, The impact of Late Woodland land use in southern Ontario. Great Lakes Geographer 1 :21 -29.

Campbell , 1 .0 . , and Campbell , C., 1 994. Pollen preservation: experimental wet-dry cycles in saline and desalinated sediments. Palynology 1 8: 5-1 0.

Campbell , 1 .0 . , and Campbell, C., 1 994. Electron microprobe of a new late Holocene tephra in southern Alberta, Canada. Bul letin of Volcanology (submitted).

Campbell , 1 .0. , and Chmura, G.L., 1 994. Pollen distribution in the Atchafalaya River, U SA. Palynology 1 8: 55-65.

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Caya, D. , Laprise, A., and Giguere, M. , 1 994. Preliminary results with the Canadian RCM. Research Activities in Atmospheric and Oceanic Modelling, WMO.TD, G.J. Boer (ed.) (in press).

Cofer, W. R. , Levine, J.S., Winstead , E.L., Cahoon, D.R., Pinto, J .P. , and Stocks, B.J. , 1 994. Source compositions of trace gases released during African savanna fires. J. Geophys. Res. (in review).

Cofer, W.A., Winstead, E .L. , Stocks, B.J., Cahoon, D.R. , Golammer, J.G., and Levine, J.S., 1 994. Composition of smoke from North American boreal forest fires. In: Fire in Ecosystems of Boreal Eurasia J.G. Goldammer, (ed.) (in review).

Cooper, J . , Herr, D.G., Duchesne, L.C. , and Reader, A. , 1 994. The use of soil monoliths to model the effect of shading, wildfire and moisture regimes on seed germination. PNFI technical report (in press).

Cox, A.M., 1 994. Responses of eastern Canadian trees to aspects of physical climate. In: "Weather or Not", Proc. P.E. 1 . Climate Advisory Committee Seminar. North River, P.E. I . . April 7 1 994, pp. 57-63.

Cox, A.M. and Magasi L.P. , 1 994. Atmospheric variables and the condition of Fundy white birches. Proc. Environmental workshop, St. Andrews N.B. March 1 994. AES occasional publ ication series (in press).

Duchesne, L.C. , 1 994. Fire and biodiversity in temperate ecosystems. In: Biodiversity in temperate ecosystems. T.J. Boyle and C.E. B. Boyle, (eds.). Nato ASI Series Vol I 20. Springer- Verlag, New York. pp. 247-263.

Duchesne, L.C., and Gauthier, S. , 1 994. The theoretical age-class distribution of white and red pine forests in the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence Forest Region. For. Chron. (submitted).

Flannigan, M.D. and Woodward, F . I . , 1 994. Red pine abundance: current climatic control and responses to future warming. Can. J. For. Res. 24: 1 1 66-1 1 75.

Fleming, A.A., and Tatchell , G.M., 1 994. Shifts in the flight periods of British aphids: a response to climate warming? In: Insects in a Changing Environment, A. Harrington and N . E. Stork, (eds.), Academic Press, London, U.K. (in press).

Fleming, R.A., and Shoemaker, C.A., 1 994. Validation of large scale process-oriented models for managing natural resource populations: a case study. In: Predictability and Nonlinear Modeling in Natural Sciences and Economics. J. Grasman and G. van Straten (eds.), Kluwer, Dordrecht, The Netherlands. pp. 1 38-1 48.

Firescan Science Team, 1 994. Fire in Boreal Ecosystems of Eurasia: First results of Bor Forest Island Fire Experiment, Fire Research Campaign Asia-North (FI RESCAN). Int. J . World Resources Rev. (in press).

Fosberg, M.A., Stocks, B.J . , and Lynham, T.J . , 1 994. Risk analysis in strategic planning: fire and climate change in the boreal forests . .!It Fire in Ecosystems of Boreal Eurasia, J.G. Goldammer (ed.) (in review) .

Franklin, S.E., Lavigne, M.B., Hunt, E.A. , Jr., and Wilson, B.A., 1 994. Empirical relations between balsam fir (Abies balsamea) forest stand conditions and ERS-1 SAR data in western Newfoundland. Can. J . Remote Sensing 20:1 24-1 30.

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Franklin, S.E. , Lavigne, M.B. , Hunt, Jr. , E.R. , Wilson, B.A., Peddle, D.R. , McDerm id, G.J. , and Giles, P.T., 1 994. Topographic dependence of synthetic aperture radar imagery. Computers and Geosciences (in press).

Goyette, S., and Laprise, R . , 1 994. FIZ-2: a multi-column, semi-prognostic, thermodynamic RCM. Research Activities in Atmospheric and Oceanic Modelling, WMO.TD, G.J. Boer (ed .) ( in press).

Halsey, L.A., Vitt, D.H. , and Zoltai, S.C. , 1 994. Disequilibrium response of permafrost in boreal continental western Canada to climate change. Climate Change (in press).

Herr, D. , and Duchesne, L.C., 1 994. Effect of water regime, cover, organic horizon thickness, and ashes on jack pine seedling emergence. Forest Ecology and Management (submitted) .

Herr, D . G , and Duchesne, L.C., 1 994. Effect of organic horizon thickness, shading, ashes and watering regime on red pine seed emergence. Can. J. For. Res. (submitted).

Herr, D., Duchesne, L.C., Tellier, R., and McAlpine, R.S., 1 994. Effect of wildfire on the ectomycorrhizal infectivity of a forest soil . IntI. J. Wildland Fire 4: 95-1 02.

Hogg , E.H. , 1 994. Climate and the southern l imit of the western Canadian boreal forest. Can. J. For. Res. 24: 1 835-1 845.

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Hogg, E.H. , 1 994. Temporal scaling of climate and the forest-grassland boundary in western Canada. I U FRO Workshop Proceedings, Interscale relationships within forest-atmosphere processes, August 25-26, 1 994, Memorial University Press, St. John's, Nfld.

Hogg , E.H. , 1 994. An arctic-alpine flora at low elevation in Kootenay National Park, B.C. Canadian Field-Natural ist 1 07: 283-292.

Hogg, E.H. , 1 994. Predicting climate change impacts on the western Canadian boreal forest. Program and Abstracts, Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, 28th Congress, May 30 to J une 3, 1 994, Ottawa, p. 71

Hogg, E.H. , Maimer, N., and Wallen, B., 1 994. Microsite and regional variation in the potential decay rate of Sphagum magellanicum in south Swedish raised bogs. Ecography 1 7: 50-59.

H ughes, R.N. and Cox, R.M. , 1 994. Effects of acid fog and temperature on reproductive processes of two birch species: in vivo simulations. J . Environ. Qual. 23:686-692.

Kuhri, P. and Zoltai, S.C., 1 994. Past cl imate change and the development of peatlands: an Introduction. J . Paleolimnology 1 2: 1 -2.

Leduc, A., Bergeron, Y. and Gauthier, S., 1 994. Predicting Natural Forest Mosaic dynamics in heterogeneous landscape: An empirical model for north-western Quebec. Fou rth National Workshop on Landscape Ecology in Land-Use Planning Methods and Practise. Laval University, 1 -3 June 1 994. (in press).

U, C. and Apps, M.J . , 1 994. Effects of contagious disturbances on forest temporal dynamics. Ecological Modelling (submitted) .

Kasischke, E.S., Christensen , N.L., and Stocks, B.J., 1 994. Fire, global warming, and the mass balance of carbon in boreal forests. Ecol. Appl. (in press) .

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Kurz, W.A., and Apps, M.J . , 1 994. The carbon budget of Canadian forests: A sensitivity analysis of changes in disturbance regimes, growth rates, and decomposition rates. Environmental Pollution 83:55-61 .

Kurz, W.A., Apps, M.J., Beukema, S.J., and Lekstrum, T., 1 994. Twentieth century carbon budget of Canadian forests. Abstract in Proc. of 4th International CO2 Conference, Carquerianne, France, 1 993. Tellus B (in press).

Kurz, W.A., Apps, M.J., Stocks, B.J . , and Volney, W.J.A., 1 994. Global climatic change: disturbance regimes and biospheric feedbacks of temperate and boreal forests. In: 'Biospheric feedbacks in the global climate system: wil l the warming speed the warming?' G. Woodwell (ed. ) . Oxford University Press, New York (in press) .

Preston, C., Trofymow, J.A. and Sayer, B., 1 994. Characterization of litterfall by C-1 3 N M R . Presentation and abstract. Soil Science Society of America Meetings, November 1 4-1 8, 1 994. Seattle, WA (in press) .

Price, D.T., Apps, M.J. , Kurz, W.A., Wesbrook, M., and Curry, R.S., 1 994. A model forest model: steps towards detailed carbon budget assessment of boreal forest ecosystems. World Resource Review 6(4): 461 -476.

Robitaille, G. , Boutin, R. , Lachance, D. , Bertrand, A., and Fleury, N. , 1 994. Effects of soil freezing on mature sugar maple health. 1 6th International Meeting for Specialists in Air Pollution Effects on Forest Ecosystems, "Air Pollution and Multiple Stresses" , Sept. 7-9, 1 994. Fredericton , New Brunswick, Canada (in press).

Stocks, B.J . , and Lynham, T.J. , 1 994. Fire weather cl imatology in Canada and Russia. In : Fire in Ecosystems of Boreal Eurasia. J.G. Goldammer, (ed.) (in review) .

Stocks, B.J. , Cahoon, D.R. , Levine, J.S., Cofer, W.R., and Lynham, T.J. , 1 994. Major 1 992 fires in central and eastern Siberia: satellite and fire danger measurements. In: Fire in Ecosystems of Boreal Eurasia. J.G. Goldammer, (ed.) (in review).

Stocks, B.J . , Van Wilgen, B.w., Trollope, W.S.w., McRae, D.J . , Weirich, F. , and Potgieter, A. L. F. , 1 994. Fuels and fire behavior dynamics on large-scale savanna fires in Kruger National Park, South Africa. J. Geophys. Res. (in review).

Wilson, B.A., Lavigne, M.B. , and Franklin, S.E. , 1 994. Estimating structural characteristics of balsam fir stands using ERS-1 SAR macro-scale texture. International Journal of Remote Sensing (submitted).

Woodwell, G.M., Mackenzie, F., Apps, M.J., Houghton, R.A., and Gorham, E., 1 994. Wil l the warming feed the warming? .In; 'Biospheric feedbacks in the global climate system: will the warming speed the warming?'. G. Woodwell (ed.). Oxford University Press, New York (in press).

Zoltai, S.C., 1 994. Permafrost in peatlands of western Canada during the Holocene warm period 6000 years ago. Geographie physique et Quaternaire (in press).

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Apps. M.J. , 1 993. N BIOME: A biome-Ievel study of biospheric response and feedback to potential climate changes. World Res. Rev. 5(1 ) , 41 -65.

Apps, M.J . , 1 993. Northern forests and global C cycles in a changing environment. In: Report of the third tec nical meeting on natural sources and sinks of greenhouse gases. 20-22 Apri l , 1 993, Downsview. Atmospheric Environment Service pp.59-62.

Apps, M.J . , Kurz, W.A. , Luxmoore, R.J . , Nilsson, L.O. , Sedjo, R.A., Schmidt, R . , Simpson, L.G., and Vinson, T.S. , 1 993. Boreal forests and tundra. Water, Air and Soil Pollution 70:39-53.

Apps, M .J . , Kurz, W.A., and Price, D.T. , 1 993. Estimating carbon budgets of Canadian forest ecosystems using a national scale model. In: Carbon cycling in boreal forests and sub-arctic ecosystems. T.S. Vinson and T.P. Kolchugina (eds.). Proc. of International Conference, Corval l is, Oregon, 8-1 2 Sept., 1 99 1 . US EPA Office of Res. and Dev. Report EPA 600R-93 084, Washington, D.C., pp. 243-252.

Benton, R. , 1 993. Forest sector study report. In: Mackenzie Basin I mpact Study. Interim Report #1 , S. Cohen (ed.) , Environment Canada. Downsview, ON. pp. 1 05-1 07.

Bergeron, G., Laprise, R., and Caya, D., 1 993. The dynamical and numerical formulation of MC2 (Mesoscale Compressible Community Model). Research Note. 1 50 p.

Boutin , R. , et Robitaille, G., 1 993. Modification de la composition chimique de I 'eau du sol a la suite du deperissement induit experimentalement in situ par Ie gel des racines. Comptes rendus du colloque "La recherche sur Ie deperissement: un premier pas vers Ie monitoring des fOrt3tS" . M FO, Que. pp. 209-222.

Campbell, I .D . , and McAndrews, J .H. , 1 993. Forest disequilibrium caused by rapid Little Ice Age cooling. Nature. 366:336-338.

Campbell, I . D . , and Campbell , C., 1 993. Pre-European horticultural impact on the forest landscape and forest succession of southern Ontario, Canada. ArchNotes 93-4: 1 2-1 7.

Campbell, I .D . , 1 993. CAN PLOT: A FORTRAN program for plotting pollen (and other) data and a short introduction to Postscript code. International Quaternary Association Commission for the Study of the H olocene Working Group on Data Handling Methods Newsletter 1 0: 1 7-1 8.

Cihlar, J.C. and Apps, M.J . , 1 993. Carbon budgets and successional dynamics of Canadian vegetation. In: Carbon cycling in boreal forests and sub-arctic ecosystems. T.S. Vinson and T.P. Kolchugina (eds.). Proceedings of International Conference, Corvallis, Oregon, 8-1 2 September, 1 991 . US EPA Office of Res. and Dev. Report E PA 600R-93/084, Washington, D.C., pp. 2 1 5-220.

Cofer, W. R . , Levine, J.S., Winstead, E.L. , Stocks, B.J., Cahoon, D.R. , and Pinto, J.P. , 1 993. Trace gas emissions from tropical biomass fires: Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico. Atmos. Environ. 27A( 1 2) : 1 903-1 907.

Duchesne, L.C., 1 993. Fire and biodiversity in temperate ecosystems. In: Biodiversity in temperate ecosystems., T. Boyle, (ed.). Springer-Verlag, New York.

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Duchesne, L.C., and McAlpine, R.S., 1 993. Effect of prescribed burning and clear-cutting on Carabid beetle biodiversity in a jack pine forest. Canadian Forest Service, Petawawa National Forestry Institute, Chalk River, ON. Technical Report 1 6.

Fleming, R.A., and Tatchell, G.M. , 1 993. Long term trends in aphid flight phenology consistent with global warming: Methods and some preliminary results. In: Individuals, Populations and Patterns. S.R. Leather, A.D. Watt, NAC. Kidd, and N. Mills (eds.), Intercept, Andover, U . K. ( in press).

Foster, N.W., Morrison, I .K., Hazlett, p.w., Hogan, G.D. , and Salerno, M. I . , 1 993. Carbon and nitrogen cycling within mid and late-rotation jack pine. Presented at North American Forest Soils Conference, Gainesville, Florida.

Gingerich, J . , and Hendrickson, 0., 1 993. The theory of energy return on investment: A case study of whole tree chipping for biomass in Prince Edward Island. Forestry Chronicle 69(3):300-306.

Grewal, H . , 1 993. Modelling forest productivity of the boreal forest in west-central Canada under climate change conditions. In : " Forest Growth Models and Their Uses", C.-H . Ung (ed.) Proc. of International Conference, Quebec City, Quebec, 1 8-1 9 Nov. 1 993. Natural Resources Canada, C.F.S. Modelling Working Group, Quebec, 1 993. pp. 240-250.

Hall, F.G., Sellers, P.J . , Apps, M.J . , Baldocchi, D. , Cihlar, J. , Goodison, B., MargOlis, H . , and Nelson, A., 1 993. BOREAS: Boreal ecosystem-atmosphere study. I .E.E.E. Geoscience and Remote Sensing Newsletter, March 1 993. pp. 9-1 8.

Harrington, J.B. , and Flannigan, M.D. , 1993. A model for the frequency of long periods of drought at forested sites in Canada. J . of Applied Meteorology 32: 1 708-1 71 6.

Hogg, E.H. , 1 993. Decay potential of hummock and hollow Sphagnum peats at different depths in a Swedish raised bog. Oikos 66: 269-278.

Hughes, R. N. and Cox, R.M. 1 993. Effects of fog and temperature on reproductive processes in two birch species: in vitro simulations with pollen. J. Environ. Qual. 22:799-804

Kauffman , J.B. , Stocks, B.J . , and 9 Others, 1 993. The role of humans in shaping fire regimes. In: Fire in the Environment: the Ecological, Climatic and AtmospheriC Chemical Importance of Burning in Wildland and Rural Landscapes. P.J. Crutzen and J .G. Goldammer (eds.). John Wiley and Sons. Sussex, England. pp. 375-388.

Kurz, W.A., and Apps, M.J . , 1 993. Contribution of northern forests to the global carbon cycle: Canada as a case study. Water, Soil and Air Pollution. 70:1 63-1 76.

Levine, J.S. , Cofer, W. R. , Cahoon , D.R. , Winstead, E.L., and Stocks, B.J., 1 993. Biomass burning and global change. In: World at Risk: Natural Hazards and Climate Change. R. Prinn and R. Bras (eds.). Amer. lnst. of Physics, New York, NY. pp. 1 3 1 -1 39.

Ueffers, V.J . , Macdonald , S.E. and Hogg, E.H. , 1 993. Ecology of and control strategies for Calamagrostis canadensis in boreal forest sites. Can. J. For. Res. 23:2070-2077.

McAndrews, J .H. and Campbell , 1 .0 . , 1 993. 6 ka mean July temperature in eastern Canada from Bartlein and Webb ( 1 985) pollen transfer functions: comments and il lustrations. In: Proc. Workshop, Proxy Climate Data and Models of the Six Thousand Years Before Present Time I nterval: The Canadian

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Perspective. A. Telka (Comp.). Canadian Global Change Progr. , Incid. Rep. Ser. No. I R93-3. pp. 22-25.

Nicholson, B. , Bayley, S.E. , Zoltai , S., Vitt, D.H. and Gignac, D. , 1 993. Terrestrial ecosystems/biomes. ill: Mackenzie Basin I mpact Study. Interim Report No. 1 . S.J. Cohen (ed.). Environment Canada, Downsview, ON. pp. 67-74.

Niederleitner, J . , Varem, T., Apps, M.J. , and Zoltai, S.C., 1 993. A preliminary description of the vegetation and soils at potential BOREAS tower sites. Report to BOREAS. Forestry Canada, Northwest Region , Northern Forestry Centre, Edmonton, Canada. 1 1 4 p.

Preston, C.M., Sayer, B.C., and Trofymow, J .A., 1 993a. When Autumn Leaves Are Falling . . . ( It 's time to assess litterfall quality by C-1 3 CPMAS NMR). Poster and note at MOOT VI (Ontario-Quebec NMR Group), Mont Saint-Saveur, Quebec. Sept. 25-26, 1 993.

Preston, C.M., Sayer, B.C., and Trofymow, J .A., 1 993b. Insights from C-1 3 C PMAS NMR: when a leaf falls in the forest, the real story can now be told. Poster and note at InSights from N M R - A symposium in honour of Myer Bloom. Dec. 5-8. Whistler, B.C.

Price, D.T., and Apps, M.J . , 1 993. Integration of boreal ecosystem-process models within a prognostic carbon budget model for Canada. World Res. Rev. 5( 1 ) , 1 5-3 1 .

Price, D.T. and Apps, M.J., 1 993. Use of forest ecosystem level model to investigate response of boreal landscape productivity to climate. In: Proceedings of Forestry Canada Modell ing Working Group Workshop. G.M. Bonnor (comp.), Pacific Forestry Centre, Victoria, B.C.1 993. pp. 1 0-1 7.

Price, D.T., Apps, M.J., Kurz, W.A., Prentice, I .C., and Sykes, M.T., 1 993. Simulating the carbon budget of the Canadian boreal forest using an integrated suite of process-based models. In : "Forest G rowth Models and Their Uses", C.-H. Ung (ed.) Proc. of International Conference, Quebec City, Quebec, 1 8- 1 9 Nov. 1 993. Natural Resources Canada, C.F.S. Modelling Working Group, Quebec, 1 993. pp. 25 1 -264.

Robitaille, G. , and Boutin , R., 1 993. Les extremes climatiques: Une cause du deperissement. Comptes rendus du colloque " La recherche sur Ie deperissement: un premier pas vers Ie monitoring des fort�ts". MFO, Que. pp. 223- 238.

Sampson, R.N. , Apps M.J., Brown S., Cole V.C., Downing J., Kauppi P., Ojima D.S., Smith T.M., Solomon A.M. , Twilley R.R. , and Wisniewski J . , 1 993. Terrestrial biospheric carbon fluxes: quantification of sinks and sources of CO2• Workshop Statement, Bad Harzburg, Germany, 1 -5 March 1 993. p. 1 5

Sampson, R.N. , Apps, M.J., Brown, S. , Cole, V.C., Downing, J. , Kauppi, P. , Ojima, D.S. , Smith, T.M., Solomon, A.M., Twilley, R.R. , and Wisniewski, J. , 1 993. Workshop Summary Statement: Terrestrial biospheric carbon fluxes: quantification of sinks and sources of CO2• Water, Air and Soil Pollution, 70:3- 1 5 .

Sellers, P.J., Hall, F.G., Apps, M.J., Baldocchi, D . , Cihlar, J.C., Den Hartog, J . , Goodison, B.G., Kelly, R.D. , Lettenmeir, D. , Margolis, H. , Nelson, A. , Ranson, J . , Roulet, N. , Ryan, M., 1 993. BOR EAS EXPLAN (Experiment Plan) Version 0 and Version 1 , (3 volumes). Published by NASA, Goddard Space Flight Centre, Greenbelt, Maryland.

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Stewart, R.B. , 1 993. I mplications of climate change for forestry management in Eastern Canada . .In: Proceedings of the U S/Canada Symposium "A Regional response to Global Climate Change: New England and Eastern Canada", May 1 8-2 1 , 1 993, Portland, Maine, USA. pp. 1 64-1 69.

Stewart, R.B. , 1 993. The Global Carbon Balance. Unpubl ished paper prepared for the Canadian Council of Forestry Ministers, 1 2 p.

Stewart, R.B. , and Brklacich , M . , 1 993. Climate change: Agricultural and forestry research activities in Canada. In: Proceedings of the Third Symposium On the Impact of Climatic Change on Agricultural Production in the Pacific Rim. Central Weather Bureau, Ministry of Transportation and Communications, ROC , Taiwan , May 1 5-22 , 1 993. pp. 89-1 07.

Stocks, B.J . , 1 993. Global warming and forest fires in Canada. For. Chron. 69(3):290-293.

Stocks, B.J . , and Trollope, W.S.W., 1 993. Fire managen:lent: principles and options in the forested and savanna regions of the world. In: Fire in the Environment: the Ecological, Climatic and Atmospheric Chemical Importance of Burning in Wildland and Rural Landscapes. P.J. Crutzen and J.G. Goldammer (eds.). John Wiley and Sons, Sussex, England. pp. 31 5-326.

Street, R.B., Stocks, B.J . , Maciver, D.C. , and Stewart, R.B. , 1 993. Impacts of climate change on Canadian Forests. In: Proceedings of the Fourteenth Commonwealth Forestry Conference, Malaysia, Sept. 1 993.

Trofymow, J .A. , 1 993. The Canadian intersite decomposition experiment (CI D ET): Long-term rates of leaf litter and wood decay. In: Proc. of Forest Ecosystem Dynamics Workshop, V.G. Marshall (comp.), Feb. 1 0-1 1 , 1 993. Forestry Canada, Pacific Forestry Centre, Victoria. FRDA Report 2 1 0.

Vitt, D.H. , Halsey, L.A., and Zoltai, S.C. , 1 993. The bog landforms of continental western Canada in relation to climate and permafrost pattern. Arctic & Alpine Research , 26: 1 : 1 3.

Wilson, B.A., Franklin, S.E. , Lavigne, M.B., Hunt J r. , E.R., 1 993. Estimating balsam fir forest stand conditions using ERS-1 data. In: Proc. 1 6th Canadian Symposium on Remote Sensing. Sherbrooke, Que. pp. 295-300.

Wotton, B. M . and Flannigan , M.D. , 1 993. Length of the fire season in a changing climate. For. Chron. 69: 1 87-1 92.

Zoltai , S.C. , 1 993. Peat as paleoclimate indicator. In: Proc. Workshop, Proxy Climate Data and Models of the Six Thousand Years Before Present Time Interval: Canadian Perspective. A. Telka (Comp.). Canad. Global Change Progr., Incid. Rep. Ser. No. I R93-3. 43 p.

Zoltai, S.C., 1 993. Cyclic development of permafrost in the peatlands of northwestern Alberta, Canada. Arctic & Alpine Research 25: 240-246.

Zoltai, S.C., 1 993. I mpact of climate change on Canadian peatlands. In: Mires and Man. Proc. 4th Meeting, Internat. Mire Cons. Group, Berne, Switzerland. pp. 3 1 5-31 9.

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Apps, M.J . , Kurz, W.A., and Price, D.T. , 1 992. Estimating carbon budgets of Canadian forest ecosystems using a national scale model. In : "Carbon cycling in Boreal Forests and Sub-arctic Ecosystems", T. Vinson and T. Kolchugina (eds.). Proceedings of International Conference, 1 -1 2 Sept., 1 991 , Corvallis, Oregon, pp. 241 -250.

Comite d'Orientation Scientifique du Projet NBIOME, Apps, M.J. , Baskerville, G. , Cihlar, J.C. (Chairman), Desjardins, A., Holling , C.S., Parkinson, D., Stewart, J.B. , 1 992. Projet d'observation et du modelisation des ecosystemes boreaux: Plan Scientifique. Societe Royale du Canada. Rapports Divers du Programme Canadien des Changements a l 'Echelle du Globe, No. I R93-1 , 67p (French translation of N BIOME entry).

Fleming, A.A., and Shoemaker, C.A.S. , 1 992. Evaluating models for spruce budworm-forest management: Comparing output with regional field data. Ecological Applications 2(4):460-477.

Fosberg, M.A. and Stocks, B.J . , 1 992. Global change and boreal forest ecosystems. In: Proc. Amer. Soc. of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, Aug. 3-7, 1 992, Washington, D.C.

Hogg, E.H., Ueffers, V.J. and Wein, A.W., 1 992. Potential carbon losses from peat profiles: effects of temperature, drought cycles and fire. Ecological Applications 2: 298-306.

Kurz, W.A., Apps, M.J. , Webb, T.M., and McNamee, P.J., 1 992. The carbon budget of the Canadian forest sector: Phase 1 . Information Report NOR-X-326. Forestry Canada, Northwest Region, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada, 93 p.

Levine, J.S., Cofer, W. A., Cahoon, D.R. , Winstead, E.L., and Stocks, B.J., 1 992. Biomass burning and global change. In: Global Biomass Burn ing: Impacts on Ecosystem Behaviour and Climate. World Space Congress, Sept. 3. 1 992, Washington, D.C.

N BIOM E Science Steering Committee: Apps, M.J . , Baskerville, G. , Cihlar, J.C. (Chairman), Desjardins, A. , Holling, C.S. , Parkinson, D. , Stewart, J.B. , 1 992. Northern biosphere observation and modell ing experiment. Science Plan. Royal Society of Canada, Ottawa, Canadian Global Change Program I ncidental Report Series No. I R93-1 , 61 p.

Pollard, D.F.W. , 1 992. The roles of natural areas in a changing climate. In: Proc. Symposium on the I mplications of Climate Change for Pacific Northwest Forest Management. G .Wall (ed). Dept. Geogr. Occasional Paper No. 1 5, U niv. Waterloo, Ont. pp. 1 75-1 83.

Pollard, D . F.W., and Peterson , C., 1 992. Workshop summary: Role of natural areas. In : Proc. Symposium on the Implications of Climate Change for Pacific Northwest Forest Management. G. Wall (ed) . Dept. Geogr. Occasional Paper No. 1 5, Univ. Waterloo, Ont. pp. 1 84-1 88.

Pollard, D.F.w., and Benton, R., 1 992. The status of protected areas in the Mackenzie Basin. U npub. Report to the Mackenzie Basin Interagency Study of Socia-Economic Impacts of Climate Change.

Timoney, K.P. , La Roi, G.H., Zoltai, S.C., and Robinson, A.L., 1 992. The high subarctic forest-tundra of northwestern Canada: Position, width, and vegetation gradients in relation to cli mate. Arctic 45: 1 -9.

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Trofymow, J.A., 1 992. The Canadian Intersite Decomposition Experiment (CI D En . Presentation and Abstract. Abstracts of Technical Papers, Environmental Soil Science, Aug. 8-1 3 , 1 992. University of Alberta, Edmonton. p. 48.

Trofymow, JA, 1 992. The Canadian Intersite Decomposition Experiment (CI D En . Presentation and Abstract. Technical Program. Canadian Institute of Forestry, Sept. 20-24, 1 992. Vancouver.

Apps, M.J., 1 991 . Application of a Carbon Budget Model to strategic planning for the effects of climate change on the Canadian forest sector. Abstracts of workshop: "Carbon cycling in boreal forests and sub-arctic ecosystems". 8-1 2 Sept. 1 991 , Corvallis OR

Apps, M.J . , 1 991 . Global and regional programs addressing climate change, and particularly programs focusing on boreal forests. Bull. Can. Soc. Zool., 22: 22-23.

Apps, M.J . , and Kurz, W.A., 1 991 . Assessing the role of Canadian forests and forest sector activities in the global carbon cycle. World Res. Rev. 3(4):333-344.

Flannigan, M.D. , and Van Wagner, C.E., 1 991 . Climate change and wildfire in Canada. Can. J. For. Res . . 2 1 :66-72.

Fleming, RA., 1 991 . Scale effects in developing models for integrated control: Lessons from a case study of the eastern spruce budworm. Med. Fac. Landbouww. Rijksuniv. Gent. 56(2a): 287-294.

Gignac, L. D. , Vitt, D .H. , Zoltai, S.C., and Bayley, S.E. , 1 991 . Bryophyte response surfaces along climatic, chemical, and physical gradients in peatlands of western Canada. Nova Hedwigia 53: 27-7 1 .

Hal l , J .P. , 1 991 . Forestry Canada and the climate change issue. Forests and Global Warming Conference. 1 2/6/1 991 . Arlington, Va.

Hall, J.P. , 1 991 . Carbon in forest ecosystems. In: CO2 Climate Report, Winter 1 991 , NO.91 -2 . Atmos. Environ. Serv., Downsview, ON.

Hal l , J .P. , 1 991 . Global climate change and the forest sector. In: Proceedings of the 72nd Annual Meeting of the Canadian Pulp and Paper Association - Woodland Section 1 99 1 . Preprint Book. March 26-27, 1 991 , Montreal, Quebec. Canadian Pulp and Paper Association, Montreal, Que. pp. E1 3-E1 6.

Hall, J .P. , and Addison, P.A., 1 991 . Response to air pollution: ARNEWS assesses the health of Canada's forests. Information Report D PC-X-34 Forestry Canada, Ottawa, 1 991 .

Hall, J.P. , and Addison, PA, 1 991 . Atmospheric change and forest health. Royal SOCiety Conference on Air Pollution and Health, June 6, 1 991 , Kingston, ON.

Harrington, J. , Kimmins, J., Lavender, D., Zoltai, S.C., and Payette, S., 1 991 . The effect of climatic change on forest ecology: Canada as an i l lustrative case. In: Forests, a Heritage for the Future. Proc. of the 1 0th World Forestry Congress, 1 7-26 Sept. 1 991 , Paris. Vol. 2, pp. 49-78.

Levine, J.S., Cofer. W.R, Winstead, E.L., Sebacher, D. I . , Rhinehart. RP. , Sebacher, S. , Cahoon, D.R. , Miller, J . E. , and Stocks, B.J . , 1 990. Fire and surface biogenic emissions. In : Proc. I nternat. Conf.

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on Global and Regional Environmental Atmospheric Chemistry. May 3-1 0, 1 989, Beijing, China. pp. 242-243.

Kurz, W.A. , Apps, M.J. , Webb, T. M. , and McNamee, P.J. , 1 99 1 . The contribution of biomass burning to the carbon budget of the Canadian forest sector: A conceptual model. In: Global Biomass Burning: Atmospheric Climatic and Biospheric I mplications. J .D. Levine (ed.) . M IT Press, Cambridge, Mass. pp. 339-344.

Kurz, W.A., and Apps, M .J . , 1 991 . Atmospheric carbon and Pacific northwest forests. In: Proc. Symposium on the I mplications of Climate Change for Pacific Northwest Forest Management. G. Wall (ed.) , Dept. of Geography, Publication Series, Occasional Paper No. 1 5, U niversity of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada, pp. 67-80.

Pollard, D. F.W. , 1 99 1 . Forestry in British Columbia: Planning for future climate today. For. Chron., 67(4) :336-341 .

Singh, T., and Wheaton, E.E. , 1 991 . Boreal forest sensitivity to global warming: implications for forest management in western interior Canada. For. Chron. 67(4): 342-348.

Stocks, B.J. , 1 991 . Global warming and forest fires: a cause for concern? In: 1 991 Ann ual Mtg. Northwest Fire Counci l , Dec. 4-6, 1 991 , Victoria, B.C. pp. 38-46.

Stocks, B.J., 1 99 1 . Trace gas emissions from Canadian forest fires. In: CO2 Climate Report No. 91 -2, Atmos. Environ. Serv., Downsview. Ont.

Trofymow, J.A., 1 99 1 . Old-growth forests and Canada's carbon balance. In: Old-Growth Strategy Background Papers. B.C. Ministry of Forests. Victoria, B.C. p. 1 4.

Zoltai, S.C., Singh, T., and Apps, M.J. , 1 991 . Aspen in a changing climate. In : "Aspen Management for the 21 st Century", S. Navratil and P.B. Chapman (eds.) . Proc. of Symposium, Nov. 1 9- 21 , 1 990 , Edmonton, pp. 1 43-1 52.

Zoltai, S.C. , and Vitt, D .H. , 1 991 . Holocene climatic change and the distribution of peatlands in western interior Canada. Quaternary Res. 33:231 -240.

Antonovsky, M .Y., Fleming, R.A., Kuznetsov, Y.A., and Clark, W.C. , 1 990. Forest-pest interaction dynamics: the simplest mathematical models. Theor. Popul. BioI. 37: 343-367.

Apps, M.J . , 1 990. Climate change and Canadian forests: part of the solution or part of the problem? In: Proc. Public Forum "Climate Change", Manitoba Climate Advisory Committee and Manitoba Branch of CWRA, Oct. 4, 1 990, Winnipeg, p. 1 4.

Cofer, W.R., Levine, J .S .. Winstead, E.L. , and Stocks, B.J . , 1 990. Chemistry of trace gas and paniculate emissions from Mediterranean, boreal, and wetlands fires. In: Proc. Chapman Conf. on Global Biomass Burning. March 1 9-23, 1 990, Williamsburg, Virginia.

Cofer, W. R . , Levine, J.S. , Winstead, E.L. , and Stocks, B.J . , 1 990. Gaseous emissions from Canadian boreal forest fires. Atmos. Environ. 24A: 1 653-1 659.

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Cox , R.M. , Spavold-Tims, J . , and Hughes, R.N. , 1 990. Acid fog and ozone: The possible role in birch deterioration around the Bay of Fundy, Canada. Water Air and Soil Pollution, 48:263-276.

Hall, J .P. , 1 990. Sustainable Development - Research in Forest Science. Paper presented at the 1 990 Annual Meeting, Ontario Professional Foresters Association. 21 -23 Feb., 1 990 , Sault Ste. Marie, ON.

Hal l , J .P . , 1 990. Effect of climate change on Canada's forests. Presentation to the Legislative Assembly of Ontario, Second session, 34th Parliament, Official Report of Debates (Hansard) Thursday, March 8 1 990, Select Committee on Energy.

Hall, J . P. , and Carlson , L.W., 1 990. Forestry Canada's perspectives on cl imate change. Paper presented at symposium - Climate Change: I mplications for Water and Ecological Resources, An International Workshop, 1 4-1 6 March, 1 990, Waterloo, Ontario.

Hall, J . P . , and contributors, 1 990. Forestry Canada strategic plan for research on climate change 1 990-1 995. Science and Sustainable Development Directorate, Forestry Canada, Hul l , Quebec. 1 4 p.

Hendrickson, O.Q., 1 990. How does forestry influence atmospheric carbon? For. Chron . , 66:469-472.

Levine, J.S. , Cofer, W.R., Winstead, E.L. , Hoffman, K.G. , and Stocks, B.J. , 1 990. The great China fire of 1 987: emission of trace gases to the atmosphere. In: Proc. Chapman Conf. on Global Biomass Burning. March 1 9-23, 1 990, Williamsburg, Virginia.

Singh, T., 1 990. Climate warming risks to hydrologic environment. Alberta Clim. Assoc. Gen. Cir. (Summer 1 990):5-6.

Stocks, B.J . , 1 990. Global warming and the forest fire business in Canada. In: Proc. Canada/US Symp. on the Impacts of Climatic Change and Variability on the Great Plains. Sept. 1 1 -1 3, 1 990, Calgary, Alberta. pp. 223-229.

Stocks, B.J. , 1 990. The extent and impact of forest fires in northern circumpolar countries. In: Proc.'

Chapman Cont. on Global Biomass Burning. March 1 9-23, 1 990, Williamsburg, Virginia.

Wein, R.W. and Hogg, E.H. , 1 990. Climate change moisture stresses on northern coniferous forests. In: Climate change - Implications for water and ecological resources, G. Wall and M. Sanderson (eds.). Dept of Geography Publication Series, Occasional Paper No. 1 1 , University of Waterloo. pp. 245-289.

Zoltai, S.C. , 1 990. Development of permafrost in peatlands of Subarctic Canada. Abstracts, 5th Internatl. Congr. Ecology, Aug. 23-30, 1 990. Yokohama.

Flannigan, M.D. , and Litwin, P .J. , 1 989. Relative humidity measurement for fire danger rating in Canada. Forestry Canada, Petawawa National Forestry Institute, Chalk River, Ontario. Inf. Rept. PI-X-93.

Swanson, R.H. , 1 989. Microcl imate in the establishment, growth, and development of man-made forests. In: Climate applications in forest renewal and forest production. D.C. Maciver, R.B. Street and A.N. Auclair (eds.). Proc. For. Cl im. '86, Nov. 1 7-20, 1 986, Geneva Park, Ori l l ia, Ontario. Can. For. Serv., Ottawa, Ontario, and Environ. Canada, Ottawa, Ontario. pp. 1 39-1 44.

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Trofymow, J.A., 1 989. Calculation , rationale and references for "fast" detritus production. Brief to Forestry Canada, EN FOR Workshop "The Annual Carbon Balance for the Forests of Canada," Dec. 4-6, 1 989, Harrison Hot Springs, B.C. 5p. North. For. Cen. , Edmonton, Alberta. 5 p.

Flannigan , M.D. and Harrington , J.B., 1 988. A study of the relation of meteorological variables to monthly provincial area burned by wildfire in Canada 1 953-80. J. of Appl. Meteor. 27:441 -452.

Singh, T., 1 988a. Current applied climatological research in Alberta. Proceedings of the Workshop and 1 1 th Annual Meeting of the Alberta Climatological Association, Feb. 24 1 987. Can . For. Serv. , North. For. Cent. , Edmonton, Alberta. Inf. Rep. NOR-X-294.

Singh, T. , 1 988c. Potential impacts of climatic change on forestry. Environ. Can . , Can. Comm. Ecol. Land Classif., Ottawa , Ontario. Newsl. 1 7:4-5.

Singh, T. , H igginbotham, K.O. , 1 988. An overview of the effects of climatic change and climatic variabil ity on forest vegetation in western Canada. In : The I mpact of Climate Variabil ity and Change on the Canadian Prairies. B.L Magill and F. Geddes, (eds.). Proc. Symp. Workshop, Sept. 9-1 1 , 1 987, Edmonton, Alberta. Alberta Environment, Edmonton , Alberta. pp. 255-273.

Stocks, B.J. and J in , J . , 1 988. The China Fire of 1 987: extremes in fire weather and behaviour. In: Proc. 1 988 Annual Mtg. Northwest Fire Council "Fire Management in a Climate of Change" , Nov. 1 4-1 5, 1 988, Victoria, B.C. pp. 67-79.

Swanson, R . H . , 1 988b. The effect of in situ evaporation on perceived snow distribution in partially clear-cut forest. In: Proc. 56th Ann. Meet. West. Snow Conf., B. Shafer, (ed.) . April 1 9-2 1 , 1 988, Kalispell , Montana. Colorado State Univ. , Fort Coll ins, Colorado. pp. 87-92.

Swanson , R . H . , 1 988c. Measurement of transportation (transpiration): a hydrological and physiological process. Natl. Res. Counc. Can . , Assoc. Comm. Hydrol., Ottawa, Ontario. Hydrol. Events 1 3(2) :9-1 0.

Swanson, R.H. , 1 988d. WRENSS: a model-based procedure for estimating the annual evapotranspiration from forested and partially forested catchments. Natl. Res. Counc. Can . , Assoc. Comm. Hydrol. , Ottawa, Ontario. Hydrol. Events 1 3(2):8-9.

Wheaton, E.E. , and Singh, T., 1 988. Exploring the implications of climatic change for the boreal forest and forestry economics of western Canada. Environ. Can. , Can. Clim. Cent. , Downsview, Ontario. Clim. Change Digest. CCD89-02.

Zoltai, S.C. , 1 988. Ecoclimatic Provinces of Canada and man-induced climatic change. Canadian Committee on Ecological Classification , Newsletter No. 1 7: 1 2-1 5.

Wheaton , E.E., Singh, T. , Dempster, R., Higginbotham, K.O., Thorpe, J.P., Van Kooten, G.C., and Taylor, J .S. , 1 987. An exploration and assessment of the implications of climatic change for the boreal forest and forestry economics of the prairie provinces and Northwest Territories. Phase One. Sask. Res. Counc., Saskatoon , Saskatchewan. SRC Tech. Rept. 2 1 1 .

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1994/95 11, 1995cfs.nrcan.gc.ca › bookstore_pdfs › 24600.pdf · 2010-12-22 · In response to this warming global precipitation patterns are also ... has increased in Canada and